Late last night, the Pirates acquired outfielder Travis Snider for reliever Brad Lincoln in a one-for-one trade. For the Pirates, there is nothing to hate about this deal. Whenever you can trade a 27 year-old reliever for a 24 year old potential All-Star who is under team control until 2015, you have to make that deal. Just like how closers are overvalued, other relievers will be overvalued as well.
WAR is a great stat to determine a player's overall value. McCutchen's WAR this year is 5.4, which is second in the MLB behind Mike Trout (6.2). Lincoln's WAR this year is at 1.2, while Snider's WAR is at 0.2. Yes, Lincoln's is much higher, but Snider only has 36 at bats this season in ten games. Also, as a reliever, Lincoln's WAR is almost as high as it will ever be. Aroldis Chapman, now the Red's closer, is having an incredible season out of the bullpen, and his WAR is at 2.4. That number is greatly increased because he has 21 saves now, and would be lower if he remained in a set-up role. Personally, I don't think Lincoln will ever have a season like Chapman is having, and I doubt Lincoln's WAR will ever reach 2.0 unless he is made a starter or reliever. To put that in perspective, an average major league starter's (position player) WAR is about 2.0. So, at his peak value, Lincoln has the same worth as an average major league starter. With Snider, you have a guy that could be a perennial All-Star candidate, with Baseball-Reference putting an All-Star's WAR at 5+. It can definitely be argued that Snider won't be an All-Star, but even if he is just an average starter, he will probably still provide more value than Lincoln ever will as a reliever.
Another stat that I want to throw out there is 27.5%. That is the percentage of games that Brad Lincoln has appeared in for the Pirates. When coming out of the bullpen, Lincoln averages 1.55 innings. So, for less than 30% of the Pirates games, Brad Lincoln came in and pitched an average of less than two innings. In exchange for this, the Pirates got a guy that could play every inning of every game, and who could do very well.
There is the option that Brad Lincoln could start for the Blue Jays, which could increase his value. But, how would he perform in the rotation? In five starts this year, Lincoln had a 6.08 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and only compiled 23.2 innings. That's less than five innings a start. If he struggled this much in the NL Central, how is he going to have more success in the AL East, the best division in baseball? An example of the difference between these two divisions: A.J. Burnett had an ERA of 5.15 in his last year in the AL East, one year after he posted a 5.26 ERA. Now, as a 35 year old in the NL Central, Burnett has a 3.52 ERA. It is doubtful that Lincoln will become an above average starter, as he is 27 years-old and moving to a much stronger division, so the only way he could increase his value is moving to the closer role.
Now on to Travis Snider. I feel the same thing would apply to Snider, moving from the AL East to the NL Central. He's going to face easier pitching in his new division, which could easily better his production. He's also moving into PNC Park, where the short deck in right field could help his power numbers moving forward.
Here is something we can't forget, just three years ago in 2009, Snider was the #6 prospect in all of baseball. He has yet to be given more than 300 at bats in one season at the major league level. When he was given 298 at-bats as a 22 year-old, he hit 14 home runs. Now let's look at his AAA numbers. In 183 games and 696 at bats, Snider has a batting line of .333/.412/.565, good for a .976 OPS, along with 56 doubles, 33 home runs, 155 RBI, and 17 stolen bases. Even though he played in the traditionally hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, those numbers are still outstanding. This season, in 56 games and 209 at bats at AAA, Snider has a line of .335/.423/.598, with a 1.021 OPS, 13 home runs, and 56 RBI. This is where I would like to remind everyone that Travis Snider is 24 years-old. He is only eight months older than Starling Marte, and is a year younger than Pedro Alvarez.
The Pirates needed an outfielder or first baseman that could hit and hit for power, and this is what they potentially got with Snider. Now that Snider is the team's starting right fielder, Garrett Jones can move to first base and possibly platoon with Casey McGehee, and the team won't have to start Alex Presley and his .651 OPS anymore in the outfield. This trade will only improve the offense, and could add a lot more power to the lineup.
In no way am I trying to bash Brad Lincoln in this post, I'm just saying that relievers are generally overvalued, and that the team got a great return in this trade. Lincoln is a great guy and will be missed, but the Pirates have options in AAA that could make the team better right now. It is likely that one of these players is called up today to take the bullpen spot that Lincoln left. My guess is that it will be Bryan Morris, who has been dominant out of the 'pen. It could also be lefty Doug Slaten, but they would have to make a move on the 40-man roster for that to happen.
The Pirates traded a reliever for a player that could be a All-Star in the Lincoln-Snider trade. Lincoln appeared in less than 30% of the Pirates' games, and Snider could be an everyday game-changer with his hitting ability. Not much bad can be said about this trade, and it could very well become one of the best trades that General Manager Neal Huntington makes for the Pirates.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
Monday, July 30, 2012
The Pirates Don't Need To Trade For A Reliever
The Pirates have recently been said to have interest in lefty reliever Jose Mijares of Kansas City, who is having a great year with a 2.15 ERA in 37.2 innings. Lefties are hitting only .213 against him with a .560 OPS, but righties are hitting .283 with a .807 OPS, so he is better served as a lefty specialist. But, the Pirates really do not need to acquire another reliever.
While Mijares would be a great addition to an already strong bullpen, that move is not necessary, and neither is a deal for any reliever. If the Pirates need a reliever, they can just go to their very strong AAA team to find options. Here are the players the Pirates have in their highest minor league affiliate and on the 40-man roster that could come up an help in the bullpen:
LHP Jeff Locke: Locke is having a great year in AAA as a starter, with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. If needed, Locke could also come up and fill in as a good back of the rotation starter this year, especially if Correia is dealt. He has good pitches, with his fastball sitting in the low 90's with good control. In the bullpen, there's a good chance he can increase his velocity to the low-mid 90's. He could be used in the bullpen this year, but his future is as a starter in the majors. He was my #7 prospect in my top 30 prospects before the trading deadline.
RHP Daniel McCutchen: McCutchen was one of the most frequent relievers for the Pirates last year, putting up a decent season in 73 appearances. He was sent to AAA to begin the year because he had an option left, while other relievers he was in competition with didn't. He wouldn't be the first option up from this list, as he is not having a great season, but not bad either. He has a 3.64 ERA in 25 appearances, along with a 1.29 WHIP.
RHP Bryan Morris: Morris was called up for about a day earlier this season, then immediately sent down without ever getting a chance to appear in a major league game. Morris is the best option out of anyone on this list, and he has the potential to be a future closer in the MLB. He has a mid 90's fastball with a great curveball, a two pitch mix that can be very deadly out of the bullpen. He has a 2.54 ERA and 1.08 WHIP this year out of the 'pen, with good strikeout and walk numbers. Morris was my #13 prospect in the most recent rankings.
RHP Duke Welker: Since being moved to the bullpen, Welker has done a lot of good for the Pirates' affiliates. After being promoted to AAA part way through this year, Welker has a 2.42 ERA in 26 innings, with a 1.31 WHIP. His WHIP is that high because of a 5.9 BB/9, but he is also letting up only 5.9 Hits/9 as well. Welker possesses an upper 90's fastball, and good be a good addition to the bullpen this year or in the future.
LHP Justin Wilson: Need a lefty reliever? Justin Wilson should be the first option. Wilson has great stuff to work with, with great natural movement that makes his pitches very hard to hit. After struggling with his control last year, the Pirates moved Wilson to the AAA bullpen to end the season, where he displayed an upper 90's fastball that could hit 99 MPH. With an upper 90's fastball and great secondary pitches, Wilson could be a great late inning reliever, even with below average-average control. Wilson has a 4.04 ERA as a starter in AAA, with a 6.4 Hits/9, and can be a very good starter when his control is working. He could be another option for a spot start.
The Pirates are in contention and a good bullpen is vital to a playoff team. But, the Pirates don't need to look outside the organization to find an upgrade to an already great bullpen. General Manager Neal Huntington has done a great job over the past few years of putting together cheap bullpens that are always above average, and he hasn't had to trade for any upgrades for the bullpen. So, why should he start now with so many good options that are already in the organization? The team doesn't need to trade away another prospect just to get a reliever, and should use their prospects to get a hitter. If the Pirates really do want or need another reliever, the answer is just one promotion to the majors away.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
While Mijares would be a great addition to an already strong bullpen, that move is not necessary, and neither is a deal for any reliever. If the Pirates need a reliever, they can just go to their very strong AAA team to find options. Here are the players the Pirates have in their highest minor league affiliate and on the 40-man roster that could come up an help in the bullpen:
LHP Jeff Locke: Locke is having a great year in AAA as a starter, with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. If needed, Locke could also come up and fill in as a good back of the rotation starter this year, especially if Correia is dealt. He has good pitches, with his fastball sitting in the low 90's with good control. In the bullpen, there's a good chance he can increase his velocity to the low-mid 90's. He could be used in the bullpen this year, but his future is as a starter in the majors. He was my #7 prospect in my top 30 prospects before the trading deadline.
RHP Daniel McCutchen: McCutchen was one of the most frequent relievers for the Pirates last year, putting up a decent season in 73 appearances. He was sent to AAA to begin the year because he had an option left, while other relievers he was in competition with didn't. He wouldn't be the first option up from this list, as he is not having a great season, but not bad either. He has a 3.64 ERA in 25 appearances, along with a 1.29 WHIP.
RHP Bryan Morris: Morris was called up for about a day earlier this season, then immediately sent down without ever getting a chance to appear in a major league game. Morris is the best option out of anyone on this list, and he has the potential to be a future closer in the MLB. He has a mid 90's fastball with a great curveball, a two pitch mix that can be very deadly out of the bullpen. He has a 2.54 ERA and 1.08 WHIP this year out of the 'pen, with good strikeout and walk numbers. Morris was my #13 prospect in the most recent rankings.
RHP Duke Welker: Since being moved to the bullpen, Welker has done a lot of good for the Pirates' affiliates. After being promoted to AAA part way through this year, Welker has a 2.42 ERA in 26 innings, with a 1.31 WHIP. His WHIP is that high because of a 5.9 BB/9, but he is also letting up only 5.9 Hits/9 as well. Welker possesses an upper 90's fastball, and good be a good addition to the bullpen this year or in the future.
