2012 Roster Possibilities: First Base

Written By: Michael Mawhinney

 After the 2010 season, the Pirates went out and signed Lyle Overbay for $5 million, which seemed expensive even then.  This was coming after a season where he hit 20 home runs, which was only the second time in his career where he reached the 20-homer mark.  He was said to be a great defender and clubhouse leader, so it seemed like a somewhat reasonable signing if he could hit around .260 with 20 homers.  However, he did none of that.  Instead, he hit .227 with eight home runs in 352 AB’s, and his fielding was decent, but not as advertised.  

While Overbay was struggling in the majors, the AAA team’s first baseman Matt Hague was hitting well over .300, and fans in Pittsburgh wanted to see him called up and Overbay benched.  This would have been a smart decision, but Hague’s long term potential seems to be that of a hitter similar to Lyle Overbay in his prime, but a worse fielder.  Calling Hague up would have helped the club because there was no way that he could have played worse than Overbay, and it would have helped the coaches see how he can handle major league pitching.  In the end, he was never called up, and he only has an outside chance of making the club out of Spring Training next season.  

Lyle Overbay was eventually designated for assignment the day after the Pirates acquired Derrek Lee from the Orioles.  Lee immediately became the everyday first baseman, and made an instant impact when he hit two home runs in his Pirate debut.  Unfortunately, he was hit by a pitch in the wrist and went on the DL for 21 days, but when he returned, he provided a major boost to the team.  For the Pirates, Lee hit for a .337/.398/.584 line with seven home runs, and did a great job in the field.  

Right now, it is unknown who will be the starting first baseman for the Pirates in 2012.  Lee is a free agent, Hague isn’t a great option as a starter, Garrett Jones can’t hit lefties, and Steve Pearce will probably be non-tendered.  GM Neal Huntington has expressed interest in resigning Derrek Lee, but that is going to require Lee to actually want to come back.  There has been talk of retirement with him, but the way he finished the season should give him the desire to play again.  If the Pirates can’t resign Lee, then they will most likely turn to the free agent market, although there aren’t many good options outside of Pujols and Fielder, and that just isn’t going to happen for the Buccos.  Also, Huntington will try to avoid another Lyle Overbay situation, so any player that is similar to him should not be considered.  Some players that they may consider are Jorge Cantu, Michael Cuddyer, Casey Kotchman, and Carlos Pena.  Cantu has the chance of being Overbay 2.0, so the Pirates won’t chase him, and Kotchman doesn’t have enough power for a team the desperately needs that aspect of the game.  That leaves Cuddyer and Pena, but their asking prices may be too high for the Pirates.  But, with the front office claiming they can raise payroll, the team may be willing to meet their demands.  Still, it is more likely that the Pirates persuade Derrek Lee to return for another year.

Another way the Pirates can acquire a new first baseman is through trades.  The Pirates have built up their minor league system to a point where there are prospects who are expendable in trades, so this route should be explored.  One player the Pirates could go after is Yonder Alonso of the Reds, who has played mainly 1B in the minors, and with Joey Votto at first, he could be included in a deal.  He would cost a lot for the Pirates, as he will only be 25 next season and was the #73 prospect in Baseball coming into this year.  ESPN analyst Jim Bowden suggested the Pirates should trade prospect Starling Marte for him, but that would not be a good deal for the Bucs.

The first base picture isn’t clear heading into next season, and the team’s best option seems to be resigning Derrek Lee.  Garrett Jones is arbitration eligible, but he is a good backup option with power, and the team could also use Matt Hague if needed.  The Pirates don’t seem to have a first base prospect that will arrive in Pittsburgh this season, so they may be in a similar predicament during the 2012 off-season as they are now.

2012 Roster Possibilities: Catchers

Written By: Michael Mawhinney

Edited By: Brian Hannon   
Over twelve segments, we will talk about each position, including position players, the starting rotation, the bullpen, and bench options, and analyzing roster options to see what our lineup could look like in 2012.  To do this, we will look at 2011 and past performance, arbitration eligible players, players with options, minor league players ready to make the jump to the majors, and potential free agents.  The Pirates took a big step forward in 2011, winning 15 more games than they did in the previous year.  If the team makes the right moves, we could possibly even see a contending team heading into 2012.  It’s not likely, but this year’s team showed it can happen.  Here’s a look at the options for Catchers:

 The Pirates used eight catchers in 2011, which is obviously a lot.  It wasn’t because the starters were under-performing, it was that they were getting injured.  Ryan Doumit had another extended stay on the disabled list, and Chris Snyder only got 96 AB’s before his season was ended because of a back injury, which required surgery.  These injuries prompted the call-ups of minor league catchers Dusty Brown, Wyatt Toregas, Eric Fryer, and Michael McKenry,  none of whom played well.  

