The Pittsburgh Pirates have selected Austin Meadows as the ninth overall pick in the 2013 MLB draft.
Here's my scouting report of him from my draft preview:
6) Austin Meadows--OF--L/L--6'3--200--HSMeadows has the potential to be a five-tool talent, and may have the best shot at being that type of player out of anyone in this draft class. He has the range to handle center field, along with the speed and arm to make it in any outfield position. He makes good contact with a solid swing, but hasn't produced as much power in games as scouts would like him to. If he develops power, he has the highest upside of any player in this class.
Meadows was the best player still on the board for the Pirates at number nine, so the Pirates made the correct choice here. There's not much question as to whether he will sign or not, but it will probably take around the slotted amount of $3,029,600 to sign him to a deal. He has the highest upside of any high school position player in this draft class, and will most likely start in the rookie level Gulf Coast League if he plays this year. Expect him to start the year in Low-A West Virginia in 2014.
Thursday, June 6, 2013
Wednesday, June 5, 2013
2013 Draft Preview: My Draft Board
The 2013 MLB draft is coming up on Thursday, and just like last year, it is unclear who will be taken at the top of the draft. Also similar to last year, this year's crop of talent is considered to be relatively weak, especially when compared to the 2011 draft. However, there is some depth in this year's class, mostly in the prep ranks. There is a lot of high school catching talent that should come off the board early, as well as some depth with high school lefties. The prospects at the top of the draft are mostly college players and high school hitters. After that, we see a lot of high-risk, high-upside high school pitchers, along with some safer college players.
This is the first time I have scouted the draft to this extent and made a draft board along with it, and I approached it by reading scouting reports and watching videos from MLB.com and Keith Law, as well as any other websites that had player rankings, mock drafts, or videos of the players. From reading these reports and watching videos of the prospects, I made my own judgments on the ultimate upside of players, their floors, and what tools they do or do not have. With all that, I created a draft board of 50 players in order of how I would draft them if I were an MLB General Manager or scouting director (which I will be one day). I would also like to note that this is not a mock draft, just what I would do.
1) Mark Appel--RHP--6'5--215--College Senior
Appel, who was in contention for the first overall selection in the 2012 draft, returns as the top prospect in the 2013 draft after not signing with the Pirates, who selected him with the number eight overall pick. Appel is armed with a mid 90's fastball, along with a slider and change, which both grade as plus pitches. Some scouts say he is the most polished pitcher coming from the draft since Stephen Strasburg, and he is probably the closest player to the majors in this draft class.
2) Jonathan Gray--RHP--6'4--245--College Junior
Gray forced himself to the top of draft boards this year by displaying an upper 90's fastball that has exceeded 100 MPH, even late into games. He also has a plus-plus slider and commands his pitches well. Gray has as high an upside as Appel, but isn't as polished at this point, so he will take a little longer to reach the majors. Sources say Gray recently tested positive for Adderall in the mandatory drug test for the draft's top 200 prospects, which is a banned substance, but most believe this shouldn't have a major impact on his draft status.
3) Kris Bryant--3B--R/R--6'5--215--CJr
Bryant currently leads college baseball in home runs in 2013, with 31 homers in 215 at bats. To put that in perspective, the next highest home run total in college baseball is 18. He has the best power in the class, and has cut down on his strikeouts this year, making him better as an overall hitter. There are questions as to whether he will stay at third base (something you will hear about most amateur third baseman, shortstops, and center fielders), but his strong arm will play well in right field, where he has seen some time this year.
4) Colin Moran--3B--L/R--6'3--215--CJr
Many scouts call Moran the best overall bat in the class, as he hits for average, power, and has amazing plate discipline. As I stated above, as a college third baseman there are questions as to whether Moran will stay at the position, but he has the hands and the arm strength to stay there if he can improve his footwork. He is polished enough that he should be able to move quicker through the minors than any other hitter in this draft.
5) Kohl Stewart--RHP--6'3--190--High School
The top prep pitcher in the class, Kohl Stewart has top of the rotation potential, with a fastball that reaches the mid 90's and potential for a plus slider. He also has a curve and a change, with the curve having the potential to be an above average pitch. However, he has a commitment to play football at Texas A&M, which could drive up his bonus demands.
6) Austin Meadows--OF--L/L--6'3--200--HS
Meadows has the potential to be a five-tool talent, and may have the best shot at being that type of player out of anyone in this draft class. He has the range to handle center field, along with the speed and arm to make it in any outfield position. He makes good contact with a solid swing, but hasn't produced as much power in games as scouts would like him to. If he develops power, he has the highest upside of any player in this class.
7) Braden Shipley--RHP--6'3--190--CJr
Shipley has performed very well this year, which has shot his name up on draft boards. He generally sits 92-95 with his fastball, but has reached the 97-99 MPH range. He also has a changeup that could be a plus pitch, along with a curveball that could be an above average to plus pitch.
8) Clint Frazier--OF--R/R--6'1--190--HS
Frazier and Meadows are both from the same area in Georgia, and many scouts are split on who the better prospect is. While Meadows is more of an all around player, Frazier could have the better bat. He has tremendous bat speed with a very short swing that leads to hard contact, and that should give him the potential to have plus power.
9) D.J. Peterson--3B/1B--R/R--6'1--190--CJr
Some say that Peterson is the best overall bat in the draft this year, but he lacks the upside of other college hitters like Bryant or Moran. He generates good contact with his swing, but I question whether he will continue to have above average power in pro ball. He will almost surely end up as a first baseman in the future, with average to slightly below average range at third. He has a high floor, and shouldn't be too far from the majors, but also doesn't have a huge upside.
10) Dominic Smith--1B--L/L--6'0--195--HS
Some scouts believe that Smith has the highest offensive upside of any player in this draft. He has a great swing that can generate a lot power in the future, but hasn't overwhelmed anyone with his power so far. As a plus defender at first with a surprisingly good arm, Smith should be able to really focus on his hitting more during his time in the minors, making him a safer bet to hit than most high school players. I also am very high on high school first basemen who can hit, as they have a very good success rate in their pro careers when taken in the first round.
11) Reese McGuire--C--L/R--6'1--190--HS
McGuire is a defensive first catcher who has the best arm from behind the plate in the draft. He has incredible pop times to go along with that 70-80 arm (on the 20-80 scale), and has improved his receiving skills since last season. His bat is questionable, and doesn't have the upside of other high school catchers in this class, but he could hit for a decent-good average with moderate power. Regardless, he will remain a defensive first catcher who can really control the running game.
12) Hunter Renfroe--OF--R/R--6'1--216--CJr
Renfroe hadn't performed much during his college career entering the 2013 season, but he has become one of the best performers in the NCAA this season. The raw tools were always there, especially his great raw power and speed combination, along with an above average arm and range in the outfield. He is the toolsiest college hitter in the draft, and the only other player that can rival his overall package of talent is Austin Meadows.
13) Trey Ball--LHP--6'6--180--HS
Ball is a two-way player, being both a good pitching prospect and a good hitting prospect. At this point, there's little doubt that Ball will be selected as a pitcher, as he has a much higher upside at that position. Ball will sit in the low 90's in his starts, and has consistently hit 94 MPH. With his very projectable body, that velocity could eventually end up sitting in the mid 90's and will even have the chance to hit the upper 90's. He also has the chance to have an above average curveball in addition to that fastball. Ball has a lot of upside, but will probably need a lot of development time in the minors.
14) Ryne Stanek--RHP--6'4--190--CJr
Stanek came into the year with the potential to go in the top 3-5 picks, but command issues and problems with his delivery have caused some concerns with scouts. He also isn't striking out enough batters with the pitches that he has. Still, he has a fastball that sits 92-94 MPH and can go a little higher, with potential for a plus slider to go with that.
15) J.P. Crawford--SS--L/R--6'2--175--HS
The best shortstop in the class, Crawford will be a coveted player for most teams, especially with picks 10-20. He has an athletic body, one that could allow him to grow into more power. With his smooth swing, he could hit 10-15 homers a year in the future if he fills out his body, along with a decent average. He is a safe bet to stick at short, which is not extremely common for high school shortstops.
16) Nick Ciuffo--C--L/R--6'1--200--HS
Ciuffo is in a solid group of prep catchers this year, and is the best receiving catcher in the class. He has improved his arm to a point where he should have no trouble staying behind the plate. He displays good bat speed that will generate a lot of solidly hit balls, and could also give him above average power. Ciuffo may have the best shot at being a two-way catcher when compared to other catchers in this class, as he has the best combination of offensive and defensive abilities.
17) Chris Anderson--RHP--6'4--225--CJr
I was a little hesitant to put Anderson this high, but with his combination of size, stuff, and improved control this year, I had to put him here. Earlier in the year, Anderson was hitting 96 MPH with his fastball and paired that with a plus slider. As the year went on, he began to fade and lost some velocity on his fastball, as well as the feel for his slider. If he can regain his early season form and keep it as a pro, Anderson could be a number two starter. If he doesn't regain what he had, then there's a chance he could end up a reliever.
18) Hunter Harvey--RHP--6'3--175--HS
Harvey has a big projectable body, with a fastball that is currently sitting at 90-94 MPH, and is said to have hit 97. With his body, he could see an increase in velocity as he matures. He matches that with a potential plus curveball, but doesn't have a third pitch yet. He doesn't have a good delivery, one that limits arm speed and causes struggle with his command, but it is fixable. He is a high-risk, high-reward player, and if a player development system fixes his delivery, his body fills out (adding to his velocity), and he discovers a changeup, Harvey could be a top of the rotation pitcher.
19) Sean Manaea--LHP--6'5--235--CJr
Manaea is another player that I was hesitant to have this high. Manaea started the season with a chance to go number one overall after a brilliant season in the Cape Cod summer league. There he showed a good fastball that was up to 96 MPH, along with a great slider and good changeup. During this college season, however, Manaea has dealt with injuries and his velocity has dropped off a bit and his arsenal wasn't what is was during the Cape Cod League. Despite his stuff not being as sharp and those injury concerns, Manaea has a high upside and good floor, so teams willing to take a risk on him could get a good late first round steal.
20) Matt Krook--LHP--6'4--200--HS
Krook is a big high school lefty that possesses a fastball that sits 88-92 MPH, with a chance to add a little more velocity in the future. He also has the potential for a plus curve that has good depth and spin to it. He is mainly a two-pitch guy at this point, but he will flash a rare change at 79-80 MPH. Scouts feel he needs to work on his delivery, but I don't see too much wrong with it, personally. If he improves on his velocity a little and gets a better feel for his changeup, he could be a good 2-3 starter in the majors.
21) Marco Gonzales--LHP--6'1--185--CJr
A high floor, low upside college pitcher, Gonzales will sit in the upper 80's and occasionally hit 90-91. His main weapons are his secondary pitches, with a plus changeup and above average curveball. He has good command, and all of that combined should allow him to move through a system relatively quickly.
22) Jon Denney--C--R/R--6'2--205--HS
Denney has the look and ability to be an offensive threat behind the plate, with good raw power and the potential to hit for a good average. Out of the top three prep catchers, the other two being Reese McGuire and Nick Ciuffo, Denney has the most struggles on defense. He has an average to slightly above average arm behind the plate, but has troubles with receiving. If he improves on his catching ability, his offense gives him All-Star potential.
23) Eric Jagielo--3B--L/R--6'3--215--CJr
Jagielo has a polished bat that has led to a .388 average so far this season, but his swing can get a little long at times. He makes consistent solid contact which also leads to good power, but doesn't have the same level of ability as Bryant or Moran, and is not quite with Peterson, although he isn't far behind. He has a chance to stay at third, where he will be average defensively.
24) Rob Kaminsky--LHP--6'0--188--HS
Another high upside high school lefty, Kaminsky brings a fastball that is 92-95 that could end up a plus pitch. To pair with his fastball, Kaminsky throws a curve that could also end up as a plus pitch. He doesn't have the ideal body that scouts love to see, but he has a lot of arm speed and he displays command that should be at least average down the road.
