Is It Time for Starling Marte to be Called Up?

At the beginning of the season, I wrote a post about when Starling Marte should be called up, that can be found here.  In that article, I said that there were two factors that could affect Marte's promotion to the majors.  The first factor was how Marte performed.  If he continued to hit like he did in AA, then Marte deserved to be called up sometime in June.  The second factor was how Presley and Tabata performed.  If they struggled and Marte was performing well, then it would increase the likelihood that Marte would be brought up to the majors.  To this point, Marte has performed well at AAA, although not up to some of the expectations fans had for him coming into the season.  His season line coming into July 1st is at .284/.343/.483, with an OPS of .826, eight homers, 47 RBI, and 16 stolen bases.  Those numbers have been increased since mid-June because of a .419 average and 1.259 OPS in his last ten games.  With Presley and Tabata both struggling mightily in the majors, more and more fans are starting to call for the Pirates to call up the top hitting prospect and number four prospect in the system.  But, is it time for Starling Marte to be called up?
Marte has been inconsistent with his offensive performance this season, going on streaks where he is hitting the ball very well, like the hot streak he is currently on, but then he goes cold and his average falls back to around .260-.270.  His OPS for each month has been: April-.830, May-.653, June-.944.  If he can hit like he did in April or June for another month, there's a good chance that he will get the call by the end of July.  But, there are some questions that could affect the decision on whether or not to call up Marte.  These questions are: 1) Are they rushing him?, 2) How will Presley and Tabata be doing by the end of July?, 3)  Will they trade for another hitter? , 4) Will the Pirates be in contention by the end of July?

1.) Would the Pirates be rushing Marte to the majors?
To answer this question, I will look at two players currently playing for the Pirates, one that was rushed, and one where the Pirates were patient with his development.  The player that was rushed is Pedro Alvarez.  Alvarez had only 242 at bats for AAA Indianapolis before he was called up to the majors in 2010.  He is a different case than Marte because he was drafted as a college hitter, but its still worthwhile to look at his situation.  In those 242 at bats, Pedro had a line of .277/.363/.533, with an .896 OPS, 13 homers, and 53 RBI.  As the #8 prospect in baseball at the time according to Baseball America, it seemed like the right time to call him up.  But, he was striking out at an alarming rate of 28.1%.  Prospects that strikeout at high rates in the minors will mostly continue that into the majors, which in a lot of cases will lead to initial struggles in the majors.  So far in the majors, Alvarez has struck out in 34.4% of his at bats.  It most likely would have benefited Alvarez to stay in the minors for a little longer to work on his discipline and to better recognize breaking pitches.  Currently, Marte has a 23.0% strikeout rate, and has been known to chase pitches out of the zone and struggle with breaking pitches as well, and this probably would not improve in the majors.  With the way Alvarez struggled in his first few years in the majors, it looks like he was unnecessarily rushed to the Pirates, and should have had a little more time in the minors.  Since Marte is struggling with some of the same things that Alvarez struggled with in AAA, it looks like Marte could use some more time in AAA.
Now let's look at the player the Pirates had patience with: Andrew McCutchen.  McCutchen is the star of the Pirates, and could be considered one of the best all-around players in the MLB.  McCutchen played parts of three seasons in AAA, with a total of 780 at bats.  Cutch never had problems with strikeouts in AAA, but he wasn't hitting for power in his first full season there and he could have used some work on his base running, so the Pirates kept him down so he could work on his struggles.  This approach seemed to work out, as he has now become one of the best players in the majors.
The last thing the Pirates want to do with top prospect Starling Marte is rush him to the majors.  His long term upside is too high for him to be rushed, and if he was called up right now, it would be too soon.  If he can show consistency at the plate through July, shows a better understanding of the strike zone, and can recognize breaking balls better, there would be a good argument that he was not getting rushed.

 2) How will Presley and Tabata be doing by the end of July?
Presley and Tabata were supposed to be good leadoff options for the Pirates this year, but neither has posted an OBP of over .300, with Presley's at .272 and Tabata's at .296.  But, a lot could change over the next month.  This may not matter much, but Presley just hit a triple as I was writing this question.   Tabata followed that up with a weak grounder to the second baseman, so there's that.  But, as we've seen with players like Marte and Alvarez, players can go on streaks where they are killing the ball, and fans start to support them more.  Presley or Tabata, or maybe both of them, could go on a hot streak where they would hit over .300 and drastically improve their season stats.  If both of them did this and Marte stayed around his current line of .284/.343/.483, I bet there would be a lot less calls by fans for Marte to be called up.  But, with the way Presley and Tabata have been hitting this year, especially Tabata, this would be very unlikely to happen.  Manager Clint Hurdle has recently stated that Jose may be near a demotion to AAA, and it would make sense for Marte to be called up to take his spot, especially without a better option to fill in the void in the outfield.  The Pirates will probably give Tabata at least a couple more weeks to see how he responds to Hurdle's challenge, and if he doesn't improve, we could be seeing a Tabata-Marte switch.  For this to happen, however, Marte would need to prove to management that he is ready for the majors, as well.


3) Will they trade for another hitter?
It has been made well known that the Pirates are looking to add offense via the trade market.  One player the Pirates have been linked to is Chase Headley, who has experience in left field in his career.  If the Pirates acquired an outfielder, this would obviously take away a spot that Marte could be called up to fill.  Acquiring an outfielder would lessen the need for Marte to be called up, especially if Presley or Tabata really heat up at the plate.  If the Pirates are still contending by the end of July, it is very likely they will be looking to add an offensive upgrade in the outfield.  This leads to the next question...

