2012 Roster Possibilities: Right Field

The opening day right fielder for the Pirates in 2012 will almost certainly be Jose Tabata.  He spent a great deal of time on the disabled list during the 2011 season, and didn’t produce up to expectations when he was on the field.  In his rookie season, he hit .299 with a .746 OPS, and finished eighth in Rookie of the Year voting.  However, he seemed to take a step backwards in 2011 hitting only .266 with a .711 OPS.  Tabata’s defense also suffered a little, with his fielding percentage dropping from .995 to .988, while also seeing his range factor per nine innings decrease as well.  Despite this, the Pirates signed Tabata to an extension that could be worth $37.25 million over nine years, and is guaranteed to be $14.75 million over six years with the other three years being club options.
There was a time when Tabata was a teenager where some scouts considered him a “Manny Ramirez” type player, but his offense never developed to that point, especially his power.  His power showed up early in the season this year, with three homers in his first 15 games, but he only hit one more during the remainder of the season.  Unless he makes some major adjustments in his swing, I don’t see him ever becoming any kind of a power hitter.  

Looking at his monthly splits, Tabata hit a combined .293 in 150 at bats between June and August, and remember he didn’t play in July.  This shows that he very well could have been in a slump between April and May, where he batted a combined .249 in 169 at bats, and can definitely return to 2010 form in 2012.  However, the only time his OPS exceeded his 2010 number of .746 was in August, where he had a .798 OPS.  Not surprisingly, August was the month where he posted his highest slugging percentage, which was .435, and also the only time where that number was over .400.  This shows that he had very little power throughout the year, which could have been a cause to his down numbers.  

There is a good chance that the Pirates will face a problem in 2012 if and when Starling Marte is deemed ready for the majors.  Marte would most likely be put in as the regular left fielder when he is called up, and that would cause the Pirates to choose between Presley and Tabata as the everyday right fielder.  If Presley and Tabata’s numbers are similar, the better option would no doubt be Tabata because he has the higher long term upside, plus he was signed to a long contract extension, so it would be nice to see him start.  Marte is far from guaranteed a call up this year, but if he is, the Pirates will have a decision to make in right field.

The Pirates are going into the offseason with their outfield already set.  McCutchen will be in center, and Presley and Tabata will man the corner outfield positions, with Presley most likely in left and Tabata in right.  Tabata has a lot he needs to prove next year, but his numbers towards the end of 2011 show that he is definitely capable of handling an everyday job for the Pirates, and possibly becoming an above average major league player.

Top 30 Prospects #18-16

18.) Matt Curry--1B--23:  To be honest, I had no idea who Matt Curry was coming into the 2011 season.  He was a 16th round selection as a college senior in 2010, and this was actually the second time the Pirates drafted him, doing so in 2008 as well.  He is said to be a “bat first” player, meaning that he can only hit, but he has a career .994 fielding percentage in two years in the minors.  Curry hit well in 2010 after being drafted, finishing with a .299/.421/.477 line in State College, but good college hitters should perform well in that league.  He started 2011 in West Virginia, where he also was expected to hit well because he came out of college.  At West Virginia, he was unstoppable, hitting .361 with nine HR’s and a 1.148 OPS in 155 AB’s.  This prompted his call up to Altoona, skipping over high-A because they wanted to give him and Aaron Baker (now in the Orioles organization) an everyday position.  He struggled initially, but got hot after a month, only to finish the season terribly.  In his time with Altoona, he hit .242 with six HR’s and a .694 OPS in 302 AB’s.  This was disappointing, but he did still skip over a level.  He should start 2012 in Altoona again, and could be the long term answer at first base that the Pirates have been looking for over the last few years, hitting for average and 15-25 HR’s.

