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Sunday, November 13, 2011

2012 Roster Possibilities: Starting Rotation

Many people are saying that the Pirates are going into the 2012 season with four guaranteed starting pitchers, who are Jeff Karstens, James McDonald, Charlie Morton, and Kevin Correia.  While I’m not going to disagree that these four appear to be locks in the rotation, I will still say that I don’t think one of them should be a lock.  Karstens, McDonald, and Morton all deserve to be in the rotation, but I don’t think Correia should have a definitive spot.  He did make the All-Star team, but he didn’t deserve to make it.  The main reason why he did make it was that he was near the leaders in wins for the NL, so people thought he was warranted a spot.  However, his ERA going into the All-Star break was 4.01.  That isn’t bad, but it is not All-Star worthy.  What I am trying to say here is that wins do not matter nearly as much as ERA, especially for a team like the Pirates.  Usually it is tough for pitchers on a bad team to get wins because of lack of run support, a big example being Paul Maholm, so they can pile up a large amount of losses even if they are pitching well.  Correia somehow came out on the other end of this, winning many games while not pitching great because the offense was scoring runs when he was on the mound.  Also, Correia pitched absolutely terrible at PNC Park this year, with a 7.71 ERA in 12 games at home versus a 2.64 in 14 games on the road.  He has never been an above average pitcher in the major leagues, so don’t think he can lead the staff just because he led the team in wins.  I’m not saying he shouldn’t be in the rotation, I’m just saying he shouldn’t be a lock.
An internal candidate that I think should definitely be given a chance is Brad Lincoln.  He didn’t have a great year in AAA, but was called up to the Pirates for good in August, where he initially pitched out of the bullpen.  Eventually, he was moved to the rotation because of injuries to the other starters, and pitched respectably in that role.  He trailed off at the end of the season, but that may be due to fatigue.  He has good upside as a 26 year old, so he should definitely be considered for one of the additions to the rotation.
Another internal candidate for the rotation is Jeff Locke.  Locke came up as a September call up after only five starts in AAA, and clearly was not ready for the majors.  In his four major league starts, he posted a 6.48 ERA, along with a 1.86 ERA.  Those are both terrible numbers, and prove he should not have been in the rotation at all.  He’s not really a good option at all for the opening day rotation, but he could be recalled to join the rotation at any time in 2012.
The final internal candidate that I would like to suggest, and I may be the only one who does suggest him, is Daniel McCutchen.  The Pirates acquired McCutchen from the Yankees in the Nady/Marte deal as a starter, and has made 15 career starts in the majors.  Although he hasn’t done particularly well in those starts (5.45 ERA), he had a solid year out of the bullpen and pitched well when needed in a long relief role.  There is only a very slim chance that he will even be considered as an option, but I believe that he at least deserves a look.  
There are a lot of options that the Pirates will look at on the free agent market, but they will most likely avoid any high priced players, which includes all type A and type B free agents. Three pitchers that the Pirates should consider are Chris Capuano, Jon Garland, and Rich Harden.  
Capuano is a good option because the Pirates do not currently have a lefty starter who is ready to handle a rotation spot in the majors, and a veteran such as Capuano could be a possible fit to fill that void.  He’s had decent results in his career, similar to those of Paul Maholm, and he would come at a cheaper price.  There’s little doubt that the Pirates will pursue Capuano in some way, but the market is thin on quality lefty starters, so he may be tough to acquire.  
Jon Garland is a solid starter, and has pitched well since coming into the National League.  He had a very good year in 2010 with the Padres, going 15-12 with a 3.47 ERA, so he would be a good short term addition to the rotation.  However, he will also be in high demand, so he will be tough to acquire as well.  
With Rich Harden, you have a pitcher who has a lot of upside and  great results in the past, but you also have a pitcher who has battled multiple injuries in the past.  When healthy, Harden is an above average MLB pitcher who can have an ERA under 3.00, but when unhealthy, he will struggle.  Over the past two years, Harden has seen his ERA rise above 5.00, but has also only made 33 starts in that time.  The most innings he has logged in a season is 189 in 2004 as a 22 year old, showing that his arm may not be ready to handle a full season of pitching.  Still, out of these three pitchers, I believe Harden is the best deal because of his upside.  He probably doesn’t have the ability to pitch an entire season, but hopefully some of the pitchers in the minors will be ready to take over when necessary.  Although Harden is the best option, Capuano is the most likely of the three to be a Pirate because of his price and the team’s need for a left handed pitcher.
The Pirates have depth in the upper levels of their minor league system, with players who can reach the majors in 2012.  Some minor league pitchers that may be able to step up this year and fill a rotation spot are Rudy Owens, Justin Wilson, Jeff Locke, and Kyle McPherson.  
Coming into 2011, fans were hopeful that Owens would be promoted to the Pirates sometime in the summer and make an immediate impact in the rotation.  However, he lost the control he showed in the past that gave him great results, and this caused him to struggle throughout the year.  Unless he rediscovers this control, he will not be in the rotation in 2012.  If he regains his control, he could be the lefty starter in the Paul Maholm mold that the Pirates are looking for.  Much of the same can be said about Jeff Locke, but after an impressive five starts in AAA, he was given the chance to start in the majors.  He did not take advantage of this opportunity, but it gave him valuable experience that he will learn from and hopefully approve upon.  It may also have him favored for a call up amongst this group because he has already faced major league hitting.
Justin Wilson is an interesting option because he was moved to the bullpen late in the season, where he reportedly reached 99 MPH with his fastball.  Because he has great stuff and velocity as a left hander, a permanent switch to the bullpen may be best for him.
Kyle McPherson had a great year between high-A and AA, so should start the 2012 season in AAA.  If he continues to improve, he could be in the majors by July and make a good impression in the rotation.  But, don’t get your hopes up because the same things were said about Rudy Owens last year, so we have to be careful with our predictions.
The Pirates are going into the off season with what appears to be four locks in the rotation.  They will look at free agents and internal options for the final spot.  If they look at free agents, the most likely option would be the lefty Chris Capuano.  If they stay with a pitcher already in the system, it will be Brad Lincoln.  Also, I thought I’d add that #1 draft pick Gerrit Cole has a small chance of making it to the majors this year, but it is very unlikely that he will unless the team is in contention late in the season.