LHP Justin Wilson: Need a lefty reliever? Justin Wilson should be the first option. Wilson has great stuff to work with, with great natural movement that makes his pitches very hard to hit. After struggling with his control last year, the Pirates moved Wilson to the AAA bullpen to end the season, where he displayed an upper 90's fastball that could hit 99 MPH. With an upper 90's fastball and great secondary pitches, Wilson could be a great late inning reliever, even with below average-average control. Wilson has a 4.04 ERA as a starter in AAA, with a 6.4 Hits/9, and can be a very good starter when his control is working. He could be another option for a spot start.
The Pirates are in contention and a good bullpen is vital to a playoff team. But, the Pirates don't need to look outside the organization to find an upgrade to an already great bullpen. General Manager Neal Huntington has done a great job over the past few years of putting together cheap bullpens that are always above average, and he hasn't had to trade for any upgrades for the bullpen. So, why should he start now with so many good options that are already in the organization? The team doesn't need to trade away another prospect just to get a reliever, and should use their prospects to get a hitter. If the Pirates really do want or need another reliever, the answer is just one promotion to the majors away.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
Sunday, July 29, 2012
The Pirates Should Make a Trade, But Not With Marte
With the trading deadline approaching in two days, there are a lot of rumors going around the league, and the Pirates are included in a lot of these rumors. It is well known the Pirates are looking for an outfielder or first baseman, and they have been linked to names such as Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence, and Shin-Soo Choo. It wouldn't take much to get Victorino in a trade, but a trade for Pence and Choo will require a good package of players to complete the deal. Recently, Rob Biertempfel reported that the Pirates are "checking in" on Choo, and that the Pirates would likely have to part with Marte in order to complete that deal. That would not be a good deal for the Pirates.
At this point, no player is worth it to part with outfielder Starling Marte. Pence and Choo will both probably provide better offense down the stretch this year than Marte will, but even though the Pirates are on the verge of a winning season for the first time since 1992, the team still has to look to the future. Marte will be under team control for at least the next six years, while both Pence and Choo will be gone after next season. Which would you rather have, one and a half years of good production from Pence or Choo, or six years of possible great production from Marte? To me, the obvious answer is the six years of Marte. And, it may not take just Marte to acquire Pence or Choo. It may take another good prospect, someone like Jeff Locke or Gregory Polanco. That kind of deal is not worth one and a half years of a player who will put up a .800-.850 OPS.
After saying this, I still believe the Pirates should go out and get a good hitter. The Phillies have shown a lot of interest in reliever Brad Lincoln, so the Pirates should try to work out a deal with him included. If they could acquire Pence for a package that includes Lincoln and another good/decent prospect, then they should do it. Another way the Pirates could acquire a hitter is by dealing Kevin Correia or Joel Hanrahan. Teams that are looking for a veteran back of the rotation starter to sure up than rotation can deal for Correia. Correia is at his highest value right now, so it is the perfect time to trade him. As I stated in my post yesterday, the Pirates should definitely look to trade Joel Hanrahan, as he would bring in one or two major league hitters. If anything, the Astros series has shown that the Pirates need another bat to put the team over the top. The Pirates have the ability to make a trade for a bat without dealing Starling Marte, so they have to take that route.
The Pirates do need offense, and they should try to acquire a good hitter. But, they have to avoid parting with their top hitting prospect Starling Marte. He's too valuable to the team, and he has the ability to be an Andrew McCutchen-lite. Marte could hit for a .300+ average, and his power has really been improving over the last two years, and has the potential to hit for around 20 homers each year. Having Marte and McCutchen next to each other in the outfield for the next six years or so is definitely better to have than Pence or Choo next to McCutchen for one and a half years. A deal has to be made, but Marte has to be kept.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
At this point, no player is worth it to part with outfielder Starling Marte. Pence and Choo will both probably provide better offense down the stretch this year than Marte will, but even though the Pirates are on the verge of a winning season for the first time since 1992, the team still has to look to the future. Marte will be under team control for at least the next six years, while both Pence and Choo will be gone after next season. Which would you rather have, one and a half years of good production from Pence or Choo, or six years of possible great production from Marte? To me, the obvious answer is the six years of Marte. And, it may not take just Marte to acquire Pence or Choo. It may take another good prospect, someone like Jeff Locke or Gregory Polanco. That kind of deal is not worth one and a half years of a player who will put up a .800-.850 OPS.
After saying this, I still believe the Pirates should go out and get a good hitter. The Phillies have shown a lot of interest in reliever Brad Lincoln, so the Pirates should try to work out a deal with him included. If they could acquire Pence for a package that includes Lincoln and another good/decent prospect, then they should do it. Another way the Pirates could acquire a hitter is by dealing Kevin Correia or Joel Hanrahan. Teams that are looking for a veteran back of the rotation starter to sure up than rotation can deal for Correia. Correia is at his highest value right now, so it is the perfect time to trade him. As I stated in my post yesterday, the Pirates should definitely look to trade Joel Hanrahan, as he would bring in one or two major league hitters. If anything, the Astros series has shown that the Pirates need another bat to put the team over the top. The Pirates have the ability to make a trade for a bat without dealing Starling Marte, so they have to take that route.
The Pirates do need offense, and they should try to acquire a good hitter. But, they have to avoid parting with their top hitting prospect Starling Marte. He's too valuable to the team, and he has the ability to be an Andrew McCutchen-lite. Marte could hit for a .300+ average, and his power has really been improving over the last two years, and has the potential to hit for around 20 homers each year. Having Marte and McCutchen next to each other in the outfield for the next six years or so is definitely better to have than Pence or Choo next to McCutchen for one and a half years. A deal has to be made, but Marte has to be kept.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
Saturday, July 28, 2012
The Pirates Should Trade Joel Hanrahan
Written by: Michael Mawhinney
Over the past two years, Pirates' pitcher Joel Hanrahan has emerged as one of the top closers in the MLB, and has earned two All-Star nods. After a 2011 season where he saved 40 games, Hanrahan now leads the MLB in 2012 with 31 saves. He has a 2.18 ERA, 5.2 Hits/9, and a strikeout rate of 10.2 K/9. Because of these stats and his performance, Joel Hanrahan should be traded.
The idea of Hanrahan getting traded will surely make a lot of Pirates fans very upset, as they have come to love "Hammer time" and his unique beard and hair. He has done a great job for the Pirates and deserves a lot of the credit that he has been giving, but the fact is, closers are VERY overvalued. Tom Singer of MLB.com reports that there are elite teams willing to give "two major league bats" for Hanrahan. Whenever you can get two major league hitters for a reliever, it's generally a great deal. The Pirates need another bat if they want to have a chance at the NL pennant, and including Hanrahan in a trade could really increase the return that the Pirates receive. Four potential suitors for Hanrahan that could use a closer in their playoff race are the Red Sox, White Sox, Blue Jays, and Angels. In a trade for Hanrahan, the Pirates could also look for top prospects instead of major league hitters, as closers can bring in a good haul that way, as well. Here's a quick look at what these teams could offer:
Red Sox: Prospects: SS Xander Bogaerts, CF Jackie Bradley, C Blake Swihart
Bogaerts is 19 year old shortstop in high-A, with an .840 OPS. He has a lot of power potential, shown by 14 home runs this year, and has made good contact as well, with a .287 average this year. However, it seems unlikely he will stay at short. Keith Law has him as the #29 prospect in his mid-season rankings, so it is unlikely the Red Sox would part with him. Bradley is a very good defensive center fielder, and he has hit well this year, with an average .338 across high-A and AA, along with a .956 OPS. With this production, it also seems unlikely he is traded, but he is more likely to be dealt than Bogaerts. Swihart is an athletic catcher that needs more work at that position, but as a first round pick in 2011, he still has a lot of time to become the two way catcher he has the potential to be.
Major Leaguers: OF Ryan Kalish, OF Cody Ross
Kalish is a 24 year old former top prospect. He's been terrible this year in the majors, with a .488 OPS, but has hit well at AAA so far. Ross, who was a playoff hero for the Giants in 2010, has 16 home runs this year, but may cost more than just Joel Hanrahan.
White Sox: Prospects: The White Sox minor league system is horrible, and I do not suggest we trade for any of their prospects as we could get much more for Hanrahan.
Major Leaguers: After further review, the White Sox really have nothing to offer us. Cross them off as a potential trade partner. I do not know how they are winning right now, other than their division is not good at all.
Blue Jays: Prospects: C Travis D'Arnaud, RHP Aaron Sanchez, CF Jake Marisnick
Unlike the White Sox, the Blue Jays have a very good farm system. D'Arnaud, brother of Pirates' minor league Chase D'arnaud, is one of the top prospects in baseball, and has a .975 OPS in AAA this year as a 23 year old. But, D'arnaud is blocked in the MLB at catcher by J.P. Arencibia. The Blue Jays are obviously going to be very resistant to the idea of trading D'arnaud, but offering Joel Hanrahan and another good prospect or two like Jeff Locke, Justin Wilson, or even a lower level guy like Nick Kingham could turn out to be a great deal for the Pirates, who lack a good long term option at catcher if Tony Sanchez doesn't step up. Aaron Sanchez has a great arm, striking out over ten guys per nine innings, but also has a lot of control problems. He isn't letting up a lot of hits, and he would be a great addition to the system. Marisnick has the potential to be a five tool player, but has struggled so far in his jump to AA as a 21 year old. But after a great 2011 in low-A where he put up a .888 OPS, he is still a good trade option.
Major Leaguers: 1B Adam Lind, SS Yunel Escobar, OF Travis Snider
Any deal that involves a struggling player in the AL East who has had success in the past is very intriguing to me. This is because the AL East is possibly the best division in baseball, and the NL Central is one of the worst. As we've seen with A.J. Burnett, a player who struggled in the AL East can do great things with a move to the NL Central. Adam Lind has had three straight years coming into 2012 of 23 or more home runs, but has struggled with his bat this year. However, he would be an improvement over Casey McGehee offensively at first, and that would allow Jones to move to the outfield, where offense outside of McCutchen has been bad. Escobar is a decent hitting shortstop, but his attitude has caused some potential suitors to back off, as he can really hurt the clubhouse. Snider is a former top prospect who could also benefit from a move to the NL Central. He is 24 years old an has a career .976 OPS in AAA.