OFP: 50 (Fringe Bench/Regular)

17.) Jarek Cunningham--2B--21:  A lot of Cunningham’s potential comes from the fact that he can be a power hitting middle-infielder.  He got off to a really hot start this year with his power, but began to slump around June, and this continued until July when he went to the DL with concussion symptoms.  His overall line for the year was .260/.325/.514, and this includes the two games he played in the rookie league during a rehab stint.  He doesn’t hit for a high average and he will strike out a good amount, but this can be overlooked if he has a high OPS and continues to hit for power.  It is likely he will begin next season in AA as the regular second baseman.  If everything goes right for Cunningham, he could turn out to be a player that resembles Dan Uggla, a player who won’t hit for a high average, but is that rare second baseman who can hit for power.

OFP: 52 (Solid, Everyday Regular)

16.) Bryan Morris--RHP--24:  Morris is an interesting prospect.  He was a 1st round draft pick by the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2006, and came over to the Pirates as the prize in the Jason Bay trade.  Since then, he has underperformed compared to the “front of the rotation starter” that the Pirates envisioned when they acquired him.  In his first full season in the organization, he did terrible in high-A while battling injuries, then returned for another season, where he was dominant before being called up to AA.  He pitched respectably there, and again started the season there this year.  After making three starts, he strained his oblique and did not return until May.  He came back and struggled as a starter, and was moved to the bullpen permanently.  As a starter, his ERA was 6.04, but it was 2.05 out of the bullpen.  Former Director of Player Development Kyle Stark hinted that Morris will remain in the bullpen, but there is still a slight chance he can still be a starter.  Morris has dominant stuff out of the ‘pen, and this could help him move to the majors quickly next season.  He is already on the 40 man roster, and will start next season in the Indianapolis bullpen.  The best case scenario for Morris could be as a great set-up man or possible closer in the future.

OFP: 53 (Above-Average Bullpen Pitcher)

2012 Roster Possibilities: Center Field

One of the main objectives that the Pirates need to deal with this off-season is extending Andrew McCutchen.  He is the best player on the team now, and is an emerging star in the MLB.  In 2011, he made his first All-Star appearance and took many steps forward into becoming an elite center fielder, both offensively and defensively.  

Before the All-Star break, McCutchen was having a great season, hitting for a .291/.390/.505 line with 14 home runs and an .895 OPS.  However, he had a bad slump after this, with a .216/.330/.392 line, along with nine home runs.  This gave him a .259/.364/.456 line with 23 home runs and an .820 OPS for the season.  He had career bests in home runs, RBI, and walks, but also had career worsts in strikeouts, average, and on-base percentage.  His on-base percentage was actually only one point worse than the previous two seasons, so that’s not a concern.  

Most of his numbers are similar to the career numbers that he has put up, and his OPS increased from last year.  His slugging percentage was also just below his career number of .458, even though he had a career high in home runs.  It was good to see Cutch leading the team in home runs (even though you don’t want 23 home runs to lead the team), but many people think that his slump happened because he was swinging for the fences.  Fortunately, that may not have had too much of an effect.  He got on-base just as frequently as he has in the past and also increased his OPS and run producing ability, so his season should not be viewed as a disappointment.  His WAR, which is a player’s Wins Above Replacement and is used to find a player’s overall value, improved to 5.5 this year, which is up from 4.0 last year.  

A major reason for this improvement was the great defense he played this year, after struggling defensively in his first two years.  McCutchen’s defensive WAR was -0.2 in 2009 and -0.4 in 2010, meaning he cost the Pirates 0.6 games in his first two years because of his defense.  That doesn’t seem like a lot, but it means a bench player would have played better defense.  In 2011, his defensive WAR improved to 0.7, which is a huge increase from 2010.  His fielding percentage was slightly below the league average in center field, but his range factor per nine innings of 2.81 was far above the league average of 2.55.  Cutch has some of the best speed in the MLB, and that will always help you in the outfield.  However, he hasn’t taken advantage of his speed on the base paths, resulting in only 23 stolen bases in 33 attempts in 2011.  If you are one of the fastest players in the league, you need to be stealing more bases.  McCutchen should always have the green light when he is on base, which should result in at least 30-40 stolen bases a year, if not more.  

