When Should Starling Marte Be Called Up?

In our rankings last September, Starling Marte was the #3 prospect in the Pirates’ organization.  He was coming off a year where he hit for a .332 average and an .870 OPS, along with 12 home runs and 24 stolen bases.  He followed his stellar 2011 campaign with a great offensive showing early in spring training this year with the major league club, hitting .520 with a 1.440 OPS and three home runs in 25 at bats.  This had many fans calling for the team to keep Marte on the major league roster to start the season, but management made the right decision by sending him to AAA Indianapolis to work on plate patience and to get time at the corner outfield positions, where he will most likely play as long as Andrew McCutchen is in center for the Pirates.  But having Marte one step away from the majors in AAA leads to the question, when will he get the call?
Marte’s arrival in the majors really depends on a couple factors.  Obviously, one of them is how he is performing in AAA.  If he continues to hit like he has, then it will be very difficult for the Pirates to keep him down.  The other factor in his call up will be how Alex Presley and Jose Tabata perform.  If one of these two struggle, then that will lead to a higher possibility of Marte getting the call.  Likewise, if both of these players exceed expectations, then that will lower the chances of Marte having a spot on the major league roster.  If Marte doesn’t respond well to the more advanced AAA pitching, it will not matter how Presley and Tabata hit, and will show that Marte needs more time in the minors.
As mentioned in the first paragraph, Marte needs to work on his plate patience and get more experience in left and/or right field before he can be called up to the majors.  In his minor league career leading up to this season, he has struck out in 21.6% of his at-bats.  That’s not too bad, and he even lowered his strikeout rate to 18.7% in 2011.  However, he has a career walk rate of 4.7%, and 3.8% in 2011.  That is bad.  Obviously, this hasn’t really affected his performance too much in the minors, but if he continues this, major league pitchers will exploit this weakness.  Marte is an aggressive hitter, many times swinging at pitches that are not in the strike zone.  But, if he would allow these pitches to go buy as balls, he would get more walks and see better pitches to hit later in the count.  Not only would this raise his on base percentage, it could also raise his average because of the more hittable pitches.  
Marte is a very good defensive centerfielder, probably better than McCutchen.  However, he has very little experience at the corner outfield positions in the higher levels, and in spring training, he looked a little lost at those spots.  For the Pirates, Marte will most likely play left field, where he has only played seven times in the minors.  Being a good fielder, this shouldn’t take long for Marte to adjust to, but it is better to get him used to the position in the minors, rather than with the major league club.  PNC Park has a very large left field, so it will be good having a player with Marte’s speed and defense to man that position.
So, when should Marte get called up?  The earliest time I could see the Pirates calling up Marte is early to mid June.  This will give the team enough time to evaluate his performance at AAA, and to see how Presley and Tabata handle themselves at the majors.  If Marte is hitting .300-.315 or better with an OPS of over .820 and his strikeout and walk numbers improve, then he should get serious consideration by the beginning of July.  Even if Presley and Tabata are hitting well, you can’t ignore Marte’s talent and potential impact on the team, and it really wouldn’t benefit him to stay in AAA.  In the majors, Marte could be an .300+ hitter with 15-20 homers a year, with great speed and great defense.  The Pirates could have a very good duo with Marte and McCutchen, and hopefully we will get a taste of what that is like at some point this summer.

Pirates Prospects #6-4

Up next in our prospects countdown are three guys who are young and unpolished, but have as much upside as any other prospects in baseball. 

