If you're reading this, you may have noticed that I haven't posted anything since the trade deadline. It wasn't because the Pirates started to struggle not long after the deadline, I have just been very busy with work, school, and sports. I will try to start posting more from now on for Bloggin Buccos.
Now on to the post. The Pirates acquired Travis Snider from the Blue Jays at this year's trading deadline in exchange for reliever Brad Lincoln, and you can see my analysis of that trade in this link. Snider struggled after the trade, with a batting line of .250/.324/.328, along with a .652 OPS and only one home run. The biggest disappointment of his time with the Pirates was his power production, which can be seen with his .328 slugging percentage and .078 ISO (SLG-AVG, used to determine a player's isolated power). He had only seven extra base hits in 128 at bats, and this is coming after a career .565 slugging percentage in 696 at bats at the AAA level. Expectations were much higher for him from most fans, but Snider will still only be 25 years old for all of the 2013 season, so there is still time for that power to be shown for the Pirates.
2010 was the best year in the majors for Snider, and that came when he was only 22 years old. He had a batting line of .255/.304/.463, with a .767 OPS and 14 home runs in 298 at bats. If I estimate the average number of at bats from an entire season to be 550 at bats, Snider's home run production in 2010 would be about 26 home runs at this number of at bats. That's a pretty good number for such a young player in the AL East, and would have put him among the best power hitters for the Pirates in 2012. This may not mean much, but the point I'm trying to get across is that the power is there with Snider. He has the ability to change a game with one swing of the bat, with possibly the second best raw power on the team, behind only Pedro Alvarez. And, the only way that Snider is going to be able to reach this power potential is by getting the chance to play everyday.
The only guaranteed outfield spot heading into the 2013 season obviously is held by center fielder Andrew McCutchen, with the competition still wide open for left and right field. It is doubtful the Pirates pursue a starting outfielder in free agency this offseason, which means the players fighting for these two positions will be Snider, Starling Marte, Alex Presley and Jose Tabata. Marte was about as expected in his debut, with a 104 OPS+ (100 being average), but had a very high, Alvarez-esque strikeout rate of 29.9%. Regardless of that stat, he will most likely get the chance to be the everyday starting left fielder going into the 2013 season. Presley and Tabata both had their fair share of struggles in 2012, with -0.1 and -0.2 WAR values, respectively. Tabata did have a higher on base percentage, however, with a .315 mark, compared to Presley's .279. Snider's on base percentage of .324 with the Pirates was the highest out of this group.
Assuming that Marte will being the starting left fielder in 2013, the competition comes down to Alex Presley, Jose Tabata, and Travis Snider. This is a group of young players that have yet to play a full season in the majors. So, who deserves the job? Let's look at what each player can bring to the table.
Alex Presley: Presley is a speedy outfielder who has had some success at the major league level back in 2011 when he put up an .804 OPS. However, he really struggled to get on base in 2012, and a lot of these struggles came as the leadoff hitter, where he had a .283 OBP in 243 at bats. He did hit for some power, with ten homers in 346 at bats, but his long term upside might be as a good fourth outfielder.
Jose Tabata: Tabata had an impressive rookie season in 2010 when he finished 8th in rookie of the year voting, but his production has diminished since then. He had a very disappointing first half in 2012, with a line of .230/.295/.341, along with a .636 OPS in 252 at bats. But, he came on strong in limited time in the second half of the season after time in the minors, with a line of .284/.376/.370 and a .747 OPS in 81 at bats. Tabata signed a six year, $14.75 million deal in 2011, along with three option years that could keep him with the team until 2019. Tabata was once the #27 prospect in baseball, according to Baseball America, back in 2007, and #75 in 2009. He contract was very team friendly when he signed, and his struggles have come before his age 24 season. He still has a lot of time to return to his 2010 form and even better himself from that, but he may benefit from some time in the minors to work out some problems. If not, Tabata's potential upside and team possible team friendly deal could allow him to be a trade piece over the offseason.
Travis Snider: There is no doubt that Travis Snider has the highest upside out of these three players. He has the potential to be a .280 hitter, along with 25-35 home runs a year. He has a career .976 OPS in AAA and has been able to get on base at all levels, and I personally believe that most people who have consistent success in AAA will find success in the MLB if given ample opportunities. Snider has never been given more than 298 at bats in five years in the majors, and when he did get 298 at bats, he had a .767 OPS and 14 homers as a 22 year old. Snider has the chance to join McCutchen, Alvarez and Jones in what could be a formidable middle of the order threat for the Pirates. But, Snider isn't going to be able to reach his potential by watching the game from the bench. In many other activities, you can learn a lot from watching, but in baseball, you are only going to improve by getting consistent playing time. Snider brings so much more to the plate than either Tabata or Presley, and it would be foolish to waste the natural talent that Snider has. The Pirates haven't had four players with 25+ home runs on the same team for a long time, if not for the first time ever, and Snider is the only guy in the system that could help the team accomplish this.
Travis Snider has the potential to be an all-star, and at 25 years old, he has plenty of time to develop into the player that he has the chance to be. But, the only way he can do this is by getting the opportunity to play everyday. Tabata and Presley don't have the upside that Snider has, and the best route for the Pirates with these three players heading into 2013 is starting Snider in right, using Presley as the fourth outfielder, and allowing Tabata to work out his struggles in AAA. This gives the Pirates the best opportunity to have a legitimate offensive threat, with McCutchen, Alvarez, Jones, Walker, and Snider and Marte if they can even approach their potential.
Snider could be the next power hitting all-star from the Pirates, but the only way to find out if he can do this is by giving him the chance to succeed by playing everyday.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
Sunday, November 4, 2012
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
Nothing To Hate About the Snider-Lincoln Trade
Late last night, the Pirates acquired outfielder Travis Snider for reliever Brad Lincoln in a one-for-one trade. For the Pirates, there is nothing to hate about this deal. Whenever you can trade a 27 year-old reliever for a 24 year old potential All-Star who is under team control until 2015, you have to make that deal. Just like how closers are overvalued, other relievers will be overvalued as well.
WAR is a great stat to determine a player's overall value. McCutchen's WAR this year is 5.4, which is second in the MLB behind Mike Trout (6.2). Lincoln's WAR this year is at 1.2, while Snider's WAR is at 0.2. Yes, Lincoln's is much higher, but Snider only has 36 at bats this season in ten games. Also, as a reliever, Lincoln's WAR is almost as high as it will ever be. Aroldis Chapman, now the Red's closer, is having an incredible season out of the bullpen, and his WAR is at 2.4. That number is greatly increased because he has 21 saves now, and would be lower if he remained in a set-up role. Personally, I don't think Lincoln will ever have a season like Chapman is having, and I doubt Lincoln's WAR will ever reach 2.0 unless he is made a starter or reliever. To put that in perspective, an average major league starter's (position player) WAR is about 2.0. So, at his peak value, Lincoln has the same worth as an average major league starter. With Snider, you have a guy that could be a perennial All-Star candidate, with Baseball-Reference putting an All-Star's WAR at 5+. It can definitely be argued that Snider won't be an All-Star, but even if he is just an average starter, he will probably still provide more value than Lincoln ever will as a reliever.
