Pittsburgh Pirates Top 15 Prospects- May

We are a little over a month into the minor league season, and it is time for the May version of my top 15 prospects in the Pirates system.  As I just stated, we are only a month into the season, so performance shouldn't be a big factor in these rankings, but it cannot be ignored.  Some players are going to be over-performing, some will be under-performing, and some will be meeting expectations.  Other players, like Justin Wilson and Bryan Morris, have graduated to the majors, while prospects like Gerrit Cole, Jordy Mercer, and Victor Black have taken a lot of steps forward to becoming full time major leaguers.  With that being said, let's take a look at my May version of the top 15 prospects in the Pirates system.

2013 preview rankings in parenthesis

1) Gerrit Cole--RHP--22--AAA (1)
Cole has a very good ERA this year at 2.23, but there have been concerns about his walk rate, which is currently at 4.7 BB/9, and his strikeout rate, which is at 6.4 K/9.  Still, Cole boasts the best arsenal of pitches in all of minor league baseball, and possesses good control, so those numbers will improve.  We should see Cole move up to Pittsburgh sometime in June.

2) Jameson Taillon--RHP--21--AA (2)
Taillon has put up good numbers across the board this year, with an ERA of 3.26, a 1.29 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, and a 3.0 BB/9.  With a plus fastball and plus curve, Taillon can improve on those numbers and should be up in Indianapolis at some point this season.  It is doubtful Taillon will see any time in Pittsburgh this year.

3) Luis Heredia--RHP--18--A (3)
Heredia has yet to pitch this year in games that count, as the Pirates have held him in extended spring training.  It is mid-May now, so we should see Heredia begin his career in low-A soon enough.  With a potential plus fastball, curve, and change, Heredia has an enormous upside.

4) Gregory Polanco--OF--21--A+ (4)
Polanco has had a pretty similar season so far as he did last year, with his strikeout and walk rates almost identical to what they were in 2012.  He's hitting the ball hard consistently, getting on base at a good rate, and is taking advantage when he is on base, with 13 steals to this point.  A potential 5-tool talent, he could move up to AA at some point this year.

5) Josh Bell--OF--20--A (6)
Bell missed most of the 2012 season with a knee injury, but he has shown that that hasn't really affected him so far.  He has put up a batting line of .291/.349/.515, with an OPS of .864, six home runs, and 34 RBI in 134 at bats.  Bell has potential plus power from both sides of the plate along with the ability to hit for a good average and get on base, but may stay in low-A for most, if not all, of the 2013 season.

6) Alen Hanson--SS--20--A+ (5)
Hanson broke into the top prospect scene after a great April last year, but has not gotten off to a similar hot start in 2012.  After 135 at bats, he has an OPS of .643, displaying none of the power that he showed last year.  He also has struggled at shortstop, starting the year with ten errors in his first ten games.  But, it is still early in the season and Hanson has plenty of time to pick up his game.  As the best shortstop prospect in the system, Pirates fans hope he picks it up very soon.

7) Tyler Glasnow--RHP--19--A (12)
Glasnow came into the year as one of my potential breakout prospects after a good 2012 season in rookie ball, and he has carried that performance into 2013.  He has an ERA of 1.80, 1.12 WHIP, and an 11.9 K/9 in 25 IP.  Those are great numbers, but he has struggled with his control so far, with a 6.1 BB/9.  If he can harness his control, he could be top prospect with a plus fastball and plus curve.

8) Nick Kingham--RHP--21--A+ (11)
Kingham has gotten off to a great start in 2013, with a 2.95 ERA in 39.2 IP.  The most impressive part of his season is his 6.71 K:BB ratio, showing great command and control of his pitches.  With a potential for three above average pitches, we could see Kingham move up to AA midway through the year.

9) Kyle McPherson--RHP--25--AAA (7)
McPherson battled for a spot in the major league rotation to begin the year, but is now battling injury and is currently on the AAA DL.  He has an upside of a number three starter, but at this point it is more likely he will be a number four or five starter.  He should get some time in the majors this year if he is healthy, and that could be in the rotation or out of the bullpen.

10) Barrett Barnes--OF--21--A (8)
Barnes is another player that has battled injuries for most of the season to this point, as he is also currently on the DL.  He didn't do much with the bat when he did play, but has the potential to be a good power/speed player who could hit 20-25 homers a year with 20-25 stolen bases.

11) Tony Sanchez--C--25--AAA (14)
The former first round pick looks like he is finally getting back into his offensive groove, with an OPS of .829 so far in AAA this year, albeit in 78 at bats.  The power has been there so far with a .449 slugging percentage, which has been a major concern over the past few years.  Defense has never been a problem for Sanchez, so his offense will dictate where he ends up in the future.

12) Stolmy Pimentel--RHP--23--AA (23)
Pimentel has been the best starting pitcher in the Pirates system in 2013, with an ERA of 1.99 in his first seven starts.  His ERA was 0.74 after his first six starts, but he allowed six runs in his seventh start.  His slider has been very effective this year, and his fastball has been clocked in the mid-high 90's at points, giving him a great two pitch mix.  His control hasn't been good, with a 4.6 BB/9, but he's not letting up a lot of hits and keeping his WHIP relatively low, at 1.25.  The Pirates may keep him in AA for more starts, as this will allow him to gain confidence.

13) Victor Black--RHP--25--AAA (19)
Black has emerged as the top relief prospect in the Pirates system, especially with Justin Wilson and Bryan Morris now seemingly full-time major leaguers.  Black has a 2.57 ERA in 21 IP, along with a fantastic 13.3 K/9 rate and 1.10 WHIP.  He has continued to struggle with his control with a 4.7 BB/9, but he is only allowing 5.1 H/9, so the walks won't hurt him as much.  With an upper 90's fastball and plus slider, Black could be a very good closer in the future.

14) Clay Holmes--RHP--20--A (9)
A major question coming into the year was Holmes' control, and he has really struggled with his control this year, with a 7.3 BB/9.  He's pairing that bad control with giving up a good amount of hits, with a 9.6 H/9, which has led to an inflated WHIP of 1.87.  He's also not striking anyone out, with a 4.9 K/9.  He has a good fastball and good slurve, so he will see improvement on those numbers as the season progresses.  If he can improve on his control and command, Holmes could be a number two or three starter in the future.

15) Jordy Mercer--SS--26--AAA (18)
In my opinion, if Barmes doesn't pick it up offensively over the next few weeks, Mercer should be getting the majority of starts at shortstop for the Pirates.  He is much better offensively than Barmes, and although Barmes is one of the top defensive shortstops in the majors, Mercer is a competent defender as well.  He was hitting for a line of .333/.404/.448 in 96 at bats at AAA before being called up, with an .852 OPS.  He recently had a two homer game against the Mets, displaying his above average power for a middle infielder.  With his offensive ability and defensive ability, he should have no problem handling a starting job in the majors.


Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.

Is the MLB Unfair?

Is America’s pastime unfair?  Are some teams at a disadvantage when compared to other teams?  Over the years, the MLB has become the most unfair major professional sport in America, and is clearly more favorable to certain teams.  There are many causes to these advantages, including the payroll flexibility of teams, the new collective bargaining agreement that limits teams’ abilities to add amateur talent, and the separations of the markets and revenues between teams .  Unlike the NHL or NFL, the MLB does not have a salary cap, so teams are basically free to spend whatever they want to acquire talent, unless it’s with amatuer talent.  This problem could easily be fixed in the near future, but action is needed from the the MLB itself, especially commissioner Bud Selig.  But if the league remains as it is, the MLB will continue to favor teams that have the ability to spend, and leave the rest of the teams trying to catch up.

