It's the most exciting day of the year for baseball fans: July 31st. The Trade Deadline. Rumors upon rumors cause excitement (or even distress in some cases) for fans, and many of the General Managers in the majors are sitting by their phones all day after probably not sleeping much for the past week. I'm sure this is what Pirates' GM Neal Huntington has been up to, looking for any deal to upgrade the Pirates' roster right now, as well as keeping the future intact. With this post, I'm going to step into the GM's spot and propose 15 different deals that I would do if given the chance. These ideas will start with trade proposals with those teams considered to be sellers, and move into those who are said to be buyers.
1) Chicago Cubs: SS Javier Baez and 1B Dan Vogelbach for SP Nick Kingham, and the Cubs choice of Tony Sanchez and Reese McGuire, and the choice of Brandon Cumpton and Casey Sadler.
The Cubs have an incredibly talented system, and their future lineup includes Anthony Rizzo at first, a combination of Baez, Starlin Castro, and Addison Russell at second/third/short, and Kris Bryant, Albert Almora, and Jorge Soler in the outfield. That leaves out top prospect Arismendy Alcantara, who can play in the middle infield and the outfield. This theoretically makes someone available, and I believe Baez is the most likely option. The Cubs most likely have the best minor league system in the game, but they are weak in pitching and catching, and Kingham and Sanchez/McGuire give them long term solutions at those spots. Sanchez would be able to help right away, while McGuire would come up when the Cubs' core of offensive players are reaching their prime. Cumpton/Sadler give the Cubs a solid back end starter, with Cumpton offering more upside. Vogelbach is a big first baseman with some power, and would most likely be blocked with Anthony Rizzo at first, and could provide the Pirates with a solid prospect at the position. Baez would take over at shortstop for now, and the Pirates would be able to platoon Alvarez and Mercer at third, with Josh Harrison also getting starts against lefties and sharing time with Marte/Polanco in the outfield. Or the Pirates could move Alvarez to first and have Harrison/Mercer take over at third.
2) Philadelphia Phillies: SP A.J. Burnett for OF Harold Ramirez
In order for this to happen, the Phillies would have to eat a lot of Burnett's contract and the Pirates would want Burnett to assure them he is retiring after this season so they will not have to worry about his vesting option that will likely be over $12 million. Ramirez is a solid outfield prospect in Low-A with a great hit tool and speed, but with the strength of the Pirates current outfield and Josh Bell and Austin Meadows, Ramirez is the definition of an expendable prospect.
3) Philadelphia Phillies: 1B Ryan Howard and basically his entire contract for OF Harold Ramirez
Howard is signed through 2016 for $25 million per year, with a $23 million option for 2017 with a $10 million buyout. If the Phillies pay about $22 million of that per year, if not more, I'd be fine with the still powerful (16 HR this year) Howard taking over the left handed part of the first base platoon. Once again, Ramirez is expendable.
4) Colorado Rockies: SS Troy Tulowitzki for SS Alen Hanson, OF Austin Meadows, SP Nick Kingham, SS Jordy Mercer
Tulo is the best shortstop in the league, and is signed through 2021, which includes a team option for 2021. His contract will be worth $129 million over that span, and with the track record of his health, the Rockies would have to take on some of that contract in the deal. If they took on a good portion, Tulo is the kind of talent you sell the farm for.
5) San Diego Padres: SP Tyson Ross for OF Harold Ramirez, SP Nick Kingham, 1B/OF Andrew Lambo
Ross, who is 27 years old, has a 2.60 ERA in 23 starts this year for the Padres, with a 3.12 FIP and a 9.1 K/9 rate, and he doesn't become a free agent until 2018. Ramirez gives them a solid outfield prospect, Kingham could step into their rotation very soon, and Lambo would be inserted in their lineup right away, a lineup that has been one of the worst in major league history.
6) Boston Red Sox: RP Andrew Miller for SP Brandon Cumpton and OF Harold Ramirez
You can really get a gage on how expendable I think Ramirez is, as he's included in another trade here. I don't believe in trading top prospects for relievers, and I won't stray from that in this trade proposal. Miller has been one of the best lefty relievers in the majors this year, with a 2.34 ERA in 50 appearances with a 14.7 K/9. However, he becomes a free agent at the end of the season, so a big prospect would be too steep a price for the Pirates. Cumpton could be a solid back end starter for the Red Sox in the future, and Ramirez could be a starter in the future. I don't think this would be enough to get Miller, but that's all I would give up for a two month reliever rental.
7) Boston Red Sox: SP John Lackey, 3B Will Middlebrooks, and SS Deven Marrero for SS Alen Hanson, SP Nick Kingham, OF Jose Tabata, and OF Barrett Barnes
Lackey would be placed behind Liriano and Cole in the Pirates rotation, and with a 46.9% ground ball rate, he would fit nicely into the Pirates system and could improve on his 3.60 ERA. Middlebrooks was recently a good prospect, but has struggled greatly over the past two years, with a .629 OPS in 21 games in the majors, and a .677 OPS in the minors this year in 100 at bats. However, he is still young enough to turn it back around, and would be an infinitely times better bench option than Michael Martinez. Hard core Pirates fans may remember Marrero as the college shortstop who couldn't hit that the Pirates were heavily tied to in the 2012 draft. Well, it turns out he can hit a little, with a .293 average and .783 OPS across AA and AAA this season at 23 years old. He is not as good as a prospect as Alen Hanson at short, though he is much better defensively. Nick Kingham gives the Red Sox a potential mid rotation starter for the future with many years of control, and Tabata gives them a bench option this year, or even a starter if needed. Barnes has a high upside in the outfield, with a chance to be a 20 HR/20 SB player in the future, but his injury history has limited him so far. Also, the Red Sox may be hesitant to deal Lackey, as they are always in a position to win in the next season with their budget, and Lackey is only making league minimum next season due to an option that was activated after he spent significant time on the DL due to an elbow injury.