Another stat that I want to throw out there is 27.5%. That is the percentage of games that Brad Lincoln has appeared in for the Pirates. When coming out of the bullpen, Lincoln averages 1.55 innings. So, for less than 30% of the Pirates games, Brad Lincoln came in and pitched an average of less than two innings. In exchange for this, the Pirates got a guy that could play every inning of every game, and who could do very well.
There is the option that Brad Lincoln could start for the Blue Jays, which could increase his value. But, how would he perform in the rotation? In five starts this year, Lincoln had a 6.08 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and only compiled 23.2 innings. That's less than five innings a start. If he struggled this much in the NL Central, how is he going to have more success in the AL East, the best division in baseball? An example of the difference between these two divisions: A.J. Burnett had an ERA of 5.15 in his last year in the AL East, one year after he posted a 5.26 ERA. Now, as a 35 year old in the NL Central, Burnett has a 3.52 ERA. It is doubtful that Lincoln will become an above average starter, as he is 27 years-old and moving to a much stronger division, so the only way he could increase his value is moving to the closer role.
Now on to Travis Snider. I feel the same thing would apply to Snider, moving from the AL East to the NL Central. He's going to face easier pitching in his new division, which could easily better his production. He's also moving into PNC Park, where the short deck in right field could help his power numbers moving forward.
Here is something we can't forget, just three years ago in 2009, Snider was the #6 prospect in all of baseball. He has yet to be given more than 300 at bats in one season at the major league level. When he was given 298 at-bats as a 22 year-old, he hit 14 home runs. Now let's look at his AAA numbers. In 183 games and 696 at bats, Snider has a batting line of .333/.412/.565, good for a .976 OPS, along with 56 doubles, 33 home runs, 155 RBI, and 17 stolen bases. Even though he played in the traditionally hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, those numbers are still outstanding. This season, in 56 games and 209 at bats at AAA, Snider has a line of .335/.423/.598, with a 1.021 OPS, 13 home runs, and 56 RBI. This is where I would like to remind everyone that Travis Snider is 24 years-old. He is only eight months older than Starling Marte, and is a year younger than Pedro Alvarez.
The Pirates needed an outfielder or first baseman that could hit and hit for power, and this is what they potentially got with Snider. Now that Snider is the team's starting right fielder, Garrett Jones can move to first base and possibly platoon with Casey McGehee, and the team won't have to start Alex Presley and his .651 OPS anymore in the outfield. This trade will only improve the offense, and could add a lot more power to the lineup.
In no way am I trying to bash Brad Lincoln in this post, I'm just saying that relievers are generally overvalued, and that the team got a great return in this trade. Lincoln is a great guy and will be missed, but the Pirates have options in AAA that could make the team better right now. It is likely that one of these players is called up today to take the bullpen spot that Lincoln left. My guess is that it will be Bryan Morris, who has been dominant out of the 'pen. It could also be lefty Doug Slaten, but they would have to make a move on the 40-man roster for that to happen.
The Pirates traded a reliever for a player that could be a All-Star in the Lincoln-Snider trade. Lincoln appeared in less than 30% of the Pirates' games, and Snider could be an everyday game-changer with his hitting ability. Not much bad can be said about this trade, and it could very well become one of the best trades that General Manager Neal Huntington makes for the Pirates.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below
WAR is a great stat to determine a player's overall value. McCutchen's WAR this year is 5.4, which is second in the MLB behind Mike Trout (6.2). Lincoln's WAR this year is at 1.2, while Snider's WAR is at 0.2. Yes, Lincoln's is much higher, but Snider only has 36 at bats this season in ten games. Also, as a reliever, Lincoln's WAR is almost as high as it will ever be. Aroldis Chapman, now the Red's closer, is having an incredible season out of the bullpen, and his WAR is at 2.4. That number is greatly increased because he has 21 saves now, and would be lower if he remained in a set-up role. Personally, I don't think Lincoln will ever have a season like Chapman is having, and I doubt Lincoln's WAR will ever reach 2.0 unless he is made a starter or reliever. To put that in perspective, an average major league starter's (position player) WAR is about 2.0. So, at his peak value, Lincoln has the same worth as an average major league starter. With Snider, you have a guy that could be a perennial All-Star candidate, with Baseball-Reference putting an All-Star's WAR at 5+. It can definitely be argued that Snider won't be an All-Star, but even if he is just an average starter, he will probably still provide more value than Lincoln ever will as a reliever.
Another stat that I want to throw out there is 27.5%. That is the percentage of games that Brad Lincoln has appeared in for the Pirates. When coming out of the bullpen, Lincoln averages 1.55 innings. So, for less than 30% of the Pirates games, Brad Lincoln came in and pitched an average of less than two innings. In exchange for this, the Pirates got a guy that could play every inning of every game, and who could do very well.
There is the option that Brad Lincoln could start for the Blue Jays, which could increase his value. But, how would he perform in the rotation? In five starts this year, Lincoln had a 6.08 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and only compiled 23.2 innings. That's less than five innings a start. If he struggled this much in the NL Central, how is he going to have more success in the AL East, the best division in baseball? An example of the difference between these two divisions: A.J. Burnett had an ERA of 5.15 in his last year in the AL East, one year after he posted a 5.26 ERA. Now, as a 35 year old in the NL Central, Burnett has a 3.52 ERA. It is doubtful that Lincoln will become an above average starter, as he is 27 years-old and moving to a much stronger division, so the only way he could increase his value is moving to the closer role.
Now on to Travis Snider. I feel the same thing would apply to Snider, moving from the AL East to the NL Central. He's going to face easier pitching in his new division, which could easily better his production. He's also moving into PNC Park, where the short deck in right field could help his power numbers moving forward.
Here is something we can't forget, just three years ago in 2009, Snider was the #6 prospect in all of baseball. He has yet to be given more than 300 at bats in one season at the major league level. When he was given 298 at-bats as a 22 year-old, he hit 14 home runs. Now let's look at his AAA numbers. In 183 games and 696 at bats, Snider has a batting line of .333/.412/.565, good for a .976 OPS, along with 56 doubles, 33 home runs, 155 RBI, and 17 stolen bases. Even though he played in the traditionally hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, those numbers are still outstanding. This season, in 56 games and 209 at bats at AAA, Snider has a line of .335/.423/.598, with a 1.021 OPS, 13 home runs, and 56 RBI. This is where I would like to remind everyone that Travis Snider is 24 years-old. He is only eight months older than Starling Marte, and is a year younger than Pedro Alvarez.
The Pirates needed an outfielder or first baseman that could hit and hit for power, and this is what they potentially got with Snider. Now that Snider is the team's starting right fielder, Garrett Jones can move to first base and possibly platoon with Casey McGehee, and the team won't have to start Alex Presley and his .651 OPS anymore in the outfield. This trade will only improve the offense, and could add a lot more power to the lineup.
In no way am I trying to bash Brad Lincoln in this post, I'm just saying that relievers are generally overvalued, and that the team got a great return in this trade. Lincoln is a great guy and will be missed, but the Pirates have options in AAA that could make the team better right now. It is likely that one of these players is called up today to take the bullpen spot that Lincoln left. My guess is that it will be Bryan Morris, who has been dominant out of the 'pen. It could also be lefty Doug Slaten, but they would have to make a move on the 40-man roster for that to happen.