There was a time when McKenry was starting and Fryer was the back up and the team was playing very well.  At this time, people felt comfortable with this combo heading into 2012, but both of these players are most likely back ups.  Some fans love McKenry for the energy he brings, especially after his dramatic 3-run home run that ended up winning the game back in June, and everyone seems to believe he is a great defender.  He is a decent defender, but he’s nothing special, especially because he has lots of trouble throwing out runners.  Also, he has not hit at the major league level, with an OPS of .598 this season and an average at .222. His WAR (Wins Above Replacement), which is a great stat to judge the overall performance of a player was -0.1, so he provided the production of a replacement level player. Those are not the numbers of a starter, and it would be a bad decision to have him as the starter in 2012.  As for the other options going into next season, Snyder and Doumit both have options for next year, but they are very expensive, at $6.75 M and $7.25 M, respectively.  Those prices are going to be too high for the Pirates, so it is extremely unlikely that they exercise either.  That being said, the Pirates can still try to sign them at a lower price, and the club has expressed interest in resigning Snyder.  Ryan Doumit, however, has said the chances of him returning to the Pirates are “slim”, so we have probably seen him for the last time in a Pittsburgh uniform.  The only other internal option that the Pirates have is Jason Jaramillo, who hasn’t hit well in the past, although he has been a tolerable replacement for the most part, but at 28 years old, it is unlikely he ever will be a solid starting catcher.  

The free agent market for catchers this off-season isn’t very deep, and there are no real upgrades over Snyder or Doumit.  The Pirates could explore the trade market for catchers, but, as in the past, teams will most likely ask for a lot in return for a good catcher.  With that being said, the best bet the Pirates have is to use the $750 K buyout on Snyder’s option, and resign him for a lower price.  The Pirates have a few guys that would be decent back-ups in McKenry, Jaramillo, and Fryer, so there is no point in attempting to sign anyone else through free agency.

Top 30 Prospects: #30-28

This is the top 30 prospects that Michael Mawhinney has compiled for Bloggin Buccos along with my edits.  The Pirates have added a good deal of top notch players that could be stars in the majors one day, which should give them a top 10 minor league system overall, possibly even entering the top 5.  The top and middle of the list was relatively easy to make, but as I got into the 20’s, I realized that there were around 30 players that could make a case for the remaining spots.  I mainly looked at the upside and talent of the players, even if they didn’t have good numbers (example: Mel Rojas Jr.), but there were just some players that you could not ignore because of performance (example: Ramon Cabrera).  I also looked at how much they have proven themselves as prospects. Players were ranked based on their OFP (Overall Future Potential) on the 20-80 scouting scale, with 50 being an average big leaguer.  This is our first top prospects list, so hopefully we can get a good start (unlike the Pirates’ pitching staff in August).  Special thanks to Pirates Prospects and Baseball-Reference for supplying Michael with stats and insight.

Just for Clarification: AAA--Indianapolis, AA--Altoona, High-A--Bradenton, Low-A--West Virgina, Short Season--State College, Gulf Coast League (Rookie League)
           
30.) Ramon Cabrera--C--21:  Cabrera is a border-line prospect, but I felt like he needed to be added to this list.  He had an amazing year with Bradenton this season, hitting for a .343/.410/.471 line.  He also struck out at a very low rate, and actually walked more than he was fanned.  But, at only 5’7”, he will face some difficulty down the road.  He is decent defensively behind the plate, but his arm is below average, as he only threw out 13% of base stealers, a number that needs improvement if he wants to be taken seriously as a catching prospect.  The argument could be made, however, that this is not a concern because Pirates minor league pitchers are very poor at holding runners on because they are taught to focus solely on pitching.  The Pirates may have a problem next year in Altoona, because Cabrera, teammate Carlos Paulino (.299/.351/.439), and Tony Sanchez all may be at that level.  I imagine Paulino will stay in Bradenton, and Cabrera and Sanchez will split time, with Cabrera also playing a good amount of games as the DH.  If Cabrera can have anywhere near a similar season as he had this year in AA, he can possibly be a top 15 prospect in the organization.

OFP: 44 (Backup Catcher)

29.) Quincy Latimore--LF--22:  Latimore makes this list because he possesses something that most players in the Pirates’ system don’t: power.  That is pretty much all you can say about Latimore, as he has failed to impress with his average, speed, and fielding.  He strikes out a little too much, in about 27% of his plate appearances, but that is expected with a power hitter.  But I would’ve like to see more than 15 HR’s from him this year in AA, if power is still the only tool he is showing.  If everything goes well for him, he can be a 20-30 HR guy in the majors, but expect a .220-.230 average.  I expect him to start the 2012 season in Altoona again.

