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Sunday, November 4, 2012

The Case For Travis Snider

If you're reading this, you may have noticed that I haven't posted anything since the trade deadline.  It wasn't because the Pirates started to struggle not long after the deadline, I have just been very busy with work, school, and sports.  I will try to start posting more from now on for Bloggin Buccos.

Now on to the post.  The Pirates acquired Travis Snider from the Blue Jays at this year's trading deadline in exchange for reliever Brad Lincoln, and you can see my analysis of that trade in this link.  Snider struggled after the trade, with a batting line of .250/.324/.328, along with a .652 OPS and only one home run.  The biggest disappointment of his time with the Pirates was his power production, which can be seen with his .328 slugging percentage and .078 ISO (SLG-AVG, used to determine a player's isolated power).  He had only seven extra base hits in 128 at bats, and this is coming after a career .565 slugging percentage in 696 at bats at the AAA level.  Expectations were much higher for him from most fans, but Snider will still only be 25 years old for all of the 2013 season, so there is still time for that power to be shown for the Pirates.
2010 was the best year in the majors for Snider, and that came when he was only 22 years old.  He had a batting line of .255/.304/.463, with a .767 OPS and 14 home runs in 298 at bats.  If I estimate the average number of at bats from an entire season to be 550 at bats, Snider's home run production in 2010 would be about 26 home runs at this number of at bats.  That's a pretty good number for such a young player in the AL East, and would have put him among the best power hitters for the Pirates in 2012.  This may not mean much, but the point I'm trying to get across is that the power is there with Snider.  He has the ability to change a game with one swing of the bat, with possibly the second best raw power on the team, behind only Pedro Alvarez.  And, the only way that Snider is going to be able to reach this power potential is by getting the chance to play everyday.

The only guaranteed outfield spot heading into the 2013 season obviously is held by center fielder Andrew McCutchen, with the competition still wide open for left and right field.  It is doubtful the Pirates pursue a starting outfielder in free agency this offseason, which means the players fighting for these two positions will be Snider, Starling Marte, Alex Presley and Jose Tabata.  Marte was about as expected in his debut, with a 104 OPS+ (100 being average), but had a very high, Alvarez-esque strikeout rate of 29.9%.  Regardless of that stat, he will most likely get the chance to be the everyday starting left fielder going into the 2013 season. Presley and Tabata both had their fair share of struggles in 2012, with -0.1 and -0.2 WAR values, respectively.  Tabata did have a higher on base percentage, however, with a .315 mark, compared to Presley's .279.  Snider's on base percentage of .324 with the Pirates was the highest out of this group.

Assuming that Marte will being the starting left fielder in 2013, the competition comes down to Alex Presley, Jose Tabata, and Travis Snider.  This is a group of young players that have yet to play a full season in the majors.  So, who deserves the job?  Let's look at what each player can bring to the table.
Alex Presley: Presley is a speedy outfielder who has had some success at the major league level back in 2011 when he put up an .804 OPS.  However, he really struggled to get on base in 2012, and a lot of these struggles came as the leadoff hitter, where he had a .283 OBP in 243 at bats.  He did hit for some power, with ten homers in 346 at bats, but his long term upside might be as a good fourth outfielder.
Jose Tabata: Tabata had an impressive rookie season in 2010 when he finished 8th in rookie of the year voting, but his production has diminished since then.  He had a very disappointing first half in 2012, with a line of .230/.295/.341, along with a .636 OPS in 252 at bats.  But, he came on strong in limited time in the second half of the season after time in the minors, with a line of .284/.376/.370 and a .747 OPS in 81 at bats.  Tabata signed a six year, $14.75 million deal in 2011, along with three option years that could keep him with the team until 2019.  Tabata was once the #27 prospect in baseball, according to Baseball America, back in 2007, and #75 in 2009.  He contract was very team friendly when he signed, and his struggles have come before his age 24 season.  He still has a lot of time to return to his 2010 form and even better himself from that, but he may benefit from some time in the minors to work out some problems.  If not, Tabata's potential upside and team possible team friendly deal could allow him to be a trade piece over the offseason.
Travis Snider: There is no doubt that Travis Snider has the highest upside out of these three players.  He has the potential to be a .280 hitter, along with 25-35 home runs a year.  He has a career .976 OPS in AAA and has been able to get on base at all levels, and I personally believe that most people who have consistent success in AAA will find success in the MLB if given ample opportunities.  Snider has never been given more than 298 at bats in five years in the majors, and when he did get 298 at bats, he had a .767 OPS and 14 homers as a 22 year old.  Snider has the chance to join McCutchen, Alvarez and Jones in what could be a formidable middle of the order threat for the Pirates.  But, Snider isn't going to be able to reach his potential by watching the game from the bench.  In many other activities, you can learn a lot from watching, but in baseball, you are only going to improve by getting consistent playing time.  Snider brings so much more to the plate than either Tabata or Presley, and it would be foolish to waste the natural talent that Snider has.  The Pirates haven't had four players with 25+ home runs on the same team for a long time, if not for the first time ever, and Snider is the only guy in the system that could help the team accomplish this.

Travis Snider has the potential to be an all-star, and at 25 years old, he has plenty of time to develop into the player that he has the chance to be.  But, the only way he can do this is by getting the opportunity to play everyday.  Tabata and Presley don't have the upside that Snider has, and the best route for the Pirates with these three players heading into 2013 is starting Snider in right, using Presley as the fourth outfielder, and allowing Tabata to work out his struggles in AAA.  This gives the Pirates the best opportunity to have a legitimate offensive threat, with McCutchen, Alvarez, Jones, Walker, and Snider and Marte if they can even approach their potential.
Snider could be the next power hitting all-star from the Pirates, but the only way to find out if he can do this is by giving him the chance to succeed by playing everyday.

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.