Should the Pirates Re-Sign Marlon Byrd?

For most of the 2013 season, the Pirates had a hole in their lineup at right field.  The team tried to fill this hole internally, with options like Josh Harrison, Brandon Inge, Garrett Jones, Andrew Lambo, Alex Presley, Jose Tabata, and Travis Snider.  Harrison will never be able to be a major league starter, Inge should never be mentioned again, and Presley never regained his 2011 form before being shipped to Minnesota along with Duke Welker in the Justin Morneau trade.  Jones wasn't the same as last year, and was also needed in the first base platoon, and Lambo never received much of a chance to prove himself.  This left Jose Tabata and Travis Snider as the two options who gave the Pirates the most hope to fill that hole in right field.  Tabata quietly put together a solid season, arguably the best offensive showing he has had in his time in the majors.  He had a career high .771 OPS, a 119 OPS+ (to put that in perspective, Starling Marte had a 122 OPS+, and Pedro Alvarez had an OPS+ of 116), and also showed more power with a career high .429 SLG and .146 ISO.  The problems with Tabata were that he was injured for much of the season, only posting 341 plate appearances, and was also very inconsistent in the time he did play.  Here is his OPS by month:

April/March: .549

May: .991

June: Did not play

July: .631

August: .851

September/October: .844

As you can see, Tabata's solid season was fueled by a very strong May, and by a great end to the season in the final two months.  With Snider, the Pirates had a former top prospect who was given a chance to play every day from the beginning of the season.  The hope was that he could regain some of the power that once made him the number six prospect in the game before the 2009 season, but after hitting only three homers in 226 at bats in the first half, it became clear that wouldn't happen.  This led to there being a lot of rumors that the Pirates were going to add a right field bat at the July 31st trade deadline, with the options being Alex Rios, Nate Schierholtz, Hunter Pence, Giancarlo Stanton (the Pirates did make a strong push for him), and Marlon Byrd.  However, the trade deadline came and went, and no deal was made.  Rios was eventually sent to the Rangers in August, while the other four stayed put until late August.  On August 28th, the Pirates completed a trade that would send Dilson Herrera and Victor Black to the Mets in exchange for Marlon Byrd and John Buck, along with $250K from the Mets.  The Pirates were making a playoff push, and acquiring Byrd filled the hole that the Pirates were trying to fill the entire year.  

Byrd's time with the Pirates was very successful, as he put up a line of .318/.357/.486 in 107 at bats, along with three home runs and a .843 OPS.  Byrd also performed well in the playoffs, posting a .982 OPS and hitting a crucial home run in the Wild Card game against the Reds.  So, with the Pirates not having a definite option in right field heading into 2014, it would make sense for the team to re-sign Marlon Byrd, right?  Not necessarily.

Byrd's time in Pittsburgh was great, providing both offense and defense, as well as being a positive influence in the clubhouse.  However, there are a few reasons why the Pirates should be hesitant to re-sign Byrd this offseason.  These reasons include questions as to whether he can repeat his performance, the price he will command, and the other internal options that the Pirates have.  Here we will go into a little more depth about these reasons to avoid signing Marlon Byrd for the 2014 season.

Can Byrd Repeat His Performance?

Statistically, 2013 was the best year of Marlon Byrd's career,  with career highs in home runs, OPS, OPS+, WAR, and wRC+.  That's good for Byrd, but it came in his age 35 season, while most players reach their prime around ages 27-30.  Also, this stellar year came after the worst year of Byrd's career, where he posted a .488 OPS in 143 at bats, managing a WAR of -0.5.  Byrd saw his BABIP jump to .353 in 2013, which is much higher than his career number of .325, which is influenced by this season.  Byrd struck out more and walked less this year, which is always a red flag, especially for a player who is entering his late 30's.  His home run to fly ball ratio was excessively higher than his career number, with a 16.4% ratio in 2013, and 9.3% career number, which explained his increase in power.  Also, you can't forget his suspension for a performance enhancing drug in 2012 (which he maintains was used for medical purposes, not baseball).  All of these facts make it hard for me to believe that Byrd will be able to repeat this performance in 2014, and that he was a little lucky this season.  I'm not the only one who thinks this, as the Steamer projection from Fangraphs and steamerprojection.com have Byrd posting a .735 OPS in 2014.  With the amount of money he is likely to receive in a new contract, would that production be worth it for the Pirates?

How Much Will It Take To Sign Byrd?

Byrd won't be receiving a qualifying offer, which is up to $14.1 million this season, but he will still come fairly expensive this offseason.  The free agent market for outfielders this season will be affected by the extension given to Hunter Pence at the end September, where he was given a five year, $90 million deal.  There are four or five outfielders that will be ranked ahead of Byrd this offseason, with those players being Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Beltran, Shin-Soo Choo, with Nelson Cruz being in a similar range with Byrd.  Deals given to those players could also drive the market price up for Byrd, forging a price tag that is far above what he is really worth.  I would expect to see Byrd signing for over $10 million with how the current market is, especially if teams act quick to avoid a bidding war, which is something that the Pirates have done in recent years (think Russell Martin and Clint Barmes).  If you think that price is too high, remember that Shane Victorino was signed to a three year, $39 million contract before 2013 after posting a .704 OPS.  The Pirates have enough room in their payroll to give Byrd that kind of contract, but that money would be better used to bring in a first baseman or to sign another player to an extension, like Marte, Alvarez, or even Gerrit Cole.

Internal Options

The Pirates do still have some internal options they could use to take over the right field position.  As I mentioned above, Jose Tabata put together a very nice season in 2013, possibly the best of his career.  He was inconsistent, but once he was receiving consistent playing time in the final two months, he was able to provide a lot of offense for the playoff push.  It is worth mentioning that Tabata will be playing the majority of the 2014 season at age 25, and that he has never spent a full season in the majors.  He will be making $3 million in 2014, and it may be wise to see what the Pirates have in a young player who was such a vital part of their future only a few years ago.  Another player the Pirates could give a chance to is Andrew Lambo.  Lambo, the number 49 prospect in baseball heading into 2009, was largely forgotten about heading into the 2013 season, but he brought himself back into the spotlight after hitting 33 home runs across AA, AAA, and the majors this year.  Lambo started out hot in AA, but there were questions as to whether he could continue this production at higher levels, as he spent parts of six seasons at AA.  He answered that question by continuing his performance at AAA, posting an even higher OPS at the level (.933) compared to AA (.910).  He was called up to the majors in late August, and it seemed like he was going to be the starting right fielder, but the team traded for Marlon Byrd soon after, and Lambo never received regular playing time.  Lambo would provide the Pirates with another potential power bat in their lineup, and could also get on base at a good rate.  If the Pirates don't like the idea of starting either Tabata or Lambo full time, they could also use Tabata against lefties and Lambo against righties.  Lambo destroyed righties in the minors this year, posting a .944 OPS against them, but Tabata actually hit better against righties this year, as well.  Tabata has slightly better career numbers against lefties, so you would hope that he could produce well in his platoon role.
The third internal option the Pirates could have at some point in the 2014 season is Gregory Polanco.  Polanco is currently the number two prospect in the system behind Jameson Taillon, and one could make an argument for Polanco being ahead of Taillon, and is also ranked as the 13th best prospect in the game by Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com.  Polanco didn't have the same success that he had at the plate in 2012, but he still put up a solid season at higher levels, with a line of .285/.356/.434, with 12 home runs, 38 stolen bases, and a .791 OPS.  Polanco is a true five-tool talent, with the ability to hit for average and power, along with a plus arm, plus-plus speed and a plus-plus glove in center.  Like Marte, Polanco is good enough defensively in center field to move McCutchen to a corner spot, but that isn't going to happen so Polanco will be used in right when he reaches the majors.  The big question is when will Polanco be ready?  He was in a similar situation as Marte was coming into 2012, and Marte was called up in July, which could be used as a good timeframe for Polanco.


Once again, Marlon Byrd was great in his time with the Pirates.  The Pirates have already shown interest in re-signing him, which wouldn't be a terrible move, but it wouldn't be the right move.  The market price to sign Byrd this offseason will be driven up by recent signings like Hunter Pence, and could rise even more with the signings of other free agent outfielders.  Also, the Pirates have some talented internal options with Jose Tabata and Andrew Lambo, both of whom deserve chances to prove themselves at the major league level.  The Pirates have the number 13 prospect in baseball with Gregory Polanco, and he could be ready to contribute to the major league team at some point in 2014.  The Pirates could very well get more production out of their internal options than Marlon Byrd could provide them in 2014, and at a much cheaper price.  Although Byrd put up All-Star numbers in 2013, it is very unlikely he repeats those numbers, and the Pirates will be better off letting him sign with another team and starting the season with Tabata and/or Lambo in right field, with Polanco waiting in the wings.

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment section below.

The Pirates Shouldn't Pursue Justin Morneau

Jon Heyman is reporting that Justin Morneau is "drawing interest" from the Pirates, which would not be a good move for the Pirates.  Morneau has a batting line of .262/.323/.393 in 374 at bats this year, with eight home runs and a .716 OPS.
Morneau would be a rental for the Pirates, as his six year deal that began in 2008 comes to an end after this season, and he will become a free agent.  With his contract status (he is making $14 million this year) and lack of production, Morneau should not cost much at all from a prospect status, but there is really no reason for the Pirates to make a deal for him.  Morneau's OPS+ of 96 is lower than both Garrett Jones's (107) and Gaby Sanchez's (118), so he would not be an upgrade at the position offensively.  He also wouldn't help the team much defensively, as his defense has regressed over the past few years.
Morneau is in his age 32 season, so he is past his prime and there are no indications that he will improve upon his current numbers.  He has a .561 OPS in his last eleven games, and has really struggled against left handed pitchers, with a .620 OPS against them in 113 at bats this year.  He's also not getting unlucky, as his .301 Batting Average on Balls In Play this year  is actually higher than his career number of .294.
A deal for Morneau wouldn't make much sense for the Pirates, and any deal they make should be for an upgrade in right field, where they really don't have an answer outside of Alex Presley at this point.  The Pirates are interested in two of the Cubs' outfielders in Nate Schierholtz and David DeJesus.  I would prefer Schierholtz out of those two, as he is cheaper and is providing more offensive production.

