2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects Preview

Pirates General Manager Neal Huntington has been through five years now, including five drafts and five international signing periods.  He began his tenure with one of the worst minor league systems in baseball, and now has one of the most talented systems in baseball.  However, all that talent and all the money spent has yielded very little at the major league level, as the Pirates' losing streak continues.  In fact, Phil Irwin's major league debut on April 14th, 2013 marks the first start for a pitcher taken in any of Huntington's five drafts.  Regardless, the Pirates do currently have one of the top systems in all of baseball, consistently being ranked in the top ten.  Pirates fans have been waiting for "the future" for a long time now, and it just hasn't seemed to come yet.  That being said, let's take a look at the future with my April version of the top 30 prospects in the Pittsburgh Pirates organization, along with potential breakout prospects, the top five prospects at each position, the top five closest to the MLB, and the 2017 projected lineup an rotation.

TOP 30 PROSPECTS

1) Gerrit Cole--RHP--22 years old--AAA
Pirates fans won't have to wait much longer for the 2011 number one overall draft pick to arrive in Pittsburgh.  Drawing comparisons to Justin Verlander, Cole has three plus pitches with his upper 90's fastball that has reached 101 MPH, a hard breaking upper 80's slider that has touched 92 MPH, and an upper 80's changeup with good fade.  He also mixes in a low 90's two seamer with great movement, and a low 80's slurve.  He may have the best arsenal in all of minor league baseball, and we can expect to see him in June or July.

2) Jameson Taillon--RHP--21--AA
Taillon impressed a lot of people with a very good start against Team USA while pitching for Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic.  Taillon has a plus fastball in the mid 90's along with a great curveball in the low 80's that can be his best pitch.  He also has a developing changeup and a good two seamer that he brought back in 2012.  Along with Cole, Taillon has the upside of a number one starter, and these two could combine to be one of the best pitching duos in the game.

3) Luis Heredia--RHP--18--A
Heredia had a great season in 2012 as a 17 year old facing mostly players who were drafted out of college.  He posted a 2.71 ERA in 66.1 IP, along with an impressive 1.10 WHIP.  He throws mostly in the 91-94 MPH range, but has reached the upper 90's in spring training last year.  He has the potential for a plus curve and plus changeup in the future, and his enormous upside has drawn him comparisons to Felix Hernandez.

4) Gregory Polanco--CF--21--A+
Polanco had a great breakout season in 2012, with a line of .325/.388/.522, with a .910 OPS, 16 home runs, and 40 stolen bases.  He is a true five-tool talent, making consistent hard contact and using his plus speed and arm to play great defense in center field.  Polanco is now one of the top prospects in baseball, and could improve his stock even more with a similar season in 2013.

5) Alen Hanson--SS--20--A+
Along with Polanco, Hanson had a breakout season in 2012.  He started off hot, hitting over .400 in April, then cooled off a bit, but still hit .309 with a .909 OPS, 16 home runs, and 35 stolen bases.  Hanson had hit decently in the past, so he wasn't as big of a surprise as Polanco.  The main question with Hanson is whether he will be able to stay at shortstop or not.  He has been very inconsistent defensively at the position, with 40 errors in 103 games in 2012 (along with 10 in 10 games this year).  The Pirates haven't had a good offensive shortstop for years, and Hanson could be that guy if he can stick at the position.

6) Josh Bell--OF--20--A
Signed for the biggest bonus out of the first round in draft history back in 2011, Bell was ranked as the #60 prospect by Baseball America.  However, after only 62 at bats in 2012, Bell went down for the rest of the season with a knee injury.  Bell is a switch hitter with potential plus power from both sides of the plate, and could end up a .300 hitter with around 30 homers a year one day.  He will go back to Low-A West Virginia, but should move up to High-A at some point this season.

7) Kyle McPherson--RHP--25--AAA
McPherson was one of two main competitors along with Jeff Locke for the Pirates' rotation coming into spring training, but struggled a little and was ultimately sent to AAA to begin the season.  McPherson experienced a great stint at the major league level at the end of the 2012 season, putting up a 2.73 ERA in 26.1 IP, along with three starts.  McPherson's calling card is his control, with a 1.6 BB/9 in parts of seven seasons in the minors.  He also has a good three pitch mix, with a solid changup and good curve, along with a fastball that sits 92-94 MPH.  McPherson could become a full time member of the Pirates rotation at some point in 2013.