In 2013, MLB payrolls will total over $3 billion.  That’s an average of over $100 million for the 30 teams in the league.  Fourteen teams are over that $100 million mark, while nine teams are under $81 million.  The New York Yankees, with a payroll of $228,995,945, have the highest payroll in the major leagues.  In contrast, the Houston Astros have the lowest payroll at $24,328,538.  That’s a separation of $204,667,407, which could fund over eight Astros teams.  How can a team like the Astros compete against a team that can pay over $200 million more to players that have proven they can perform?  The top five payrolls in the majors are the Yankees at approximately $229.0 million, the Dodgers at $216.3 million, the Phillies at $159.6 million, the Red Sox at $159.0 million, and the Tigers at $149.0 million.  The separation between the top five teams and the bottom five is also staggering, with the lowest payrolls being the Astros at $24.3 million, the Marlins at $39.4 million, the Rays at $57.0 million, the Pirates at $66.3 million, and the A’s at $68.6 million.  Over the past fifteen years, these separations have been very evident in the World Series matchups.  Out of the thirty different teams that have made the World Series in the past fifteen years, twenty six of these teams were in the top fifteen payrolls.  Seventeen of those 26 teams were in the top ten payrolls.  For the fifteen teams that won the World Series, all but one of them were in the top fifteen payrolls, with nine of those teams being in the top ten.  Basically, teams that are in the bottom half of the league in payroll have virtually no chance of winning the World Series title, or even competing for it.  Players take notice of this, and pounce on the opportunity to make more money, along with a better chance to win.  As a free agent, teams will be much more attractive when they can pay you $20 million a year and give you a great chance at the playoffs this year when opposed to the team that would have trouble offering you $12 million a year, with an outside shot of making the playoffs in a few years.  This makes it very hard for smaller market teams to bring in talent to contend, and with the limitations of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, talent acquisition is very difficult for teams that can’t spend the big bucks.

Major League teams can spend any amount of money they want for players, as long as they have the resources to do so, and that has been very evident in the last few years.  In 2008, the New York Yankees signed Alex Rodriguez to a ten year, $275 Million extension.  In 2012, thirteen different players were making over $20 million.  It’s important to note that the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) came into effect during the 2012 season.  This new CBA limits teams’ spending ability when they are dealing with amateur talent, whether that be in the draft or in the international player market.  With amateur talent, there are now pools in which teams are slotted a specific amount of money that they can spend on a draft pick or international free agent.  For example, in the 2012 draft the Houston Astros had a slot amount of $7.2 Million for the first pick, and the New York Yankees had a $1.6 Million slot for the 30th overall selection.  If teams exceed these slots, they are harshly punished with taxes and/or loss of a draft pick.  If a team exceeds its slot by 5%, it is taxed 75% on the overage.  When a team spends 5-10% over its slot amount, it is taxed 75% and loses a first round draft pick, and when they spend 10-15% over slot, they are taxed 100% and lose a first and second round pick.  The most severe penalty occurs for anything over 15%, and in this case teams are taxed 100% and lose their next two first round picks.  A major example of how the new CBA will limit teams’ ability to acquire amateur talent can be seen with the Pittsburgh Pirates situation in the 2012 draft.  Mark Appel, arguably the best talent in the draft, fell to the Pirates, who had the eighth overall selection because of his signing bonus demands.  The Pirates had a slot of $2.9 Million for that pick, which is much less than the $7.2 Million slot Appel could’ve received if he went number one overall.  The Pirates offered Appel $3.8 Million, the most they could without losing a future first round pick, but he didn’t sign in order to receive more money in the next draft.  This is just the first example of the new CBA where a team cannot afford to pay the top available talent in the draft without being penalized.  The Los Angeles Angels can spend $240 Million on Albert Pujols without any penalties, but the Pirates can’t spend over $3.8 without being taxed and losing a future first round draft pick.  The MLB claimed they tried to even the playing field with the new spending limits in the draft, but teams have never been farther apart.  The markets of teams only furthers this separation.  

There are thirty different teams in Major League Baseball, meaning there are thirty different markets.  A few teams have the same city that they claim as their homes, including the Yankees and Mets in New York, the Cubs and White Sox in Chicago, and the Dodgers and Angels in Los Angeles.  Not surprisingly, those are the three biggest cities in the nation population wise.  The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, and Angels are the only teams with media markets over ten million people, with the Los Angeles teams over fifteen million people and the New York teams over twenty million.  Ten teams have markets with five to ten million people, six teams have markets between three to five million, and the remaining ten teams have less than three million in their media markets.  Out of the last fifteen World Series winners, eleven have been in the top fifteen markets in the league, with eight of those being in the top ten.  Only two of the World Series winners came while in the bottom ten markets.  Both of those winning teams were the St. Louis Cardinals, meaning only one team in the bottom ten markets in the past fifteen years has won a World Series title.  Having a larger market gives MLB teams the opportunity for more revenue, which they can use to add talented and expensive players to their payrolls.  The New York Yankees, with the largest market in the majors, had a revenue of $471 Million in 2012, $135 Million more than the Boston Red Sox, the second largest revenue team, and $304 Million more than the Tampa Bay Rays, the team with the lowest payroll.  A large portion of these revenues comes from the teams’ TV deals, and no deal will have more of an effect or give a larger advantage than that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.  This deal with Time Warner Cable, which was made official in early 2013, will give the Dodgers between $6-7 Billion over the next twenty five years.  That means the Dodgers could earn $280 Million per year over that time, and when added to the revenue that comes from ticket sales, stadium advertisements, team apparel sales, and many other sources that generate income, the Dodgers basically have unlimited resources to go and sign players or take on a player’s salary in a trade.  Many teams don’t have this luxury of a major TV deal, as at least seven teams receive $20 Million a year or less from their local TV deals.  Lower revenue leads to lower resources to obtain quality major league players, and with the large separations in team revenues and proven success of teams who can spend more money, smaller market teams are left looking for ways to stay in competition.  

There is a growing disparity between teams in the MLB, and the league has to act on this situation quickly before teams begin to take advantage of the differences on a larger scale than they already have.  The league has tried to address this problem recently in the new CBA by evening each team’s chance of acquiring amateur talent, but that has only handicapped the main manner in which small market teams can truly add top-end talent.  A simple solution to the problem that the MLB faces can be found in every other major sports league: A salary cap.  A salary cap would put a limit on what teams can spend, while giving smaller market teams a chance at signing quality talent for cheaper prices.  Teams like the Yankees or Dodgers wouldn’t be able to give multiple players over $20 million a year, so these players would have to lower their price demands, which would allow teams with lesser revenues to jump into the bidding for their services.  It would make sense to have a cap around $130-150 Million, as twenty three teams have payrolls below $130 Million, and four teams have payrolls that exceed $150 million.  Not only will this salary cap give more teams the ability to add talent through free agency and trades, it will avoid player salary demands from increasing more than they already have.  The MLB average player salary in 2012 was at a record $3,440,000, up from the $1,441,406 average in 1998, which is a 139% increase.  Also, within this solution the league must lessen the limitations on draft spending.  The pools would remain, as it is logical to assume that teams with higher draft picks will spend more money to sign their players.  But, the taxes on the overages must be lessened so teams aren’t forced to stray away from drafting the best available talent for economic purposes, as we saw with the Mark Appel situation in the 2012 draft.  The team with the first pick, and therefore the highest bonus pools, should be allotted 10% of the league’s salary cap, which would be somewhere between $13-15 Million.  Adding a salary cap and lessening draft limitations will not eliminate the advantages larger market teams have over smaller market teams, as teams with larger revenues will still be able to allocate their resources in other ways, including their scouting and player development departments.  But, the salary cap and lesser draft limitations will allow more teams to have the opportunity to add and keep talent moving into the future.