25) Billy McKinney--OF--L/L--6'1--195
McKinney has one of the highest upsides of any hitter in this year's draft, with the chance to hit for both average and power. He has a long swing, which could lead to strikeouts in the future, but he has strong hands and good hip rotation that will lead to power. He's not much of a defender, with below average speed and not much of an arm, so he will be limited to left field for now.
26) Ian Clarkin--LHP--6'2--190--HS
Yet another high upside high school lefty, Clarkin has a fastball that he throws up to 92-93, with the chance to add a little velocity in the future. He adds a power curve that could end up as an above average or even plus pitch, along with an average change. He could be a middle of the rotation starter, with an outside chance of being a number two guy, but needs to improve on his command to get there.
27) Phil Bickford--RHP--6'4--200--HS
Bickford has really been shooting up a lot of draft boards recently, with some very impressive starts in his last few outings, including a 17 strikeout performance. He throws a fastball that can reach the mid to upper 90's with good sink, and the chance to even throw a little harder. However, he doesn't have anything special beyond that fastball, with his slider and change grading as average pitches. If he wants to be more than a power fastball kind of pitcher, then he will need to vastly improve his breaking stuff.
28) Hunter Dozier--SS/IF--R/R--6'4--220--CJr
Dozier is a big guy who has very little chance to stay at short as a pro, but he has the arm and range to translate over to third base, and should be at least average there. His real value comes with his bat, as he has been one of the best performers in the NCAA this year. He could provide above average power with a decent average to go along with that.
29) Alex Gonzalez--RHP--6'3--200--CJr
He possesses no plus pitches, but is average to above average across the board with good control and good strikeout numbers. His fastball sits at 91-94 MPH with good movement, along with a slider/cutter pitch that comes in anywhere from 84-90 MPH. He doesn't have a very high upside, but he has a very high floor, and won't take too long to make the majors, and could be selected in the middle of the first round.
30) Austin Wilson--OF--R/R--6'5--245--CJr
Wilson is a big, strong player who has a good deal of upside, but is far from a safe bet. He put up less than impressive numbers this year, especially for a player with his talent. With his size, he has a lot of raw power, but after suffering from injuries this year, he struggled to get on track offensively. Despite his lack of performance this year, his athleticism should draw teams attention, as he could hit for above average power with decent defense in a corner outfield spot.
31) Aaron Judge--OF--R/R--6'7--255--CJr
Judge is possibly the biggest guy in the draft, from a pure size standpoint. At 6 feet, 7 inches tall, Judge has huge raw power, which hasn't really shown up much in games until this season. He will probably endure some higher strikeout totals as a pro, but his power should make it at least somewhat acceptable. He is athletic and should be at least an average defender in a corner outfield spot, with an above average arm and decent range.
32) Kyle Serrano--RHP--6'0--185--HS
Serrano has the potential for two plus off speed pitches with his curve and change, with his curve being the better of the two pitches. He will sit 90-94 with his fastball, but doesn't have much projection to add more velocity in the future. He has at least number two starter upside, but is a very tough sign due to a commitment to Tennessee, where his father is the head baseball coach.
33) Devin Williams--RHP--6'3--172--HS
Williams has a projectable body with a good chance to add velocity as he matures, though he already throws with good velocity, sitting in the low 90's and hitting 93-94. He mixes in a change, which is his best off-speed pitch, along with a slider that has been improving. Williams is very raw at this point, so it is difficult to determine his ultimate upside. He could be a hard throwing righty with two good off-speed pitches, but could take four or five years to develop.
34) Carlos Salazar--RHP--6'0--200--HS
No one really has Salazar rated as highly as I do, or else I may have even rated him higher than this. Salazar possesses great arm strength that allows him to hit 97 on the gun, making his fastball a potential plus pitch. He also shows a good slurvy pitch that has great break to it, which also has the potential to be a plus pitch. He has a feel for a change as well, and I'd say that pitch has the chance to be above average. With that total package, Salazar is a high upside player that could work out of the first couple spots in a major league rotation, but he is committed to his hometown Fresno State, so could be a tough sign if he doesn't go high in the draft.
35) Tim Anderson--SS--R/R--6'1--180--Junior College
Most people have Anderson higher than I do, due to his athleticism and the strong probability of him staying at shortstop. He has plus speed with the ability to hit for average and doubles power, but not much home run power. If he can't stay at shortstop, he has the athletic ability to play centerfield, much like the move that Reds' prospect Billy Hamilton made. I have him rated this low because of the fact he plays in Junior College, and the competition is nowhere near as good as the NCAA, but the tools are there.
36) Andrew Thurman--RHP--6'3--205--CJr
There isn't much upside with Thurman, but he has very good command and control of his pitches, making him pretty polished coming out of college. He will sit 90-93 with his fastball, along a change that could be a plus pitch in the future. He is a safe pick with number three or four starter upside, as well as a high floor.
This is the first time I have scouted the draft to this extent and made a draft board along with it, and I approached it by reading scouting reports and watching videos from MLB.com and Keith Law, as well as any other websites that had player rankings, mock drafts, or videos of the players. From reading these reports and watching videos of the prospects, I made my own judgments on the ultimate upside of players, their floors, and what tools they do or do not have. With all that, I created a draft board of 50 players in order of how I would draft them if I were an MLB General Manager or scouting director (which I will be one day). I would also like to note that this is not a mock draft, just what I would do.
1) Mark Appel--RHP--6'5--215--College Senior
Appel, who was in contention for the first overall selection in the 2012 draft, returns as the top prospect in the 2013 draft after not signing with the Pirates, who selected him with the number eight overall pick. Appel is armed with a mid 90's fastball, along with a slider and change, which both grade as plus pitches. Some scouts say he is the most polished pitcher coming from the draft since Stephen Strasburg, and he is probably the closest player to the majors in this draft class.
2) Jonathan Gray--RHP--6'4--245--College Junior
Gray forced himself to the top of draft boards this year by displaying an upper 90's fastball that has exceeded 100 MPH, even late into games. He also has a plus-plus slider and commands his pitches well. Gray has as high an upside as Appel, but isn't as polished at this point, so he will take a little longer to reach the majors. Sources say Gray recently tested positive for Adderall in the mandatory drug test for the draft's top 200 prospects, which is a banned substance, but most believe this shouldn't have a major impact on his draft status.
3) Kris Bryant--3B--R/R--6'5--215--CJr
Bryant currently leads college baseball in home runs in 2013, with 31 homers in 215 at bats. To put that in perspective, the next highest home run total in college baseball is 18. He has the best power in the class, and has cut down on his strikeouts this year, making him better as an overall hitter. There are questions as to whether he will stay at third base (something you will hear about most amateur third baseman, shortstops, and center fielders), but his strong arm will play well in right field, where he has seen some time this year.
4) Colin Moran--3B--L/R--6'3--215--CJr
Many scouts call Moran the best overall bat in the class, as he hits for average, power, and has amazing plate discipline. As I stated above, as a college third baseman there are questions as to whether Moran will stay at the position, but he has the hands and the arm strength to stay there if he can improve his footwork. He is polished enough that he should be able to move quicker through the minors than any other hitter in this draft.
5) Kohl Stewart--RHP--6'3--190--High School
The top prep pitcher in the class, Kohl Stewart has top of the rotation potential, with a fastball that reaches the mid 90's and potential for a plus slider. He also has a curve and a change, with the curve having the potential to be an above average pitch. However, he has a commitment to play football at Texas A&M, which could drive up his bonus demands.
6) Austin Meadows--OF--L/L--6'3--200--HS
Meadows has the potential to be a five-tool talent, and may have the best shot at being that type of player out of anyone in this draft class. He has the range to handle center field, along with the speed and arm to make it in any outfield position. He makes good contact with a solid swing, but hasn't produced as much power in games as scouts would like him to. If he develops power, he has the highest upside of any player in this class.
7) Braden Shipley--RHP--6'3--190--CJr
Shipley has performed very well this year, which has shot his name up on draft boards. He generally sits 92-95 with his fastball, but has reached the 97-99 MPH range. He also has a changeup that could be a plus pitch, along with a curveball that could be an above average to plus pitch.
8) Clint Frazier--OF--R/R--6'1--190--HS
Frazier and Meadows are both from the same area in Georgia, and many scouts are split on who the better prospect is. While Meadows is more of an all around player, Frazier could have the better bat. He has tremendous bat speed with a very short swing that leads to hard contact, and that should give him the potential to have plus power.
9) D.J. Peterson--3B/1B--R/R--6'1--190--CJr
Some say that Peterson is the best overall bat in the draft this year, but he lacks the upside of other college hitters like Bryant or Moran. He generates good contact with his swing, but I question whether he will continue to have above average power in pro ball. He will almost surely end up as a first baseman in the future, with average to slightly below average range at third. He has a high floor, and shouldn't be too far from the majors, but also doesn't have a huge upside.
10) Dominic Smith--1B--L/L--6'0--195--HS
Some scouts believe that Smith has the highest offensive upside of any player in this draft. He has a great swing that can generate a lot power in the future, but hasn't overwhelmed anyone with his power so far. As a plus defender at first with a surprisingly good arm, Smith should be able to really focus on his hitting more during his time in the minors, making him a safer bet to hit than most high school players. I also am very high on high school first basemen who can hit, as they have a very good success rate in their pro careers when taken in the first round.
11) Reese McGuire--C--L/R--6'1--190--HS
McGuire is a defensive first catcher who has the best arm from behind the plate in the draft. He has incredible pop times to go along with that 70-80 arm (on the 20-80 scale), and has improved his receiving skills since last season. His bat is questionable, and doesn't have the upside of other high school catchers in this class, but he could hit for a decent-good average with moderate power. Regardless, he will remain a defensive first catcher who can really control the running game.
12) Hunter Renfroe--OF--R/R--6'1--216--CJr
Renfroe hadn't performed much during his college career entering the 2013 season, but he has become one of the best performers in the NCAA this season. The raw tools were always there, especially his great raw power and speed combination, along with an above average arm and range in the outfield. He is the toolsiest college hitter in the draft, and the only other player that can rival his overall package of talent is Austin Meadows.
13) Trey Ball--LHP--6'6--180--HS
Ball is a two-way player, being both a good pitching prospect and a good hitting prospect. At this point, there's little doubt that Ball will be selected as a pitcher, as he has a much higher upside at that position. Ball will sit in the low 90's in his starts, and has consistently hit 94 MPH. With his very projectable body, that velocity could eventually end up sitting in the mid 90's and will even have the chance to hit the upper 90's. He also has the chance to have an above average curveball in addition to that fastball. Ball has a lot of upside, but will probably need a lot of development time in the minors.
14) Ryne Stanek--RHP--6'4--190--CJr
Stanek came into the year with the potential to go in the top 3-5 picks, but command issues and problems with his delivery have caused some concerns with scouts. He also isn't striking out enough batters with the pitches that he has. Still, he has a fastball that sits 92-94 MPH and can go a little higher, with potential for a plus slider to go with that.
15) J.P. Crawford--SS--L/R--6'2--175--HS
The best shortstop in the class, Crawford will be a coveted player for most teams, especially with picks 10-20. He has an athletic body, one that could allow him to grow into more power. With his smooth swing, he could hit 10-15 homers a year in the future if he fills out his body, along with a decent average. He is a safe bet to stick at short, which is not extremely common for high school shortstops.
16) Nick Ciuffo--C--L/R--6'1--200--HS
Ciuffo is in a solid group of prep catchers this year, and is the best receiving catcher in the class. He has improved his arm to a point where he should have no trouble staying behind the plate. He displays good bat speed that will generate a lot of solidly hit balls, and could also give him above average power. Ciuffo may have the best shot at being a two-way catcher when compared to other catchers in this class, as he has the best combination of offensive and defensive abilities.
