After waiting a few days for the deal to be finalized, the Pirates and Red Sox completed a deal that sent closer Joel Hanrahan and infielder Brock Holt to the Red Sox in exchange for OF/1B Jerry Sands, reliever Mark Melancon, RHP Stolmy Pimentel, and infielder Ivan DeJesus Jr.
What the Pirates Get:
The Pirates received two players that should definitely be on their major league roster in 2013, another player who has a chance to be on the roster at some point, and a starting pitcher that should start in AA.
The two almost-guaranteed major leaguers are Jerry Sands and Mark Melancon, with DeJesus Jr. most likely starting in AAA and Pimentel starting in the AA rotation.
Jerry Sands: Sands is a player who has had a lot of success at the AAA level, with a career .288/.362/.552 batting line, with 55 home runs and 195 RBI in 822 at bats. Those are fantastic power numbers, but they also are coming from the Pacific Coast League, where traditionally players' power numbers are inflated. Still, 55 homers and 195 RBI in only 822 at bats is very impressive. Sands' strikeout rate is somewhat high at 20.66% in the minors, but he draws a good amount of walks and puts up a good OBP. Defensively, Sands is best suited for right field, where his decent speed and arm would play best. He also plays first base, and has the chance to be an above average defender. Sands should at least get the chance to platoon with Garrett Jones and/or Travis Snider, as he has a .904 OPS against lefties in 79 at bats at the major league level.
Mark Melancon: Melancon has had success at the major league level before, most of it coming in 2011 when he saved 20 games for the Astros. In 2012, he seemingly took a step backwards, posting a 6.20 ERA. But if you look closer, he had good secondary numbers, with a 8.2/2.4 K/BB ratio. The number that really stands out is his 1.60 HR/9 ratio in 2012, far above his career 0.9 number, showing that some bad luck led to his inflated ERA. Melancon has good stuff, with a great two-pitch mix including a mid 90's fastball and plus curveball. He has displayed good control in the past, and the problems he has experienced seem to stem from his mentality.
Ivan DeJesus Jr.: DeJesus is a very similar player to Brock Holt, the prospect the Red Sox received in this deal. They both play middle infield, but both will most likely end up at second base because of defensive problems at shortstop. DeJesus will put up a lower average than Holt, but gets on base at a similar rate and will hit a few more homers. Both will probably steal about 10-15 bases a year as a starter, but both are better served as a good bench player or utility infielder. If I had to choose between the two, I would choose Brock Holt.
Stolmy Pimentel: Pimentel has struggled at the AA level in his age 21 and 22 seasons, with a 5.96 ERA in 166 innings, but has the ability to perform much better. He has shown good control at times and has a decent strikeout rate during his minor league career. His fastball that sits around 92-94, but he struggles to throw the pitch with consistent command. He combines his fastball with a changeup that comes in around 80 MPH, and a slider that ranges anywhere from the mid to high 80's. Both of the pitches have the chance to become plus pitches, with his changeup already rated as plus by some outlets.
What the Red Sox Get:
The Red Sox brought in a guy who has already told that he will be the team's closer in 2013, and a utility infielder that is basically interchangeable with Ivan DeJesus Jr.
Joel Hanrahan: Since he was converted to closer to begin the 2011 season, Joel Hanrahan has been one of the best closers in the majors, becoming a two time All-Star and converting 76 of 84 saves in that time. The Hammer, as he has come to be known, has a power fastball, sitting in the mid-90's, and occasionally reaching 98-99 MPH. Along with that is a plus slider that sits in the upper 80's and induces a lot of swings and misses, making for a great two pitch combo. But, his control disappeared in 2012, going from a 2.1 BB/9 in 2011 to a 5.4 BB/9 in 2012. He was still effective, but not as effective as many may think. His ERA in 2012 was 2.72, but his FIP was 4.45. Still, with the two pitch combo that Hanrahan has, he is a great addition to any team.
Brock Holt: I already covered most of what Holt brings to the table in my analysis of DeJesus. Holt is a middle infielder who should end up at second down the road if ever given an opportunity to start, but is best served as a utility infielder. He has hit for a good average at all levels in the minors, getting on base at a good rate but with no power. He does hit for a lot of doubles, and has good speed on the base paths. In 65 at bats at the major league level in 2012, Holt hit for a .292/.329/.354 line with a .682 OPS.
Who Wins?
Both teams got what they were looking for in this deal. Basically, the deal was really Joel Hanrahan for Jerry Sands, Mark Melancon, and Stolmy Pimentel, as Holt and DeJesus somewhat cancel each other out. So, Boston brought in a proven closer who will sure up the back-end of their bullpen, moving Andrew Bailey into a set-up role. The deal would work more in Boston's favor if they could sign Hanrahan to a few extra years, as he becomes a free agent at the end of the 2013 season.
