Over 11 segments so far, Bloggin Buccos has looked at the possibilities that the Pirates have at each position heading into the 2012 season. Now that we have finished each position, it is time to see what the 25-man roster could be on opening day for 2012, position by position.
Catcher:
Starter- Rod Barajas: The Pirates signed Rod Barajas early in the offseason for one year at $4 Million, with a $3.5 Million team option for 2013. Barajas will provide some power in an order that desperately needs it, but will post a low average. He’s above average defensively, but will probably start only 110 games or so in 2012.
Backup- Michael McKenry: McKenry started 54 games at catcher for the Pirates in 2011, but has limited offensive ability. He has proved to be strong defensively, and will probably get a good number of starts in 2012 to give Barajas days to rest.
First Base:
Starter- Garrett Jones: The Pirates are committed to giving Jones a chance to prove himself as an everyday starter (quickly taking his name off the table when the Yankees asked for him in a possible A.J. Burnett deal), after the team was unable to land a free agent first baseman this offseason. Jones has some power, but has had a good deal of struggles against left handed pitching.
Backups- Casey McGehee, Jake Fox: McGehee was acquired for reliever Jose Veras and will compete for a possible platoon with Jones. He hit .285 with 23 HR’s and 104 RBI in 2010, but struggled at the plate in 2011.
Second Base:
Starter- Neil Walker: Walker saw a slight decrease in offensive production in his first full season in 2011 with a .742 OPS compared to an .811 OPS in 2010, but still drove in 83 RBI and greatly improved his defense. Expect good defense from him again and an OPS somewhere in the middle of his 2010 and 2011 numbers.
Backup- Yamaico Navarro: Navarro hasn’t played much second in his career, but has a good chance of being the backup infielder, beating out Josh Harrison, who may be given more time in AAA to develop his skills.
Third Base:
Starter- Pedro Alvarez: The Pirates are relying on a strong bounce back year from Pedro in 2012 if they want to be successful. After a decent rookie campaign and great finish in 2010, he struggled immensely at the plate in 2011 with a .191 average and only four home runs in 74 games. He still has the potential to be a game changer in the middle of the order, but will have to prove himself in 2012.
Backups- Casey McGehee, Yamaico Navarro, Jake Fox: The Pirates have three bench players, plus McKenry if absolutely needed, that can play third, so if Alvarez struggles they will not need to look far to find a backup, which would most likely be McGehee.
Shortstop:
Starter- Clint Barmes: Barmes was signed for two years and $10.5 Million, which is a high price, but was needed to sign him. He is very strong defensively and will be an offensive upgrade from Ronny Cedeno, with a similar average but 10-15 home run power to go with that.
Backup- Yamaico Navarro: Navarro has a good chance of winning a bench spot over Harrison because he has the ability to play shortstop, while that position is completely new to Harrison, who started getting work there this fall in the instructional league.
Left Field:
Starter- Alex Presley: Presley had a breakout year in 2010 between AA and AAA, and continued his success in 2011. He had a .298 average and .804 OPS for the Pirates last year in his first prolonged stay in the majors. 2012 will be a huge year in deciding if Alex Presley is a legit player, or if his performances have been a fluke.
Backup- Nate McClouth: McClouth returned to the Buccos in 2012 as a free agent and will look to turn around his career in the park where he was an All-Star.
Center Field:
Starter- Andrew McCutchen: McCutchen is the best player on the team, and will look for a big season to cement himself as one of the top centerfielders in the game. His power numbers were up in 2011, but his average dropped to .259 after batting .216 in the second half of the season. He will have to cut down on strikeouts to improve in 2012 and the future, but looks to be the budding superstar that the Pirates need.
Backup- Nate McClouth: McClouth won the Gold Glove award in 2008 as the centerfielder for the Pirates, but won’t get much of a chance to play center this year with McCutchen as the starter.
Right Field:
Starter- Jose Tabata: Tabata didn’t enjoy the same production he had in 2010, but injuries might have caused these struggles. He signed a team friendly contract extension towards the end of the regular season, showing that he wants to remain in Pittsburgh. Tabata is moving to right field after only playing this position 15 prior to 2012. It will be interesting to see Tabata’s offensive production if he can play the whole season.
Backups- Nate McClouth, Jake Fox: If Presley or Tabata don’t produce early in 2012, McClouth will be ready to take over as starter in left and right field.
Bench: Michael McKenry, Casey McGehee, Yamaico Navarro, Nate McClouth, Jake Fox
Starting Rotation:
1.) Jeff Karstens: Karstens is coming off a year where he was among the league leaders in ERA for a large portion of the season, finishing with a 3.38 ERA. He never had this success before in the majors, so it will be interesting to see if he can come anywhere near his 2011 numbers.
2.) Erik Bedard: The Pirates signed Bedard for one year at $4.5 Million, and this could very well be a steal if Bedard somehow stays healthy. Bedard is a very good pitcher when healthy, but he hasn’t started more than 24 games since 2007.