As it stands today, Major League Baseball is not a fair league.  Teams that are in larger markets use their resources to their advantage by adding expensive players that have proven success, and this has led these teams to win the majority of the World Series titles over the past fifteen years.  Large payrolls, the collective bargaining agreement that limits teams’ ability to add amateur talent, and the separation of markets and revenues between teams have led certain teams to gain an advantage over their competitors.  These advantages can be limited, however, by simply adding a salary cap and lessing the draft spending limitations.  These actions won’t eliminate the problems within the league, but they will give small market teams a chance to add the talent that they couldn’t add in the past.  The economic advantages that large market teams are able to enjoy will never go away, but they can be limited, and that will open a world of opportunities to teams that haven’t had the resources to stay in competition.  

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment section below

2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects Preview

Pirates General Manager Neal Huntington has been through five years now, including five drafts and five international signing periods.  He began his tenure with one of the worst minor league systems in baseball, and now has one of the most talented systems in baseball.  However, all that talent and all the money spent has yielded very little at the major league level, as the Pirates' losing streak continues.  In fact, Phil Irwin's major league debut on April 14th, 2013 marks the first start for a pitcher taken in any of Huntington's five drafts.  Regardless, the Pirates do currently have one of the top systems in all of baseball, consistently being ranked in the top ten.  Pirates fans have been waiting for "the future" for a long time now, and it just hasn't seemed to come yet.  That being said, let's take a look at the future with my April version of the top 30 prospects in the Pittsburgh Pirates organization, along with potential breakout prospects, the top five prospects at each position, the top five closest to the MLB, and the 2017 projected lineup an rotation.

TOP 30 PROSPECTS

1) Gerrit Cole--RHP--22 years old--AAA
Pirates fans won't have to wait much longer for the 2011 number one overall draft pick to arrive in Pittsburgh.  Drawing comparisons to Justin Verlander, Cole has three plus pitches with his upper 90's fastball that has reached 101 MPH, a hard breaking upper 80's slider that has touched 92 MPH, and an upper 80's changeup with good fade.  He also mixes in a low 90's two seamer with great movement, and a low 80's slurve.  He may have the best arsenal in all of minor league baseball, and we can expect to see him in June or July.

2) Jameson Taillon--RHP--21--AA
Taillon impressed a lot of people with a very good start against Team USA while pitching for Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic.  Taillon has a plus fastball in the mid 90's along with a great curveball in the low 80's that can be his best pitch.  He also has a developing changeup and a good two seamer that he brought back in 2012.  Along with Cole, Taillon has the upside of a number one starter, and these two could combine to be one of the best pitching duos in the game.

3) Luis Heredia--RHP--18--A
Heredia had a great season in 2012 as a 17 year old facing mostly players who were drafted out of college.  He posted a 2.71 ERA in 66.1 IP, along with an impressive 1.10 WHIP.  He throws mostly in the 91-94 MPH range, but has reached the upper 90's in spring training last year.  He has the potential for a plus curve and plus changeup in the future, and his enormous upside has drawn him comparisons to Felix Hernandez.

4) Gregory Polanco--CF--21--A+
Polanco had a great breakout season in 2012, with a line of .325/.388/.522, with a .910 OPS, 16 home runs, and 40 stolen bases.  He is a true five-tool talent, making consistent hard contact and using his plus speed and arm to play great defense in center field.  Polanco is now one of the top prospects in baseball, and could improve his stock even more with a similar season in 2013.

5) Alen Hanson--SS--20--A+
Along with Polanco, Hanson had a breakout season in 2012.  He started off hot, hitting over .400 in April, then cooled off a bit, but still hit .309 with a .909 OPS, 16 home runs, and 35 stolen bases.  Hanson had hit decently in the past, so he wasn't as big of a surprise as Polanco.  The main question with Hanson is whether he will be able to stay at shortstop or not.  He has been very inconsistent defensively at the position, with 40 errors in 103 games in 2012 (along with 10 in 10 games this year).  The Pirates haven't had a good offensive shortstop for years, and Hanson could be that guy if he can stick at the position.

6) Josh Bell--OF--20--A
Signed for the biggest bonus out of the first round in draft history back in 2011, Bell was ranked as the #60 prospect by Baseball America.  However, after only 62 at bats in 2012, Bell went down for the rest of the season with a knee injury.  Bell is a switch hitter with potential plus power from both sides of the plate, and could end up a .300 hitter with around 30 homers a year one day.  He will go back to Low-A West Virginia, but should move up to High-A at some point this season.

7) Kyle McPherson--RHP--25--AAA
McPherson was one of two main competitors along with Jeff Locke for the Pirates' rotation coming into spring training, but struggled a little and was ultimately sent to AAA to begin the season.  McPherson experienced a great stint at the major league level at the end of the 2012 season, putting up a 2.73 ERA in 26.1 IP, along with three starts.  McPherson's calling card is his control, with a 1.6 BB/9 in parts of seven seasons in the minors.  He also has a good three pitch mix, with a solid changup and good curve, along with a fastball that sits 92-94 MPH.  McPherson could become a full time member of the Pirates rotation at some point in 2013.

8) Barrett Barnes--OF--21--A
Barnes was drafted in the Supplemental round of the 2012 draft, and therefore was the Pirates highest signed draft pick after first round pick Mark Appel decided to go back to college.  He has plus raw power and good speed, and could end up a 20 homer, 20 stolen base player in the future.  He has the ability to play center field, but with McCutchen and Marte on the team for many more years, Barnes will have to shift over to a corner outfield spot, but his bat should play well there.

9) Clay Holmes--RHP--20--A
Drafted in the ninth round of the 2011 draft, Holmes signed a very over-slot deal at $1.2 Million.  He lived up to that bonus last year with a 2.28 ERA in 59.1 IP at short-season State College last year.  He didn't allow many hits, with a 1.08 WHIP, but didn't strike out many (5.2 K/9) and walked a little too many (4.4 BB/9).  He has a fastball at 90-95 MPH and a slurvy breaking ball that can act as a plus pitch at times.  He also features a developing changeup, and could eventually become a number two or three starter in the majors.

10) Justin Wilson--LHP--25--MLB
Wilson will start the year in the major league bullpen, but has almost exclusively been a starter in the minor leagues, except for a couple bullpen stints at the end of the last two seasons.  He has great stuff, which is evidenced by his 9.2 K/9 and 6.0 H/9 last year in 135.2 IP at AAA, but has always had control and command issues, which is shown by his career 4.5 BB/9 in the minors.  He throws a fastball 92-96 MPH out of the rotation, and can hit the upper 90's when he's in the bullpen.  He has the ability to be a decent major league starter in the future, but will most likely remain in the bullpen as a late innings reliever.

