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Friday, June 29, 2012

Pirates Prospect: Brandon Cumpton

Brandon Cumpton is not a well known prospect in any way, and only die hard Pirates fans would know who he is.  Cumpton is not a high ceiling prospect either, but he has quietly put up good numbers over his first two years in the system.  In 2011, Cumpton had an ERA of 3.98 over two levels, with a 4.30 ERA in low-A, and a 3.66 ERA in high-A.  His higher ERA in low-A was due to him allowing 21 runs in his first 10.2 innings, which prompted him to move to the bullpen.  However, after an injury to teammate Tyler Waldron, a spot in the rotation opened up again and Cumpton took full advantage of this situation.  Over the next 56.1 innings, Cumpton put up a 1.76 ERA and was promoted to Bradenton where he put up a solid ERA and WHIP (1.28).
In 2012, Cumpton was moved up to AA Altoona at the age of 23, and has had a good deal of success to this point.  After a six inning outing last night where he did not allow a run and only gave up three hits, his ERA on the season stands at 3.21.  A big reason to his success this year can be attributed to his low WHIP, which is currently at 1.07.  Cumpton doesn't strikeout a lot of batters, with a K/9 of 5.7, but he doesn't allow many walks or hits, with a BB/9 of 2.2 and a 7.4 H/9.
Cumpton does not have an overpowering pitch arsenal, with a fastball that is clocked between 89-93 MPH when pitching out of the rotation, along with a generally average curveball.  But, when pitching out of the bullpen last year, Cumpton was able to reach 96 MPH with his fastball.  With his upside appearing to be that of a back of the rotation starter, it may be appealing to move Cumpton to the bullpen down the road.  If a spot opens up in the AAA Indianapolis rotation at some point this year, Cumpton should be ready to fill in that spot and could get the promotion.

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45.  If you would like to see a certain prospect profiled, then you can tweet that to me as well.

Thursday, June 28, 2012

Pirates Prospect: Matt Curry

The Pirates haven't had a long term answer at first base for a long time now.  The Pirates have had seven different regular first basemen over the last ten years, which is clearly not a good thing.  Out of any first base prospect that is currently in the Pirates' organization, Matt Curry may have the best chance to be that long term answer.  Here is my write up for him for my June top prospects.  He came in at number 18.

18.) Matt Curry (13)--1B--23
Curry spent most of 2011 in AA, so he is repeating the level this year.  In his second time around, he has a .284/.342/.438 line, with only two homers and a .779 OPS.  The Pirates do not have a proven first base prospect in their system, so Curry is as close as it gets.  If he reaches his potential, Curry could be an average to above average big league first baseman who could hit around .280 and somewhere between 15-25 home runs.  His defense isn’t great at first, but shouldn’t be a problem down the road.




Curry started the 2011 season in low-A West Virginia, but after he put up an OPS of 1.148 in 155 at bats, he was moved up two levels to AA Altoona (the Pirates wanted to give him regular playing time, and Aaron Baker was blocking him in high-A).  He struggled in his time at Altoona, with a line of .242/.320/.374, an OPS of .694, and six home runs, along with a very bad 29.8% strikeout rate.  He is repeating the level this year.
Curry was recently injured for a couple weeks, but since he has returned, he has been on a tear.  He's move his season batting line up to .294/.358/.483, with an .841 OPS and four homers.  His strikeout rate is also slightly improved from last year, at 24.9%, but it is still a little too high.  If he can consistently hit around .280-.300 with good power and extra bases, Curry could be due for a promotion to AAA Indianapolis before the end of the year, as he already has over 500 at bats at the AA level.  Currently, Jeff Clement has mostly been playing first base for the AAA team, so he would have to be moved to make room for Curry (I suggest that he is promoted to the majors and be made the regular first baseman, but that's a topic for another post).  But, I find it more likely that Curry spends the rest of the year in AA, then starts the 2013 season in AAA with a chance to move to the majors by the All-Star break. 
Most of the power that Curry possesses has come in the form of doubles this year, with 20 doubles in 201 at bats.  His slugging percentage is also at .483, so there shouldn't be much concern about his lack of home runs.  Also, with the short right field wall at PNC Park, Curry's left handed power should translate into more homers if he reaches the majors. 
As I said in my top prospect write up, Curry could be a good major leaguer with an average around .280 and around 20 home runs a year.   The Pirates have not been getting that out of their first baseman in the recent years, and having Curry would be a good boost to their offensive production.