17) Chris Anderson--RHP--6'4--225--CJr
I was a little hesitant to put Anderson this high, but with his combination of size, stuff, and improved control this year, I had to put him here. Earlier in the year, Anderson was hitting 96 MPH with his fastball and paired that with a plus slider. As the year went on, he began to fade and lost some velocity on his fastball, as well as the feel for his slider. If he can regain his early season form and keep it as a pro, Anderson could be a number two starter. If he doesn't regain what he had, then there's a chance he could end up a reliever.
18) Hunter Harvey--RHP--6'3--175--HS
Harvey has a big projectable body, with a fastball that is currently sitting at 90-94 MPH, and is said to have hit 97. With his body, he could see an increase in velocity as he matures. He matches that with a potential plus curveball, but doesn't have a third pitch yet. He doesn't have a good delivery, one that limits arm speed and causes struggle with his command, but it is fixable. He is a high-risk, high-reward player, and if a player development system fixes his delivery, his body fills out (adding to his velocity), and he discovers a changeup, Harvey could be a top of the rotation pitcher.
19) Sean Manaea--LHP--6'5--235--CJr
Manaea is another player that I was hesitant to have this high. Manaea started the season with a chance to go number one overall after a brilliant season in the Cape Cod summer league. There he showed a good fastball that was up to 96 MPH, along with a great slider and good changeup. During this college season, however, Manaea has dealt with injuries and his velocity has dropped off a bit and his arsenal wasn't what is was during the Cape Cod League. Despite his stuff not being as sharp and those injury concerns, Manaea has a high upside and good floor, so teams willing to take a risk on him could get a good late first round steal.
20) Matt Krook--LHP--6'4--200--HS
Krook is a big high school lefty that possesses a fastball that sits 88-92 MPH, with a chance to add a little more velocity in the future. He also has the potential for a plus curve that has good depth and spin to it. He is mainly a two-pitch guy at this point, but he will flash a rare change at 79-80 MPH. Scouts feel he needs to work on his delivery, but I don't see too much wrong with it, personally. If he improves on his velocity a little and gets a better feel for his changeup, he could be a good 2-3 starter in the majors.
21) Marco Gonzales--LHP--6'1--185--CJr
A high floor, low upside college pitcher, Gonzales will sit in the upper 80's and occasionally hit 90-91. His main weapons are his secondary pitches, with a plus changeup and above average curveball. He has good command, and all of that combined should allow him to move through a system relatively quickly.
22) Jon Denney--C--R/R--6'2--205--HS
Denney has the look and ability to be an offensive threat behind the plate, with good raw power and the potential to hit for a good average. Out of the top three prep catchers, the other two being Reese McGuire and Nick Ciuffo, Denney has the most struggles on defense. He has an average to slightly above average arm behind the plate, but has troubles with receiving. If he improves on his catching ability, his offense gives him All-Star potential.
23) Eric Jagielo--3B--L/R--6'3--215--CJr
Jagielo has a polished bat that has led to a .388 average so far this season, but his swing can get a little long at times. He makes consistent solid contact which also leads to good power, but doesn't have the same level of ability as Bryant or Moran, and is not quite with Peterson, although he isn't far behind. He has a chance to stay at third, where he will be average defensively.
24) Rob Kaminsky--LHP--6'0--188--HS
Another high upside high school lefty, Kaminsky brings a fastball that is 92-95 that could end up a plus pitch. To pair with his fastball, Kaminsky throws a curve that could also end up as a plus pitch. He doesn't have the ideal body that scouts love to see, but he has a lot of arm speed and he displays command that should be at least average down the road.
25) Billy McKinney--OF--L/L--6'1--195
McKinney has one of the highest upsides of any hitter in this year's draft, with the chance to hit for both average and power. He has a long swing, which could lead to strikeouts in the future, but he has strong hands and good hip rotation that will lead to power. He's not much of a defender, with below average speed and not much of an arm, so he will be limited to left field for now.
26) Ian Clarkin--LHP--6'2--190--HS
Yet another high upside high school lefty, Clarkin has a fastball that he throws up to 92-93, with the chance to add a little velocity in the future. He adds a power curve that could end up as an above average or even plus pitch, along with an average change. He could be a middle of the rotation starter, with an outside chance of being a number two guy, but needs to improve on his command to get there.
27) Phil Bickford--RHP--6'4--200--HS
Bickford has really been shooting up a lot of draft boards recently, with some very impressive starts in his last few outings, including a 17 strikeout performance. He throws a fastball that can reach the mid to upper 90's with good sink, and the chance to even throw a little harder. However, he doesn't have anything special beyond that fastball, with his slider and change grading as average pitches. If he wants to be more than a power fastball kind of pitcher, then he will need to vastly improve his breaking stuff.
28) Hunter Dozier--SS/IF--R/R--6'4--220--CJr
Dozier is a big guy who has very little chance to stay at short as a pro, but he has the arm and range to translate over to third base, and should be at least average there. His real value comes with his bat, as he has been one of the best performers in the NCAA this year. He could provide above average power with a decent average to go along with that.
29) Alex Gonzalez--RHP--6'3--200--CJr
He possesses no plus pitches, but is average to above average across the board with good control and good strikeout numbers. His fastball sits at 91-94 MPH with good movement, along with a slider/cutter pitch that comes in anywhere from 84-90 MPH. He doesn't have a very high upside, but he has a very high floor, and won't take too long to make the majors, and could be selected in the middle of the first round.
30) Austin Wilson--OF--R/R--6'5--245--CJr
Wilson is a big, strong player who has a good deal of upside, but is far from a safe bet. He put up less than impressive numbers this year, especially for a player with his talent. With his size, he has a lot of raw power, but after suffering from injuries this year, he struggled to get on track offensively. Despite his lack of performance this year, his athleticism should draw teams attention, as he could hit for above average power with decent defense in a corner outfield spot.
31) Aaron Judge--OF--R/R--6'7--255--CJr
Judge is possibly the biggest guy in the draft, from a pure size standpoint. At 6 feet, 7 inches tall, Judge has huge raw power, which hasn't really shown up much in games until this season. He will probably endure some higher strikeout totals as a pro, but his power should make it at least somewhat acceptable. He is athletic and should be at least an average defender in a corner outfield spot, with an above average arm and decent range.
32) Kyle Serrano--RHP--6'0--185--HS
Serrano has the potential for two plus off speed pitches with his curve and change, with his curve being the better of the two pitches. He will sit 90-94 with his fastball, but doesn't have much projection to add more velocity in the future. He has at least number two starter upside, but is a very tough sign due to a commitment to Tennessee, where his father is the head baseball coach.
Williams has a projectable body with a good chance to add velocity as he matures, though he already throws with good velocity, sitting in the low 90's and hitting 93-94. He mixes in a change, which is his best off-speed pitch, along with a slider that has been improving. Williams is very raw at this point, so it is difficult to determine his ultimate upside. He could be a hard throwing righty with two good off-speed pitches, but could take four or five years to develop.
34) Carlos Salazar--RHP--6'0--200--HS
No one really has Salazar rated as highly as I do, or else I may have even rated him higher than this. Salazar possesses great arm strength that allows him to hit 97 on the gun, making his fastball a potential plus pitch. He also shows a good slurvy pitch that has great break to it, which also has the potential to be a plus pitch. He has a feel for a change as well, and I'd say that pitch has the chance to be above average. With that total package, Salazar is a high upside player that could work out of the first couple spots in a major league rotation, but he is committed to his hometown Fresno State, so could be a tough sign if he doesn't go high in the draft.
35) Tim Anderson--SS--R/R--6'1--180--Junior College
Most people have Anderson higher than I do, due to his athleticism and the strong probability of him staying at shortstop. He has plus speed with the ability to hit for average and doubles power, but not much home run power. If he can't stay at shortstop, he has the athletic ability to play centerfield, much like the move that Reds' prospect Billy Hamilton made. I have him rated this low because of the fact he plays in Junior College, and the competition is nowhere near as good as the NCAA, but the tools are there.
36) Andrew Thurman--RHP--6'3--205--CJr
There isn't much upside with Thurman, but he has very good command and control of his pitches, making him pretty polished coming out of college. He will sit 90-93 with his fastball, along a change that could be a plus pitch in the future. He is a safe pick with number three or four starter upside, as well as a high floor.
37) Travis Demerritte--SS/3B--R/R--6'1--195--HS
Demerritte played a lot of shortstop in high school, but he will no doubt end up a third baseman as a pro player. He has great bat speed that gives him the potential to hit for plus power that will profile well at third base. He may not hit for a high average, but the power could make up for that. He has an athletic body as well, and his arm should work well at the hot corner.
38) Dustin Peterson--SS--R/R--6'2--185--HS
The younger brother of D.J. Peterson (#9 on this list), Dustin Peterson is another high school shortstop that will probably end up playing another position, and in his case it will most likely be second base. He has an average arm and range, which profile better at second than they do at third. Peterson's main asset is his bat, which has good power due to good hip rotation, and could produce 20+ homers as a pro. His short swing and good bat speed also generate solid contact consistently, and that could allow him to hit for a good average as well.
39) Josh Hart--OF--L/L--5'11--172--HS
Hart is a great athlete who could have plus speed that should give him good range in center, along with a good glove. He will be a threat on the base paths with his speed, displaying a good ability to swipe bases in high school. He will never hit for power, but may put up a decent average. His value will be with his speed and defense, and he really reminds me of Michael Bourn.
40) Phil Ervin--OF--R/R--5'11--190--CJr
Ervin is high on a lot of peoples' boards, but he isn't really spectacular as a hitter. He won the Cape Cod summer league's MVP award, after being a great power-speed player. He has plus speed, which should allow him to have a chance in center, but some see him as a future left fielder. He will get some loft on the ball with his swing, but there really isn't much power projection in his body. He doesn't have much of an upside as a hitter, but could be a decent power-speed player.
41) Cody Reed--LHP--6'5--220--JC
When he was in high school, Reed wasn't much of a prospect, as he was hitting only 84 MPH on the radar with a fringy slider. In his first two seasons at JuCo, he has increased his velocity drastically, now hitting as high as 94. He has also improved his slider, and has shown the ability to command his pitches, as well as miss bats with them. If he continues these improvements, Reed has a high upside.
42) Ryan Boldt--OF--L/R--6'1--190--HS
Boldt probably won't have any plus tools as a pro, but he could be above average with multiple tools. He is a very raw player that will take a long time to develop, but he has the ability to hit for a good average while playing a good centerfield. Boldt doesn't have much power projection in his swing or his body frame, but his batting average and defense in center can make up for that.
43) Jonathan Crawford--RHP--6'1--205--CJr
Crawford was higher on a lot of draft boards coming into the season, with the potential for a plus fastball and plus slider, but didn't have the junior season that many thought he would have. He still has a fastball that touches 96 and a hard slider, but his change doesn't have enough separation in velocity with his fastball. He also struggles a little with his control and command, and didn't miss many bats this spring. He has a higher upside than most college pitchers this low, but he will need to refine his command and changeup if he wants to reach his number two starter ceiling.
44) Jacob Brentz--LHP--6'2--195--HS
Brentz has a plus fastball that has hit the upper 90's this year, and that was sitting in the 91-95 range during a showcase in April. He also has the chance to have an above average changeup, but is basically a one pitch guy at this point, with his curveball being at best an average pitch. He has good command, but will be a project who needs to develop his offspeed pitches in order to reach his 2-3 starter upside.
45) Robert Tyler--RHP--6'3--196--HS
I have Tyler ranked higher than others do, as he has a projectable body with a fastball that can already reach 94 MPH with good movement. He has a hard curve that has been inconsistent, but also that has the chance to be a plus pitch in the future. He also throws an average change, along with a slider that he should probably get rid of. He has the potential of a number two starter if his curve reaches its potential, but he is a big project who will need to work on his mechanics.
46) Trevor Williams--RHP--6'3--228--CJr
Williams is average to above average with his three pitch mix, which includes a fastball, slider, and change. His fastball will sit at 90-94 MPH, but his best pitch is his change, which is a plus pitch at times. His slider doesn't have much of an upside, but with a good fastball and potential plus change, Williams could be a good middle to back of the rotation starter in the majors.
