Late last night, the Pirates acquired outfielder Travis Snider for reliever Brad Lincoln in a one-for-one trade. For the Pirates, there is nothing to hate about this deal. Whenever you can trade a 27 year-old reliever for a 24 year old potential All-Star who is under team control until 2015, you have to make that deal. Just like how closers are overvalued, other relievers will be overvalued as well.
WAR is a great stat to determine a player's overall value. McCutchen's WAR this year is 5.4, which is second in the MLB behind Mike Trout (6.2). Lincoln's WAR this year is at 1.2, while Snider's WAR is at 0.2. Yes, Lincoln's is much higher, but Snider only has 36 at bats this season in ten games. Also, as a reliever, Lincoln's WAR is almost as high as it will ever be. Aroldis Chapman, now the Red's closer, is having an incredible season out of the bullpen, and his WAR is at 2.4. That number is greatly increased because he has 21 saves now, and would be lower if he remained in a set-up role. Personally, I don't think Lincoln will ever have a season like Chapman is having, and I doubt Lincoln's WAR will ever reach 2.0 unless he is made a starter or reliever. To put that in perspective, an average major league starter's (position player) WAR is about 2.0. So, at his peak value, Lincoln has the same worth as an average major league starter. With Snider, you have a guy that could be a perennial All-Star candidate, with Baseball-Reference putting an All-Star's WAR at 5+. It can definitely be argued that Snider won't be an All-Star, but even if he is just an average starter, he will probably still provide more value than Lincoln ever will as a reliever.
Another stat that I want to throw out there is 27.5%. That is the percentage of games that Brad Lincoln has appeared in for the Pirates. When coming out of the bullpen, Lincoln averages 1.55 innings. So, for less than 30% of the Pirates games, Brad Lincoln came in and pitched an average of less than two innings. In exchange for this, the Pirates got a guy that could play every inning of every game, and who could do very well.
There is the option that Brad Lincoln could start for the Blue Jays, which could increase his value. But, how would he perform in the rotation? In five starts this year, Lincoln had a 6.08 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and only compiled 23.2 innings. That's less than five innings a start. If he struggled this much in the NL Central, how is he going to have more success in the AL East, the best division in baseball? An example of the difference between these two divisions: A.J. Burnett had an ERA of 5.15 in his last year in the AL East, one year after he posted a 5.26 ERA. Now, as a 35 year old in the NL Central, Burnett has a 3.52 ERA. It is doubtful that Lincoln will become an above average starter, as he is 27 years-old and moving to a much stronger division, so the only way he could increase his value is moving to the closer role.
Now on to Travis Snider. I feel the same thing would apply to Snider, moving from the AL East to the NL Central. He's going to face easier pitching in his new division, which could easily better his production. He's also moving into PNC Park, where the short deck in right field could help his power numbers moving forward.
Here is something we can't forget, just three years ago in 2009, Snider was the #6 prospect in all of baseball. He has yet to be given more than 300 at bats in one season at the major league level. When he was given 298 at-bats as a 22 year-old, he hit 14 home runs. Now let's look at his AAA numbers. In 183 games and 696 at bats, Snider has a batting line of .333/.412/.565, good for a .976 OPS, along with 56 doubles, 33 home runs, 155 RBI, and 17 stolen bases. Even though he played in the traditionally hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, those numbers are still outstanding. This season, in 56 games and 209 at bats at AAA, Snider has a line of .335/.423/.598, with a 1.021 OPS, 13 home runs, and 56 RBI. This is where I would like to remind everyone that Travis Snider is 24 years-old. He is only eight months older than Starling Marte, and is a year younger than Pedro Alvarez.
The Pirates needed an outfielder or first baseman that could hit and hit for power, and this is what they potentially got with Snider. Now that Snider is the team's starting right fielder, Garrett Jones can move to first base and possibly platoon with Casey McGehee, and the team won't have to start Alex Presley and his .651 OPS anymore in the outfield. This trade will only improve the offense, and could add a lot more power to the lineup.
In no way am I trying to bash Brad Lincoln in this post, I'm just saying that relievers are generally overvalued, and that the team got a great return in this trade. Lincoln is a great guy and will be missed, but the Pirates have options in AAA that could make the team better right now. It is likely that one of these players is called up today to take the bullpen spot that Lincoln left. My guess is that it will be Bryan Morris, who has been dominant out of the 'pen. It could also be lefty Doug Slaten, but they would have to make a move on the 40-man roster for that to happen.
The Pirates traded a reliever for a player that could be a All-Star in the Lincoln-Snider trade. Lincoln appeared in less than 30% of the Pirates' games, and Snider could be an everyday game-changer with his hitting ability. Not much bad can be said about this trade, and it could very well become one of the best trades that General Manager Neal Huntington makes for the Pirates.
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