8) Houston Astros: 1B/OF Chris Carter for SP Joely Rodriguez and C Jin-De Jhang
Carter is more likely to strikeout than Pedro Alvarez, but has 21 homers this year and would be a great option off the bench, or even in the first base platoon, as he has an .872 OPS against lefties this season. He still isn't worth much, and SP Joely Rodriguez, a member of the Pirates' 40-man roster, is struggling this season, but still has the upside of a back-end lefty starter. Jin-De Jhang is a catcher who is struggling at high-A, but his has offensive upside and could at least be a backup in the majors if he can hit.
9) Texas Rangers: SP Yu Darvish for OF Austin Meadows, SS Alen Hanson, SP Nick Kingham, OF Harold Ramirez
This will never happen, but I saw about a month ago that the Rangers would listen on Darvish, and with three years left in his contract that total $31 million, which is ridiculously low for his value. This is also a guy you sell the farm for, but I still would want to avoid including top prospect Tyler Glasnow in a deal.
10) Miami Marlins: 3B Colin Moran for SS Alen Hanson
This would not affect either team this year, as it is a talent for talent trade. I'm not as big on Hanson as others are, as I'm not sure he'll hit and there are many doubts about his ability to stick at short. Moran was drafted in 2013 as the 6th overall pick, and could move quickly enough through the system that he could immediately replace Pedro Alvarez at third when Clint Hurdle completes his goal of pushing Pedro to leave the Pirates through free agency in 2016 (or because he's a Scott Boras client, both are equally likely).
11) Tampa Bay Rays: SP David Price for SS Alen Hanson, SP Nick Kingham, and C Reese McGuire
I'm not on board for giving up a huge prospect haul for a year and two months of Price, albeit at an affordable financial cost, and in my eyes, this isn't a huge prospect loss. Price would be the ace of the Pirates for this year and next, and would make them the favorites in the NL Central. As I said previously, I'm not as high on Hanson, but he is still rated as a top prospect in the industry. Kingham gives the Rays a potential 200 inning workhorse who would fit nicely in the middle of a rotation as soon as this September. Similarly to Hanson, I'm not as high on Reese McGuire as others have been. I wasn't high on him heading into the draft last year, and that was due to his questionable bat. He has only a .618 OPS in Low-A this year, but he is one of the top defensive catching prospects in the minors, and that carries a lot of value in this day in age. If the Pirates could sign Russell Martin to an extension, this trade makes even more sense.
12) Los Angeles Dodgers: OF Matt Kemp plus Cash for the Dodgers' choice of OF Josh Bell or SS Alen Hanson, and their choice of C Tony Sanchez and C Reese McGuire
Yes, I'm being serious. Kemp is owed a huge amount of money, $107.5 million to be exact, over the next five years, and the Dodgers do not want to pay all of that for a player they seem to no longer want. If the Pirates end up paying Kemp about $8-10 million per year, this is a deal I would like. Heading into 2012, Kemp was considered possibly the most valuable offensive player in the majors (Trout had yet to spend a full season in the majors heading into that year), and now has a 1.049 OPS over the last month. The Dodgers are looking to deal him, and would be willing to eat some of his contract for a player like Josh Bell or Alen Hanson. Tony Sanchez can step into their major league lineup at least on a part time basis right away, or if they decide on McGuire, they have their potential long term answer behind the plate. This trade would cause a problem however, as it would give the Pirates four outfield options (another reason why the Dodgers want to deal him), and a solution could be a switch to first base for Kemp. He's obviously athletic enough for this move, and would be able to focus more on his hitting when he becomes accustomed to the position. If the Pirates don't think this is possible, have the Dodgers eat more of Kemp's contract and send over Starling Marte instead of Bell or Hanson. For that trade to happen, I would pay Kemp about $5-7 million a year.
13) Kansas City Royals: 3B Mike Moustakas and either 3B Hunter Dozier or SP Sean Manaea for either SP Edinson Volquez or SP Vance Worley, along with RP Jared Hughes
The Royals are looking for starting pitching, and both Volquez and Worely would be upgrades to their rotation. Moustakas, much like Will Middlebrooks, is a former top third base prospect who has struggled at the major league level after some amount of success in their rookie seasons. He has become expendable for the Royals, and could be a nice bench/future corner infield starting option for the Pirates. Volquez/Worley is worth more than Moustakas right now, so the Royals would have to add a prospect, ideally one of Dozier or Manaea, both 2013 draft picks. I would prefer Dozier, but Manaea offers a higher upside. The Pirates would be selling high on Jared Hughes' success this season as they couldn't get a top prospect and Moustakas for just Volquez/Worley. If the Pirates could get it done with Vin Mazzaro instead of Hughes, that would be preferable.