47) Garrett Williams--LHP--6'3--185--HS
Williams is a projectable lefty who has already hit 94, but he will mostly sit in the 88-92 range at this point. His curve comes in at 77-78 MPH, and it could also end up as an above average pitch. He has a questionable delivery right now, one that doesn't use much of his lower half. If he improved his delivery, Williams could really ramp up his fastball, making it a plus pitch in the future.
48) Connor Jones--RHP--6'1--190--HS
Jones has a three pitch mix that has nothing that stands out as a plus pitch, with a fastball that reaches 93 with good sinking movement. His slider has good late break on it, but it probably won't be more than slightly above average in the future, with his change being a strictly average pitch. He has good control and good pitchability, making him more polished than most high school pitchers.
49) Cavan Biggio--3B--L/R--6'2--180--HS
Son of the Astro great Craig Biggio, Cavan is a good natural hitter with a chance to add more power in the future as he fills out more. He is currently listed as a third baseman, but he has played other positions, including second base and outfield. He projects best as a second baseman with a below average arm, but his offense should make up for any defensive struggles at second. He has made consistent hard contact against strong competition, keeping the Biggio hitting genes in the family.
50) Rowdy Tellez--1B--L/L--6'4--220--HS
Tellez is a big high school first baseman who has one of the top high school bats in the draft. He has power to all fields, with potential plus plus power to the right field as a lefty hitter. He also could hit for a good average to go along with that power, making him a major threat at the plate. Tellez handles first base well and will be able to focus on his hitting as he develops. He will be a project, but he has the ability to hit 30+ homers with some of the best raw power in the draft.
25 MORE PLAYERS TO KNOW
Ryan Eades--RHP--6'3--193--CJr
Aaron Blair--RHP--6'4--220--CJr
Andrew Mitchell--RHP--6'3--220--CJr
Blake Taylor--LHP--6'3--220--HS
Will Crowe--RHP--6'3--225--HS
Jason Hursh--RHP--6'3--195--College Sophemore
Michael Lorenzen--RHP--6'3--195--CJr
Bobby Wahl--RHP--6'3--200--CJr
Tom Windle--LHP--6'4--215--CJr
Kevin Ziomek--LHP--6'3--200--CJr
Oscar Mercado--SS--R/R--6'2--175--HS
Dylan Covey--RHP--6'2--205--CJr
Alex Balog--RHP--6'6--225--CJr
Corey Knebel--RHP--6'3--210--CJr
Chad Pinder--3B--R/R--6'2--192--CJr
Chris Okey--C--R/R--6'0--179--HS
Colby Suggs--RHP--6'0--225--CJr
Cord Sandberg--OF/1B--L/L--6'2--215--HS
Stephen Tarpley--LHP--6'2--200--JC
Jared King--OF--S/L--6'1--200--CJr
Brian Ragira--1B/OF--R/R--6'2--200--CSr
Zack Collins--C--L/R--6'3--220--HS
Justin Williams--OF--L/R--6'3--215--HS
A.J. Vanegas--RHP--6'3--215--CJr
Hunter Green--LHP--6'2--200--HS
FIRST ROUND ORDER WITH SLOT VALUE
1) Houston Astros--$7,790,400
2) Chicago Cubs--$6,708,400
3) Colorado Rockies--$5,626,400
4) Minnesota Twins--$4,544,400
5) Cleveland Indians--$3,787,000
6) Miami Marlins--$3,516,500
7) Boston Red Sox--$3,246,000
8) Kansas City Royals--$3,137,800
9) Pittsburgh Pirates--$3,029,600
10) Toronto Blue Jays--$2,921,400
11) New York Mets--$2,840,300
12) Seattle Mariners--$2,759,100
13) San Diego Padres--$2,678,000
14) Pittsburgh Pirates--$2,569,800
15) Arizona Diamondbacks--$2,434,500
16) Philadelphia Phillies--$2,299,300
17) Chicago White Sox--$2,164,000
18) Los Angeles Dodgers--$2,109,900
19) St. Louis Cardinals--$2,055,800
20) Detroit Tigers--$2,001,700
21) Tampa Bay Rays--$1,974,700
22) Baltimore Orioles--$1,947,600
23) Texas Rangers--$1,920,600
24) Oakland Athletics--$1,893,500
25) San Francisco Giants--$1,866,500
26) New York Yankees--$1,839,400
27) Cincinnati Reds--$1,812,400
28) St. Louis Cardinals--$1,785,300
29) Tampa Bay Rays--$1,758,300
30) Texas Rangers--$1,731,200
31) Atlanta Braves--$1,704,200
32) New York Yankees--$1,677,100
33) New York Yankees--$1,650,100
Well, there it is. This has been my longest and most in depth project for this site, in terms of length and the amount of research and scouting I had to do to complete it. I hope this is a helpful tool to anyone that is interested in the MLB draft this year. If you would like me to expand on any of the players in the "25 more players to know" section, just ask in the comment section below. If you want to know where I think a player will go in the actual draft or which player I think a team will take, you can also ask in the comment section. I will be live tweeting the draft on Thursday, so you can follow me on twitter @mikemaw45 for any draft updates. Thanks for reading, and let's get excited for the 2013 MLB draft!
Monday, June 3, 2013
Sorry for the Delay--Draft Board Coming Soon
It's been a really long time since I've posted, as I've been very busy lately. I'm a senior in high school and I've had some final tests and projects that I've needed to work on, as well as releasing some music. In the meantime, though, I have been working on scouting for this year's MLB Draft, and that has taken a very long time. With this scouting, I have put together a draft board of my top 50 players, as well as the next best 25 players available. I am currently doing write-ups on these players, and I will have that up in the next couple days, as the draft begins Thursday. My school ends on Wednesday, but I don't have any more work to do for school so I will be able to start posting regularly now. Sorry for the lack of work on the website, and thank you for being patient. Bloggin Buccos will be up and running again in the next couple days, and hopefully we can expand the site a little with a podcast! Thanks!
Also, if there is any ever topic, player, or prospect that you would like to talk about or have me write an article about, you can email me at mikemaw45@gmail.com or tweet me @mikemaw45.
Thanks for reading!
Also, if there is any ever topic, player, or prospect that you would like to talk about or have me write an article about, you can email me at mikemaw45@gmail.com or tweet me @mikemaw45.
Thanks for reading!
Sunday, May 12, 2013
Pittsburgh Pirates Top 15 Prospects- May
We are a little over a month into the minor league season, and it is time for the May version of my top 15 prospects in the Pirates system. As I just stated, we are only a month into the season, so performance shouldn't be a big factor in these rankings, but it cannot be ignored. Some players are going to be over-performing, some will be under-performing, and some will be meeting expectations. Other players, like Justin Wilson and Bryan Morris, have graduated to the majors, while prospects like Gerrit Cole, Jordy Mercer, and Victor Black have taken a lot of steps forward to becoming full time major leaguers. With that being said, let's take a look at my May version of the top 15 prospects in the Pirates system.
2013 preview rankings in parenthesis
1) Gerrit Cole--RHP--22--AAA (1)
Cole has a very good ERA this year at 2.23, but there have been concerns about his walk rate, which is currently at 4.7 BB/9, and his strikeout rate, which is at 6.4 K/9. Still, Cole boasts the best arsenal of pitches in all of minor league baseball, and possesses good control, so those numbers will improve. We should see Cole move up to Pittsburgh sometime in June.
2) Jameson Taillon--RHP--21--AA (2)
Taillon has put up good numbers across the board this year, with an ERA of 3.26, a 1.29 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, and a 3.0 BB/9. With a plus fastball and plus curve, Taillon can improve on those numbers and should be up in Indianapolis at some point this season. It is doubtful Taillon will see any time in Pittsburgh this year.
3) Luis Heredia--RHP--18--A (3)
Heredia has yet to pitch this year in games that count, as the Pirates have held him in extended spring training. It is mid-May now, so we should see Heredia begin his career in low-A soon enough. With a potential plus fastball, curve, and change, Heredia has an enormous upside.
4) Gregory Polanco--OF--21--A+ (4)
Polanco has had a pretty similar season so far as he did last year, with his strikeout and walk rates almost identical to what they were in 2012. He's hitting the ball hard consistently, getting on base at a good rate, and is taking advantage when he is on base, with 13 steals to this point. A potential 5-tool talent, he could move up to AA at some point this year.
5) Josh Bell--OF--20--A (6)
Bell missed most of the 2012 season with a knee injury, but he has shown that that hasn't really affected him so far. He has put up a batting line of .291/.349/.515, with an OPS of .864, six home runs, and 34 RBI in 134 at bats. Bell has potential plus power from both sides of the plate along with the ability to hit for a good average and get on base, but may stay in low-A for most, if not all, of the 2013 season.
6) Alen Hanson--SS--20--A+ (5)
Hanson broke into the top prospect scene after a great April last year, but has not gotten off to a similar hot start in 2012. After 135 at bats, he has an OPS of .643, displaying none of the power that he showed last year. He also has struggled at shortstop, starting the year with ten errors in his first ten games. But, it is still early in the season and Hanson has plenty of time to pick up his game. As the best shortstop prospect in the system, Pirates fans hope he picks it up very soon.
7) Tyler Glasnow--RHP--19--A (12)
Glasnow came into the year as one of my potential breakout prospects after a good 2012 season in rookie ball, and he has carried that performance into 2013. He has an ERA of 1.80, 1.12 WHIP, and an 11.9 K/9 in 25 IP. Those are great numbers, but he has struggled with his control so far, with a 6.1 BB/9. If he can harness his control, he could be top prospect with a plus fastball and plus curve.
8) Nick Kingham--RHP--21--A+ (11)
Kingham has gotten off to a great start in 2013, with a 2.95 ERA in 39.2 IP. The most impressive part of his season is his 6.71 K:BB ratio, showing great command and control of his pitches. With a potential for three above average pitches, we could see Kingham move up to AA midway through the year.
9) Kyle McPherson--RHP--25--AAA (7)
McPherson battled for a spot in the major league rotation to begin the year, but is now battling injury and is currently on the AAA DL. He has an upside of a number three starter, but at this point it is more likely he will be a number four or five starter. He should get some time in the majors this year if he is healthy, and that could be in the rotation or out of the bullpen.
10) Barrett Barnes--OF--21--A (8)
Barnes is another player that has battled injuries for most of the season to this point, as he is also currently on the DL. He didn't do much with the bat when he did play, but has the potential to be a good power/speed player who could hit 20-25 homers a year with 20-25 stolen bases.
11) Tony Sanchez--C--25--AAA (14)
The former first round pick looks like he is finally getting back into his offensive groove, with an OPS of .829 so far in AAA this year, albeit in 78 at bats. The power has been there so far with a .449 slugging percentage, which has been a major concern over the past few years. Defense has never been a problem for Sanchez, so his offense will dictate where he ends up in the future.
12) Stolmy Pimentel--RHP--23--AA (23)
Pimentel has been the best starting pitcher in the Pirates system in 2013, with an ERA of 1.99 in his first seven starts. His ERA was 0.74 after his first six starts, but he allowed six runs in his seventh start. His slider has been very effective this year, and his fastball has been clocked in the mid-high 90's at points, giving him a great two pitch mix. His control hasn't been good, with a 4.6 BB/9, but he's not letting up a lot of hits and keeping his WHIP relatively low, at 1.25. The Pirates may keep him in AA for more starts, as this will allow him to gain confidence.
13) Victor Black--RHP--25--AAA (19)
Black has emerged as the top relief prospect in the Pirates system, especially with Justin Wilson and Bryan Morris now seemingly full-time major leaguers. Black has a 2.57 ERA in 21 IP, along with a fantastic 13.3 K/9 rate and 1.10 WHIP. He has continued to struggle with his control with a 4.7 BB/9, but he is only allowing 5.1 H/9, so the walks won't hurt him as much. With an upper 90's fastball and plus slider, Black could be a very good closer in the future.
