The Pirates Should Trade for Justin Upton

Justin Upton trade rumors have been swirling around since June, and the Pirates were one of the teams said to have interest in Upton before the deadline.  However, the Diamondback's asking price was too high for any team, and Upton stayed in Arizona for the remainder of the season.  Now in January, the Diamondbacks are still actively seeking for a trade partner for the 25 year-old outfielder.  Upton has a no trade clause in his contract, with the Mariners, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Cubs as the four teams he can veto a trade.  Recently, Upton rejected an agreed upon trade to the Mariners that would have sent top prospects Nick Franklin (SS) and Taijuan Walker (RHP), along with young relievers Charlie Furbush and Stephen Pryor.  This is said to be the first trade offer that the Diamondbacks actually accepted.  Also, the Texas Rangers, who were a major player for Justin Upton, are said to have "backed off" of a potential Upton deal.

The accepted Mariners offer to the Diamondbacks shows what it would take to land Upton.  Nick Franklin is a good shortstop prospect who hit very well at AA this year before a promotion to AAA, where he struggled.  He is an average defender at short, but may be better suited for second base long term.  Taijuan Walker was one of the best pitching prospects in the game coming into 2012, but struggled with a 4.69 ERA in his first season at AA as a 19 year old.  Still, he has a mid to high 90's fastball with a  great curve and a developing changup.  With this three pitch mix, he is still considered one of the best pitching prospects in the minors.  Furbush and Pryor are young relievers who get a lot of strikeouts, with Furbush having a good year in the MLB as a 26 year old, and Pryor getting a taste of the majors as a 22 year-old.

This got me thinking, what would be a similar package of prospects in the Pirates system?  Alen Hanson seems to be a similar prospect to Nick Franklin, a shortstop who has shown the ability to hit but has been inconsistent on defense.  Jameson Taillon is a very close comparison to Taijuan Walker, with both having number one starter upside with a mid to high-90's fastballs, great curveballs, and improving changeups.  I can think of three relievers that could compare to Furbush and Pryor, with those pitchers being Bryan Morris, Victor Black, and Duke Welker.

With Alen Hanson and Jameson Taillon being very similar to Franklin and Walker, the Pirates may be able to pull off a trade for Justin Upton with a package of Hanson, Taillon, and two of that relievers group, probably Morris and Black.  If this trade were to be accepted, should the Pirates do it?

Justin Upton is one of the top young players in the game with great potential that he put on display in the 2011 season, where he finished fourth in the MVP voting as a 23 year old.  He would be a great addition to any team in the majors, with three more years of team control.  The Diamondbacks have a strained relationship with Upton and an excess of outfielders, so a deal seems likely to occur.  The only problem here from a player standpoint with the Pirates is that the Pirates also have an excess of outfielders, with this proposed trade causing a jam with Marte and Snider.  But, bringing in Upton could give the Pirates a potentially dangerous middle of the lineup, with Andrew McCutchen, Upton, Garrett Jones, and an improving Pedro Alvarez.  That's four players who could approach the 30 homer mark, and that is a very rare feat for any lineup.  If the opportunity for a trade comes, the Pirates have to pounce on it.  The offense has not been good for the Pirates, especially over the past two seasons, and Upton can be a major threat at the plate that could turn around the team's offensive woes.  With Gerrit Cole most likely making his major league debut and joining what could already be a solid rotation, an addition of Upton to the lineup could make the Pirates playoff contenders in 2013.  Without Upton's impact bat, it is doubtful the Pirates make a playoff run in 2013.

