The season has just started, but there is already a great deal of debate about the lineup for the first two games. Coming into spring training and even during spring training, it looked pretty certain that Garrett Jones would get the majority of playing time at first, with Gaby Sanchez getting some starts against lefties, and that Travis Snider would be the starting right fielder. However, the lineups for the first two games featured Jones in right field and Sanchez at first base. This has come as an unwelcome surprise to many fans, as Sanchez was absolutely terrible at the major league level in 2012, posting a .620 OPS in 299 at bats for the Marlins and Pirates. Snider also had his share of struggles at the major league level, with an OPS of .697 in 164 at bats. But, Snider had an OPS of 1.021 at AAA Las Vegas in 2012 while still in the Blue Jays organization.
Let's look at what both players bring to the team.
Gaby Sanchez
Sanchez is a 29 year old first baseman who had his rookie season in 2010 at the age of 26. That year he finished fourth in the rookie of the year voting after hitting for a line of .273/.341/.448, with 19 home runs, 85 RBI, and an OPS of .788. He followed that up in 2011 with a very similar line of .266/.352/.427, with 19 home runs, 78 RBI, and an OPS of .779. He made the All-Star team, but as you can see, those stats are hardly All-Star worthy. In 2012, Sanchez really struggled with the Marlins, with an OPS of .556 in 183 at bats. He spent some time in the minors and was eventually traded to the Pirates in exchange for Gorkys Hernandez and the Pirates' supplemental draft pick, which will be the 35th pick in this year's draft. Sanchez improved with the Pirates, basically becoming an average major league player with an OPS of .720 and an OPS+ of 101 (100 is average) in 116 at bats.
Sanchez had a good spring training in 2013, putting up an OPS of 1.066 in 43 at bats. Spring training stats are largely meaningless, as hitters are facing pitchers who are trying to get a feel for their pitches again, and much of the time aren't throwing their best stuff. Nonetheless, manager Clint Hurdle must have thought enough of those stats to give Sanchez the starting first base job.
Sanchez doesn't necessarily have a bad aspect to his game, but he doesn't have any impressive aspects either, and at 29 years old, doesn't have much room to improve. He can hit for a decent average and about 15-20 home runs, but those are both average to below average for an everyday first baseman who doesn't play great defense. He is a better defender than Garrett Jones, but the offensive upside is not there. If he got the chance to start for the entire season, Sanchez can be expected to hit around .260-.270 with 15-20 home runs. Not a stat line you want to see from your first baseman.
Travis Snider
Snider is a 25 year old former top prospect. He has spent most of his career in the Blue Jays organization, and was acquired for Brad Lincoln around the same time as the Gaby Sanchez acquisition last season. Snider hasn't gotten much of a chance to be an everyday player at the major league level, despite continued success at the AAA level. In his career at AAA, he has a line of .333/.412/.565, with 33 home runs, 155 RBI, and an OPS of .976 in 696 at bats. The most at bats Snider has received at the major league level was in 2010, where he had a line of .255/.304/.463 with 14 homers, 32 RBI, and an OPS of .767. That was Snider's age 22 season, and it came in the always tough AL East. Despite that impressive line, he received only 187 at bats in 2011 and 164 in 2012. It remains to be seen what Snider can do for a full season at the major league level, but there is definitely room to grow, even after two straight season of struggling.
Snider has a good deal of power potential, and although it hasn't been present at the major league level recently, it is evidenced by a .598 slugging percentage at AAA last year. Behind Alvarez and McCutchen, Snider could very well have the best power potential on the team. He also plays a decent right field, and is also more competent than Garrett Jones is at the position.
The main thing with Travis Snider is the potential he still carries with him. Back in 2009, he was rated as the #6 prospect in the minors by Baseball America. Back in November, I wrote a post titled "The Case For Travis Snider", which you can read by clicking the link. It outlines how Travis Snider needs to get the opportunity to play everyday to give him any chance of reaching his potential. That potential is a .280 hitter with 25-35 home runs, which is an All-Star caliber player for a team that could desperately use a power bat to drive in runs.