Now back to extending McCutchen’s contract.  There has been talk of a contract that would be around six years for about $50 Million, which would buy out his arbitration years and three years of free agency.  The Pirates have the resources to make this deal, and there should be no hesitation on the team’s part to sign there best player.  He is a major piece in the rebuilding process and in the team’s future, and the team cannot risk losing him once he hits the free agent market.  

Another interesting stat that I saw on PiratesProspects was that when the Pirates won this year, McCutchen batted .337 with a 1.076 OPS, and when they lost, he had a .198 average and an OPS of .618.  Clearly, the team plays better when McCutchen plays better.  If he can play next year the way he played the first half of the 2011 season, McCutchen will be one of the best center fielders in the majors, and will provide a big boost to the offense and defense.  Signing him will not only satisfy the fan base, but it will also give the Pirates a player that can help the team get back into competing for the playoffs for years to come.

2012 Roster Possibilities: Left Field

The three players in the Pirates’ outfield are already set going into 2012, and the starting left fielder will either be Alex Presley or Jose Tabata, with the other one playing right field.  The most likely scenario would be Alex Presley as the starter in left, where he played for almost all of last season.  He has the speed to cover the large amount of space in PNC Park’s left field, and has proven that he can handle the position.  
Offensively, Presley had a solid season in 2011.  His overall line was .298/.339/.465 with an .804 OPS, which is encouraging considering he was an unknown prospect coming into 2010.  He has only had two successful seasons as a professional, so his upside is still unknown.  If his performance is legitimate, he could be a .290-.300 hitter with an OPS in the low .800s.  If it isn’t legitimate, his upside could be that of a fourth outfielder.  I feel like he will ultimately end up as a .270-.280 hitter that has an OPS in the .700s, most likely playing for a below average team.  Fans in Pittsburgh love Presley, but I wouldn’t expect him to remain on the team past 2012 or 2013.  There is still a possibility that he will stay, but the Pirates’ top position prospect, Starling Marte, is expected to be called up sometime next season, and should be the everyday left fielder.  Presley could still remain a starter after Marte’s promotion if he has better production than Tabata, which is possible.  However, the Pirates may be more inclined to continue starting Tabata because he has the higher upside compared to Presley

There aren’t any free agents that I could envision the Pirates pursuing as a starter, so there should be no doubt that Presley will start.  Ryan Ludwick, who the Pirates acquired at the trading deadline, will be a free agent this offseason, and he won’t have a starting position in Pittsburgh.  This makes it very doubtful that he will return, and I have to say that his acquisition was pointless.  He wasn’t going to get everyday playing time once Presley and Tabata were both healthy, and he wasn’t even performing well for the Padres.  The trade just didn’t make much sense from the beginning, and should have never happened.  Also, the Pirates have Gorkys Hernandez as a bench option, as he is a tremendous defender, but has limited offensive upside.  He could possibly step in as a starter if Presley, Tabata, or McCutchen go down with an injury, but he is better fit as a fourth outfielder.

Presley will begin the 2012 campaign as the starting left fielder, but if and when Starling Marte is ready to be promoted, he will either be benched, moved to right field, or traded.  Marte could make a huge impact in the Pirates lineup, with great fielding and the ability to hit over .300 with 10-15 home run power.  He had the fourth most hits in all of minor league baseball in 2011, hitting for a .332 average and .870 OPS.  He will be the most anticipated call-up for the Pirates since Pedro Alvarez, but not as hyped.  Marte has to cut down on his strikeouts and try to take more walks, but he is a major threat at the top of the lineup with great speed and great hitting skills.  If he continues to hit well in the minors, I would expect to see him up by late June or early July, and immediately stepping in as the starting left fielder.