OFP: 42 (Bench/Below Average Regular)


28.) Brooks Pounders--RHP--20:  Pounders was the 2nd round pick in 2009, part of a draft class filled with high school pitching prospects.  He is not as flashy as more recent second round picks like Stetson Allie and Josh Bell, but is still a decent prospect.   Pounders is built big at 6’4” and 270 lbs, but he is not a flamethrower.  His fastball was hitting 90-92 out of the West Virginia bullpen this year, where he spent almost the entire year, only starting once.  His strikeout rate this year was very good, at 9.8 per 9 innings, and he has above average control of his pitches.  If I were the Pirates, I would keep him at West Virginia next year and give him an opportunity to be in the starting rotation.

OFP: 49 (Back of Rotation Starter/Middle Reliever)

My Team For This Year: The Rest...Actually the guys that I hope never play for the bucs again

Ok, so that was a bad idea for me to care about what the team looks like for the rest of this year in the slightest.  It really just does not matter as long as I never have to see Ross Ohlendorf take the mound (at least as a starter) for the Pirates ever again.

All I really want to say in this post is that these players I would love to see not on the team next year, whom are on the active roster:

Pitchers:  Ross Ohlendorf, Chris Resop, Jose Veras...Ohlendorf is a complete mess and has cost the Pirates upwards of 5 games this year.  Resop and Veras will give you great outings in situations were it does not matter, but when you need them, they are terrible.

Hitters:  Mike McKenry, Chase d'Arnaud, Josh Harrison, Brandon Wood, Ryan Ludwick, and maybe most of all Xavier Paul...McKenry is a hard worker and a hustler, but he is very poor offensively and he is no better than an average defender, d'Arnaud has lots of potential but he clearly is not ready to be in the bigs, Josh Harrison is solid defensively at 3rd, but lacks power and takes almost no walks, so he isn't of much use.  Brandon Wood is also pretty solid defensively at third but couldn't hit water if he jumped off a ship in the middle of the ocean.  Ludwick is poor defensively, hits poorly and is overpaid, I've seen more than enough.  And then there is Xavier Paul, who Clint Hurdle loves.  Clint cannot seem to get through a game without putting him in.  He is an atrocious hitter, and he is certainly overrated defensively.  I really hope Neal Huntington has a sane enough mind to let him and the rest of these guys go.

My Team For This Year: Lineup

I often think about what I would do as the General Manager or Manager of the Pirates and here are my thoughts on this year's team:
2011-Lineup:
1. Jose Tabata RF
2. Alex Presley LF
3. Neil Walker 2B
4. Andrew McCutchen CF
5. Derrek Lee 1B
6. Ryan Doumit C
7. Pedro Alvarez 3B
8. Ronny Cedeno SS

I have Tabata leading off and I'm sure that Clint Hurdle would have him there as well if he was healthy. Clint Has has Presley in left as he should so no complaints there. Neil Walker should be batting third because you should have a solid hitter in that spot, but not your best and Neil fits the mold pretty well.  Next up in my order would be Andrew McCutchen in the cleanup role.  Cutch has emerged as a serious power threat and this is the best spot for him at the moment.  Batting 5th is Derrek Lee and the tall first basemen has all the qualities neccessary to be in this spot.  Batting 6th at catcher is Ryan Doumit.  Doumit is a good hitter when healthy and is truly the pirates best catching option at this point.  That being said, the Pirates should look elsewhere for next year because of his poor defense and his inabililty to stay healthy.  However, he is only marginally worse defensively than Mike McKenry, in my opinion, and his offense is far better than McKenry's so its an easy call for me.  Batting 7th at third base is probably the toughest decision, but I ultimately went with Pedro Alvarez.  Pedro has the most potential in the lineup, so with the team far out of contention, it is in the team's best long term interest to gert Pedro as much playing time as possible to work things out going into next year.  Batting 8th at shortstop is an easy call for me as I believe that Ronny Cedeno should have that spot locked up for this year and next.  Clint Hurdle clearly does not agree with me, but the fact is that Ronny is a slightly above average defensive shortstop and a slightly below average offensive shortstop on a well below average team so there is no doubt in my mind that he should be starting at Shortstop.  The fact is that the Pirates also have no better internal options, with the closest replacement option being Chase D'Arnaud, and he has struggled in all facets of the game since he has been in the Major Leagues. 

I will continue this series looking at this year and next years teams soon!