Coming into 2012, the Pirates had a former top prospect on their hands who had experienced major struggles at the major league level, after having a good half season at the level. The Pirates gave this player a full season of at bats to adjust to the league and prove himself, and that player responded by hitting 30 home runs. That player was Pedro Alvarez, and giving him a full season of at bats seems to have worked out for the Pirates. Travis Snider finds himself in a near identical position in 2013, where a full season of at-bats could really revive his major league career. After the decision to play Alvarez everyday worked out, it would only make sense to give Snider the same opportunity.
Clint Hurdle has made a lot of questionable decisions as the manager of the Pirates, but this could be the most frustrating. The only "argument" for Sanchez at this point is that he had a very good Spring Training. But what does that mean? Matt Hague had an incredible spring in 2012, but couldn't handle major league pitching. Alvarez had a terrible spring in 2012, then followed that with a breakout season. Spring stats really don't correlate with regular season results much of the time, and cannot be used in a valid argument. Basically what we are looking at in the case between Gaby Sanchez vs. Travis Snider is a player who struggled greatly last season who could at best produce average offense, or a player who struggled as well, but could become an All-Star with 30+ home runs. Personally, I'm taking the guy who could hit 30+ home runs, rather than the player who hits 20 in a best case scenario.
Snider could struggle again in 2013, or he see the same success that Pedro Alvarez saw in 2012. But, we will never know unless Snider gets the opportunity to play everyday. If he continues to sit the bench, he will not grow as a player, and will not be able to work on his struggles. The best thing the Pirates can do right now is give Snider the chance to play everyday in right field, and have Garrett Jones platoon with Sanchez at first base. You could also make an argument for a Jose Tabata-Travis Snider platoon in right as well, which I would not be against, as Tabata could use everyday at bats as well.
A lot of Pirates fans agree that Snider should be starting and have voiced their opinions. I just wish Clint Hurdle would agree with us as well.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.
Showing posts with label Garrett Jones. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Garrett Jones. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
Saturday, March 23, 2013
2013 Positional Preview: First Base
Entering the offseason before the 2012 season, there existed a lot of questions about who would be the Pirates first baseman. They finished the 2011 season with Derrek Lee as the everyday first baseman, but Lee chose not to play in 2012, despite the Pirates and a few other teams expressing interest in him. There were a few free agent options out there, including Michael Cuddyer and Carlos Pena, but the Pirates made the decision that they were best fit going into 2012 with Garrett Jones as their first baseman. This was a risky move at the time, as Jones had a history of struggles against left handed pitching and wasn't a particularly good defender at the position. However, he brought the offensive upside to the position that the Pirates needed, with decent power numbers over the past few years and a .938 OPS in 358 at bats in 2009. But, his OPS dropped to .720 in 2010 and .753 in 2011, so no one was sure what the Pirates were going to get from Jones in 2012.
The risk paid off for the Pirates in 2012, as Jones had the best year of his career, with a batting line of .274/.317/.516 with an OPS of .832 and 27 home runs. Along with Andrew McCutchen (31 HR's) and Pedro Alvarez (30 HR's), Jones was part of one of the best power trios in recent Pirates memory. Jones played below average defense, but helped to make up for that by posting the sixth best WAR on the team. Overall, however, his WAR of 1.5 is not that impressive, as a WAR of 2 is generally the base for an average regular. Still, with his OPS+ of 129, Jones was most likely at the highest value that he will ever be at, which caused a lot of trade speculation to surround him over the offseason. It is easy to see why, as a big lefty who had an .888 OPS against righties in 2012 is not easy to come by. He drew interest from teams, including the Mariners and Orioles, but ultimately the Pirates held on to Jones for the 2013 season.
Other players that spent time at first for the Pirates last year were Casey McGehee, Gaby Sanchez, and Matt Hague. McGehee received a lot of playing time, but after posting a .674 OPS in 265 at bats, he was traded to the Yankees at the trade deadline. One of the reasons the Pirates traded McGehee was because of their acquisition of Gaby Sanchez. The Pirates acquired Sanchez the same day they traded McGehee, and gave up a decent amount for the former All-Star, with Gorkys Hernandez and the Pirates' 2013 supplemental pick going to the Marlins. Sanchez will have to perform above the .720 OPS he posted for the Pirates last year to make fans more willing to part with the top 35 pick the team gave up to get Sanchez. Hague made the opening day roster after an amazing spring, but did not perform at all with a .527 OPS in 70 at bats.