The crowded outfield that would ensue from an Upton trade could pose a problem, but should not stop a deal from happening.  The Pirates could still go with Marte in left, McCutchen in center, and Upton in right, with Travis Snider as a good bench option and filling in case of injuries or if Marte struggles at the plate.  A Marte-McCutchen-Upton outfield could potentially give the Pirates one of the best outfields in all of baseball, especially if Marte lives up to his potential, and McCutchen and Upton put up numbers similar to their 2012 and 2011 seasons, respectively.  But, if the Pirates really don't like the idea of having a crowded outfield (remember this would also affect Jerry Sands, Jose Tabata, and Alex Presley), a third team could be added to a potential deal.  Two teams that I can see as fits would be the Mariners and the Rangers, as they were both looking to acquire Upton, and therefore could be looking for outfield help.

Pirates-Diamondbacks-Mariners Trade:
PIT GETS; Justin Upton
ARI GETS: Jameson Taillon, Nick Franklin, Victor Black
SEA GETS: Starling Marte, Jordy Mercer

In this trade the Pirates would be giving up Taillon, Black, Marte, and Mercer.  The real trade-off here compared to a two team deal with the Pirates and Mariners is trading Marte instead of Hanson.  Considering they would be getting a three years of a proven MLB player in Upton, the Pirates may be willing to lose Marte and keep Alen Hanson in the system.  However, the Mariners may not be willing to part with Franklin for just Starling Marte and Jordy Mercer, so more may have to be added to this deal.  If that is the case, the Pirates would be better served to do a two team deal.

Pirates-Diamondbacks-Rangers Trade:
PIT GETS: Justin Upton, Jorge Alfaro, Ronald Guzman
ARI GETS: Jameson Taillon, Mike Olt, Victor Black
TEX GETS: Starling Marte, Garrett Jones, Justin Wilson

Here the Pirates would be giving up more, with Taillon, Black, Marte, Jones, and Wilson leaving.  But, they would also be receiving a little more with Texas prospects Jorge Alfaro and Ronald Guzman coming in the deal.  Alfaro (19) and Guzman (18) are both very young players that are natural hitters.  Alfaro is an athletic catcher who has a good arm behind the plate, with the chance to be a good average hitter with good power. Guzman, who received a high bonus after signing out of the Dominican Republic as a 16 year old, is a tall outfielder who can flat out hit, with the potential for plus power down the road as a left fielder or first baseman.  After acquiring Didi Gregorius from the Reds in the Trevor Bauer deal, the Diamondbacks may look for a future third baseman, a spot that the Rangers' Mike Olt could definitely fill.  Giving up Olt would cause a possible infield need for the Rangers at first base, a spot that would be filled by Garrett Jones in this deal.  The question in this trade is whether the Rangers would be willing to give up Olt and the upside of both Alfaro and Guzman for Marte, Jones, and Wilson, but remember Marte is still under team control for the same amount of time that Olt is.  If I were the Pirates, I would definitely make this deal, it's really just a question of if the Rangers would, as there is a good chance the Diamondbacks would accept this as well.

Justin Upton is has game-changing talent, and could be an MVP candidate for years to come.  At 25 years old, opportunities to acquire this young talent are extremely rare, and when they present themselves, teams like the Pirates should take advantage.  The Pirates would have to give up a lot in any deal, but it would be worth it to have Upton for at least the next three years.  An effect of any Upton trade for the Pirates would be that there would not sign starting pitcher Francisco Liriano, as they would use his potential salary to cover Upton's $9.75 million salary in 2013.  Upton is an elite talent that would benefit any team, and putting his bat in the 2013 Pirates lineup would give them a legitimate chance at the playoffs this year, and in the future.

Here are the three trade ideas from the Pirates' standpoint:

Pirates-Diamondbacks Trade:
PIRATES GET; Justin Upton
PIRATES GIVE: Jameson Taillon, Alen Hanson, Bryan Morris, Victor Black

Pirates-Diamondbacks-Mariners Trade:
PIRATES GET: Justin Upton
PIRATES GIVE: Jameson Taillon, Starling Marte, Victor Black, Jordy Mercer

Pirates-Diamondbacks-Rangers Trade:
PIRATES GET: Justin Upton, Jorge Alfaro, Ronald Guzman
PIRATES GIVE: Jameson Taillon, Starling Marte, Garrett Jones, Victor Black, Justin Wilson

The two team deal with the Pirates and Diamondbacks would be the most likely deal here, and the PIT-ARI-TEX deal would probably be the best for the Pirates.  Which trade would you do?