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.

Three Trade Ideas For The Pirates

The Major League Baseball trade deadline is only a few days away, and with the Pirates currently 1.5 games out of first in their division and 8.0 games ahead of the third team in the wild card race, the Bucs are expected to make a move.  Right field has been an offensive hole for the Pirates in 2013, the team could use an upgrade at first, and a major league team can never have too much pitching.  There have been some names that the Pirates are said to have interest in, including Alex Rios, Nate Schierholtz, Hunter Pence, and Bud Norris.  While these players would fill positional needs for the team, they aren't necessarily great fits for the organization.  Rios would only provide a slight upgrade in right, and with his contract of $12 million in 2013 and $12.5 million in 2014 (with a $13.5 million team option for 2015), it wouldn't make sense to give up any kind of prospect for his services.  Schierholtz is having a very good year this year, but has been used almost exclusively as a left handed platoon player, something the Pirates may already have.  He has a career .691 OPS against lefties, so wouldn't be much use there.  If the Pirates could get him for a cheap price, he may be a good target, but as possibly the most sought after right fielder on the market, he will only be had for a steeper price that is much higher than his actual value.  For a smaller market team like the Pirates, it's not a good idea to go after a short term slight upgrade at the expense of your future.  Pence may not even be on the market, but he would be completely overvalued for his production and would leave after two months.  As for Bud Norris as an option, I'm going to just say no and hope I never hear of it again.  So, if the Pirates need to make a move, who should they target?  Here are three trade ideas, some that could help the Pirates now, and some that could help them in the future.


Toronto Blue Jays:  1B Adam Lind for IF Ivan De Jesus and RHP Stolmy Pimentel
Lind is in the middle of his best season since his stellar 2009 campaign, and currently has an .848 with 12 home runs in 298 at bats.  Lind comes with a relatively cheap price of $5 million for this year, with club options for the next three years at $7.0 million, $7.5 million, and $8.0 million.  Lind has been more of a platoon player in Toronto, a position that he would remain in with Pittsburgh, pushing Garrett Jones into right field against lefties.  The price wouldn't be too high for Lind, and the fact that De Jesus and Pimentel could contribute to the Blue Jays this year would make this a do-able deal for each team.  Lind doesn't produce a high WAR and has been inconsistent over the past few years, so the deal would not require a top prospect.

Seattle Mariners:  1B Kendrys Morales and OF Dustin Ackley for OF  Jerry Sands, RHP Nick Kingham, OF Willy Garcia, and RHP Vin Mazzaro
This is a deal that could potentially help the Pirates now and in the future.  The addition of Morales would give the Pirates an everyday first baseman who can hit from both sides of the plate, without a weakness from either side.  He is in his final year of arbitration and will become a free agent at the end of the season, but the Pirates could bring him back with an extension and promise of being the everyday first baseman, something the Pirates may not have in their system (although Alex Dickerson is looking more and more like that player).  Ackley was the second pick in the 2009 draft for the Mariners, but has really struggled at the major league level over the past couple seasons.  The Pirates could make a Travis Snider-like deal for him, including reliever Vin Mazzaro in the deal like they did with Brad Lincoln in 2012.

Miami Marlins:  OF Giancarlo Stanton for RHP Jameson Taillon, OF Gregory Polanco, C Tony Sanchez, RHP Duke Welker
OK, this trade will most likely never happen.  Stanton is the best player on a young team that is very exciting, with other players like Jose Fernandez, Christian Yelich, and Jake Marisnick.  But, Stanton displayed a lot of displeasure with the Marlins after their trading binge over the offseason, so a lot of people speculated that Stanton would be available for trades as well.  To this point, the Marlins' management and ownership have insisted that he isn't available, but the Pirates have been said to be calling The Marlins very often regarding Stanton.  This trade would give the Pirates one of the best right fielders and power hitters in the game until at least 2016, and could be even longer if the Pirates could sign him to an extension.  The Marlins would be receiving two of the top 15 prospects in the MLB for Stanton in Taillon and Polanco.  Judging by how the Marlins have been aggressively pushing players to the majors this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see both Taillon and Polanco on the Marlins in 2013, were a trade to occur.  This would be huge trade for both teams, and one that could definitely benefit both teams.  The Pirates would have a long term solution in right, which has been a weak spot this season, and the Marlins could have a potential ace and five star center fielder.  As a Pirates fan, just think about how great it would be to have Marte, McCutchen, and Stanton in your outfield.


The trade deadline is quickly approaching, and there is some pressure on the Pirates to make a trade.  Do they have to?  No.  Do I suggest they make a trade?  Not necessarily, these are just three trade ideas that I think would improve the team now and possibly in the future.  I would love for the Pirates to get Giancarlo Stanton, and the Pirates would love that too, but it is a very unlikely deal.  There haven't been many, if any, rumors about any of these deals actually being talked about, but they are some thought provoking trades a few days ahead of the deadline.

If any of our readers have any trade ideas, I'd love to hear and discuss them!  You can leave you ideas in the comment section below, or tell me on twitter @mikemaw45.

Would Alex Rios Be An Upgrade/Worth It For The Pirates?

Over the last few weeks, there have been multiple rumors that the Pirates have real interest in the Alex Rios, the right fielder for the Chicago White Sox.  There was even a moment when Pirates fans thought that maybe a deal had gone down between the two teams when Rios was taken out of a game within twenty minutes of Pirates' top shortstop Alen Hanson being taken out of his game.  That was soon found to be a pure coincidence, as Rios was taken out for not hustling, and Hanson was in the second game of a double header in which his team had a huge win.

Right field has been a weakness for the Pirates this year, with Travis Snider, who came into the season as the starter at the position, having an OPS of .629 coming into the game on July 24th.  The Pirates have also used Garrett Jones, Alex Presley, Brandon Inge, Jose Tabata, Josh Harrison, and even Russell Martin at the position.  Tabata is the current starter at right, and after a hot start after his return from injury, has settled down to a .738 OPS in 135 at bats on the season.  Rios currently has a batting line of .278/.333/.442 in 371 at bats, with 12 home runs, 21 stolen bases, and an OPS of .775.  Those numbers would clearly suggest that he has been better than what the Pirates have in right, but would he really be an upgrade?

If you look at it from a player vs. player standpoint, Rios would surely be an upgrade over Tabata, Presley, Snider, and Andrew Lambo.  But, would he be an upgrade over a potential platoon between Tabata and any one of the other three lefty options? (I'm leaving Garrett Jones out, as he should be part of a platoon at first with Gaby Sanchez)  Here we are going to examine the potential production of those platoon options, and compare those to the potential production from Alex Rios, who is a right handed hitter.  We are going to start by evaluating Jose Tabata's side of the platoon, which would be against left handed pitching.

Jose Tabata vs. Lefties
I'm going to start this section by giving a stat that is somewhat surprising: Jose Tabata actually has a higher OPS+ than Alex Rios this season, with Tabata's number at 109 and Rios' at 106.  That doesn't mean Tabata has been better than Rios, and that is conveyed by Tabata's 0.0 WAR, compared to Rios' WAR of 1.4 (those numbers according to Baseball Reference).
Over his career, Tabata hasn't really shown much, if any, of a platoon split, with a career .720 OPS against lefties and a .711 OPS against righties.  This season, Tabata has actually had a pretty large reverse platoon split, with a .775 OPS  against righties and a .632 OPS against lefties.  For any of these platoons to have any chance of working, Tabata's numbers would have to gravitate closer to that .720 career number, and would actually need some improvement beyond that number.

Travis Snider vs. Righties
In Snider's major league career, his OPS vs. right handed pitchers in almost 100 points higher than his OPS against lefties, with a .721 number against righties and .630 against lefties.  Neither of those numbers warrant him a starting position, even in a platoon situation.  Snider's numbers vs righties have been even worse this year, with a .662 OPS, meaning Snider shouldn't be starting against any pitcher at this point.

Alex Presley vs. Righties
Presley has been a decent hitter against righties in his career, with a .749 OPS, but that would be enough to give him a spot in a platoon role.  On the season Presley has a solid .824 OPS against righties, but that comes in a very small sample size of 34 at bats, so his career .749 number would give a better indication of the number he would put up over the rest of the season in a platoon role.

Andrew Lambo vs. Righties
Lambo's numbers come with the disclaimer that they have been against minor league pitchers.  Still, his numbers have been very impressive against right handers this year, with a .304 average, 19 home runs, and 1.002 OPS in 261 at bats.  Lambo would definitely be a good platoon option for the Pirates, probably the best the team has for this situation (outside of Jones), but at this point there doesn't seem to be a match for him in right field.

Alex Rios
Rios' OPS of .775 against any pitcher this year would be better than any of the Pirates players' splits, so Rios would definitely be an upgrade over any situation the Pirates currently have in their organization.  Rios is only slightly better against lefties in his career, and the Pirates wouldn't trade for Rios to simply be a platoon player regardless.