Now lets take a look at the 2013 outlook at first base.
Starter: Garrett Jones
The offensive numbers that Jones put up last year have given him the spot as the first baseman who will get the majority of the playing time to start the season. The team hopes he can put up similar numbers to what he did last year, but looking at his past and factoring in that he is entering his age-32 season, that is far from a guarantee. Jones is a safer bet to hit at least .250 with around 20 home runs, but his struggles against lefties still exist, which could prove to be problematic. This will most likely open the door for Gaby Sanchez in a potential platoon role, where he should see a good amount of starts against lefty pitchers, whom Sanchez has a career .869 OPS against. If Jones and Sanchez put up numbers close to their career numbers in their respective platoon roles, the Pirates could have a formidable duo at first with possibly a .275-.280 average and 25 home runs across an entire season. But as we saw with the Garrett Jones-Matt Diaz platoon a couple years back, these situations don't always work out as you would hope.
Bench Options: Gaby Sanchez
The Pirates will generally have either Gaby Sanchez or Garrett Jones on the bench on any given day, unless Sanchez is at third or Jones is in right field. Sanchez is a great player to have on your team's bench, as he is a former All-Star who has the potential to hit 15-20 homers with everyday playing time, but you would like to see him produce a lot of offense after giving up a draft pick for him. Sanchez has had a good Spring Training so far, which could put him in the position to see a good deal of at bats once the regular season begins. Regardless, Sanchez will be a great option to pinch hit against lefties, and Jones will be a great option against righties.
Minor League Players We Could See This Year: Clint Robinson, Matt Hague, Matt Curry
Clint Robinson has put up some impressive numbers in the minors throughout his career, with an OPS of .902 in six minor league seasons. But because of certain players blocking him at the major league level with Kansas City, he hasn't gotten a chance to play in the majors. He came to the Pirates over the offseason, and has the chance to be the next Garrett Jones if the opportunity presents itself. By saying "the next Garrett Jones", I mean a player who has good minor league numbers but hasn't gotten a chance in the majors who goes on to hit well in the majors when finally given a chance. Matt Hague is probably the fourth guy on the depth chart at this point, and he doesn't really provide much offensive or defensive upside, and he will be limited to bench duty if he gets a chance with the major league club. Matt Curry is one of the top first base prospects in the upper levels (behind Alex Dickerson), and is rated the #23 prospect in the Pirates system, according to Baseball America. He has the potential to be a .280 hitter with 15-20 homers in the majors one day, but won't get much if any of an opportunity in 2013 at the major league level.
First base has the potential to be a strength for the Pirates in 2013, if both Garrett Jones and Gaby Sanchez hit to their potential in their potential platoon roles. But, if they don't hit up to their potential, a weakness will be created that will need to be addressed at either the trade deadline or in the next offseason, unless the team feels comfortable trusting Clint Robinson or Matt Curry to handle the first base duties. Another topic to consider is that if the Pirates seem to be out of playoff contention around the trade deadline and Jones is hitting well, could Jones be traded? If he puts up numbers like he did last year, he would be a great option for contenders and could bring a good return for the Pirates. That is something that the Pirates explored this past offseason, and could be an interesting story to follow throughout the year. But at this point, we can assume that the Pirates' first base production will be around .250-.260 with 20-25 home runs. That's not bad, but the Pirates would love to see a platoon between Jones and Sanchez produce even more than what Jones gave the team in 2012.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.
The risk paid off for the Pirates in 2012, as Jones had the best year of his career, with a batting line of .274/.317/.516 with an OPS of .832 and 27 home runs. Along with Andrew McCutchen (31 HR's) and Pedro Alvarez (30 HR's), Jones was part of one of the best power trios in recent Pirates memory. Jones played below average defense, but helped to make up for that by posting the sixth best WAR on the team. Overall, however, his WAR of 1.5 is not that impressive, as a WAR of 2 is generally the base for an average regular. Still, with his OPS+ of 129, Jones was most likely at the highest value that he will ever be at, which caused a lot of trade speculation to surround him over the offseason. It is easy to see why, as a big lefty who had an .888 OPS against righties in 2012 is not easy to come by. He drew interest from teams, including the Mariners and Orioles, but ultimately the Pirates held on to Jones for the 2013 season.