14) Clay Holmes--RHP--20--A (9)
A major question coming into the year was Holmes' control, and he has really struggled with his control this year, with a 7.3 BB/9. He's pairing that bad control with giving up a good amount of hits, with a 9.6 H/9, which has led to an inflated WHIP of 1.87. He's also not striking anyone out, with a 4.9 K/9. He has a good fastball and good slurve, so he will see improvement on those numbers as the season progresses. If he can improve on his control and command, Holmes could be a number two or three starter in the future.
15) Jordy Mercer--SS--26--AAA (18)
In my opinion, if Barmes doesn't pick it up offensively over the next few weeks, Mercer should be getting the majority of starts at shortstop for the Pirates. He is much better offensively than Barmes, and although Barmes is one of the top defensive shortstops in the majors, Mercer is a competent defender as well. He was hitting for a line of .333/.404/.448 in 96 at bats at AAA before being called up, with an .852 OPS. He recently had a two homer game against the Mets, displaying his above average power for a middle infielder. With his offensive ability and defensive ability, he should have no problem handling a starting job in the majors.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.
2013 preview rankings in parenthesis
1) Gerrit Cole--RHP--22--AAA (1)
Cole has a very good ERA this year at 2.23, but there have been concerns about his walk rate, which is currently at 4.7 BB/9, and his strikeout rate, which is at 6.4 K/9. Still, Cole boasts the best arsenal of pitches in all of minor league baseball, and possesses good control, so those numbers will improve. We should see Cole move up to Pittsburgh sometime in June.
2) Jameson Taillon--RHP--21--AA (2)
Taillon has put up good numbers across the board this year, with an ERA of 3.26, a 1.29 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, and a 3.0 BB/9. With a plus fastball and plus curve, Taillon can improve on those numbers and should be up in Indianapolis at some point this season. It is doubtful Taillon will see any time in Pittsburgh this year.
3) Luis Heredia--RHP--18--A (3)
Heredia has yet to pitch this year in games that count, as the Pirates have held him in extended spring training. It is mid-May now, so we should see Heredia begin his career in low-A soon enough. With a potential plus fastball, curve, and change, Heredia has an enormous upside.
4) Gregory Polanco--OF--21--A+ (4)
Polanco has had a pretty similar season so far as he did last year, with his strikeout and walk rates almost identical to what they were in 2012. He's hitting the ball hard consistently, getting on base at a good rate, and is taking advantage when he is on base, with 13 steals to this point. A potential 5-tool talent, he could move up to AA at some point this year.
5) Josh Bell--OF--20--A (6)
Bell missed most of the 2012 season with a knee injury, but he has shown that that hasn't really affected him so far. He has put up a batting line of .291/.349/.515, with an OPS of .864, six home runs, and 34 RBI in 134 at bats. Bell has potential plus power from both sides of the plate along with the ability to hit for a good average and get on base, but may stay in low-A for most, if not all, of the 2013 season.
6) Alen Hanson--SS--20--A+ (5)
Hanson broke into the top prospect scene after a great April last year, but has not gotten off to a similar hot start in 2012. After 135 at bats, he has an OPS of .643, displaying none of the power that he showed last year. He also has struggled at shortstop, starting the year with ten errors in his first ten games. But, it is still early in the season and Hanson has plenty of time to pick up his game. As the best shortstop prospect in the system, Pirates fans hope he picks it up very soon.
7) Tyler Glasnow--RHP--19--A (12)
Glasnow came into the year as one of my potential breakout prospects after a good 2012 season in rookie ball, and he has carried that performance into 2013. He has an ERA of 1.80, 1.12 WHIP, and an 11.9 K/9 in 25 IP. Those are great numbers, but he has struggled with his control so far, with a 6.1 BB/9. If he can harness his control, he could be top prospect with a plus fastball and plus curve.
8) Nick Kingham--RHP--21--A+ (11)
Kingham has gotten off to a great start in 2013, with a 2.95 ERA in 39.2 IP. The most impressive part of his season is his 6.71 K:BB ratio, showing great command and control of his pitches. With a potential for three above average pitches, we could see Kingham move up to AA midway through the year.
9) Kyle McPherson--RHP--25--AAA (7)
McPherson battled for a spot in the major league rotation to begin the year, but is now battling injury and is currently on the AAA DL. He has an upside of a number three starter, but at this point it is more likely he will be a number four or five starter. He should get some time in the majors this year if he is healthy, and that could be in the rotation or out of the bullpen.
10) Barrett Barnes--OF--21--A (8)
Barnes is another player that has battled injuries for most of the season to this point, as he is also currently on the DL. He didn't do much with the bat when he did play, but has the potential to be a good power/speed player who could hit 20-25 homers a year with 20-25 stolen bases.
11) Tony Sanchez--C--25--AAA (14)
The former first round pick looks like he is finally getting back into his offensive groove, with an OPS of .829 so far in AAA this year, albeit in 78 at bats. The power has been there so far with a .449 slugging percentage, which has been a major concern over the past few years. Defense has never been a problem for Sanchez, so his offense will dictate where he ends up in the future.
12) Stolmy Pimentel--RHP--23--AA (23)
Pimentel has been the best starting pitcher in the Pirates system in 2013, with an ERA of 1.99 in his first seven starts. His ERA was 0.74 after his first six starts, but he allowed six runs in his seventh start. His slider has been very effective this year, and his fastball has been clocked in the mid-high 90's at points, giving him a great two pitch mix. His control hasn't been good, with a 4.6 BB/9, but he's not letting up a lot of hits and keeping his WHIP relatively low, at 1.25. The Pirates may keep him in AA for more starts, as this will allow him to gain confidence.
13) Victor Black--RHP--25--AAA (19)
Black has emerged as the top relief prospect in the Pirates system, especially with Justin Wilson and Bryan Morris now seemingly full-time major leaguers. Black has a 2.57 ERA in 21 IP, along with a fantastic 13.3 K/9 rate and 1.10 WHIP. He has continued to struggle with his control with a 4.7 BB/9, but he is only allowing 5.1 H/9, so the walks won't hurt him as much. With an upper 90's fastball and plus slider, Black could be a very good closer in the future.
14) Clay Holmes--RHP--20--A (9)
A major question coming into the year was Holmes' control, and he has really struggled with his control this year, with a 7.3 BB/9. He's pairing that bad control with giving up a good amount of hits, with a 9.6 H/9, which has led to an inflated WHIP of 1.87. He's also not striking anyone out, with a 4.9 K/9. He has a good fastball and good slurve, so he will see improvement on those numbers as the season progresses. If he can improve on his control and command, Holmes could be a number two or three starter in the future.
15) Jordy Mercer--SS--26--AAA (18)
In my opinion, if Barmes doesn't pick it up offensively over the next few weeks, Mercer should be getting the majority of starts at shortstop for the Pirates. He is much better offensively than Barmes, and although Barmes is one of the top defensive shortstops in the majors, Mercer is a competent defender as well. He was hitting for a line of .333/.404/.448 in 96 at bats at AAA before being called up, with an .852 OPS. He recently had a two homer game against the Mets, displaying his above average power for a middle infielder. With his offensive ability and defensive ability, he should have no problem handling a starting job in the majors.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.
Thursday, April 25, 2013
Is the MLB Unfair?
Is America’s pastime unfair? Are some teams at a disadvantage when compared to other teams? Over the years, the MLB has become the most unfair major professional sport in America, and is clearly more favorable to certain teams. There are many causes to these advantages, including the payroll flexibility of teams, the new collective bargaining agreement that limits teams’ abilities to add amateur talent, and the separations of the markets and revenues between teams . Unlike the NHL or NFL, the MLB does not have a salary cap, so teams are basically free to spend whatever they want to acquire talent, unless it’s with amatuer talent. This problem could easily be fixed in the near future, but action is needed from the the MLB itself, especially commissioner Bud Selig. But if the league remains as it is, the MLB will continue to favor teams that have the ability to spend, and leave the rest of the teams trying to catch up.
In 2013, MLB payrolls will total over $3 billion. That’s an average of over $100 million for the 30 teams in the league. Fourteen teams are over that $100 million mark, while nine teams are under $81 million. The New York Yankees, with a payroll of $228,995,945, have the highest payroll in the major leagues. In contrast, the Houston Astros have the lowest payroll at $24,328,538. That’s a separation of $204,667,407, which could fund over eight Astros teams. How can a team like the Astros compete against a team that can pay over $200 million more to players that have proven they can perform? The top five payrolls in the majors are the Yankees at approximately $229.0 million, the Dodgers at $216.3 million, the Phillies at $159.6 million, the Red Sox at $159.0 million, and the Tigers at $149.0 million. The separation between the top five teams and the bottom five is also staggering, with the lowest payrolls being the Astros at $24.3 million, the Marlins at $39.4 million, the Rays at $57.0 million, the Pirates at $66.3 million, and the A’s at $68.6 million. Over the past fifteen years, these separations have been very evident in the World Series matchups. Out of the thirty different teams that have made the World Series in the past fifteen years, twenty six of these teams were in the top fifteen payrolls. Seventeen of those 26 teams were in the top ten payrolls. For the fifteen teams that won the World Series, all but one of them were in the top fifteen payrolls, with nine of those teams being in the top ten. Basically, teams that are in the bottom half of the league in payroll have virtually no chance of winning the World Series title, or even competing for it. Players take notice of this, and pounce on the opportunity to make more money, along with a better chance to win. As a free agent, teams will be much more attractive when they can pay you $20 million a year and give you a great chance at the playoffs this year when opposed to the team that would have trouble offering you $12 million a year, with an outside shot of making the playoffs in a few years. This makes it very hard for smaller market teams to bring in talent to contend, and with the limitations of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, talent acquisition is very difficult for teams that can’t spend the big bucks.
Major League teams can spend any amount of money they want for players, as long as they have the resources to do so, and that has been very evident in the last few years. In 2008, the New York Yankees signed Alex Rodriguez to a ten year, $275 Million extension. In 2012, thirteen different players were making over $20 million. It’s important to note that the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) came into effect during the 2012 season. This new CBA limits teams’ spending ability when they are dealing with amateur talent, whether that be in the draft or in the international player market. With amateur talent, there are now pools in which teams are slotted a specific amount of money that they can spend on a draft pick or international free agent. For example, in the 2012 draft the Houston Astros had a slot amount of $7.2 Million for the first pick, and the New York Yankees had a $1.6 Million slot for the 30th overall selection. If teams exceed these slots, they are harshly punished with taxes and/or loss of a draft pick. If a team exceeds its slot by 5%, it is taxed 75% on the overage. When a team spends 5-10% over its slot amount, it is taxed 75% and loses a first round draft pick, and when they spend 10-15% over slot, they are taxed 100% and lose a first and second round pick. The most severe penalty occurs for anything over 15%, and in this case teams are taxed 100% and lose their next two first round picks. A major example of how the new CBA will limit teams’ ability to acquire amateur talent can be seen with the Pittsburgh Pirates situation in the 2012 draft. Mark Appel, arguably the best talent in the draft, fell to the Pirates, who had the eighth overall selection because of his signing bonus demands. The Pirates had a slot of $2.9 Million for that pick, which is much less than the $7.2 Million slot Appel could’ve received if he went number one overall. The Pirates offered Appel $3.8 Million, the most they could without losing a future first round pick, but he didn’t sign in order to receive more money in the next draft. This is just the first example of the new CBA where a team cannot afford to pay the top available talent in the draft without being penalized. The Los Angeles Angels can spend $240 Million on Albert Pujols without any penalties, but the Pirates can’t spend over $3.8 without being taxed and losing a future first round draft pick. The MLB claimed they tried to even the playing field with the new spending limits in the draft, but teams have never been farther apart. The markets of teams only furthers this separation.
