2012 Roster Possibilities: Shortstop

    A lot of people have different opinions on what the Pirates’ shortstop situation.  There was controversy before the season, during the season, and now.  The Pirates went into the off-season following the 2010 season looking for a shortstop upgrade after a very inconsistent campaign by Ronny Cedeno.  The team drafted shortstop Josh Rodriguez as the first pick in the Rule 5 draft, but he only had 12 at bats before he was gone.  Fans were disappointed when the team missed opportunities to acquire players like J.J. Hardy and Jason Bartlett, and instead stuck with Cedeno.  Bartlett’s season did not meet expectations, but Hardy played far above expectations.  He hit 30 HR’s, something that would have been great for the Pirates this year.  However, it is far from guaranteed that he would have had the same success with the Pirates.  Cedeno, on the other hand, saw a slight drop off in offensive production, but he played above average defense all year, and stayed consistent for the most part.  He is probably a little worse than a league average shortstop, but that is acceptable for a 90 loss team.  
    When Cedeno went down with an injury in early July, rookie Chase D’arnaud took over as the everyday shortstop.  He played terribly, but if someone would’ve said that D’arnaud would be in the majors this year after his performance in AA during the 2010 season, they would have been laughed at.  But because of his play for the Pirates this year, he should start 2012 in AAA.  He wasn’t major league ready in 2011, so he will have to work on many aspects of his game.  In the minors, he was a decent fielder, but that changed when he reached the majors.  He saw his career minor league fielding percentage at short of .957 drop to .936 in the majors.  He also hit very poorly, with a .217 average and .528 OPS.  Clearly, he wasn’t ready to be in a Pirates uniform.  Brandon Wood and Pedro Ciriaco both contributed at shortstop, but Wood will most likely be non-tendered and Ciriaco is at best a utility player.
    In the current free agent market, there are multiple options that the Pirates could look at.  I found ten names that the front office may consider, and I have put that into five different groups, including players that : have slightly better production than Cedeno, have contract options but are slight upgrades, are big offensive upgrades, aren’t going to happen, and the Jack Wilson group.

Slightly Better Production Than Cedeno
This group consists of Clint Barmes, Edgar Renteria, and Jamey Carrol.  All three of these players have the ability to be an offensive upgrade to Cedeno, but they haven’t had great numbers.  Each player had an OPS higher than Cedeno, with Barmes and Carrol hovering around .700 in 2011, while Renteria had similar production to Cedeno.  The Pirates will only consider players that are they consider definite upgrades to Cedeno and that are affordable, so that pretty much puts Renteria out of the picture.  Barmes would give the Pirates a power upgrade with similar defense, and Carrol would give the team a guy that knows how to get on base.  Barmes is a decent option and probably the most likely in this group because the Dodgers may want to keep Carrol, at least as a bench option.
Players With Contract Options
This group consists of Yuniesky Betancourt and Rafael Furcal.  Betancourt has a $6 M option, and Furcal has a $12 M option, both being club options.  It is hard to imagine either the Brewers or the Cardinals exercising these options, but I believe the Brewers may try to sign Betancourt at a lower price.  That leaves Furcal, and he would not be a good sign for the Pirates.  His offensive numbers aren’t much better than Cedeno’s, and his defense is much worse.  It does not seem likely that either of these players will end up in a Pirates uniform.
Big Offensive Upgrades
Alex Gonzalez and Marco Scutaro make up this group.  Gonzalez would provide a big power boost at the shortstop position, along with decent defense.  Scutaro had a very good offensive year in 2011, hitting .299 with an .781 OPS, which are both above his career averages.  At 35, it is unlikely he would reproduce these numbers.  That could be leverage for the Pirates, but unfortunately the Red Sox have a $6 M club option on him, and unless they are able to sign Jose Reyes, they will most likely exercise that option.  Gonzalez would be a nice player to have, but the market for above average shortstops is usually competitive.
Not Happening
This group is Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins.  Reyes had an amazing year, and Rollins has already expressed interest in resigning with the Phillies, so don’t get your hopes up.  Reyes will either resign with the Mets or go to a big market team, so the Pirates really have no chance at either of these players.
Jack Wilson Group
This group is made up of only Jack Wilson, and I only included it because I couldn’t resist.  I don’t believe there is any chance we will see Wilson in a Pirates uniform again, but it’s still a nice thought.  He is terrible offensively and similar to Cedeno defensively, and the Pirates have too many internal options to consider Wilson for a bench spot.  Sorry, but Jack Wilson’s days with the Pirates will continue to be no more.