Other players that spent time at first for the Pirates last year were Casey McGehee, Gaby Sanchez, and Matt Hague. McGehee received a lot of playing time, but after posting a .674 OPS in 265 at bats, he was traded to the Yankees at the trade deadline. One of the reasons the Pirates traded McGehee was because of their acquisition of Gaby Sanchez. The Pirates acquired Sanchez the same day they traded McGehee, and gave up a decent amount for the former All-Star, with Gorkys Hernandez and the Pirates' 2013 supplemental pick going to the Marlins. Sanchez will have to perform above the .720 OPS he posted for the Pirates last year to make fans more willing to part with the top 35 pick the team gave up to get Sanchez. Hague made the opening day roster after an amazing spring, but did not perform at all with a .527 OPS in 70 at bats.
Now lets take a look at the 2013 outlook at first base.
Starter: Garrett Jones
The offensive numbers that Jones put up last year have given him the spot as the first baseman who will get the majority of the playing time to start the season. The team hopes he can put up similar numbers to what he did last year, but looking at his past and factoring in that he is entering his age-32 season, that is far from a guarantee. Jones is a safer bet to hit at least .250 with around 20 home runs, but his struggles against lefties still exist, which could prove to be problematic. This will most likely open the door for Gaby Sanchez in a potential platoon role, where he should see a good amount of starts against lefty pitchers, whom Sanchez has a career .869 OPS against. If Jones and Sanchez put up numbers close to their career numbers in their respective platoon roles, the Pirates could have a formidable duo at first with possibly a .275-.280 average and 25 home runs across an entire season. But as we saw with the Garrett Jones-Matt Diaz platoon a couple years back, these situations don't always work out as you would hope.
Bench Options: Gaby Sanchez
The Pirates will generally have either Gaby Sanchez or Garrett Jones on the bench on any given day, unless Sanchez is at third or Jones is in right field. Sanchez is a great player to have on your team's bench, as he is a former All-Star who has the potential to hit 15-20 homers with everyday playing time, but you would like to see him produce a lot of offense after giving up a draft pick for him. Sanchez has had a good Spring Training so far, which could put him in the position to see a good deal of at bats once the regular season begins. Regardless, Sanchez will be a great option to pinch hit against lefties, and Jones will be a great option against righties.
Minor League Players We Could See This Year: Clint Robinson, Matt Hague, Matt Curry
Clint Robinson has put up some impressive numbers in the minors throughout his career, with an OPS of .902 in six minor league seasons. But because of certain players blocking him at the major league level with Kansas City, he hasn't gotten a chance to play in the majors. He came to the Pirates over the offseason, and has the chance to be the next Garrett Jones if the opportunity presents itself. By saying "the next Garrett Jones", I mean a player who has good minor league numbers but hasn't gotten a chance in the majors who goes on to hit well in the majors when finally given a chance. Matt Hague is probably the fourth guy on the depth chart at this point, and he doesn't really provide much offensive or defensive upside, and he will be limited to bench duty if he gets a chance with the major league club. Matt Curry is one of the top first base prospects in the upper levels (behind Alex Dickerson), and is rated the #23 prospect in the Pirates system, according to Baseball America. He has the potential to be a .280 hitter with 15-20 homers in the majors one day, but won't get much if any of an opportunity in 2013 at the major league level.
First base has the potential to be a strength for the Pirates in 2013, if both Garrett Jones and Gaby Sanchez hit to their potential in their potential platoon roles. But, if they don't hit up to their potential, a weakness will be created that will need to be addressed at either the trade deadline or in the next offseason, unless the team feels comfortable trusting Clint Robinson or Matt Curry to handle the first base duties. Another topic to consider is that if the Pirates seem to be out of playoff contention around the trade deadline and Jones is hitting well, could Jones be traded? If he puts up numbers like he did last year, he would be a great option for contenders and could bring a good return for the Pirates. That is something that the Pirates explored this past offseason, and could be an interesting story to follow throughout the year. But at this point, we can assume that the Pirates' first base production will be around .250-.260 with 20-25 home runs. That's not bad, but the Pirates would love to see a platoon between Jones and Sanchez produce even more than what Jones gave the team in 2012.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.