Pittsburgh acquired a potential average to above average everyday player in Jerry Sands. He has a good deal of power and should be a great platoon option against lefties with a chance to eventually take over everyday duties at first or right field. Pimentel could develop into a number four or five starter, but the real wild card in this deal that could make this a win for the Pirates is Mark Melancon. When the Pirates brought in Hanrahan in 2009, he had a 7.71 ERA, but his secondary numbers showed that he was much better than that. The same situation is present with Melancon in this trade, with a 6.20 ERA but much better secondary numbers. He has a great two pitch mix with his fastball and curveball, not as good as Hanrahan's fastball slider combo, but still very effective. Neal Huntington, the Pirates GM, and pitching coach Ray Searage both have good histories with relievers, making it a better chance that Melancon succeeds for the Pirates.
The Red Sox and the Pirates could both see benefits in this trade. It would be great for the Red Sox if Hanrahan continued to be one of the best closers in the game, and be made even better if they could sign him to a few more years before he hits free agency (judging by this offseason, I would expect a three year deal worth $39 million). The trade could tip in the Pirates favor if Sands becomes an above average everyday player, and even more so if Melancon becomes the next Joel Hanrahan, which he has the potential to do with his new team.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment section below.
Wednesday, December 26, 2012
Sunday, December 9, 2012
2013 Positional Preview: Catcher
According to General Manager Neal Huntington, the Pirates have already made their biggest move of the offseason in signing catcher Russell Martin to a two-year, $17 million deal. Martin was considered the top free agent catcher, and with the catcher position being the Pirates biggest hole going into the offseason, it made sense for the Pirates to pursue and sign Martin. At first, the two-year, $17 million deal seemed slightly pricey for the numbers that Martin has put up, but after Mike Napoli's three-year, $39 million signing with the Red Sox, the Martin signing looks much more fair to the Pirates.
Another option that the Pirates could have explored to find a catcher was through a trade. Many teams are understandably hesitant to trade their young catchers, which leads to a consistently difficult trading market for the position. The Blue Jays are a team that could have been a good trade partner for the Pirates because they have a surplus of catchers at the major league level. The Blue Jays plan on top prospect Travis D'Arnaud to take over the starting catcher role in 2013, and they have JP Arencibia and recently acquired John Buck behind him on the depth chart. Arencibia would have been a great trade option for the Pirates, as he is a young player that has hit for plenty of power at the major league level. But, the Blue Jays seem to be intent on keeping all of their catchers. And outside of Travis D'Arnaud, there are very few top catching prospects in the minors that could provide an instant impact at the Major League level, and the price of those players would most likely be too high for the Pirates.
With the signing of Russell Martin, the catching tandem for the 2013 Pirates is now set. Michael McKenry, who had a fantastic first have in 2012 will back up Martin, who will get the majority of time behind the plate. Many fans wanted McKenry to be the Pirates' starting catcher for 2013 because of his offense in the first half of the season, but his final batting line was .233/.320/.442 with a .762 OPS and 12 home runs in 240 at bats. That is above average for a catcher, but was also very inflated from his first half numbers, where he
had a line of .252/.328/.524, with seven homers and an OPS of .852 in 103 at bats. But, in the second half, where McKenry got the majority of his at bats, he had a line of .219/.314/.380, with five homers and an OPS of .694 in 137 at bats. McKenry did have a good year offensively, but because of his first half numbers, many fans think he performed better than he did in reality.
Now onto Russell Martin. Martin was a promising young catcher for the Dodgers in 2007 when he put up a great offensive year as a 24 year-old, posting an .843 OPS. But after another solid offensive year in 2008, Martin has not put up an OPS of over .732 in the past four years. He was signed by the Yankees for 2011 and 2012, where he played stellar defense and hit for power, but also hit for averages of .237 and .211, the worst numbers of his career. Something that the Pirates should be concerned about is Martin's power output coming into PNC Park. With the relatively deep left field at PNC Park, some right handed hitters will see a drop-off in their power numbers, especially in Martin's case where he is coming from hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. But, even with lessened power numbers by Martin, we can expect to see his average rise from his .211 mark in 2012, and his offensive production should say about the same as it has been in recent years.
Russell Martin is a great defensive catcher, and can handle a pitching staff very well. But, similar things were said about Rod Barajas last year, and we all know how that turned out. The Pirates have not been lucky with their free agent signings, with many of them taking a turn for the worst in their careers once they come to the Pirates (Barmes, Barajas, Overbay, etc..). Martin is more productive and more durable than Barajas was, so it is doubtful that the Pirates face another Barajas situation with Martin. The Pirates could also be hopeful that Martin has a similar turnaround that A.J. Burnett experience last year after coming over to the Pirates after a few years with the Yankees in the AL East. Martin will face worse pitching in the NL Central, and also has good career numbers against NL Central teams, so this turnaround is not out of the question, but is still unlikely.