The Pirates traded a reliever for a player that could be a All-Star in the Lincoln-Snider trade. Lincoln appeared in less than 30% of the Pirates' games, and Snider could be an everyday game-changer with his hitting ability. Not much bad can be said about this trade, and it could very well become one of the best trades that General Manager Neal Huntington makes for the Pirates.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below
Monday, July 30, 2012
The Pirates Don't Need To Trade For A Reliever
The Pirates have recently been said to have interest in lefty reliever Jose Mijares of Kansas City, who is having a great year with a 2.15 ERA in 37.2 innings. Lefties are hitting only .213 against him with a .560 OPS, but righties are hitting .283 with a .807 OPS, so he is better served as a lefty specialist. But, the Pirates really do not need to acquire another reliever.
While Mijares would be a great addition to an already strong bullpen, that move is not necessary, and neither is a deal for any reliever. If the Pirates need a reliever, they can just go to their very strong AAA team to find options. Here are the players the Pirates have in their highest minor league affiliate and on the 40-man roster that could come up an help in the bullpen:
LHP Jeff Locke: Locke is having a great year in AAA as a starter, with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. If needed, Locke could also come up and fill in as a good back of the rotation starter this year, especially if Correia is dealt. He has good pitches, with his fastball sitting in the low 90's with good control. In the bullpen, there's a good chance he can increase his velocity to the low-mid 90's. He could be used in the bullpen this year, but his future is as a starter in the majors. He was my #7 prospect in my top 30 prospects before the trading deadline.
RHP Daniel McCutchen: McCutchen was one of the most frequent relievers for the Pirates last year, putting up a decent season in 73 appearances. He was sent to AAA to begin the year because he had an option left, while other relievers he was in competition with didn't. He wouldn't be the first option up from this list, as he is not having a great season, but not bad either. He has a 3.64 ERA in 25 appearances, along with a 1.29 WHIP.
RHP Bryan Morris: Morris was called up for about a day earlier this season, then immediately sent down without ever getting a chance to appear in a major league game. Morris is the best option out of anyone on this list, and he has the potential to be a future closer in the MLB. He has a mid 90's fastball with a great curveball, a two pitch mix that can be very deadly out of the bullpen. He has a 2.54 ERA and 1.08 WHIP this year out of the 'pen, with good strikeout and walk numbers. Morris was my #13 prospect in the most recent rankings.
RHP Duke Welker: Since being moved to the bullpen, Welker has done a lot of good for the Pirates' affiliates. After being promoted to AAA part way through this year, Welker has a 2.42 ERA in 26 innings, with a 1.31 WHIP. His WHIP is that high because of a 5.9 BB/9, but he is also letting up only 5.9 Hits/9 as well. Welker possesses an upper 90's fastball, and good be a good addition to the bullpen this year or in the future.
LHP Justin Wilson: Need a lefty reliever? Justin Wilson should be the first option. Wilson has great stuff to work with, with great natural movement that makes his pitches very hard to hit. After struggling with his control last year, the Pirates moved Wilson to the AAA bullpen to end the season, where he displayed an upper 90's fastball that could hit 99 MPH. With an upper 90's fastball and great secondary pitches, Wilson could be a great late inning reliever, even with below average-average control. Wilson has a 4.04 ERA as a starter in AAA, with a 6.4 Hits/9, and can be a very good starter when his control is working. He could be another option for a spot start.
The Pirates are in contention and a good bullpen is vital to a playoff team. But, the Pirates don't need to look outside the organization to find an upgrade to an already great bullpen. General Manager Neal Huntington has done a great job over the past few years of putting together cheap bullpens that are always above average, and he hasn't had to trade for any upgrades for the bullpen. So, why should he start now with so many good options that are already in the organization? The team doesn't need to trade away another prospect just to get a reliever, and should use their prospects to get a hitter. If the Pirates really do want or need another reliever, the answer is just one promotion to the majors away.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
While Mijares would be a great addition to an already strong bullpen, that move is not necessary, and neither is a deal for any reliever. If the Pirates need a reliever, they can just go to their very strong AAA team to find options. Here are the players the Pirates have in their highest minor league affiliate and on the 40-man roster that could come up an help in the bullpen:
LHP Jeff Locke: Locke is having a great year in AAA as a starter, with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. If needed, Locke could also come up and fill in as a good back of the rotation starter this year, especially if Correia is dealt. He has good pitches, with his fastball sitting in the low 90's with good control. In the bullpen, there's a good chance he can increase his velocity to the low-mid 90's. He could be used in the bullpen this year, but his future is as a starter in the majors. He was my #7 prospect in my top 30 prospects before the trading deadline.
RHP Daniel McCutchen: McCutchen was one of the most frequent relievers for the Pirates last year, putting up a decent season in 73 appearances. He was sent to AAA to begin the year because he had an option left, while other relievers he was in competition with didn't. He wouldn't be the first option up from this list, as he is not having a great season, but not bad either. He has a 3.64 ERA in 25 appearances, along with a 1.29 WHIP.
RHP Bryan Morris: Morris was called up for about a day earlier this season, then immediately sent down without ever getting a chance to appear in a major league game. Morris is the best option out of anyone on this list, and he has the potential to be a future closer in the MLB. He has a mid 90's fastball with a great curveball, a two pitch mix that can be very deadly out of the bullpen. He has a 2.54 ERA and 1.08 WHIP this year out of the 'pen, with good strikeout and walk numbers. Morris was my #13 prospect in the most recent rankings.
RHP Duke Welker: Since being moved to the bullpen, Welker has done a lot of good for the Pirates' affiliates. After being promoted to AAA part way through this year, Welker has a 2.42 ERA in 26 innings, with a 1.31 WHIP. His WHIP is that high because of a 5.9 BB/9, but he is also letting up only 5.9 Hits/9 as well. Welker possesses an upper 90's fastball, and good be a good addition to the bullpen this year or in the future.
LHP Justin Wilson: Need a lefty reliever? Justin Wilson should be the first option. Wilson has great stuff to work with, with great natural movement that makes his pitches very hard to hit. After struggling with his control last year, the Pirates moved Wilson to the AAA bullpen to end the season, where he displayed an upper 90's fastball that could hit 99 MPH. With an upper 90's fastball and great secondary pitches, Wilson could be a great late inning reliever, even with below average-average control. Wilson has a 4.04 ERA as a starter in AAA, with a 6.4 Hits/9, and can be a very good starter when his control is working. He could be another option for a spot start.
The Pirates are in contention and a good bullpen is vital to a playoff team. But, the Pirates don't need to look outside the organization to find an upgrade to an already great bullpen. General Manager Neal Huntington has done a great job over the past few years of putting together cheap bullpens that are always above average, and he hasn't had to trade for any upgrades for the bullpen. So, why should he start now with so many good options that are already in the organization? The team doesn't need to trade away another prospect just to get a reliever, and should use their prospects to get a hitter. If the Pirates really do want or need another reliever, the answer is just one promotion to the majors away.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
Sunday, July 29, 2012
The Pirates Should Make a Trade, But Not With Marte
With the trading deadline approaching in two days, there are a lot of rumors going around the league, and the Pirates are included in a lot of these rumors. It is well known the Pirates are looking for an outfielder or first baseman, and they have been linked to names such as Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence, and Shin-Soo Choo. It wouldn't take much to get Victorino in a trade, but a trade for Pence and Choo will require a good package of players to complete the deal. Recently, Rob Biertempfel reported that the Pirates are "checking in" on Choo, and that the Pirates would likely have to part with Marte in order to complete that deal. That would not be a good deal for the Pirates.