Friday, January 11, 2013
The Pirates Should Trade for Justin Upton
Justin Upton trade rumors have been swirling around since June, and the Pirates were one of the teams said to have interest in Upton before the deadline. However, the Diamondback's asking price was too high for any team, and Upton stayed in Arizona for the remainder of the season. Now in January, the Diamondbacks are still actively seeking for a trade partner for the 25 year-old outfielder. Upton has a no trade clause in his contract, with the Mariners, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Cubs as the four teams he can veto a trade. Recently, Upton rejected an agreed upon trade to the Mariners that would have sent top prospects Nick Franklin (SS) and Taijuan Walker (RHP), along with young relievers Charlie Furbush and Stephen Pryor. This is said to be the first trade offer that the Diamondbacks actually accepted. Also, the Texas Rangers, who were a major player for Justin Upton, are said to have "backed off" of a potential Upton deal.
The accepted Mariners offer to the Diamondbacks shows what it would take to land Upton. Nick Franklin is a good shortstop prospect who hit very well at AA this year before a promotion to AAA, where he struggled. He is an average defender at short, but may be better suited for second base long term. Taijuan Walker was one of the best pitching prospects in the game coming into 2012, but struggled with a 4.69 ERA in his first season at AA as a 19 year old. Still, he has a mid to high 90's fastball with a great curve and a developing changup. With this three pitch mix, he is still considered one of the best pitching prospects in the minors. Furbush and Pryor are young relievers who get a lot of strikeouts, with Furbush having a good year in the MLB as a 26 year old, and Pryor getting a taste of the majors as a 22 year-old.
This got me thinking, what would be a similar package of prospects in the Pirates system? Alen Hanson seems to be a similar prospect to Nick Franklin, a shortstop who has shown the ability to hit but has been inconsistent on defense. Jameson Taillon is a very close comparison to Taijuan Walker, with both having number one starter upside with a mid to high-90's fastballs, great curveballs, and improving changeups. I can think of three relievers that could compare to Furbush and Pryor, with those pitchers being Bryan Morris, Victor Black, and Duke Welker.
With Alen Hanson and Jameson Taillon being very similar to Franklin and Walker, the Pirates may be able to pull off a trade for Justin Upton with a package of Hanson, Taillon, and two of that relievers group, probably Morris and Black. If this trade were to be accepted, should the Pirates do it?
Justin Upton is one of the top young players in the game with great potential that he put on display in the 2011 season, where he finished fourth in the MVP voting as a 23 year old. He would be a great addition to any team in the majors, with three more years of team control. The Diamondbacks have a strained relationship with Upton and an excess of outfielders, so a deal seems likely to occur. The only problem here from a player standpoint with the Pirates is that the Pirates also have an excess of outfielders, with this proposed trade causing a jam with Marte and Snider. But, bringing in Upton could give the Pirates a potentially dangerous middle of the lineup, with Andrew McCutchen, Upton, Garrett Jones, and an improving Pedro Alvarez. That's four players who could approach the 30 homer mark, and that is a very rare feat for any lineup. If the opportunity for a trade comes, the Pirates have to pounce on it. The offense has not been good for the Pirates, especially over the past two seasons, and Upton can be a major threat at the plate that could turn around the team's offensive woes. With Gerrit Cole most likely making his major league debut and joining what could already be a solid rotation, an addition of Upton to the lineup could make the Pirates playoff contenders in 2013. Without Upton's impact bat, it is doubtful the Pirates make a playoff run in 2013.