3.) Charlie Morton: Morton had a good bounce back year in 2011, finishing with a 3.83 ERA only a year after he posted a 7.57 ERA, and this may be credited to a new sinker grip that he learned. Morton had surgery early in the offseason to repair a torn labrum in his hip, and may not be ready for opening day. The Pirates will be cautious with his return.
4.) James McDonald: McDonald got off to a slow start in 2011 after missing time in spring training because of an oblique injury. After April, J-Mac had a strong season, but he must work deeper into games and become more effective if he wants to be successful moving forward.
5.) Kevin Correia: Correia was an All-Star for the Pirates in 2011, but only made it because of the number of wins he had. Correia started the season strong, but finished terribly and was unable to pitch well at PNC Park throughout the season. If the Pirates add another starter, it is likely that Correia will be the one taken out of the rotation.
??? 6.) A.J. Burnett: As I am writing this entry, the Pirates and Yankees are in discussions about a trade that would send Burnett to Pittsburgh. I would rather absorb more salary than trade any decent prospects if that is an option. I am fine with the Pirates taking $10-15 Million in salary, but the deal is too risky to give up legit prospects. That being said, I think it is very possible that Burnett could have a good comeback year in the NL Central if he is dealt to the Pirates.
Bullpen:
Relief: Jason Grilli, Evan Meek, Daniel McCutchen, Tony Watson, Chris Resop, Chris Leroux
Closer: Joel Hanrahan
The bullpen looks very similar to the 2011 bullpen, with no free agent pick ups in my projected bullpen. A big key to the bullpen will be Evan Meek and if he can rebound to 2010 form after an injury plagued 2011 season. Obviously, the strong point of this year’s bullpen is Joel Hanrahan, who emerged as one of the best closers in the game last year. Watson had a successful rookie season, and Leroux did a very good job in his time with the team late last year.
Outlook:
The key additions to the 2012 team were Barajas, Barmes, McGehee, Bedard, and possibly Burnett. The team has a few “wild card” players that could push them in either direction, including Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, Alex Presley, and Erik Bedard. If these players perform to what they are capable of, especially Alvarez, and the rest of the players continue to grow, the Pirates have the opportunity to have their first winning season in nearly 20 years. There are a few minor leaguers that are not on this list that could be called up to the major leagues, including but not limited to: OF Starling Marte, 1B Matt Hague, IF Chase D’arnaud, IF Josh Harrison, LHP Justin Wilson, and LHP Rudy Owens. Marte (#3 prospect on our list) is the only player listed here that has huge upside, but all these players could contribute to the club this year.
Without any major additions, the Pirates will have to rely on their young players’ continued growth along with big seasons from their wild card’s, mostly Pedro, and McCutchen to push the team towards .500. And with a weakened division, this may be the best chance the Pirates have at the division title for quite some time.
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
2012 Roster Possibilities: Bench
For the most part, the starting lineup for the 2012 Pittsburgh Pirates is settled. The bench, however, is a different story. Generally, a team in the NL will carry five bench players, comprised of at least one backup catcher, at least two players that can play various infield positions, including first base, and one or two backup outfielders. After looking over the current options on the 40-man roster and the non-roster invitees, I feel there are 12 candidates for the bench. This list of players consists of Michael McKenry, Jose Morales, Matt Hague, Jake Fox, Josh Harrison, Casey McGehee, Chase D’arnaud, Yamaico Navarro, Gustavo Nunez, Nate McClouth, Gorkys Hernandez, and Nick Evans.
The backup catcher job will most likely be going to Michael McKenry. Out of the three catching options on this list, the other two being Jose Morales and Jake Fox, McKenry is the only one on the 40-man roster, so there would be no roster move needed in order for him to make the team. Also, McKenry proved he can be a reliable defensive option behind the plate in 2011, and has worked personally with manager Clint Hurdle this offseason, focusing on his hitting ability.
With the Pirates entering the season with Garrett Jones, who struggles against lefties, as the probable starter at first base, righty Casey McGehee is a lock to make the bench. Because of Jones’ struggles to hit lefties, McGehee should see his fair share of starts at first, possibly even in a platoon with Jones. (Also remember that McGehee hit .285 with 23 home runs and 104 RBI’s in 2010.) The other infielders are a little more difficult to project. Harrison, D’arnaud, Navarro, and Nunez are the players that have the ability to play middle infield and third. D’arnaud and Navarro still could be good prospects, so it is probably better for their future if they get everyday playing time in AAA. However, Navarro will probably make the major league team as the backup shortstop because Harrison is new to the position, and Nunez, as a Rule 5 draft pick, probably isn’t capable of staying in the majors.
There won’t be much of a competition for the fourth outfielder, with the signing of former Pirates’ All-Star Nate McClouth. If Presley or Tabata struggle early in the season, McClouth will be ready to step in as a starter, and hopefully he can get back to 2008 form (.853 OPS) with a return to PNC Park. Also, the team will be able to use Garrett Jones as a fifth outfielder if needed.
