Top Prospects: #21-19

21.) Jordy Mercer--SS--25:  Jordy Mercer is the top shortstop prospect the Pirates have now that Chase D’arnaud is no longer prospect eligible, and is also the closest to the majors.  Concerns about Mercer rose last year because his power pretty much disappeared, and that was a big part of his prospect status.  Fortunately, his power returned this year, and in a big way.  He hit 13 home runs in Altoona before being called up to Indianapolis mid-season, hitting six more at that level, giving him 19 on the year in 491 AB’s.  This came after the year where he hit only three in 485 AB’s.  If he can continue to hit with some power and keep his OPS around .800, he will have a good chance to be called up next year if the shortstop position needs filled.  He will have to battle with D’arnaud at both levels (AAA and MLB) for a spot and playing time.  Defensively, he is capable of playing short, but he has also played a lot of second in the past.

OFP: 48 (Bench/Below-Average Regular)

20.) Gorkys Hernandez--CF--24:  The best tool that Hernandez possesses, other than his first name, is his fielding ability.  He is possibly the best defender in the Pirates system, and one of the best in all of minor league baseball.  This alone will allow him to reach the majors, at least as a 4th outfielder that can hit for a decent average.  He has good speed, once stealing 54 bases in low-A, but hasn’t stolen more than 21 in a season since.  His worst tool is his power, as he only hit one HR in 2011, and only hit two the previous year.  This may limit his potential to be an average hitter, but his fielding should give him a chance with the Pirates or another team in the future.  (I say “another team” because the Pirates have their outfield set for next year with Presley, McCutchen, and Tabata, and Marte is should be up next year as well.  This makes Hernandez expendable in trades.)

OFP: 48 (Bench/Below-Average Regular)

19.) Rudy Owens--LHP--23:  Owens jumped onto the prospect scene very quickly, but now seems to be fading in many fans’ eyes just as fast.  He had a breakout year in 2009 with a 2.10 ERA between low and high-A, and he followed that with another great year in AA in 2010, with a 2.46 ERA.  With these stats, he was awarded the Minor League Pitcher of the Year for the Pirates in both seasons.  A major reason why he was performing so well was his pinpoint control.  He had a combined K/BB ratio of 6.125/1 between 2009-2010, only to see that fall to 2.22/1 this year.  That is the main reason of his disappointing year, which resulted in a 5.05 ERA in Indianapolis.  A lot of the Pirates’ fan base expected Owens to come up mid-season and help anchor the rotation.  Instead, he stayed in AAA and continued to struggle.  If he discovers his control and strikeout pitch again, he can help the MLB rotation next year.

OFP: 51 (Bottom of Rotation Starter/Solid Reliever)

2012 Roster Possibilities: Third Base

         I’m going to start off by saying that the only option I think the Pirates should consider is Pedro Alvarez.  I realize a lot of people do not feel the same way, but Pedro is still a key player in the Pirates’ hopes to be contender.  Also, the Pirates don’t really have any other players that are capable of starting at this point.  There can be an argument made for Josh Harrison, but the fact is that a .272 average doesn’t mean anything when your on-base percentage is .281.  Harrison is a decent hitter, but he has very little power and no patience at the plate.  He doesn’t strike out very often, but he only walked three times in 204 plate appearances in the majors this year.  Josh Harrison is a good player to have on the bench, but he is not ready to start in the majors.  Some other internal options the Pirates have that have played third are Steve Pearce, Brandon Wood, Chase D’arnaud, and Matt Hague.  Pearce and Wood are likely to be non-tendered, so that leaves D’arnaud and Hague.  At the major league level, D’arnaud really struggled, posting a .217/.242/.287 line with a .528 OPS, and was a terrible fielder.  He also mainly plays shortstop, so he is definitely not an option to start at third on opening day.  Matt Hague has played almost exclusively at first for the past three years in the minors, but he was drafted out of college as a third baseman.  He’s a good hitter, but as I said in the segment about first baseman, his ultimate upside as a hitter is similar to that of Lyle Overbay in his prime.  The Pirates would love to have that next year, but it is very unlikely that Hague will realize his potential as a rookie.  However, for him to even be in consideration for a roster spot next year, Hague will have to work on his versatility.  A one position bench player is just wasting a roster spot, so Hague will have to work on his ability to play third.  
    Looking at the potential free agent market for third baseman, the only options that would be reasonable are Edwin Encarnacion and Aramis Ramirez.  The Blue Jays have a $3.5 M option on Encarnacion, which I would imagine they’d exercise.  Ramirez put up a .871 OPS this year for the Cubs, who have a $16 M option on him.  However, he can void this deal, and some reports have said that he doesn’t want to return to Chicago.  It may be a good idea for the Pirates to publicly pursue Ramirez like they did with Jorge De La Rosa and Adrian Beltre last off-season, even if they don’t have any real intentions of signing him.  This would give the fan base the feeling that the Pirates are willing to spend (which they are), and it would only help that he was a former fan favorite in Pittsburgh.  But, it is very unlikely that Ramirez would welcome a return to Pittsburgh, so don’t get your hopes up.
    So, back to Pedro Alvarez.  Alvarez had a terrible year at the plate, hitting under .200 with only four homers in 235 at bats.  Since I was just talking about Aramis Ramirez, I would like to mention that in his second season with over 200 at bats in 2000, he struggled as well, with a .256 average and only six home runs in 254 at bats.  In the year that followed, he hit for a .300 average and 34 home runs.  Alvarez did struggle more than Ramirez did, but they had similar seasons.  I’m not saying that Alvarez is going to have the same success in 2012 that Ramirez had in 2001, I’m just saying that there is a good chance he can break out of this and have a good year, so don’t lose faith in him.  
    Pedro Alvarez is definitely the best option the Pirates have at third base heading into 2012 and the future, and it would be a bad decision not to give him the chance to start everyday next season.