Angels: Prospects: RHP Garrett Richards, RHP John Hellweg, 1B C.J. Cron
Richards, who has started eight games in the majors this year and has a 3.91 ERA, has a plus fastball that he throws at 94-100 MPH, along with a good slider and good changeup. He doesn't strike out a lot of batters, and his control has been bad in his time in the majors. The Angels are very unlikely to deal Richards, as they did not include him in the Zack Greinke deal. Hellweg is a huge righty with a plus fastball, but control has been a major issue. He also went from striking out 11.4 batters per nine innings last year to striking out only 6.6 per nine this year, which could be a red flag. Cron is a big power hitter who is putting up a good average this year at .292, but he almost never walks, with a 2.7% walk rate. A plus side to that rate is that his strikeout rate is also very low, at 12.2%, which is amazing for a power hitter. C.J. Cron would be the best and most likely option here to me, but I seem to like him more as a prospect than others do.
Major Leaguers: OF Peter Bourjos
Bourjos would be a good pick up for Hanrahan, and a deal could probably get done between the two teams, as the Angels may be looking to trade him from their crowded outfield. Bourjos is a great defensive centerfielder, far better than McCutchen and better than Marte two, but would probably play left and move Marte to right if the Pirates acquired him. His bat is the wild card here, and could be a great boost to the Pirates if he hit around .280 and continued his amazing defense.
The Blue Jays and Angels seem to match up better with the Pirates, especially in the Bourjos case. I would love to see a deal made to get D'Arnaud, but that would probably never happen. I think Travis Snider would be a good guy to trade for, as he was recently one of the best prospects in all of baseball, and hasn't really been given a chance to play everyday in the majors and prove himself. A straight up Hanrahan for Snider trade would make sense for both clubs, and the Pirates may be able to get even more out of that deal.
If the Pirates could get any player that is or could be a good Major League starting pitcher or hitter, then they have to make that deal. Hanrahan pitches for one inning in about 43% of the Pirates' games, so getting a good everyday player would be well worth it. Also, the Pirates have guys that can fill in for Hanrahan and succeed as the closer. Brad Lincoln, Jason Grilli, and even Bryan Morris would all be good or better major league closers in my eyes right now. Personally, I think Lincoln would do even better than Hanrahan is doing. Also, there have been rumors that the Phillies would give the Pirates Shane Victorino in exchange for Brad Lincoln. Hanrahan's value is almost certainly much higher than Lincoln's, so just think what we could get for Hanrahan.
Playoff teams do need a good closer that can come in and shut the door in close games, but Hanrahan should be traded as his value will never be higher, and the Pirates have guys that can fill in as the closer. There are a lot of good trade options out there for the Pirates and Hanrahan, and the Pirates have to take full advantage of the value that Hanrahan could bring.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
Over the past two years, Pirates' pitcher Joel Hanrahan has emerged as one of the top closers in the MLB, and has earned two All-Star nods. After a 2011 season where he saved 40 games, Hanrahan now leads the MLB in 2012 with 31 saves. He has a 2.18 ERA, 5.2 Hits/9, and a strikeout rate of 10.2 K/9. Because of these stats and his performance, Joel Hanrahan should be traded.
The idea of Hanrahan getting traded will surely make a lot of Pirates fans very upset, as they have come to love "Hammer time" and his unique beard and hair. He has done a great job for the Pirates and deserves a lot of the credit that he has been giving, but the fact is, closers are VERY overvalued. Tom Singer of MLB.com reports that there are elite teams willing to give "two major league bats" for Hanrahan. Whenever you can get two major league hitters for a reliever, it's generally a great deal. The Pirates need another bat if they want to have a chance at the NL pennant, and including Hanrahan in a trade could really increase the return that the Pirates receive. Four potential suitors for Hanrahan that could use a closer in their playoff race are the Red Sox, White Sox, Blue Jays, and Angels. In a trade for Hanrahan, the Pirates could also look for top prospects instead of major league hitters, as closers can bring in a good haul that way, as well. Here's a quick look at what these teams could offer:
Red Sox: Prospects: SS Xander Bogaerts, CF Jackie Bradley, C Blake Swihart
Bogaerts is 19 year old shortstop in high-A, with an .840 OPS. He has a lot of power potential, shown by 14 home runs this year, and has made good contact as well, with a .287 average this year. However, it seems unlikely he will stay at short. Keith Law has him as the #29 prospect in his mid-season rankings, so it is unlikely the Red Sox would part with him. Bradley is a very good defensive center fielder, and he has hit well this year, with an average .338 across high-A and AA, along with a .956 OPS. With this production, it also seems unlikely he is traded, but he is more likely to be dealt than Bogaerts. Swihart is an athletic catcher that needs more work at that position, but as a first round pick in 2011, he still has a lot of time to become the two way catcher he has the potential to be.
Major Leaguers: OF Ryan Kalish, OF Cody Ross
Kalish is a 24 year old former top prospect. He's been terrible this year in the majors, with a .488 OPS, but has hit well at AAA so far. Ross, who was a playoff hero for the Giants in 2010, has 16 home runs this year, but may cost more than just Joel Hanrahan.
White Sox: Prospects: The White Sox minor league system is horrible, and I do not suggest we trade for any of their prospects as we could get much more for Hanrahan.
Major Leaguers: After further review, the White Sox really have nothing to offer us. Cross them off as a potential trade partner. I do not know how they are winning right now, other than their division is not good at all.
Blue Jays: Prospects: C Travis D'Arnaud, RHP Aaron Sanchez, CF Jake Marisnick
Unlike the White Sox, the Blue Jays have a very good farm system. D'Arnaud, brother of Pirates' minor league Chase D'arnaud, is one of the top prospects in baseball, and has a .975 OPS in AAA this year as a 23 year old. But, D'arnaud is blocked in the MLB at catcher by J.P. Arencibia. The Blue Jays are obviously going to be very resistant to the idea of trading D'arnaud, but offering Joel Hanrahan and another good prospect or two like Jeff Locke, Justin Wilson, or even a lower level guy like Nick Kingham could turn out to be a great deal for the Pirates, who lack a good long term option at catcher if Tony Sanchez doesn't step up. Aaron Sanchez has a great arm, striking out over ten guys per nine innings, but also has a lot of control problems. He isn't letting up a lot of hits, and he would be a great addition to the system. Marisnick has the potential to be a five tool player, but has struggled so far in his jump to AA as a 21 year old. But after a great 2011 in low-A where he put up a .888 OPS, he is still a good trade option.
Major Leaguers: 1B Adam Lind, SS Yunel Escobar, OF Travis Snider
Any deal that involves a struggling player in the AL East who has had success in the past is very intriguing to me. This is because the AL East is possibly the best division in baseball, and the NL Central is one of the worst. As we've seen with A.J. Burnett, a player who struggled in the AL East can do great things with a move to the NL Central. Adam Lind has had three straight years coming into 2012 of 23 or more home runs, but has struggled with his bat this year. However, he would be an improvement over Casey McGehee offensively at first, and that would allow Jones to move to the outfield, where offense outside of McCutchen has been bad. Escobar is a decent hitting shortstop, but his attitude has caused some potential suitors to back off, as he can really hurt the clubhouse. Snider is a former top prospect who could also benefit from a move to the NL Central. He is 24 years old an has a career .976 OPS in AAA.
Angels: Prospects: RHP Garrett Richards, RHP John Hellweg, 1B C.J. Cron
Richards, who has started eight games in the majors this year and has a 3.91 ERA, has a plus fastball that he throws at 94-100 MPH, along with a good slider and good changeup. He doesn't strike out a lot of batters, and his control has been bad in his time in the majors. The Angels are very unlikely to deal Richards, as they did not include him in the Zack Greinke deal. Hellweg is a huge righty with a plus fastball, but control has been a major issue. He also went from striking out 11.4 batters per nine innings last year to striking out only 6.6 per nine this year, which could be a red flag. Cron is a big power hitter who is putting up a good average this year at .292, but he almost never walks, with a 2.7% walk rate. A plus side to that rate is that his strikeout rate is also very low, at 12.2%, which is amazing for a power hitter. C.J. Cron would be the best and most likely option here to me, but I seem to like him more as a prospect than others do.
Major Leaguers: OF Peter Bourjos
Bourjos would be a good pick up for Hanrahan, and a deal could probably get done between the two teams, as the Angels may be looking to trade him from their crowded outfield. Bourjos is a great defensive centerfielder, far better than McCutchen and better than Marte two, but would probably play left and move Marte to right if the Pirates acquired him. His bat is the wild card here, and could be a great boost to the Pirates if he hit around .280 and continued his amazing defense.
The Blue Jays and Angels seem to match up better with the Pirates, especially in the Bourjos case. I would love to see a deal made to get D'Arnaud, but that would probably never happen. I think Travis Snider would be a good guy to trade for, as he was recently one of the best prospects in all of baseball, and hasn't really been given a chance to play everyday in the majors and prove himself. A straight up Hanrahan for Snider trade would make sense for both clubs, and the Pirates may be able to get even more out of that deal.
If the Pirates could get any player that is or could be a good Major League starting pitcher or hitter, then they have to make that deal. Hanrahan pitches for one inning in about 43% of the Pirates' games, so getting a good everyday player would be well worth it. Also, the Pirates have guys that can fill in for Hanrahan and succeed as the closer. Brad Lincoln, Jason Grilli, and even Bryan Morris would all be good or better major league closers in my eyes right now. Personally, I think Lincoln would do even better than Hanrahan is doing. Also, there have been rumors that the Phillies would give the Pirates Shane Victorino in exchange for Brad Lincoln. Hanrahan's value is almost certainly much higher than Lincoln's, so just think what we could get for Hanrahan.
Playoff teams do need a good closer that can come in and shut the door in close games, but Hanrahan should be traded as his value will never be higher, and the Pirates have guys that can fill in as the closer. There are a lot of good trade options out there for the Pirates and Hanrahan, and the Pirates have to take full advantage of the value that Hanrahan could bring.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
Thursday, July 26, 2012
Top 30 Prospects Before the Trading Deadline
Written by: Michael Mawhinney
With the deadline approaching, I wanted to put together a top 30 prospects list to see what the Pirates are giving up in a potential trade. Recently, the Pirates traded three prospects to the Astros for lefty pitcher Wandy Rodriguez. Those prospects were: outfielder Robbie Grossman, and pitchers Rudy Owens and Colton Cain. With that trade and the promotion of Starling Marte to the majors, that takes away four prospects from my previous top 30 list.