With McKenry, McGehee, Navarro, and McClouth looking as though they will make the team for opening day, that leaves one more spot. The competition for this spot will most likely be between Josh Harrison and Jake Fox. Harrison can play third, shortstop, and second, while Fox can play catcher, first, third, and left and right field. Harrison could use some more time in AAA to refine his defensive ability his newly learned shortstop position, and it would only benefit him more to get more at bats. Jake Fox has proven that he can hit at the AAA level (41 HR’s, 156 RBI, .955 OPS in 645 at bats), so he is ready to handle major league pitchers, and has already showed some power at the major league level with 20 HR’s in 489 career at bats in the majors.
The bench picture is not clear heading into spring training later this month, but as of now it looks likely to be McKenry, McGehee, Navarro, McClouth, and Fox. Some of these players, specifically McKenry, McGehee, and McClouth, will probably see good playing time, especially if players at their positions struggle. McGehee and McClouth are bounce back candidates who have hit very well in the past, and any improvement on the 2011 season could be a big boost for the 2012 Pirates.
The backup catcher job will most likely be going to Michael McKenry. Out of the three catching options on this list, the other two being Jose Morales and Jake Fox, McKenry is the only one on the 40-man roster, so there would be no roster move needed in order for him to make the team. Also, McKenry proved he can be a reliable defensive option behind the plate in 2011, and has worked personally with manager Clint Hurdle this offseason, focusing on his hitting ability.
With the Pirates entering the season with Garrett Jones, who struggles against lefties, as the probable starter at first base, righty Casey McGehee is a lock to make the bench. Because of Jones’ struggles to hit lefties, McGehee should see his fair share of starts at first, possibly even in a platoon with Jones. (Also remember that McGehee hit .285 with 23 home runs and 104 RBI’s in 2010.) The other infielders are a little more difficult to project. Harrison, D’arnaud, Navarro, and Nunez are the players that have the ability to play middle infield and third. D’arnaud and Navarro still could be good prospects, so it is probably better for their future if they get everyday playing time in AAA. However, Navarro will probably make the major league team as the backup shortstop because Harrison is new to the position, and Nunez, as a Rule 5 draft pick, probably isn’t capable of staying in the majors.
There won’t be much of a competition for the fourth outfielder, with the signing of former Pirates’ All-Star Nate McClouth. If Presley or Tabata struggle early in the season, McClouth will be ready to step in as a starter, and hopefully he can get back to 2008 form (.853 OPS) with a return to PNC Park. Also, the team will be able to use Garrett Jones as a fifth outfielder if needed.
With McKenry, McGehee, Navarro, and McClouth looking as though they will make the team for opening day, that leaves one more spot. The competition for this spot will most likely be between Josh Harrison and Jake Fox. Harrison can play third, shortstop, and second, while Fox can play catcher, first, third, and left and right field. Harrison could use some more time in AAA to refine his defensive ability his newly learned shortstop position, and it would only benefit him more to get more at bats. Jake Fox has proven that he can hit at the AAA level (41 HR’s, 156 RBI, .955 OPS in 645 at bats), so he is ready to handle major league pitchers, and has already showed some power at the major league level with 20 HR’s in 489 career at bats in the majors.
The bench picture is not clear heading into spring training later this month, but as of now it looks likely to be McKenry, McGehee, Navarro, McClouth, and Fox. Some of these players, specifically McKenry, McGehee, and McClouth, will probably see good playing time, especially if players at their positions struggle. McGehee and McClouth are bounce back candidates who have hit very well in the past, and any improvement on the 2011 season could be a big boost for the 2012 Pirates.
Pirates Prospects #9-7
We are now inside the top ten, and these next three guys do not have the highest ceilings out there, but can definitely be nice pieces on a contending team.
9.) Kyle McPherson--RHP--23: McPherson was a surprise addition to the 40-man roster last offseason, mainly because he never had great success at any level. However, it has worked out pretty well for the Pirates. McPherson started the season in high-A, and had great numbers, with a 2.89 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. The stat that really stands out to me was that for every batter he walked, he struck out ten. His strikeout numbers were above average, but weren’t dominant, and that just shows how few walks he issued. These low walk totals allowed him to have such a great WHIP, which is 1.07 throughout his minor league career. After 12 starts in Bradenton, he was promoted to Altoona and didn’t miss a beat. He finished his time in Altoona with 3.02 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, and his strikeout numbers improved as well. His fastball is generally thrown at 92-93 MPH but can go higher, and his curve and change are average pitches. However, when you add the control and command that he has, you’re going to get good results even with average pitches. He made 16 starts for Altoona in 2011, so that should give him enough experience to be able to move up to Indianapolis to start 2012, and he could be up in the majors sometime during the middle of the season.