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Pirates Prospect: Gregory Polanco

Polanco has been rising through prospect ranks this year, reaching number 15 on my list, and this has been due to a great breakout year.  Here is my write-up for Polanco on my top 30 prospects list:

15.) Gregory Polanco (NA)--OF--20
Polanco is having a breakout year in low-A West Virginia after struggling in his first few years in the organization.  It was a bit of a surprise to see him start the year in low-A after a bad year in the rookie level Gulf Coast League, but he has surpassed expectations with a .302/.360/.482 line, with nine homers and a .841 OPS in 222 at bats.  Coming into the year he was seen as a “potential five-tool talent”, and has lived up to that with his average and power, along with 16 SB’s in 20 attempts, while serving as the primary center fielder for the West Virginia Power.  Starling Marte (#4 on this list) had his breakout year for West Virginia as a 20 year old as well, and so far Gregory Polanco is putting up better offensive numbers than Marte did that year.  He doesn’t have the arm or fielding ability of Marte and isn’t quite as fast, but is a very efficient base runner who can hit for average and power.

Now, after 272 at bats, Polanco has a line of .298/.357/.482 for an OPS of .839, along with 11 home runs and 22 stolen bases.  This is a huge contrast from the rest of his career as a minor league, where his highest OPS in a season was .727 and came when he was 17 and playing in the Dominican Summer League.  Although his performance is much better than what it has been in the past, it can't really be considered a surprise.  Polanco was still a very good prospect coming into the season and was just considered raw, and the Pirates obviously had a lot of faith in his ability because they skipped him over the short season level. 
Along with hitting for a good average and good power, Polanco has a relatively good strikeout rate, currently at 18.0%.  He also has a good 8.4% walk rate to go with that strikeout rate.  Polanco's fielding has been good this year as well, with a range factor per game of 2.48 in centerfield, with the major league average at that position being 2.43 at that position. 
As I said above in my top prospect write-up for him, Polanco is having his breakout season at the same age and point in his career as top hitting prospect Starling Marte did.  Marte and Polanco are similar prospects because they were both viewed as potential five-tool prospects when they were brought into the system.  In 221 at bats in low-A as a 20 year old, Marte had a line of .312/.377/.439, with an OPS of .815, three homers, and 24 stolen bases.  Marte hit for a better average and got on base more, but Polanco has hit for more power than Marte did.  Marte was injured for long amounts of time in the lower levels of the minors, so if Polanco stays healthy he may be able to move a little faster through the system compared to Marte. 
Currently, Polanco is listed as a 6'4" and 170 lbs lefty hitter.  This means that he has a lot of room to add muscle, and this could lead to even more power in the future.  If he continues to hit for a good average and can add more to his already above average power, Polanco could be a very good prospect moving forward, and possibly a top 100 prospect in the future.  An outfielder who can hit for good average and good power, along with good fielding and good baserunning, is very valuable to an organization.  Polanco will probably remain in West Virginia for the rest of the season, but it wouldn't be out of the question to see him promoted to high-A Bradenton before the end of the season.

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45.  If you would like to see a certain prospect profiled, then you can tweet that to me as well.

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Pirates Prospect: Kirk Singer

Kirk Singeer was recently promoted to high-A Bradenton, and he has been on a tear in his short time at that level.  In seven games for the Marauders, Singer has a line of .385/.448/.615 with two homers and a 1.064 OPS.  This hot start gained Singer the Florida State League Player of the Week award and made me think if he could be a legitimate prospect for the Pirates. 
Singer was drafted in the 29th round of the 2011 draft as a strong defensive shortstop who hit terribly in his last year of college, with a .215 average and no power (.272 SLG and .057 isolated power).  He also struck out in an alarming 29.37% of his at bats.  Singer was sent to State College after he signed lasy year, where he hit .236 with a .656 OPS, while splitting time between shortstop and second base.
Singer was moved up to be the starting third baseman for low-A West Virginia this year, and his hitting did not really improve, with a .262 average and a .626 OPS.  Of his 49 hits for the Power, only eight of them went for extra bases, leading to a low .321 slugging percentage.  The organization recently made a lot of moves with call ups and send downs, and one of these was moving Singer up to high-A.  His hot start has been encouraging so far, but it has been too short of a sample size to make much out of those stats.
To make himself a legitimate prospect in the Pirates' organization, Singer has to hit a lot better.  He has mostly been a third baseman this season, where he has the arm and defense to play, but his hitting would profile much better as a shortstop.  Unless he makes some adjustments, it is doubtful that he will continue to produce a high level of offense at Bradenton.  As of now, it looks like Singer will be an organizational player with strong defense at third, short, or second, but he could change that if he can start to put up better numbers at the plate.

