Justin Upton trade rumors have been swirling around since June, and the Pirates were one of the teams said to have interest in Upton before the deadline. However, the Diamondback's asking price was too high for any team, and Upton stayed in Arizona for the remainder of the season. Now in January, the Diamondbacks are still actively seeking for a trade partner for the 25 year-old outfielder. Upton has a no trade clause in his contract, with the Mariners, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Cubs as the four teams he can veto a trade. Recently, Upton rejected an agreed upon trade to the Mariners that would have sent top prospects Nick Franklin (SS) and Taijuan Walker (RHP), along with young relievers Charlie Furbush and Stephen Pryor. This is said to be the first trade offer that the Diamondbacks actually accepted. Also, the Texas Rangers, who were a major player for Justin Upton, are said to have "backed off" of a potential Upton deal.
The accepted Mariners offer to the Diamondbacks shows what it would take to land Upton. Nick Franklin is a good shortstop prospect who hit very well at AA this year before a promotion to AAA, where he struggled. He is an average defender at short, but may be better suited for second base long term. Taijuan Walker was one of the best pitching prospects in the game coming into 2012, but struggled with a 4.69 ERA in his first season at AA as a 19 year old. Still, he has a mid to high 90's fastball with a great curve and a developing changup. With this three pitch mix, he is still considered one of the best pitching prospects in the minors. Furbush and Pryor are young relievers who get a lot of strikeouts, with Furbush having a good year in the MLB as a 26 year old, and Pryor getting a taste of the majors as a 22 year-old.
This got me thinking, what would be a similar package of prospects in the Pirates system? Alen Hanson seems to be a similar prospect to Nick Franklin, a shortstop who has shown the ability to hit but has been inconsistent on defense. Jameson Taillon is a very close comparison to Taijuan Walker, with both having number one starter upside with a mid to high-90's fastballs, great curveballs, and improving changeups. I can think of three relievers that could compare to Furbush and Pryor, with those pitchers being Bryan Morris, Victor Black, and Duke Welker.
With Alen Hanson and Jameson Taillon being very similar to Franklin and Walker, the Pirates may be able to pull off a trade for Justin Upton with a package of Hanson, Taillon, and two of that relievers group, probably Morris and Black. If this trade were to be accepted, should the Pirates do it?
Justin Upton is one of the top young players in the game with great potential that he put on display in the 2011 season, where he finished fourth in the MVP voting as a 23 year old. He would be a great addition to any team in the majors, with three more years of team control. The Diamondbacks have a strained relationship with Upton and an excess of outfielders, so a deal seems likely to occur. The only problem here from a player standpoint with the Pirates is that the Pirates also have an excess of outfielders, with this proposed trade causing a jam with Marte and Snider. But, bringing in Upton could give the Pirates a potentially dangerous middle of the lineup, with Andrew McCutchen, Upton, Garrett Jones, and an improving Pedro Alvarez. That's four players who could approach the 30 homer mark, and that is a very rare feat for any lineup. If the opportunity for a trade comes, the Pirates have to pounce on it. The offense has not been good for the Pirates, especially over the past two seasons, and Upton can be a major threat at the plate that could turn around the team's offensive woes. With Gerrit Cole most likely making his major league debut and joining what could already be a solid rotation, an addition of Upton to the lineup could make the Pirates playoff contenders in 2013. Without Upton's impact bat, it is doubtful the Pirates make a playoff run in 2013.
The crowded outfield that would ensue from an Upton trade could pose a problem, but should not stop a deal from happening. The Pirates could still go with Marte in left, McCutchen in center, and Upton in right, with Travis Snider as a good bench option and filling in case of injuries or if Marte struggles at the plate. A Marte-McCutchen-Upton outfield could potentially give the Pirates one of the best outfields in all of baseball, especially if Marte lives up to his potential, and McCutchen and Upton put up numbers similar to their 2012 and 2011 seasons, respectively. But, if the Pirates really don't like the idea of having a crowded outfield (remember this would also affect Jerry Sands, Jose Tabata, and Alex Presley), a third team could be added to a potential deal. Two teams that I can see as fits would be the Mariners and the Rangers, as they were both looking to acquire Upton, and therefore could be looking for outfield help.