OFP: 60 (Mid-Rotation Starter)
8.) Robbie Grossman--OF--22: Coming into the 2008 draft, Grossman was thought to be a possible supplemental round pick (usually around picks in the mid 30’s to somewhere in the 50’s) as a switch-hitting outfielder out of high school. The Pirates were able to get him in the 6th round because of a college commitment and his some of his skills were said to be getting worse. He was signed for above-slot money, getting $1 million. Until 2011, Grossman was thought to be a disappointment because he was not hitting well, he was striking out to much, and he was not showing any of the power potential that he was said to have. However, he had a breakout season in 2011, hitting for a .294/.418/.451 line with a .869 OPS, and he became the first minor leaguer to score over 100 runs and draw over 100 walks in a season since Nick Swisher did it in 2004, leading all of minor league baseball in both of those categories. Another encouraging sign from his season was the power he displayed for the first time, hitting for 13 home runs and 34 doubles, both being bests for him. But, all of his success this year came in his second year at this level, so it will be interesting to see if he can continue his success in 2012 with Altoona. Grossman has above average speed and can play center, but will probably end up as a corner outfielder, so it would be nice to see his power continue to develop.
8.) Robbie Grossman--OF--22: Coming into the 2008 draft, Grossman was thought to be a possible supplemental round pick (usually around picks in the mid 30’s to somewhere in the 50’s) as a switch-hitting outfielder out of high school. The Pirates were able to get him in the 6th round because of a college commitment and his some of his skills were said to be getting worse. He was signed for above-slot money, getting $1 million. Until 2011, Grossman was thought to be a disappointment because he was not hitting well, he was striking out to much, and he was not showing any of the power potential that he was said to have. However, he had a breakout season in 2011, hitting for a .294/.418/.451 line with a .869 OPS, and he became the first minor leaguer to score over 100 runs and draw over 100 walks in a season since Nick Swisher did it in 2004, leading all of minor league baseball in both of those categories. Another encouraging sign from his season was the power he displayed for the first time, hitting for 13 home runs and 34 doubles, both being bests for him. But, all of his success this year came in his second year at this level, so it will be interesting to see if he can continue his success in 2012 with Altoona. Grossman has above average speed and can play center, but will probably end up as a corner outfielder, so it would be nice to see his power continue to develop.
OFP: 58 (Solid, Everyday Regular)
7.) Tony Sanchez--C--23: I am a little hesitant to put Sanchez this high on the rankings because of his disastrous 2011 season, but I still believe he deserves this spot. He came into the season as Baseball America’s #46 prospect in baseball, and Pittsburgh fans were hoping he could move up to Indianapolis mid-season and be in position to start 2012 with the major league club, or at least be ready by June. But, none of that happened. Instead, Sanchez struggled immensely at the plate, with a .241 average and .658 OPS, and showed no signs of coming out of his season long slump. He showed none of the power that he had displayed in the past, and actually had a lower slugging percentage than on-base percentage, at .318. This is not something that you want to see from a 23 year-old who came from college and was drafted #4 overall. Despite all this, Sanchez is still a good prospect to keep an eye on. He has shown a lot of offensive potential in his first two seasons with the organization, and he still has shown that he can be an above average defensive catcher in the majors. Its hard to imagine Sanchez not making the majors at some time in his career, even if he continues his offensive struggles, mainly because of his defensive ability. Catchers are very valuable at the major league level, and if Sanchez can start to hit again and continue his defense, he has the potential to be an above average catcher in the majors, and possibly an All-Star. But for this to happen, he has to begin to hit the ball well again. Sanchez should start 2012 in AA, but may begin in AAA because Ramon Cabrera and Carlos Paulino both deserve promotions to AA, and both are catchers.
OFP: 60 (Solid, Everyday Regular)
7.) Tony Sanchez--C--23: I am a little hesitant to put Sanchez this high on the rankings because of his disastrous 2011 season, but I still believe he deserves this spot. He came into the season as Baseball America’s #46 prospect in baseball, and Pittsburgh fans were hoping he could move up to Indianapolis mid-season and be in position to start 2012 with the major league club, or at least be ready by June. But, none of that happened. Instead, Sanchez struggled immensely at the plate, with a .241 average and .658 OPS, and showed no signs of coming out of his season long slump. He showed none of the power that he had displayed in the past, and actually had a lower slugging percentage than on-base percentage, at .318. This is not something that you want to see from a 23 year-old who came from college and was drafted #4 overall. Despite all this, Sanchez is still a good prospect to keep an eye on. He has shown a lot of offensive potential in his first two seasons with the organization, and he still has shown that he can be an above average defensive catcher in the majors. Its hard to imagine Sanchez not making the majors at some time in his career, even if he continues his offensive struggles, mainly because of his defensive ability. Catchers are very valuable at the major league level, and if Sanchez can start to hit again and continue his defense, he has the potential to be an above average catcher in the majors, and possibly an All-Star. But for this to happen, he has to begin to hit the ball well again. Sanchez should start 2012 in AA, but may begin in AAA because Ramon Cabrera and Carlos Paulino both deserve promotions to AA, and both are catchers.