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45.  If you would like to see a certain prospect profiled, then you can tweet that to me as well.

Sunday, June 24, 2012

Pirates Should Try For a Kevin Youkilis Trade

Kevin Youkilis trade rumors seem to be heating up by the day, and many people say a deal could be made very soon.  The Pirates have been involved in these rumors, even though they were also rumored to be out of the trade talks (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/06/kevin-youkilis-rumors-sunday.html), and last night they were even mentioned as the second most likely team to land Youkilis (same link as above).  In my opinion, the Pirates should definitely pursue Youkilis.  He's a career .286/.388/.487 hitter (.874 OPS) in the nine seasons he has played for the Red Sox, but he probably won't come near those numbers for the Pirates.  This year, he has a line of .225/.311/.359, with four homers and a .670 OPS.  A reason why I think the Pirates should go after a player like this is that players who have come to the Pirates have the AL East in the last couple years have had a lot of success.  These players include A.J. Burnett and Derrek Lee.  The better comparison would be Lee because of the similar positions, so let's compare their situations.

Derrek Lee
Before Derrek Lee came to the Pirates last year, he was a member of the Baltimore Orioles, who play in the AL East, arguably the best division in the majors.  He was hitting for a .246/.302/.404 line with 12 homers in 334 at bats, with a .706 OPS.  He was traded to the Pirates, who play in the NL Central, arguably the weakest division in baseball, on July 31st for minor leaguer Aaron Baker, and was quickly inserted into the Pirates lineup.  After a great Pirates debut where he hit two home runs, Lee went on to hit for a .337/.398/.584 line for the Pirates, with seven homers and a .982 OPS in 101 at bats. 

His improvements: +91 points in average, +96 points in OBP, +180 points in slugging percentage, and +.276 points in OPS.

Kevin Youkilis
Youkilis has not been an everyday player for the Red Sox this year, playing in only 41 of the team's 71 games to this point.  His line of .225/.311/.359 with a .670 OPS could be due to him not playing everyday, therefore not getting consistent at bats to work his troubles out.  It seems certain that Youkilis will be traded at this point, so a change of scenary could help a lot, along with playing everyday. 
If the Pirates were to land him, he would, or at least should, be made the everyday first baseman.  The move to possibly the easiest division in baseball after spending nine years in the hardest division would also help Youkilis to improve his numbers.  Let's assume that all these factors that could help him improve, do in fact make him improve.  It is very doubtful that he improves as much as Lee did, but Youkilis is only a year removed from a season where he had an .833 OPS.  Let's assume that Youkilis' average, OBP, and slugging percentage improve by half of what Lee's did.

His hypothetical impovements: +46 points in average, +48 points in OBP, +90 points in slugging percentage.  These improvements would make his hitting line with the Pirates be .271/.359/.449.  That's good for an .808 OPS.

If the Pirates acquired Youkilis from the Red Sox and his numbers improved by half of what Derrek Lee's did in 2011 for the Pirates in the same change of divisions, Youkilis would be the Pirates' second best hitter, and easily an above average major league hitter. 
Also, Youkilis' career line against the NL is .296/.375/.521 with an .896 OPS, 21 HRs, and 79 RBI in 443 at bats.  His OPS against teams in the NL Central are as follows:
Cubs: 1.358 OPS
Reds: 1.200 OPS
Astros: .948 OPS
Brewers: 1.241 OPS
Cardinals: 1.126 OPS

Clearly, Youkilis has absolutely destroyed the NL Central (except the Pirates, .403 OPS.)  A move to this division seems like it could really help Youkilis recover from his season long slump. 

At Pirates Prospects, they do a series of trade values for potential trade targets and looked at what it would take to get Youkilis (that article can be found here: http://www.piratesprospects.com/2012/06/trade-values-kevin-youkilis.html).  In the article, they find his trade value to be a lower level hitter or a relief pitcher, along with Boston paying about $5 million of Youkilis' salary.  In this case, why not take a chance on Youkilis?  The offense has been absolutely horrible, and Youkilis has had a great career.  Derrek Lee came over in a similar situation last year, and had great success for the team.  If Youkilis improved by what half of Lee did, Youkilis would be the second best hitter on the Pirates.  With his success that Youkilis has had in the past against the NL and especially against the NL Central, Youkilis' numbers for the Pirates could be even better than .271/.359/.449.  For a lower level prospect, that's a great deal that the Pirates should not pass up on.

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45.