There are thirty different teams in Major League Baseball, meaning there are thirty different markets. A few teams have the same city that they claim as their homes, including the Yankees and Mets in New York, the Cubs and White Sox in Chicago, and the Dodgers and Angels in Los Angeles. Not surprisingly, those are the three biggest cities in the nation population wise. The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, and Angels are the only teams with media markets over ten million people, with the Los Angeles teams over fifteen million people and the New York teams over twenty million. Ten teams have markets with five to ten million people, six teams have markets between three to five million, and the remaining ten teams have less than three million in their media markets. Out of the last fifteen World Series winners, eleven have been in the top fifteen markets in the league, with eight of those being in the top ten. Only two of the World Series winners came while in the bottom ten markets. Both of those winning teams were the St. Louis Cardinals, meaning only one team in the bottom ten markets in the past fifteen years has won a World Series title. Having a larger market gives MLB teams the opportunity for more revenue, which they can use to add talented and expensive players to their payrolls. The New York Yankees, with the largest market in the majors, had a revenue of $471 Million in 2012, $135 Million more than the Boston Red Sox, the second largest revenue team, and $304 Million more than the Tampa Bay Rays, the team with the lowest payroll. A large portion of these revenues comes from the teams’ TV deals, and no deal will have more of an effect or give a larger advantage than that of the Los Angeles Dodgers. This deal with Time Warner Cable, which was made official in early 2013, will give the Dodgers between $6-7 Billion over the next twenty five years. That means the Dodgers could earn $280 Million per year over that time, and when added to the revenue that comes from ticket sales, stadium advertisements, team apparel sales, and many other sources that generate income, the Dodgers basically have unlimited resources to go and sign players or take on a player’s salary in a trade. Many teams don’t have this luxury of a major TV deal, as at least seven teams receive $20 Million a year or less from their local TV deals. Lower revenue leads to lower resources to obtain quality major league players, and with the large separations in team revenues and proven success of teams who can spend more money, smaller market teams are left looking for ways to stay in competition.
There is a growing disparity between teams in the MLB, and the league has to act on this situation quickly before teams begin to take advantage of the differences on a larger scale than they already have. The league has tried to address this problem recently in the new CBA by evening each team’s chance of acquiring amateur talent, but that has only handicapped the main manner in which small market teams can truly add top-end talent. A simple solution to the problem that the MLB faces can be found in every other major sports league: A salary cap. A salary cap would put a limit on what teams can spend, while giving smaller market teams a chance at signing quality talent for cheaper prices. Teams like the Yankees or Dodgers wouldn’t be able to give multiple players over $20 million a year, so these players would have to lower their price demands, which would allow teams with lesser revenues to jump into the bidding for their services. It would make sense to have a cap around $130-150 Million, as twenty three teams have payrolls below $130 Million, and four teams have payrolls that exceed $150 million. Not only will this salary cap give more teams the ability to add talent through free agency and trades, it will avoid player salary demands from increasing more than they already have. The MLB average player salary in 2012 was at a record $3,440,000, up from the $1,441,406 average in 1998, which is a 139% increase. Also, within this solution the league must lessen the limitations on draft spending. The pools would remain, as it is logical to assume that teams with higher draft picks will spend more money to sign their players. But, the taxes on the overages must be lessened so teams aren’t forced to stray away from drafting the best available talent for economic purposes, as we saw with the Mark Appel situation in the 2012 draft. The team with the first pick, and therefore the highest bonus pools, should be allotted 10% of the league’s salary cap, which would be somewhere between $13-15 Million. Adding a salary cap and lessening draft limitations will not eliminate the advantages larger market teams have over smaller market teams, as teams with larger revenues will still be able to allocate their resources in other ways, including their scouting and player development departments. But, the salary cap and lesser draft limitations will allow more teams to have the opportunity to add and keep talent moving into the future.
As it stands today, Major League Baseball is not a fair league. Teams that are in larger markets use their resources to their advantage by adding expensive players that have proven success, and this has led these teams to win the majority of the World Series titles over the past fifteen years. Large payrolls, the collective bargaining agreement that limits teams’ ability to add amateur talent, and the separation of markets and revenues between teams have led certain teams to gain an advantage over their competitors. These advantages can be limited, however, by simply adding a salary cap and lessing the draft spending limitations. These actions won’t eliminate the problems within the league, but they will give small market teams a chance to add the talent that they couldn’t add in the past. The economic advantages that large market teams are able to enjoy will never go away, but they can be limited, and that will open a world of opportunities to teams that haven’t had the resources to stay in competition.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment section below
Friday, April 19, 2013
2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects Preview
Pirates General Manager Neal Huntington has been through five years now, including five drafts and five international signing periods. He began his tenure with one of the worst minor league systems in baseball, and now has one of the most talented systems in baseball. However, all that talent and all the money spent has yielded very little at the major league level, as the Pirates' losing streak continues. In fact, Phil Irwin's major league debut on April 14th, 2013 marks the first start for a pitcher taken in any of Huntington's five drafts. Regardless, the Pirates do currently have one of the top systems in all of baseball, consistently being ranked in the top ten. Pirates fans have been waiting for "the future" for a long time now, and it just hasn't seemed to come yet. That being said, let's take a look at the future with my April version of the top 30 prospects in the Pittsburgh Pirates organization, along with potential breakout prospects, the top five prospects at each position, the top five closest to the MLB, and the 2017 projected lineup an rotation.
TOP 30 PROSPECTS
1) Gerrit Cole--RHP--22 years old--AAA
Pirates fans won't have to wait much longer for the 2011 number one overall draft pick to arrive in Pittsburgh. Drawing comparisons to Justin Verlander, Cole has three plus pitches with his upper 90's fastball that has reached 101 MPH, a hard breaking upper 80's slider that has touched 92 MPH, and an upper 80's changeup with good fade. He also mixes in a low 90's two seamer with great movement, and a low 80's slurve. He may have the best arsenal in all of minor league baseball, and we can expect to see him in June or July.
2) Jameson Taillon--RHP--21--AA
Taillon impressed a lot of people with a very good start against Team USA while pitching for Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic. Taillon has a plus fastball in the mid 90's along with a great curveball in the low 80's that can be his best pitch. He also has a developing changeup and a good two seamer that he brought back in 2012. Along with Cole, Taillon has the upside of a number one starter, and these two could combine to be one of the best pitching duos in the game.
3) Luis Heredia--RHP--18--A
Heredia had a great season in 2012 as a 17 year old facing mostly players who were drafted out of college. He posted a 2.71 ERA in 66.1 IP, along with an impressive 1.10 WHIP. He throws mostly in the 91-94 MPH range, but has reached the upper 90's in spring training last year. He has the potential for a plus curve and plus changeup in the future, and his enormous upside has drawn him comparisons to Felix Hernandez.
4) Gregory Polanco--CF--21--A+
Polanco had a great breakout season in 2012, with a line of .325/.388/.522, with a .910 OPS, 16 home runs, and 40 stolen bases. He is a true five-tool talent, making consistent hard contact and using his plus speed and arm to play great defense in center field. Polanco is now one of the top prospects in baseball, and could improve his stock even more with a similar season in 2013.
5) Alen Hanson--SS--20--A+
Along with Polanco, Hanson had a breakout season in 2012. He started off hot, hitting over .400 in April, then cooled off a bit, but still hit .309 with a .909 OPS, 16 home runs, and 35 stolen bases. Hanson had hit decently in the past, so he wasn't as big of a surprise as Polanco. The main question with Hanson is whether he will be able to stay at shortstop or not. He has been very inconsistent defensively at the position, with 40 errors in 103 games in 2012 (along with 10 in 10 games this year). The Pirates haven't had a good offensive shortstop for years, and Hanson could be that guy if he can stick at the position.
6) Josh Bell--OF--20--A
Signed for the biggest bonus out of the first round in draft history back in 2011, Bell was ranked as the #60 prospect by Baseball America. However, after only 62 at bats in 2012, Bell went down for the rest of the season with a knee injury. Bell is a switch hitter with potential plus power from both sides of the plate, and could end up a .300 hitter with around 30 homers a year one day. He will go back to Low-A West Virginia, but should move up to High-A at some point this season.
7) Kyle McPherson--RHP--25--AAA
McPherson was one of two main competitors along with Jeff Locke for the Pirates' rotation coming into spring training, but struggled a little and was ultimately sent to AAA to begin the season. McPherson experienced a great stint at the major league level at the end of the 2012 season, putting up a 2.73 ERA in 26.1 IP, along with three starts. McPherson's calling card is his control, with a 1.6 BB/9 in parts of seven seasons in the minors. He also has a good three pitch mix, with a solid changup and good curve, along with a fastball that sits 92-94 MPH. McPherson could become a full time member of the Pirates rotation at some point in 2013.
8) Barrett Barnes--OF--21--A
Barnes was drafted in the Supplemental round of the 2012 draft, and therefore was the Pirates highest signed draft pick after first round pick Mark Appel decided to go back to college. He has plus raw power and good speed, and could end up a 20 homer, 20 stolen base player in the future. He has the ability to play center field, but with McCutchen and Marte on the team for many more years, Barnes will have to shift over to a corner outfield spot, but his bat should play well there.
9) Clay Holmes--RHP--20--A
Drafted in the ninth round of the 2011 draft, Holmes signed a very over-slot deal at $1.2 Million. He lived up to that bonus last year with a 2.28 ERA in 59.1 IP at short-season State College last year. He didn't allow many hits, with a 1.08 WHIP, but didn't strike out many (5.2 K/9) and walked a little too many (4.4 BB/9). He has a fastball at 90-95 MPH and a slurvy breaking ball that can act as a plus pitch at times. He also features a developing changeup, and could eventually become a number two or three starter in the majors.
10) Justin Wilson--LHP--25--MLB
Wilson will start the year in the major league bullpen, but has almost exclusively been a starter in the minor leagues, except for a couple bullpen stints at the end of the last two seasons. He has great stuff, which is evidenced by his 9.2 K/9 and 6.0 H/9 last year in 135.2 IP at AAA, but has always had control and command issues, which is shown by his career 4.5 BB/9 in the minors. He throws a fastball 92-96 MPH out of the rotation, and can hit the upper 90's when he's in the bullpen. He has the ability to be a decent major league starter in the future, but will most likely remain in the bullpen as a late innings reliever.
11) Nick Kingham--RHP--21--A+
Kingham was a fourth round pick in 2010, and had a fantastic first year in Short season A-ball in 2011, with a 2.15 ERA in 71 IP. He really struggled with his first five starts in his jump to full season ball in 2012, but bounced back with a solid final few months that lowered his ERA to 4.39. An encouraging sign was that his K/9 rose to 8.3 in 2012, up from 6.0 in 2011, along with continued good control. He has a fastball that can reach the mid 90's, but sits 90-93. His curveball and changeup also have the chances to be above average pitches. He has a workhorse body at 6'5, 220 pounds, and could be a solid number three starter.
12) Tyler Glasnow--RHP--19--A
Glasnow shot up eight inches to 6'7 during his high school career, which led to the Pirates drafting him as another projectable pitcher who has the chance to add velocity in the future. The future came pretty soon for Glasnow, who now has the ability to pitch in the mid 90's, and has reportedly hit 98 MPH. He matches that fastball with a plus curveball with good late break, a good two-seamer, and a developing changeup. Control has been a problem for him in the past, but if he learns to command his pitches and continues to develop, he has the upside of a good number two starter.
13) Alex Dickerson--1B--23--AA
Dickerson is a bat-first first baseman who has above average power, although the power hasn't shown up as much as the Pirates would like it too. Dickerson hit 13 home runs in 488 at bats last year, along with a .295 average and an OPS of .803. It was a down hitting year in the Florida State League, as those numbers allowed him to win the league's Player of the Year. His bat will dictate if he ends up in the majors, and if everything goes right he could be a .280 hitter with 25-30 homers a year in the majors.