Monday, February 6, 2012
Pirates Top Prospects: #12-10
Here are numbers 12, 11, and 10 on our top prospects countdown. These are three young pitchers, all drafted out of high school, and all with some very good potential, as well as some significant risk.
12.) Zack Von Rosenberg--RHP--20: ZVR had a terrible year on paper. He had a 5.73 ERA while spending the entire season in West Virginia pitching out of the rotation. However, ZVR put up some impressive secondary numbers, with 8.2 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 ratios, to go along with a decent 1.32 WHIP. A lot of his struggles this year can be explained by his lack of command, leaving the ball up in the zone too often. The Pirates teach their minor league pitchers to better command their fastball, so we can expect this to improve moving forward. I ranked ZVR at #17, but I feel like he could make a case for the top 10 because of his potential. Baseball America ranked him as the #41 prospect coming out of the 2009 draft, and he has a lot of upside. His secondary pitches worked very well for him when he used them more, and he finished the season strongly, with a 2.66 ERA in his final 9 starts. He also threw six perfect innings in his last start of the year. If he learns better command of his fastball, ZVR is a definite candidate for a breakout season at Bradenton next year, where he is expected to begin the season.
OFP: 60 (Mid-Rotation Pitcher)
11.) Nick Kingham--RHP--19: Kingham was a 4th round pick in 2010, one of three high school pitchers taken with the first four picks. He has a big frame, at 6’5” and 220 lbs, and throws his fastball at 89-94 MPH with good movement. His change was working great this year, and his curve was an effective pitch when he was throwing it more often. Kingham had a fantastic year in State College, with a 2.15 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 71 innings. He spent a lot of the season working on his fastball command, something that the Pirates have a lot of players focus on in the lower levels. This sometimes leads to inflated ERA’s because hitters know a fastball is coming, so to see such low numbers for Kingham is very encouraging. He didn’t strike out a lot of batters, but he also had good BB numbers. He will be a very interesting prospect to follow over the next few years, and could end up as a #2 or #3 starter in the majors, throwing 200 innings a year. Kingham will start next year in West Virginia.
11.) Nick Kingham--RHP--19: Kingham was a 4th round pick in 2010, one of three high school pitchers taken with the first four picks. He has a big frame, at 6’5” and 220 lbs, and throws his fastball at 89-94 MPH with good movement. His change was working great this year, and his curve was an effective pitch when he was throwing it more often. Kingham had a fantastic year in State College, with a 2.15 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 71 innings. He spent a lot of the season working on his fastball command, something that the Pirates have a lot of players focus on in the lower levels. This sometimes leads to inflated ERA’s because hitters know a fastball is coming, so to see such low numbers for Kingham is very encouraging. He didn’t strike out a lot of batters, but he also had good BB numbers. He will be a very interesting prospect to follow over the next few years, and could end up as a #2 or #3 starter in the majors, throwing 200 innings a year. Kingham will start next year in West Virginia.
OFP: 62 (Mid to Upper Rotation Starter)
10.) Colton Cain--LHP--20: Another high school pitcher, Cain was drafted in the 8th round of the 2009 draft, but was rated the #109 prospect in the draft by Baseball America. Cain was very consistent as a starter this year, and put up good numbers while in the rotation. He started 19 games for West Virginia, and had a 3.13 ERA, but had a 7.94 ERA in five appearances out of the bullpen. As a starter, opponents hit only .211 against him, and this came after a year where opponents hit .189 in State College. He also doesn’t walk too many batters, so he keeps players off the bases, which is definitely helpful. His strikeout numbers dropped a little this year, but that’s not something to be too concerned about right now. Cain throws his fastball in the upper 80’s and lower 90’s, so he is not a flamethrower. He compliments his fastball with a change and a curve, which both have the chance to be above average major league pitches. If Cain can continue to develop his mechanics and stay consistent, he can be a solid #3 starter in the majors. He will start next season in Bradenton, with an outside chance of moving up to Altoona if he has success.
OFP: 53 (Bottom of Rotation Starter)
10.) Colton Cain--LHP--20: Another high school pitcher, Cain was drafted in the 8th round of the 2009 draft, but was rated the #109 prospect in the draft by Baseball America. Cain was very consistent as a starter this year, and put up good numbers while in the rotation. He started 19 games for West Virginia, and had a 3.13 ERA, but had a 7.94 ERA in five appearances out of the bullpen. As a starter, opponents hit only .211 against him, and this came after a year where opponents hit .189 in State College. He also doesn’t walk too many batters, so he keeps players off the bases, which is definitely helpful. His strikeout numbers dropped a little this year, but that’s not something to be too concerned about right now. Cain throws his fastball in the upper 80’s and lower 90’s, so he is not a flamethrower. He compliments his fastball with a change and a curve, which both have the chance to be above average major league pitches. If Cain can continue to develop his mechanics and stay consistent, he can be a solid #3 starter in the majors. He will start next season in Bradenton, with an outside chance of moving up to Altoona if he has success.