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Top Prospects: #1-10

I wrote this post last week, so the stats will not be the same.  Also, Gerrit Cole has already been called up to AA where he has made one start, going five innings with two earned runs, five hits, zero walks, and six strikeouts.  Jameson Taillon is also coming off a great seven inning, one hit performance that lowered his ERA to 4.10.  Kyle McPherson has also returned, with one start at Altoona where he went five innings, giving up four hits, one walk, five strikeouts, and one earned run.  Luis Heredia makes his first start of the year tonight, June 21st.


1.) Gerrit Cole (2)--RHP--21
Last year’s #1 overall pick got off to a slow start to the season, with an ERA over 5.00 in his first few starts.  That start dropped him to #2 in the system, but since those rankings were released in early May, Cole has been untouchable.  He has lowered his ERA to 2.53 (as of June 8th), and his secondary numbers are great as well, with a 1.11 WHIP, 6.9 H/9, and 8.8 K/9.  At this point in the season, it is a little surprising to see Cole still in high-A, especially after his dominant month of May where he posted in ERA well under 2.00.  With the makings of three plus pitches, we should be seeing Cole in AA very soon.

2.) Jameson Taillon (1)--RHP--20
After a very hot start where he once had an ERA of 1.47, Taillon has cooled down recently and looked very hittable.  His ERA has fallen to 3.71 after 12 starts, but he still has strong secondary numbers, with a 1.14 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9, and 8.3 K/9.  With a plus fastball and one of the best curveballs in the business, Taillon should be able to turn his season back around and display more dominance, and the development of his changeup will definitely help him in doing this.  There aren’t as many calls to see him up in AA after he has cooled down recently, so Taillon may be spending the remainder of the 2012 season in high-A.

3.) Mark Appel (NA)--RHP--20
Appel was the Pirates first round draft pick in 2012.  Coming into the draft, all signs pointed to Appel being drafted with either the #1 or #2 overall pick.  Somehow, he kept falling and was available for the Pirates to select him with the #8 pick.  GM Neal Huntington stayed true to his promise that he would take the best player available with the pick of Appel.  A player that people have compared Appel to is Gerrit Cole, with both having a plus fastball, and makings of plus pitches with their sliders and changeups.  Cole has the edge with all three pitches, but Appel still throws them all well.  Along with Taillon and Cole, Appel tends to be more hittable than he should be at times, but the Pirates have shown the ability to develop pitchers, so this shouldn’t be as much of a problem moving forward.

4.) Starling Marte (3)--OF--23
2012 has been a bit of a disappointment for Marte, especially after a great spring with the major league team.  His average seems to be consistently floating around .260 (now at .257), and his strikeout rate is at 24.3%, up from his 18.7% last year.  He seemed to be getting hot last week, but since then he has cooled down again.  But, Marte is still a very good prospect and like Dejan Kovacevic states in this great article about Marte (http://triblive.com/sports/columnists/1899579-74/marte-dejankovacevic-bat-field-indianapolis-joestarkey-starling-happy-hole-huntington), you have to have patience with him.  Marte COULD be an Andrew McCutchen-lite, with an average over .300, around 15 homers, and Gold-Glove caliber play in the outfield.

5.) Luis Heredia (5)--RHP--17
Heredia may have the highest upside of anyone on this list, and we will finally be able to see him pitch again when the State College Spikes season starts in mid-June.  Heredia will be the most exciting player to watch on that team, and one of the most interesting to watch in the system.  He posted a 4.75 ERA last year in the rookie level Gulf Coast League, but that is still respectable for a 16 year old facing a lot of hitters who are at least two years older than him.  At times Heredia was very hard to hit, but he will have to improve his control from last year to be more successful.

6.) Josh Bell (4)--OF--19
Bell was injured early in the season after only 62 at bats.  In those at bats, he had a .274 average with one homerun, and a .691 OPS.  His OPS is really only that low because of a .288 OBP caused by a very low walk rate (2 BB in 66 plate appearances).  As Bell moves forward and comes back from his injury, his plate patience will improve, and that can allow him to improve his average and OPS as well.  Bell is very young, and has the upside to be a .300 hitter with 30 or so homers a year.  That’s definitely a good player to have in the middle of your order.

7.) Alen Hanson (14)--SS--19
Baseball America has called Hanson the “Breakout Prospect of the Year” to this point, and he has deserved that honor by hitting for a .321/.380/.560 line in low-A, with eight homers and a total of 33 extra base hits in 234 at bats.  However, Hanson also has 23 errors this year at short, which leads to a horrific .894 fielding percentage.  But, there is still a lot of time for him to develop into a good defensive shortstop in the future.  A good defensive shortstop who can hit, hit for some power, and steal bases is very hard to find, but Alen Hanson has the potential to be this kind of player.  