The answer to this question was much more simple than I anticipated, as Rios would clearly be an upgrade over any player or platoon situation the Pirates could put together in right field.  Does that mean the team needs to trade for him?  It certainly doesn't, but these numbers do show that the Pirates are going to have a big weakness at the position during the pennant race unless they make a move.  The trade market is pretty weak this year, but the Pirates don't need to make a trade for Rios.  It would make some sense, but they would be taking on Rios' $12.5 million contract in 2014, and would have a $14 million club option for 2015.  If the Pirates acquired Rios on the July 31st deadline, they would be paying him a minimum of $17.82 million over the 2013-2014 seasons, assuming they buyout his option year in 2015.  That number could be lowered if the White Sox offer some salary relief, but I would suggest against that for the Pirates as that would cost a higher grade prospect, something that Rios, who is 32 years old, is not worth at this point in his career.  Rios has a 4.3 WAR over the past two and a half seasons, and his numbers will most likely decline as he grows older.

Rios would provide the Pirates with a short term upgrade in right field for the 2013 playoff run, but his contract status, price for a trade, and age would make it a somewhat foolish move for the Pirates.  Jose Tabata has enough talent and has the potential to hold down the right field spot, at least until top prospect Gregory Polanco is ready to take over at some point in 2014.  The Pirates could always look for a cheaper option like they did with Travis Snider in 2012, but those are very rare on the current trade market.  As I said in my post about if the Pirates should pursue a starting pitcher, I find the team better served to stand pat with what they have, as there are no real upgrades on the trade market that would be worth the price.

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment section below.

Pirates Designate Inge For Assignment, Recall Walker and Black

It may seem long overdue, but the Brandon Inge era is over now in Pittsburgh.  Inge, who signed a one year, $1.25 million contract in the offseason, had a very forgettable season for the Pirates this year, with a .181/.204/.238 line, along with one home run in 104 at bats.  Those numbers produced a .442 OPS, 25 OPS+, and -0.6 WAR according to Baseball-Reference.  With that WAR, Inge was tied with Michael McKenry for the title of least valuable player on the Pirates for the 2013 season.  Inge played five different positions for the Pirates, including every infield position and right field.  Since he was designated for assignment, the Pirates have ten days to trade, release, or pass Inge through waivers.  Judging by the way he has played this year, I would assume that he will be released, as there will be no takers for his services.

With Inge being DFA'd and Jason Grilli being sent to the DL today, the Pirates had two open roster spots.  Those spots were taken by second baseman Neil Walker and AAA Indianapolis Indians' closing pitcher, Vic Black.

Walker is in the middle of what seems to be a down year offensively, but he hasn't had much of chance to get on track this year, with multiple stints on the DL keeping him from getting long stretches of at bats.  He has a line of .244/.347/.284 in 250 at bats, including six home runs, 26 RBI, and a .731 OPS.  He will step back into his spot as the everyday second baseman, with Jordy Mercer moving back to shortstop.

Black was the closer for the Pirates AAA affiliate in Indianapolis this season, putting up a 2.31 ERA in 35 IP, including 15 saves.  He has a great K/9 rate, at 13.1, and has shown improved control this year.  Control was his main issue coming into the season, with a career 4.7 BB/9 coming into the season, but his 3.3 BB/9 rate this year show his continuing development.

This is what I said about Black in my 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Prospect Preview:

19) Victor Black--RHP--25--AAA
Black was drafted in the supplemental first round of the 2009 draft, but didn't live up to his hype until last season.  In 2012, he posted a 1.65 ERA in 60 IP, with a 12.8 K/9 and 1.15 WHIP.  Control has been a problem in his career, and that continued in 2012, with a 4.4 BB/9.  Black has a plus fastball that sits 96-98 MPH, touching 99, and pairs that with a plus slider.  If he can improve his control a little, he could be a future option for closer with the Pirates, and that future may not be far away.

Well, the future is now with Victor Black, in a sense that he is now part of the major league bullpen.  He has reached triple digits with his fastball this season, and pairs that with his wipeout slider to make a great two pitch combo.  Black could be one of the top closing options in the coming years when Grilli/Melancon are gone, or begin to struggle.

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment section below.

Should The Pirates Pursue A Starting Pitcher?

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 57-39 on July 21st, something that may sound a little strange to a fanbase that celebrated only 57 wins throughout the entire 2010 season.  Ok, maybe celebrated isn't the right word there.  But the fact is that the team has drastically improved over the last three seasons, and is now only two games back in the NL Central and 7.5 games ahead in the wild card race, with 66 games remaining in the season.  There is no question as to what has put this team in the position they are in, and that is the pitching.  Coming into the game on July 21st, the pitching staff (starters and bullpen) leads the National League in ERA (3.10) and hits allowed, and also ranks fourth with 739 strikeouts.  The trio of Jeff Locke, Francisco Liriano, and A.J. Burnett have a combined 2.54 ERA.  Out of the six pitchers who have started at least seven games, the highest ERA belongs to Gerrit Cole at 3.89.  That group doesn't include Charlie Morton, who has a 3.19 ERA in six starts.  Basically, the Pirates' pitching starting pitching staff has been phenomenal in the innings they have pitched.
With the trade deadline in a little over a week, the rumor mill has been heating up and the Pirates have been connected to a couple names in the starting pitching market.  Those players are Matt Garza of the Cubs and Bud Norris of the Astros.  The Pirates are said to be one of the top options for Garza, and Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times stated that the Pirates were the "team du jour" for Garza.  But, with all the success that the Pirates have had with their starters this season, should the team pursue a starting pitcher?
To answer this question, we have to look at a few factors.  The first factor is the durability and depth of the current rotation.  Secondly, we have to see how the rotation projects for the rest of the season from a statistical standpoint.  Finally, we have to take a look at what it will cost the Pirates to acquire a player like Matt Garza or Bud Norris, and if that package would be worth it.  So, let's get started.

Depth and Durability
To this point in the season, the Pirates have used eleven different starting pitchers, including Burnett, Liriano, Locke, Cole, Morton, Wandy Rodriguez, Jeanmar Gomez, James McDonald, Brandon Cumpton, Jonathan Sanchez, and Phil Irwin.  Out of those players, Rodriguez, McDonald, and Irwin are currently on the DL, and Burnett, Morton, and Liriano have also spent time on the DL during this season (Kyle McPherson, who was battling for the fifth starter spot in spring training, recently had Tommy John surgery on July 10th).  Rodriguez and McDonald aren't expected back until late August or September, and Cumpton and Irwin are spot starters at best this year who aren't ready to spend significant time in a major league rotation.  Sanchez was released in April and has since done terrible for the Dodgers' AAA affiliate.  Also, I don't think Jeanmar Gomez has the ability to be a member of a rotation that is competing for a pennant, as he has not had much previous success in his 38 major league starts before joining the Pirates, and wasn't great in the minors.   That leaves the Pirates with a rotation of Burnett, Liriano, Locke, Cole, and Morton heading into September, which is definitely a good rotation to have.  But, what happens if one of those pitchers goes down with an injury?  Liriano and Morton both have track records of injuries, and Gerrit Cole only pitched 132 innings last year, and is already at 109.2 IP with over two months remaining.  Chances are, at least one of these five is going to go down with an injury, and would you be comfortable with Jeanmar Gomez as the fifth starter in a pennant race?  Other options from AAA that aren't listed above are Stolmy Pimentel and Andy Oliver.  Pimentel got off to a great start in AA, struggled after that, then was promoted to AAA and has a 2.74 ERA in seven starts there.  He also owns a very impressive 0.98 WHIP in 46 AAA innings.  Oliver would only be used in desperate measures, as I'm not positive he's aware that there is a strike zone, with an 8.2 BB/9 in 100 innings.  Fans would be calling for the team to call up top prospect Jameson Taillon, but that just isn't going to happen.
The Pirates currently have five guys that are healthy and good enough to pitch in a contending team's rotation.  After those five guys, there isn't much help on the way until September when Rodriguez should be able to return, barring any setbacks.  That will give the team six good starters in the September playoff race, but until then, the team will be playing with fire as there is a good chance one of the five starters goes down with an injury.  If Jeanmar Gomez would pitch the way he already has in the rotation this year, he would be a fine replacement, but I don't see that as being likely.  James McDonald could also be an option in September if someone goes down with an injury, but otherwise he really has no chance at being in the rotation again this year.


Rotation Projection
In the last section I stated that the Pirates currently have five pitchers that are set to be in the rotation going into September, along with Wandy Rodriguez in September and Jeanmar Gomez being a replacement starter.  As I also previously stated, the rotation has been fantastic this year from a statistical standpoint, but can they keep it up?  Let's take a look at those seven players and see how they project for the remainder of the season.

A.J. Burnett:  Burnett currently has an ERA of 3.07 and xFIP of 3.13, along with a .288 Batting Average of Balls In Play (BABIP), which is very close to his career number of .290.  His other advanced stats line up with his career numbers as well, so it is a safe bet that Burnett will continue to pitch the way he has for the rest of the year.

Francisco Liriano:  I expected Liriano to be due for a big regression before I looked at his advanced stats, but he actually has been pitching better than I thought this year.  He has a 2.44 ERA, which isn't far off his 2.81 FIP or 3.08 xFIP.  His strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career numbers, as is his BABIP and ground ball ratio.  The only thing concerning about Liriano is his Home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB) and left on base percentage (LOB%).  His HR/FB ratio is currently 7.5%, which leads to a 0.44 HR/9 rate.  His career numbers with those are 10.5% and 0.85, which leads me to believe that he will be letting up a few more home runs as the year progresses.  His LOB% is at 82.6%, while his career number is at 70.9%.  That means that he has been getting lucky with year with fly balls and runners on base, and he is due for some regression in that area.  Still, that shouldn't affect him too drastically, and he should still be pitching with an ERA around 3.00-3.50 for the rest of the year.