Top 30 Prospects: #24-22

24.) Brock Holt--2B/SS--23:  Holt was on the verge of a breakout season (he still had a solid debut in 2009) in 2010 with Bradenton before he went down with a season ending injury.  Before the injury, he was hitting an outstanding .351 with an .848 OPS in 194 at bats.  This was coming after he skipped over low-A and only had a half season with State College following his selection in the 9th round of the draft.  He followed his great stint in Bradenton with his first full season as a pro, posting a good average (.288) at Altoona, but no power.  Holt had 30 doubles, but that is pretty much the only power he will ever display.  Most of his season was spent playing second base, but he still got some time at short.  It is probable that his only future in the majors will be as a second baseman because of his lack of arm strength and range, which could be a problem considering Neil Walker may be in Pittsburgh for a long time.  Holt should start next season in Indianapolis, with a slight chance of getting a call-up as a utility player.

OFP: 48 (Bench/Below Average Regular)

23.) Zack Dodson--LHP--20:  Dodson was the 4th round pick in the 2009 draft, another pitcher prospect out of high school.  He is listed at 6’2”, but we have met him and he seemed considerably shorter, but he can still throw his fastball in the 90-93 MPH range, and there’s a chance he can add some velocity moving forward.  He has a pretty good curve but his control has gotten him into problems in the past.  During the 2010 season, his BB/9 was at 4.2, which is way too high, but he saw that number improve to 2.1 this year.  Along with his improved walk totals, Dodson also had a spectacular year at West Virginia.  He had a 2.56 ERA, but was only able to make 13 starts due to a hand injury.  He will start next season in the Bradenton rotation.

OFP: 49 (Back of Rotation/Middle Reliever)

22.) Jose Osuna--OF/1B--18:  The Pirates have a good amount of talented young players coming from the Gulf Coast League (Rookie League, mainly for players drafted out of high school and players from the Dominican and Venezuelan Summer Leagues), and Jose Osuna headlines that list.  He is very young, but has great plate discipline, as his strikeouts barely exceeded his walks.  Osuna has also displayed good power, leading the VSL in home runs as a 17 year-old in 2010, and hitting with a .511 slugging percentage in the GCL this season.  He also raised his average by 80 points this year as he moved up a level, and this helped earn him the #5 ranking in Baseball America’s top prospects for the GCL.  Osuna could start next season in State College or West Virginia, but it is more likely he starts in West Virginia so the organization can see how he adjusts to full season ball.

OFP: 52 (Solid, Everyday Regular)

2012 Roster Possibilities: Second Base

    Alright, there is only one possibility at second for the 2012 Pirates, and that is obviously Neil Walker.  The Pittsburgh Kid had another pretty good season for the Buccos, hitting .273 with a .742 OPS, and he led all NL second basemen in RBI with 83.  He also became a much better  defensive second baseman.  Some people may have seen his production at the plate a little disappointing compared to what he did last year, but you have to remember he never had a great season in the upper levels of the minors, so don’t expect too much from him.  He could very well be a .300 hitter with 20 HR’s a year someday, but that is very unlikely to happen.  His ceiling in the majors is probably about a .285 hitter with around 15-20 HR’s while playing above average defense at second and being an energy player for his team.  The Pirates were rumored to be in extension talks with Walker after they extended Tabata, but it doesn’t seem like too much progress has been made since then.  Since Walker is from Pittsburgh, he should definitely be willing to sign an extension, and it is probable that the deal will be completed this off-season.