2012 Roster Possibilities: Shortstop

    A lot of people have different opinions on what the Pirates’ shortstop situation.  There was controversy before the season, during the season, and now.  The Pirates went into the off-season following the 2010 season looking for a shortstop upgrade after a very inconsistent campaign by Ronny Cedeno.  The team drafted shortstop Josh Rodriguez as the first pick in the Rule 5 draft, but he only had 12 at bats before he was gone.  Fans were disappointed when the team missed opportunities to acquire players like J.J. Hardy and Jason Bartlett, and instead stuck with Cedeno.  Bartlett’s season did not meet expectations, but Hardy played far above expectations.  He hit 30 HR’s, something that would have been great for the Pirates this year.  However, it is far from guaranteed that he would have had the same success with the Pirates.  Cedeno, on the other hand, saw a slight drop off in offensive production, but he played above average defense all year, and stayed consistent for the most part.  He is probably a little worse than a league average shortstop, but that is acceptable for a 90 loss team.  
    When Cedeno went down with an injury in early July, rookie Chase D’arnaud took over as the everyday shortstop.  He played terribly, but if someone would’ve said that D’arnaud would be in the majors this year after his performance in AA during the 2010 season, they would have been laughed at.  But because of his play for the Pirates this year, he should start 2012 in AAA.  He wasn’t major league ready in 2011, so he will have to work on many aspects of his game.  In the minors, he was a decent fielder, but that changed when he reached the majors.  He saw his career minor league fielding percentage at short of .957 drop to .936 in the majors.  He also hit very poorly, with a .217 average and .528 OPS.  Clearly, he wasn’t ready to be in a Pirates uniform.  Brandon Wood and Pedro Ciriaco both contributed at shortstop, but Wood will most likely be non-tendered and Ciriaco is at best a utility player.
    In the current free agent market, there are multiple options that the Pirates could look at.  I found ten names that the front office may consider, and I have put that into five different groups, including players that : have slightly better production than Cedeno, have contract options but are slight upgrades, are big offensive upgrades, aren’t going to happen, and the Jack Wilson group.

Slightly Better Production Than Cedeno
This group consists of Clint Barmes, Edgar Renteria, and Jamey Carrol.  All three of these players have the ability to be an offensive upgrade to Cedeno, but they haven’t had great numbers.  Each player had an OPS higher than Cedeno, with Barmes and Carrol hovering around .700 in 2011, while Renteria had similar production to Cedeno.  The Pirates will only consider players that are they consider definite upgrades to Cedeno and that are affordable, so that pretty much puts Renteria out of the picture.  Barmes would give the Pirates a power upgrade with similar defense, and Carrol would give the team a guy that knows how to get on base.  Barmes is a decent option and probably the most likely in this group because the Dodgers may want to keep Carrol, at least as a bench option.
Players With Contract Options
This group consists of Yuniesky Betancourt and Rafael Furcal.  Betancourt has a $6 M option, and Furcal has a $12 M option, both being club options.  It is hard to imagine either the Brewers or the Cardinals exercising these options, but I believe the Brewers may try to sign Betancourt at a lower price.  That leaves Furcal, and he would not be a good sign for the Pirates.  His offensive numbers aren’t much better than Cedeno’s, and his defense is much worse.  It does not seem likely that either of these players will end up in a Pirates uniform.
Big Offensive Upgrades
Alex Gonzalez and Marco Scutaro make up this group.  Gonzalez would provide a big power boost at the shortstop position, along with decent defense.  Scutaro had a very good offensive year in 2011, hitting .299 with an .781 OPS, which are both above his career averages.  At 35, it is unlikely he would reproduce these numbers.  That could be leverage for the Pirates, but unfortunately the Red Sox have a $6 M club option on him, and unless they are able to sign Jose Reyes, they will most likely exercise that option.  Gonzalez would be a nice player to have, but the market for above average shortstops is usually competitive.
Not Happening
This group is Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins.  Reyes had an amazing year, and Rollins has already expressed interest in resigning with the Phillies, so don’t get your hopes up.  Reyes will either resign with the Mets or go to a big market team, so the Pirates really have no chance at either of these players.
Jack Wilson Group
This group is made up of only Jack Wilson, and I only included it because I couldn’t resist.  I don’t believe there is any chance we will see Wilson in a Pirates uniform again, but it’s still a nice thought.  He is terrible offensively and similar to Cedeno defensively, and the Pirates have too many internal options to consider Wilson for a bench spot.  Sorry, but Jack Wilson’s days with the Pirates will continue to be no more.