Jeff Locke:  If there is one player on the team that is due for a big regression, it's Jeff Locke.  His ERA is at 2.11, but his FIP is 3.77 and his xFIP is 4.22.  In fact, coming into his most recent start ZiPS projected him to have a 4.60 ERA for the rest of the year.  Do I think that will happen?  No, but I also don't think he will finish the year with a 2.11 ERA.  He has a very high LOB% at 83.3%, and a very low BABIP of .228, and both will eventually start to revert to normal, causing a more inflated ERA.  That being said, Jeff Locke has said to be due for regression for at least a couple months now, and he has only improved on his statistics in that time, leading many to believe this season isn't a complete fluke.  Still, expect at least a slight regression for Locke the rest of the way, with an ERA somewhere in the threes.

Gerrit Cole:  Cole's advanced numbers would actually suggest improvement as the year goes on, which isn't much of a surprise.  He hasn't overwhelmed hitters to this point, with a 5.40 K/9 rate, a number that has to improve with his ability.  His FIP and xFIP are both lower than his ERA of 3.89, with his FIP being much lower at 3.22.  As long as Cole stays in the rotation, he should see improvements in his ERA and strikeout totals.

Charlie Morton:  I'm not as high as Charlie Morton as some others are, but he is a good number five starter.  He has only pitched in six games, so his stats are a small sample size, but his ERA of 3.19 is due to regress, as his FIP is 4.44 and his xFIP is 4.18.  There are no concerns with his LOB% or ground ball rate, but his BABIP is 40 points lower than his career number.  Expect Morton's ERA to be around 4.00-4.25 for the remainder of the year, with a little give or take each way.

Wandy Rodriguez:  Wandy was pitching well before his injury, with a 3.59 ERA in 62.2 innings.  He was pretty consistent, but the numbers would suggest that he was due for moderate regression, with a 4.43 FIP and 4.04 xFIP.  His BABIP was far below his career number of .296, at .255 when he went to the DL.  His LOB% was also relatively high at 80.0% when compared to his career number of  71.6%.  But, the injury may have stalled any regression, so when he returns we can expect Wandy to pitch like he normally does, with an ERA in the 3.50-4.00 range.

Jeanmar Gomez:  Basically all of Gomez's stats would suggest that he is going to regress for the remainder of the year.  We all know he isn't going to be able to sustain his current 2.65 ERA, it's just a question of how far it will regress.  His FIP is 4.16 and his xFIP is 4.05, so we can assume his ERA will be over 4.00 until the season ends.  He has been very lucky this year, stranding over ten percent more baserunners than his career number, along with a BABIP of .228 compared to a career number of .290.  Gomez's season has been a pleasant surprise to this point, but in all likelihood his success won't continue.

Only Locke, Morton and Gomez are due for a significant amount of regression, and it seems like Locke may not regress as much as expected.  The rotation won't perform quite as well as they have to this point as the season goes on, but the numbers don't suggest they will perform too much worse.  They may have a problem at the back end of their rotation if Morton falters, as there isn't a truly good replacement expected until Rodriguez returns in September.


What Will It Take To Get Garza or Norris- Is It Worth It?
When looking at what it would take to acquire a player, you have to look at a few factors.  One factor is obviously how they are doing this year and how they have performed in the past.  One good year may really inflate a player's price, but a down year may not mean as much when he has performed well in the past.  Another important factor is how many years are remaining on the player's contract or how many years is he under team control.  A third factor is how much money would the team be taking on when they acquire the player.  Using these factors, lets look at what it may take to get Garza or Norris, and if it would be worth it.

Matt Garza:  Garza is in his final year of arbitration, making $10.2 million this year, and set for free agency once the season ends.  The Pirates would have to pay the just over $4 million remaining on his contract.  He has an ERA of 3.17 as of July 21st, and an xFIP of 3.86.  He is due for moderate regression, as ZiPS projects him to have an ERA of 3.76 for the remainder of the season.  With all those factors, you would think it would cost about what it took to get Wandy Rodriguez last year, but the Cubs are said to have an "exceptionally high" asking price for Garza, one that included top prospect Mike Olt in a potential deal with the Rangers.  As I said in my post Pirates Top 30 Prospects Before the Trade Deadline, I wouldn't give up any of the top ten prospects in the system for any of the names that are being floated out on the trade market, and that is what it would take to get Garza at this point, plus a couple more players.  With Garza hitting free agency at the end of the year, it would not be worth it giving up a top ten prospect for a two month rental.

Bud Norris:  Norris is in his first year of arbitration eligibility in 2013, so he would be under team control until for the next two years, hitting free agency after the 2015 season.  He is only making $3 million this year, and doesn't project to make a substantial amount in his next two arbitration years, so money won't be an issue here.  Norris has a 3.91 ERA this year, and isn't projected to improve or regress much.  The Pirates would be trading for a guy that will most likely put up an ERA of around 4.00 for this year and the next two years, which can come at a surprisingly steep price.  According to Tim Williams's trade value calculator over at Piratesprospects.com, it could take a top 51-100 pitching prospect and a grade C pitching prospect, or a top 51-100 hitting prospect.  Basically that is Luis Heredia and and a player like Clay Holmes in a package, or a hitter like Josh Bell or even Alen Hanson.  Bud Norris isn't a bad pitcher, but I wouldn't give up any of those packages for two and a half years of a league average pitcher.


After looking at all the factors, we can make a better decision if the Pirates should pursue a starting pitcher.  The starting pitching depth may look great from the outside, but if you look deeper the Pirates could use another starter, especially with Charlie Morton due to regress, and the injury history of the current rotation.  But, the current trade market is weak, and if Matt Garza and Bud Norris are the only real targets that the Pirates have, then they are probably better served to stand pat with their rotation and hope that no serious injuries occur.  Some of the pitchers will start to fall back to earth with their numbers, but the rotation should continue putting up some of the best numbers in the NL.  The group of six starters, excluding Gomez, averages almost exactly six innings per start, a number that you would like to see improve a little, but also a number that isn't too bad.  It will be interesting to see how the Pirates handle Gerrit Cole's innings situation, as he is on pace to pitch around 180 innings this year after only pitching 132 innings in his pro debut last year.

The Pirates do have questions facing the rotation for the remainder of the year, but currently it doesn't look like the trade market has the answers.  Some suggest that the Pirates go after the Phillies' Cliff Lee, but that would be too steep of a price for the Pirates, both economically speaking and from a prospect standpoint.  Also, the Phillies are only 6.5 games back in their division, so they may feel they can still compete.  I don't think it would be a bad idea to ask the White Sox about Chris Sale, but that would be an extremely unlikely scenario.  With nothing of much value out on the starting pitching trade market, the Pirates should stay where they are with a rotation of Burnett, Liriano, Locke, Cole, and Morton until September when Rodriguez replaces Morton, and wait until next year for players like Jameson Taillon and Nick Kingham to contribute to the major league rotation.

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.

Pirates Top 30 Prospects Before The Trade Deadline

Well, it's been awhile since I've posted anything, and I seem to be starting a lot of my most recent articles like that.  I'm going to try and change that, and with the trade deadline quickly approaching, I should have plenty to write about.
The Pirates have been rumored to be interested in players like Alex Rios, Hunter Pence, and Bud Norris.  Trading for these players would possibly require a package of prospects, so I thought I'd update my top 30 prospects in the organization to kick off my trade deadline coverage, and to give everyone an idea of the talent that may be given up in trades.  Personally, I don't think the Pirates should give up any of the players ranked in the top 10 here, as there isn't a player on the trade block that would provide enough short or long term value to warrant such a trade (that is unless the team somehow pulled off a deal for Giancarlo Stanton, which I would approve but isn't going to happen).
While ranking these players, I realized just how good the Pirates system has become, even without Gerrit Cole.  The system's top 10 prospects may very well be the best in all of baseball, and the team has guys in the 11-20 range that would easily be top 10 prospects if they were in a different organization.  If I were the general manager of the Pirates, I wouldn't try for a big deadline deal, as the names out there right now aren't really worth the price, and wouldn't be major upgrades over what the team already has.  I'm not sure if there's any player out their that would fit the mold, but if the team could fine another deal similar to the Travis Snider trade from last year, that would be preferable.  I would simply continue to build the major league club through the farm system, which has been very effective to this point.

Top 30 Prospects In the Pirates System
1.) Jameson Taillon--RHP--21--AA
2.) Gregory Polanco--OF--21--AA
3.) Tyler Glasnow--RHP--19--A
4.) Luis Heredia--RHP--18--A
5.) Alen Hanson--SS--20--A+
6.) Austin Meadows--OF--18--Rookie
7.) Nick Kingham--RHP--21--AA
8.) Reese McGuire--C--18--Rookie
9.) Josh Bell--OF--20--A
10.) Barrett Barnes--OF--21--A
11.) Tony Sanchez--C--25--AAA
12.) Stolmy Pimentel--RHP--23--AAA
13.) Victor Black--RHP--25--AAA
14.) Dilson Herrera--2B--19--A
15.) Stetson Allie--1B--22--A+
16.) Kyle McPherson--RHP--25--AAA DL
17.) Harold Ramirez--OF--18--A-
18.) Andrew Lambo--OF--24--AAA
19.) Wyatt Mathisen--C--19--A DL
20.) Jin-De Jhang--C--20--A-
21.) Clay Holmes--RHP--20--A
22.) Elvis Escobar--OF--18--A-
23.) Blake Taylor--LHP--18--Rookie
24.) Ivan De Jesus Jr--2B/SS--26--AAA
25.) Alex Dickerson--1B--23--AA
26.) Brandon Cumpton--RHP--24--AAA
27.) Jacoby Jones--CF/SS--21--A-
28.) Joely Rodriguez--LHP--21--A+
29.) Willy Garcia--OF--20--A+
30.) Max Moroff--SS--20--A

If you would like me to expand on any prospect, you can ask in the comment section below.  If you have any other questions, comments, or something you would like me to write about, you can also post in the comment section or tweet me @mikemaw45.