11) Nick Kingham--RHP--21--A+
Kingham was a fourth round pick in 2010, and had a fantastic first year in Short season A-ball in 2011, with a 2.15 ERA in 71 IP.  He really struggled with his first five starts in his jump to full season ball in 2012, but bounced back with a solid final few months that lowered his ERA to 4.39.  An encouraging sign was that his K/9 rose to 8.3 in 2012, up from 6.0 in 2011, along with continued good control.  He has a fastball that can reach the mid 90's, but sits 90-93.  His curveball and changeup also have the chances to be above average pitches.  He has a workhorse body at 6'5, 220 pounds, and could be a solid number three starter.

12) Tyler Glasnow--RHP--19--A
Glasnow shot up eight inches to 6'7 during his high school career, which led to the Pirates drafting him as another projectable pitcher who has the chance to add velocity in the future.  The future came pretty soon for Glasnow, who now has the ability to pitch in the mid 90's, and has reportedly hit 98 MPH.  He matches that fastball with a plus curveball with good late break, a good two-seamer, and a developing changeup.  Control has been a problem for him in the past, but if he learns to command his pitches and continues to develop, he has the upside of a good number two starter.

13) Alex Dickerson--1B--23--AA
Dickerson is a bat-first first baseman who has above average power, although the power hasn't shown up as much as the Pirates would like it too.  Dickerson hit 13 home runs in 488 at bats last year, along with a .295 average and an OPS of .803.  It was a down hitting year in the Florida State League, as those numbers allowed him to win the league's Player of the Year.  His bat will dictate if he ends up in the majors, and if everything goes right he could be a .280 hitter with 25-30 homers a year in the majors.

14) Tony Sanchez--C--25--AAA
Sanchez has been one of the most disappointing prospects in the Pirates organization, as he was once the #46 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America.  That was before 2011, when he began his two straight seasons of disappointing offense.  His power was way down in 2011 with a .318 Slugging percentage at AA, but picked it up a bit in 2012 with a .408 slugging percentage at AAA.  He is an above average defender, which will allow him to reach the majors at some point, but unless he rediscovers his ability to hit, he will be nothing more than a backup at the major league level.  He is currently the number three catcher on the Pirates depth chart.

15) Dilson Herrera--2B--19--A
Herrera has the chance to be this year's Alen Hanson, as he has all the tools to be a breakout prospect, and had success offensively in Rookie-ball.  Herrera put up some impressive numbers in the rookie level Gulf Coast League last year, with a line of .281/.341/.482, along with seven home runs, 11 stolen bases, and an .823 OPS in 227 at bats.  He should be at least average defensively at second base as he progresses, but it will be his bat that could allow him to be one of the top prospects in the Pirates systems.

16) Bryan Morris--RHP--26--AAA
The only remaining player from the Jason Bay trade back in 2008, Morris has had a very up and down career.  He was drafted in the first round as a starter, got inured, got traded, struggled, did great, did ok, got moved to the bullpen, did great, and is now stuck at AAA.  Morris is a great bullpen arm, with a mid 90's fastball and a great curveball.  He should be up with the Pirates now, but was granted a fourth option and is currently at AAA, which he has outgrown.

17) Wyatt Mathison--C--19--A
Mathison was drafted as a catcher, but played mostly shortstop in high school due to his athleticism.  He still has a chance to be a good defender behind the plate, as well as an above average hitter as well.  He was rated by Baseball America as the top high school catching prospect in the 2012 draft, and the Pirates were able to get him in the second round.  He has a good arm, throwing out 36 percent of potential base stealers in 2012 in the GCL.  He has the chance to develop at least average power in the future and could post a solid average as well.

18) Jordy Mercer--SS--26--AAA
There was a big question that surrounded Mercer last year: "Where is he?".  This was because the Pirates had called Mercer up, but rarely played him, despite his offensive success in the minors and the fact that Clint  Barmes had an OPS below .600.  Mercer is solid defensively at short, and has the ability to be an above average offensive player at the position.  He won't hit for a high average, but with a full season of work at the majors he could post about a .260-.265 average with around 15 home runs.

19) Victor Black--RHP--25--AAA
Black was drafted in the supplemental first round of the 2009 draft, but didn't live up to his hype until last season.  In 2012, he posted a 1.65 ERA in 60 IP, with a 12.8 K/9 and 1.15 WHIP.  Control has been a problem in his career, and that continued in 2012, with a 4.4 BB/9.  Black has a plus fastball that sits 96-98 MPH, touching 99, and pairs that with a plus slider.  If he can improve his control a little, he could be a future option for closer with the Pirates, and that future may not be far away.

20) Jose Osuna--1B--20--A+
Osuna opened some eyes with his performance in the rookie level Gulf Coast League in 2011, with a batting line of .331/.400/.511 in 178 at bats, with four homers and a .911 OPS.  He followed that up in 2012 with a line of .280/.324/.454  in 482 at bats, with 16 homers and a .779 OPS.  Osuna is a bat-first first baseman, so his offensive production will determine how far he goes.  He has the chance to hit for good power in the future along with a solid average, and he is only 20 years old so there is ample time for his bat to develop.

21) Willy Garcia--OF--20--A+
Garcia was in a similar position as Gregory Polanco heading into 2012, a player who has the chance to be a five-tool talent, but hadn't yet put it all together.  Garcia didn't have the same breakout season that Polanco had, but some positives can be pulled from his performance.  In his first full season, Garcia led the minor league system with 18 home runs, and he did this at only 19 years old.  However, he struggled with pitch recognition, which led to a 28.5 strikeout rate, which he will need to improve in the future in order to advance in the system.  He has some impressive pop, and he has the potential to be this year's breakout prospect.

22) Matt Curry--1B--24--AA
Curry is another bat-first first baseman in the Pirates system, but at this point his offensive potential is behind those of Dickerson and Osuna.  Curry has spent the majority of 2011 and 2012 in AA, putting up OPS's of .694 and .832, respectively.  He will return there to begin 2013 because he is being blocked by Matt Hague and Jerry Sands at the AAA.  He will also share time at first with Dickerson, though Dickerson will get plenty of time in the outfield as well.  Curry could be a .280 hitter with around 15-20 homers in the majors one day, but will most likely end up as a bench option.

23) Stolmy Pimentel--RHP--23--AA
Pimentel came to the Pirates in the Joel Hanrahan trade, after struggling at the AA level in 166 IP at the level between 2011 and 2012, posting a 5.96 ERA.  Pimentel picked it up a little in 2012 with a 4.59 ERA, and the potential is still there for him.  He has the ability to pitch in the mid to upper 90's, but is more effective when he throws 91-94 with his two seamer.  He has a slider that can also work as a cutter, along with a good changeup.  Pimentel has started out very well in 2013 at AA, with zero earned runs in his first two starts.  If things go right for Pimentel, he could end up as a number three starter in the future.

24) Ivan De Jesus--2B/SS--26--AAA
De Jesus was another part of the Joel Hanrahan trade, and was basically a trade-off for Brock Holt.  De Jesus has good contact ability, but like Holt, he doesn't have much power.  Including this year, De Jesus has a .302 career average in parts of four seasons at the AAA, with an OPS of .770.  He will play mostly second base for the AAA Indians this year, where he may be better suited in the future.  But, with Neil Walker presumably with the club for many more years, the only chance De Jesus will get at the major league level is at shortstop.

25) Max Moroff--SS--20--A
Moroff was drafted in the 16th round of the 2012 draft, but is talented enough to be drafted higher.  The Pirates were able to sign him because of the fact that the team couldn't sign first rounder Mark Appel.  Moroff has the potential to be a two-way player in the future, a solid defensive shortstop who can hit as well.  He has an advanced bat for his age, and has displayed great plate patience in the past and the beginning of the 2013 season.  He has the chance to be a big breakout player in 2013, and the Pirates could definitely use another good, young shortstop prospect.