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.  I would love to hear any other trade ideas you may have, or if you want to make changes/improvements to my ideas.

Potential 2013 Mid-Season Lineup and Rotation With Upton

LINEUP (based on a PIT-ARI deal)
1.) Marte-LF
2.) Walker-2B
3.) McCutchen-CF
4.) Upton-RF
5.) Alvarez-3B
6.) Jones-1B
7.) Martin-C
8.) Barmes-SS

ROTATION
Burnett
McDonald
Rodriguez
Cole
McPherson/Locke

I like the looks of that lineup.

Is It Time for Starling Marte to be Called Up?

At the beginning of the season, I wrote a post about when Starling Marte should be called up, that can be found here.  In that article, I said that there were two factors that could affect Marte's promotion to the majors.  The first factor was how Marte performed.  If he continued to hit like he did in AA, then Marte deserved to be called up sometime in June.  The second factor was how Presley and Tabata performed.  If they struggled and Marte was performing well, then it would increase the likelihood that Marte would be brought up to the majors.  To this point, Marte has performed well at AAA, although not up to some of the expectations fans had for him coming into the season.  His season line coming into July 1st is at .284/.343/.483, with an OPS of .826, eight homers, 47 RBI, and 16 stolen bases.  Those numbers have been increased since mid-June because of a .419 average and 1.259 OPS in his last ten games.  With Presley and Tabata both struggling mightily in the majors, more and more fans are starting to call for the Pirates to call up the top hitting prospect and number four prospect in the system.  But, is it time for Starling Marte to be called up?
Marte has been inconsistent with his offensive performance this season, going on streaks where he is hitting the ball very well, like the hot streak he is currently on, but then he goes cold and his average falls back to around .260-.270.  His OPS for each month has been: April-.830, May-.653, June-.944.  If he can hit like he did in April or June for another month, there's a good chance that he will get the call by the end of July.  But, there are some questions that could affect the decision on whether or not to call up Marte.  These questions are: 1) Are they rushing him?, 2) How will Presley and Tabata be doing by the end of July?, 3)  Will they trade for another hitter? , 4) Will the Pirates be in contention by the end of July?

1.) Would the Pirates be rushing Marte to the majors?
To answer this question, I will look at two players currently playing for the Pirates, one that was rushed, and one where the Pirates were patient with his development.  The player that was rushed is Pedro Alvarez.  Alvarez had only 242 at bats for AAA Indianapolis before he was called up to the majors in 2010.  He is a different case than Marte because he was drafted as a college hitter, but its still worthwhile to look at his situation.  In those 242 at bats, Pedro had a line of .277/.363/.533, with an .896 OPS, 13 homers, and 53 RBI.  As the #8 prospect in baseball at the time according to Baseball America, it seemed like the right time to call him up.  But, he was striking out at an alarming rate of 28.1%.  Prospects that strikeout at high rates in the minors will mostly continue that into the majors, which in a lot of cases will lead to initial struggles in the majors.  So far in the majors, Alvarez has struck out in 34.4% of his at bats.  It most likely would have benefited Alvarez to stay in the minors for a little longer to work on his discipline and to better recognize breaking pitches.  Currently, Marte has a 23.0% strikeout rate, and has been known to chase pitches out of the zone and struggle with breaking pitches as well, and this probably would not improve in the majors.  With the way Alvarez struggled in his first few years in the majors, it looks like he was unnecessarily rushed to the Pirates, and should have had a little more time in the minors.  Since Marte is struggling with some of the same things that Alvarez struggled with in AAA, it looks like Marte could use some more time in AAA.
Now let's look at the player the Pirates had patience with: Andrew McCutchen.  McCutchen is the star of the Pirates, and could be considered one of the best all-around players in the MLB.  McCutchen played parts of three seasons in AAA, with a total of 780 at bats.  Cutch never had problems with strikeouts in AAA, but he wasn't hitting for power in his first full season there and he could have used some work on his base running, so the Pirates kept him down so he could work on his struggles.  This approach seemed to work out, as he has now become one of the best players in the majors.
The last thing the Pirates want to do with top prospect Starling Marte is rush him to the majors.  His long term upside is too high for him to be rushed, and if he was called up right now, it would be too soon.  If he can show consistency at the plate through July, shows a better understanding of the strike zone, and can recognize breaking balls better, there would be a good argument that he was not getting rushed.