Finding the new top 30 prospects was not easy, and I discovered that the talent in the Pirates' system really drops off after the best 18-20 prospects. The system will probably only get weaker in the coming days as the team hopefully adds an impact bat, a deal that would certainly cost a few prospects from this list. The Pirates still have an above average farm system right now, but after some trades the system may fall back to league average, but that is completely fine if the organization puts a good product on the major league field.
Here is my list of the current top 30 prospects in the Pirates' system:
1.) Gerrit Cole--RHP--21--AA
2.) Jameson Taillon--RHP--20--A+
3.) Luis Heredia--RHP--17--A-
4.) Josh Bell--OF--19--A
5.) Alen Hanson--SS--19--A
6.) Gregory Polanco--OF--20--A
7.) Jeff Locke--LHP--24--AAA
8.) Kyle McPherson--RHP--24--AA
9.) Justin Wilson--LHP--24--AAA
10.) Alex Dickerson--1B--22--A+
11.) Matt Curry--1B--24--AA
12.) Tony Sanchez--C--24--AAA
13.) Bryan Morris--RHP--25--AAA
14.) Clay Holmes--RHP--19--A-
15.) Wyatt Mathisen--C--18--GCL
16.) Nick Kingham--RHP--20--A
17.) Barrett Barnes--OF--20--A-
18.) Jose Osuna--1B--19--A
19.) Brock Holt--SS--24--AA
20.) Mel Rojas Jr.--OF--22--A+
21.) Zack Von Rosenberg--RHP--21--A
22.) Harold Ramirez--OF--17--GCL
23.) Robby Rowland--RHP--20--A
24.) Willy Garcia--OF--19--A
25.) Jarek Cunningham--2B--22--AA
26.) Tim Alderson--RHP--23--AA
27.) Adalberto Santos--OF--24--AA
28.) Tyler Glasnow--RHP--18--GCL
29.) Brandon Cumpton--RHP--23--AA
30.) Victor Black--RHP--24--AA
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below
With the deadline approaching, I wanted to put together a top 30 prospects list to see what the Pirates are giving up in a potential trade. Recently, the Pirates traded three prospects to the Astros for lefty pitcher Wandy Rodriguez. Those prospects were: outfielder Robbie Grossman, and pitchers Rudy Owens and Colton Cain. With that trade and the promotion of Starling Marte to the majors, that takes away four prospects from my previous top 30 list.
Finding the new top 30 prospects was not easy, and I discovered that the talent in the Pirates' system really drops off after the best 18-20 prospects. The system will probably only get weaker in the coming days as the team hopefully adds an impact bat, a deal that would certainly cost a few prospects from this list. The Pirates still have an above average farm system right now, but after some trades the system may fall back to league average, but that is completely fine if the organization puts a good product on the major league field.
Here is my list of the current top 30 prospects in the Pirates' system:
1.) Gerrit Cole--RHP--21--AA
2.) Jameson Taillon--RHP--20--A+
3.) Luis Heredia--RHP--17--A-
4.) Josh Bell--OF--19--A
5.) Alen Hanson--SS--19--A
6.) Gregory Polanco--OF--20--A
7.) Jeff Locke--LHP--24--AAA
8.) Kyle McPherson--RHP--24--AA
9.) Justin Wilson--LHP--24--AAA
10.) Alex Dickerson--1B--22--A+
11.) Matt Curry--1B--24--AA
12.) Tony Sanchez--C--24--AAA
13.) Bryan Morris--RHP--25--AAA
14.) Clay Holmes--RHP--19--A-
15.) Wyatt Mathisen--C--18--GCL
16.) Nick Kingham--RHP--20--A
17.) Barrett Barnes--OF--20--A-
18.) Jose Osuna--1B--19--A
19.) Brock Holt--SS--24--AA
20.) Mel Rojas Jr.--OF--22--A+
21.) Zack Von Rosenberg--RHP--21--A
22.) Harold Ramirez--OF--17--GCL
23.) Robby Rowland--RHP--20--A
24.) Willy Garcia--OF--19--A
25.) Jarek Cunningham--2B--22--AA
26.) Tim Alderson--RHP--23--AA
27.) Adalberto Santos--OF--24--AA
28.) Tyler Glasnow--RHP--18--GCL
29.) Brandon Cumpton--RHP--23--AA
30.) Victor Black--RHP--24--AA
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below
Starling Marte Time, Is He Ready?
Written by: Michael Mawhinney
Yesterday, the Pirates promoted their top hitting prospect, Starling Marte, to the majors. Fans have been waiting for this day ever since Marte was destroying the ball in Spring Training this year, and they were calling for his promotion very early in the season. However, Marte started off slowly this year, but really picked it up in June, where he had a .944 OPS, along with improved power while continuing to play great defense in the outfield. By the time he was promoted, Marte was able to increase his overall batting line to .286/.348/.500, with 12 home runs, 61 RBI, 21 stolen bases, and an .848 OPS.
While most people are very excited about the promotion, there are definitely going to be skeptical fans and people within the baseball industry that are going to question if Marte is ready for the majors. There are reasons for these people to be skeptical, as Marte's average is way down from last season, even though it's still at .286, his strikeout rate is at 21.1%, and his walk rate is at 6.5%. Is Marte ready for the jump to the majors?
At the beginning of July, when Marte was on a huge hot streak where he had an OPS of 1.259 over a ten game span, I wrote a post asking Is it time for Starling Marte to be called up?. In the post I asked four questions to find out if and when Marte should be called up, and if there are other factors in his promotion. The questions were: 1.) Would the Pirates be rushing Marte to the majors?, 2.) How will Presley and Tabata be doing by the end of July?, 3.) Will they trade for another hitter?, and 4.) Will the Pirates be in contention by the end of July? I am going to answer these four questions with the current situation to once again see if it is the right time for Marte to be called up.
1.) Would the Pirates be rushing Marte to the majors?
Marte has had a total of 384 at bats at the AAA level this year, which is a good amount to determine how a player can handle pitching at that level. But, is it enough to determine if a player can handle major league pitching? In my early July post, I talked about Pedro Alvarez, who was rushed to the majors, and Andrew McCutchen, who the Pirates were patient with. Alvarez had 242 at bats in AAA, while McCutchen had 780. For a prospect of Alvarez's status, 242 at bats may have seemed enough at the time, as he was hitting well and was seemingly ready to contribute at the major league level. But, those 242 at bats may not have been enough for Pedro, as he has struggled a lot in the majors with strikeouts, with a career strikeout rate of 34.4%. With a number like that, it looks like Pedro was rushed and could have used more time in AAA to better his approach. In McCutchen's case, the Pirates were extremely patient with him, but it paid off in the end as he is the favorite to win the NL MVP this year. The McCutchen example will lead many people to believe that it is best for teams to give prospects a lot of experience at AAA to prove that they are ready for the jump to the majors.
With 384 at bats in AAA this year, Marte falls between Alvarez and McCutchen, in terms of at bats and experience in AAA. The Pirates rushed Alvarez a little and were extremely patient with McCutchen, and it isn't easy to determine what the right number of at bats is to see if a player is ready for the majors. For more of a reference, I looked up another recent call-up who is a similar player to Marte, and that is Anthony Gose of the Toronto Blue Jays.
Gose came into the 2012 season ranked as the #39 prospect in baseball, according to Baseball America. Just like Marte, Gose played a full season in AA last year, and he was getting his first taste of AAA this year. Before he was promoted, Gose had 377 at bats at AAA, with .808 OPS. The OPS may seem a little lower for a top prospect, but Gose is more known for his speed and his glove. The number of at bats and OPS are very similar to those of Marte, so compared to another similar top prospect, Marte is deemed ready for the majors.
In my opinion, Marte is not being rushed to the majors. 384 at bats is enough to show that Marte can handle major league pitching, and his glove is definitely ready to contribute. Only time will tell how he will fare in the majors, but after showing consistency at the plate through June and July, it doesn't appear that Marte is being rushed.
2.) How will Presley and Tabata be doing at the end of July?
They aren't doing well......Tabata was sent down to AAA where he has struggled a little, and Presley has an OBP of .270 and a .636 OPS, so there is definitely no one blocking Marte in the outfield. The Cubs series showed that the Pirates need another bat and we already have seen that Presley and Tabata aren't the answer, so hopefully Marte can fill the offensive void in left field, and provide good production along with McCutchen in center and Garrett Jones in right.
3.) Will they trade for another hitter?
This question has yet to be answered, as the only trade the Pirates have made was for left handed pitcher Wandy Rodriguez. The Pirates still have five more days to upgrade their offense, and they are looking at first baseman and outfielders. They are known to be interested in Chase Headley of the Padres, and there are rumors that the Pirates would be interested if Hunter Pence became available. A trade really wouldn't affect Marte at this point, as a new outfielder would go to right and Jones would become the first baseman. The Pirates do need an offensive upgrade, and if they can't acquire one via trade, Marte could be that upgrade.
4.) Will the Pirates be in contention by the end of July?
The Pirates are still in contention, as they are 2.5 games back in the NL Central, and 1.5 games ahead for the first wild card spot. If the Pirates want to stay in contention, they need another bat, and as I've said in the last two questions, Marte could be that bat. But, the trade for Wandy Rodriguez and Marte's promotion should not stop the Pirates from attempting to acquire another impact bat, like Chase Headley or Hunter Pence (I would prefer Pence).
The Pirates being in contention this late in the season probably contributed to management's decision to promote Marte. If the team was not in contention, it was more likely that the team would have waited until next season to promote Marte, as it may have been seen as a waste to start his arbitration clock for two months of being on a team that isn't in contention. Marte's promotion is good timing as now he is here for the pennant race, and he is an immediate upgrade from players that have played in the outfield like Drew Sutton, Alex Presley, Jose Tabata, and Josh Harrison, both offensively and defensively.