6.) Stetson Allie--RHP--20:  With Allie, there is a lot of risk involved, but the reward can be very high.  He hadn’t really pitched a good amount before his senior year in high school, but he had great natural pitches and velocity (hitting triple digits often)  and pitched well enough to earn the #8 prospect in the 2010 pre-draft rankings by Baseball America.  He fell to the Pirates in the second round because of the money he wanted, but the Pirates were able to sign him for a $2.25 million bonus.  Some expected him to begin the season with West Virginia, but that wouldn’t have been a good decision due to his lack of experience on the mound.  He made his debut with State College when their season started, and pitched out of the rotation.  His control was a major question mark coming into the season, and he showed why that was.  Allie struggled with control throughout the season, and was moved to the bullpen to work on it.  The control never really came, and he ended up walking 29 batters in 26 innings, but he also struck out 28.  A positive sign from the season was that hitters only batted .208 against him, so if he can better control his pitches, he will be something special.  Some see his long term role as a power closer, but for now the Pirates will most likely continue his development as a starter.  I believe he will start in extended Spring Training next year, but he could be in West Virginia sometime in late April or May if he makes strides with his control.  If everything goes right, Allie can be a top of the rotation starter with a fastball nearing 100 MPH, along with a great breaking slider that can reach the low 90’s.

OFP: 65 (Borderline Top of Rotation Starter or Back of Bullpen Pitcher)

5.) Josh Bell--LF--19:  The Pirates selected the switch hitting Josh Bell in the 2nd round of the 2011 draft, although he was Baseball America’s #15 prospect in the draft.  He fell to the Pirates because he was considered an impossible sign after sending a letter to all 30 teams telling them not to draft him.  Not fazed by this, the Pirates took the risk, and it payed off in the end.  They were able to sign Bell for $5 million, and he immediately became one of the top prospects in the system.  He has possibly the best power in the system already, after hitting 14 home runs in only 81 AB’s in high school.  That’s a home run every 5.8 AB’s.  I know its high school, but that’s still very impressive.  He hit for a .552 average and a 1.760 OPS, and also drew 48 walks while striking out only five times.  This is the kind of hitter every team wants in their system.  The Pirates are not very deep when it comes to hitting prospects, and few players have shown power potential.  Having Bell gives the organization a player that has potential plus power from both sides of the plate, and can also hit for a good average.  Bell could move quickly through the system because of his ability, and will most likely start 2012 in West Virginia.  Bell has the talent to be a .280+ hitter with 35 home runs a season, and could be a fix in the middle of the Pirates’ order for years to come.

OFP: 68 (Major-League Star)


4.) Luis Heredia--RHP--17:  The player on this list that has the highest upside may very well be Luis Heredia.  He was signed out of Mexico as a 16 year-old, receiving a $2.6 million bonus, although ¾ of that went to Veracruz, the team he was playing for at the time.  Heredia is very big, especially for his age, standing at 6’6”, and he has the ability to pitch in the mid-90’s, reportedly hitting 96 at times earlier this season, which is very impressive for a 16 year-old.  He had a few fastballs that he threw, along with a slider, curve, and change.  His fastballs, curve, and change all have the potential to be plus pitches in the majors, and anyone with four plus pitches is going to be dominant.  Heredia spent the 2011 season pitching in the Gulf Coast League, where his innings were limited to about 2-3 innings for most starts.  His control wasn’t great, but you have to remember that this kid played most of the season at 16.  He struck out a decent number of batters, but the most encouraging part of his game was that he was hard to hit in many starts.  He let up less hits than innings pitched this year, which isn’t unusual, but again, the kid was 16 during the season.  Heredia will most likely pitch out of the State College rotation next season, and he is young enough that he can still add more velocity to his pitches.  Heredia has the upside as a consistent Cy Young candidate with four plus pitches, including a fastball that could be sitting in the upper-90’s.

OFP: 70 (Top of Rotation Starter)

Pirates Prospects #9-7

We are now inside the top ten, and these next three guys do not have the highest ceilings out there, but can definitely be nice pieces on a contending team.