Top 30 Prospects: #27-25

Written By: Michael Mawhinney, Editied By: Brian Hannon

Continuing with our prospect countdown, here are three position players with lots of untapped potential:

27.) Mel Rojas Jr.--CF--21:  When it comes to players like Rojas, his prospect status is based purely on his talent, not on his stats.  He has not put up strong numbers to this point, with a .246/.312./.335 line for Low-A West Virginia this year.  That’s a .646 OPS, not very impressive for a player with his talent at such a low level.  However, when he was drafted just last year out of Junior College, some scouts said that he could develop into a five tool player.  He has good speed and has showed he can play center field with a good arm, but his hitting has not lived up to expectations.  He started to turn things around at the end of this season, so that should earn him a promotion to Bradenton next year.  He is too raw to project what he could in the majors, but has enough potential and talent to take him to that level.

OFP: 50 (Borderline Solid, Everyday Starter)

26.) Harold Ramirez--CF--16:  Ramirez was the top Latin American prospect the Pirates signed this year, giving him a signing bonus of $1.05 M out of Colombia.  He was rated as the 15th best Latin American prospect by Baseball America, and is said to have plus-plus speed and a good feel for hitting.  Ramirez is all about potential so far, as he has not been able to play yet for any of the Pirates’ affiliates.  Expect him to be the starting centerfielder for the Dominican Summer League team next season.

OFP: 50 (Borderline Solid, Everyday Starter)

25.) Andrew Lambo--RF--23:  Lambo will not show up on a lot of people’s top prospects lists, but I still feel like he has a good deal of potential.  It was just two years ago in 2009 when he entered the year as the Dodgers’ #1 prospect, and Baseball America had him as the #49 prospect overall.  Since then, he has struggled at the plate, and was demoted from AAA to AA this year.  Lambo has also had to deal with a 50 game suspension in 2010 because of illegal drug use.  Despite all this, and early struggles after being sent down to AA, he began to pick things up at the end of the season.  His numbers ended up being decent for Altoona, posting a .782 OPS.  He should get a second crack at AAA next year, and his upside could carry him into the majors.  Right field has been his main position, but with the outfield looking set for Pittsburgh in the future, it is likely that he will get time at first base.  Lambo could be a dark horse prospect, and could very well have a .280 average with 25 home runs in the majors on a consistent basis if he ever reaches his potential.

OFP: 52 (Solid, Everyday Regular)

2012 Roster Possibilities: First Base

Written By: Michael Mawhinney

 After the 2010 season, the Pirates went out and signed Lyle Overbay for $5 million, which seemed expensive even then.  This was coming after a season where he hit 20 home runs, which was only the second time in his career where he reached the 20-homer mark.  He was said to be a great defender and clubhouse leader, so it seemed like a somewhat reasonable signing if he could hit around .260 with 20 homers.  However, he did none of that.  Instead, he hit .227 with eight home runs in 352 AB’s, and his fielding was decent, but not as advertised.  

While Overbay was struggling in the majors, the AAA team’s first baseman Matt Hague was hitting well over .300, and fans in Pittsburgh wanted to see him called up and Overbay benched.  This would have been a smart decision, but Hague’s long term potential seems to be that of a hitter similar to Lyle Overbay in his prime, but a worse fielder.  Calling Hague up would have helped the club because there was no way that he could have played worse than Overbay, and it would have helped the coaches see how he can handle major league pitching.  In the end, he was never called up, and he only has an outside chance of making the club out of Spring Training next season.  

Lyle Overbay was eventually designated for assignment the day after the Pirates acquired Derrek Lee from the Orioles.  Lee immediately became the everyday first baseman, and made an instant impact when he hit two home runs in his Pirate debut.  Unfortunately, he was hit by a pitch in the wrist and went on the DL for 21 days, but when he returned, he provided a major boost to the team.  For the Pirates, Lee hit for a .337/.398/.584 line with seven home runs, and did a great job in the field.  