At this point, no player is worth it to part with outfielder Starling Marte. Pence and Choo will both probably provide better offense down the stretch this year than Marte will, but even though the Pirates are on the verge of a winning season for the first time since 1992, the team still has to look to the future. Marte will be under team control for at least the next six years, while both Pence and Choo will be gone after next season. Which would you rather have, one and a half years of good production from Pence or Choo, or six years of possible great production from Marte? To me, the obvious answer is the six years of Marte. And, it may not take just Marte to acquire Pence or Choo. It may take another good prospect, someone like Jeff Locke or Gregory Polanco. That kind of deal is not worth one and a half years of a player who will put up a .800-.850 OPS.
After saying this, I still believe the Pirates should go out and get a good hitter. The Phillies have shown a lot of interest in reliever Brad Lincoln, so the Pirates should try to work out a deal with him included. If they could acquire Pence for a package that includes Lincoln and another good/decent prospect, then they should do it. Another way the Pirates could acquire a hitter is by dealing Kevin Correia or Joel Hanrahan. Teams that are looking for a veteran back of the rotation starter to sure up than rotation can deal for Correia. Correia is at his highest value right now, so it is the perfect time to trade him. As I stated in my post yesterday, the Pirates should definitely look to trade Joel Hanrahan, as he would bring in one or two major league hitters. If anything, the Astros series has shown that the Pirates need another bat to put the team over the top. The Pirates have the ability to make a trade for a bat without dealing Starling Marte, so they have to take that route.
The Pirates do need offense, and they should try to acquire a good hitter. But, they have to avoid parting with their top hitting prospect Starling Marte. He's too valuable to the team, and he has the ability to be an Andrew McCutchen-lite. Marte could hit for a .300+ average, and his power has really been improving over the last two years, and has the potential to hit for around 20 homers each year. Having Marte and McCutchen next to each other in the outfield for the next six years or so is definitely better to have than Pence or Choo next to McCutchen for one and a half years. A deal has to be made, but Marte has to be kept.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
At this point, no player is worth it to part with outfielder Starling Marte. Pence and Choo will both probably provide better offense down the stretch this year than Marte will, but even though the Pirates are on the verge of a winning season for the first time since 1992, the team still has to look to the future. Marte will be under team control for at least the next six years, while both Pence and Choo will be gone after next season. Which would you rather have, one and a half years of good production from Pence or Choo, or six years of possible great production from Marte? To me, the obvious answer is the six years of Marte. And, it may not take just Marte to acquire Pence or Choo. It may take another good prospect, someone like Jeff Locke or Gregory Polanco. That kind of deal is not worth one and a half years of a player who will put up a .800-.850 OPS.
After saying this, I still believe the Pirates should go out and get a good hitter. The Phillies have shown a lot of interest in reliever Brad Lincoln, so the Pirates should try to work out a deal with him included. If they could acquire Pence for a package that includes Lincoln and another good/decent prospect, then they should do it. Another way the Pirates could acquire a hitter is by dealing Kevin Correia or Joel Hanrahan. Teams that are looking for a veteran back of the rotation starter to sure up than rotation can deal for Correia. Correia is at his highest value right now, so it is the perfect time to trade him. As I stated in my post yesterday, the Pirates should definitely look to trade Joel Hanrahan, as he would bring in one or two major league hitters. If anything, the Astros series has shown that the Pirates need another bat to put the team over the top. The Pirates have the ability to make a trade for a bat without dealing Starling Marte, so they have to take that route.
The Pirates do need offense, and they should try to acquire a good hitter. But, they have to avoid parting with their top hitting prospect Starling Marte. He's too valuable to the team, and he has the ability to be an Andrew McCutchen-lite. Marte could hit for a .300+ average, and his power has really been improving over the last two years, and has the potential to hit for around 20 homers each year. Having Marte and McCutchen next to each other in the outfield for the next six years or so is definitely better to have than Pence or Choo next to McCutchen for one and a half years. A deal has to be made, but Marte has to be kept.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
Saturday, July 28, 2012
The Pirates Should Trade Joel Hanrahan
Written by: Michael Mawhinney
Over the past two years, Pirates' pitcher Joel Hanrahan has emerged as one of the top closers in the MLB, and has earned two All-Star nods. After a 2011 season where he saved 40 games, Hanrahan now leads the MLB in 2012 with 31 saves. He has a 2.18 ERA, 5.2 Hits/9, and a strikeout rate of 10.2 K/9. Because of these stats and his performance, Joel Hanrahan should be traded.
The idea of Hanrahan getting traded will surely make a lot of Pirates fans very upset, as they have come to love "Hammer time" and his unique beard and hair. He has done a great job for the Pirates and deserves a lot of the credit that he has been giving, but the fact is, closers are VERY overvalued. Tom Singer of MLB.com reports that there are elite teams willing to give "two major league bats" for Hanrahan. Whenever you can get two major league hitters for a reliever, it's generally a great deal. The Pirates need another bat if they want to have a chance at the NL pennant, and including Hanrahan in a trade could really increase the return that the Pirates receive. Four potential suitors for Hanrahan that could use a closer in their playoff race are the Red Sox, White Sox, Blue Jays, and Angels. In a trade for Hanrahan, the Pirates could also look for top prospects instead of major league hitters, as closers can bring in a good haul that way, as well. Here's a quick look at what these teams could offer:
Red Sox: Prospects: SS Xander Bogaerts, CF Jackie Bradley, C Blake Swihart
Bogaerts is 19 year old shortstop in high-A, with an .840 OPS. He has a lot of power potential, shown by 14 home runs this year, and has made good contact as well, with a .287 average this year. However, it seems unlikely he will stay at short. Keith Law has him as the #29 prospect in his mid-season rankings, so it is unlikely the Red Sox would part with him. Bradley is a very good defensive center fielder, and he has hit well this year, with an average .338 across high-A and AA, along with a .956 OPS. With this production, it also seems unlikely he is traded, but he is more likely to be dealt than Bogaerts. Swihart is an athletic catcher that needs more work at that position, but as a first round pick in 2011, he still has a lot of time to become the two way catcher he has the potential to be.
Major Leaguers: OF Ryan Kalish, OF Cody Ross
Kalish is a 24 year old former top prospect. He's been terrible this year in the majors, with a .488 OPS, but has hit well at AAA so far. Ross, who was a playoff hero for the Giants in 2010, has 16 home runs this year, but may cost more than just Joel Hanrahan.
White Sox: Prospects: The White Sox minor league system is horrible, and I do not suggest we trade for any of their prospects as we could get much more for Hanrahan.
Major Leaguers: After further review, the White Sox really have nothing to offer us. Cross them off as a potential trade partner. I do not know how they are winning right now, other than their division is not good at all.