8.) Rudy Owens (8)--LHP--24
After struggling throughout 2011 in his first year of AAA, the two time Minor League Pitcher of the Year for the Pirates’ organization is really having a great bounce back year.  Through 11 starts and 72.2 IP, Owens has a 2.35 ERA, along with a fantastic 0.96 WHIP and 1.2 BB/9.  He has also improved his K/9 and H/9 this year, which will always lead to more success.  If the Pirates need another starter because of injury, Owens should be the first one called up from a good AAA rotation.

9.) Kyle McPherson (7)--RHP--24
Coming into spring training, it looked like McPherson could be a candidate to be called up to the majors midseason to take a full time spot in the rotation.  Instead, he got hurt and has yet to pitch an inning this year.  The 2011 Minor League Pitcher of the Year is currently on a throwing program, but his return is unknown.  In 2011, McPherson had a 2.96 ERA between high-A and AA, along with a great 1.02 WHIP.  But, his injury deals with his shoulder, and any shoulder injury that is keeping a pitcher out for more than half the year is definitely a red flag, as shoulder injuries are not easy to come back from as a pitcher.

10.) Tony Sanchez (10)--C--24
The Pirates’ 2009 first round pick got off to a hot start in the organization, but really struggled at the plate in 2011 at AA, and those struggles continued into the beginning of 2012.  Recently, Sanchez was on a hot streak at the plate, getting his overall numbers up to .277/.370/.390, and this helped him to be promoted to AAA Indianapolis.  His power numbers continue to stay down from what they were in 2009 and 2010, with zero homers so far this year.  He is getting more extra base hits though, which is a good sign.  His defense has never been a problem, as he still projects to be an above average major league defender.  His arm can be inaccurate at times, and he will continue to work on that moving forward.  Sanchez could be an above average MLB catcher, but time is running out for his offense to improve.

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Gerrit Cole's AA Debut

Pirates' top prospect Gerrit Cole made his debut for AA Altoona tonight, and Bloggin Buccos was there to see it.  Cole looked as advertised, hitting 92-95 MPH on the outfield radar gun, but apparently that gun is a little slow, and he was said to be hitting 93-98, with one of his fastballs reaching 99 MPH.  Cole has a very good arsenal of pitches that he can use, including that fastball, a 2-seam fastball that usually sits in the low 90's, a great slider that can reach the low 90's, a potential plus changeup, and a good curve as well.
Cole's line for the day ended up at 5 innings pitched, five hits, zero walks, six strikeouts and two earned runs.  He started the game with three perfect innings, but allowed five hits over the next two innings, which lead to the two earned runs.  There was a long delay between the fourth and fifth innings because of a power outage in one of the stadium lights, and this may have messed with Cole's focus a little.  He also got ahead of a batter 0-2, but then threw three straight balls and allowed an RBI hit with the next pitch.  Either way, Cole showed everyone why he is the top prospect in the system.
I was very impressed with how Cole was able to use all his pitches throughout his start, and it seemed like he got a strikeout with each pitch (that probably can't be confirmed).  He showed a great feel for his changeup, which was in the mid to upper-80's, and that helped to keep hitters guessing at the plate.  I haven't really heard much about Cole's curveball coming into the game, but it looked very good as well, and I will try to put a video of one of his strikeouts using that curve on twitter if I can.
Cole's control was never a problem in the outing, as shown by him not allowing any walks.  Out of the 20 batters that he faced in the game, he threw 15 first pitch strikes.  As I said before, he was using all of his five pitches to get strikes and strikeouts.
I definitely left the game very impressed by Cole, and he proved to be the system's number one prospect.  A guy who has five pitches that are above average or plus pitches can easily be a major league ace if he can control and command those pitches, and Cole showed the ability to do that in his AA debut.
Video of Cole and other game highlights can be found on the Altoona Curve's Facebook page.  Here you will be able to see some of the great movement and placement he has on his pitches.
The Curve ended up winning the game 9-4, with home runs coming from Quincy Latimore and Robbie Grossman.

On a side note, I would also like to say that Altoona's field was very nice, and it was definitely a great experience to be there.  The best seats in the stadium (infield box seats) were only $10, so it would be a great idea to go out and see the Curve

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45

Sunday, June 17, 2012

Top 30 Prospects: #11-20

11.) Jeff Locke (9)--LHP--24
Locke is another member of a good AAA rotation in Indianapolis, and has so far posted a 3.27 ERA in 66.0 IP.  A lot of his success this year can be attributed to his much improved control, with a 1.9 BB/9, down from 3.2 from last year.  His K/9 rate is at 8.2, which is above average and also at his career rate in the minors.  He debuted in Pittsburgh last year with a 6.48 ERA in four starts, and had a brief stint with the team this year, but he didn’t make an appearance.  With good control and good strikeout numbers, Locke could be a good major league starter, possibly even a #3 starter.