8) Barrett Barnes--OF--21--A
Barnes was drafted in the Supplemental round of the 2012 draft, and therefore was the Pirates highest signed draft pick after first round pick Mark Appel decided to go back to college.  He has plus raw power and good speed, and could end up a 20 homer, 20 stolen base player in the future.  He has the ability to play center field, but with McCutchen and Marte on the team for many more years, Barnes will have to shift over to a corner outfield spot, but his bat should play well there.

9) Clay Holmes--RHP--20--A
Drafted in the ninth round of the 2011 draft, Holmes signed a very over-slot deal at $1.2 Million.  He lived up to that bonus last year with a 2.28 ERA in 59.1 IP at short-season State College last year.  He didn't allow many hits, with a 1.08 WHIP, but didn't strike out many (5.2 K/9) and walked a little too many (4.4 BB/9).  He has a fastball at 90-95 MPH and a slurvy breaking ball that can act as a plus pitch at times.  He also features a developing changeup, and could eventually become a number two or three starter in the majors.

10) Justin Wilson--LHP--25--MLB
Wilson will start the year in the major league bullpen, but has almost exclusively been a starter in the minor leagues, except for a couple bullpen stints at the end of the last two seasons.  He has great stuff, which is evidenced by his 9.2 K/9 and 6.0 H/9 last year in 135.2 IP at AAA, but has always had control and command issues, which is shown by his career 4.5 BB/9 in the minors.  He throws a fastball 92-96 MPH out of the rotation, and can hit the upper 90's when he's in the bullpen.  He has the ability to be a decent major league starter in the future, but will most likely remain in the bullpen as a late innings reliever.

11) Nick Kingham--RHP--21--A+
Kingham was a fourth round pick in 2010, and had a fantastic first year in Short season A-ball in 2011, with a 2.15 ERA in 71 IP.  He really struggled with his first five starts in his jump to full season ball in 2012, but bounced back with a solid final few months that lowered his ERA to 4.39.  An encouraging sign was that his K/9 rose to 8.3 in 2012, up from 6.0 in 2011, along with continued good control.  He has a fastball that can reach the mid 90's, but sits 90-93.  His curveball and changeup also have the chances to be above average pitches.  He has a workhorse body at 6'5, 220 pounds, and could be a solid number three starter.

12) Tyler Glasnow--RHP--19--A
Glasnow shot up eight inches to 6'7 during his high school career, which led to the Pirates drafting him as another projectable pitcher who has the chance to add velocity in the future.  The future came pretty soon for Glasnow, who now has the ability to pitch in the mid 90's, and has reportedly hit 98 MPH.  He matches that fastball with a plus curveball with good late break, a good two-seamer, and a developing changeup.  Control has been a problem for him in the past, but if he learns to command his pitches and continues to develop, he has the upside of a good number two starter.

13) Alex Dickerson--1B--23--AA
Dickerson is a bat-first first baseman who has above average power, although the power hasn't shown up as much as the Pirates would like it too.  Dickerson hit 13 home runs in 488 at bats last year, along with a .295 average and an OPS of .803.  It was a down hitting year in the Florida State League, as those numbers allowed him to win the league's Player of the Year.  His bat will dictate if he ends up in the majors, and if everything goes right he could be a .280 hitter with 25-30 homers a year in the majors.

14) Tony Sanchez--C--25--AAA
Sanchez has been one of the most disappointing prospects in the Pirates organization, as he was once the #46 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America.  That was before 2011, when he began his two straight seasons of disappointing offense.  His power was way down in 2011 with a .318 Slugging percentage at AA, but picked it up a bit in 2012 with a .408 slugging percentage at AAA.  He is an above average defender, which will allow him to reach the majors at some point, but unless he rediscovers his ability to hit, he will be nothing more than a backup at the major league level.  He is currently the number three catcher on the Pirates depth chart.