Blue Jays: Prospects: C Travis D'Arnaud, RHP Aaron Sanchez, CF Jake Marisnick
Unlike the White Sox, the Blue Jays have a very good farm system. D'Arnaud, brother of Pirates' minor league Chase D'arnaud, is one of the top prospects in baseball, and has a .975 OPS in AAA this year as a 23 year old. But, D'arnaud is blocked in the MLB at catcher by J.P. Arencibia. The Blue Jays are obviously going to be very resistant to the idea of trading D'arnaud, but offering Joel Hanrahan and another good prospect or two like Jeff Locke, Justin Wilson, or even a lower level guy like Nick Kingham could turn out to be a great deal for the Pirates, who lack a good long term option at catcher if Tony Sanchez doesn't step up. Aaron Sanchez has a great arm, striking out over ten guys per nine innings, but also has a lot of control problems. He isn't letting up a lot of hits, and he would be a great addition to the system. Marisnick has the potential to be a five tool player, but has struggled so far in his jump to AA as a 21 year old. But after a great 2011 in low-A where he put up a .888 OPS, he is still a good trade option.
Major Leaguers: 1B Adam Lind, SS Yunel Escobar, OF Travis Snider
Any deal that involves a struggling player in the AL East who has had success in the past is very intriguing to me. This is because the AL East is possibly the best division in baseball, and the NL Central is one of the worst. As we've seen with A.J. Burnett, a player who struggled in the AL East can do great things with a move to the NL Central. Adam Lind has had three straight years coming into 2012 of 23 or more home runs, but has struggled with his bat this year. However, he would be an improvement over Casey McGehee offensively at first, and that would allow Jones to move to the outfield, where offense outside of McCutchen has been bad. Escobar is a decent hitting shortstop, but his attitude has caused some potential suitors to back off, as he can really hurt the clubhouse. Snider is a former top prospect who could also benefit from a move to the NL Central. He is 24 years old an has a career .976 OPS in AAA.
Angels: Prospects: RHP Garrett Richards, RHP John Hellweg, 1B C.J. Cron
Richards, who has started eight games in the majors this year and has a 3.91 ERA, has a plus fastball that he throws at 94-100 MPH, along with a good slider and good changeup. He doesn't strike out a lot of batters, and his control has been bad in his time in the majors. The Angels are very unlikely to deal Richards, as they did not include him in the Zack Greinke deal. Hellweg is a huge righty with a plus fastball, but control has been a major issue. He also went from striking out 11.4 batters per nine innings last year to striking out only 6.6 per nine this year, which could be a red flag. Cron is a big power hitter who is putting up a good average this year at .292, but he almost never walks, with a 2.7% walk rate. A plus side to that rate is that his strikeout rate is also very low, at 12.2%, which is amazing for a power hitter. C.J. Cron would be the best and most likely option here to me, but I seem to like him more as a prospect than others do.
Major Leaguers: OF Peter Bourjos
Bourjos would be a good pick up for Hanrahan, and a deal could probably get done between the two teams, as the Angels may be looking to trade him from their crowded outfield. Bourjos is a great defensive centerfielder, far better than McCutchen and better than Marte two, but would probably play left and move Marte to right if the Pirates acquired him. His bat is the wild card here, and could be a great boost to the Pirates if he hit around .280 and continued his amazing defense.
The Blue Jays and Angels seem to match up better with the Pirates, especially in the Bourjos case. I would love to see a deal made to get D'Arnaud, but that would probably never happen. I think Travis Snider would be a good guy to trade for, as he was recently one of the best prospects in all of baseball, and hasn't really been given a chance to play everyday in the majors and prove himself. A straight up Hanrahan for Snider trade would make sense for both clubs, and the Pirates may be able to get even more out of that deal.
If the Pirates could get any player that is or could be a good Major League starting pitcher or hitter, then they have to make that deal. Hanrahan pitches for one inning in about 43% of the Pirates' games, so getting a good everyday player would be well worth it. Also, the Pirates have guys that can fill in for Hanrahan and succeed as the closer. Brad Lincoln, Jason Grilli, and even Bryan Morris would all be good or better major league closers in my eyes right now. Personally, I think Lincoln would do even better than Hanrahan is doing. Also, there have been rumors that the Phillies would give the Pirates Shane Victorino in exchange for Brad Lincoln. Hanrahan's value is almost certainly much higher than Lincoln's, so just think what we could get for Hanrahan.
Playoff teams do need a good closer that can come in and shut the door in close games, but Hanrahan should be traded as his value will never be higher, and the Pirates have guys that can fill in as the closer. There are a lot of good trade options out there for the Pirates and Hanrahan, and the Pirates have to take full advantage of the value that Hanrahan could bring.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
Over the past two years, Pirates' pitcher Joel Hanrahan has emerged as one of the top closers in the MLB, and has earned two All-Star nods. After a 2011 season where he saved 40 games, Hanrahan now leads the MLB in 2012 with 31 saves. He has a 2.18 ERA, 5.2 Hits/9, and a strikeout rate of 10.2 K/9. Because of these stats and his performance, Joel Hanrahan should be traded.
The idea of Hanrahan getting traded will surely make a lot of Pirates fans very upset, as they have come to love "Hammer time" and his unique beard and hair. He has done a great job for the Pirates and deserves a lot of the credit that he has been giving, but the fact is, closers are VERY overvalued. Tom Singer of MLB.com reports that there are elite teams willing to give "two major league bats" for Hanrahan. Whenever you can get two major league hitters for a reliever, it's generally a great deal. The Pirates need another bat if they want to have a chance at the NL pennant, and including Hanrahan in a trade could really increase the return that the Pirates receive. Four potential suitors for Hanrahan that could use a closer in their playoff race are the Red Sox, White Sox, Blue Jays, and Angels. In a trade for Hanrahan, the Pirates could also look for top prospects instead of major league hitters, as closers can bring in a good haul that way, as well. Here's a quick look at what these teams could offer:
Red Sox: Prospects: SS Xander Bogaerts, CF Jackie Bradley, C Blake Swihart
Bogaerts is 19 year old shortstop in high-A, with an .840 OPS. He has a lot of power potential, shown by 14 home runs this year, and has made good contact as well, with a .287 average this year. However, it seems unlikely he will stay at short. Keith Law has him as the #29 prospect in his mid-season rankings, so it is unlikely the Red Sox would part with him. Bradley is a very good defensive center fielder, and he has hit well this year, with an average .338 across high-A and AA, along with a .956 OPS. With this production, it also seems unlikely he is traded, but he is more likely to be dealt than Bogaerts. Swihart is an athletic catcher that needs more work at that position, but as a first round pick in 2011, he still has a lot of time to become the two way catcher he has the potential to be.
Major Leaguers: OF Ryan Kalish, OF Cody Ross
Kalish is a 24 year old former top prospect. He's been terrible this year in the majors, with a .488 OPS, but has hit well at AAA so far. Ross, who was a playoff hero for the Giants in 2010, has 16 home runs this year, but may cost more than just Joel Hanrahan.
White Sox: Prospects: The White Sox minor league system is horrible, and I do not suggest we trade for any of their prospects as we could get much more for Hanrahan.