MLB Draft: First Day Recap

The Pirates came into the first day of the 2013 MLB draft with the number nine and number fourteen picks, as well as the 51st overall pick in the second round.  With those picks, they selected three high school players, two being left handed hitters, and the other being a left handed pitcher.

9th Overall Pick: Austin Meadows
Meadows came into the draft ranked number six on my draft board and number five on Baseball America's draft board.  He is a potential five tool talent who was a centerfielder in the prep ranks, and the Pirates hope he can stay in that position as a pro.
The Pirates were heavily linked to high school catcher Reese McGuire with the ninth overall pick, but when Meadows fell to them, the Pirates didn't pass on the upside that Meadows brings.  He could hit for average and power, along with being a threat on the base paths with great fielding range in center.  He came into the year with a chance to be the number one overall pick, but he didn't hit for as much power as some scouts would've like to see from him.  Still, he has a solid swing and a 6'3, 200-210 pound frame that is ideal for a power hitter.  I see his upside as a Matt Kemp type player (when Kemp is healthy), but obviously that will take a lot of things to go the right way for that to happen.  General Manager Neal Huntington stayed true to his draft board with this pick, something that you definitely like to see from your GM.

14th Overall Pick: Reese McGuire
As I previously stated, the Pirates were heavily linked to McGuire with the number nine overall pick, but took Meadows instead after he fell to them.  I thought it would be unlikely that McGuire would still be available to the Pirates with the number fourteen pick, so I was surprised that he was still available there.  Also available to the Pirates at that pick was Nevada pitcher Braden Shipley.  I had ranked him as the seventh best prospect in the draft and actually preferred him to McGuire with this pick.  I wanted Shipley because he was a college pitcher that isn't too far from the majors, with a good fastball, great changeup, and potential for an above average curve.  Shipley has an upside of a number two starter, and I felt he would have been a good addition to the organization, especially after taking a high upside high school hitter with the first pick.  That being said, I think Reese McGuire is a very good fourteenth overall selection, as there was some talk he could go as high as number four overall to the Twins.  He is a defensive first catcher with a plus arm that can really control the running game.  Also, McGuire has been calling his own games since little league, giving him great experience that is very rare from the high school ranks.  The main question mark about McGuire is the upside that he brings with his bat.  He's a left handed hitter that has the potential to hit for a decent/good average with moderate power, but his defense will always be the strong part of his game.

51st Overall Pick: Blake Taylor
With their second round pick, the Pirates selected high school projectable left hander Blake Taylor.  Taylor sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but can reach the mid 90's at times.  He has good sink on that fastball that leads to a lot of ground ball outs.  He adds a curve to his arsenal, a pitch that has a chance to be above average in the future, but some feel it will remain an average pitch.  He doesn't have a changeup at this point, something that he will need to develop in order to remain a starter.  I didn't have Taylor ranked in my top 50 draft prospects, but I did add him in the next 25 prospect to watch section.

Pirates Select Reese McGuire At #14

The Pirates have selected high school catcher Reese McGuire with the fourteenth overall pick in the 2013 MLB Draft.

Here's my scouting report for McGuire from my draft preview:

11) Reese McGuire--C--L/R--6'1--190--HS
McGuire is a defensive first catcher who has the best arm from behind the plate in the draft.  He has incredible pop times to go along with that 70-80 arm (on the 20-80 scale), and has improved his receiving skills since last season.  His bat is questionable, and doesn't have the upside of other high school catchers in this class, but he could hit for a decent-good average with moderate power.  Regardless, he will remain a defensive first catcher who can really control the running game.

McGuire is really a defense first catcher with a decent chance of being a good hitter, and his plus arm is the tool that stands out the most.  Personally, I would have taken Braden Shipley with this pick, as he was the number nine guy on my board, compared to McGuire at number eleven.  With two first round picks, I would've gone one high school player and one college player, but the Pirates went with two high school guys.  That being said, the Pirates wanted McGuire at the number nine pick before Meadows fell, and McGuire was far from a bad pick at number fourteen.  

Pirates Select Austin Meadows At #9

The Pittsburgh Pirates have selected Austin Meadows as the ninth overall pick in the 2013 MLB draft.

Here's my scouting report of him from my draft preview:

6) Austin Meadows--OF--L/L--6'3--200--HSMeadows has the potential to be a five-tool talent, and may have the best shot at being that type of player out of anyone in this draft class.  He has the range to handle center field, along with the speed and arm to make it in any outfield position.  He makes good contact with a solid swing, but hasn't produced as much power in games as scouts would like him to.  If he develops power, he has the highest upside of any player in this class. 

Meadows was the best player still on the board for the Pirates at number nine, so the Pirates made the correct choice here.  There's not much question as to whether he will sign or not, but it will probably take around the slotted amount of $3,029,600 to sign him to a deal.  He has the highest upside of any high school position player in this draft class, and will most likely start in the rookie level Gulf Coast League if he plays this year.  Expect him to start the year in Low-A West Virginia in 2014.

2013 Draft Preview: My Draft Board

The 2013 MLB draft is coming up on Thursday, and just like last year, it is unclear who will be taken at the top of the draft.  Also similar to last year, this year's crop of talent is considered to be relatively weak, especially when compared to the 2011 draft.  However, there is some depth in this year's class, mostly in the prep ranks.  There is a lot of high school catching talent that should come off the board early, as well as some depth with high school lefties.  The prospects at the top of the draft are mostly college players and high school hitters.  After that, we see a lot of high-risk, high-upside high school pitchers, along with some safer college players.
This is the first time I have scouted the draft to this extent and made a draft board along with it, and I approached it by reading scouting reports and watching videos from MLB.com and Keith Law, as well as any other websites that had player rankings, mock drafts, or videos of the players.  From reading these reports and watching videos of the prospects, I made my own judgments on the ultimate upside of players, their floors, and what tools they do or do not have.  With all that, I created a draft board of 50 players in order of how I would draft them if I were an MLB General Manager or scouting director (which I will be one day).  I would also like to note that this is not a mock draft, just what I would do.

1) Mark Appel--RHP--6'5--215--College Senior
Appel, who was in contention for the first overall selection in the 2012 draft, returns as the top prospect in the 2013 draft after not signing with the Pirates, who selected him with the number eight overall pick.  Appel is armed with a mid 90's fastball, along with a slider and change, which both grade as plus pitches.  Some scouts say he is the most polished pitcher coming from the draft since Stephen Strasburg, and he is probably the closest player to the majors in this draft class.

2) Jonathan Gray--RHP--6'4--245--College Junior
Gray forced himself to the top of draft boards this year by displaying an upper 90's fastball that has exceeded 100 MPH, even late into games.  He also has a plus-plus slider and commands his pitches well.  Gray has as high an upside as Appel, but isn't as polished at this point, so he will take a little longer to reach the majors.  Sources say Gray recently tested positive for Adderall in the mandatory drug test for the draft's top 200 prospects, which is a banned substance, but most believe this shouldn't have a major impact on his draft status.

3) Kris Bryant--3B--R/R--6'5--215--CJr
Bryant currently leads college baseball in home runs in 2013, with 31 homers in 215 at bats.  To put that in perspective, the next highest home run total in college baseball is 18.  He has the best power in the class, and has cut down on his strikeouts this year, making him better as an overall hitter.  There are questions as to whether he will stay at third base (something you will hear about most amateur third baseman, shortstops, and center fielders), but his strong arm will play well in right field, where he has seen some time this year.

4) Colin Moran--3B--L/R--6'3--215--CJr
Many scouts call Moran the best overall bat in the class, as he hits for average, power, and has amazing plate discipline.  As I stated above, as a college third baseman there are questions as to whether Moran will stay at the position, but he has the hands and the arm strength to stay there if he can improve his footwork.  He is polished enough that he should be able to move quicker through the minors than any other hitter in this draft.

5) Kohl Stewart--RHP--6'3--190--High School
The top prep pitcher in the class, Kohl Stewart has top of the rotation potential, with a fastball that reaches the mid 90's and potential for a plus slider.  He also has a curve and a change, with the curve having the potential to be an above average pitch.  However, he has a commitment to play football at Texas A&M, which could drive up his bonus demands.

6) Austin Meadows--OF--L/L--6'3--200--HS
Meadows has the potential to be a five-tool talent, and may have the best shot at being that type of player out of anyone in this draft class.  He has the range to handle center field, along with the speed and arm to make it in any outfield position.  He makes good contact with a solid swing, but hasn't produced as much power in games as scouts would like him to.  If he develops power, he has the highest upside of any player in this class.

7) Braden Shipley--RHP--6'3--190--CJr
Shipley has performed very well this year, which has shot his name up on draft boards.  He generally sits 92-95 with his fastball, but has reached the 97-99 MPH range.  He also has a changeup that could be a plus pitch, along with a curveball that could be an above average to plus pitch.

8) Clint Frazier--OF--R/R--6'1--190--HS
Frazier and Meadows are both from the same area in Georgia, and many scouts are split on who the better prospect is.  While Meadows is more of an all around player, Frazier could have the better bat.  He has tremendous bat speed with a very short swing that leads to hard contact, and that should give him the potential to have plus power.