15) Dilson Herrera--2B--19--A
Herrera has the chance to be this year's Alen Hanson, as he has all the tools to be a breakout prospect, and had success offensively in Rookie-ball.  Herrera put up some impressive numbers in the rookie level Gulf Coast League last year, with a line of .281/.341/.482, along with seven home runs, 11 stolen bases, and an .823 OPS in 227 at bats.  He should be at least average defensively at second base as he progresses, but it will be his bat that could allow him to be one of the top prospects in the Pirates systems.

16) Bryan Morris--RHP--26--AAA
The only remaining player from the Jason Bay trade back in 2008, Morris has had a very up and down career.  He was drafted in the first round as a starter, got inured, got traded, struggled, did great, did ok, got moved to the bullpen, did great, and is now stuck at AAA.  Morris is a great bullpen arm, with a mid 90's fastball and a great curveball.  He should be up with the Pirates now, but was granted a fourth option and is currently at AAA, which he has outgrown.

17) Wyatt Mathison--C--19--A
Mathison was drafted as a catcher, but played mostly shortstop in high school due to his athleticism.  He still has a chance to be a good defender behind the plate, as well as an above average hitter as well.  He was rated by Baseball America as the top high school catching prospect in the 2012 draft, and the Pirates were able to get him in the second round.  He has a good arm, throwing out 36 percent of potential base stealers in 2012 in the GCL.  He has the chance to develop at least average power in the future and could post a solid average as well.

18) Jordy Mercer--SS--26--AAA
There was a big question that surrounded Mercer last year: "Where is he?".  This was because the Pirates had called Mercer up, but rarely played him, despite his offensive success in the minors and the fact that Clint  Barmes had an OPS below .600.  Mercer is solid defensively at short, and has the ability to be an above average offensive player at the position.  He won't hit for a high average, but with a full season of work at the majors he could post about a .260-.265 average with around 15 home runs.

19) Victor Black--RHP--25--AAA
Black was drafted in the supplemental first round of the 2009 draft, but didn't live up to his hype until last season.  In 2012, he posted a 1.65 ERA in 60 IP, with a 12.8 K/9 and 1.15 WHIP.  Control has been a problem in his career, and that continued in 2012, with a 4.4 BB/9.  Black has a plus fastball that sits 96-98 MPH, touching 99, and pairs that with a plus slider.  If he can improve his control a little, he could be a future option for closer with the Pirates, and that future may not be far away.

20) Jose Osuna--1B--20--A+
Osuna opened some eyes with his performance in the rookie level Gulf Coast League in 2011, with a batting line of .331/.400/.511 in 178 at bats, with four homers and a .911 OPS.  He followed that up in 2012 with a line of .280/.324/.454  in 482 at bats, with 16 homers and a .779 OPS.  Osuna is a bat-first first baseman, so his offensive production will determine how far he goes.  He has the chance to hit for good power in the future along with a solid average, and he is only 20 years old so there is ample time for his bat to develop.

21) Willy Garcia--OF--20--A+
Garcia was in a similar position as Gregory Polanco heading into 2012, a player who has the chance to be a five-tool talent, but hadn't yet put it all together.  Garcia didn't have the same breakout season that Polanco had, but some positives can be pulled from his performance.  In his first full season, Garcia led the minor league system with 18 home runs, and he did this at only 19 years old.  However, he struggled with pitch recognition, which led to a 28.5 strikeout rate, which he will need to improve in the future in order to advance in the system.  He has some impressive pop, and he has the potential to be this year's breakout prospect.

22) Matt Curry--1B--24--AA
Curry is another bat-first first baseman in the Pirates system, but at this point his offensive potential is behind those of Dickerson and Osuna.  Curry has spent the majority of 2011 and 2012 in AA, putting up OPS's of .694 and .832, respectively.  He will return there to begin 2013 because he is being blocked by Matt Hague and Jerry Sands at the AAA.  He will also share time at first with Dickerson, though Dickerson will get plenty of time in the outfield as well.  Curry could be a .280 hitter with around 15-20 homers in the majors one day, but will most likely end up as a bench option.

23) Stolmy Pimentel--RHP--23--AA
Pimentel came to the Pirates in the Joel Hanrahan trade, after struggling at the AA level in 166 IP at the level between 2011 and 2012, posting a 5.96 ERA.  Pimentel picked it up a little in 2012 with a 4.59 ERA, and the potential is still there for him.  He has the ability to pitch in the mid to upper 90's, but is more effective when he throws 91-94 with his two seamer.  He has a slider that can also work as a cutter, along with a good changeup.  Pimentel has started out very well in 2013 at AA, with zero earned runs in his first two starts.  If things go right for Pimentel, he could end up as a number three starter in the future.