14) Tony Sanchez--C--25--AAA
Sanchez has been one of the most disappointing prospects in the Pirates organization, as he was once the #46 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America. That was before 2011, when he began his two straight seasons of disappointing offense. His power was way down in 2011 with a .318 Slugging percentage at AA, but picked it up a bit in 2012 with a .408 slugging percentage at AAA. He is an above average defender, which will allow him to reach the majors at some point, but unless he rediscovers his ability to hit, he will be nothing more than a backup at the major league level. He is currently the number three catcher on the Pirates depth chart.
15) Dilson Herrera--2B--19--A
Herrera has the chance to be this year's Alen Hanson, as he has all the tools to be a breakout prospect, and had success offensively in Rookie-ball. Herrera put up some impressive numbers in the rookie level Gulf Coast League last year, with a line of .281/.341/.482, along with seven home runs, 11 stolen bases, and an .823 OPS in 227 at bats. He should be at least average defensively at second base as he progresses, but it will be his bat that could allow him to be one of the top prospects in the Pirates systems.
16) Bryan Morris--RHP--26--AAA
The only remaining player from the Jason Bay trade back in 2008, Morris has had a very up and down career. He was drafted in the first round as a starter, got inured, got traded, struggled, did great, did ok, got moved to the bullpen, did great, and is now stuck at AAA. Morris is a great bullpen arm, with a mid 90's fastball and a great curveball. He should be up with the Pirates now, but was granted a fourth option and is currently at AAA, which he has outgrown.
17) Wyatt Mathison--C--19--A
Mathison was drafted as a catcher, but played mostly shortstop in high school due to his athleticism. He still has a chance to be a good defender behind the plate, as well as an above average hitter as well. He was rated by Baseball America as the top high school catching prospect in the 2012 draft, and the Pirates were able to get him in the second round. He has a good arm, throwing out 36 percent of potential base stealers in 2012 in the GCL. He has the chance to develop at least average power in the future and could post a solid average as well.
18) Jordy Mercer--SS--26--AAA
There was a big question that surrounded Mercer last year: "Where is he?". This was because the Pirates had called Mercer up, but rarely played him, despite his offensive success in the minors and the fact that Clint Barmes had an OPS below .600. Mercer is solid defensively at short, and has the ability to be an above average offensive player at the position. He won't hit for a high average, but with a full season of work at the majors he could post about a .260-.265 average with around 15 home runs.
19) Victor Black--RHP--25--AAA
Black was drafted in the supplemental first round of the 2009 draft, but didn't live up to his hype until last season. In 2012, he posted a 1.65 ERA in 60 IP, with a 12.8 K/9 and 1.15 WHIP. Control has been a problem in his career, and that continued in 2012, with a 4.4 BB/9. Black has a plus fastball that sits 96-98 MPH, touching 99, and pairs that with a plus slider. If he can improve his control a little, he could be a future option for closer with the Pirates, and that future may not be far away.
20) Jose Osuna--1B--20--A+
Osuna opened some eyes with his performance in the rookie level Gulf Coast League in 2011, with a batting line of .331/.400/.511 in 178 at bats, with four homers and a .911 OPS. He followed that up in 2012 with a line of .280/.324/.454 in 482 at bats, with 16 homers and a .779 OPS. Osuna is a bat-first first baseman, so his offensive production will determine how far he goes. He has the chance to hit for good power in the future along with a solid average, and he is only 20 years old so there is ample time for his bat to develop.
21) Willy Garcia--OF--20--A+
Garcia was in a similar position as Gregory Polanco heading into 2012, a player who has the chance to be a five-tool talent, but hadn't yet put it all together. Garcia didn't have the same breakout season that Polanco had, but some positives can be pulled from his performance. In his first full season, Garcia led the minor league system with 18 home runs, and he did this at only 19 years old. However, he struggled with pitch recognition, which led to a 28.5 strikeout rate, which he will need to improve in the future in order to advance in the system. He has some impressive pop, and he has the potential to be this year's breakout prospect.
22) Matt Curry--1B--24--AA
Curry is another bat-first first baseman in the Pirates system, but at this point his offensive potential is behind those of Dickerson and Osuna. Curry has spent the majority of 2011 and 2012 in AA, putting up OPS's of .694 and .832, respectively. He will return there to begin 2013 because he is being blocked by Matt Hague and Jerry Sands at the AAA. He will also share time at first with Dickerson, though Dickerson will get plenty of time in the outfield as well. Curry could be a .280 hitter with around 15-20 homers in the majors one day, but will most likely end up as a bench option.
23) Stolmy Pimentel--RHP--23--AA
Pimentel came to the Pirates in the Joel Hanrahan trade, after struggling at the AA level in 166 IP at the level between 2011 and 2012, posting a 5.96 ERA. Pimentel picked it up a little in 2012 with a 4.59 ERA, and the potential is still there for him. He has the ability to pitch in the mid to upper 90's, but is more effective when he throws 91-94 with his two seamer. He has a slider that can also work as a cutter, along with a good changeup. Pimentel has started out very well in 2013 at AA, with zero earned runs in his first two starts. If things go right for Pimentel, he could end up as a number three starter in the future.
24) Ivan De Jesus--2B/SS--26--AAA
De Jesus was another part of the Joel Hanrahan trade, and was basically a trade-off for Brock Holt. De Jesus has good contact ability, but like Holt, he doesn't have much power. Including this year, De Jesus has a .302 career average in parts of four seasons at the AAA, with an OPS of .770. He will play mostly second base for the AAA Indians this year, where he may be better suited in the future. But, with Neil Walker presumably with the club for many more years, the only chance De Jesus will get at the major league level is at shortstop.
25) Max Moroff--SS--20--A
Moroff was drafted in the 16th round of the 2012 draft, but is talented enough to be drafted higher. The Pirates were able to sign him because of the fact that the team couldn't sign first rounder Mark Appel. Moroff has the potential to be a two-way player in the future, a solid defensive shortstop who can hit as well. He has an advanced bat for his age, and has displayed great plate patience in the past and the beginning of the 2013 season. He has the chance to be a big breakout player in 2013, and the Pirates could definitely use another good, young shortstop prospect.
26) Phil Irwin--RHP--26--AAA
Irwin wasn't much of a prospect until 2012, where he proved that he could have success against upper level hitters. Last year he had a 2.83 ERA in 130.1 IP across A+, AA, and AAA, with most of his time coming at the AA level. He's displayed great control in his minor league career with a 1.6 BB/9, along with good strikeout numbers at a 8.0 K/9 rate. He doesn't have much of a fastball, but he has a very interesting curveball which can easliy be a plus pitch. He also has a sinker that he relies on early in the count. He will start the year at the AAA, but has already made a spot start in the majors and is definitely an option to make more spot starts in the future. If he continues his upper level success, he could be a number five starter in the majors.
27) Jin-De Jhang--C--20--A-
Jhang was signed out of Taiwan in 2011 for a $250,000 signing bonus, and a major reason for that bonus was Jhang's intriguing bat. He makes consistent hard contact, lines balls to the gap, and walks a good amount while not striking out much at all. Also, he has a strong arm, throwing out 29% of base runners last year in the GCL. He's built big, at 5'11", 200 pounds, but if he can maintain his conditioning he will have the chance to be a good two-way catcher in the future. He should battle with Wyatt Mathison for playing time at catcher for the next few years.
28) Adrian Sampson--RHP--21--A+
Sampson was drafted in the fifth round of the 2012 draft, and had immediate success with the short season State College Spikes. He put up a 2.95 ERA in 42.2 innings, working mostly off of his strong fastball-curveball combo. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, and can reach 94 MPH during his outings. His curve breaks late and sharply, making it difficult for hitters to recognize the pitch. He began working on a changeup last season because he didn't have much need for the pitch in the past. He skipped over Low-A to start the season, so the Pirates must think a lot of him, and he should be a good pitcher to watch in Bradenton this season.
29) Stetson Allie--1B--22--A
Allie wasn't originally going to be on this list, but after such a strong start at the plate, I couldn't resist. Allie was drafted as a pitcher, but spent most of his time in high school as a power hitting third baseman. After his pitching career didn't pan out as expected, the Pirates decided to move Allie back to being a hitter, where he had the chance to be a third-fifth round draft pick. He may have the best raw power in the system, and the West Virginia Power manager went as far to say it was an 80 on the 20-80 scale. Allie has gotten off to an amazing start this year, with a line of .407/.478/.780, with six home runs, 18 RBI, and an OPS of 1.258 in 59 at bats. A big problem with Allie is his plate patience, and that has continued into this year, with a 25.4% strikeout rate so far. But, he is drawing more walks and four of his fifteen strikeouts came in his first game. If he can continue hitting for power and improve his plate patience, he could be a great prospect.
30) Adalberto Santos--UTLY--25--AA
Not a lot of people see Santos as a legitimate prospect, but you can't ignore the fact that the lowest average he has posted in a season is .314 at A+ in 2011. So far in 262 AA at bats, Santos has a .347 average, along with an .886 OPS. He doesn't hit for any power, but he gets on base at a great rate, and doesn't strike out much. He's played mostly outfield in his career, but was drafted as a second baseman and has played exclusively at third so far in 2013. He doesn't have much of a chance to start in the majors in the future, but could be a great utility player who hits for a high average with a great OBP.
10 POTENTIAL BREAKOUT PROSPECTS
Ten players who could take the next step and arrive in the team's top 10 prospects very soon.
-Tyler Glasnow
-Dilson Herrera
-Wyatt Mathison
-Jose Osuna
-Willy Garcia
-Max Moroff
-Jin-De Jhang
-Stetson Allie
-Harold Ramirez
-Eric Wood
TOP 5 PROSPECTS AT EACH POSITION
RHP
1-Gerrit Cole
2-Jameson Taillon4-
3-Luis Heredia
4-Kyle McPherson
5-Clay Holmes
LHP
1-Justin Wilson
2-Andrew Oliver
3-Zack Dodson
4-Orlando Castro
5-Joely Rodriguez
Catcher
1-Tony Sanchez
2-Wyatt Mathison
3-Jin-De Jhang
4-Jacob Stallings
5-Carlos Paulino
First Base
1-Alex Dickerson
2-Jose Osuna
3-Matt Curry
4-Stetson Allie
5-Matt Hague
Second Base
1-Dilson Herrera
2-Ivan De Jesus Jr
3-Jarek Cunningham
4-Dan Gamache
5-Kevin Ross
Third Base
1-Eric Wood
2-Eric Avila
3-Yhonathan Barrios
4-Edwin Espinal
5-D.J. Crumlich
Shortstop
1-Alen Hanson
2-Jordy Mercer
3-Max Moroff
4-Gift Ngoepe
5-Drew Maggi
Outfield
1-Gregory Polanco
2-Josh Bell
3-Barrett Barnes
4-Willy Garcia
5-Adalberto Santos
6-Mel Rojas Jr
7-Harold Ramirez
8-Elvis Escobar
9-Luis Urena
10-Raul Fortunato
5 CLOSEST TO THE MAJORS
-Gerrit Cole
-Kyle McPherson
-Justin Wilson
-Bryan Morris
-Jordy Mercer
2017 PROJECTED LINEUP/ROTATION
LINEUP
1) Alen Hanson-SS
2) Starling Marte-LF
3) Andrew McCutchen-CF
4) Pedro Alvarez-3B
5) Gregory Polanco-RF
6) Neil Walker-2B
7) Alex Dickerson-1B
8) Tony Sanchez-C
Notes: This is made from players that are already in the organization, but it's almost certain some of these positions will be filled by players not in the organization now. The Pirates could have a very fast lineup, with Hanson, Marte, McCutchen, and Polanco all possessing plus speed. 2017 will likely be Alvarez's last year with a team, as he is a free agent after the year and a Scott Boras client, and his players rarely stay with their teams when they hit free agency. Neil Walker should have an extension by this point, and hopefully Marte will as well. I still like Sanchez as a prospect, so I think he edges out Wyatt Mathison for this spot. I also really like Travis Snider, but I also believe Polanco has more upside at this point.