9.) Kyle McPherson--RHP--23:  McPherson was a surprise addition to the 40-man roster last offseason, mainly because he never had great success at any level.  However, it has worked out pretty well for the Pirates.  McPherson started the season in high-A, and had great numbers, with a 2.89 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.  The stat that really stands out to me was that for every batter he walked, he struck out ten.  His strikeout numbers were above average, but weren’t dominant, and that just shows how few walks he issued.  These low walk totals allowed him to have such a great WHIP, which is 1.07 throughout his minor league career.  After 12 starts in Bradenton, he was promoted to Altoona and didn’t miss a beat.  He finished his time in Altoona with 3.02 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, and his strikeout numbers improved as well.  His fastball is generally thrown at 92-93 MPH but can go higher, and his curve and change are average pitches.  However, when you add the control and command that he has, you’re going to get good results even with average pitches.  He made 16 starts for Altoona in 2011, so that should give him enough experience to be able to move up to Indianapolis to start 2012, and he could be up in the majors sometime during the middle of the season.                 

OFP: 60 (Mid-Rotation Starter)

8.) Robbie Grossman--OF--22:  Coming into the 2008 draft, Grossman was thought to be a possible supplemental round pick (usually around picks in the mid 30’s to somewhere in the 50’s) as a switch-hitting outfielder out of high school.  The Pirates were able to get him in the 6th round because of a college commitment and his some of his skills were said to be getting worse.  He was signed for above-slot money, getting $1 million.  Until 2011, Grossman was thought to be a disappointment because he was not hitting well, he was striking out to much, and he was not showing any of the power potential that he was said to have.  However, he had a breakout season in 2011, hitting for a .294/.418/.451 line with a .869 OPS, and he became the first minor leaguer to score over 100 runs and draw over 100 walks in a season since Nick Swisher did it in 2004, leading all of minor league baseball in both of those categories.  Another encouraging sign from his season was the power he displayed for the first time, hitting for 13 home runs and 34 doubles, both being bests for him.  But, all of his success this year came in his second year at this level, so it will be interesting to see if he can continue his success in 2012 with Altoona.  Grossman has above average speed and can play center, but will probably end up as a corner outfielder, so it would be nice to see his power continue to develop.  

OFP: 58 (Solid, Everyday Regular)

7.) Tony Sanchez--C--23:  I am a little hesitant to put Sanchez this high on the rankings because of his disastrous 2011 season, but I still believe he deserves this spot.  He came into the season as Baseball America’s #46 prospect in baseball, and Pittsburgh fans were hoping he could move up to Indianapolis mid-season and be in position to start 2012 with the major league club, or at least be ready by June.  But, none of that happened.  Instead, Sanchez struggled immensely at the plate, with a .241 average and .658 OPS, and showed no signs of coming out of his season long slump.  He showed none of the power that he had displayed in the past, and actually had a lower slugging percentage than on-base percentage, at .318.  This is not something that you want to see from a 23 year-old who came from college and was drafted #4 overall.  Despite all this, Sanchez is still a good prospect to keep an eye on.  He has shown a lot of offensive potential in his first two seasons with the organization, and he still has shown that he can be an above average defensive catcher in the majors.  Its hard to imagine Sanchez not making the majors at some time in his career, even if he continues his offensive struggles, mainly because of his defensive ability.  Catchers are very valuable at the major league level, and if Sanchez can start to hit again and continue his defense, he has the potential to be an above average catcher in the majors, and possibly an All-Star.  But for this to happen, he has to begin to hit the ball well again.  Sanchez should start 2012 in AA, but may begin in AAA because Ramon Cabrera and Carlos Paulino both deserve promotions to AA, and both are catchers.

OFP: 60 (Solid, Everyday Regular)

Pirates Top Prospects: #12-10

Here are numbers 12, 11, and 10 on our top prospects countdown.  These are three young pitchers, all drafted out of high school, and all with some very good potential, as well as some significant risk.

12.) Zack Von Rosenberg--RHP--20:  ZVR had a terrible year on paper.  He had a 5.73 ERA while spending the entire season in West Virginia pitching out of the rotation.  However, ZVR put up some impressive secondary numbers, with 8.2 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 ratios, to go along with a decent 1.32 WHIP.  A lot of his struggles this year can be explained by his lack of command, leaving the ball up in the zone too often.  The Pirates teach their minor league pitchers to better command their fastball, so we can expect this to improve moving forward.  I ranked ZVR at #17, but I feel like he could make a case for the top 10 because of his potential.  Baseball America ranked him as the #41 prospect coming out of the 2009 draft, and he has a lot of upside.  His secondary pitches worked very well for him when he used them more, and he finished the season strongly, with a 2.66 ERA in his final 9 starts.  He also threw six perfect innings in his last start of the year.  If he learns better command of his fastball, ZVR is a definite candidate for a breakout season at Bradenton next year, where he is expected to begin the season.