Marte is ready to contribute in the majors, and now is a good time for him to be promoted. Many people said at the beginning of July that Marte needed to show consistency throughout the month to prove he was ready for the majors. In July, he raised his OPS 22 points, hit four homers, and drove in 14 more runs. He was already major league ready with his glove, and now he has proven that he is ready with his bat. Marte is now up in the majors ready to help a team in the middle of a pennant race, and this team is in need of an impact bat that Marte could definitely provide
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
Yesterday, the Pirates promoted their top hitting prospect, Starling Marte, to the majors. Fans have been waiting for this day ever since Marte was destroying the ball in Spring Training this year, and they were calling for his promotion very early in the season. However, Marte started off slowly this year, but really picked it up in June, where he had a .944 OPS, along with improved power while continuing to play great defense in the outfield. By the time he was promoted, Marte was able to increase his overall batting line to .286/.348/.500, with 12 home runs, 61 RBI, 21 stolen bases, and an .848 OPS.
While most people are very excited about the promotion, there are definitely going to be skeptical fans and people within the baseball industry that are going to question if Marte is ready for the majors. There are reasons for these people to be skeptical, as Marte's average is way down from last season, even though it's still at .286, his strikeout rate is at 21.1%, and his walk rate is at 6.5%. Is Marte ready for the jump to the majors?
At the beginning of July, when Marte was on a huge hot streak where he had an OPS of 1.259 over a ten game span, I wrote a post asking Is it time for Starling Marte to be called up?. In the post I asked four questions to find out if and when Marte should be called up, and if there are other factors in his promotion. The questions were: 1.) Would the Pirates be rushing Marte to the majors?, 2.) How will Presley and Tabata be doing by the end of July?, 3.) Will they trade for another hitter?, and 4.) Will the Pirates be in contention by the end of July? I am going to answer these four questions with the current situation to once again see if it is the right time for Marte to be called up.
1.) Would the Pirates be rushing Marte to the majors?
Marte has had a total of 384 at bats at the AAA level this year, which is a good amount to determine how a player can handle pitching at that level. But, is it enough to determine if a player can handle major league pitching? In my early July post, I talked about Pedro Alvarez, who was rushed to the majors, and Andrew McCutchen, who the Pirates were patient with. Alvarez had 242 at bats in AAA, while McCutchen had 780. For a prospect of Alvarez's status, 242 at bats may have seemed enough at the time, as he was hitting well and was seemingly ready to contribute at the major league level. But, those 242 at bats may not have been enough for Pedro, as he has struggled a lot in the majors with strikeouts, with a career strikeout rate of 34.4%. With a number like that, it looks like Pedro was rushed and could have used more time in AAA to better his approach. In McCutchen's case, the Pirates were extremely patient with him, but it paid off in the end as he is the favorite to win the NL MVP this year. The McCutchen example will lead many people to believe that it is best for teams to give prospects a lot of experience at AAA to prove that they are ready for the jump to the majors.
With 384 at bats in AAA this year, Marte falls between Alvarez and McCutchen, in terms of at bats and experience in AAA. The Pirates rushed Alvarez a little and were extremely patient with McCutchen, and it isn't easy to determine what the right number of at bats is to see if a player is ready for the majors. For more of a reference, I looked up another recent call-up who is a similar player to Marte, and that is Anthony Gose of the Toronto Blue Jays.
Gose came into the 2012 season ranked as the #39 prospect in baseball, according to Baseball America. Just like Marte, Gose played a full season in AA last year, and he was getting his first taste of AAA this year. Before he was promoted, Gose had 377 at bats at AAA, with .808 OPS. The OPS may seem a little lower for a top prospect, but Gose is more known for his speed and his glove. The number of at bats and OPS are very similar to those of Marte, so compared to another similar top prospect, Marte is deemed ready for the majors.
In my opinion, Marte is not being rushed to the majors. 384 at bats is enough to show that Marte can handle major league pitching, and his glove is definitely ready to contribute. Only time will tell how he will fare in the majors, but after showing consistency at the plate through June and July, it doesn't appear that Marte is being rushed.
2.) How will Presley and Tabata be doing at the end of July?
They aren't doing well......Tabata was sent down to AAA where he has struggled a little, and Presley has an OBP of .270 and a .636 OPS, so there is definitely no one blocking Marte in the outfield. The Cubs series showed that the Pirates need another bat and we already have seen that Presley and Tabata aren't the answer, so hopefully Marte can fill the offensive void in left field, and provide good production along with McCutchen in center and Garrett Jones in right.
3.) Will they trade for another hitter?
This question has yet to be answered, as the only trade the Pirates have made was for left handed pitcher Wandy Rodriguez. The Pirates still have five more days to upgrade their offense, and they are looking at first baseman and outfielders. They are known to be interested in Chase Headley of the Padres, and there are rumors that the Pirates would be interested if Hunter Pence became available. A trade really wouldn't affect Marte at this point, as a new outfielder would go to right and Jones would become the first baseman. The Pirates do need an offensive upgrade, and if they can't acquire one via trade, Marte could be that upgrade.
4.) Will the Pirates be in contention by the end of July?
The Pirates are still in contention, as they are 2.5 games back in the NL Central, and 1.5 games ahead for the first wild card spot. If the Pirates want to stay in contention, they need another bat, and as I've said in the last two questions, Marte could be that bat. But, the trade for Wandy Rodriguez and Marte's promotion should not stop the Pirates from attempting to acquire another impact bat, like Chase Headley or Hunter Pence (I would prefer Pence).
The Pirates being in contention this late in the season probably contributed to management's decision to promote Marte. If the team was not in contention, it was more likely that the team would have waited until next season to promote Marte, as it may have been seen as a waste to start his arbitration clock for two months of being on a team that isn't in contention. Marte's promotion is good timing as now he is here for the pennant race, and he is an immediate upgrade from players that have played in the outfield like Drew Sutton, Alex Presley, Jose Tabata, and Josh Harrison, both offensively and defensively.
Marte is ready to contribute in the majors, and now is a good time for him to be promoted. Many people said at the beginning of July that Marte needed to show consistency throughout the month to prove he was ready for the majors. In July, he raised his OPS 22 points, hit four homers, and drove in 14 more runs. He was already major league ready with his glove, and now he has proven that he is ready with his bat. Marte is now up in the majors ready to help a team in the middle of a pennant race, and this team is in need of an impact bat that Marte could definitely provide
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
Acquisition Analysis: Wandy Rodriguez
Written by: Michael Mawhinney
What the Pirates Get: Rodriguez is an above average major league pitcher who will bring a great veteran presence to the Pirates' rotation. He has a career ERA of 4.04, but a 3.79 ERA this year and has had an ERA under 4.00 for the previous four seasons. Rodriguez will stabilize a rotation that is turning out to be more league average than elite, and there is no reason that he should regress as the season continues, as his xFIP is at a good 3.90. Rodriguez has a big contract, but with the Astros paying for some of it each year, the Pirates will only be paying $1.7 Million in 2012, $8.5M in 2013, and $7.5M in 2014 if Wandy exercises his player option. However, at 33 years-old, Rodriguez could show some performance drop ove.r the next couple of seasons.
What the Astros Get: Robbie Grossman- Grossman is the best player the Astros received in this deal. In 2011, Grossman was the first minor leaguer to score 100 runs and walk 100 times since Nick Swisher did that in 2004. Grossman started out poorly this year in the jump to AA, but since a suspension in June, he has hit extremely well with an OPS just over 1.000. Grossman has the speed to play center, but his defense profiles better in the corner positions. He has great patience at the plate and can get on base at a high rate, while hitting for modest power and a decent-good average. Upside: .290 hitter, .375+ OBP, 15-20 homers.
Rudy Owens- Owens is a major league ready pitcher that may be called up immediately for the struggling Astros. Unlike Grossman, Owens, a lefty, started the year very strong, but has scuffled lately, raising his season ERA to 3.14. Owens has pretty much average stuff, but great control makes that arsenal seem above average. Upside: Good #4 starter with an ERA around 4.00, but good control and can pitch 180+ innings a year.
Colton Cain- Cain, one of the Pirates above slot signings in the 2009 draft, is another lefty that is similar to Owens, but with a slightly higher upside. Cain has generally had good control in the minors, and doesn't allow a lot of hits, leading to a consistently low WHIP. Cain has a 4.20 ERA in 2012, and he has also missed some time due to injury. Upside: Cain has the chance for two above average pitches with his change and curve (probably only one will turn out to be above average), to go along with a fastball around 90 MPH. Overall, he could be a #3 starter that could pitch 200 innings a year, but is more likely to end up as a #4 or #5 starter if he reaches the bigs.
Who Wins?
Both teams got what they wanted in this deal. The Pirates were looking for a veteran lefty who they could control past this year, and that's exactly what they have in Wandy Rodriguez. The Astros were able to add one good prospect and two decent prospects in this deal, with Rudy Owens ready to step into the Astros' major league rotation. Initially, I thought the Pirates gave up way too much in this deal, but after reviewing the trade, it seems to be a somewhat fair deal. Grossman is a good prospect, but probably won't be ready to contribute to a major league team until 2014. Owens and Cain are both probably back of the rotation starters at best in the majors. It is good that the Astros are paying for a good amount of Wandy's contract, as that will even out the deal a little more. Personally, I would've tried to take on more of the contract instead of giving up all three of these prospects, but the Pirates did not overpay for Rodriguez. If I had to pick a winner, I would say the Astros got the better part of the deal, but there is no loser in this trade.
Overall, the Wandy Rodriguez trade was pretty fair for both sides. The Pirates have a lot of outfield and lefty pitching depth in the minors, so this deal definitely won't completely mess up the system. The acquisition of Rodriguez will only help the Pirates' rotation, with Kevin Correia and his 4.95 FIP probably out of the rotation after the trade. As we all know, prospects are far from a sure thing, and with Grossman, Owens, and Cain showing struggles at some points this year, this trade could definitely turn in favor of the Pirates. But, they could also all reach their potential, which would make the trade a great one for the Astros. Only time will tell who got the better deal, but for now it looks like both teams made a good trade.