There could be many teams looking for a shortstop, so that may make any free agent signing difficult.  The most likely options for the Pirates to consider are Barmes, Carrol, Gonzalez, and Scutaro.  I believe the best option out of this group would be Alex Gonzalez because he could provide a big power boost, along with good defense at short.  He would definitely be affordable, so the Pirates should go after him and make a competitive offer.

Even if the Pirates don’t find an external option at short, they still have Cedeno to start.  He is a decent option with good defense, and that would be a good fit for a pitch-to-contact pitching staff.  Pedro Ciriaco is out of options, so there is a good chance he will be on the team next year, probably as a bench player.  They also have Chase D’arnaud, Jordy Mercer, and Brock Holt as options, and all three should start in AAA.  It would be nice to see Mercer up sometime, as he has power and is a good shortstop defensively.  Mercer could be a player similar to Alex Gonzalez, so it would be nice if the Pirates could sign him to mentor Mercer.

There have been many calls for the Pirates to replace Cedeno at shortstop, and they will have another chance this offseason.  There are multiple free agents, but Alex Gonzalez would be the best option.  If the Pirates don’t exercise Cedeno’s $3 M option, they will definitely make a competitive offer to a free agent, most likely as one to two year deal.  They have internal options, but no one seems ready to take over as a full time starter, so a player like Gonzalez would be a big help for the team.

2012 Roster Possibilities: Third Base

         I’m going to start off by saying that the only option I think the Pirates should consider is Pedro Alvarez.  I realize a lot of people do not feel the same way, but Pedro is still a key player in the Pirates’ hopes to be contender.  Also, the Pirates don’t really have any other players that are capable of starting at this point.  There can be an argument made for Josh Harrison, but the fact is that a .272 average doesn’t mean anything when your on-base percentage is .281.  Harrison is a decent hitter, but he has very little power and no patience at the plate.  He doesn’t strike out very often, but he only walked three times in 204 plate appearances in the majors this year.  Josh Harrison is a good player to have on the bench, but he is not ready to start in the majors.  Some other internal options the Pirates have that have played third are Steve Pearce, Brandon Wood, Chase D’arnaud, and Matt Hague.  Pearce and Wood are likely to be non-tendered, so that leaves D’arnaud and Hague.  At the major league level, D’arnaud really struggled, posting a .217/.242/.287 line with a .528 OPS, and was a terrible fielder.  He also mainly plays shortstop, so he is definitely not an option to start at third on opening day.  Matt Hague has played almost exclusively at first for the past three years in the minors, but he was drafted out of college as a third baseman.  He’s a good hitter, but as I said in the segment about first baseman, his ultimate upside as a hitter is similar to that of Lyle Overbay in his prime.  The Pirates would love to have that next year, but it is very unlikely that Hague will realize his potential as a rookie.  However, for him to even be in consideration for a roster spot next year, Hague will have to work on his versatility.  A one position bench player is just wasting a roster spot, so Hague will have to work on his ability to play third.  
    Looking at the potential free agent market for third baseman, the only options that would be reasonable are Edwin Encarnacion and Aramis Ramirez.  The Blue Jays have a $3.5 M option on Encarnacion, which I would imagine they’d exercise.  Ramirez put up a .871 OPS this year for the Cubs, who have a $16 M option on him.  However, he can void this deal, and some reports have said that he doesn’t want to return to Chicago.  It may be a good idea for the Pirates to publicly pursue Ramirez like they did with Jorge De La Rosa and Adrian Beltre last off-season, even if they don’t have any real intentions of signing him.  This would give the fan base the feeling that the Pirates are willing to spend (which they are), and it would only help that he was a former fan favorite in Pittsburgh.  But, it is very unlikely that Ramirez would welcome a return to Pittsburgh, so don’t get your hopes up.
    So, back to Pedro Alvarez.  Alvarez had a terrible year at the plate, hitting under .200 with only four homers in 235 at bats.  Since I was just talking about Aramis Ramirez, I would like to mention that in his second season with over 200 at bats in 2000, he struggled as well, with a .256 average and only six home runs in 254 at bats.  In the year that followed, he hit for a .300 average and 34 home runs.  Alvarez did struggle more than Ramirez did, but they had similar seasons.  I’m not saying that Alvarez is going to have the same success in 2012 that Ramirez had in 2001, I’m just saying that there is a good chance he can break out of this and have a good year, so don’t lose faith in him.  
    Pedro Alvarez is definitely the best option the Pirates have at third base heading into 2012 and the future, and it would be a bad decision not to give him the chance to start everyday next season.