14) Los Angeles Angels: 1B C.J. Cron and 3B Kaleb Cowart for either SP Edinson Volquez or SP Vance Worley and 1B Gaby Sanchez
Cron would give the Pirates their long term answer at first, and the Angels would have another starting option for the pennant race. Gaby Sanchez would step in at first or the DH spot for the Angels, with proven success against left handed pitchers. It may take Ike Davis to get this deal done, which is still a trade that I do, as I'm a big fan of Cron. Cowart was a top prospect, but has struggled these past two seasons in AA, with a .580 and .623 OPS, respectively. At 22 years old, there still is time for him to turn it around and become a potential third baseman of the future for the Pirates.
15) Seattle Mariners: SP Taijuan Walker, 1B/3B D.J. Peterson, 1B Jesus Montero, 2B/SS Nick Franklin for OF Starling Marte, SS Alen Hanson, SP Brandon Cumpton, OF Barrett Barnes
This would be a huge trade, centered around Walker and Marte. Walker is currently pitching in the majors for the Mariners, but is still one of the top prospects in the game, and could push the Pirates over the top in the NL Central with a rotation of Walker, Liriano, Cole, Morton, and Locke. The Pirates would lose Marte and his team friendly contract, but they have Josh Harrison to take over as the starter in left until Josh Bell reaches the majors. The Mariners are looking for an outfielder to help in the Wild Card race, and Marte could be a major boost offensively and defensively. The rest of the deal is basically Peterson, Montero, and Franklin for Hanson, Cumpton, and Barnes, with some excess value from Marte due to his contract. Peterson would become the Pirates' first baseman of the future, although there is a chance he could play third, Nick Franklin becomes the shortstop of the future, and the Pirates hope they can get Montero, the former #3 prospect in baseball with the Yankees, back on track. Hanson is similar to Franklin, and both are similar in value, but Cumpton and Barnes are worth more together than Montero, making the deal fair for both sides.
Hopefully one of these trades get done!
Any questions or comments? Send them to me on twitter @MicMaw. Thanks for reading!
Thursday, July 31, 2014
Thursday, June 5, 2014
2014 MLB Draft Board
It's draft day in the MLB, and for die hard MLB fans it's almost as exciting as a birthday, and sometimes with all the excitement, it can get out of hand (too bad he didn't sign). But in all seriousness, draft day is extremely important for many organizations, as it is their main avenue to infuse their system with quality talent, especially with the small market clubs. This years draft is relatively weak when compared to recent years, with not a lot of "can't miss" talent, rather a lot of raw players that could become All-Stars, but are just as likely to never become productive starters in the majors. The strength of this draft is left handed pitching, as the highest end talent can be found with them, and high school pitching in general should be in abundance at the end of the first round.
This year I will be using the 20-80 scale to provide the upside of the player (Ceiling), and the more conservative/if things don't go as expected outlook of the player (Floor). Many people use the 20-80 scale differently, and here is how I use it for this draft board:
80: Potential top 3-5 player in the game, once in a generation talent.
75: Perennial Cy Young/MVP candidate, top 10 starter in MLB, #1 Starter on any team, top 3 player at their position, middle of the order bat.
70: Cy Young/MVP candidate possible in their prime, consistent All-Star, #1 starter on most teams, middle of the order bat.
65: All-Star regular, top of the rotation upside, #1-2 starter, could contend for Cy Young or MVP in career year, middle of the order bat, .300 hitter or 30 homer hitter.
60: Above average regular, #2-3 starter, 200 inning starter or elite closer, 1-5 hitter in the lineup with good average and/or power, elite defender, possible All-Star.
55: Slightly above average regular, #3-4 starter, innings eater or good closer/elite reliever. Great defender, good hitter without defense, or leadoff/ 4-7 hitter in the lineup.
50: Average regular, #4-5 starter, good reliever, average regular with .280-.290 average or around 20 homers, or a good defender/basestealer.
45: Below average regular/bench option. #5 starter, decent reliever. Bottom of the order hitter or decent defender with little offense, or some power but low average.
40: Bench option/reliever on bad team.
35: AAA player that could see some major league games.
30: May reach AAA, organizational player
25: Tops out at AA, organizational player
20: Never leaves A-ball.
This is my draft board, meaning how I would rank the players and choose my draft picks if I was in the position to make the picks, and this is not a mock draft. I provide brief scouting reports for the first 25 players, then the Ceilings and Floors for the next 25, then continue to rank the top 80 players on my board. Enjoy!
1.) Brady Aiken--LHP--6'4--200--High School
Big lefty with fastball sitting 92-94 and touching 97 with solid command. His curve is an easy plus pitch and his change could end up plus as well, with some saying it could be even better than his curve. Great pitchability and repeatable delivery give him the chance to be a frontline starter.
Ceiling: 70
Floor: 55
2.) Carlos Rodon--LHP--6'4--235--College Junior--NC State
Unique delivery that adds deception, throws his fastball at 91-94, touching 97 with movement. His big breaking slider is a plus-plus pitch that could be the best breaking pitch in the draft, but his changeup is more of an average pitch right now.
Ceiling: 65
Floor: 60
3.) Tyler Kolek--RHP--6'5--250--HS
Could have the best fastball in the draft, sitting mid 90's and frequently hitting triple digits. His curve and slider both have the chance to be above average pitches, or even plus offerings, but his changeup needs to develop. His fastball can get straight and he can lose his command at times, but he has #1 starter potential.