Major Leaguers: After further review, the White Sox really have nothing to offer us. Cross them off as a potential trade partner. I do not know how they are winning right now, other than their division is not good at all.
Blue Jays: Prospects: C Travis D'Arnaud, RHP Aaron Sanchez, CF Jake Marisnick
Unlike the White Sox, the Blue Jays have a very good farm system. D'Arnaud, brother of Pirates' minor league Chase D'arnaud, is one of the top prospects in baseball, and has a .975 OPS in AAA this year as a 23 year old. But, D'arnaud is blocked in the MLB at catcher by J.P. Arencibia. The Blue Jays are obviously going to be very resistant to the idea of trading D'arnaud, but offering Joel Hanrahan and another good prospect or two like Jeff Locke, Justin Wilson, or even a lower level guy like Nick Kingham could turn out to be a great deal for the Pirates, who lack a good long term option at catcher if Tony Sanchez doesn't step up. Aaron Sanchez has a great arm, striking out over ten guys per nine innings, but also has a lot of control problems. He isn't letting up a lot of hits, and he would be a great addition to the system. Marisnick has the potential to be a five tool player, but has struggled so far in his jump to AA as a 21 year old. But after a great 2011 in low-A where he put up a .888 OPS, he is still a good trade option.
Major Leaguers: 1B Adam Lind, SS Yunel Escobar, OF Travis Snider
Any deal that involves a struggling player in the AL East who has had success in the past is very intriguing to me. This is because the AL East is possibly the best division in baseball, and the NL Central is one of the worst. As we've seen with A.J. Burnett, a player who struggled in the AL East can do great things with a move to the NL Central. Adam Lind has had three straight years coming into 2012 of 23 or more home runs, but has struggled with his bat this year. However, he would be an improvement over Casey McGehee offensively at first, and that would allow Jones to move to the outfield, where offense outside of McCutchen has been bad. Escobar is a decent hitting shortstop, but his attitude has caused some potential suitors to back off, as he can really hurt the clubhouse. Snider is a former top prospect who could also benefit from a move to the NL Central. He is 24 years old an has a career .976 OPS in AAA.
Angels: Prospects: RHP Garrett Richards, RHP John Hellweg, 1B C.J. Cron
Richards, who has started eight games in the majors this year and has a 3.91 ERA, has a plus fastball that he throws at 94-100 MPH, along with a good slider and good changeup. He doesn't strike out a lot of batters, and his control has been bad in his time in the majors. The Angels are very unlikely to deal Richards, as they did not include him in the Zack Greinke deal. Hellweg is a huge righty with a plus fastball, but control has been a major issue. He also went from striking out 11.4 batters per nine innings last year to striking out only 6.6 per nine this year, which could be a red flag. Cron is a big power hitter who is putting up a good average this year at .292, but he almost never walks, with a 2.7% walk rate. A plus side to that rate is that his strikeout rate is also very low, at 12.2%, which is amazing for a power hitter. C.J. Cron would be the best and most likely option here to me, but I seem to like him more as a prospect than others do.
Major Leaguers: OF Peter Bourjos
Bourjos would be a good pick up for Hanrahan, and a deal could probably get done between the two teams, as the Angels may be looking to trade him from their crowded outfield. Bourjos is a great defensive centerfielder, far better than McCutchen and better than Marte two, but would probably play left and move Marte to right if the Pirates acquired him. His bat is the wild card here, and could be a great boost to the Pirates if he hit around .280 and continued his amazing defense.
The Blue Jays and Angels seem to match up better with the Pirates, especially in the Bourjos case. I would love to see a deal made to get D'Arnaud, but that would probably never happen. I think Travis Snider would be a good guy to trade for, as he was recently one of the best prospects in all of baseball, and hasn't really been given a chance to play everyday in the majors and prove himself. A straight up Hanrahan for Snider trade would make sense for both clubs, and the Pirates may be able to get even more out of that deal.
If the Pirates could get any player that is or could be a good Major League starting pitcher or hitter, then they have to make that deal. Hanrahan pitches for one inning in about 43% of the Pirates' games, so getting a good everyday player would be well worth it. Also, the Pirates have guys that can fill in for Hanrahan and succeed as the closer. Brad Lincoln, Jason Grilli, and even Bryan Morris would all be good or better major league closers in my eyes right now. Personally, I think Lincoln would do even better than Hanrahan is doing. Also, there have been rumors that the Phillies would give the Pirates Shane Victorino in exchange for Brad Lincoln. Hanrahan's value is almost certainly much higher than Lincoln's, so just think what we could get for Hanrahan.
Playoff teams do need a good closer that can come in and shut the door in close games, but Hanrahan should be traded as his value will never be higher, and the Pirates have guys that can fill in as the closer. There are a lot of good trade options out there for the Pirates and Hanrahan, and the Pirates have to take full advantage of the value that Hanrahan could bring.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
Thursday, July 26, 2012
Top 30 Prospects Before the Trading Deadline
Written by: Michael Mawhinney
With the deadline approaching, I wanted to put together a top 30 prospects list to see what the Pirates are giving up in a potential trade. Recently, the Pirates traded three prospects to the Astros for lefty pitcher Wandy Rodriguez. Those prospects were: outfielder Robbie Grossman, and pitchers Rudy Owens and Colton Cain. With that trade and the promotion of Starling Marte to the majors, that takes away four prospects from my previous top 30 list.
Finding the new top 30 prospects was not easy, and I discovered that the talent in the Pirates' system really drops off after the best 18-20 prospects. The system will probably only get weaker in the coming days as the team hopefully adds an impact bat, a deal that would certainly cost a few prospects from this list. The Pirates still have an above average farm system right now, but after some trades the system may fall back to league average, but that is completely fine if the organization puts a good product on the major league field.
Here is my list of the current top 30 prospects in the Pirates' system:
1.) Gerrit Cole--RHP--21--AA
2.) Jameson Taillon--RHP--20--A+
3.) Luis Heredia--RHP--17--A-
4.) Josh Bell--OF--19--A
5.) Alen Hanson--SS--19--A
6.) Gregory Polanco--OF--20--A
7.) Jeff Locke--LHP--24--AAA
8.) Kyle McPherson--RHP--24--AA
9.) Justin Wilson--LHP--24--AAA
10.) Alex Dickerson--1B--22--A+
11.) Matt Curry--1B--24--AA
12.) Tony Sanchez--C--24--AAA
13.) Bryan Morris--RHP--25--AAA
14.) Clay Holmes--RHP--19--A-
15.) Wyatt Mathisen--C--18--GCL
16.) Nick Kingham--RHP--20--A
17.) Barrett Barnes--OF--20--A-
18.) Jose Osuna--1B--19--A
19.) Brock Holt--SS--24--AA
20.) Mel Rojas Jr.--OF--22--A+
21.) Zack Von Rosenberg--RHP--21--A
22.) Harold Ramirez--OF--17--GCL
23.) Robby Rowland--RHP--20--A
24.) Willy Garcia--OF--19--A
25.) Jarek Cunningham--2B--22--AA
26.) Tim Alderson--RHP--23--AA
27.) Adalberto Santos--OF--24--AA
28.) Tyler Glasnow--RHP--18--GCL
29.) Brandon Cumpton--RHP--23--AA
30.) Victor Black--RHP--24--AA
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below
With the deadline approaching, I wanted to put together a top 30 prospects list to see what the Pirates are giving up in a potential trade. Recently, the Pirates traded three prospects to the Astros for lefty pitcher Wandy Rodriguez. Those prospects were: outfielder Robbie Grossman, and pitchers Rudy Owens and Colton Cain. With that trade and the promotion of Starling Marte to the majors, that takes away four prospects from my previous top 30 list.