Right now, it is unknown who will be the starting first baseman for the Pirates in 2012.  Lee is a free agent, Hague isn’t a great option as a starter, Garrett Jones can’t hit lefties, and Steve Pearce will probably be non-tendered.  GM Neal Huntington has expressed interest in resigning Derrek Lee, but that is going to require Lee to actually want to come back.  There has been talk of retirement with him, but the way he finished the season should give him the desire to play again.  If the Pirates can’t resign Lee, then they will most likely turn to the free agent market, although there aren’t many good options outside of Pujols and Fielder, and that just isn’t going to happen for the Buccos.  Also, Huntington will try to avoid another Lyle Overbay situation, so any player that is similar to him should not be considered.  Some players that they may consider are Jorge Cantu, Michael Cuddyer, Casey Kotchman, and Carlos Pena.  Cantu has the chance of being Overbay 2.0, so the Pirates won’t chase him, and Kotchman doesn’t have enough power for a team the desperately needs that aspect of the game.  That leaves Cuddyer and Pena, but their asking prices may be too high for the Pirates.  But, with the front office claiming they can raise payroll, the team may be willing to meet their demands.  Still, it is more likely that the Pirates persuade Derrek Lee to return for another year.

Another way the Pirates can acquire a new first baseman is through trades.  The Pirates have built up their minor league system to a point where there are prospects who are expendable in trades, so this route should be explored.  One player the Pirates could go after is Yonder Alonso of the Reds, who has played mainly 1B in the minors, and with Joey Votto at first, he could be included in a deal.  He would cost a lot for the Pirates, as he will only be 25 next season and was the #73 prospect in Baseball coming into this year.  ESPN analyst Jim Bowden suggested the Pirates should trade prospect Starling Marte for him, but that would not be a good deal for the Bucs.

The first base picture isn’t clear heading into next season, and the team’s best option seems to be resigning Derrek Lee.  Garrett Jones is arbitration eligible, but he is a good backup option with power, and the team could also use Matt Hague if needed.  The Pirates don’t seem to have a first base prospect that will arrive in Pittsburgh this season, so they may be in a similar predicament during the 2012 off-season as they are now.

2012 Roster Possibilities: Catchers

Written By: Michael Mawhinney

Edited By: Brian Hannon   
Over twelve segments, we will talk about each position, including position players, the starting rotation, the bullpen, and bench options, and analyzing roster options to see what our lineup could look like in 2012.  To do this, we will look at 2011 and past performance, arbitration eligible players, players with options, minor league players ready to make the jump to the majors, and potential free agents.  The Pirates took a big step forward in 2011, winning 15 more games than they did in the previous year.  If the team makes the right moves, we could possibly even see a contending team heading into 2012.  It’s not likely, but this year’s team showed it can happen.  Here’s a look at the options for Catchers:

 The Pirates used eight catchers in 2011, which is obviously a lot.  It wasn’t because the starters were under-performing, it was that they were getting injured.  Ryan Doumit had another extended stay on the disabled list, and Chris Snyder only got 96 AB’s before his season was ended because of a back injury, which required surgery.  These injuries prompted the call-ups of minor league catchers Dusty Brown, Wyatt Toregas, Eric Fryer, and Michael McKenry,  none of whom played well.  

There was a time when McKenry was starting and Fryer was the back up and the team was playing very well.  At this time, people felt comfortable with this combo heading into 2012, but both of these players are most likely back ups.  Some fans love McKenry for the energy he brings, especially after his dramatic 3-run home run that ended up winning the game back in June, and everyone seems to believe he is a great defender.  He is a decent defender, but he’s nothing special, especially because he has lots of trouble throwing out runners.  Also, he has not hit at the major league level, with an OPS of .598 this season and an average at .222. His WAR (Wins Above Replacement), which is a great stat to judge the overall performance of a player was -0.1, so he provided the production of a replacement level player. Those are not the numbers of a starter, and it would be a bad decision to have him as the starter in 2012.  As for the other options going into next season, Snyder and Doumit both have options for next year, but they are very expensive, at $6.75 M and $7.25 M, respectively.  Those prices are going to be too high for the Pirates, so it is extremely unlikely that they exercise either.  That being said, the Pirates can still try to sign them at a lower price, and the club has expressed interest in resigning Snyder.  Ryan Doumit, however, has said the chances of him returning to the Pirates are “slim”, so we have probably seen him for the last time in a Pittsburgh uniform.  The only other internal option that the Pirates have is Jason Jaramillo, who hasn’t hit well in the past, although he has been a tolerable replacement for the most part, but at 28 years old, it is unlikely he ever will be a solid starting catcher.  

The free agent market for catchers this off-season isn’t very deep, and there are no real upgrades over Snyder or Doumit.  The Pirates could explore the trade market for catchers, but, as in the past, teams will most likely ask for a lot in return for a good catcher.  With that being said, the best bet the Pirates have is to use the $750 K buyout on Snyder’s option, and resign him for a lower price.  The Pirates have a few guys that would be decent back-ups in McKenry, Jaramillo, and Fryer, so there is no point in attempting to sign anyone else through free agency.