Pirates to Acquire Wandy Rodriguez? Hopefully Not For Alen Hanson
According to Tom Singer, the beat writer for Pirates.com, the Pirates are close to acquiring Houston Astros' lefty Wandy Rodriguez. The 33 year-old Rodriguez has a career ERA of 4.04, but has had an ERA under 4.00 for five years in a row, including this year (3.79). He would be a great addition to the rotation, as he is a veteran that has provided consistently above average results. He is also very durable, starting 95 games between 2009-2011. In 2012, he leads the MLB in games started with 21.
Rodriguez is definitely going to be a good acquisition for the Pirates, but the Pirates should not give up to much for him. Shortstop prospect Alen Hanson was removed from his game earlier, so that has caused speculation that he will be involved in the deal. Kristy Robinson said that he was removed because he did not hustle out a play, but that is not confirmed. In my opinion, we should not give up Hanson, who some consider a top 50 prospect in all of the minors, for a player like Wandy Rodriguez. Yes, Rodriguez is a good MLB pitcher, but a shortstop that can hit and hit for power is very hard to find, and that's what the Pirates have with Hanson. If the Pirates were to trade Hanson, it should be for an impact player like Justin Upton, not for a pitcher who is costing the team up to $30 million over this year and maybe the next two seasons.
I'm all for acquiring Wandy, which the acquisition has now been confirmed (see below), as he will add a good veteran presence to the rotation, with probable good results. To me, he's not worth a top 50 or even top 100 prospect, so hopefully whatever is sent to Houston will not include Alen Hanson. He is worth a good prospect, someone like Rudy Owens, Justin Wilson, Jeff Locke or Matt Curry to name a few, so it would be relieving to see one of them or a player like them sent to the Astros. But welcome to the Pirates Wandy Rodriguez!
Update as I'm writing this: According to Jon Heyman, the Pirates have acquired Wandy Rodriguez. No player is mentioned, but the Astros are sending money of in the deal, which means a better prospect will be sent to the Astros. This trade has now been confirmed by many outlets.
Update 9:36 PM: Robbie Grossman is said to be the player headed to the Astros.
Rodriguez is definitely going to be a good acquisition for the Pirates, but the Pirates should not give up to much for him. Shortstop prospect Alen Hanson was removed from his game earlier, so that has caused speculation that he will be involved in the deal. Kristy Robinson said that he was removed because he did not hustle out a play, but that is not confirmed. In my opinion, we should not give up Hanson, who some consider a top 50 prospect in all of the minors, for a player like Wandy Rodriguez. Yes, Rodriguez is a good MLB pitcher, but a shortstop that can hit and hit for power is very hard to find, and that's what the Pirates have with Hanson. If the Pirates were to trade Hanson, it should be for an impact player like Justin Upton, not for a pitcher who is costing the team up to $30 million over this year and maybe the next two seasons.
I'm all for acquiring Wandy, which the acquisition has now been confirmed (see below), as he will add a good veteran presence to the rotation, with probable good results. To me, he's not worth a top 50 or even top 100 prospect, so hopefully whatever is sent to Houston will not include Alen Hanson. He is worth a good prospect, someone like Rudy Owens, Justin Wilson, Jeff Locke or Matt Curry to name a few, so it would be relieving to see one of them or a player like them sent to the Astros. But welcome to the Pirates Wandy Rodriguez!
Update as I'm writing this: According to Jon Heyman, the Pirates have acquired Wandy Rodriguez. No player is mentioned, but the Astros are sending money of in the deal, which means a better prospect will be sent to the Astros. This trade has now been confirmed by many outlets.
Update 9:36 PM: Robbie Grossman is said to be the player headed to the Astros.
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
Pirates Should Prioritize Pitching Help
The trade deadline is now less than two weeks away and the Pirates are said to be aggressively pursuing trades on all fronts. Here I will outline what deals the Pirates should prioritize. For a long time this year, the Pirates offense was historically bad. However, the Pirates offense has been incredibly hot recently and is now ranked 10th in OPS and 9th in runs scored in the NL. The Pirates pitching started off as one of the top three pitching staffs by ERA this year in MLB, but with more pitching struggles lately, they have fallen to 5th in ERA in the National League, with a 3.53 ERA. This is a good ERA, but there are some serious red flags when it comes to this rotation. Among the four pitchers who have pitched the whole season, there has been a good deal of luck. James McDonald's ERA this year is 2.59, while his FIP-Fielding Independant Pitching, which removes luck from the equation is 3.19. James McDonald has been good this year, but not quite as good as his ERA indicates, and as I speak he is getting shelled by the Rockies. A.J. Burnett has a comparable ERA to his FIP (3.78 v. 3.44). Erik Bedard has a 4.55 ERA and a 4.01 FIP, so he has actually been unlucky to this point. Kevin Correia has a 4.25 ERA and a 5.02 FIP on the year, so he has been very lucky to this point. Overall, the Pirates pitching staff has been lucky so far this year, so it is clear that the Pirates need to go out and get someone to stabilize the rotation. The Pirates only have one lefty in the rotation and he is not dominant, so it would be in the Pirates best interest to acquire a good lefty starter. The two names that have appeared in trade rumors who are good fits are Jon Lester and Cole Hamels. Cole Hamels has a 3.29 FIP, and a 2.6 WAR which would be the best among Pirates pitchers this year, followed by James McDonald's 2.4 WAR. Jon Lester has had a "down year" according to the average fan, but looking at his advanced statistics, he is clearly still the dominant lefty ace that he has always been. He has a 4.80 ERA on the year, but has a 3.68 FIP and a 2.4 WAR. It sounds like he does not have the best relationship with the Red Sox as well, so they may be looking to deal him and with him having a "down year" according to his record (5-7) and ERA, he may be able to be had at a reasonable cost. The Pirates would be best served going hard after one of these two lefty aces that will help them in this year's pennant chase.
Saturday, July 7, 2012
Optimizing the 25-Man Roster, Without Trades
Written by: Michael Mawhinney
The Pirates are 46-37 and currently first place in the NL Central with about half of the season remaining. They lead the Cincinnati Reds by one game now after the Pirates lost a close game to the San Francisco Giants, and Bronson Arroyo pitched a three-hit shutout against the San Diego Padres. The Pirates were in a similar place last season, where they were seven games over .500 and first in the NL Central in mid to late July. That team then ended up going 19-43 to finish out the season, and finished with the eighth worst record in the MLB, at 72-90. But, the 2012 team seems to be much different than last years team. This year, the Pirates have a pitching staff that is lead by a legitimate ace in James McDonald, who has learned a lot from veteran A.J. Burnett, who is also in the midst of a great season. The rest of the rotation is made up of veterans Jeff Karstens, Kevin Correia, and Erik Bedard, who unlike last year, should be able to maintain their current level of play. To go with this pitching staff, the Pirates have an offense that led the NL in runs scored during the month of June, and they seem to be keeping that pace into July, despite having the MLB's worst offense throughout the first two months of the season. With a pitching staff full of veterans and a drastically improving offense, it looks like the Pirates can stay in contention for the playoffs. But, as we saw last year, the team could completely fall apart and head towards yet another losing season. In order to avoid that, the Pirates need to optimize their roster, and they can do that right now with the prospects and veterans that they have on their AAA roster (the AAA Indianapolis Indians currently have the best record in the International League at 55-33). This is the roster that should give the Pirates their best chance at contending for a playoff run, and is built completely out of players that are already in the system.
Catcher- Michael McKenry: McKenry has been the backup catcher for the entire season, but Barajas has not performed well so far, with a -0.5 WAR on the season. As a backup, McKenry's WAR is 0.8, and much of that can be attributed to his offense. McKenry's OPS is .799 in 100 at bats so far this season, and an OPS+ of 119 (average is 100). McKenry is playing better defense than Barajas and brings a lot of positive energy to the team.
First Base- Casey McGehee: McGehee got off to a very slow start in 2012, but had a great month of June where he put up a line of .291/.360/.532, with five homers and an .891 OPS. He won't be able to keep that up, but anything near that would be good for the rest of the season. A player that should get a good amount of starts as well at first is Jeff Clement. He is having a great season in AAA, where he has a .893 OPS with 12 home runs and 25 doubles. His offense could be better than any other first base option the Pirates have, and a platoon of right handed McGehee and left handed Clement could be a great idea.
Second Base- Neil Walker: This is an obvious choice, as the Pittsburgh Kid is having a relatively good season, with an OPS+ of 104, but he needs to hit for more power to better his offensive impact.
Third Base- Pedro Alvarez: Since mid-June, Alvarez has been on fire. He is currently having his best offensive year in the majors, with a .792 OPS, 117 OPS+, and a 2.0 WAR to this point. Alvarez has the third most home runs of any third baseman in the MLB, and has been getting a lot of clutch hits recently. He also has been playing stellar defense this year, with a 0.9 dWAR this season.
Shortstop- Jordy Mercer: Mercer may not really deserve this position, but he deserves it more than anyone else in the organization. Barmes has been absolutely horrible this year, with an OPS of .524 and an OPS+ of 45. That's really mind boggling that Barmes is still going out there everyday as the starting shortstop. There is really no reason to put a guy who has a WAR of -0.6 and who hasn't been playing good defense in the lineup everyday, as he only hurts the club. Mercer has a .778 OPS in 209 AAA at bats this year, has some power, and is a competent defender at short. He hasn't been playing at all when in the majors, but there is no way he could be hitting worse than Barmes. Even Chase D'Arnaud did a better job at the plate last year than Barmes has done this year.
Left Field- Starling Marte: I recently tried to decide if Marte is re ady to come up in my recent article Is It Time for Starling Marte to be Called Up?. Dejan Kovacevic said that he was told by a high ranking official for the Pirates that Marte will be called up soon. Marte, the top hitting prospect in the organization, should be an instant upgrade on offense and defense. He's hitting for a .289/.348/.497 line, with nine homers, 18 stolen bases, and an .845 OPS. He had a .944 OPS in the month of June, and is showing more consistency that will allow him to succeed in the majors.
Center Field- Andrew McCutchen: .360/.413/.610, 108 hits, 16 homers, 56 RBI, 14 stolen bases, 1.023 OPS, 181 OPS+, league leader in total bases, 4.0 WAR in 79 games. #MVP #MVP #MVP #MVP #MVP
Right Field- Garrett Jones: Jones has done a good job batting almost exclusively against right handed pitchers, with a .283/.305/.551 line and a .855 OPS against right handers. He still struggles too much against lefties to always start against a lefty, but is a very good option against righties. Josh Harrison or Alex Presley could start some games in right if there is a tough lefty on the mound.