 2) How will Presley and Tabata be doing by the end of July?
Presley and Tabata were supposed to be good leadoff options for the Pirates this year, but neither has posted an OBP of over .300, with Presley's at .272 and Tabata's at .296.  But, a lot could change over the next month.  This may not matter much, but Presley just hit a triple as I was writing this question.   Tabata followed that up with a weak grounder to the second baseman, so there's that.  But, as we've seen with players like Marte and Alvarez, players can go on streaks where they are killing the ball, and fans start to support them more.  Presley or Tabata, or maybe both of them, could go on a hot streak where they would hit over .300 and drastically improve their season stats.  If both of them did this and Marte stayed around his current line of .284/.343/.483, I bet there would be a lot less calls by fans for Marte to be called up.  But, with the way Presley and Tabata have been hitting this year, especially Tabata, this would be very unlikely to happen.  Manager Clint Hurdle has recently stated that Jose may be near a demotion to AAA, and it would make sense for Marte to be called up to take his spot, especially without a better option to fill in the void in the outfield.  The Pirates will probably give Tabata at least a couple more weeks to see how he responds to Hurdle's challenge, and if he doesn't improve, we could be seeing a Tabata-Marte switch.  For this to happen, however, Marte would need to prove to management that he is ready for the majors, as well.


3) Will they trade for another hitter?
It has been made well known that the Pirates are looking to add offense via the trade market.  One player the Pirates have been linked to is Chase Headley, who has experience in left field in his career.  If the Pirates acquired an outfielder, this would obviously take away a spot that Marte could be called up to fill.  Acquiring an outfielder would lessen the need for Marte to be called up, especially if Presley or Tabata really heat up at the plate.  If the Pirates are still contending by the end of July, it is very likely they will be looking to add an offensive upgrade in the outfield.  This leads to the next question...

4) Will the Pirates be in contention by the end of July?
If the Pirates are in contention by the end of July, the likelihood of Marte being promoted would most likely increase.  It would increase because the Pirates could use a player of his caliber to help in a playoff race.  The Pirates will need to call up Marte before September if they wanted to use him in the playoffs, and calling him up before August would give him more time to adjust to major league pitching and get him more ready for the playoffs.  Again, Marte would still need to prove to management that he is ready to be promoted to the bigs.
If the Pirates are not in contention by the end of July and they have another collapse like they did last year, then there is really no point to call him up this late in the season.  The extra month and a half would give him a lot of time to work on his struggles with the strike zone and recognizing breaking pitches at a level that he can gain valuable experience.  Using the Andrew McCutchen situation again as an example, the Pirates did not call Cutch up just to improve a team that had no chance of contention in the short term.  They kept him down in AAA where he could work on any struggles that he needed to.
It is likely that the Pirates will still be in contention by the end of July with the way the team has been playing this year, but that does not necessarily mean that Marte will be called up.  Marte could go on a cold streak, Presley or Tabata could heat up, and the team could also acquire in outfielder in a trade, so there is no guarantee that Marte will get the call if the team is in contention.