4) Will the Pirates be in contention by the end of July?
If the Pirates are in contention by the end of July, the likelihood of Marte being promoted would most likely increase.  It would increase because the Pirates could use a player of his caliber to help in a playoff race.  The Pirates will need to call up Marte before September if they wanted to use him in the playoffs, and calling him up before August would give him more time to adjust to major league pitching and get him more ready for the playoffs.  Again, Marte would still need to prove to management that he is ready to be promoted to the bigs.
If the Pirates are not in contention by the end of July and they have another collapse like they did last year, then there is really no point to call him up this late in the season.  The extra month and a half would give him a lot of time to work on his struggles with the strike zone and recognizing breaking pitches at a level that he can gain valuable experience.  Using the Andrew McCutchen situation again as an example, the Pirates did not call Cutch up just to improve a team that had no chance of contention in the short term.  They kept him down in AAA where he could work on any struggles that he needed to.
It is likely that the Pirates will still be in contention by the end of July with the way the team has been playing this year, but that does not necessarily mean that Marte will be called up.  Marte could go on a cold streak, Presley or Tabata could heat up, and the team could also acquire in outfielder in a trade, so there is no guarantee that Marte will get the call if the team is in contention.

With all these questions considered, I would say it is more likely that we see Marte in Pittsburgh rather than Indianapolis by the end of the season.  Right now, the team would be rushing Marte if he was promoted, but an extra month in AAA could do a lot of good for Marte.  He has been working on recognizing breaking balls as of late, and has been improving on that.  Management would like to see Marte show more consistency at the plate before they give him the call, and if he continues the great success he had in June, it will be hard to keep him down in AAA.  If Marte stays around where he is right now offensively and Presley and Tabata continue to get on a base at a low rate, then Marte's chances of a promotion are greatly increased, especially if the team is still in contention.
Marte has a lot of offensive upside and would already be the best outfield defender the Pirates have in the majors, but he is not quite ready to be promoted yet.  He is very close, though, and all it may take is one more month of consistent hitting at the AAA level.

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.

When Should Starling Marte Be Called Up?

In our rankings last September, Starling Marte was the #3 prospect in the Pirates’ organization.  He was coming off a year where he hit for a .332 average and an .870 OPS, along with 12 home runs and 24 stolen bases.  He followed his stellar 2011 campaign with a great offensive showing early in spring training this year with the major league club, hitting .520 with a 1.440 OPS and three home runs in 25 at bats.  This had many fans calling for the team to keep Marte on the major league roster to start the season, but management made the right decision by sending him to AAA Indianapolis to work on plate patience and to get time at the corner outfield positions, where he will most likely play as long as Andrew McCutchen is in center for the Pirates.  But having Marte one step away from the majors in AAA leads to the question, when will he get the call?
Marte’s arrival in the majors really depends on a couple factors.  Obviously, one of them is how he is performing in AAA.  If he continues to hit like he has, then it will be very difficult for the Pirates to keep him down.  The other factor in his call up will be how Alex Presley and Jose Tabata perform.  If one of these two struggle, then that will lead to a higher possibility of Marte getting the call.  Likewise, if both of these players exceed expectations, then that will lower the chances of Marte having a spot on the major league roster.  If Marte doesn’t respond well to the more advanced AAA pitching, it will not matter how Presley and Tabata hit, and will show that Marte needs more time in the minors.
As mentioned in the first paragraph, Marte needs to work on his plate patience and get more experience in left and/or right field before he can be called up to the majors.  In his minor league career leading up to this season, he has struck out in 21.6% of his at-bats.  That’s not too bad, and he even lowered his strikeout rate to 18.7% in 2011.  However, he has a career walk rate of 4.7%, and 3.8% in 2011.  That is bad.  Obviously, this hasn’t really affected his performance too much in the minors, but if he continues this, major league pitchers will exploit this weakness.  Marte is an aggressive hitter, many times swinging at pitches that are not in the strike zone.  But, if he would allow these pitches to go buy as balls, he would get more walks and see better pitches to hit later in the count.  Not only would this raise his on base percentage, it could also raise his average because of the more hittable pitches.  
Marte is a very good defensive centerfielder, probably better than McCutchen.  However, he has very little experience at the corner outfield positions in the higher levels, and in spring training, he looked a little lost at those spots.  For the Pirates, Marte will most likely play left field, where he has only played seven times in the minors.  Being a good fielder, this shouldn’t take long for Marte to adjust to, but it is better to get him used to the position in the minors, rather than with the major league club.  PNC Park has a very large left field, so it will be good having a player with Marte’s speed and defense to man that position.
So, when should Marte get called up?  The earliest time I could see the Pirates calling up Marte is early to mid June.  This will give the team enough time to evaluate his performance at AAA, and to see how Presley and Tabata handle themselves at the majors.  If Marte is hitting .300-.315 or better with an OPS of over .820 and his strikeout and walk numbers improve, then he should get serious consideration by the beginning of July.  Even if Presley and Tabata are hitting well, you can’t ignore Marte’s talent and potential impact on the team, and it really wouldn’t benefit him to stay in AAA.  In the majors, Marte could be an .300+ hitter with 15-20 homers a year, with great speed and great defense.  The Pirates could have a very good duo with Marte and McCutchen, and hopefully we will get a taste of what that is like at some point this summer.