26) Phil Irwin--RHP--26--AAA
Irwin wasn't much of a prospect until 2012, where he proved that he could have success against upper level hitters.  Last year he had a 2.83 ERA in 130.1 IP across A+, AA, and AAA, with most of his time coming at the AA level.  He's displayed great control in his minor league career with a 1.6 BB/9, along with good strikeout numbers at a 8.0 K/9 rate.  He doesn't have much of a fastball, but he has a very interesting curveball which can easliy be a plus pitch.  He also has a sinker that he relies on early in the count.  He will start the year at the AAA, but has already made a spot start in the majors and is definitely an option to make more spot starts in the future.  If he continues his upper level success, he could be a number five starter in the majors.

27) Jin-De Jhang--C--20--A-
Jhang was signed out of Taiwan in 2011 for a $250,000 signing bonus, and a major reason for that bonus was Jhang's intriguing bat.  He makes consistent hard contact, lines balls to the gap, and walks a good amount while not striking out much at all.  Also, he has a strong arm, throwing out 29% of base runners last year in the GCL.  He's built big, at 5'11", 200 pounds, but if he can maintain his conditioning he will have the chance to be a good two-way catcher in the future.  He should battle with Wyatt Mathison for playing time at catcher for the next few years.

28) Adrian Sampson--RHP--21--A+
Sampson was drafted in the fifth round of the 2012 draft, and had immediate success with the short season State College Spikes.  He put up a 2.95 ERA in 42.2 innings, working mostly off of his strong fastball-curveball combo.  He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, and can reach 94 MPH during his outings.  His curve breaks late and sharply, making it difficult for hitters to recognize the pitch.  He began working on a changeup last season because he didn't have much need for the pitch in the past.  He skipped over Low-A to start the season, so the Pirates must think a lot of him, and he should be a good pitcher to watch in Bradenton this season.

29) Stetson Allie--1B--22--A
Allie wasn't originally going to be on this list, but after such a strong start at the plate, I couldn't resist.  Allie was drafted as a pitcher, but spent most of his time in high school as a power hitting third baseman.  After his pitching career didn't pan out as expected, the Pirates decided to move Allie back to being a hitter, where he had the chance to be a third-fifth round draft pick.  He may have the best raw power in the system, and the West Virginia Power manager went as far to say it was an 80 on the 20-80 scale.  Allie has gotten off to an amazing start this year, with a line of .407/.478/.780, with six home runs, 18 RBI, and an OPS of 1.258 in 59 at bats.  A big problem with Allie is his plate patience, and that has continued into this year, with a 25.4% strikeout rate so far.  But, he is drawing more walks and four of his fifteen strikeouts came in his first game.  If he can continue hitting for power and improve his plate patience, he could be a great prospect.

30) Adalberto Santos--UTLY--25--AA
Not a lot of people see Santos as a legitimate prospect, but you can't ignore the fact that the lowest average he has posted in a season is .314 at A+ in 2011.  So far in 262 AA at bats, Santos has a .347 average, along with an .886 OPS.  He doesn't hit for any power, but he gets on base at a great rate, and doesn't strike out much.  He's played mostly outfield in his career, but was drafted as a second baseman and has played exclusively at third so far in 2013.  He doesn't have much of a chance to start in the majors in the future, but could be a great utility player who hits for a high average with a great OBP.


10 POTENTIAL BREAKOUT PROSPECTS
Ten players who could take the next step and arrive in the team's top 10 prospects very soon.
-Tyler Glasnow
-Dilson Herrera
-Wyatt Mathison
-Jose Osuna
-Willy Garcia
-Max Moroff
-Jin-De Jhang
-Stetson Allie
-Harold Ramirez
-Eric Wood

TOP 5 PROSPECTS AT EACH POSITION
RHP
1-Gerrit Cole
2-Jameson Taillon4-
3-Luis Heredia
4-Kyle McPherson
5-Clay Holmes

LHP
1-Justin Wilson
2-Andrew Oliver
3-Zack Dodson
4-Orlando Castro
5-Joely Rodriguez

Catcher
1-Tony Sanchez
2-Wyatt Mathison
3-Jin-De Jhang
4-Jacob Stallings
5-Carlos Paulino

First Base
1-Alex Dickerson
2-Jose Osuna
3-Matt Curry
4-Stetson Allie
5-Matt Hague

Second Base
1-Dilson Herrera
2-Ivan De Jesus Jr
3-Jarek Cunningham
4-Dan Gamache
5-Kevin Ross

Third Base
1-Eric Wood
2-Eric Avila
3-Yhonathan Barrios
4-Edwin Espinal
5-D.J. Crumlich

Shortstop
1-Alen Hanson
2-Jordy Mercer
3-Max Moroff
4-Gift Ngoepe
5-Drew Maggi

Outfield
1-Gregory Polanco
2-Josh Bell
3-Barrett Barnes
4-Willy Garcia
5-Adalberto Santos
6-Mel Rojas Jr
7-Harold Ramirez
8-Elvis Escobar
9-Luis Urena
10-Raul Fortunato

5 CLOSEST TO THE MAJORS
-Gerrit Cole
-Kyle McPherson
-Justin Wilson
-Bryan Morris
-Jordy Mercer

2017 PROJECTED LINEUP/ROTATION

LINEUP
1) Alen Hanson-SS
2) Starling Marte-LF
3) Andrew McCutchen-CF
4) Pedro Alvarez-3B
5) Gregory Polanco-RF
6) Neil Walker-2B
7) Alex Dickerson-1B
8) Tony Sanchez-C

Notes: This is made from players that are already in the organization, but it's almost certain some of these positions will be filled by players not in the organization now.   The Pirates could have a very fast lineup, with Hanson, Marte, McCutchen, and Polanco all possessing plus speed.  2017 will likely be Alvarez's last year with a team, as he is a free agent after the year and a Scott Boras client, and his players rarely stay with their teams when they hit free agency.  Neil Walker should have an extension by this point, and hopefully Marte will as well.  I still like Sanchez as a prospect, so I think he edges out Wyatt Mathison for this spot.  I also really like Travis Snider, but I also believe Polanco has more upside at this point.

ROTATION
1- Gerrit Cole
2- Jameson Taillon
3- Luis Heredia
4- Kyle McPherson
5- Nick Kingham
Closer- Bryan Morris

Notes: The Pirates have the potential for three top of the rotation starters here, with Cole, Taillon, and Heredia.  McPherson has the chance to be one of the better number four starters in the league if he reaches his potential.  Kingham wasn't in my top five pitching prospects, but I think he has the safest bet to be in the rotation after McPherson.  There are a few other options at closer, including Justin Wilson, Victor Black, and Duke Welker, but with Morris' fastball-curve combo, he could be a great closer.  There are some options in the current bullpen, but it is rare for the Pirates to keep their relievers for an extended period of time.


There is always a disclaimer with prospects, as it is always difficult for them to reach their potential.  But, the Pirates have a lot of talent at the top of their system, and a lot of players below that who have the talent to become stars.  Only time will tell for the Pirates, but if you recall, time hasn't been friendly to the Pirates over the past twenty years.


Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.