OFP: 60 (Mid-Rotation Pitcher)

11.) Nick Kingham--RHP--19:  Kingham was a 4th round pick in 2010, one of three high school pitchers taken with the first four picks.  He has a big frame, at 6’5” and 220 lbs, and throws his fastball at 89-94 MPH with good movement.  His change was working great this year, and his curve was an effective pitch when he was throwing it more often.  Kingham had a fantastic year in State College, with a 2.15 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 71 innings.   He spent a lot of the season working on his fastball command, something that the Pirates have a lot of players focus on in the lower levels.  This sometimes leads to inflated ERA’s because hitters know a fastball is coming, so to see such low numbers for Kingham is very encouraging.  He didn’t strike out a lot of batters, but he also had good BB numbers.  He will be a very interesting prospect to follow over the next few years, and could end up as a #2 or #3 starter in the majors, throwing 200 innings a year.  Kingham will start next year in West Virginia.

OFP: 62 (Mid to Upper Rotation Starter)

10.) Colton Cain--LHP--20:  Another high school pitcher, Cain was drafted in the 8th round of the 2009 draft, but was rated the #109 prospect in the draft by Baseball America.  Cain was very consistent as a starter this year, and put up good numbers while in the rotation.  He started 19 games for West Virginia, and had a 3.13 ERA, but had a 7.94 ERA in five appearances out of the bullpen.  As a starter, opponents hit only .211 against him, and this came after a year where opponents hit .189 in State College.  He also doesn’t walk too many batters, so he keeps players off the bases, which is definitely helpful.  His strikeout numbers dropped a little this year, but that’s not something to be too concerned about right now.  Cain throws his fastball in the upper 80’s and lower 90’s, so he is not a flamethrower.  He compliments his fastball with a change and a curve, which both have the chance to be above average major league pitches.  If Cain can continue to develop his mechanics and stay consistent, he can be a solid #3 starter in the majors.  He will start next season in Bradenton, with an outside chance of moving up to Altoona if he has success.

OFP: 53 (Bottom of Rotation Starter)

Top 30 Prospects: #15-13

15.) Alex Dickerson--1B--21:  Dickerson was drafted in the third round of this year’s draft, and could very well be a big steal.  Coming into the draft, he was rated the #42 best player available by Baseball America, and fell to the Pirates as the 91st pick.  This can be explained because he has a history of back problems, and this may mean he could have been ranked higher than #42 if he was healthy.  So, this means that the Pirates may have gotten 1st round talent with each of their first three picks.  Dickerson hit very well in 150 State College at bats, with a .313/.393/.493 line.  He has a good deal of power potential, and that showed up this year with 16 doubles, but only three home runs.  But, those doubles should turn into homers as he adjusts to using wooden bats.  It is expected that Dickerson will start next year in Bradenton and skip over West Virginia because he was drafted as a college senior, and this means he could rise to the majors relatively quickly, possibly as soon as June 2013.  He has the potential to be an above average hitting first basemen in the majors with 30+ home run power.  This is something the Pirates definitely wanted in their system, and it would be a big boost to the organization if Dickerson continues to perform well.      