The wildcard at the catching position for the next couple years is 2009 first round pick Tony Sanchez. After a very disappointing 2011 campaign where he entered the season as Baseball America's number 46 prospect and ended as a possible "draft bust", Sanchez put up decent offensive numbers in 2012 between AA and AAA, with a combined .739 OPS. Sanchez's calling card is his defense and ability to call a game, so his offensive output will ultimately decide where his career takes him. With the two year deal that Russell Martin received, Sanchez's opportunities will be limited at the major league level unless a move is made. But, don't be surprised if Sanchez emerges as a candidate to take over the everyday catching job if Russell Martin struggles. Sanchez is going to work very hard to prove himself over this offseason and the regular season, and could regain the offensive ability that he showed in his first two seasons with the Pirates.
The signing of Russell Martin put into place the Pirates' catching duo for the next couple of seasons. Expect Martin to put up an OPS somewhere between .720 and .740, with McKenry putting up similar numbers off of the bench. Both should also handle the pitching staff very well and provide solid defense behind the plate. But, don't count out prospect Tony Sanchez over the next two years, as he has the chance to surprise some people.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment section below.
Another option that the Pirates could have explored to find a catcher was through a trade. Many teams are understandably hesitant to trade their young catchers, which leads to a consistently difficult trading market for the position. The Blue Jays are a team that could have been a good trade partner for the Pirates because they have a surplus of catchers at the major league level. The Blue Jays plan on top prospect Travis D'Arnaud to take over the starting catcher role in 2013, and they have JP Arencibia and recently acquired John Buck behind him on the depth chart. Arencibia would have been a great trade option for the Pirates, as he is a young player that has hit for plenty of power at the major league level. But, the Blue Jays seem to be intent on keeping all of their catchers. And outside of Travis D'Arnaud, there are very few top catching prospects in the minors that could provide an instant impact at the Major League level, and the price of those players would most likely be too high for the Pirates.
With the signing of Russell Martin, the catching tandem for the 2013 Pirates is now set. Michael McKenry, who had a fantastic first have in 2012 will back up Martin, who will get the majority of time behind the plate. Many fans wanted McKenry to be the Pirates' starting catcher for 2013 because of his offense in the first half of the season, but his final batting line was .233/.320/.442 with a .762 OPS and 12 home runs in 240 at bats. That is above average for a catcher, but was also very inflated from his first half numbers, where he
had a line of .252/.328/.524, with seven homers and an OPS of .852 in 103 at bats. But, in the second half, where McKenry got the majority of his at bats, he had a line of .219/.314/.380, with five homers and an OPS of .694 in 137 at bats. McKenry did have a good year offensively, but because of his first half numbers, many fans think he performed better than he did in reality.
Now onto Russell Martin. Martin was a promising young catcher for the Dodgers in 2007 when he put up a great offensive year as a 24 year-old, posting an .843 OPS. But after another solid offensive year in 2008, Martin has not put up an OPS of over .732 in the past four years. He was signed by the Yankees for 2011 and 2012, where he played stellar defense and hit for power, but also hit for averages of .237 and .211, the worst numbers of his career. Something that the Pirates should be concerned about is Martin's power output coming into PNC Park. With the relatively deep left field at PNC Park, some right handed hitters will see a drop-off in their power numbers, especially in Martin's case where he is coming from hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. But, even with lessened power numbers by Martin, we can expect to see his average rise from his .211 mark in 2012, and his offensive production should say about the same as it has been in recent years.
Russell Martin is a great defensive catcher, and can handle a pitching staff very well. But, similar things were said about Rod Barajas last year, and we all know how that turned out. The Pirates have not been lucky with their free agent signings, with many of them taking a turn for the worst in their careers once they come to the Pirates (Barmes, Barajas, Overbay, etc..). Martin is more productive and more durable than Barajas was, so it is doubtful that the Pirates face another Barajas situation with Martin. The Pirates could also be hopeful that Martin has a similar turnaround that A.J. Burnett experience last year after coming over to the Pirates after a few years with the Yankees in the AL East. Martin will face worse pitching in the NL Central, and also has good career numbers against NL Central teams, so this turnaround is not out of the question, but is still unlikely.
The wildcard at the catching position for the next couple years is 2009 first round pick Tony Sanchez. After a very disappointing 2011 campaign where he entered the season as Baseball America's number 46 prospect and ended as a possible "draft bust", Sanchez put up decent offensive numbers in 2012 between AA and AAA, with a combined .739 OPS. Sanchez's calling card is his defense and ability to call a game, so his offensive output will ultimately decide where his career takes him. With the two year deal that Russell Martin received, Sanchez's opportunities will be limited at the major league level unless a move is made. But, don't be surprised if Sanchez emerges as a candidate to take over the everyday catching job if Russell Martin struggles. Sanchez is going to work very hard to prove himself over this offseason and the regular season, and could regain the offensive ability that he showed in his first two seasons with the Pirates.
The signing of Russell Martin put into place the Pirates' catching duo for the next couple of seasons. Expect Martin to put up an OPS somewhere between .720 and .740, with McKenry putting up similar numbers off of the bench. Both should also handle the pitching staff very well and provide solid defense behind the plate. But, don't count out prospect Tony Sanchez over the next two years, as he has the chance to surprise some people.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment section below.
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