Finding the new top 30 prospects was not easy, and I discovered that the talent in the Pirates' system really drops off after the best 18-20 prospects. The system will probably only get weaker in the coming days as the team hopefully adds an impact bat, a deal that would certainly cost a few prospects from this list. The Pirates still have an above average farm system right now, but after some trades the system may fall back to league average, but that is completely fine if the organization puts a good product on the major league field.
Here is my list of the current top 30 prospects in the Pirates' system:
1.) Gerrit Cole--RHP--21--AA
2.) Jameson Taillon--RHP--20--A+
3.) Luis Heredia--RHP--17--A-
4.) Josh Bell--OF--19--A
5.) Alen Hanson--SS--19--A
6.) Gregory Polanco--OF--20--A
7.) Jeff Locke--LHP--24--AAA
8.) Kyle McPherson--RHP--24--AA
9.) Justin Wilson--LHP--24--AAA
10.) Alex Dickerson--1B--22--A+
11.) Matt Curry--1B--24--AA
12.) Tony Sanchez--C--24--AAA
13.) Bryan Morris--RHP--25--AAA
14.) Clay Holmes--RHP--19--A-
15.) Wyatt Mathisen--C--18--GCL
16.) Nick Kingham--RHP--20--A
17.) Barrett Barnes--OF--20--A-
18.) Jose Osuna--1B--19--A
19.) Brock Holt--SS--24--AA
20.) Mel Rojas Jr.--OF--22--A+
21.) Zack Von Rosenberg--RHP--21--A
22.) Harold Ramirez--OF--17--GCL
23.) Robby Rowland--RHP--20--A
24.) Willy Garcia--OF--19--A
25.) Jarek Cunningham--2B--22--AA
26.) Tim Alderson--RHP--23--AA
27.) Adalberto Santos--OF--24--AA
28.) Tyler Glasnow--RHP--18--GCL
29.) Brandon Cumpton--RHP--23--AA
30.) Victor Black--RHP--24--AA
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below
Starling Marte Time, Is He Ready?
Written by: Michael Mawhinney
Yesterday, the Pirates promoted their top hitting prospect, Starling Marte, to the majors. Fans have been waiting for this day ever since Marte was destroying the ball in Spring Training this year, and they were calling for his promotion very early in the season. However, Marte started off slowly this year, but really picked it up in June, where he had a .944 OPS, along with improved power while continuing to play great defense in the outfield. By the time he was promoted, Marte was able to increase his overall batting line to .286/.348/.500, with 12 home runs, 61 RBI, 21 stolen bases, and an .848 OPS.
While most people are very excited about the promotion, there are definitely going to be skeptical fans and people within the baseball industry that are going to question if Marte is ready for the majors. There are reasons for these people to be skeptical, as Marte's average is way down from last season, even though it's still at .286, his strikeout rate is at 21.1%, and his walk rate is at 6.5%. Is Marte ready for the jump to the majors?
At the beginning of July, when Marte was on a huge hot streak where he had an OPS of 1.259 over a ten game span, I wrote a post asking Is it time for Starling Marte to be called up?. In the post I asked four questions to find out if and when Marte should be called up, and if there are other factors in his promotion. The questions were: 1.) Would the Pirates be rushing Marte to the majors?, 2.) How will Presley and Tabata be doing by the end of July?, 3.) Will they trade for another hitter?, and 4.) Will the Pirates be in contention by the end of July? I am going to answer these four questions with the current situation to once again see if it is the right time for Marte to be called up.
1.) Would the Pirates be rushing Marte to the majors?
Marte has had a total of 384 at bats at the AAA level this year, which is a good amount to determine how a player can handle pitching at that level. But, is it enough to determine if a player can handle major league pitching? In my early July post, I talked about Pedro Alvarez, who was rushed to the majors, and Andrew McCutchen, who the Pirates were patient with. Alvarez had 242 at bats in AAA, while McCutchen had 780. For a prospect of Alvarez's status, 242 at bats may have seemed enough at the time, as he was hitting well and was seemingly ready to contribute at the major league level. But, those 242 at bats may not have been enough for Pedro, as he has struggled a lot in the majors with strikeouts, with a career strikeout rate of 34.4%. With a number like that, it looks like Pedro was rushed and could have used more time in AAA to better his approach. In McCutchen's case, the Pirates were extremely patient with him, but it paid off in the end as he is the favorite to win the NL MVP this year. The McCutchen example will lead many people to believe that it is best for teams to give prospects a lot of experience at AAA to prove that they are ready for the jump to the majors.
With 384 at bats in AAA this year, Marte falls between Alvarez and McCutchen, in terms of at bats and experience in AAA. The Pirates rushed Alvarez a little and were extremely patient with McCutchen, and it isn't easy to determine what the right number of at bats is to see if a player is ready for the majors. For more of a reference, I looked up another recent call-up who is a similar player to Marte, and that is Anthony Gose of the Toronto Blue Jays.
Gose came into the 2012 season ranked as the #39 prospect in baseball, according to Baseball America. Just like Marte, Gose played a full season in AA last year, and he was getting his first taste of AAA this year. Before he was promoted, Gose had 377 at bats at AAA, with .808 OPS. The OPS may seem a little lower for a top prospect, but Gose is more known for his speed and his glove. The number of at bats and OPS are very similar to those of Marte, so compared to another similar top prospect, Marte is deemed ready for the majors.
In my opinion, Marte is not being rushed to the majors. 384 at bats is enough to show that Marte can handle major league pitching, and his glove is definitely ready to contribute. Only time will tell how he will fare in the majors, but after showing consistency at the plate through June and July, it doesn't appear that Marte is being rushed.
2.) How will Presley and Tabata be doing at the end of July?
They aren't doing well......Tabata was sent down to AAA where he has struggled a little, and Presley has an OBP of .270 and a .636 OPS, so there is definitely no one blocking Marte in the outfield. The Cubs series showed that the Pirates need another bat and we already have seen that Presley and Tabata aren't the answer, so hopefully Marte can fill the offensive void in left field, and provide good production along with McCutchen in center and Garrett Jones in right.
3.) Will they trade for another hitter?
This question has yet to be answered, as the only trade the Pirates have made was for left handed pitcher Wandy Rodriguez. The Pirates still have five more days to upgrade their offense, and they are looking at first baseman and outfielders. They are known to be interested in Chase Headley of the Padres, and there are rumors that the Pirates would be interested if Hunter Pence became available. A trade really wouldn't affect Marte at this point, as a new outfielder would go to right and Jones would become the first baseman. The Pirates do need an offensive upgrade, and if they can't acquire one via trade, Marte could be that upgrade.
4.) Will the Pirates be in contention by the end of July?