Bench- Rod Barajas, Jeff Clement, Josh Harrison, Alex Presley, Clint Barmes: Barajas is still usable behind the plate and adds good leadership and the ability to work with the pitching staff. Jeff Clement has been tearing the cover off the ball in AAA and should get a good amount of starts at first base. Josh Harrison can play second, third, short, and right field, and can provide decent defense and timely hits if needed, but he is not a major league starter. Presley is not hitting well this year, but still shows the ability to hit major league pitching, and could be good as a pinch hitter and occasional starter. Barmes has been horrible this season, but he has been a good defender in the past and it's good to have another middle infielder on the bench.
#1 Starter- James Mcdonald: J-Mac has been having a great season, with a 2.45 ERA coming into his July 7th start, with a .197 average against. He has turned into a legitimate ace this season, and the fact that he is not on the all-star team is really unbelievable.
#2 Starter- A.J. Burnett: The Burnett trade has proven to be one of GM Neal Huntington's finest, as he has done a great job for the Pirates this season. Outside of his 2.2 IP, 12 run start in early May, he has had a 2.57 ERA. He won eight straight starts before his no decision in his last start, which has not be done by a Pirate since the 1970's.
#3 Starter- Jeff Karstens: Karstens is coming off a fantastic start against the Astros, where he went eight shutout innings, throwing only 89 pitches. He had a 3.38 ERA in 2011, and is starting to look like that pitcher again after his last couple starts.
#4 Starter- Jeff Locke: Either Locke or Rudy Owens would be a good option here, but I would personally go with Locke. Both are putting up similar stats in AAA; Owens has a 2.89 ERA and Locke has a 2.92 ERA. I'm going with Locke here because he already has some experience at the major league level, and he also has a higher upside than Rudy Owens. Both of these guys would be an upgrade over Kevin Correia, and if the Pirates stay in contention, either Locke or Owens must be called up because a team cannot compete in the playoffs with Correia in the rotation.
5 Starter- Erik Bedard: Bedard has really struggled over the past ten or so starts, but he showed early in the season that he could be a very good major league pitcher. He should be given a lot of time off over the all-star break, and maybe this will help him clear his head and return to the pitcher he was in April.
Long Reliever- Jared Hughes: Hughes has done a great job in the bullpen this year (2.09 ERA in 43 IP), and after he spent his first five seasons in the minors as a starter, it makes sense to use him as a long reliever. Hopefully the Pirates find someone to tried Correia to, but if they don't, he could be an option here as well.
Middle Relievers- Tony Watson, Chris Resop, Justin Wilson: Watson, a lefty, has done a pretty good job out of the bullpen, with a 1.23 WHIP in 36 appearances so far. He has been used mostly against lefties, but should not be used as a lefty specialist. Resop has definitely had his share of struggles over the past two years, but he still has runs where he can be a very good reliever. He should be the last option out of the bullpen, but he is a good last option. The last middle reliever is Justin Wilson. Wilson is currently a starter in AAA, where he has a 3.34 ERA in 17 starts. He has some of the best stuff in the system, but has struggled with control throughout his career. When his control in working, he is very hard to hit and he can get a lot of strikeouts. He pitched a little in the bullpen last year in AAA, and did a great job. Out of the bullpen, his fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's, and he also has good secondary pitches to fall back on. He still could be a starter in the future, but is behind Locke and Owens at this point.
Set Up Men (late innings)- Brad Lincoln, Jason Grilli: Lincoln can really be used anywhere in the bullpen, and I still feel he could be a good major league starter. He has done too well as a reliever and been too inconsistent as a starter, so there is no reason to take him out of the bullpen. Lincoln has the makings of a future closer, with a 0.36 ERA in 25 innings as a reliever this year. Grilli has been great out of the set up role this year, with a 1.93 ERA and 14.1 K/9 so far this year. If Hanrahan gets injured or is traded, either of these pitchers would be great closing options.
Closer- Joel Hanrahan: Hanrahan is the clear closer for the Pirates, as he is in the middle of his second straight all star season. Coming into July 7th, Hanrahan is fifth in the majors in saves, and has a 2.45 ERA. His strikeout rate is up from last year, but his walk rate is way up as well, now at 4.9. The closer position is very over valued in the majors, and I think the Pirates should try to trade Hanrahan at the trade deadline, as he would bring back a great return.
Optimal 25 Man Roster:
C- Mckenry
1B- McGehee
2B- Walker
3B- Alvarez
SS- Mercer
LF- Marte
CF- McCutchen
RF- Jones
Bench- Barajas, Clement, Harrison, Presley, Barmes
#1- McDonald
#2- Burnett
#3- Karstens
#4- Locke
#5- Bedard
LR- Hughes
MRs- Watson, Resop, Wilson
SU- Lincoln, Grilli
CL- Hanrahan
Best Lineup:
1.) Starling Marte-LF
2.) Neil Walker- 2B
3.) Andrew McCutchen- CF
4.) Garrett Jones- RF
5.) Pedro Alvarez- 3B
6.) Jeff Clement- 1B
7.) Jordy Mercer- SS
8.) Michael McKenry- C
If the Pirates want to make the best playoff run they can, then this is the team they should go with. There are some wild cards, including Clement, Marte, and Locke, and if these guys produce at what they are capable of, then they will be huge upgrades to what the Pirates currently have. This above team could be a dangerous team on both offense and defense, and could lead the Pirates deep into October.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
Money more important than wins?
I have always defended the Pirates since Bob Nutting took over as owner, saying that he cared far more about winning than money. I still hold that belief for the most part, but the way Neal Huntington and Clint Hurdle go about their business makes me question this. For example, look at the countless number of opportunities that Clint Barmes gets even though he clearly has very little in the tank, particularly with the bat. Barmes is getting paid a significant sum of money for not only this year, but next, so they will do anything to make sure that that investment delivers some sort of return. The argument can be made there, however, that no other shortstop is ready to take over at the big league level, but honestly, how do they know if they never give Jordy Mercer a chance? The other evidence I have for this is the pitching situation. There are two big holes in the rotation with Kevin Correia and Erik Bedard, but every 5th day those guys still get the ball. They both are under contract for the rest of the year making a decent sum of money-a lot more money than the trio of AAA pitchers that are leading the International league best Indianapolis Indians. Jeff Locke, Rudy Owens, and Justin Wilson all deserve a chance to start at the big league level now, but none of them are being given a chance because they don't want to take guys who are making good money out of the rotation. This is truly ridiculous and if the Pirates want to make the playoffs, they are going to need to start making their decisions based on winning and not on money.
Sunday, July 1, 2012
Is It Time for Starling Marte to be Called Up?
At the beginning of the season, I wrote a post about when Starling Marte should be called up, that can be found here. In that article, I said that there were two factors that could affect Marte's promotion to the majors. The first factor was how Marte performed. If he continued to hit like he did in AA, then Marte deserved to be called up sometime in June. The second factor was how Presley and Tabata performed. If they struggled and Marte was performing well, then it would increase the likelihood that Marte would be brought up to the majors. To this point, Marte has performed well at AAA, although not up to some of the expectations fans had for him coming into the season. His season line coming into July 1st is at .284/.343/.483, with an OPS of .826, eight homers, 47 RBI, and 16 stolen bases. Those numbers have been increased since mid-June because of a .419 average and 1.259 OPS in his last ten games. With Presley and Tabata both struggling mightily in the majors, more and more fans are starting to call for the Pirates to call up the top hitting prospect and number four prospect in the system. But, is it time for Starling Marte to be called up?
Marte has been inconsistent with his offensive performance this season, going on streaks where he is hitting the ball very well, like the hot streak he is currently on, but then he goes cold and his average falls back to around .260-.270. His OPS for each month has been: April-.830, May-.653, June-.944. If he can hit like he did in April or June for another month, there's a good chance that he will get the call by the end of July. But, there are some questions that could affect the decision on whether or not to call up Marte. These questions are: 1) Are they rushing him?, 2) How will Presley and Tabata be doing by the end of July?, 3) Will they trade for another hitter? , 4) Will the Pirates be in contention by the end of July?
1.) Would the Pirates be rushing Marte to the majors?
To answer this question, I will look at two players currently playing for the Pirates, one that was rushed, and one where the Pirates were patient with his development. The player that was rushed is Pedro Alvarez. Alvarez had only 242 at bats for AAA Indianapolis before he was called up to the majors in 2010. He is a different case than Marte because he was drafted as a college hitter, but its still worthwhile to look at his situation. In those 242 at bats, Pedro had a line of .277/.363/.533, with an .896 OPS, 13 homers, and 53 RBI. As the #8 prospect in baseball at the time according to Baseball America, it seemed like the right time to call him up. But, he was striking out at an alarming rate of 28.1%. Prospects that strikeout at high rates in the minors will mostly continue that into the majors, which in a lot of cases will lead to initial struggles in the majors. So far in the majors, Alvarez has struck out in 34.4% of his at bats. It most likely would have benefited Alvarez to stay in the minors for a little longer to work on his discipline and to better recognize breaking pitches. Currently, Marte has a 23.0% strikeout rate, and has been known to chase pitches out of the zone and struggle with breaking pitches as well, and this probably would not improve in the majors. With the way Alvarez struggled in his first few years in the majors, it looks like he was unnecessarily rushed to the Pirates, and should have had a little more time in the minors. Since Marte is struggling with some of the same things that Alvarez struggled with in AAA, it looks like Marte could use some more time in AAA.
Now let's look at the player the Pirates had patience with: Andrew McCutchen. McCutchen is the star of the Pirates, and could be considered one of the best all-around players in the MLB. McCutchen played parts of three seasons in AAA, with a total of 780 at bats. Cutch never had problems with strikeouts in AAA, but he wasn't hitting for power in his first full season there and he could have used some work on his base running, so the Pirates kept him down so he could work on his struggles. This approach seemed to work out, as he has now become one of the best players in the majors.
The last thing the Pirates want to do with top prospect Starling Marte is rush him to the majors. His long term upside is too high for him to be rushed, and if he was called up right now, it would be too soon. If he can show consistency at the plate through July, shows a better understanding of the strike zone, and can recognize breaking balls better, there would be a good argument that he was not getting rushed.