12.) Robbie Grossman (15)--OF--22
Grossman had a breakout year in 2011 in his second year in high-A, but has really struggled in the difficult jump to AA.  In 203 at bats, he has a .217/.315/.345 line, with a .659 OPS.  His power is down a little as well, with a HR every 67.7 at bats this year, opposed to a HR every 37.7 last year.  The speedy outfielder still has time to turn things around this year, but he was recently benched for “in house reasons”, which isn’t really a good sign.  Grossman has great plate patience, and is still drawing walks at a very good rate.

13.) Nick Kingham (11)--RHP--20
After a great year in State College in 2011 where he posted a 2.15 ERA, Kingham has struggled a little in low-A this year.  Through 12 starts and 49.0 IP, Kingham has a 5.51 average and 1.43 WHIP.  He has been very hittable this year, with a 10.1 H/9.  He’s also walking more batters this year than in the past, with a 2.8 BB/9 this year compared to a 1.9 BB/9 last year.  He is striking a lot more batters out though, with a 8.6 K/9 this year after having a career rate of 6.0 coming into the season.  With a chance to have three above average pitches in the future, Kingham could be a very good starter in the majors one day.

14.) Alex Dickerson (NA)--1B--22
Dickerson is the best first base prospect the Pirates have in their system, and could be an offensive threat down the road.  After years of not having a long term first baseman in the organization, this is a welcoming sight.  Dickerson was drafted in the third round of the 2011 draft, and after doing a great job in short season State College last year, was promoted to high-A to begin 2012.  He got off to a slow start, but currently sits at a .288/.355/.414 line, with four homeruns and a .769 OPS.  You would like to see more home runs and a better slugging percentage from a power hitter, but he has displayed his ability to hit the long ball, and should be able to hit for more power in the future.

15.) Gregory Polanco (NA)--OF--20
Polanco is having a breakout year in low-A West Virginia after struggling in his first few years in the organization.  It was a bit of a surprise to see him start the year in low-A after a bad year in the rookie level Gulf Coast League, but he has surpassed expectations with a .302/.360/.482 line, with nine homers and a .841 OPS in 222 at bats.  Coming into the year he was seen as a “potential five-tool talent”, and has lived up to that with his average and power, along with 16 SB’s in 20 attempts, while serving as the primary center fielder for the West Virginia Power.  Starling Marte (#4 on this list) had his breakout year for West Virginia as a 20 year old as well, and so far Gregory Polanco is putting up better offensive numbers than Marte did that year.  He doesn’t have the arm or fielding ability of Marte and isn’t quite as fast, but is a very efficient base runner who can hit for average and power.

16.) Justin Wilson (NA)--LHP--24
Wilson may have as good of stuff as any pitcher in the system, but his lack of control over those pitches can get him into trouble.  Over his career in the minors, Wilson has a 4.6 BB/9, including a 4.8 rate this year.  His control problems led to him being put into the bullpen near the end of 2011, where he displayed an upper 90’s fastball (he was working between 88-94 MHP as a starter).  With the control problems he has shown in the rotation, it would make sense for him to move to the bullpen if and when he moves up to Pittsburgh.  A lefty reliever with an upper 90’s fastball and great movement on his pitches is very hard to find, and very valuable.

17.) Colton Cain (12)--LHP--21
Cain has spent a lot of this season on the DL, and has only thrown 34.2 innings so far.  In those innings, he has struggled a bit, with a 5.45 ERA.  A big reason for his struggles is that he has given up six home runs to this point, leading to a 1.6 HR/9 rate.  As soon as that number goes down, which it should, his ERA will go down as well.  Cain dropped five spots in my rankings since the last list in May, but that’s mainly due to him being injured.  He had a 3.13 ERA in 19 starts last year, and has the potential to be a good #3 starter in the majors.

18.) Matt Curry (13)--1B--23
Curry spent most of 2011 in AA, so he is repeating the level this year.  In his second time around, he has a .284/.342/.438 line, with only two homers and a .779 OPS.  The Pirates do not have a proven first base prospect in their system, so Curry is as close as it gets.  If he reaches his potential, Curry could be an average to above average big league first baseman who could hit around .280 and somewhere between 15-25 home runs.  His defense isn’t great at first, but shouldn’t be a problem down the road.  