9) D.J. Peterson--3B/1B--R/R--6'1--190--CJr
Some say that Peterson is the best overall bat in the draft this year, but he lacks the upside of other college hitters like Bryant or Moran.  He generates good contact with his swing, but I question whether he will continue to have above average power in pro ball.  He will almost surely end up as a first baseman in the future, with average to slightly below average range at third.  He has a high floor, and shouldn't be too far from the majors, but also doesn't have a huge upside.

10) Dominic Smith--1B--L/L--6'0--195--HS
Some scouts believe that Smith has the highest offensive upside of any player in this draft.  He has a great swing that can generate a lot power in the future, but hasn't overwhelmed anyone with his power so far.  As a plus defender at first with a surprisingly good arm, Smith should be able to really focus on his hitting more during his time in the minors, making him a safer bet to hit than most high school players.  I also am very high on high school first basemen who can hit, as they have a very good success rate in their pro careers when taken in the first round.

11) Reese McGuire--C--L/R--6'1--190--HS
McGuire is a defensive first catcher who has the best arm from behind the plate in the draft.  He has incredible pop times to go along with that 70-80 arm (on the 20-80 scale), and has improved his receiving skills since last season.  His bat is questionable, and doesn't have the upside of other high school catchers in this class, but he could hit for a decent-good average with moderate power.  Regardless, he will remain a defensive first catcher who can really control the running game.

12) Hunter Renfroe--OF--R/R--6'1--216--CJr
Renfroe hadn't performed much during his college career entering the 2013 season, but he has become one of the best performers in the NCAA this season.  The raw tools were always there, especially his great raw power and speed combination, along with an above average arm and range in the outfield.  He is the toolsiest college hitter in the draft, and the only other player that can rival his overall package of talent is Austin Meadows.

13) Trey Ball--LHP--6'6--180--HS
Ball is a two-way player, being both a good pitching prospect and a good hitting prospect.  At this point, there's little doubt that Ball will be selected as a pitcher, as he has a much higher upside at that position.  Ball will sit in the low 90's in his starts, and has consistently hit 94 MPH.  With his very projectable body, that velocity could eventually end up sitting in the mid 90's and will even have the chance to hit the upper 90's.  He also has the chance to have an above average curveball in addition to that fastball.  Ball has a lot of upside, but will probably need a lot of development time in the minors.

14) Ryne Stanek--RHP--6'4--190--CJr
Stanek came into the year with the potential to go in the top 3-5 picks, but command issues and problems with his delivery have caused some concerns with scouts.  He also isn't striking out enough batters with the pitches that he has.  Still, he has a fastball that sits 92-94 MPH and can go a little higher, with potential for a plus slider to go with that.

15) J.P. Crawford--SS--L/R--6'2--175--HS
The best shortstop in the class, Crawford will be a coveted player for most teams, especially with picks 10-20.  He has an athletic body, one that could allow him to grow into more power.  With his smooth swing, he could hit 10-15 homers a year in the future if he fills out his body, along with a decent average.  He is a safe bet to stick at short, which is not extremely common for high school shortstops.

16) Nick Ciuffo--C--L/R--6'1--200--HS
Ciuffo is in a solid group of prep catchers this year, and is the best receiving catcher in the class.  He has improved his arm to a point where he should have no trouble staying behind the plate.  He displays good bat speed that will generate a lot of solidly hit balls, and could also give him above average power.  Ciuffo may have the best shot at being a two-way catcher when compared to other catchers in this class, as he has the best combination of offensive and defensive abilities.

17) Chris Anderson--RHP--6'4--225--CJr
I was a little hesitant to put Anderson this high, but with his combination of size, stuff, and improved control this year, I had to put him here.  Earlier in the year, Anderson was hitting 96 MPH with his fastball and paired that with a plus slider.  As the year went on, he began to fade and lost some velocity on his fastball, as well as the feel for his slider.  If he can regain his early season form and keep it as a pro, Anderson could be a number two starter.  If he doesn't regain what he had, then there's a chance he could end up a reliever.

18) Hunter Harvey--RHP--6'3--175--HS
Harvey has a big projectable body, with a fastball that is currently sitting at 90-94 MPH, and is said to have hit 97.  With his body, he could see an increase in velocity as he matures.  He matches that with a potential plus curveball, but doesn't have a third pitch yet.  He doesn't have a good delivery, one that limits arm speed and causes struggle with his command, but it is fixable.  He is a high-risk, high-reward player, and if a player development system fixes his delivery, his body fills out (adding to his velocity), and he discovers a changeup, Harvey could be a top of the rotation pitcher.

19) Sean Manaea--LHP--6'5--235--CJr
Manaea is another player that I was hesitant to have this high.  Manaea started the season with a chance to go number one overall after a brilliant season in the Cape Cod summer league.  There he showed a good fastball that was up to 96 MPH, along with a great slider and good changeup.  During this college season, however, Manaea has dealt with injuries and his velocity has dropped off a bit and his arsenal wasn't what is was during the Cape Cod League.  Despite his stuff not being as sharp and those injury concerns, Manaea has a high upside and good floor, so teams willing to take a risk on him could get a good late first round steal.

20) Matt Krook--LHP--6'4--200--HS
Krook is a big high school lefty that possesses a fastball that sits 88-92 MPH, with a chance to add a little more velocity in the future.  He also has the potential for a plus curve that has good depth and spin to it.  He is mainly a two-pitch guy at this point, but he will flash a rare change at 79-80 MPH.  Scouts feel he needs to work on his delivery, but I don't see too much wrong with it, personally.  If he improves on his velocity a little and gets a better feel for his changeup, he could be a good 2-3 starter in the majors.

21) Marco Gonzales--LHP--6'1--185--CJr
A high floor, low upside college pitcher, Gonzales will sit in the upper 80's and occasionally hit 90-91.  His main weapons are his secondary pitches, with a plus changeup and above average curveball.  He has good command, and all of that combined should allow him to move through a system relatively quickly.

22) Jon Denney--C--R/R--6'2--205--HS
Denney has the look and ability to be an offensive threat behind the plate, with good raw power and the potential to hit for a good average.  Out of the top three prep catchers, the other two being Reese McGuire and Nick Ciuffo, Denney has the most struggles on defense.  He has an average to slightly above average arm behind the plate, but has troubles with receiving.  If he improves on his catching ability, his offense gives him All-Star potential.

23) Eric Jagielo--3B--L/R--6'3--215--CJr
Jagielo has a polished bat that has led to a .388 average so far this season, but his swing can get a little long at times.  He makes consistent solid contact which also leads to good power, but doesn't have the same level of ability as Bryant or Moran, and is not quite with Peterson, although he isn't far behind.  He has a chance to stay at third, where he will be average defensively.

24) Rob Kaminsky--LHP--6'0--188--HS
Another high upside high school lefty, Kaminsky brings a fastball that is 92-95 that could end up a plus pitch.  To pair with his fastball, Kaminsky throws a curve that could also end up as a plus pitch.  He doesn't have the ideal body that scouts love to see, but he has a lot of arm speed and he displays command that should be at least average down the road.

25) Billy McKinney--OF--L/L--6'1--195
McKinney has one of the highest upsides of any hitter in this year's draft, with the chance to hit for both average and power.  He has a long swing, which could lead to strikeouts in the future, but he has strong hands and good hip rotation that will lead to power.  He's not much of a defender, with below average speed and not much of an arm, so he will be limited to left field for now.

26) Ian Clarkin--LHP--6'2--190--HS
Yet another high upside high school lefty, Clarkin has a fastball that he throws up to 92-93, with the chance to add a little velocity in the future.  He adds a power curve that could end up as an above average or even plus pitch, along with an average change.  He could be a middle of the rotation starter, with an outside chance of being a number two guy, but needs to improve on his command to get there.

27) Phil Bickford--RHP--6'4--200--HS
Bickford has really been shooting up a lot of draft boards recently, with some very impressive starts in his last few outings, including a 17 strikeout performance.  He throws a fastball that can reach the mid to upper 90's with good sink, and the chance to even throw a little harder.  However, he doesn't have anything special beyond that fastball, with his slider and change grading as average pitches.  If he wants to be more than a power fastball kind of pitcher, then he will need to vastly improve his breaking stuff.

28) Hunter Dozier--SS/IF--R/R--6'4--220--CJr
Dozier is a big guy who has very little chance to stay at short as a pro, but he has the arm and range to translate over to third base, and should be at least average there.  His real value comes with his bat, as he has been one of the best performers in the NCAA this year.  He could provide above average power with a decent average to go along with that.

29) Alex Gonzalez--RHP--6'3--200--CJr
He possesses no plus pitches, but is average to above average across the board with good control and good strikeout numbers.  His fastball sits at 91-94 MPH with good movement, along with a slider/cutter pitch that comes in anywhere from 84-90 MPH.  He doesn't have a very high upside, but he has a very high floor, and won't take too long to make the majors, and could be selected in the middle of the first round.

30) Austin Wilson--OF--R/R--6'5--245--CJr
Wilson is a big, strong player who has a good deal of upside, but is far from a safe bet.  He put up less than impressive numbers this year, especially for a player with his talent.  With his size, he has a lot of raw power, but after suffering from injuries this year, he struggled to get on track offensively.  Despite his lack of performance this year, his athleticism should draw teams attention, as he could hit for above average power with decent defense in a corner outfield spot.

31) Aaron Judge--OF--R/R--6'7--255--CJr
Judge is possibly the biggest guy in the draft, from a pure size standpoint.  At 6 feet, 7 inches tall, Judge has huge raw power, which hasn't really shown up much in games until this season.  He will probably endure some higher strikeout totals as a pro, but his power should make it at least somewhat acceptable.  He is athletic and should be at least an average defender in a corner outfield spot, with an above average arm and decent range.