Gaby Sanchez vs. Travis Snider

The season has just started, but there is already a great deal of debate about the lineup for the first two games.  Coming into spring training and even during spring training, it looked pretty certain that Garrett Jones would get the majority of playing time at first, with Gaby Sanchez getting some starts against lefties, and that Travis Snider would be the starting right fielder.  However, the lineups for the first two games featured Jones in right field and Sanchez at first base.  This has come as an unwelcome surprise to many fans, as Sanchez was absolutely terrible at the major league level in 2012, posting a .620 OPS in 299 at bats for the Marlins and Pirates.  Snider also had his share of struggles at the major league level, with an OPS of .697 in 164 at bats.  But, Snider had an OPS of 1.021 at AAA Las Vegas in 2012 while still in the Blue Jays organization.

Let's look at what both players bring to the team.

Gaby Sanchez
Sanchez is a 29 year old first baseman who had his rookie season in 2010 at the age of 26.  That year he finished fourth in the rookie of the year voting after hitting for a line of .273/.341/.448, with 19 home runs, 85 RBI, and an OPS of .788.  He followed that up in 2011 with a very similar line of .266/.352/.427, with 19 home runs, 78 RBI, and an OPS of .779.  He made the All-Star team, but as you can see, those stats are hardly All-Star worthy.  In 2012, Sanchez really struggled with the Marlins, with an OPS of .556 in 183 at bats.  He spent some time in the minors and was eventually traded to the Pirates in exchange for Gorkys Hernandez and the Pirates' supplemental draft pick, which will be the 35th pick in this year's draft.  Sanchez improved with the Pirates, basically becoming an average major league player with an OPS of .720 and an OPS+ of 101 (100 is average) in 116 at bats.
Sanchez had a good spring training in 2013, putting up an OPS of 1.066 in 43 at bats.  Spring training stats are largely meaningless, as hitters are facing pitchers who are trying to get a feel for their pitches again, and much of the time aren't throwing their best stuff.  Nonetheless, manager Clint Hurdle must have thought enough of those stats to give Sanchez the starting first base job.
Sanchez doesn't necessarily have a bad aspect to his game, but he doesn't have any impressive aspects either, and at 29 years old, doesn't have much room to improve.  He can hit for a decent average and about 15-20 home runs, but those are both average to below average for an everyday first baseman who doesn't play great defense.  He is a better defender than Garrett Jones, but the offensive upside is not there.  If he got the chance to start for the entire season, Sanchez can be expected to hit around .260-.270 with 15-20 home runs.  Not a stat line you want to see from your first baseman.

Travis Snider
Snider is a 25 year old former top prospect.  He has spent most of his career in the Blue Jays organization, and was acquired for Brad Lincoln around the same time as the Gaby Sanchez acquisition last season.  Snider hasn't gotten much of a chance to be an everyday player at the major league level, despite continued success at the AAA level.  In his career at AAA, he has a line of .333/.412/.565, with 33 home runs, 155 RBI, and an OPS of .976 in 696 at bats. The most at bats Snider has received at the major league level was in 2010, where he had a line of .255/.304/.463 with 14 homers, 32 RBI, and an OPS of .767.  That was Snider's age 22 season, and it came in the always tough AL East.  Despite that impressive line, he received only 187 at bats in 2011 and 164 in 2012.  It remains to be seen what Snider can do for a full season at the major league level, but there is definitely room to grow, even after two straight season of struggling.
Snider has a good deal of power potential, and although it hasn't been present at the major league level recently, it is evidenced by a .598 slugging percentage at AAA last year. Behind Alvarez and McCutchen, Snider could very well have the best power potential on the team.  He also plays a decent right field, and is also more competent than Garrett Jones is at the position.
The main thing with Travis Snider is the potential he still carries with him.  Back in 2009, he was rated as the #6 prospect in the minors by Baseball America.  Back in November, I wrote a post titled "The Case For Travis Snider", which you can read by clicking the link.  It outlines how Travis Snider needs to get the opportunity to play everyday to give him any chance of reaching his potential.  That potential is a .280 hitter with 25-35 home runs, which is an All-Star caliber player for a team that could desperately use a power bat to drive in runs.

Coming into 2012, the Pirates had a former top prospect on their hands who had experienced major struggles at the major league level, after having a good half season at the level.  The Pirates gave this player a full season of at bats to adjust to the league and prove himself, and that player responded by hitting 30 home runs.  That player was Pedro Alvarez, and giving him a full season of at bats seems to have worked out for the Pirates.  Travis Snider finds himself in a near identical position in 2013, where a full season of at-bats could really revive his major league career.  After the decision to play Alvarez everyday worked out, it would only make sense to give Snider the same opportunity.

Clint Hurdle has made a lot of questionable decisions as the manager of the Pirates, but this could be the most frustrating.  The only "argument" for Sanchez at this point is that he had a very good Spring Training.  But what does that mean?  Matt Hague had an incredible spring in 2012, but couldn't handle major league pitching.  Alvarez had a terrible spring in 2012, then followed that with a breakout season.  Spring stats really don't correlate with regular season results much of the time, and cannot be used in a valid argument.  Basically what we are looking at in the case between Gaby Sanchez vs. Travis Snider is a player who struggled greatly last season who could at best produce average offense, or a player who struggled as well, but could become an All-Star with 30+ home runs.  Personally, I'm taking the guy who could hit 30+ home runs, rather than the player who hits 20 in a best case scenario.

Snider could struggle again in 2013, or he see the same success that Pedro Alvarez saw in 2012.  But, we will never know unless Snider gets the opportunity to play everyday.  If he continues to sit the bench, he will not grow as a player, and will not be able to work on his struggles.  The best thing the Pirates can do right now is give Snider the chance to play everyday in right field, and have Garrett Jones platoon with Sanchez at first base.  You could also make an argument for a Jose Tabata-Travis Snider platoon in right as well, which I would not be against, as Tabata could use everyday at bats as well.

A lot of Pirates fans agree that Snider should be starting and have voiced their opinions.  I just wish Clint Hurdle would agree with us as well.

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.

My 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions

Well, the 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates season is almost upon us.  The team finished with the worst record in the Grapefruit League during spring training, and not a lot of people are feeling too optimistic about this upcoming season.  The team didn't bring in much outside help over the offseason, so a lot of fans are questioning how the team will improve from last year.  But, let's remember that the team will have a full season of Wandy Rodriguez and Starling Marte, along with improved play from the catching position, Neil Walker will hopefully be healthy for the full season, and top prospect Gerrit Cole should be up sometime in June.  So even though the team did not add much from outside, there is a lot internal talent that definitely has the chance to push the team over .500 in 2013.  That being said, who will perform this year?  Will anyone fall below expectations?  Will anyone exceed expectations?  Here are my personal predictions for the 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates.