19.) Mel Rojas Jr. (NA)--OF--22
Rojas was drafted as a potential five tool player in the third round of the 2010 draft, but was said to be very raw.  He’s been a little inconsistent this year, but has an OPS of .702, which is up from his .646 number from last year at a lower level.  He has displayed his speed and fielding ability in the lower levels, and his bat seems to be picking up this year.  He has the potential to hit for power, but has only seven home runs in 907 career at bats in the minors.  If his bat can improve, he could be a very intriguing prospect.

20.) Bryan Morris (NA)--RHP--25
Morris is now a full time reliever, coming out of the bullpen for the AAA Indianapolis Indians.  He has been a great reliever in the upper levels of the minors, with a 2.05 ERA out of the bullpen in 2011 at AA Altoona, and a 2.65 ERA this year.  He has great secondary numbers this year to go along with that, including a 8.9 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, and 1.02 WHIP.  With a mid 90’s fastball, great curveball, and a new cutter that he uses as a strikeout pitch, Morris looks like a guy that could be a future closer in the majors.  



Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Luis Heredia to Start at State College

Pitching prospect Luis Heredia, who was signed by the Pirates in 2010 for $2.6 M, will begin the year in short season State College.  In his first season in the organization, Heredia had a 4.75 ERA, along with a 6.8 K/9, 5.6 BB/9, and 1.55 WHIP.  At times, he was very hard to hit but his control lead to some problems.  At 16 years old, though, that shouldn't be hard to fix given the amount of time they have with him.
Short Season ball is usually dominated by college hitters, so it will be very challenging for the 17 year old Heredia to compete in this league.  If he can improve his control and continue his pitch arsenal, where he has the potential to have four plus pitches, he could have a lot of success at this level.  If Heredia does have success at this level, expect to see this prospect with the highest upside in the system move up into many top 100 prospect lists.

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.

How To Improve Pirates' Offense: Part I

     Right now the Pittsburgh Pirates sit in a tie for first place in the NL Central with the Reds at 32-27.  This is a borderline miracle.  But is it really?  I say I completely disagree with those who say this.  If anything, this Pirates team is underachieving.  People point to the Pirates pitching staff as some sort of huge surprise, but watching this Pirates pitching staff since the beginning of last year, I don't see how this pitching could come as a surprise.  Yes, it is true that the Pirates have been lucky so far this year, considering their pythagorean win-loss record is 27-32.  However, this team has had an offense that has underachieved significantly.
     Let's look at the guy who represents the Pirates' hitting struggles the most this year, Clint Barmes.  Clint Barmes has an OPS of .518 this year.  His career average is an OPS of  .693.  Barmes is a veteran and past his prime, so some people might point to that as the issue.  For that reason, let's look at Jose Tabata.  Tabata has an OPS of .608 this year, compared to his career OPS of .705.  Tabata was once a promising prospect in the Yankees system, where he was called "mini manny," in reference to him being compared to Manny Ramirez.  He was traded to the Pirates and performed quite well in the Pirates' minor leagues.  He even hit pretty well as a rookie for the Pirates, with an OPS of .746.  He has progressively gotten worse, with an OPS of .711 last year, and I already discussed his horrendous year this year.
     This leads me to my main point.  Players get worse under the Pirates coaching staff.  This is a serious issue, if you couldn't figure that out.  The Pirates hitting approach is terrible and many issues that the players have are evident to even the average fan, but the Pirates either ignore the issues or do something to make the issues even worse.  Clint Hurdle is a bad manager, but a good guy and seems to be making an overall positive impact on this team.  With that being the case, the Pirates Hitting Coach, Greg Ritchie NEEDS to be relieved of his duties.  Everyone not named Andrew McCutchen has gotten worse under his coaching so there is no doubt in my mind that he needs to go.
     This is the first step the Pirates need to take to improve their offense and I will outline the other ways in upcoming posts.
      Hope all is well with everyone and I'm excited to be back and posting for Bloggin Buccos!
      God Bless,
            Brian 

Top 30 Prospects: #21-30

21.) Jose Osuna (NA)--1B--19
Osuna was aggressively promoted to low-A this year, but that wasn’t surprising after a .331 average and .911 OPS in the rookie level Gulf Coast League last year.  So far, he has handled the promotion pretty well with a .276/.333/.421 line in 214 at bats, to go with four home runs and a .754 OPS.  Osuna has good contact abilities and has hit for power in the past, and if he continues to develop, there’s a chance he could be a long term answer for the Pirates at first base.  