OFP: 55 (Solid, Everyday Regular)

14.) Justin Wilson--LHP--24:  Wilson is a similar prospect to Bryan Morris.  Both have good stuff, but they are getting older for being prospects and also started the year in the rotation and ended in the bullpen.  Morris has the higher upside, but Wilson has had the better results.  Wilson started the season pitching very well out of the rotation, with a 2.25 ERA in April, but cooled off over the rest of the season and struggled with his control, a problem that he has had throughout his time in the minors.  He struggles with his control because his pitches have a lot of movement, so they may move out of the strike zone.  He was moved to the bullpen in August, and had some success there, but still struggled with control, allowing ten walks in 14 innings out of the ‘pen.  However, Wilson was throwing in the upper 90’s, even touching 99, which came as a surprise as he was usually hovering around 88-93 MPH while starting.  It is rare to have a lefty reliever touching the upper 90’s with great movement on his pitches, so a permanent move to the bullpen may be a good decision.  He will probably go back to Indianapolis next year, and has a good chance to move up to the majors eventually.  There is still a chance (higher chance than Morris) that he will be in the Indianapolis rotation next year, but I don’t see him as a starter in Pittsburgh, at least not next season.

OFP: 55 (Solid Back-End of Bullpen Pitcher/Back of Rotation)

13.) Jeff Locke--LHP--23:  Locke was a September call-up for the Pirates this year, and had a 6.48 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in four stars.  Both are terrible numbers, and his walk and strikeout numbers have been horrible.  This shows us that he probably wasn’t ready to be called up, especially after only spending a month in AAA.  He started the season in AA and didn’t have too much success, but was able to put up a 4.03 ERA.  Throughout his time in the minors, Locke has put up great K/BB numbers, with a career 8.2/2.4 ratio.   This year, his strikeout numbers were in line with this, but his walks rose to 3.2 per nine innings.  His control led to the less than spectacular numbers he put up this year.  However, he had great success when he was promoted to AAA, and this prompted his September call-up.  The best thing we can hope from Locke at this point is to be a consistent lefty starter in the majors with good control and decent strikeout numbers.  Or in other words, Paul Maholm with more K’s.  He will begin next year in AAA, with a good chance to be recalled at any time.

OFP:  55 (Back of Rotation Pitcher)

Top 30 Prospects #18-16

18.) Matt Curry--1B--23:  To be honest, I had no idea who Matt Curry was coming into the 2011 season.  He was a 16th round selection as a college senior in 2010, and this was actually the second time the Pirates drafted him, doing so in 2008 as well.  He is said to be a “bat first” player, meaning that he can only hit, but he has a career .994 fielding percentage in two years in the minors.  Curry hit well in 2010 after being drafted, finishing with a .299/.421/.477 line in State College, but good college hitters should perform well in that league.  He started 2011 in West Virginia, where he also was expected to hit well because he came out of college.  At West Virginia, he was unstoppable, hitting .361 with nine HR’s and a 1.148 OPS in 155 AB’s.  This prompted his call up to Altoona, skipping over high-A because they wanted to give him and Aaron Baker (now in the Orioles organization) an everyday position.  He struggled initially, but got hot after a month, only to finish the season terribly.  In his time with Altoona, he hit .242 with six HR’s and a .694 OPS in 302 AB’s.  This was disappointing, but he did still skip over a level.  He should start 2012 in Altoona again, and could be the long term answer at first base that the Pirates have been looking for over the last few years, hitting for average and 15-25 HR’s.

OFP: 50 (Fringe Bench/Regular)

17.) Jarek Cunningham--2B--21:  A lot of Cunningham’s potential comes from the fact that he can be a power hitting middle-infielder.  He got off to a really hot start this year with his power, but began to slump around June, and this continued until July when he went to the DL with concussion symptoms.  His overall line for the year was .260/.325/.514, and this includes the two games he played in the rookie league during a rehab stint.  He doesn’t hit for a high average and he will strike out a good amount, but this can be overlooked if he has a high OPS and continues to hit for power.  It is likely he will begin next season in AA as the regular second baseman.  If everything goes right for Cunningham, he could turn out to be a player that resembles Dan Uggla, a player who won’t hit for a high average, but is that rare second baseman who can hit for power.