The crowded outfield that would ensue from an Upton trade could pose a problem, but should not stop a deal from happening. The Pirates could still go with Marte in left, McCutchen in center, and Upton in right, with Travis Snider as a good bench option and filling in case of injuries or if Marte struggles at the plate. A Marte-McCutchen-Upton outfield could potentially give the Pirates one of the best outfields in all of baseball, especially if Marte lives up to his potential, and McCutchen and Upton put up numbers similar to their 2012 and 2011 seasons, respectively. But, if the Pirates really don't like the idea of having a crowded outfield (remember this would also affect Jerry Sands, Jose Tabata, and Alex Presley), a third team could be added to a potential deal. Two teams that I can see as fits would be the Mariners and the Rangers, as they were both looking to acquire Upton, and therefore could be looking for outfield help.
Pirates-Diamondbacks-Mariners Trade:
PIT GETS; Justin Upton
ARI GETS: Jameson Taillon, Nick Franklin, Victor Black
SEA GETS: Starling Marte, Jordy Mercer
In this trade the Pirates would be giving up Taillon, Black, Marte, and Mercer. The real trade-off here compared to a two team deal with the Pirates and Mariners is trading Marte instead of Hanson. Considering they would be getting a three years of a proven MLB player in Upton, the Pirates may be willing to lose Marte and keep Alen Hanson in the system. However, the Mariners may not be willing to part with Franklin for just Starling Marte and Jordy Mercer, so more may have to be added to this deal. If that is the case, the Pirates would be better served to do a two team deal.
Pirates-Diamondbacks-Rangers Trade:
PIT GETS: Justin Upton, Jorge Alfaro, Ronald Guzman
ARI GETS: Jameson Taillon, Mike Olt, Victor Black
TEX GETS: Starling Marte, Garrett Jones, Justin Wilson
Here the Pirates would be giving up more, with Taillon, Black, Marte, Jones, and Wilson leaving. But, they would also be receiving a little more with Texas prospects Jorge Alfaro and Ronald Guzman coming in the deal. Alfaro (19) and Guzman (18) are both very young players that are natural hitters. Alfaro is an athletic catcher who has a good arm behind the plate, with the chance to be a good average hitter with good power. Guzman, who received a high bonus after signing out of the Dominican Republic as a 16 year old, is a tall outfielder who can flat out hit, with the potential for plus power down the road as a left fielder or first baseman. After acquiring Didi Gregorius from the Reds in the Trevor Bauer deal, the Diamondbacks may look for a future third baseman, a spot that the Rangers' Mike Olt could definitely fill. Giving up Olt would cause a possible infield need for the Rangers at first base, a spot that would be filled by Garrett Jones in this deal. The question in this trade is whether the Rangers would be willing to give up Olt and the upside of both Alfaro and Guzman for Marte, Jones, and Wilson, but remember Marte is still under team control for the same amount of time that Olt is. If I were the Pirates, I would definitely make this deal, it's really just a question of if the Rangers would, as there is a good chance the Diamondbacks would accept this as well.
Justin Upton is has game-changing talent, and could be an MVP candidate for years to come. At 25 years old, opportunities to acquire this young talent are extremely rare, and when they present themselves, teams like the Pirates should take advantage. The Pirates would have to give up a lot in any deal, but it would be worth it to have Upton for at least the next three years. An effect of any Upton trade for the Pirates would be that there would not sign starting pitcher Francisco Liriano, as they would use his potential salary to cover Upton's $9.75 million salary in 2013. Upton is an elite talent that would benefit any team, and putting his bat in the 2013 Pirates lineup would give them a legitimate chance at the playoffs this year, and in the future.
Here are the three trade ideas from the Pirates' standpoint:
Pirates-Diamondbacks Trade:
PIRATES GET; Justin Upton
PIRATES GIVE: Jameson Taillon, Alen Hanson, Bryan Morris, Victor Black
Pirates-Diamondbacks-Mariners Trade:
PIRATES GET: Justin Upton
PIRATES GIVE: Jameson Taillon, Starling Marte, Victor Black, Jordy Mercer
Pirates-Diamondbacks-Rangers Trade:
PIRATES GET: Justin Upton, Jorge Alfaro, Ronald Guzman
PIRATES GIVE: Jameson Taillon, Starling Marte, Garrett Jones, Victor Black, Justin Wilson
The two team deal with the Pirates and Diamondbacks would be the most likely deal here, and the PIT-ARI-TEX deal would probably be the best for the Pirates. Which trade would you do?