Ceiling: 70
Floor: 50
4.) Alex Jackson--C--R/R--6'2--215--HS
Considered by many to be the best bat in the draft, Jackson has the ability to hit for a good average with plus power in the future. He has a good arm behind the plate with solid pop times, but his receiving skills need work and could cause a shift to one of the corner outfield spots. While his swing can be inconsistent, it should still be enough to provide value at any position.
Ceiling: 65
Floor: 45
5.) Grant Holmes--RHP--6'2--190--HS
Fastball that sits 92-94, but has hit the high 90's and touches 97 deep into games. He pairs that with a plus curve in the low 80's, along with a change that could be plus, as well. There is little to no projection left in his body, but as a polished pitcher out of high school, he has the ceiling of an ace and a relatively low floor.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 50
6.) Michael Conforto--OF--L/R--6'2--217--CJr--Oregon State
He's an on base machine with an OBP of over .500 this spring, and is seen as a relatively safe pick. He can hit for a solid average along with above average power, but may not produce at an All-Star level. Not much of a defender, and he will most likely end up in left field, where he has the ability to hit 30+ homers a year if everything goes right.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 55
7.) Bradley Zimmer--OF--L/R--6'4--185--CJr--San Francisco
Toolys player with nothing that currently stands out, but his swing can generate plus power in the future, and there's still room to add strength in his frame. He's a slightly above average runner and has a good arm in the outfield. There's a chance he could play center, but he'll probably end up in a coerner outfield spot.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 50
8.) Aaron Nola--RHP--6'2--170--CJr--LSU
Considered a safe pick as a pitcher, he has put up great stats but his upside may be limited. Fastball sits 91-93 with good sink and plus command, and his curve and change could both be above average pitches. He reminds me of Danny Hultzen, but a right handed version.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 55
9.) Nick Gordon--SS--L/R--6'2--170--HS
Athletic infielder who possesses good fielding ability and above average speed on the base paths, pointing to the idea that he could be a player similar to his brother Dee Gordon. He makes solid contact, but probably won't have much power in the future. He uses the whole field as a hitter, but his speed and defense are what put him this high on the board.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
10.) Jeff Hoffman--RHP--6'4--185--CJr--East Carolina
Underwent Tommy John Surgery in May, meaning he won't be able to pitch until mid-2015. He had top of the rotation stuff before the injury, and many considered him to be in the mix for the top overall selection. Fastball sits in the mid 90's with a plus curve and the potential for an above average change, as well as a good feel for pitching.
Ceiling: 65
Floor: 45
11.) Touki Toussaint--RHP--6'2--185--HS
Erratic pitcher, but when he's on he has the potential for two 70 or better pitches on the 20-80 scale. His fastball sits in the low 90's, but he has touched 97 in the past. His best pitch could be his mid 70's curveball, which has ridiculous break that make it difficult for both hitters and catchers, and could be the best curve in the class. He's developing a changeup, and command can be a major problem. He has one of the highest ceilings in the draft, but needs to develop a quality changeup and improve his command in order to reach that ceiling.
Ceiling: 65
Floor: 45
12.) Tyler Beede--RHP--6'4--215--CJr--Vanderbilt
A former first round pick in 2011, Beede has been inconsistent in both performance and draft rankings. He has great stuff with a fastball that sits 92-94 and frequently hits the mid 90's, and a plus change and potentially above average curve, but control issues take away from the pitches. He has the upside of a #2 starter, but there is a small chance he ends up in the bullpen if his control doesn't improve.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
13.) Max Pentecost--C--R/R--6'2--190--CJr--Kennesaw State
A great defensive catcher with good arm strength behind the plate, pairing that with solid receiving skills that make him a near lock to stay at the position. He has a short swing that can generate solid contact, but he hasn't produced much power to this point. He could hit for a decent average with the possibility for 15 homers, and also has surprising speed.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 50
14.) Jacob Gatewood--SS--R/R--6'5--180--HS
A big shortstop with plus raw power that could be the best in this draft class, but there are major concerns about his hit tool and swing. He has a strong arm and the athleticism to stay at short, but it is very possible that he ends up at third or in a corner outfield spot. His huge raw power gives him a lot of upside, but the development of the rest of his game will determine how far he can go.
Ceiling: 65
Floor: 40
15.) Sean Newcomb--LHP--6'5--240--CJr--Hartford
Fastball sits 90-94, but hits 96 frequently with an easy delivery. He has the potential for an above average slider, with a curve and a change that should be average pitches. His control can be poor, but a solid four pitch mix make him a good prospect.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 50
16.) Monte Harrison--OF--S/R--6'4--180--HS
Three sport star in high school, and is also a Wide Receiver recruit for Nebraska. He is extremely athletic with plus speed and could be a plus defender in the outfield, as well. He's very raw at the plate, but has the ability to hit for average and above average power. He has great arm strength, and has a very high upside as possibly the best 5-tool prospect in the draft.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 40
17.) Trea Turner--SS--R/R--6'1--170--CJr--NC State
Plus plus speed and is a safe bet to stick at short int he pros. His bat is a question, but he has made consistent contact in the past and could even be a .280-.300 hitter in the future. Power is not part of his game, but as a shortstop who could hit for a good average with 40 stolen base potential, he is a clear first round talent.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
18.) Derek Hill--OF--R/R--6'2--175--HS
An athletic outfielder who has plus speed, running a sub 6.4 60, along with plus defense in centerfield. He's not projected to hit for much power, but 10-12 homers a season is reasonable. His hit tool is also a question mark, but he makes enough contact to hit for a decent average at the professional level.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 40
19.) Kyle Schwarber--C--L/R--6'0--230--CJr--Indiana
Power is the biggest part of his game, with plus raw power but there are potential holes in his swing that could cause high strikeout rates int he future. He could hit for average, but is more likely a .250-.260 hitter with power. There are questions as to whether he can stay behind the plate, and he could end up in a corner outfield spot. He needs to work on the accuracy of his throws as a catcher.