24) Ivan De Jesus--2B/SS--26--AAA
De Jesus was another part of the Joel Hanrahan trade, and was basically a trade-off for Brock Holt.  De Jesus has good contact ability, but like Holt, he doesn't have much power.  Including this year, De Jesus has a .302 career average in parts of four seasons at the AAA, with an OPS of .770.  He will play mostly second base for the AAA Indians this year, where he may be better suited in the future.  But, with Neil Walker presumably with the club for many more years, the only chance De Jesus will get at the major league level is at shortstop.

25) Max Moroff--SS--20--A
Moroff was drafted in the 16th round of the 2012 draft, but is talented enough to be drafted higher.  The Pirates were able to sign him because of the fact that the team couldn't sign first rounder Mark Appel.  Moroff has the potential to be a two-way player in the future, a solid defensive shortstop who can hit as well.  He has an advanced bat for his age, and has displayed great plate patience in the past and the beginning of the 2013 season.  He has the chance to be a big breakout player in 2013, and the Pirates could definitely use another good, young shortstop prospect.

26) Phil Irwin--RHP--26--AAA
Irwin wasn't much of a prospect until 2012, where he proved that he could have success against upper level hitters.  Last year he had a 2.83 ERA in 130.1 IP across A+, AA, and AAA, with most of his time coming at the AA level.  He's displayed great control in his minor league career with a 1.6 BB/9, along with good strikeout numbers at a 8.0 K/9 rate.  He doesn't have much of a fastball, but he has a very interesting curveball which can easliy be a plus pitch.  He also has a sinker that he relies on early in the count.  He will start the year at the AAA, but has already made a spot start in the majors and is definitely an option to make more spot starts in the future.  If he continues his upper level success, he could be a number five starter in the majors.

27) Jin-De Jhang--C--20--A-
Jhang was signed out of Taiwan in 2011 for a $250,000 signing bonus, and a major reason for that bonus was Jhang's intriguing bat.  He makes consistent hard contact, lines balls to the gap, and walks a good amount while not striking out much at all.  Also, he has a strong arm, throwing out 29% of base runners last year in the GCL.  He's built big, at 5'11", 200 pounds, but if he can maintain his conditioning he will have the chance to be a good two-way catcher in the future.  He should battle with Wyatt Mathison for playing time at catcher for the next few years.

28) Adrian Sampson--RHP--21--A+
Sampson was drafted in the fifth round of the 2012 draft, and had immediate success with the short season State College Spikes.  He put up a 2.95 ERA in 42.2 innings, working mostly off of his strong fastball-curveball combo.  He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, and can reach 94 MPH during his outings.  His curve breaks late and sharply, making it difficult for hitters to recognize the pitch.  He began working on a changeup last season because he didn't have much need for the pitch in the past.  He skipped over Low-A to start the season, so the Pirates must think a lot of him, and he should be a good pitcher to watch in Bradenton this season.

29) Stetson Allie--1B--22--A
Allie wasn't originally going to be on this list, but after such a strong start at the plate, I couldn't resist.  Allie was drafted as a pitcher, but spent most of his time in high school as a power hitting third baseman.  After his pitching career didn't pan out as expected, the Pirates decided to move Allie back to being a hitter, where he had the chance to be a third-fifth round draft pick.  He may have the best raw power in the system, and the West Virginia Power manager went as far to say it was an 80 on the 20-80 scale.  Allie has gotten off to an amazing start this year, with a line of .407/.478/.780, with six home runs, 18 RBI, and an OPS of 1.258 in 59 at bats.  A big problem with Allie is his plate patience, and that has continued into this year, with a 25.4% strikeout rate so far.  But, he is drawing more walks and four of his fifteen strikeouts came in his first game.  If he can continue hitting for power and improve his plate patience, he could be a great prospect.