Sunday, February 5, 2012
2012 Roster Possibilities: Bullpen
In his time with Pittsburgh, Neal Huntington has been able to assemble decent bullpens for low costs. He would bring in veteran relievers, such as Brendan Donnelly, Jose Veras, Javier Lopez, who had some success in the year or two before at the majors for prices around $1 Million. These players would stick around for a year or so then be traded or designated for assignment and the process would begin again. However, heading into 2012 the bullpen appears to be nearly set with players already in the organization.
Generally, bullpens are made up of seven pitchers in the National League so the team can carry five bench position players. Three relievers, Daniel McCutchen, Jason Grilli, and All-Star closer Joel Hanrahan, are all coming off successful seasons and appear to be locks for the bullpen in 2012. That leaves four spots left, two of which are likely to be filled by Evan Meek and Chris Resop. Evan Meek had a stellar season in 2010, making the All-Star team and finishing with a 2.14 ERA, but battled injuries in 2011 and only appeared in 24 games. Resop appeared in 76 games in 2011, which was the second most on the team. He was inconsistent for most of the season, but finished with a decent 4.39 ERA and a great 10.2 K/9 rate.
This leaves two spots remaining. Clint Hurdle has said in the past that he prefers having two lefties in the bullpen, but I don’t believe that is going to happen. The Pirates seem to be pretty high on righty Chris Leroux, who posted a 2.88 ERA in 23 appearances last year, while putting up a good 8.6 K/9 rate. With one spot remaining, I would imagine it is going to be given to Tony Watson, the lefty reliever who had a solid rookie season in 2011 with a 3.95 ERA and 8.1 K/9 rate in 43 appearances.
It is likely that these seven players will make up the bullpen, and LHP’s Danny Moskos, Jo-Jo Reyes, Doug Slaten and Brian Tallet, and RHP Jared Hughes will provide immediate depth in the minors in case of injury. Also, prospects Bryan Morris and Justin Wilson have chances of being promoted to the majors at some point during the season. Both players started the year off in the rotation in their respective levels, but struggles led them to be placed in the bullpen. In the bullpen, both players put up solid results. Morris, the player who was supposed to be the prized prospect in the Jason Bay trade, put up a 2.05 ERA in the bullpen, which should allow him to start in the AAA bullpen in 2012. Wilson, a lefty, was throwing his fastball between 88-93 MPH, but when he switched to a bullpen role he was throwing in the upper 90’s, even touching 99 MPH at a point. A lefty reliever who can throw in the upper 90’s is very rare, so Wilson could be a valuable part of the bullpen very soon.
The 2012 bullpen looks very similar to the 2011 bullpen, which was reliable at points. Joel Hanrahan had a great 2011, and if he puts up the same results in 2012 he will cement himself as one of the game’s premier closers. Evan Meek is finally healthy, so he could return to his 2010 form. Grilli and Leroux had good stints for the Pirates last year, and hopefully that will continue. If all of these circumstances come true in 2012, the Pirates will have a reliable bullpen that can back up the rotation when needed and avoid blowing leads to close out games.
Sunday, November 13, 2011
2012 Roster Possibilities: Starting Rotation
Many people are saying that the Pirates are going into the 2012 season with four guaranteed starting pitchers, who are Jeff Karstens, James McDonald, Charlie Morton, and Kevin Correia. While I’m not going to disagree that these four appear to be locks in the rotation, I will still say that I don’t think one of them should be a lock. Karstens, McDonald, and Morton all deserve to be in the rotation, but I don’t think Correia should have a definitive spot. He did make the All-Star team, but he didn’t deserve to make it. The main reason why he did make it was that he was near the leaders in wins for the NL, so people thought he was warranted a spot. However, his ERA going into the All-Star break was 4.01. That isn’t bad, but it is not All-Star worthy. What I am trying to say here is that wins do not matter nearly as much as ERA, especially for a team like the Pirates. Usually it is tough for pitchers on a bad team to get wins because of lack of run support, a big example being Paul Maholm, so they can pile up a large amount of losses even if they are pitching well. Correia somehow came out on the other end of this, winning many games while not pitching great because the offense was scoring runs when he was on the mound. Also, Correia pitched absolutely terrible at PNC Park this year, with a 7.71 ERA in 12 games at home versus a 2.64 in 14 games on the road. He has never been an above average pitcher in the major leagues, so don’t think he can lead the staff just because he led the team in wins. I’m not saying he shouldn’t be in the rotation, I’m just saying he shouldn’t be a lock.