32) Kyle Serrano--RHP--6'0--185--HS
Serrano has the potential for two plus off speed pitches with his curve and change, with his curve being the better of the two pitches.  He will sit 90-94 with his fastball, but doesn't have much projection to add more velocity in the future.  He has at least number two starter upside, but is a very tough sign due to a commitment to Tennessee, where his father is the head baseball coach.

33) Devin Williams--RHP--6'3--172--HS
Williams has a projectable body with a good chance to add velocity as he matures, though he already throws with good velocity, sitting in the low 90's and hitting 93-94.  He mixes in a change, which is his best off-speed pitch, along with a slider that has been improving.  Williams is very raw at this point, so it is difficult to determine his ultimate upside.  He could be a hard throwing righty with two good off-speed pitches, but could take four or five years to develop.

34) Carlos Salazar--RHP--6'0--200--HS
No one really has Salazar rated as highly as I do, or else I may have even rated him higher than this.  Salazar possesses great arm strength that allows him to hit 97 on the gun, making his fastball a potential plus pitch.  He also shows a good slurvy pitch that has great break to it, which also has the potential to be a plus pitch.  He has a feel for a change as well, and I'd say that pitch has the chance to be above average.  With that total package, Salazar is a high upside player that could work out of the first couple spots in a major league rotation, but he is committed to his hometown Fresno State, so could be a tough sign if he doesn't go high in the draft.

35) Tim Anderson--SS--R/R--6'1--180--Junior College
Most people have Anderson higher than I do, due to his athleticism and the strong probability of him staying at shortstop.  He has plus speed with the ability to hit for average and doubles power, but not much home run power.  If he can't stay at shortstop, he has the athletic ability to play centerfield, much like the move that Reds' prospect Billy Hamilton made.  I have him rated this low because of the fact he plays in Junior College, and the competition is nowhere near as good as the NCAA, but the tools are there.

36) Andrew Thurman--RHP--6'3--205--CJr
There isn't much upside with Thurman, but he has very good command and control of his pitches, making him pretty polished coming out of college.  He will sit 90-93 with his fastball, along a change that could be a plus pitch in the future.  He is a safe pick with number three or four starter upside, as well as a high floor.

37) Travis Demerritte--SS/3B--R/R--6'1--195--HS

Demerritte played a lot of shortstop in high school, but he will no doubt end up a third baseman as a pro player.  He has great bat speed that gives him the potential to hit for plus power that will profile well at third base.  He may not hit for a high average, but the power could make up for that.  He has an athletic body as well, and his arm should work well at the hot corner.

38) Dustin Peterson--SS--R/R--6'2--185--HS

The younger brother of D.J. Peterson (#9 on this list), Dustin Peterson is another high school shortstop that will probably end up playing another position, and in his case it will most likely be second base.  He has an average arm and range, which profile better at second than they do at third.  Peterson's main asset is his bat, which has good power due to good hip rotation, and could produce 20+ homers as a pro.  His short swing and good bat speed also generate solid contact consistently, and that could allow him to hit for a good average as well.  

39) Josh Hart--OF--L/L--5'11--172--HS

Hart is a great athlete who could have plus speed that should give him good range in center, along with a good glove.  He will be a threat on the base paths with his speed, displaying a good ability to swipe bases in high school.  He will never hit for power, but may put up a decent average.  His value will be with his speed and defense, and he really reminds me of Michael Bourn.

40) Phil Ervin--OF--R/R--5'11--190--CJr

Ervin is high on a lot of peoples' boards, but he isn't really spectacular as a hitter.  He won the Cape Cod summer league's MVP award, after being a great power-speed player.  He has plus speed, which should allow him to have a chance in center, but some see him as a future left fielder.  He will get some loft on the ball with his swing, but there really isn't much power projection in his body.  He doesn't have much of an upside as a hitter, but could be a decent power-speed player.  

41) Cody Reed--LHP--6'5--220--JC

When he was in high school, Reed wasn't much of a prospect, as he was hitting only 84 MPH on the radar with a fringy slider.  In his first two seasons at JuCo, he has increased his velocity drastically, now hitting as high as 94.  He has also improved his slider, and has shown the ability to command his pitches, as well as miss bats with them.  If he continues these improvements, Reed has a high upside.

42) Ryan Boldt--OF--L/R--6'1--190--HS

Boldt probably won't have any plus tools as a pro, but he could be above average with multiple tools.  He is a very raw player that will take a long time to develop, but he has the ability to hit for a good average while playing a good centerfield.  Boldt doesn't have much power projection in his swing or his body frame, but his batting average and defense in center can make up for that.

43) Jonathan Crawford--RHP--6'1--205--CJr

Crawford was higher on a lot of draft boards coming into the season, with the potential for a plus fastball and plus slider, but didn't have the junior season that many thought he would have.  He still has a fastball that touches 96 and a hard slider, but his change doesn't have enough separation in velocity with his fastball.  He also struggles a little with his control and command, and didn't miss many bats this spring.  He has a higher upside than most college pitchers this low, but he will need to refine his command and changeup if he wants to reach his number two starter ceiling.

44) Jacob Brentz--LHP--6'2--195--HS

Brentz has a plus fastball that has hit the upper 90's this year, and that was sitting in the 91-95 range during a showcase in April.  He also has the chance to have an above average changeup, but is basically a one pitch guy at this point, with his curveball being at best an average pitch.  He has good command, but will be a project who needs to develop his offspeed pitches in order to reach his 2-3 starter upside.

45) Robert Tyler--RHP--6'3--196--HS

I have Tyler ranked higher than others do, as he has a projectable body with a fastball that can already reach 94 MPH with good movement.  He has a hard curve that has been inconsistent, but also that has the chance to be a plus pitch in the future.  He also throws an average change, along with a slider that he should probably get rid of.  He has the potential of a number two starter if his curve reaches its potential, but he is a big project who will need to work on his mechanics.

46) Trevor Williams--RHP--6'3--228--CJr

Williams is average to above average with his three pitch mix, which includes a fastball, slider, and change.  His fastball will sit at 90-94 MPH, but his best pitch is his change, which is a plus pitch at times.  His slider doesn't have much of an upside, but with a good fastball and potential plus change, Williams could be a good middle to back of the rotation starter in the majors.

47) Garrett Williams--LHP--6'3--185--HS

Williams is a projectable lefty who has already hit 94, but he will mostly sit in the 88-92 range at this point.  His curve comes in at 77-78 MPH, and it could also end up as an above average pitch.  He has a questionable delivery right now, one that doesn't use much of his lower half.  If he improved his delivery, Williams could really ramp up his fastball, making it a plus pitch in the future.

48) Connor Jones--RHP--6'1--190--HS

Jones has a three pitch mix that has nothing that stands out as a plus pitch, with a fastball that reaches 93 with good sinking movement.  His slider has good late break on it, but it probably won't be more than slightly above average in the future, with his change being a strictly average pitch.  He has good control and good pitchability, making him more polished than most high school pitchers.

49) Cavan Biggio--3B--L/R--6'2--180--HS

Son of the Astro great Craig Biggio, Cavan is a good natural hitter with a chance to add more power in the future as he fills out more.  He is currently listed as a third baseman, but he has played other positions, including second base and outfield.  He projects best as a second baseman with a below average arm, but his offense should make up for any defensive struggles at second.  He has made consistent hard contact against strong competition, keeping the Biggio hitting genes in the family.

50) Rowdy Tellez--1B--L/L--6'4--220--HS

Tellez is a big high school first baseman who has one of the top high school bats in the draft.  He has power to all fields, with potential plus plus power to the right field as a lefty hitter.  He also could hit for a good average to go along with that power, making him a major threat at the plate.  Tellez handles first base well and will be able to focus on his hitting as he develops.  He will be a project, but he has the ability to hit 30+ homers with some of the best raw power in the draft.