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below. I would love to hear any other trade ideas you may have, or if you want to make changes/improvements to my ideas.
Potential 2013 Mid-Season Lineup and Rotation With Upton
LINEUP (based on a PIT-ARI deal)
1.) Marte-LF
2.) Walker-2B
3.) McCutchen-CF
4.) Upton-RF
5.) Alvarez-3B
6.) Jones-1B
7.) Martin-C
8.) Barmes-SS
ROTATION
Burnett
McDonald
Rodriguez
Cole
McPherson/Locke
I like the looks of that lineup.
The accepted Mariners offer to the Diamondbacks shows what it would take to land Upton. Nick Franklin is a good shortstop prospect who hit very well at AA this year before a promotion to AAA, where he struggled. He is an average defender at short, but may be better suited for second base long term. Taijuan Walker was one of the best pitching prospects in the game coming into 2012, but struggled with a 4.69 ERA in his first season at AA as a 19 year old. Still, he has a mid to high 90's fastball with a great curve and a developing changup. With this three pitch mix, he is still considered one of the best pitching prospects in the minors. Furbush and Pryor are young relievers who get a lot of strikeouts, with Furbush having a good year in the MLB as a 26 year old, and Pryor getting a taste of the majors as a 22 year-old.
This got me thinking, what would be a similar package of prospects in the Pirates system? Alen Hanson seems to be a similar prospect to Nick Franklin, a shortstop who has shown the ability to hit but has been inconsistent on defense. Jameson Taillon is a very close comparison to Taijuan Walker, with both having number one starter upside with a mid to high-90's fastballs, great curveballs, and improving changeups. I can think of three relievers that could compare to Furbush and Pryor, with those pitchers being Bryan Morris, Victor Black, and Duke Welker.
With Alen Hanson and Jameson Taillon being very similar to Franklin and Walker, the Pirates may be able to pull off a trade for Justin Upton with a package of Hanson, Taillon, and two of that relievers group, probably Morris and Black. If this trade were to be accepted, should the Pirates do it?
Justin Upton is one of the top young players in the game with great potential that he put on display in the 2011 season, where he finished fourth in the MVP voting as a 23 year old. He would be a great addition to any team in the majors, with three more years of team control. The Diamondbacks have a strained relationship with Upton and an excess of outfielders, so a deal seems likely to occur. The only problem here from a player standpoint with the Pirates is that the Pirates also have an excess of outfielders, with this proposed trade causing a jam with Marte and Snider. But, bringing in Upton could give the Pirates a potentially dangerous middle of the lineup, with Andrew McCutchen, Upton, Garrett Jones, and an improving Pedro Alvarez. That's four players who could approach the 30 homer mark, and that is a very rare feat for any lineup. If the opportunity for a trade comes, the Pirates have to pounce on it. The offense has not been good for the Pirates, especially over the past two seasons, and Upton can be a major threat at the plate that could turn around the team's offensive woes. With Gerrit Cole most likely making his major league debut and joining what could already be a solid rotation, an addition of Upton to the lineup could make the Pirates playoff contenders in 2013. Without Upton's impact bat, it is doubtful the Pirates make a playoff run in 2013.
The crowded outfield that would ensue from an Upton trade could pose a problem, but should not stop a deal from happening. The Pirates could still go with Marte in left, McCutchen in center, and Upton in right, with Travis Snider as a good bench option and filling in case of injuries or if Marte struggles at the plate. A Marte-McCutchen-Upton outfield could potentially give the Pirates one of the best outfields in all of baseball, especially if Marte lives up to his potential, and McCutchen and Upton put up numbers similar to their 2012 and 2011 seasons, respectively. But, if the Pirates really don't like the idea of having a crowded outfield (remember this would also affect Jerry Sands, Jose Tabata, and Alex Presley), a third team could be added to a potential deal. Two teams that I can see as fits would be the Mariners and the Rangers, as they were both looking to acquire Upton, and therefore could be looking for outfield help.