With all these questions considered, I would say it is more likely that we see Marte in Pittsburgh rather than Indianapolis by the end of the season.  Right now, the team would be rushing Marte if he was promoted, but an extra month in AAA could do a lot of good for Marte.  He has been working on recognizing breaking balls as of late, and has been improving on that.  Management would like to see Marte show more consistency at the plate before they give him the call, and if he continues the great success he had in June, it will be hard to keep him down in AAA.  If Marte stays around where he is right now offensively and Presley and Tabata continue to get on a base at a low rate, then Marte's chances of a promotion are greatly increased, especially if the team is still in contention.
Marte has a lot of offensive upside and would already be the best outfield defender the Pirates have in the majors, but he is not quite ready to be promoted yet.  He is very close, though, and all it may take is one more month of consistent hitting at the AAA level.

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.

When Should Starling Marte Be Called Up?

In our rankings last September, Starling Marte was the #3 prospect in the Pirates’ organization.  He was coming off a year where he hit for a .332 average and an .870 OPS, along with 12 home runs and 24 stolen bases.  He followed his stellar 2011 campaign with a great offensive showing early in spring training this year with the major league club, hitting .520 with a 1.440 OPS and three home runs in 25 at bats.  This had many fans calling for the team to keep Marte on the major league roster to start the season, but management made the right decision by sending him to AAA Indianapolis to work on plate patience and to get time at the corner outfield positions, where he will most likely play as long as Andrew McCutchen is in center for the Pirates.  But having Marte one step away from the majors in AAA leads to the question, when will he get the call?
Marte’s arrival in the majors really depends on a couple factors.  Obviously, one of them is how he is performing in AAA.  If he continues to hit like he has, then it will be very difficult for the Pirates to keep him down.  The other factor in his call up will be how Alex Presley and Jose Tabata perform.  If one of these two struggle, then that will lead to a higher possibility of Marte getting the call.  Likewise, if both of these players exceed expectations, then that will lower the chances of Marte having a spot on the major league roster.  If Marte doesn’t respond well to the more advanced AAA pitching, it will not matter how Presley and Tabata hit, and will show that Marte needs more time in the minors.
As mentioned in the first paragraph, Marte needs to work on his plate patience and get more experience in left and/or right field before he can be called up to the majors.  In his minor league career leading up to this season, he has struck out in 21.6% of his at-bats.  That’s not too bad, and he even lowered his strikeout rate to 18.7% in 2011.  However, he has a career walk rate of 4.7%, and 3.8% in 2011.  That is bad.  Obviously, this hasn’t really affected his performance too much in the minors, but if he continues this, major league pitchers will exploit this weakness.  Marte is an aggressive hitter, many times swinging at pitches that are not in the strike zone.  But, if he would allow these pitches to go buy as balls, he would get more walks and see better pitches to hit later in the count.  Not only would this raise his on base percentage, it could also raise his average because of the more hittable pitches.  
Marte is a very good defensive centerfielder, probably better than McCutchen.  However, he has very little experience at the corner outfield positions in the higher levels, and in spring training, he looked a little lost at those spots.  For the Pirates, Marte will most likely play left field, where he has only played seven times in the minors.  Being a good fielder, this shouldn’t take long for Marte to adjust to, but it is better to get him used to the position in the minors, rather than with the major league club.  PNC Park has a very large left field, so it will be good having a player with Marte’s speed and defense to man that position.
So, when should Marte get called up?  The earliest time I could see the Pirates calling up Marte is early to mid June.  This will give the team enough time to evaluate his performance at AAA, and to see how Presley and Tabata handle themselves at the majors.  If Marte is hitting .300-.315 or better with an OPS of over .820 and his strikeout and walk numbers improve, then he should get serious consideration by the beginning of July.  Even if Presley and Tabata are hitting well, you can’t ignore Marte’s talent and potential impact on the team, and it really wouldn’t benefit him to stay in AAA.  In the majors, Marte could be an .300+ hitter with 15-20 homers a year, with great speed and great defense.  The Pirates could have a very good duo with Marte and McCutchen, and hopefully we will get a taste of what that is like at some point this summer.