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 50
20.) Kyle Freeland--LHP--6'4--185--CJr--Evansville
Projectable body that could add velocity to his 90-93 MPH fastball that can already reach the mid 90's. His slider can work as an above average pitch, and his change could be slightly above average, as well. He has very good control and has drawn comparisons to Chris Sale.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
21.) Erik Fedde--RHP--6'4--170--CJr--UNLV
Underwent Tommy John Surgery in May, and won't pitch until mid 2015. Sat 91-93 with movement, touching 96 at times before the surgery, but struggled with his command despite low walk totals. He has a potential plus slider along with a change that could be slightly above average. He has a projectable frame that could see in increase in velocity, but he will be 22 by the time he pitches next.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
22.) Michael Gettys--OF--R/R--6'2--205--HS
Very toolsy player with plus speed, plus fielding ability in center, and a plus-plus arm. His bat is a huge question, as he didn't perform well this spring. His swing is solid, allowing him to generate good power in batting practice, but he hasn't made the same consistent hard contact in games. If he would have hit, he could have been a top 10 pick this year.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 35
23.) Brandon Finnegan--LHP--5'11-185--CJr--TCU
Dealt with a shoulder injury at the end of the year, but when healthy he was one of the top performers in the NCAA. Fastball that sits 93-95 that can hit the upper 90's with good control, along with a potentially above average slider/slurve in the low 80's. Could have a slightly above average change, but because of injury and size concerns and great two pitch mix, many see him as a great reliever/closer in the future.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
24.) Luis Ortiz--RHP--6'2--190--HS
A forearm injury raises a lot of concerns for scouts, but still sat 92-95 after the injury. He has hit 97 and has the potential for an above average slider, with the makings of a curve and a change that could be average, along with average command.
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 40
25.) Ti'Quan Forbes--R/R--6'4--170--HS
Raw player that could end up above average across the board. His swing has a hitch in it that will need to be corrected if he can tap into his potential above average power and hit tools. He's very athletic and could stay at short, but could also be a solid fielder in the outfield. He already possesses above average run and arm tools that could play at any position on the diamond.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 30
26.) Derek Fisher--OF--L/R--6'3--210--CJr--Virginia
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 40
27.) A.J. Reed--1B--L/L--6'4--245--CJr--Kentucky
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 50
28.) Braxton Davidson--OF--L/L--6'3--215--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 35
29.) Justus Sheffield--LHP--6'1--180--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
30.) Scott Blewett--RHP--6'6--210--HS
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 35
31.) Jake Bukauskus--RHP--5'11--180--HS
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
32.) Mac Marshall--LHP--6'2--180--HS
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 40
33.) Alex Blandino--3B--L/R--6'0--190--CJr--Stanford
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 50
34.) Casey Gillaspie--1B--S/L--6'4--230--CJr--Wichita State
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
35.) Forrest Wall--2B--L/R--6'1--180--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
36.) Garrett Fulunchek--RHP--6'4--185--HS
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 30
37.) Spencer Adams--RHP--6'4--180--HS
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 40
38.) Foster Griffin--LHP--6'5--190--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 40
39.) Kodi Medeiros--LHP--6'0--185--HS
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 40
40.) Nick Burdi--RHP--6'3--220--CJr--Louisville
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 30
41.) Spencer Turnbull--RHP--6'3--195--CJr--Alabama
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 40
42.) Jacob Lindgren--LHP--6'0--190--CJr--Mississippi State
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
43.) Michael Chavis--3B--R/R--6'0--185--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
44.) Sean Reid-Foley--RHP--6'2--210--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 40
45.) Jakson Reetz--C--R/R--6'1--195--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 30
46.) Alex Verdugo--LHP--6'1--190--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
47.) Cameron Varga--RHP--6'3--205--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 40
48.) Michael Kopech--RHP--6'4--195--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
49.) Gareth Morgan--OF--R/R--6'4--210--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 30
50.) Chris Ellis--RHP--6'5--205--CJr--Ole Miss
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
51.) Mike Papi--OF--L/R--6'3--210--CJr--Virginia
52.) Marcus Wilson--OF--R/R--6'3--170--HS
53.) Keith Weisenberg--RHP--6'4--185--HS
54.) Mitch Keller--RHP--6'3--195--HS
55.) Dylan Cease--RHP--6'2--175--HS
56.) Bobby Bradley--1B--L/R--6'1--225--HS
57.) Zech Lemond--RHP--6'3--175--CJr--Rice
58.) Matt Chapman--3B--R/R--6'2--205--CJr--Cal State Fullerton
59.) Matthew Railey--OF--L/L--5'11-195--HS
60.) Dylan Davis--OF--R/R--6'0--200--CJr--Oregon State
61.) J.D. Davis--1B--R/R--6'3--215--CJr--Cal State Fullerton
62.) Matt Imhof--LHP--6'5--220--CJr--Cal Poly
63.) Luke Weaver--RHP--6'2--170--CJr--Florida State
64.) Jack Flaherty--RHP/3B--6'3--190--HS
65.) Daniel Gossett--RHP--6'1--175--CJr--Clemson
66.) Jake Stinnett--RHP--6'4--205--CSr--Maryland
67.) Milton Ramos--SS--R/R--6'2--165--HS
68.) Sam Travis--1B--R/R--6'0--205--CJr--Indiana
69.) Jaren Kendell--OF--L/R--5'10--175--HS
70.) Chase Vallot--C--R/R--6'1--205--HS
71.) Cody Reed--LHP--6'3--260--HS
72.) Bryce Montes De Oca--RHP--6'7--265--HS
73.) Carson Sands--LHP--6'3--200--HS
74.) Taylor Sparks--3B--R/R--6'4--210--CJr--UC Irvine
75.) Grant Hockin--RHP--6'3--195--HS
76.) Cole Tucker--SS--S/R--6'3--165--HS
77.) Trey Supak--RHP--6'5--210--HS
78.) Brett Graves--RHP--6'1--190--CJr--Missouri
79.) Chris Oliver--RHP--6'4--185--CJr--Arkansas
80.) Nick Howard--RHP--6'3--215--CJr--Virginia
If you would like me to go into more depth on a player, just tweet @MicMaw, and I will provide you with any info you may need.