2012 Roster Possibilities: Second Base

    Alright, there is only one possibility at second for the 2012 Pirates, and that is obviously Neil Walker.  The Pittsburgh Kid had another pretty good season for the Buccos, hitting .273 with a .742 OPS, and he led all NL second basemen in RBI with 83.  He also became a much better  defensive second baseman.  Some people may have seen his production at the plate a little disappointing compared to what he did last year, but you have to remember he never had a great season in the upper levels of the minors, so don’t expect too much from him.  He could very well be a .300 hitter with 20 HR’s a year someday, but that is very unlikely to happen.  His ceiling in the majors is probably about a .285 hitter with around 15-20 HR’s while playing above average defense at second and being an energy player for his team.  The Pirates were rumored to be in extension talks with Walker after they extended Tabata, but it doesn’t seem like too much progress has been made since then.  Since Walker is from Pittsburgh, he should definitely be willing to sign an extension, and it is probable that the deal will be completed this off-season.

2012 Roster Possibilities: First Base

Written By: Michael Mawhinney

 After the 2010 season, the Pirates went out and signed Lyle Overbay for $5 million, which seemed expensive even then.  This was coming after a season where he hit 20 home runs, which was only the second time in his career where he reached the 20-homer mark.  He was said to be a great defender and clubhouse leader, so it seemed like a somewhat reasonable signing if he could hit around .260 with 20 homers.  However, he did none of that.  Instead, he hit .227 with eight home runs in 352 AB’s, and his fielding was decent, but not as advertised.  

While Overbay was struggling in the majors, the AAA team’s first baseman Matt Hague was hitting well over .300, and fans in Pittsburgh wanted to see him called up and Overbay benched.  This would have been a smart decision, but Hague’s long term potential seems to be that of a hitter similar to Lyle Overbay in his prime, but a worse fielder.  Calling Hague up would have helped the club because there was no way that he could have played worse than Overbay, and it would have helped the coaches see how he can handle major league pitching.  In the end, he was never called up, and he only has an outside chance of making the club out of Spring Training next season.  

Lyle Overbay was eventually designated for assignment the day after the Pirates acquired Derrek Lee from the Orioles.  Lee immediately became the everyday first baseman, and made an instant impact when he hit two home runs in his Pirate debut.  Unfortunately, he was hit by a pitch in the wrist and went on the DL for 21 days, but when he returned, he provided a major boost to the team.  For the Pirates, Lee hit for a .337/.398/.584 line with seven home runs, and did a great job in the field.  

Right now, it is unknown who will be the starting first baseman for the Pirates in 2012.  Lee is a free agent, Hague isn’t a great option as a starter, Garrett Jones can’t hit lefties, and Steve Pearce will probably be non-tendered.  GM Neal Huntington has expressed interest in resigning Derrek Lee, but that is going to require Lee to actually want to come back.  There has been talk of retirement with him, but the way he finished the season should give him the desire to play again.  If the Pirates can’t resign Lee, then they will most likely turn to the free agent market, although there aren’t many good options outside of Pujols and Fielder, and that just isn’t going to happen for the Buccos.  Also, Huntington will try to avoid another Lyle Overbay situation, so any player that is similar to him should not be considered.  Some players that they may consider are Jorge Cantu, Michael Cuddyer, Casey Kotchman, and Carlos Pena.  Cantu has the chance of being Overbay 2.0, so the Pirates won’t chase him, and Kotchman doesn’t have enough power for a team the desperately needs that aspect of the game.  That leaves Cuddyer and Pena, but their asking prices may be too high for the Pirates.  But, with the front office claiming they can raise payroll, the team may be willing to meet their demands.  Still, it is more likely that the Pirates persuade Derrek Lee to return for another year.