OFP: 52 (Solid, Everyday Regular)

16.) Bryan Morris--RHP--24:  Morris is an interesting prospect.  He was a 1st round draft pick by the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2006, and came over to the Pirates as the prize in the Jason Bay trade.  Since then, he has underperformed compared to the “front of the rotation starter” that the Pirates envisioned when they acquired him.  In his first full season in the organization, he did terrible in high-A while battling injuries, then returned for another season, where he was dominant before being called up to AA.  He pitched respectably there, and again started the season there this year.  After making three starts, he strained his oblique and did not return until May.  He came back and struggled as a starter, and was moved to the bullpen permanently.  As a starter, his ERA was 6.04, but it was 2.05 out of the bullpen.  Former Director of Player Development Kyle Stark hinted that Morris will remain in the bullpen, but there is still a slight chance he can still be a starter.  Morris has dominant stuff out of the ‘pen, and this could help him move to the majors quickly next season.  He is already on the 40 man roster, and will start next season in the Indianapolis bullpen.  The best case scenario for Morris could be as a great set-up man or possible closer in the future.

OFP: 53 (Above-Average Bullpen Pitcher)

Top Prospects: #21-19

21.) Jordy Mercer--SS--25:  Jordy Mercer is the top shortstop prospect the Pirates have now that Chase D’arnaud is no longer prospect eligible, and is also the closest to the majors.  Concerns about Mercer rose last year because his power pretty much disappeared, and that was a big part of his prospect status.  Fortunately, his power returned this year, and in a big way.  He hit 13 home runs in Altoona before being called up to Indianapolis mid-season, hitting six more at that level, giving him 19 on the year in 491 AB’s.  This came after the year where he hit only three in 485 AB’s.  If he can continue to hit with some power and keep his OPS around .800, he will have a good chance to be called up next year if the shortstop position needs filled.  He will have to battle with D’arnaud at both levels (AAA and MLB) for a spot and playing time.  Defensively, he is capable of playing short, but he has also played a lot of second in the past.

OFP: 48 (Bench/Below-Average Regular)

20.) Gorkys Hernandez--CF--24:  The best tool that Hernandez possesses, other than his first name, is his fielding ability.  He is possibly the best defender in the Pirates system, and one of the best in all of minor league baseball.  This alone will allow him to reach the majors, at least as a 4th outfielder that can hit for a decent average.  He has good speed, once stealing 54 bases in low-A, but hasn’t stolen more than 21 in a season since.  His worst tool is his power, as he only hit one HR in 2011, and only hit two the previous year.  This may limit his potential to be an average hitter, but his fielding should give him a chance with the Pirates or another team in the future.  (I say “another team” because the Pirates have their outfield set for next year with Presley, McCutchen, and Tabata, and Marte is should be up next year as well.  This makes Hernandez expendable in trades.)

OFP: 48 (Bench/Below-Average Regular)

19.) Rudy Owens--LHP--23:  Owens jumped onto the prospect scene very quickly, but now seems to be fading in many fans’ eyes just as fast.  He had a breakout year in 2009 with a 2.10 ERA between low and high-A, and he followed that with another great year in AA in 2010, with a 2.46 ERA.  With these stats, he was awarded the Minor League Pitcher of the Year for the Pirates in both seasons.  A major reason why he was performing so well was his pinpoint control.  He had a combined K/BB ratio of 6.125/1 between 2009-2010, only to see that fall to 2.22/1 this year.  That is the main reason of his disappointing year, which resulted in a 5.05 ERA in Indianapolis.  A lot of the Pirates’ fan base expected Owens to come up mid-season and help anchor the rotation.  Instead, he stayed in AAA and continued to struggle.  If he discovers his control and strikeout pitch again, he can help the MLB rotation next year.

OFP: 51 (Bottom of Rotation Starter/Solid Reliever)

Top 30 Prospects: #24-22

24.) Brock Holt--2B/SS--23:  Holt was on the verge of a breakout season (he still had a solid debut in 2009) in 2010 with Bradenton before he went down with a season ending injury.  Before the injury, he was hitting an outstanding .351 with an .848 OPS in 194 at bats.  This was coming after he skipped over low-A and only had a half season with State College following his selection in the 9th round of the draft.  He followed his great stint in Bradenton with his first full season as a pro, posting a good average (.288) at Altoona, but no power.  Holt had 30 doubles, but that is pretty much the only power he will ever display.  Most of his season was spent playing second base, but he still got some time at short.  It is probable that his only future in the majors will be as a second baseman because of his lack of arm strength and range, which could be a problem considering Neil Walker may be in Pittsburgh for a long time.  Holt should start next season in Indianapolis, with a slight chance of getting a call-up as a utility player.