This year I will be using the 20-80 scale to provide the upside of the player (Ceiling), and the more conservative/if things don't go as expected outlook of the player (Floor). Many people use the 20-80 scale differently, and here is how I use it for this draft board:
80: Potential top 3-5 player in the game, once in a generation talent.
75: Perennial Cy Young/MVP candidate, top 10 starter in MLB, #1 Starter on any team, top 3 player at their position, middle of the order bat.
70: Cy Young/MVP candidate possible in their prime, consistent All-Star, #1 starter on most teams, middle of the order bat.
65: All-Star regular, top of the rotation upside, #1-2 starter, could contend for Cy Young or MVP in career year, middle of the order bat, .300 hitter or 30 homer hitter.
60: Above average regular, #2-3 starter, 200 inning starter or elite closer, 1-5 hitter in the lineup with good average and/or power, elite defender, possible All-Star.
55: Slightly above average regular, #3-4 starter, innings eater or good closer/elite reliever. Great defender, good hitter without defense, or leadoff/ 4-7 hitter in the lineup.
50: Average regular, #4-5 starter, good reliever, average regular with .280-.290 average or around 20 homers, or a good defender/basestealer.
45: Below average regular/bench option. #5 starter, decent reliever. Bottom of the order hitter or decent defender with little offense, or some power but low average.
40: Bench option/reliever on bad team.
35: AAA player that could see some major league games.
30: May reach AAA, organizational player
25: Tops out at AA, organizational player
20: Never leaves A-ball.
This is my draft board, meaning how I would rank the players and choose my draft picks if I was in the position to make the picks, and this is not a mock draft. I provide brief scouting reports for the first 25 players, then the Ceilings and Floors for the next 25, then continue to rank the top 80 players on my board. Enjoy!
1.) Brady Aiken--LHP--6'4--200--High School
Big lefty with fastball sitting 92-94 and touching 97 with solid command. His curve is an easy plus pitch and his change could end up plus as well, with some saying it could be even better than his curve. Great pitchability and repeatable delivery give him the chance to be a frontline starter.
Ceiling: 70
Floor: 55
2.) Carlos Rodon--LHP--6'4--235--College Junior--NC State
Unique delivery that adds deception, throws his fastball at 91-94, touching 97 with movement. His big breaking slider is a plus-plus pitch that could be the best breaking pitch in the draft, but his changeup is more of an average pitch right now.
Ceiling: 65
Floor: 60
3.) Tyler Kolek--RHP--6'5--250--HS
Could have the best fastball in the draft, sitting mid 90's and frequently hitting triple digits. His curve and slider both have the chance to be above average pitches, or even plus offerings, but his changeup needs to develop. His fastball can get straight and he can lose his command at times, but he has #1 starter potential.
Ceiling: 70
Floor: 50
4.) Alex Jackson--C--R/R--6'2--215--HS
Considered by many to be the best bat in the draft, Jackson has the ability to hit for a good average with plus power in the future. He has a good arm behind the plate with solid pop times, but his receiving skills need work and could cause a shift to one of the corner outfield spots. While his swing can be inconsistent, it should still be enough to provide value at any position.