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Top 30 Prospects: #15-13

15.) Alex Dickerson--1B--21:  Dickerson was drafted in the third round of this year’s draft, and could very well be a big steal.  Coming into the draft, he was rated the #42 best player available by Baseball America, and fell to the Pirates as the 91st pick.  This can be explained because he has a history of back problems, and this may mean he could have been ranked higher than #42 if he was healthy.  So, this means that the Pirates may have gotten 1st round talent with each of their first three picks.  Dickerson hit very well in 150 State College at bats, with a .313/.393/.493 line.  He has a good deal of power potential, and that showed up this year with 16 doubles, but only three home runs.  But, those doubles should turn into homers as he adjusts to using wooden bats.  It is expected that Dickerson will start next year in Bradenton and skip over West Virginia because he was drafted as a college senior, and this means he could rise to the majors relatively quickly, possibly as soon as June 2013.  He has the potential to be an above average hitting first basemen in the majors with 30+ home run power.  This is something the Pirates definitely wanted in their system, and it would be a big boost to the organization if Dickerson continues to perform well.      
OFP: 55 (Solid, Everyday Regular)

14.) Justin Wilson--LHP--24:  Wilson is a similar prospect to Bryan Morris.  Both have good stuff, but they are getting older for being prospects and also started the year in the rotation and ended in the bullpen.  Morris has the higher upside, but Wilson has had the better results.  Wilson started the season pitching very well out of the rotation, with a 2.25 ERA in April, but cooled off over the rest of the season and struggled with his control, a problem that he has had throughout his time in the minors.  He struggles with his control because his pitches have a lot of movement, so they may move out of the strike zone.  He was moved to the bullpen in August, and had some success there, but still struggled with control, allowing ten walks in 14 innings out of the ‘pen.  However, Wilson was throwing in the upper 90’s, even touching 99, which came as a surprise as he was usually hovering around 88-93 MPH while starting.  It is rare to have a lefty reliever touching the upper 90’s with great movement on his pitches, so a permanent move to the bullpen may be a good decision.  He will probably go back to Indianapolis next year, and has a good chance to move up to the majors eventually.  There is still a chance (higher chance than Morris) that he will be in the Indianapolis rotation next year, but I don’t see him as a starter in Pittsburgh, at least not next season.
OFP: 55 (Solid Back-End of Bullpen Pitcher/Back of Rotation)

13.) Jeff Locke--LHP--23:  Locke was a September call-up for the Pirates this year, and had a 6.48 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in four stars.  Both are terrible numbers, and his walk and strikeout numbers have been horrible.  This shows us that he probably wasn’t ready to be called up, especially after only spending a month in AAA.  He started the season in AA and didn’t have too much success, but was able to put up a 4.03 ERA.  Throughout his time in the minors, Locke has put up great K/BB numbers, with a career 8.2/2.4 ratio.   This year, his strikeout numbers were in line with this, but his walks rose to 3.2 per nine innings.  His control led to the less than spectacular numbers he put up this year.  However, he had great success when he was promoted to AAA, and this prompted his September call-up.  The best thing we can hope from Locke at this point is to be a consistent lefty starter in the majors with good control and decent strikeout numbers.  Or in other words, Paul Maholm with more K’s.  He will begin next year in AAA, with a good chance to be recalled at any time.
OFP:  55 (Back of Rotation Pitcher)