The Pirates are still in contention, as they are 2.5 games back in the NL Central, and 1.5 games ahead for the first wild card spot. If the Pirates want to stay in contention, they need another bat, and as I've said in the last two questions, Marte could be that bat. But, the trade for Wandy Rodriguez and Marte's promotion should not stop the Pirates from attempting to acquire another impact bat, like Chase Headley or Hunter Pence (I would prefer Pence).
The Pirates being in contention this late in the season probably contributed to management's decision to promote Marte. If the team was not in contention, it was more likely that the team would have waited until next season to promote Marte, as it may have been seen as a waste to start his arbitration clock for two months of being on a team that isn't in contention. Marte's promotion is good timing as now he is here for the pennant race, and he is an immediate upgrade from players that have played in the outfield like Drew Sutton, Alex Presley, Jose Tabata, and Josh Harrison, both offensively and defensively.
Marte is ready to contribute in the majors, and now is a good time for him to be promoted. Many people said at the beginning of July that Marte needed to show consistency throughout the month to prove he was ready for the majors. In July, he raised his OPS 22 points, hit four homers, and drove in 14 more runs. He was already major league ready with his glove, and now he has proven that he is ready with his bat. Marte is now up in the majors ready to help a team in the middle of a pennant race, and this team is in need of an impact bat that Marte could definitely provide
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
Yesterday, the Pirates promoted their top hitting prospect, Starling Marte, to the majors. Fans have been waiting for this day ever since Marte was destroying the ball in Spring Training this year, and they were calling for his promotion very early in the season. However, Marte started off slowly this year, but really picked it up in June, where he had a .944 OPS, along with improved power while continuing to play great defense in the outfield. By the time he was promoted, Marte was able to increase his overall batting line to .286/.348/.500, with 12 home runs, 61 RBI, 21 stolen bases, and an .848 OPS.
While most people are very excited about the promotion, there are definitely going to be skeptical fans and people within the baseball industry that are going to question if Marte is ready for the majors. There are reasons for these people to be skeptical, as Marte's average is way down from last season, even though it's still at .286, his strikeout rate is at 21.1%, and his walk rate is at 6.5%. Is Marte ready for the jump to the majors?
At the beginning of July, when Marte was on a huge hot streak where he had an OPS of 1.259 over a ten game span, I wrote a post asking Is it time for Starling Marte to be called up?. In the post I asked four questions to find out if and when Marte should be called up, and if there are other factors in his promotion. The questions were: 1.) Would the Pirates be rushing Marte to the majors?, 2.) How will Presley and Tabata be doing by the end of July?, 3.) Will they trade for another hitter?, and 4.) Will the Pirates be in contention by the end of July? I am going to answer these four questions with the current situation to once again see if it is the right time for Marte to be called up.
1.) Would the Pirates be rushing Marte to the majors?
Marte has had a total of 384 at bats at the AAA level this year, which is a good amount to determine how a player can handle pitching at that level. But, is it enough to determine if a player can handle major league pitching? In my early July post, I talked about Pedro Alvarez, who was rushed to the majors, and Andrew McCutchen, who the Pirates were patient with. Alvarez had 242 at bats in AAA, while McCutchen had 780. For a prospect of Alvarez's status, 242 at bats may have seemed enough at the time, as he was hitting well and was seemingly ready to contribute at the major league level. But, those 242 at bats may not have been enough for Pedro, as he has struggled a lot in the majors with strikeouts, with a career strikeout rate of 34.4%. With a number like that, it looks like Pedro was rushed and could have used more time in AAA to better his approach. In McCutchen's case, the Pirates were extremely patient with him, but it paid off in the end as he is the favorite to win the NL MVP this year. The McCutchen example will lead many people to believe that it is best for teams to give prospects a lot of experience at AAA to prove that they are ready for the jump to the majors.
With 384 at bats in AAA this year, Marte falls between Alvarez and McCutchen, in terms of at bats and experience in AAA. The Pirates rushed Alvarez a little and were extremely patient with McCutchen, and it isn't easy to determine what the right number of at bats is to see if a player is ready for the majors. For more of a reference, I looked up another recent call-up who is a similar player to Marte, and that is Anthony Gose of the Toronto Blue Jays.
Gose came into the 2012 season ranked as the #39 prospect in baseball, according to Baseball America. Just like Marte, Gose played a full season in AA last year, and he was getting his first taste of AAA this year. Before he was promoted, Gose had 377 at bats at AAA, with .808 OPS. The OPS may seem a little lower for a top prospect, but Gose is more known for his speed and his glove. The number of at bats and OPS are very similar to those of Marte, so compared to another similar top prospect, Marte is deemed ready for the majors.
In my opinion, Marte is not being rushed to the majors. 384 at bats is enough to show that Marte can handle major league pitching, and his glove is definitely ready to contribute. Only time will tell how he will fare in the majors, but after showing consistency at the plate through June and July, it doesn't appear that Marte is being rushed.
2.) How will Presley and Tabata be doing at the end of July?
They aren't doing well......Tabata was sent down to AAA where he has struggled a little, and Presley has an OBP of .270 and a .636 OPS, so there is definitely no one blocking Marte in the outfield. The Cubs series showed that the Pirates need another bat and we already have seen that Presley and Tabata aren't the answer, so hopefully Marte can fill the offensive void in left field, and provide good production along with McCutchen in center and Garrett Jones in right.
3.) Will they trade for another hitter?
This question has yet to be answered, as the only trade the Pirates have made was for left handed pitcher Wandy Rodriguez. The Pirates still have five more days to upgrade their offense, and they are looking at first baseman and outfielders. They are known to be interested in Chase Headley of the Padres, and there are rumors that the Pirates would be interested if Hunter Pence became available. A trade really wouldn't affect Marte at this point, as a new outfielder would go to right and Jones would become the first baseman. The Pirates do need an offensive upgrade, and if they can't acquire one via trade, Marte could be that upgrade.
4.) Will the Pirates be in contention by the end of July?
The Pirates are still in contention, as they are 2.5 games back in the NL Central, and 1.5 games ahead for the first wild card spot. If the Pirates want to stay in contention, they need another bat, and as I've said in the last two questions, Marte could be that bat. But, the trade for Wandy Rodriguez and Marte's promotion should not stop the Pirates from attempting to acquire another impact bat, like Chase Headley or Hunter Pence (I would prefer Pence).
The Pirates being in contention this late in the season probably contributed to management's decision to promote Marte. If the team was not in contention, it was more likely that the team would have waited until next season to promote Marte, as it may have been seen as a waste to start his arbitration clock for two months of being on a team that isn't in contention. Marte's promotion is good timing as now he is here for the pennant race, and he is an immediate upgrade from players that have played in the outfield like Drew Sutton, Alex Presley, Jose Tabata, and Josh Harrison, both offensively and defensively.
Marte is ready to contribute in the majors, and now is a good time for him to be promoted. Many people said at the beginning of July that Marte needed to show consistency throughout the month to prove he was ready for the majors. In July, he raised his OPS 22 points, hit four homers, and drove in 14 more runs. He was already major league ready with his glove, and now he has proven that he is ready with his bat. Marte is now up in the majors ready to help a team in the middle of a pennant race, and this team is in need of an impact bat that Marte could definitely provide
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
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