Ceiling: 65
Floor: 45
5.) Grant Holmes--RHP--6'2--190--HS
Fastball that sits 92-94, but has hit the high 90's and touches 97 deep into games. He pairs that with a plus curve in the low 80's, along with a change that could be plus, as well. There is little to no projection left in his body, but as a polished pitcher out of high school, he has the ceiling of an ace and a relatively low floor.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 50
6.) Michael Conforto--OF--L/R--6'2--217--CJr--Oregon State
He's an on base machine with an OBP of over .500 this spring, and is seen as a relatively safe pick. He can hit for a solid average along with above average power, but may not produce at an All-Star level. Not much of a defender, and he will most likely end up in left field, where he has the ability to hit 30+ homers a year if everything goes right.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 55
7.) Bradley Zimmer--OF--L/R--6'4--185--CJr--San Francisco
Toolys player with nothing that currently stands out, but his swing can generate plus power in the future, and there's still room to add strength in his frame. He's a slightly above average runner and has a good arm in the outfield. There's a chance he could play center, but he'll probably end up in a coerner outfield spot.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 50
8.) Aaron Nola--RHP--6'2--170--CJr--LSU
Considered a safe pick as a pitcher, he has put up great stats but his upside may be limited. Fastball sits 91-93 with good sink and plus command, and his curve and change could both be above average pitches. He reminds me of Danny Hultzen, but a right handed version.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 55
9.) Nick Gordon--SS--L/R--6'2--170--HS
Athletic infielder who possesses good fielding ability and above average speed on the base paths, pointing to the idea that he could be a player similar to his brother Dee Gordon. He makes solid contact, but probably won't have much power in the future. He uses the whole field as a hitter, but his speed and defense are what put him this high on the board.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
10.) Jeff Hoffman--RHP--6'4--185--CJr--East Carolina
Underwent Tommy John Surgery in May, meaning he won't be able to pitch until mid-2015. He had top of the rotation stuff before the injury, and many considered him to be in the mix for the top overall selection. Fastball sits in the mid 90's with a plus curve and the potential for an above average change, as well as a good feel for pitching.
Ceiling: 65
Floor: 45
11.) Touki Toussaint--RHP--6'2--185--HS
Erratic pitcher, but when he's on he has the potential for two 70 or better pitches on the 20-80 scale. His fastball sits in the low 90's, but he has touched 97 in the past. His best pitch could be his mid 70's curveball, which has ridiculous break that make it difficult for both hitters and catchers, and could be the best curve in the class. He's developing a changeup, and command can be a major problem. He has one of the highest ceilings in the draft, but needs to develop a quality changeup and improve his command in order to reach that ceiling.
Ceiling: 65
Floor: 45
12.) Tyler Beede--RHP--6'4--215--CJr--Vanderbilt
A former first round pick in 2011, Beede has been inconsistent in both performance and draft rankings. He has great stuff with a fastball that sits 92-94 and frequently hits the mid 90's, and a plus change and potentially above average curve, but control issues take away from the pitches. He has the upside of a #2 starter, but there is a small chance he ends up in the bullpen if his control doesn't improve.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
13.) Max Pentecost--C--R/R--6'2--190--CJr--Kennesaw State
A great defensive catcher with good arm strength behind the plate, pairing that with solid receiving skills that make him a near lock to stay at the position. He has a short swing that can generate solid contact, but he hasn't produced much power to this point. He could hit for a decent average with the possibility for 15 homers, and also has surprising speed.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 50
14.) Jacob Gatewood--SS--R/R--6'5--180--HS
A big shortstop with plus raw power that could be the best in this draft class, but there are major concerns about his hit tool and swing. He has a strong arm and the athleticism to stay at short, but it is very possible that he ends up at third or in a corner outfield spot. His huge raw power gives him a lot of upside, but the development of the rest of his game will determine how far he can go.
Ceiling: 65
Floor: 40
15.) Sean Newcomb--LHP--6'5--240--CJr--Hartford
Fastball sits 90-94, but hits 96 frequently with an easy delivery. He has the potential for an above average slider, with a curve and a change that should be average pitches. His control can be poor, but a solid four pitch mix make him a good prospect.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 50
16.) Monte Harrison--OF--S/R--6'4--180--HS
Three sport star in high school, and is also a Wide Receiver recruit for Nebraska. He is extremely athletic with plus speed and could be a plus defender in the outfield, as well. He's very raw at the plate, but has the ability to hit for average and above average power. He has great arm strength, and has a very high upside as possibly the best 5-tool prospect in the draft.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 40
17.) Trea Turner--SS--R/R--6'1--170--CJr--NC State
Plus plus speed and is a safe bet to stick at short int he pros. His bat is a question, but he has made consistent contact in the past and could even be a .280-.300 hitter in the future. Power is not part of his game, but as a shortstop who could hit for a good average with 40 stolen base potential, he is a clear first round talent.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
18.) Derek Hill--OF--R/R--6'2--175--HS
An athletic outfielder who has plus speed, running a sub 6.4 60, along with plus defense in centerfield. He's not projected to hit for much power, but 10-12 homers a season is reasonable. His hit tool is also a question mark, but he makes enough contact to hit for a decent average at the professional level.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 40
19.) Kyle Schwarber--C--L/R--6'0--230--CJr--Indiana
Power is the biggest part of his game, with plus raw power but there are potential holes in his swing that could cause high strikeout rates int he future. He could hit for average, but is more likely a .250-.260 hitter with power. There are questions as to whether he can stay behind the plate, and he could end up in a corner outfield spot. He needs to work on the accuracy of his throws as a catcher.