Pirates-Diamondbacks-Mariners Trade:
PIT GETS; Justin Upton
ARI GETS: Jameson Taillon, Nick Franklin, Victor Black
SEA GETS: Starling Marte, Jordy Mercer
In this trade the Pirates would be giving up Taillon, Black, Marte, and Mercer. The real trade-off here compared to a two team deal with the Pirates and Mariners is trading Marte instead of Hanson. Considering they would be getting a three years of a proven MLB player in Upton, the Pirates may be willing to lose Marte and keep Alen Hanson in the system. However, the Mariners may not be willing to part with Franklin for just Starling Marte and Jordy Mercer, so more may have to be added to this deal. If that is the case, the Pirates would be better served to do a two team deal.
Pirates-Diamondbacks-Rangers Trade:
PIT GETS: Justin Upton, Jorge Alfaro, Ronald Guzman
ARI GETS: Jameson Taillon, Mike Olt, Victor Black
TEX GETS: Starling Marte, Garrett Jones, Justin Wilson
Here the Pirates would be giving up more, with Taillon, Black, Marte, Jones, and Wilson leaving. But, they would also be receiving a little more with Texas prospects Jorge Alfaro and Ronald Guzman coming in the deal. Alfaro (19) and Guzman (18) are both very young players that are natural hitters. Alfaro is an athletic catcher who has a good arm behind the plate, with the chance to be a good average hitter with good power. Guzman, who received a high bonus after signing out of the Dominican Republic as a 16 year old, is a tall outfielder who can flat out hit, with the potential for plus power down the road as a left fielder or first baseman. After acquiring Didi Gregorius from the Reds in the Trevor Bauer deal, the Diamondbacks may look for a future third baseman, a spot that the Rangers' Mike Olt could definitely fill. Giving up Olt would cause a possible infield need for the Rangers at first base, a spot that would be filled by Garrett Jones in this deal. The question in this trade is whether the Rangers would be willing to give up Olt and the upside of both Alfaro and Guzman for Marte, Jones, and Wilson, but remember Marte is still under team control for the same amount of time that Olt is. If I were the Pirates, I would definitely make this deal, it's really just a question of if the Rangers would, as there is a good chance the Diamondbacks would accept this as well.
Justin Upton is has game-changing talent, and could be an MVP candidate for years to come. At 25 years old, opportunities to acquire this young talent are extremely rare, and when they present themselves, teams like the Pirates should take advantage. The Pirates would have to give up a lot in any deal, but it would be worth it to have Upton for at least the next three years. An effect of any Upton trade for the Pirates would be that there would not sign starting pitcher Francisco Liriano, as they would use his potential salary to cover Upton's $9.75 million salary in 2013. Upton is an elite talent that would benefit any team, and putting his bat in the 2013 Pirates lineup would give them a legitimate chance at the playoffs this year, and in the future.
Here are the three trade ideas from the Pirates' standpoint:
Pirates-Diamondbacks Trade:
PIRATES GET; Justin Upton
PIRATES GIVE: Jameson Taillon, Alen Hanson, Bryan Morris, Victor Black
Pirates-Diamondbacks-Mariners Trade:
PIRATES GET: Justin Upton
PIRATES GIVE: Jameson Taillon, Starling Marte, Victor Black, Jordy Mercer
Pirates-Diamondbacks-Rangers Trade:
PIRATES GET: Justin Upton, Jorge Alfaro, Ronald Guzman
PIRATES GIVE: Jameson Taillon, Starling Marte, Garrett Jones, Victor Black, Justin Wilson
The two team deal with the Pirates and Diamondbacks would be the most likely deal here, and the PIT-ARI-TEX deal would probably be the best for the Pirates. Which trade would you do?
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below. I would love to hear any other trade ideas you may have, or if you want to make changes/improvements to my ideas.
Potential 2013 Mid-Season Lineup and Rotation With Upton
LINEUP (based on a PIT-ARI deal)
1.) Marte-LF
2.) Walker-2B
3.) McCutchen-CF
4.) Upton-RF
5.) Alvarez-3B
6.) Jones-1B
7.) Martin-C
8.) Barmes-SS
ROTATION
Burnett
McDonald
Rodriguez
Cole
McPherson/Locke
I like the looks of that lineup.
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