ROTATION
1- Gerrit Cole
2- Jameson Taillon
3- Luis Heredia
4- Kyle McPherson
5- Nick Kingham
Closer- Bryan Morris
Notes: The Pirates have the potential for three top of the rotation starters here, with Cole, Taillon, and Heredia. McPherson has the chance to be one of the better number four starters in the league if he reaches his potential. Kingham wasn't in my top five pitching prospects, but I think he has the safest bet to be in the rotation after McPherson. There are a few other options at closer, including Justin Wilson, Victor Black, and Duke Welker, but with Morris' fastball-curve combo, he could be a great closer. There are some options in the current bullpen, but it is rare for the Pirates to keep their relievers for an extended period of time.
There is always a disclaimer with prospects, as it is always difficult for them to reach their potential. But, the Pirates have a lot of talent at the top of their system, and a lot of players below that who have the talent to become stars. Only time will tell for the Pirates, but if you recall, time hasn't been friendly to the Pirates over the past twenty years.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
Gaby Sanchez vs. Travis Snider
The season has just started, but there is already a great deal of debate about the lineup for the first two games. Coming into spring training and even during spring training, it looked pretty certain that Garrett Jones would get the majority of playing time at first, with Gaby Sanchez getting some starts against lefties, and that Travis Snider would be the starting right fielder. However, the lineups for the first two games featured Jones in right field and Sanchez at first base. This has come as an unwelcome surprise to many fans, as Sanchez was absolutely terrible at the major league level in 2012, posting a .620 OPS in 299 at bats for the Marlins and Pirates. Snider also had his share of struggles at the major league level, with an OPS of .697 in 164 at bats. But, Snider had an OPS of 1.021 at AAA Las Vegas in 2012 while still in the Blue Jays organization.
Let's look at what both players bring to the team.
Gaby Sanchez
Sanchez is a 29 year old first baseman who had his rookie season in 2010 at the age of 26. That year he finished fourth in the rookie of the year voting after hitting for a line of .273/.341/.448, with 19 home runs, 85 RBI, and an OPS of .788. He followed that up in 2011 with a very similar line of .266/.352/.427, with 19 home runs, 78 RBI, and an OPS of .779. He made the All-Star team, but as you can see, those stats are hardly All-Star worthy. In 2012, Sanchez really struggled with the Marlins, with an OPS of .556 in 183 at bats. He spent some time in the minors and was eventually traded to the Pirates in exchange for Gorkys Hernandez and the Pirates' supplemental draft pick, which will be the 35th pick in this year's draft. Sanchez improved with the Pirates, basically becoming an average major league player with an OPS of .720 and an OPS+ of 101 (100 is average) in 116 at bats.
Sanchez had a good spring training in 2013, putting up an OPS of 1.066 in 43 at bats. Spring training stats are largely meaningless, as hitters are facing pitchers who are trying to get a feel for their pitches again, and much of the time aren't throwing their best stuff. Nonetheless, manager Clint Hurdle must have thought enough of those stats to give Sanchez the starting first base job.
Sanchez doesn't necessarily have a bad aspect to his game, but he doesn't have any impressive aspects either, and at 29 years old, doesn't have much room to improve. He can hit for a decent average and about 15-20 home runs, but those are both average to below average for an everyday first baseman who doesn't play great defense. He is a better defender than Garrett Jones, but the offensive upside is not there. If he got the chance to start for the entire season, Sanchez can be expected to hit around .260-.270 with 15-20 home runs. Not a stat line you want to see from your first baseman.
Travis Snider
Snider is a 25 year old former top prospect. He has spent most of his career in the Blue Jays organization, and was acquired for Brad Lincoln around the same time as the Gaby Sanchez acquisition last season. Snider hasn't gotten much of a chance to be an everyday player at the major league level, despite continued success at the AAA level. In his career at AAA, he has a line of .333/.412/.565, with 33 home runs, 155 RBI, and an OPS of .976 in 696 at bats. The most at bats Snider has received at the major league level was in 2010, where he had a line of .255/.304/.463 with 14 homers, 32 RBI, and an OPS of .767. That was Snider's age 22 season, and it came in the always tough AL East. Despite that impressive line, he received only 187 at bats in 2011 and 164 in 2012. It remains to be seen what Snider can do for a full season at the major league level, but there is definitely room to grow, even after two straight season of struggling.
Snider has a good deal of power potential, and although it hasn't been present at the major league level recently, it is evidenced by a .598 slugging percentage at AAA last year. Behind Alvarez and McCutchen, Snider could very well have the best power potential on the team. He also plays a decent right field, and is also more competent than Garrett Jones is at the position.
The main thing with Travis Snider is the potential he still carries with him. Back in 2009, he was rated as the #6 prospect in the minors by Baseball America. Back in November, I wrote a post titled "The Case For Travis Snider", which you can read by clicking the link. It outlines how Travis Snider needs to get the opportunity to play everyday to give him any chance of reaching his potential. That potential is a .280 hitter with 25-35 home runs, which is an All-Star caliber player for a team that could desperately use a power bat to drive in runs.
Coming into 2012, the Pirates had a former top prospect on their hands who had experienced major struggles at the major league level, after having a good half season at the level. The Pirates gave this player a full season of at bats to adjust to the league and prove himself, and that player responded by hitting 30 home runs. That player was Pedro Alvarez, and giving him a full season of at bats seems to have worked out for the Pirates. Travis Snider finds himself in a near identical position in 2013, where a full season of at-bats could really revive his major league career. After the decision to play Alvarez everyday worked out, it would only make sense to give Snider the same opportunity.
Clint Hurdle has made a lot of questionable decisions as the manager of the Pirates, but this could be the most frustrating. The only "argument" for Sanchez at this point is that he had a very good Spring Training. But what does that mean? Matt Hague had an incredible spring in 2012, but couldn't handle major league pitching. Alvarez had a terrible spring in 2012, then followed that with a breakout season. Spring stats really don't correlate with regular season results much of the time, and cannot be used in a valid argument. Basically what we are looking at in the case between Gaby Sanchez vs. Travis Snider is a player who struggled greatly last season who could at best produce average offense, or a player who struggled as well, but could become an All-Star with 30+ home runs. Personally, I'm taking the guy who could hit 30+ home runs, rather than the player who hits 20 in a best case scenario.
Snider could struggle again in 2013, or he see the same success that Pedro Alvarez saw in 2012. But, we will never know unless Snider gets the opportunity to play everyday. If he continues to sit the bench, he will not grow as a player, and will not be able to work on his struggles. The best thing the Pirates can do right now is give Snider the chance to play everyday in right field, and have Garrett Jones platoon with Sanchez at first base. You could also make an argument for a Jose Tabata-Travis Snider platoon in right as well, which I would not be against, as Tabata could use everyday at bats as well.
A lot of Pirates fans agree that Snider should be starting and have voiced their opinions. I just wish Clint Hurdle would agree with us as well.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.
Let's look at what both players bring to the team.
Gaby Sanchez
Sanchez is a 29 year old first baseman who had his rookie season in 2010 at the age of 26. That year he finished fourth in the rookie of the year voting after hitting for a line of .273/.341/.448, with 19 home runs, 85 RBI, and an OPS of .788. He followed that up in 2011 with a very similar line of .266/.352/.427, with 19 home runs, 78 RBI, and an OPS of .779. He made the All-Star team, but as you can see, those stats are hardly All-Star worthy. In 2012, Sanchez really struggled with the Marlins, with an OPS of .556 in 183 at bats. He spent some time in the minors and was eventually traded to the Pirates in exchange for Gorkys Hernandez and the Pirates' supplemental draft pick, which will be the 35th pick in this year's draft. Sanchez improved with the Pirates, basically becoming an average major league player with an OPS of .720 and an OPS+ of 101 (100 is average) in 116 at bats.
Sanchez had a good spring training in 2013, putting up an OPS of 1.066 in 43 at bats. Spring training stats are largely meaningless, as hitters are facing pitchers who are trying to get a feel for their pitches again, and much of the time aren't throwing their best stuff. Nonetheless, manager Clint Hurdle must have thought enough of those stats to give Sanchez the starting first base job.
Sanchez doesn't necessarily have a bad aspect to his game, but he doesn't have any impressive aspects either, and at 29 years old, doesn't have much room to improve. He can hit for a decent average and about 15-20 home runs, but those are both average to below average for an everyday first baseman who doesn't play great defense. He is a better defender than Garrett Jones, but the offensive upside is not there. If he got the chance to start for the entire season, Sanchez can be expected to hit around .260-.270 with 15-20 home runs. Not a stat line you want to see from your first baseman.
Travis Snider
Snider is a 25 year old former top prospect. He has spent most of his career in the Blue Jays organization, and was acquired for Brad Lincoln around the same time as the Gaby Sanchez acquisition last season. Snider hasn't gotten much of a chance to be an everyday player at the major league level, despite continued success at the AAA level. In his career at AAA, he has a line of .333/.412/.565, with 33 home runs, 155 RBI, and an OPS of .976 in 696 at bats. The most at bats Snider has received at the major league level was in 2010, where he had a line of .255/.304/.463 with 14 homers, 32 RBI, and an OPS of .767. That was Snider's age 22 season, and it came in the always tough AL East. Despite that impressive line, he received only 187 at bats in 2011 and 164 in 2012. It remains to be seen what Snider can do for a full season at the major league level, but there is definitely room to grow, even after two straight season of struggling.
Snider has a good deal of power potential, and although it hasn't been present at the major league level recently, it is evidenced by a .598 slugging percentage at AAA last year. Behind Alvarez and McCutchen, Snider could very well have the best power potential on the team. He also plays a decent right field, and is also more competent than Garrett Jones is at the position.
The main thing with Travis Snider is the potential he still carries with him. Back in 2009, he was rated as the #6 prospect in the minors by Baseball America. Back in November, I wrote a post titled "The Case For Travis Snider", which you can read by clicking the link. It outlines how Travis Snider needs to get the opportunity to play everyday to give him any chance of reaching his potential. That potential is a .280 hitter with 25-35 home runs, which is an All-Star caliber player for a team that could desperately use a power bat to drive in runs.
Coming into 2012, the Pirates had a former top prospect on their hands who had experienced major struggles at the major league level, after having a good half season at the level. The Pirates gave this player a full season of at bats to adjust to the league and prove himself, and that player responded by hitting 30 home runs. That player was Pedro Alvarez, and giving him a full season of at bats seems to have worked out for the Pirates. Travis Snider finds himself in a near identical position in 2013, where a full season of at-bats could really revive his major league career. After the decision to play Alvarez everyday worked out, it would only make sense to give Snider the same opportunity.
Clint Hurdle has made a lot of questionable decisions as the manager of the Pirates, but this could be the most frustrating. The only "argument" for Sanchez at this point is that he had a very good Spring Training. But what does that mean? Matt Hague had an incredible spring in 2012, but couldn't handle major league pitching. Alvarez had a terrible spring in 2012, then followed that with a breakout season. Spring stats really don't correlate with regular season results much of the time, and cannot be used in a valid argument. Basically what we are looking at in the case between Gaby Sanchez vs. Travis Snider is a player who struggled greatly last season who could at best produce average offense, or a player who struggled as well, but could become an All-Star with 30+ home runs. Personally, I'm taking the guy who could hit 30+ home runs, rather than the player who hits 20 in a best case scenario.
Snider could struggle again in 2013, or he see the same success that Pedro Alvarez saw in 2012. But, we will never know unless Snider gets the opportunity to play everyday. If he continues to sit the bench, he will not grow as a player, and will not be able to work on his struggles. The best thing the Pirates can do right now is give Snider the chance to play everyday in right field, and have Garrett Jones platoon with Sanchez at first base. You could also make an argument for a Jose Tabata-Travis Snider platoon in right as well, which I would not be against, as Tabata could use everyday at bats as well.
A lot of Pirates fans agree that Snider should be starting and have voiced their opinions. I just wish Clint Hurdle would agree with us as well.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.
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