Pitchers: (Record--ERA--Innings--Strike outs--WHIP--Saves)

A.J. Burnett:  13-9--3.88 ERA--203 IP--171 K's--1.29 WHIP--0 Saves
Jeanmar Gomez:  0-2--6.43 ERA--14 IP--6 K's--1.71 WHIP--0 saves
Jason Grilli:  2-6--3.26 ERA--61 IP--74 K's--1.21 WHIP--38 saves
Jared Hughes:  2-3--3.13 ERA--63 IP--44 K's--1.18 WHIP--2 saves
Phil Irwin:  1-1--4.47 ERA--21 IP--12 K's--1.41 WHIP--0 saves
Jeff Karstens:  5-5--4.01 ERA--87 IP--62 K's--1.23 WHIP--0 saves
Chris Leroux:  2-1--4.26 ERA--26 IP--24 K's--1.27 WHIP--0 saves
Francisco Liriano:  6-7--4.32 ERA--101 IP--92 K's--1.32 WHIP--0 saves
Jeff Locke:  8-7--4.12 ERA--146 IP--123 K's--1.22 WHIP--0 saves
James McDonald:  12-10--3.69 ERA--181 IP--165 K's--0 saves
Kyle McPherson:  4-5--4.24 ERA--48 IP--32 K's--1.18 WHIP--0 saves
Mark Melancon:  1-3--2.79 ERA--58 IP--60 K's--1.21 WHIP--4 saves
Bryan Morris: 1-1--3.37 ERA--34 IP--26 K's--1.18 WHIP--0 saves
Charlie Morton:  5-3--4.35 ERA--42 IP--32 K's--1.25 WHIP--0 saves
Wandy Rodriguez:  12-7--3.76 ERA--202 IP--139 K's--1.24 WHIP--0 saves
Jonathan Sanchez:  5-8--4.36 ERA--83 IP--68 K's--1.39 WHIP--0 saves
Tony Watson:  4-2--3.44 ERA--55 IP--50 K's--1.16 WHIP--0 saves
Justin Wilson:  4-2--3.02 ERA--65 IP--59 K's--1.11 WHIP--1 save
Gerrit Cole:  8-4--3.35 ERA--126 IP--124 K's--1.18 WHIP--0 saves

PITCHER OF THE YEAR:  James McDonald
BREAKOUT PITCHER OF THE YEAR:  Gerrit Cole
RELIEVER OF THE YEAR:  Jason Grilli

Hitters: (At bats--Average--Home Runs--RBI--SB--OPS)

Russell Martin:  411 AB--.237 avg--17 HR--54 RBI--1 SB--.724 OPS
Michael McKenry:  254 AB--.265 avg--11 HR--42 RBI--1 SB--.772 OPS
Tony Sanchez:  64 AB--.236 avg--1 HR--5 RBI--0 SB--.652 OPS
Pedro Alvarez:  558 AB--.268 avg--35 HR--96 RBI--1 SB--.852 OPS
Clint Barmes:  452 AB--.235 avg--12 HR--41 RBI--1 SB--.638 OPS
Josh Harrison:  183 AB--.264 avg--1 HR--18 RBI--5 SB--.655 OPS
Brandon Inge:  201 AB--.220 avg--3 HR--22 RBI--0 SB--.660 OPS
Garrett Jones:  475 AB--.270 avg--22 HR--73 RBI--3 SB--.769 OPS
John McDonald:  140 AB--.227 avg--2 HR--17 RBI--0 SB--.627 OPS
Jordy Mercer:  156 AB--.267 avg--5 HR--23 RBI--3 SB--.738 OPS
Gaby Sanchez:  342 AB--.274 avg--12 HR--46 RBI--1 SB--.745 OPS
Neil Walker:  568 AB--.287 avg--18 HR--82 RBI--7 SB--.808 OPS
Starling Marte:  586 AB--.302 avg--15 HR--76 RBI--28 SB--.827 OPS
Andrew McCutchen:  592 AB--.310 avg--30 HR--91 RBI--.911 OPS
Alex Presley:  136 AB--.270 avg--4 HR--20 RBI--.755 OPS
Jerry Sands:  140 AB--.252 avg--7 HR--22 RBI--.748 OPS
Travis Snider: 493 AB--.275 avg--19 HR--64 RBI--.762 OPS
Jose Tabata;  204 AB--.277 avg--3 HR--28 RBI--.737 OPS
Ivan De Jesus:  119 AB--.282 avg--1 HR--11 RBI--.709 OPS

HITTER OF THE YEAR:  Andrew McCutchen
BREAKOUT HITTER OF THE YEAR:  Pedro Alvarez
MOST VALUABLE BENCH PLAYER:  Gaby Sanchez

Whole team awards:

TEAM MVP:  Andrew McCutchen
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:  Gerrit Cole

Minor League Awards:

AAA
BEST HITTER:  Jerry Sands
BEST PITCHER:  Gerrit Cole
BREAKOUT PLAYER:  Tony Sanchez

AA
BEST HITTER:  Alex Dickerson
BEST PITCHER:  Jameson Taillon
BREAKOUT PLAYER:  Stolmy Pimentel

A+
BEST HITTER:  Gregory Polanco
BEST PITCHER:  Nick Kingham
BREAKOUT PLAYER:  Jose Osuna

A
BEST HITTER:  Josh Bell
BEST PITCHER:  Luis Heredia
BREAKOUT PLAYER:  Max Moroff

Whole system awards:
HITTER OF THE YEAR:  Gregory Polanco
PITCHER OF THE YEAR:  Jameson Taillon
BREAKOUT PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Jose Osuna


I'd love to hear all of your predictions!  Any predictions, questions, or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.

2013 Positional Preview: Second Base

Ever since he overtook Akinori Iwamura as the starting second baseman in 2010, there has been no question on who will be penciled in at the number 4 position on the Pirates opening day roster.  A fan favorite.  The Real Deal.  The Pittsburgh Kid.  Neil Walker.  Over the past three seasons, Walker has emerged as one of the best second baseman in the National League, both offensively and defensively.  In 2012, Walker put up a WAR of 2.5, a career best, with a line of .280/.342/.426 and an OPS of .768.  He also hit a career high 14 home runs, but saw his RBI production drop a little from 83 in 2011 to 69 in 2012.  He was limited to 129 games in 2012, and his numbers were brought down after battling injuries throughout August and September, where he hit a combined .235/.280/.357 with 3 HR's, 14 RBI and an OPS of .637.

Walker's injuries in August and most of September gave an opportunity for Brock Holt to get everyday playing time at the major league level.  After hitting .432 with a 1.013 OPS in 95 at bats in AAA, Holt was called up to help the major league team and found himself as the starting second baseman for the majority of September.  In total at the major league level, Holt had a line of .292/.329/.354 with an OPS of .682.  Holt has always dealt with a lack of power, and his calling card has always been a high average and a high on base percentage.  Regardless, none of those will be present in 2013 for the Pirates as Holt was traded to the Red Sox in the Joel Hanrahan deal over the offseason.

Now for 2013:

Starter: Neil Walker
Walker should be the Pirates starting second baseman for at least a few more years.  If his back holds up, Walker should have another solid season in 2013, with an average around .280-.290 with approximately 15 home runs.  He will do this while playing great defense at second and being a clubhouse leader that can really ignite the fire in his teammates.  With Walker, it is a pretty safe bet on what you're going to get production-wise, but the Pirates will still hope that Walker becomes the .300, 20 home run hitter that he has the outside chance of being.

Bench Options: John McDonald, Brandon Inge, Josh Harrison
The only player on this list that is guaranteed to be on the opening day roster is John McDonald, who was recently acquired from the Diamondbacks for a player to be named later or cash.  The 38 year old McDonald is not an offensive threat in any way, with a career OPS of .608, but he is considered one of the best defensive middle infielders in the game, at least as a bench option.  He plays mostly shortstop, but has also played second in his career.  Brandon Inge will have a roster spot, but at this point it remains to be seen if he will start on the DL or not after being hit by a pitch recently.  Inge used to be an average to slightly above average power hitter, but that attribute is long gone.  All he can really bring now is some veteran leadership and some versatility in the infield.  But, he has only appeared in six games at second, but all six came in 2012.  Josh Harrison could start the year on the 25 man roster if Inge starts on the DL, but should find himself in AAA when Inge returns.  Harrison has the most offensive upside of these players and can play decent defense at second, third, and short.  Personally, I would rather see Harrison than Inge, but that seems unlikely.