There could be many teams looking for a shortstop, so that may make any free agent signing difficult.  The most likely options for the Pirates to consider are Barmes, Carrol, Gonzalez, and Scutaro.  I believe the best option out of this group would be Alex Gonzalez because he could provide a big power boost, along with good defense at short.  He would definitely be affordable, so the Pirates should go after him and make a competitive offer.

Even if the Pirates don’t find an external option at short, they still have Cedeno to start.  He is a decent option with good defense, and that would be a good fit for a pitch-to-contact pitching staff.  Pedro Ciriaco is out of options, so there is a good chance he will be on the team next year, probably as a bench player.  They also have Chase D’arnaud, Jordy Mercer, and Brock Holt as options, and all three should start in AAA.  It would be nice to see Mercer up sometime, as he has power and is a good shortstop defensively.  Mercer could be a player similar to Alex Gonzalez, so it would be nice if the Pirates could sign him to mentor Mercer.

There have been many calls for the Pirates to replace Cedeno at shortstop, and they will have another chance this offseason.  There are multiple free agents, but Alex Gonzalez would be the best option.  If the Pirates don’t exercise Cedeno’s $3 M option, they will definitely make a competitive offer to a free agent, most likely as one to two year deal.  They have internal options, but no one seems ready to take over as a full time starter, so a player like Gonzalez would be a big help for the team.

Top Prospects: #21-19

21.) Jordy Mercer--SS--25:  Jordy Mercer is the top shortstop prospect the Pirates have now that Chase D’arnaud is no longer prospect eligible, and is also the closest to the majors.  Concerns about Mercer rose last year because his power pretty much disappeared, and that was a big part of his prospect status.  Fortunately, his power returned this year, and in a big way.  He hit 13 home runs in Altoona before being called up to Indianapolis mid-season, hitting six more at that level, giving him 19 on the year in 491 AB’s.  This came after the year where he hit only three in 485 AB’s.  If he can continue to hit with some power and keep his OPS around .800, he will have a good chance to be called up next year if the shortstop position needs filled.  He will have to battle with D’arnaud at both levels (AAA and MLB) for a spot and playing time.  Defensively, he is capable of playing short, but he has also played a lot of second in the past.

OFP: 48 (Bench/Below-Average Regular)

20.) Gorkys Hernandez--CF--24:  The best tool that Hernandez possesses, other than his first name, is his fielding ability.  He is possibly the best defender in the Pirates system, and one of the best in all of minor league baseball.  This alone will allow him to reach the majors, at least as a 4th outfielder that can hit for a decent average.  He has good speed, once stealing 54 bases in low-A, but hasn’t stolen more than 21 in a season since.  His worst tool is his power, as he only hit one HR in 2011, and only hit two the previous year.  This may limit his potential to be an average hitter, but his fielding should give him a chance with the Pirates or another team in the future.  (I say “another team” because the Pirates have their outfield set for next year with Presley, McCutchen, and Tabata, and Marte is should be up next year as well.  This makes Hernandez expendable in trades.)