An internal candidate that I think should definitely be given a chance is Brad Lincoln. He didn’t have a great year in AAA, but was called up to the Pirates for good in August, where he initially pitched out of the bullpen. Eventually, he was moved to the rotation because of injuries to the other starters, and pitched respectably in that role. He trailed off at the end of the season, but that may be due to fatigue. He has good upside as a 26 year old, so he should definitely be considered for one of the additions to the rotation.
Another internal candidate for the rotation is Jeff Locke. Locke came up as a September call up after only five starts in AAA, and clearly was not ready for the majors. In his four major league starts, he posted a 6.48 ERA, along with a 1.86 ERA. Those are both terrible numbers, and prove he should not have been in the rotation at all. He’s not really a good option at all for the opening day rotation, but he could be recalled to join the rotation at any time in 2012.
The final internal candidate that I would like to suggest, and I may be the only one who does suggest him, is Daniel McCutchen. The Pirates acquired McCutchen from the Yankees in the Nady/Marte deal as a starter, and has made 15 career starts in the majors. Although he hasn’t done particularly well in those starts (5.45 ERA), he had a solid year out of the bullpen and pitched well when needed in a long relief role. There is only a very slim chance that he will even be considered as an option, but I believe that he at least deserves a look.
There are a lot of options that the Pirates will look at on the free agent market, but they will most likely avoid any high priced players, which includes all type A and type B free agents. Three pitchers that the Pirates should consider are Chris Capuano, Jon Garland, and Rich Harden.
Capuano is a good option because the Pirates do not currently have a lefty starter who is ready to handle a rotation spot in the majors, and a veteran such as Capuano could be a possible fit to fill that void. He’s had decent results in his career, similar to those of Paul Maholm, and he would come at a cheaper price. There’s little doubt that the Pirates will pursue Capuano in some way, but the market is thin on quality lefty starters, so he may be tough to acquire.
Jon Garland is a solid starter, and has pitched well since coming into the National League. He had a very good year in 2010 with the Padres, going 15-12 with a 3.47 ERA, so he would be a good short term addition to the rotation. However, he will also be in high demand, so he will be tough to acquire as well.
With Rich Harden, you have a pitcher who has a lot of upside and great results in the past, but you also have a pitcher who has battled multiple injuries in the past. When healthy, Harden is an above average MLB pitcher who can have an ERA under 3.00, but when unhealthy, he will struggle. Over the past two years, Harden has seen his ERA rise above 5.00, but has also only made 33 starts in that time. The most innings he has logged in a season is 189 in 2004 as a 22 year old, showing that his arm may not be ready to handle a full season of pitching. Still, out of these three pitchers, I believe Harden is the best deal because of his upside. He probably doesn’t have the ability to pitch an entire season, but hopefully some of the pitchers in the minors will be ready to take over when necessary. Although Harden is the best option, Capuano is the most likely of the three to be a Pirate because of his price and the team’s need for a left handed pitcher.
The Pirates have depth in the upper levels of their minor league system, with players who can reach the majors in 2012. Some minor league pitchers that may be able to step up this year and fill a rotation spot are Rudy Owens, Justin Wilson, Jeff Locke, and Kyle McPherson. Coming into 2011, fans were hopeful that Owens would be promoted to the Pirates sometime in the summer and make an immediate impact in the rotation. However, he lost the control he showed in the past that gave him great results, and this caused him to struggle throughout the year. Unless he rediscovers this control, he will not be in the rotation in 2012. If he regains his control, he could be the lefty starter in the Paul Maholm mold that the Pirates are looking for. Much of the same can be said about Jeff Locke, but after an impressive five starts in AAA, he was given the chance to start in the majors. He did not take advantage of this opportunity, but it gave him valuable experience that he will learn from and hopefully approve upon. It may also have him favored for a call up amongst this group because he has already faced major league hitting.
Justin Wilson is an interesting option because he was moved to the bullpen late in the season, where he reportedly reached 99 MPH with his fastball. Because he has great stuff and velocity as a left hander, a permanent switch to the bullpen may be best for him.
Kyle McPherson had a great year between high-A and AA, so should start the 2012 season in AAA. If he continues to improve, he could be in the majors by July and make a good impression in the rotation. But, don’t get your hopes up because the same things were said about Rudy Owens last year, so we have to be careful with our predictions.
The Pirates are going into the off season with what appears to be four locks in the rotation. They will look at free agents and internal options for the final spot. If they look at free agents, the most likely option would be the lefty Chris Capuano. If they stay with a pitcher already in the system, it will be Brad Lincoln. Also, I thought I’d add that #1 draft pick Gerrit Cole has a small chance of making it to the majors this year, but it is very unlikely that he will unless the team is in contention late in the season.