25 MORE PLAYERS TO KNOW

Ryan Eades--RHP--6'3--193--CJr

Aaron Blair--RHP--6'4--220--CJr

Andrew Mitchell--RHP--6'3--220--CJr

Blake Taylor--LHP--6'3--220--HS

Will Crowe--RHP--6'3--225--HS

Jason Hursh--RHP--6'3--195--College Sophemore

Michael Lorenzen--RHP--6'3--195--CJr

Bobby Wahl--RHP--6'3--200--CJr

Tom Windle--LHP--6'4--215--CJr

Kevin Ziomek--LHP--6'3--200--CJr

Oscar Mercado--SS--R/R--6'2--175--HS

Dylan Covey--RHP--6'2--205--CJr

Alex Balog--RHP--6'6--225--CJr

Corey Knebel--RHP--6'3--210--CJr

Chad Pinder--3B--R/R--6'2--192--CJr

Chris Okey--C--R/R--6'0--179--HS

Colby Suggs--RHP--6'0--225--CJr

Cord Sandberg--OF/1B--L/L--6'2--215--HS

Stephen Tarpley--LHP--6'2--200--JC

Jared King--OF--S/L--6'1--200--CJr

Brian Ragira--1B/OF--R/R--6'2--200--CSr

Zack Collins--C--L/R--6'3--220--HS

Justin Williams--OF--L/R--6'3--215--HS

A.J. Vanegas--RHP--6'3--215--CJr

Hunter Green--LHP--6'2--200--HS

FIRST ROUND ORDER WITH SLOT VALUE

1) Houston Astros--$7,790,400

2) Chicago Cubs--$6,708,400

3) Colorado Rockies--$5,626,400

4) Minnesota Twins--$4,544,400

5) Cleveland Indians--$3,787,000

6) Miami Marlins--$3,516,500

7) Boston Red Sox--$3,246,000

8) Kansas City Royals--$3,137,800

9) Pittsburgh Pirates--$3,029,600

10) Toronto Blue Jays--$2,921,400

11) New York Mets--$2,840,300

12) Seattle Mariners--$2,759,100

13) San Diego Padres--$2,678,000

14) Pittsburgh Pirates--$2,569,800

15) Arizona Diamondbacks--$2,434,500

16) Philadelphia Phillies--$2,299,300

17) Chicago White Sox--$2,164,000

18) Los Angeles Dodgers--$2,109,900

19) St. Louis Cardinals--$2,055,800

20) Detroit Tigers--$2,001,700

21) Tampa Bay Rays--$1,974,700

22) Baltimore Orioles--$1,947,600

23) Texas Rangers--$1,920,600

24) Oakland Athletics--$1,893,500

25) San Francisco Giants--$1,866,500

26) New York Yankees--$1,839,400

27) Cincinnati Reds--$1,812,400

28) St. Louis Cardinals--$1,785,300

29) Tampa Bay Rays--$1,758,300

30) Texas Rangers--$1,731,200

31) Atlanta Braves--$1,704,200

32) New York Yankees--$1,677,100

33) New York Yankees--$1,650,100

Well, there it is.  This has been my longest and most in depth project for this site, in terms of length and the amount of research and scouting I had to do to complete it.  I hope this is a helpful tool to anyone that is interested in the MLB draft this year.  If you would like me to expand on any of the players in the "25 more players to know" section, just ask in the comment section below.  If you want to know where I think a player will go in the actual draft or which player I think a team will take, you can also ask in the comment section.  I will be live tweeting the draft on Thursday, so you can follow me on twitter @mikemaw45 for any draft updates.  Thanks for reading, and let's get excited for the 2013 MLB draft!

Sorry for the Delay--Draft Board Coming Soon

It's been a really long time since I've posted, as I've been very busy lately.  I'm a senior in high school and I've had some final tests and projects that I've needed to work on, as well as releasing some music.  In the meantime, though, I have been working on scouting for this year's MLB Draft, and that has taken a very long time.  With this scouting, I have put together a draft board of my top 50 players, as well as the next best 25 players available.  I am currently doing write-ups on these players, and I will have that up in the next couple days, as the draft begins Thursday.  My school ends on Wednesday, but I don't have any more work to do for school so I will be able to start posting regularly now.  Sorry for the lack of work on the website, and thank you for being patient.  Bloggin Buccos will be up and running again in the next couple days, and hopefully we can expand the site a little with a podcast!  Thanks!

Also, if there is any ever topic, player, or prospect that you would like to talk about or have me write an article about, you can email me at mikemaw45@gmail.com or tweet me @mikemaw45.

Thanks for reading!

Pittsburgh Pirates Top 15 Prospects- May

We are a little over a month into the minor league season, and it is time for the May version of my top 15 prospects in the Pirates system.  As I just stated, we are only a month into the season, so performance shouldn't be a big factor in these rankings, but it cannot be ignored.  Some players are going to be over-performing, some will be under-performing, and some will be meeting expectations.  Other players, like Justin Wilson and Bryan Morris, have graduated to the majors, while prospects like Gerrit Cole, Jordy Mercer, and Victor Black have taken a lot of steps forward to becoming full time major leaguers.  With that being said, let's take a look at my May version of the top 15 prospects in the Pirates system.

2013 preview rankings in parenthesis

1) Gerrit Cole--RHP--22--AAA (1)
Cole has a very good ERA this year at 2.23, but there have been concerns about his walk rate, which is currently at 4.7 BB/9, and his strikeout rate, which is at 6.4 K/9.  Still, Cole boasts the best arsenal of pitches in all of minor league baseball, and possesses good control, so those numbers will improve.  We should see Cole move up to Pittsburgh sometime in June.

2) Jameson Taillon--RHP--21--AA (2)
Taillon has put up good numbers across the board this year, with an ERA of 3.26, a 1.29 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, and a 3.0 BB/9.  With a plus fastball and plus curve, Taillon can improve on those numbers and should be up in Indianapolis at some point this season.  It is doubtful Taillon will see any time in Pittsburgh this year.

3) Luis Heredia--RHP--18--A (3)
Heredia has yet to pitch this year in games that count, as the Pirates have held him in extended spring training.  It is mid-May now, so we should see Heredia begin his career in low-A soon enough.  With a potential plus fastball, curve, and change, Heredia has an enormous upside.

4) Gregory Polanco--OF--21--A+ (4)
Polanco has had a pretty similar season so far as he did last year, with his strikeout and walk rates almost identical to what they were in 2012.  He's hitting the ball hard consistently, getting on base at a good rate, and is taking advantage when he is on base, with 13 steals to this point.  A potential 5-tool talent, he could move up to AA at some point this year.

5) Josh Bell--OF--20--A (6)
Bell missed most of the 2012 season with a knee injury, but he has shown that that hasn't really affected him so far.  He has put up a batting line of .291/.349/.515, with an OPS of .864, six home runs, and 34 RBI in 134 at bats.  Bell has potential plus power from both sides of the plate along with the ability to hit for a good average and get on base, but may stay in low-A for most, if not all, of the 2013 season.

6) Alen Hanson--SS--20--A+ (5)
Hanson broke into the top prospect scene after a great April last year, but has not gotten off to a similar hot start in 2012.  After 135 at bats, he has an OPS of .643, displaying none of the power that he showed last year.  He also has struggled at shortstop, starting the year with ten errors in his first ten games.  But, it is still early in the season and Hanson has plenty of time to pick up his game.  As the best shortstop prospect in the system, Pirates fans hope he picks it up very soon.

7) Tyler Glasnow--RHP--19--A (12)
Glasnow came into the year as one of my potential breakout prospects after a good 2012 season in rookie ball, and he has carried that performance into 2013.  He has an ERA of 1.80, 1.12 WHIP, and an 11.9 K/9 in 25 IP.  Those are great numbers, but he has struggled with his control so far, with a 6.1 BB/9.  If he can harness his control, he could be top prospect with a plus fastball and plus curve.

8) Nick Kingham--RHP--21--A+ (11)
Kingham has gotten off to a great start in 2013, with a 2.95 ERA in 39.2 IP.  The most impressive part of his season is his 6.71 K:BB ratio, showing great command and control of his pitches.  With a potential for three above average pitches, we could see Kingham move up to AA midway through the year.

9) Kyle McPherson--RHP--25--AAA (7)
McPherson battled for a spot in the major league rotation to begin the year, but is now battling injury and is currently on the AAA DL.  He has an upside of a number three starter, but at this point it is more likely he will be a number four or five starter.  He should get some time in the majors this year if he is healthy, and that could be in the rotation or out of the bullpen.

10) Barrett Barnes--OF--21--A (8)
Barnes is another player that has battled injuries for most of the season to this point, as he is also currently on the DL.  He didn't do much with the bat when he did play, but has the potential to be a good power/speed player who could hit 20-25 homers a year with 20-25 stolen bases.

11) Tony Sanchez--C--25--AAA (14)
The former first round pick looks like he is finally getting back into his offensive groove, with an OPS of .829 so far in AAA this year, albeit in 78 at bats.  The power has been there so far with a .449 slugging percentage, which has been a major concern over the past few years.  Defense has never been a problem for Sanchez, so his offense will dictate where he ends up in the future.

12) Stolmy Pimentel--RHP--23--AA (23)
Pimentel has been the best starting pitcher in the Pirates system in 2013, with an ERA of 1.99 in his first seven starts.  His ERA was 0.74 after his first six starts, but he allowed six runs in his seventh start.  His slider has been very effective this year, and his fastball has been clocked in the mid-high 90's at points, giving him a great two pitch mix.  His control hasn't been good, with a 4.6 BB/9, but he's not letting up a lot of hits and keeping his WHIP relatively low, at 1.25.  The Pirates may keep him in AA for more starts, as this will allow him to gain confidence.

13) Victor Black--RHP--25--AAA (19)
Black has emerged as the top relief prospect in the Pirates system, especially with Justin Wilson and Bryan Morris now seemingly full-time major leaguers.  Black has a 2.57 ERA in 21 IP, along with a fantastic 13.3 K/9 rate and 1.10 WHIP.  He has continued to struggle with his control with a 4.7 BB/9, but he is only allowing 5.1 H/9, so the walks won't hurt him as much.  With an upper 90's fastball and plus slider, Black could be a very good closer in the future.

14) Clay Holmes--RHP--20--A (9)
A major question coming into the year was Holmes' control, and he has really struggled with his control this year, with a 7.3 BB/9.  He's pairing that bad control with giving up a good amount of hits, with a 9.6 H/9, which has led to an inflated WHIP of 1.87.  He's also not striking anyone out, with a 4.9 K/9.  He has a good fastball and good slurve, so he will see improvement on those numbers as the season progresses.  If he can improve on his control and command, Holmes could be a number two or three starter in the future.

15) Jordy Mercer--SS--26--AAA (18)
In my opinion, if Barmes doesn't pick it up offensively over the next few weeks, Mercer should be getting the majority of starts at shortstop for the Pirates.  He is much better offensively than Barmes, and although Barmes is one of the top defensive shortstops in the majors, Mercer is a competent defender as well.  He was hitting for a line of .333/.404/.448 in 96 at bats at AAA before being called up, with an .852 OPS.  He recently had a two homer game against the Mets, displaying his above average power for a middle infielder.  With his offensive ability and defensive ability, he should have no problem handling a starting job in the majors.


Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.