Minor League Players We Could See This Year: Ivan De Jesus Jr., Jordy Mercer, Chase D'arnaud
I could see either De Jesus Jr. or Mercer taking over every second base duties if Neil Walker goes down with an extended injury.  De Jesus was acquired in the Hanrahan deal from Boston, and is a similar player to Brock Holt.  He puts up a good average and gets on base at a good rate, but doesn't hit for much power.  He is now labeled a second baseman after a lengthy leg injury in 2009, but still has the ability to play shortstop, and has displayed good defensive instincts in the past.  Mercer is mainly a shortstop, but plays average defense at second.  His bat plays well at both second and short, with above average power for a middle infielder.  D'arnaud was viewed as one of the top prospects in the system prior to 2010, but has struggled offensively since then, especially when he got a chance at the major league level in 2011 (.528 OPS in 143 AB's).

The only real question facing the Pirates' second base situation is: How long will Neil Walker be in Pittsburgh?  A possible extension for Walker has been a hot topic since Jose Tabata received his extension back in 2011.  Walker definitely seems willing to spend his entire career in Pittsburgh, but not much progress has been made on an extension over the past year.  This could be because the front office is waiting to see if Walker's 2012 back injury lingers into 2013.  If it has no effect on his play, then we could an extension for Walker in the near future that could keep the Pittsburgh Kid in a buccos uniform for a long time.

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.

2013 Positional Preview: First Base

Entering the offseason before the 2012 season, there existed a lot of questions about who would be the Pirates first baseman.  They finished the 2011 season with Derrek Lee as the everyday first baseman, but Lee chose not to play in 2012, despite the Pirates and a few other teams expressing interest in him.  There were a few free agent options out there, including Michael Cuddyer and Carlos Pena, but the Pirates made the decision that they were best fit going into 2012 with Garrett Jones as their first baseman.  This was a risky move at the time, as Jones had a history of struggles against left handed pitching and wasn't a particularly good defender at the position.  However, he brought the offensive upside to the position that the Pirates needed, with decent power numbers over the past few years and a .938 OPS in 358 at bats in 2009.    But, his OPS dropped to .720 in 2010 and .753 in 2011, so no one was sure what the Pirates were going to get from Jones in 2012.

The risk paid off for the Pirates in 2012, as Jones had the best year of his career, with a batting line of .274/.317/.516 with an OPS of .832 and 27 home runs.  Along with Andrew McCutchen (31 HR's) and Pedro Alvarez (30 HR's), Jones was part of one of the best power trios in recent Pirates memory.  Jones played below average defense, but helped to make up for that by posting the sixth best WAR on the team.  Overall, however, his WAR of 1.5 is not that impressive, as a WAR of 2 is generally the base for an average regular.  Still, with his OPS+ of 129, Jones was most likely at the highest value that he will ever be at, which caused a lot of trade speculation to surround him over the offseason.  It is easy to see why, as a big lefty who had an .888 OPS against righties in 2012 is not easy to come by.  He drew interest from teams, including the Mariners and Orioles, but ultimately the Pirates held on to Jones for the 2013 season.

Other players that spent time at first for the Pirates last year were Casey McGehee, Gaby Sanchez, and Matt Hague.  McGehee received a lot of playing time, but after posting a .674 OPS in 265 at bats, he was traded to the Yankees at the trade deadline.  One of the reasons the Pirates traded McGehee was because of their acquisition of Gaby Sanchez.  The Pirates acquired Sanchez the same day they traded McGehee, and gave up a decent amount for the former All-Star, with Gorkys Hernandez and the Pirates' 2013 supplemental pick going to the Marlins.  Sanchez will have to perform above the .720 OPS he posted for the Pirates last year to make fans more willing to part with the top 35 pick the team gave up to get Sanchez.  Hague made the opening day roster after an amazing spring, but did not perform at all with a .527 OPS in 70 at bats.

Now lets take a look at the 2013 outlook at first base.

Starter: Garrett Jones
The offensive numbers that Jones put up last year have given him the spot as the first baseman who will get the majority of the playing time to start the season.  The team hopes he can put up similar numbers to what he did last year, but looking at his past and factoring in that he is entering his age-32 season, that is far from a guarantee.  Jones is a safer bet to hit at least .250 with around 20 home runs, but his struggles against lefties still exist, which could prove to be problematic.  This will most likely open the door for Gaby Sanchez in a potential platoon role, where he should see a good amount of starts against lefty pitchers, whom Sanchez has a career .869 OPS against.  If Jones and Sanchez put up numbers close to their career numbers in their respective platoon roles, the Pirates could have a formidable duo at first with possibly a .275-.280 average and 25 home runs across an entire season.  But as we saw with the Garrett Jones-Matt Diaz platoon a couple years back, these situations don't always work out as you would hope.

Bench Options: Gaby Sanchez
The Pirates will generally have either Gaby Sanchez or Garrett Jones on the bench on any given day, unless Sanchez is at third or Jones is in right field.  Sanchez is a great player to have on your team's bench, as he is a former All-Star who has the potential to hit 15-20 homers with everyday playing time, but you would like to see him produce a lot of offense after giving up a draft pick for him.  Sanchez has had a good Spring Training so far, which could put him in the position to see a good deal of at bats once the regular season begins.  Regardless, Sanchez will be a great option to pinch hit against lefties, and Jones will be a great option against righties.

Minor League Players We Could See This Year: Clint Robinson, Matt Hague, Matt Curry
Clint Robinson has put up some impressive numbers in the minors throughout his career, with an OPS of .902 in six minor league seasons.  But because of certain players blocking him at the major league level with Kansas City, he hasn't gotten a chance to play in the majors.  He came to the Pirates over the offseason, and has the chance to be the next Garrett Jones if the opportunity presents itself.  By saying "the next Garrett Jones", I mean a player who has good minor league numbers but hasn't gotten a chance in the majors who goes on to hit well in the majors when finally given a chance.  Matt Hague is probably the fourth guy on the depth chart at this point, and he doesn't really provide much offensive or defensive upside, and he will be limited to bench duty if he gets a chance with the major league club.  Matt Curry is one of the top first base prospects in the upper levels (behind Alex Dickerson), and is rated the #23 prospect in the Pirates system, according to Baseball America.  He has the potential to be a .280 hitter with 15-20 homers in the majors one day, but won't get much if any of an opportunity in 2013 at the major league level.

First base has the potential to be a strength for the Pirates in 2013, if both Garrett Jones and Gaby Sanchez hit to their potential in their potential platoon roles.  But, if they don't hit up to their potential, a weakness will be created that will need to be addressed at either the trade deadline or in the next offseason, unless the team feels comfortable trusting Clint Robinson or Matt Curry to handle the first base duties.  Another topic to consider is that if the Pirates seem to be out of playoff contention around the trade deadline and Jones is hitting well, could Jones be traded?  If he puts up numbers like he did last year, he would be a great option for contenders and could bring a good return for the Pirates.  That is something that the Pirates explored this past offseason, and could be an interesting story to follow throughout the year.  But at this point, we can assume that the Pirates' first base production will be around .250-.260 with 20-25 home runs.  That's not bad, but the Pirates would love to see a platoon between Jones and Sanchez produce even more than what Jones gave the team in 2012.

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