2) How will Presley and Tabata be doing by the end of July?
Presley and Tabata were supposed to be good leadoff options for the Pirates this year, but neither has posted an OBP of over .300, with Presley's at .272 and Tabata's at .296. But, a lot could change over the next month. This may not matter much, but Presley just hit a triple as I was writing this question. Tabata followed that up with a weak grounder to the second baseman, so there's that. But, as we've seen with players like Marte and Alvarez, players can go on streaks where they are killing the ball, and fans start to support them more. Presley or Tabata, or maybe both of them, could go on a hot streak where they would hit over .300 and drastically improve their season stats. If both of them did this and Marte stayed around his current line of .284/.343/.483, I bet there would be a lot less calls by fans for Marte to be called up. But, with the way Presley and Tabata have been hitting this year, especially Tabata, this would be very unlikely to happen. Manager Clint Hurdle has recently stated that Jose may be near a demotion to AAA, and it would make sense for Marte to be called up to take his spot, especially without a better option to fill in the void in the outfield. The Pirates will probably give Tabata at least a couple more weeks to see how he responds to Hurdle's challenge, and if he doesn't improve, we could be seeing a Tabata-Marte switch. For this to happen, however, Marte would need to prove to management that he is ready for the majors, as well.
3) Will they trade for another hitter?
It has been made well known that the Pirates are looking to add offense via the trade market. One player the Pirates have been linked to is Chase Headley, who has experience in left field in his career. If the Pirates acquired an outfielder, this would obviously take away a spot that Marte could be called up to fill. Acquiring an outfielder would lessen the need for Marte to be called up, especially if Presley or Tabata really heat up at the plate. If the Pirates are still contending by the end of July, it is very likely they will be looking to add an offensive upgrade in the outfield. This leads to the next question...
4) Will the Pirates be in contention by the end of July?
If the Pirates are in contention by the end of July, the likelihood of Marte being promoted would most likely increase. It would increase because the Pirates could use a player of his caliber to help in a playoff race. The Pirates will need to call up Marte before September if they wanted to use him in the playoffs, and calling him up before August would give him more time to adjust to major league pitching and get him more ready for the playoffs. Again, Marte would still need to prove to management that he is ready to be promoted to the bigs.
If the Pirates are not in contention by the end of July and they have another collapse like they did last year, then there is really no point to call him up this late in the season. The extra month and a half would give him a lot of time to work on his struggles with the strike zone and recognizing breaking pitches at a level that he can gain valuable experience. Using the Andrew McCutchen situation again as an example, the Pirates did not call Cutch up just to improve a team that had no chance of contention in the short term. They kept him down in AAA where he could work on any struggles that he needed to.
It is likely that the Pirates will still be in contention by the end of July with the way the team has been playing this year, but that does not necessarily mean that Marte will be called up. Marte could go on a cold streak, Presley or Tabata could heat up, and the team could also acquire in outfielder in a trade, so there is no guarantee that Marte will get the call if the team is in contention.
With all these questions considered, I would say it is more likely that we see Marte in Pittsburgh rather than Indianapolis by the end of the season. Right now, the team would be rushing Marte if he was promoted, but an extra month in AAA could do a lot of good for Marte. He has been working on recognizing breaking balls as of late, and has been improving on that. Management would like to see Marte show more consistency at the plate before they give him the call, and if he continues the great success he had in June, it will be hard to keep him down in AAA. If Marte stays around where he is right now offensively and Presley and Tabata continue to get on a base at a low rate, then Marte's chances of a promotion are greatly increased, especially if the team is still in contention.
Marte has a lot of offensive upside and would already be the best outfield defender the Pirates have in the majors, but he is not quite ready to be promoted yet. He is very close, though, and all it may take is one more month of consistent hitting at the AAA level.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
Marte has been inconsistent with his offensive performance this season, going on streaks where he is hitting the ball very well, like the hot streak he is currently on, but then he goes cold and his average falls back to around .260-.270. His OPS for each month has been: April-.830, May-.653, June-.944. If he can hit like he did in April or June for another month, there's a good chance that he will get the call by the end of July. But, there are some questions that could affect the decision on whether or not to call up Marte. These questions are: 1) Are they rushing him?, 2) How will Presley and Tabata be doing by the end of July?, 3) Will they trade for another hitter? , 4) Will the Pirates be in contention by the end of July?
1.) Would the Pirates be rushing Marte to the majors?
To answer this question, I will look at two players currently playing for the Pirates, one that was rushed, and one where the Pirates were patient with his development. The player that was rushed is Pedro Alvarez. Alvarez had only 242 at bats for AAA Indianapolis before he was called up to the majors in 2010. He is a different case than Marte because he was drafted as a college hitter, but its still worthwhile to look at his situation. In those 242 at bats, Pedro had a line of .277/.363/.533, with an .896 OPS, 13 homers, and 53 RBI. As the #8 prospect in baseball at the time according to Baseball America, it seemed like the right time to call him up. But, he was striking out at an alarming rate of 28.1%. Prospects that strikeout at high rates in the minors will mostly continue that into the majors, which in a lot of cases will lead to initial struggles in the majors. So far in the majors, Alvarez has struck out in 34.4% of his at bats. It most likely would have benefited Alvarez to stay in the minors for a little longer to work on his discipline and to better recognize breaking pitches. Currently, Marte has a 23.0% strikeout rate, and has been known to chase pitches out of the zone and struggle with breaking pitches as well, and this probably would not improve in the majors. With the way Alvarez struggled in his first few years in the majors, it looks like he was unnecessarily rushed to the Pirates, and should have had a little more time in the minors. Since Marte is struggling with some of the same things that Alvarez struggled with in AAA, it looks like Marte could use some more time in AAA.
Now let's look at the player the Pirates had patience with: Andrew McCutchen. McCutchen is the star of the Pirates, and could be considered one of the best all-around players in the MLB. McCutchen played parts of three seasons in AAA, with a total of 780 at bats. Cutch never had problems with strikeouts in AAA, but he wasn't hitting for power in his first full season there and he could have used some work on his base running, so the Pirates kept him down so he could work on his struggles. This approach seemed to work out, as he has now become one of the best players in the majors.
The last thing the Pirates want to do with top prospect Starling Marte is rush him to the majors. His long term upside is too high for him to be rushed, and if he was called up right now, it would be too soon. If he can show consistency at the plate through July, shows a better understanding of the strike zone, and can recognize breaking balls better, there would be a good argument that he was not getting rushed.
2) How will Presley and Tabata be doing by the end of July?
Presley and Tabata were supposed to be good leadoff options for the Pirates this year, but neither has posted an OBP of over .300, with Presley's at .272 and Tabata's at .296. But, a lot could change over the next month. This may not matter much, but Presley just hit a triple as I was writing this question. Tabata followed that up with a weak grounder to the second baseman, so there's that. But, as we've seen with players like Marte and Alvarez, players can go on streaks where they are killing the ball, and fans start to support them more. Presley or Tabata, or maybe both of them, could go on a hot streak where they would hit over .300 and drastically improve their season stats. If both of them did this and Marte stayed around his current line of .284/.343/.483, I bet there would be a lot less calls by fans for Marte to be called up. But, with the way Presley and Tabata have been hitting this year, especially Tabata, this would be very unlikely to happen. Manager Clint Hurdle has recently stated that Jose may be near a demotion to AAA, and it would make sense for Marte to be called up to take his spot, especially without a better option to fill in the void in the outfield. The Pirates will probably give Tabata at least a couple more weeks to see how he responds to Hurdle's challenge, and if he doesn't improve, we could be seeing a Tabata-Marte switch. For this to happen, however, Marte would need to prove to management that he is ready for the majors, as well.
3) Will they trade for another hitter?
It has been made well known that the Pirates are looking to add offense via the trade market. One player the Pirates have been linked to is Chase Headley, who has experience in left field in his career. If the Pirates acquired an outfielder, this would obviously take away a spot that Marte could be called up to fill. Acquiring an outfielder would lessen the need for Marte to be called up, especially if Presley or Tabata really heat up at the plate. If the Pirates are still contending by the end of July, it is very likely they will be looking to add an offensive upgrade in the outfield. This leads to the next question...
4) Will the Pirates be in contention by the end of July?
If the Pirates are in contention by the end of July, the likelihood of Marte being promoted would most likely increase. It would increase because the Pirates could use a player of his caliber to help in a playoff race. The Pirates will need to call up Marte before September if they wanted to use him in the playoffs, and calling him up before August would give him more time to adjust to major league pitching and get him more ready for the playoffs. Again, Marte would still need to prove to management that he is ready to be promoted to the bigs.
If the Pirates are not in contention by the end of July and they have another collapse like they did last year, then there is really no point to call him up this late in the season. The extra month and a half would give him a lot of time to work on his struggles with the strike zone and recognizing breaking pitches at a level that he can gain valuable experience. Using the Andrew McCutchen situation again as an example, the Pirates did not call Cutch up just to improve a team that had no chance of contention in the short term. They kept him down in AAA where he could work on any struggles that he needed to.
It is likely that the Pirates will still be in contention by the end of July with the way the team has been playing this year, but that does not necessarily mean that Marte will be called up. Marte could go on a cold streak, Presley or Tabata could heat up, and the team could also acquire in outfielder in a trade, so there is no guarantee that Marte will get the call if the team is in contention.
With all these questions considered, I would say it is more likely that we see Marte in Pittsburgh rather than Indianapolis by the end of the season. Right now, the team would be rushing Marte if he was promoted, but an extra month in AAA could do a lot of good for Marte. He has been working on recognizing breaking balls as of late, and has been improving on that. Management would like to see Marte show more consistency at the plate before they give him the call, and if he continues the great success he had in June, it will be hard to keep him down in AAA. If Marte stays around where he is right now offensively and Presley and Tabata continue to get on a base at a low rate, then Marte's chances of a promotion are greatly increased, especially if the team is still in contention.
Marte has a lot of offensive upside and would already be the best outfield defender the Pirates have in the majors, but he is not quite ready to be promoted yet. He is very close, though, and all it may take is one more month of consistent hitting at the AAA level.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
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