OFP: 48 (Bench/Below-Average Regular)

19.) Rudy Owens--LHP--23:  Owens jumped onto the prospect scene very quickly, but now seems to be fading in many fans’ eyes just as fast.  He had a breakout year in 2009 with a 2.10 ERA between low and high-A, and he followed that with another great year in AA in 2010, with a 2.46 ERA.  With these stats, he was awarded the Minor League Pitcher of the Year for the Pirates in both seasons.  A major reason why he was performing so well was his pinpoint control.  He had a combined K/BB ratio of 6.125/1 between 2009-2010, only to see that fall to 2.22/1 this year.  That is the main reason of his disappointing year, which resulted in a 5.05 ERA in Indianapolis.  A lot of the Pirates’ fan base expected Owens to come up mid-season and help anchor the rotation.  Instead, he stayed in AAA and continued to struggle.  If he discovers his control and strikeout pitch again, he can help the MLB rotation next year.

OFP: 51 (Bottom of Rotation Starter/Solid Reliever)

2012 Roster Possibilities: Third Base

         I’m going to start off by saying that the only option I think the Pirates should consider is Pedro Alvarez.  I realize a lot of people do not feel the same way, but Pedro is still a key player in the Pirates’ hopes to be contender.  Also, the Pirates don’t really have any other players that are capable of starting at this point.  There can be an argument made for Josh Harrison, but the fact is that a .272 average doesn’t mean anything when your on-base percentage is .281.  Harrison is a decent hitter, but he has very little power and no patience at the plate.  He doesn’t strike out very often, but he only walked three times in 204 plate appearances in the majors this year.  Josh Harrison is a good player to have on the bench, but he is not ready to start in the majors.  Some other internal options the Pirates have that have played third are Steve Pearce, Brandon Wood, Chase D’arnaud, and Matt Hague.  Pearce and Wood are likely to be non-tendered, so that leaves D’arnaud and Hague.  At the major league level, D’arnaud really struggled, posting a .217/.242/.287 line with a .528 OPS, and was a terrible fielder.  He also mainly plays shortstop, so he is definitely not an option to start at third on opening day.  Matt Hague has played almost exclusively at first for the past three years in the minors, but he was drafted out of college as a third baseman.  He’s a good hitter, but as I said in the segment about first baseman, his ultimate upside as a hitter is similar to that of Lyle Overbay in his prime.  The Pirates would love to have that next year, but it is very unlikely that Hague will realize his potential as a rookie.  However, for him to even be in consideration for a roster spot next year, Hague will have to work on his versatility.  A one position bench player is just wasting a roster spot, so Hague will have to work on his ability to play third.  
    Looking at the potential free agent market for third baseman, the only options that would be reasonable are Edwin Encarnacion and Aramis Ramirez.  The Blue Jays have a $3.5 M option on Encarnacion, which I would imagine they’d exercise.  Ramirez put up a .871 OPS this year for the Cubs, who have a $16 M option on him.  However, he can void this deal, and some reports have said that he doesn’t want to return to Chicago.  It may be a good idea for the Pirates to publicly pursue Ramirez like they did with Jorge De La Rosa and Adrian Beltre last off-season, even if they don’t have any real intentions of signing him.  This would give the fan base the feeling that the Pirates are willing to spend (which they are), and it would only help that he was a former fan favorite in Pittsburgh.  But, it is very unlikely that Ramirez would welcome a return to Pittsburgh, so don’t get your hopes up.
    So, back to Pedro Alvarez.  Alvarez had a terrible year at the plate, hitting under .200 with only four homers in 235 at bats.  Since I was just talking about Aramis Ramirez, I would like to mention that in his second season with over 200 at bats in 2000, he struggled as well, with a .256 average and only six home runs in 254 at bats.  In the year that followed, he hit for a .300 average and 34 home runs.  Alvarez did struggle more than Ramirez did, but they had similar seasons.  I’m not saying that Alvarez is going to have the same success in 2012 that Ramirez had in 2001, I’m just saying that there is a good chance he can break out of this and have a good year, so don’t lose faith in him.  
    Pedro Alvarez is definitely the best option the Pirates have at third base heading into 2012 and the future, and it would be a bad decision not to give him the chance to start everyday next season.