OFP: 48 (Bench/Below Average Regular)

23.) Zack Dodson--LHP--20:  Dodson was the 4th round pick in the 2009 draft, another pitcher prospect out of high school.  He is listed at 6’2”, but we have met him and he seemed considerably shorter, but he can still throw his fastball in the 90-93 MPH range, and there’s a chance he can add some velocity moving forward.  He has a pretty good curve but his control has gotten him into problems in the past.  During the 2010 season, his BB/9 was at 4.2, which is way too high, but he saw that number improve to 2.1 this year.  Along with his improved walk totals, Dodson also had a spectacular year at West Virginia.  He had a 2.56 ERA, but was only able to make 13 starts due to a hand injury.  He will start next season in the Bradenton rotation.

OFP: 49 (Back of Rotation/Middle Reliever)

22.) Jose Osuna--OF/1B--18:  The Pirates have a good amount of talented young players coming from the Gulf Coast League (Rookie League, mainly for players drafted out of high school and players from the Dominican and Venezuelan Summer Leagues), and Jose Osuna headlines that list.  He is very young, but has great plate discipline, as his strikeouts barely exceeded his walks.  Osuna has also displayed good power, leading the VSL in home runs as a 17 year-old in 2010, and hitting with a .511 slugging percentage in the GCL this season.  He also raised his average by 80 points this year as he moved up a level, and this helped earn him the #5 ranking in Baseball America’s top prospects for the GCL.  Osuna could start next season in State College or West Virginia, but it is more likely he starts in West Virginia so the organization can see how he adjusts to full season ball.

OFP: 52 (Solid, Everyday Regular)

Top 30 Prospects: #27-25

Written By: Michael Mawhinney, Editied By: Brian Hannon

Continuing with our prospect countdown, here are three position players with lots of untapped potential:

27.) Mel Rojas Jr.--CF--21:  When it comes to players like Rojas, his prospect status is based purely on his talent, not on his stats.  He has not put up strong numbers to this point, with a .246/.312./.335 line for Low-A West Virginia this year.  That’s a .646 OPS, not very impressive for a player with his talent at such a low level.  However, when he was drafted just last year out of Junior College, some scouts said that he could develop into a five tool player.  He has good speed and has showed he can play center field with a good arm, but his hitting has not lived up to expectations.  He started to turn things around at the end of this season, so that should earn him a promotion to Bradenton next year.  He is too raw to project what he could in the majors, but has enough potential and talent to take him to that level.

OFP: 50 (Borderline Solid, Everyday Starter)

26.) Harold Ramirez--CF--16:  Ramirez was the top Latin American prospect the Pirates signed this year, giving him a signing bonus of $1.05 M out of Colombia.  He was rated as the 15th best Latin American prospect by Baseball America, and is said to have plus-plus speed and a good feel for hitting.  Ramirez is all about potential so far, as he has not been able to play yet for any of the Pirates’ affiliates.  Expect him to be the starting centerfielder for the Dominican Summer League team next season.

OFP: 50 (Borderline Solid, Everyday Starter)

25.) Andrew Lambo--RF--23:  Lambo will not show up on a lot of people’s top prospects lists, but I still feel like he has a good deal of potential.  It was just two years ago in 2009 when he entered the year as the Dodgers’ #1 prospect, and Baseball America had him as the #49 prospect overall.  Since then, he has struggled at the plate, and was demoted from AAA to AA this year.  Lambo has also had to deal with a 50 game suspension in 2010 because of illegal drug use.  Despite all this, and early struggles after being sent down to AA, he began to pick things up at the end of the season.  His numbers ended up being decent for Altoona, posting a .782 OPS.  He should get a second crack at AAA next year, and his upside could carry him into the majors.  Right field has been his main position, but with the outfield looking set for Pittsburgh in the future, it is likely that he will get time at first base.  Lambo could be a dark horse prospect, and could very well have a .280 average with 25 home runs in the majors on a consistent basis if he ever reaches his potential.