Another way the Pirates can acquire a new first baseman is through trades.  The Pirates have built up their minor league system to a point where there are prospects who are expendable in trades, so this route should be explored.  One player the Pirates could go after is Yonder Alonso of the Reds, who has played mainly 1B in the minors, and with Joey Votto at first, he could be included in a deal.  He would cost a lot for the Pirates, as he will only be 25 next season and was the #73 prospect in Baseball coming into this year.  ESPN analyst Jim Bowden suggested the Pirates should trade prospect Starling Marte for him, but that would not be a good deal for the Bucs.

The first base picture isn’t clear heading into next season, and the team’s best option seems to be resigning Derrek Lee.  Garrett Jones is arbitration eligible, but he is a good backup option with power, and the team could also use Matt Hague if needed.  The Pirates don’t seem to have a first base prospect that will arrive in Pittsburgh this season, so they may be in a similar predicament during the 2012 off-season as they are now.

2012 Roster Possibilities: Catchers

Written By: Michael Mawhinney

Edited By: Brian Hannon   
Over twelve segments, we will talk about each position, including position players, the starting rotation, the bullpen, and bench options, and analyzing roster options to see what our lineup could look like in 2012.  To do this, we will look at 2011 and past performance, arbitration eligible players, players with options, minor league players ready to make the jump to the majors, and potential free agents.  The Pirates took a big step forward in 2011, winning 15 more games than they did in the previous year.  If the team makes the right moves, we could possibly even see a contending team heading into 2012.  It’s not likely, but this year’s team showed it can happen.  Here’s a look at the options for Catchers:

 The Pirates used eight catchers in 2011, which is obviously a lot.  It wasn’t because the starters were under-performing, it was that they were getting injured.  Ryan Doumit had another extended stay on the disabled list, and Chris Snyder only got 96 AB’s before his season was ended because of a back injury, which required surgery.  These injuries prompted the call-ups of minor league catchers Dusty Brown, Wyatt Toregas, Eric Fryer, and Michael McKenry,  none of whom played well.  

There was a time when McKenry was starting and Fryer was the back up and the team was playing very well.  At this time, people felt comfortable with this combo heading into 2012, but both of these players are most likely back ups.  Some fans love McKenry for the energy he brings, especially after his dramatic 3-run home run that ended up winning the game back in June, and everyone seems to believe he is a great defender.  He is a decent defender, but he’s nothing special, especially because he has lots of trouble throwing out runners.  Also, he has not hit at the major league level, with an OPS of .598 this season and an average at .222. His WAR (Wins Above Replacement), which is a great stat to judge the overall performance of a player was -0.1, so he provided the production of a replacement level player. Those are not the numbers of a starter, and it would be a bad decision to have him as the starter in 2012.  As for the other options going into next season, Snyder and Doumit both have options for next year, but they are very expensive, at $6.75 M and $7.25 M, respectively.  Those prices are going to be too high for the Pirates, so it is extremely unlikely that they exercise either.  That being said, the Pirates can still try to sign them at a lower price, and the club has expressed interest in resigning Snyder.  Ryan Doumit, however, has said the chances of him returning to the Pirates are “slim”, so we have probably seen him for the last time in a Pittsburgh uniform.  The only other internal option that the Pirates have is Jason Jaramillo, who hasn’t hit well in the past, although he has been a tolerable replacement for the most part, but at 28 years old, it is unlikely he ever will be a solid starting catcher.  

The free agent market for catchers this off-season isn’t very deep, and there are no real upgrades over Snyder or Doumit.  The Pirates could explore the trade market for catchers, but, as in the past, teams will most likely ask for a lot in return for a good catcher.  With that being said, the best bet the Pirates have is to use the $750 K buyout on Snyder’s option, and resign him for a lower price.  The Pirates have a few guys that would be decent back-ups in McKenry, Jaramillo, and Fryer, so there is no point in attempting to sign anyone else through free agency.