30) Adalberto Santos--UTLY--25--AA
Not a lot of people see Santos as a legitimate prospect, but you can't ignore the fact that the lowest average he has posted in a season is .314 at A+ in 2011.  So far in 262 AA at bats, Santos has a .347 average, along with an .886 OPS.  He doesn't hit for any power, but he gets on base at a great rate, and doesn't strike out much.  He's played mostly outfield in his career, but was drafted as a second baseman and has played exclusively at third so far in 2013.  He doesn't have much of a chance to start in the majors in the future, but could be a great utility player who hits for a high average with a great OBP.


10 POTENTIAL BREAKOUT PROSPECTS
Ten players who could take the next step and arrive in the team's top 10 prospects very soon.
-Tyler Glasnow
-Dilson Herrera
-Wyatt Mathison
-Jose Osuna
-Willy Garcia
-Max Moroff
-Jin-De Jhang
-Stetson Allie
-Harold Ramirez
-Eric Wood

TOP 5 PROSPECTS AT EACH POSITION
RHP
1-Gerrit Cole
2-Jameson Taillon4-
3-Luis Heredia
4-Kyle McPherson
5-Clay Holmes

LHP
1-Justin Wilson
2-Andrew Oliver
3-Zack Dodson
4-Orlando Castro
5-Joely Rodriguez

Catcher
1-Tony Sanchez
2-Wyatt Mathison
3-Jin-De Jhang
4-Jacob Stallings
5-Carlos Paulino

First Base
1-Alex Dickerson
2-Jose Osuna
3-Matt Curry
4-Stetson Allie
5-Matt Hague

Second Base
1-Dilson Herrera
2-Ivan De Jesus Jr
3-Jarek Cunningham
4-Dan Gamache
5-Kevin Ross

Third Base
1-Eric Wood
2-Eric Avila
3-Yhonathan Barrios
4-Edwin Espinal
5-D.J. Crumlich

Shortstop
1-Alen Hanson
2-Jordy Mercer
3-Max Moroff
4-Gift Ngoepe
5-Drew Maggi

Outfield
1-Gregory Polanco
2-Josh Bell
3-Barrett Barnes
4-Willy Garcia
5-Adalberto Santos
6-Mel Rojas Jr
7-Harold Ramirez
8-Elvis Escobar
9-Luis Urena
10-Raul Fortunato

5 CLOSEST TO THE MAJORS
-Gerrit Cole
-Kyle McPherson
-Justin Wilson
-Bryan Morris
-Jordy Mercer

2017 PROJECTED LINEUP/ROTATION

LINEUP
1) Alen Hanson-SS
2) Starling Marte-LF
3) Andrew McCutchen-CF
4) Pedro Alvarez-3B
5) Gregory Polanco-RF
6) Neil Walker-2B
7) Alex Dickerson-1B
8) Tony Sanchez-C

Notes: This is made from players that are already in the organization, but it's almost certain some of these positions will be filled by players not in the organization now.   The Pirates could have a very fast lineup, with Hanson, Marte, McCutchen, and Polanco all possessing plus speed.  2017 will likely be Alvarez's last year with a team, as he is a free agent after the year and a Scott Boras client, and his players rarely stay with their teams when they hit free agency.  Neil Walker should have an extension by this point, and hopefully Marte will as well.  I still like Sanchez as a prospect, so I think he edges out Wyatt Mathison for this spot.  I also really like Travis Snider, but I also believe Polanco has more upside at this point.

ROTATION
1- Gerrit Cole
2- Jameson Taillon
3- Luis Heredia
4- Kyle McPherson
5- Nick Kingham
Closer- Bryan Morris

Notes: The Pirates have the potential for three top of the rotation starters here, with Cole, Taillon, and Heredia.  McPherson has the chance to be one of the better number four starters in the league if he reaches his potential.  Kingham wasn't in my top five pitching prospects, but I think he has the safest bet to be in the rotation after McPherson.  There are a few other options at closer, including Justin Wilson, Victor Black, and Duke Welker, but with Morris' fastball-curve combo, he could be a great closer.  There are some options in the current bullpen, but it is rare for the Pirates to keep their relievers for an extended period of time.


There is always a disclaimer with prospects, as it is always difficult for them to reach their potential.  But, the Pirates have a lot of talent at the top of their system, and a lot of players below that who have the talent to become stars.  Only time will tell for the Pirates, but if you recall, time hasn't been friendly to the Pirates over the past twenty years.


Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.