19 Losing Seasons

Post Written By Bloggin Buccos Contributer Michael Mawhinney:

    Today’s 3-2 loss against the Cardinals was the 82nd of the season, marking 19 straight losing years for the Pirates.  When the Pirates finished with their 17th consecutive losing season, they had broken the major North American sports record for that streak.  But by that time, and even now, it was to be expected, and many people didn’t even seem to care as much as they should.  In fact, the owner of this blog, Brian Hannon, and I were at the game two years ago where the buccos lost their 82nd game, breaking the infamous record.  When the game ended, there was a lot of cheering in the stands from the few who actually attended the game.  To be honest, Brian and myself were included in this.  We were proud to say that we saw the game that pretty much defined the Pirates over the last two decades.  But now, after 19 seasons, it is becoming a bit too much.
    We all know how the streak started.  In 1992, the last winning season we’ve had, we made the NLCS with high hopes of winning the pennant and were seemingly headed to the World Series with a 2-0 lead heading into the bottom of the 9th.  Needless to say, we gave up three runs in that inning, with the final run scored by the very slow Sid Bream on a bad throw by Barry Bonds.  After the season, we lost our best player in Bonds and our ace in Doug Drabek.  Things were looking bad heading into the future.  But we never thought it would be this bad.  
    The Pirates have seen star players come and go (Jason Bay, Freddy Sanchez, Jason Kendall), but none of them have led us to glory.  At one point in 2008, the bucs had possibly the most productive outfield in baseball, with Bay, Nate McLouth, and Xavier Nady.  All three of those players were traded within a year of each other, and the Pirates began to rebuild under General Manager Neal Huntington.  And finally, after so many losing seasons, the Pirates are finally giving us a glimmer of hope.
    Young players are becoming the forefront of our roster, highlighted by Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, Jose Tabata, and Pedro Alvarez (too much realized potential to keep Pedro off this list).  This year’s team was in playoff contention until early August, and showed that they can seriously compete in the near future.  Also, under Huntington, the organization has added a lot of talent to the system, including pitchers Jameson Taillon, Gerrit Cole, and Luis Heredia, along with outfielders Starling Marte and Josh Bell.  To have these types of players on our major league team and within our organization is definitely encouraging, and I expect to see major strides over the next few seasons.
    Over the past 19 years, the Pittsburgh Pirates have been far worse than disapointing, there’s no denying it.  But, the new management has done a fine job adding quality talent to the major league team and minor league system, and the city of Pittsburgh can finally see some bright spots heading into next season and beyond.

Instant Replay In Baseball... leads me to a huge rant

The Pirates once again got hurt by a bad calls by an umpire.  The 3rd base umpire claimed that Pedro Ciriaco left early when trying to tag up on on Derrek Lee fly out which would have put the Pirates within a run of the Cards.  This same umpire made bad calls all game and really hurt the Pirates chances of winning this game.  Umpires are have big egos for the most part and try to look smart and it looked like this was the case once again.  The video replay clearly showed that he was wrong in his call and it unfairly hurt the Pirates.  Instant replay must be expanded to improve the game of baseball and it gets more upsetting every time something like this happens.

This leads to a bigger issue, which is the fact that Major League Baseball is unwilling to change any rules.  The people who run Major League Baseball wonder why the NFL has surpassed them in popularity.  Some might say that the sport of football is better than baseball.  That is entirely false because the beauty of the game of baseball is surpassed by no other sport.  The true reason why the NFL is more popular is because they know how to please their fans.  The NFL will do anything to please their fans because they realize that it is the fans that keep the game going.  Somehow the people that run the MLB fail to realize this and do not care about anything but themselves and the "traditions of the game."  Who says that traditions are always good?  A tradition of umpires getting calls wrong so frequently and sometimes completely ruining the game, a tradition of big market teams getting a completely unfair advantage over small market teams, a tradition of only allowing 4 teams in each league into the playoffs?  Are those advantageous traditions?  The MLB favors big market teams so much that it is out of proportion.  If they really want to grow the game of baseball, they would realize that the successful big market teams have already reached a certain threshold of how many fans they are going to get and it is markets like Pittsburgh that can be tapped into and a lot of money can be made.  The NFL's most popular team may be the Steelers and certainly one of the NHL's most popular teams is the Penguins, so no argument can be made that trying to make baseball succeed in Pittsburgh and other small markets is pointless.

The people that run the MLB are so short-sighted and it is really frustrating because the great game of baseball could be so much more popular than it is if they would just change some of their philosophies.  Don't get me wrong, I love the history and some of the traditions of Major League Baseball, but the failure to adapt is what is bringing America's pasttime down, and along with it comes America itself.