Pirates-Diamondbacks-Mariners Trade:
PIT GETS; Justin Upton
ARI GETS: Jameson Taillon, Nick Franklin, Victor Black
SEA GETS: Starling Marte, Jordy Mercer
In this trade the Pirates would be giving up Taillon, Black, Marte, and Mercer. The real trade-off here compared to a two team deal with the Pirates and Mariners is trading Marte instead of Hanson. Considering they would be getting a three years of a proven MLB player in Upton, the Pirates may be willing to lose Marte and keep Alen Hanson in the system. However, the Mariners may not be willing to part with Franklin for just Starling Marte and Jordy Mercer, so more may have to be added to this deal. If that is the case, the Pirates would be better served to do a two team deal.
Pirates-Diamondbacks-Rangers Trade:
PIT GETS: Justin Upton, Jorge Alfaro, Ronald Guzman
ARI GETS: Jameson Taillon, Mike Olt, Victor Black
TEX GETS: Starling Marte, Garrett Jones, Justin Wilson
Here the Pirates would be giving up more, with Taillon, Black, Marte, Jones, and Wilson leaving. But, they would also be receiving a little more with Texas prospects Jorge Alfaro and Ronald Guzman coming in the deal. Alfaro (19) and Guzman (18) are both very young players that are natural hitters. Alfaro is an athletic catcher who has a good arm behind the plate, with the chance to be a good average hitter with good power. Guzman, who received a high bonus after signing out of the Dominican Republic as a 16 year old, is a tall outfielder who can flat out hit, with the potential for plus power down the road as a left fielder or first baseman. After acquiring Didi Gregorius from the Reds in the Trevor Bauer deal, the Diamondbacks may look for a future third baseman, a spot that the Rangers' Mike Olt could definitely fill. Giving up Olt would cause a possible infield need for the Rangers at first base, a spot that would be filled by Garrett Jones in this deal. The question in this trade is whether the Rangers would be willing to give up Olt and the upside of both Alfaro and Guzman for Marte, Jones, and Wilson, but remember Marte is still under team control for the same amount of time that Olt is. If I were the Pirates, I would definitely make this deal, it's really just a question of if the Rangers would, as there is a good chance the Diamondbacks would accept this as well.
Justin Upton is has game-changing talent, and could be an MVP candidate for years to come. At 25 years old, opportunities to acquire this young talent are extremely rare, and when they present themselves, teams like the Pirates should take advantage. The Pirates would have to give up a lot in any deal, but it would be worth it to have Upton for at least the next three years. An effect of any Upton trade for the Pirates would be that there would not sign starting pitcher Francisco Liriano, as they would use his potential salary to cover Upton's $9.75 million salary in 2013. Upton is an elite talent that would benefit any team, and putting his bat in the 2013 Pirates lineup would give them a legitimate chance at the playoffs this year, and in the future.
Here are the three trade ideas from the Pirates' standpoint:
Pirates-Diamondbacks Trade:
PIRATES GET; Justin Upton
PIRATES GIVE: Jameson Taillon, Alen Hanson, Bryan Morris, Victor Black
Pirates-Diamondbacks-Mariners Trade:
PIRATES GET: Justin Upton
PIRATES GIVE: Jameson Taillon, Starling Marte, Victor Black, Jordy Mercer
Pirates-Diamondbacks-Rangers Trade:
PIRATES GET: Justin Upton, Jorge Alfaro, Ronald Guzman
PIRATES GIVE: Jameson Taillon, Starling Marte, Garrett Jones, Victor Black, Justin Wilson
The two team deal with the Pirates and Diamondbacks would be the most likely deal here, and the PIT-ARI-TEX deal would probably be the best for the Pirates. Which trade would you do?
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below. I would love to hear any other trade ideas you may have, or if you want to make changes/improvements to my ideas.
Potential 2013 Mid-Season Lineup and Rotation With Upton
LINEUP (based on a PIT-ARI deal)
1.) Marte-LF
2.) Walker-2B
3.) McCutchen-CF
4.) Upton-RF
5.) Alvarez-3B
6.) Jones-1B
7.) Martin-C
8.) Barmes-SS
ROTATION
Burnett
McDonald
Rodriguez
Cole
McPherson/Locke
I like the looks of that lineup.