22.) Wyatt Mathisen (NA)--C--18
Mathisen was the Pirates’ 2nd round draft pick in the 2012 draft, and was rated the 47th best prospect in the draft.  He played mostly shortstop in high school, but will most likely be a catcher in the Pirates’ organization.  He has the chance to be an above average defender behind the plate, and also has good power and contact abilities.  After signing for the slot amount of about $746 K, he should play for the Gulf Coast League Pirates when their season starts.

23.) Barrett Barnes (NA)--OF--20
Barnes was the supplemental pick for the Pirates in 2012, and has a good combination of power and speed.  He is said to have plus raw power from the right side of the plate, along with good bat speed and good discipline at the plate.  If he signs, he will play for the short season State College Spikes.  He has the chance to stick in center field because of his speed, but there is also a good chance he is moved to left field at some point.

24.) Jarek Cunningham (NA)--2B--22
Cunningham missed some time this season due to injury, and has struggled while healthy.  He is a rare middle infielder with power, hitting 15 home runs in 310 at bats in high-A last season, along with a .514 slugging percentage.  In 2012, his power has not been nearly as good, with a .365 slugging percentage in 115 at bats.  The jump to AA is always a difficult one for hitting prospects, so Cunningham’s struggles could just be him not yet adjusting to the level yet.  He’s had a limited number of at bats this year, and at 22 years old, still has plenty of time to develop into a power threat at second base, with a possible Dan Uggla upside.

25.) Willy Garcia (NA)--OF--19
Garcia is a toolsy outfielder that is still raw in his abilities.  So far in 217 low-A at bats this year, he has a line of .272/.312/.429, with eight home runs and a .741 OPS.  He runs well in the outfield and has a good arm, so he could be a good corner outfielder in the future.  Garcia has the potential to add more power in the future, and with eight homers already this year, his development looks promising.

26.) Brock Holt (NA)--SS--24
Holt is currently playing for AA Altoona right now, but he was probably ready to begin the year in AAA if there weren’t a surplus of middle infielders at that level already.  Holt is hitting well in AA this year, with a .309 average and .778 OPS.  He doesn’t have any power, which will limit his offensive upside in the future, and may also make him a utility man as well.  Holt plays shortstop for Altoona, but with his lack of arm strength and range, it is more likely he will be a second baseman moving forward.

27.) Tim Alderson (NA)--RHP--23
Tim Alderson, the former 2009 #45 prospect in all of baseball, has made it back to a top prospect list.  After his fall from top prospect status, starting in that 2009 season where his velocity started to fall, Alderson has rediscovered his fastball.  In 2010-2011, his fastball dropped to around 85 MPH, which led to demotions and disappointments.  He saw a return of velocity at the beginning of the 2011 season when he was pitching out of the bullpen, but it fell back to the mid 80’s by mid season.  In spring training this year, Alderson was being clocked at 90-93 MPH, and he has held that velocity all season so far.  He was moved to the rotation, where he has had mixed results in five starts, but overall he has had a good season.  With a very deceptive delivery, a great hammer curveball, and good control, all Alderson needs is a low 90’s fastball to be successful.  Alderson’s season has been a great story so far, and it will be interesting to see him progress, and how he can handle AAA when he gets promoted.

28.) Zack Von Rosenberg (NA)--RHP--21
ZVR has now made two starts in the low-A West Virginia rotation, with one very good start and one very bad start.  In his first start, he went four strong innings, giving up no earned runs on two hits.  In his second start, he allowed six earned runs on eight hits in four innings.  After a good deal of struggles in 2011 (5.73 ERA) and spending all of April and May in extended spring training, ZVR is falling on a lot of prospect lists.  He has a very high upside, but doesn’t seem to be making a lot of progress, so he will have to quickly turn things around to regain what made him the #41 prospect in the 2009 draft.

29.) Clay Holmes (NA)--RHP--19
Holmes signed for $1.2 M after being taken in the ninth round of the 2011 draft, where he was rated the 140th prospect by Baseball America.  That amount was a record for a ninth rounder.  Holmes has a fastball that sits between 90-93 MPH, and a slider and change that are going to need some work.  He should begin the year in short season State College, where he will pitch out of the rotation.  This will be a challenge for him because the New York-Penn League is dominated by college hitters.

30.) Harold Ramirez (NA)--OF--17
Ramirez, a Colombian who received $1.05 M as the top Latin American signee for the Pirates in 2011, is said to have plus-plus speed and a good feel for hitting.  The Pirates are apparently very high on Ramirez, as he will be starting the season for the rookie level Gulf Coast League team, where he should serve as the primary center fielder.