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 50
20.) Kyle Freeland--LHP--6'4--185--CJr--Evansville
Projectable body that could add velocity to his 90-93 MPH fastball that can already reach the mid 90's. His slider can work as an above average pitch, and his change could be slightly above average, as well. He has very good control and has drawn comparisons to Chris Sale.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
21.) Erik Fedde--RHP--6'4--170--CJr--UNLV
Underwent Tommy John Surgery in May, and won't pitch until mid 2015. Sat 91-93 with movement, touching 96 at times before the surgery, but struggled with his command despite low walk totals. He has a potential plus slider along with a change that could be slightly above average. He has a projectable frame that could see in increase in velocity, but he will be 22 by the time he pitches next.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
22.) Michael Gettys--OF--R/R--6'2--205--HS
Very toolsy player with plus speed, plus fielding ability in center, and a plus-plus arm. His bat is a huge question, as he didn't perform well this spring. His swing is solid, allowing him to generate good power in batting practice, but he hasn't made the same consistent hard contact in games. If he would have hit, he could have been a top 10 pick this year.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 35
23.) Brandon Finnegan--LHP--5'11-185--CJr--TCU
Dealt with a shoulder injury at the end of the year, but when healthy he was one of the top performers in the NCAA. Fastball that sits 93-95 that can hit the upper 90's with good control, along with a potentially above average slider/slurve in the low 80's. Could have a slightly above average change, but because of injury and size concerns and great two pitch mix, many see him as a great reliever/closer in the future.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
24.) Luis Ortiz--RHP--6'2--190--HS
A forearm injury raises a lot of concerns for scouts, but still sat 92-95 after the injury. He has hit 97 and has the potential for an above average slider, with the makings of a curve and a change that could be average, along with average command.
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 40
25.) Ti'Quan Forbes--R/R--6'4--170--HS
Raw player that could end up above average across the board. His swing has a hitch in it that will need to be corrected if he can tap into his potential above average power and hit tools. He's very athletic and could stay at short, but could also be a solid fielder in the outfield. He already possesses above average run and arm tools that could play at any position on the diamond.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 30
26.) Derek Fisher--OF--L/R--6'3--210--CJr--Virginia
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 40
27.) A.J. Reed--1B--L/L--6'4--245--CJr--Kentucky
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 50
28.) Braxton Davidson--OF--L/L--6'3--215--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 35
29.) Justus Sheffield--LHP--6'1--180--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
30.) Scott Blewett--RHP--6'6--210--HS
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 35
31.) Jake Bukauskus--RHP--5'11--180--HS
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
32.) Mac Marshall--LHP--6'2--180--HS
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 40
33.) Alex Blandino--3B--L/R--6'0--190--CJr--Stanford
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 50
34.) Casey Gillaspie--1B--S/L--6'4--230--CJr--Wichita State
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
35.) Forrest Wall--2B--L/R--6'1--180--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
36.) Garrett Fulunchek--RHP--6'4--185--HS
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 30
37.) Spencer Adams--RHP--6'4--180--HS
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 40
38.) Foster Griffin--LHP--6'5--190--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 40
39.) Kodi Medeiros--LHP--6'0--185--HS
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 40
40.) Nick Burdi--RHP--6'3--220--CJr--Louisville
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 30
41.) Spencer Turnbull--RHP--6'3--195--CJr--Alabama
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 40
42.) Jacob Lindgren--LHP--6'0--190--CJr--Mississippi State
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
43.) Michael Chavis--3B--R/R--6'0--185--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
44.) Sean Reid-Foley--RHP--6'2--210--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 40
45.) Jakson Reetz--C--R/R--6'1--195--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 30
46.) Alex Verdugo--LHP--6'1--190--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
47.) Cameron Varga--RHP--6'3--205--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 40
48.) Michael Kopech--RHP--6'4--195--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
49.) Gareth Morgan--OF--R/R--6'4--210--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 30
50.) Chris Ellis--RHP--6'5--205--CJr--Ole Miss
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
51.) Mike Papi--OF--L/R--6'3--210--CJr--Virginia
52.) Marcus Wilson--OF--R/R--6'3--170--HS
53.) Keith Weisenberg--RHP--6'4--185--HS
54.) Mitch Keller--RHP--6'3--195--HS
55.) Dylan Cease--RHP--6'2--175--HS
56.) Bobby Bradley--1B--L/R--6'1--225--HS
57.) Zech Lemond--RHP--6'3--175--CJr--Rice
58.) Matt Chapman--3B--R/R--6'2--205--CJr--Cal State Fullerton
59.) Matthew Railey--OF--L/L--5'11-195--HS
60.) Dylan Davis--OF--R/R--6'0--200--CJr--Oregon State
61.) J.D. Davis--1B--R/R--6'3--215--CJr--Cal State Fullerton
62.) Matt Imhof--LHP--6'5--220--CJr--Cal Poly
63.) Luke Weaver--RHP--6'2--170--CJr--Florida State
64.) Jack Flaherty--RHP/3B--6'3--190--HS
65.) Daniel Gossett--RHP--6'1--175--CJr--Clemson
66.) Jake Stinnett--RHP--6'4--205--CSr--Maryland
67.) Milton Ramos--SS--R/R--6'2--165--HS
68.) Sam Travis--1B--R/R--6'0--205--CJr--Indiana
69.) Jaren Kendell--OF--L/R--5'10--175--HS
70.) Chase Vallot--C--R/R--6'1--205--HS
71.) Cody Reed--LHP--6'3--260--HS
72.) Bryce Montes De Oca--RHP--6'7--265--HS
73.) Carson Sands--LHP--6'3--200--HS
74.) Taylor Sparks--3B--R/R--6'4--210--CJr--UC Irvine
75.) Grant Hockin--RHP--6'3--195--HS
76.) Cole Tucker--SS--S/R--6'3--165--HS
77.) Trey Supak--RHP--6'5--210--HS
78.) Brett Graves--RHP--6'1--190--CJr--Missouri
79.) Chris Oliver--RHP--6'4--185--CJr--Arkansas
80.) Nick Howard--RHP--6'3--215--CJr--Virginia
If you would like me to go into more depth on a player, just tweet @MicMaw, and I will provide you with any info you may need.
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