OFP: 52 (Solid, Everyday Regular)

Top 30 Prospects: #30-28

This is the top 30 prospects that Michael Mawhinney has compiled for Bloggin Buccos along with my edits.  The Pirates have added a good deal of top notch players that could be stars in the majors one day, which should give them a top 10 minor league system overall, possibly even entering the top 5.  The top and middle of the list was relatively easy to make, but as I got into the 20’s, I realized that there were around 30 players that could make a case for the remaining spots.  I mainly looked at the upside and talent of the players, even if they didn’t have good numbers (example: Mel Rojas Jr.), but there were just some players that you could not ignore because of performance (example: Ramon Cabrera).  I also looked at how much they have proven themselves as prospects. Players were ranked based on their OFP (Overall Future Potential) on the 20-80 scouting scale, with 50 being an average big leaguer.  This is our first top prospects list, so hopefully we can get a good start (unlike the Pirates’ pitching staff in August).  Special thanks to Pirates Prospects and Baseball-Reference for supplying Michael with stats and insight.

Just for Clarification: AAA--Indianapolis, AA--Altoona, High-A--Bradenton, Low-A--West Virgina, Short Season--State College, Gulf Coast League (Rookie League)
           
30.) Ramon Cabrera--C--21:  Cabrera is a border-line prospect, but I felt like he needed to be added to this list.  He had an amazing year with Bradenton this season, hitting for a .343/.410/.471 line.  He also struck out at a very low rate, and actually walked more than he was fanned.  But, at only 5’7”, he will face some difficulty down the road.  He is decent defensively behind the plate, but his arm is below average, as he only threw out 13% of base stealers, a number that needs improvement if he wants to be taken seriously as a catching prospect.  The argument could be made, however, that this is not a concern because Pirates minor league pitchers are very poor at holding runners on because they are taught to focus solely on pitching.  The Pirates may have a problem next year in Altoona, because Cabrera, teammate Carlos Paulino (.299/.351/.439), and Tony Sanchez all may be at that level.  I imagine Paulino will stay in Bradenton, and Cabrera and Sanchez will split time, with Cabrera also playing a good amount of games as the DH.  If Cabrera can have anywhere near a similar season as he had this year in AA, he can possibly be a top 15 prospect in the organization.

OFP: 44 (Backup Catcher)

29.) Quincy Latimore--LF--22:  Latimore makes this list because he possesses something that most players in the Pirates’ system don’t: power.  That is pretty much all you can say about Latimore, as he has failed to impress with his average, speed, and fielding.  He strikes out a little too much, in about 27% of his plate appearances, but that is expected with a power hitter.  But I would’ve like to see more than 15 HR’s from him this year in AA, if power is still the only tool he is showing.  If everything goes well for him, he can be a 20-30 HR guy in the majors, but expect a .220-.230 average.  I expect him to start the 2012 season in Altoona again.

OFP: 42 (Bench/Below Average Regular)


28.) Brooks Pounders--RHP--20:  Pounders was the 2nd round pick in 2009, part of a draft class filled with high school pitching prospects.  He is not as flashy as more recent second round picks like Stetson Allie and Josh Bell, but is still a decent prospect.   Pounders is built big at 6’4” and 270 lbs, but he is not a flamethrower.  His fastball was hitting 90-92 out of the West Virginia bullpen this year, where he spent almost the entire year, only starting once.  His strikeout rate this year was very good, at 9.8 per 9 innings, and he has above average control of his pitches.  If I were the Pirates, I would keep him at West Virginia next year and give him an opportunity to be in the starting rotation.

OFP: 49 (Back of Rotation Starter/Middle Reliever)