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
Top 30 Prospects: #15-13
15.) Alex Dickerson--1B--21: Dickerson was drafted in the third round of this year’s draft, and could very well be a big steal. Coming into the draft, he was rated the #42 best player available by Baseball America, and fell to the Pirates as the 91st pick. This can be explained because he has a history of back problems, and this may mean he could have been ranked higher than #42 if he was healthy. So, this means that the Pirates may have gotten 1st round talent with each of their first three picks. Dickerson hit very well in 150 State College at bats, with a .313/.393/.493 line. He has a good deal of power potential, and that showed up this year with 16 doubles, but only three home runs. But, those doubles should turn into homers as he adjusts to using wooden bats. It is expected that Dickerson will start next year in Bradenton and skip over West Virginia because he was drafted as a college senior, and this means he could rise to the majors relatively quickly, possibly as soon as June 2013. He has the potential to be an above average hitting first basemen in the majors with 30+ home run power. This is something the Pirates definitely wanted in their system, and it would be a big boost to the organization if Dickerson continues to perform well.
OFP: 55 (Solid, Everyday Regular)
14.) Justin Wilson--LHP--24: Wilson is a similar prospect to Bryan Morris. Both have good stuff, but they are getting older for being prospects and also started the year in the rotation and ended in the bullpen. Morris has the higher upside, but Wilson has had the better results. Wilson started the season pitching very well out of the rotation, with a 2.25 ERA in April, but cooled off over the rest of the season and struggled with his control, a problem that he has had throughout his time in the minors. He struggles with his control because his pitches have a lot of movement, so they may move out of the strike zone. He was moved to the bullpen in August, and had some success there, but still struggled with control, allowing ten walks in 14 innings out of the ‘pen. However, Wilson was throwing in the upper 90’s, even touching 99, which came as a surprise as he was usually hovering around 88-93 MPH while starting. It is rare to have a lefty reliever touching the upper 90’s with great movement on his pitches, so a permanent move to the bullpen may be a good decision. He will probably go back to Indianapolis next year, and has a good chance to move up to the majors eventually. There is still a chance (higher chance than Morris) that he will be in the Indianapolis rotation next year, but I don’t see him as a starter in Pittsburgh, at least not next season.
14.) Justin Wilson--LHP--24: Wilson is a similar prospect to Bryan Morris. Both have good stuff, but they are getting older for being prospects and also started the year in the rotation and ended in the bullpen. Morris has the higher upside, but Wilson has had the better results. Wilson started the season pitching very well out of the rotation, with a 2.25 ERA in April, but cooled off over the rest of the season and struggled with his control, a problem that he has had throughout his time in the minors. He struggles with his control because his pitches have a lot of movement, so they may move out of the strike zone. He was moved to the bullpen in August, and had some success there, but still struggled with control, allowing ten walks in 14 innings out of the ‘pen. However, Wilson was throwing in the upper 90’s, even touching 99, which came as a surprise as he was usually hovering around 88-93 MPH while starting. It is rare to have a lefty reliever touching the upper 90’s with great movement on his pitches, so a permanent move to the bullpen may be a good decision. He will probably go back to Indianapolis next year, and has a good chance to move up to the majors eventually. There is still a chance (higher chance than Morris) that he will be in the Indianapolis rotation next year, but I don’t see him as a starter in Pittsburgh, at least not next season.
OFP: 55 (Solid Back-End of Bullpen Pitcher/Back of Rotation)
13.) Jeff Locke--LHP--23: Locke was a September call-up for the Pirates this year, and had a 6.48 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in four stars. Both are terrible numbers, and his walk and strikeout numbers have been horrible. This shows us that he probably wasn’t ready to be called up, especially after only spending a month in AAA. He started the season in AA and didn’t have too much success, but was able to put up a 4.03 ERA. Throughout his time in the minors, Locke has put up great K/BB numbers, with a career 8.2/2.4 ratio. This year, his strikeout numbers were in line with this, but his walks rose to 3.2 per nine innings. His control led to the less than spectacular numbers he put up this year. However, he had great success when he was promoted to AAA, and this prompted his September call-up. The best thing we can hope from Locke at this point is to be a consistent lefty starter in the majors with good control and decent strikeout numbers. Or in other words, Paul Maholm with more K’s. He will begin next year in AAA, with a good chance to be recalled at any time.
13.) Jeff Locke--LHP--23: Locke was a September call-up for the Pirates this year, and had a 6.48 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in four stars. Both are terrible numbers, and his walk and strikeout numbers have been horrible. This shows us that he probably wasn’t ready to be called up, especially after only spending a month in AAA. He started the season in AA and didn’t have too much success, but was able to put up a 4.03 ERA. Throughout his time in the minors, Locke has put up great K/BB numbers, with a career 8.2/2.4 ratio. This year, his strikeout numbers were in line with this, but his walks rose to 3.2 per nine innings. His control led to the less than spectacular numbers he put up this year. However, he had great success when he was promoted to AAA, and this prompted his September call-up. The best thing we can hope from Locke at this point is to be a consistent lefty starter in the majors with good control and decent strikeout numbers. Or in other words, Paul Maholm with more K’s. He will begin next year in AAA, with a good chance to be recalled at any time.
OFP: 55 (Back of Rotation Pitcher)
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