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Sunday, March 31, 2013

My 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions

Well, the 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates season is almost upon us.  The team finished with the worst record in the Grapefruit League during spring training, and not a lot of people are feeling too optimistic about this upcoming season.  The team didn't bring in much outside help over the offseason, so a lot of fans are questioning how the team will improve from last year.  But, let's remember that the team will have a full season of Wandy Rodriguez and Starling Marte, along with improved play from the catching position, Neil Walker will hopefully be healthy for the full season, and top prospect Gerrit Cole should be up sometime in June.  So even though the team did not add much from outside, there is a lot internal talent that definitely has the chance to push the team over .500 in 2013.  That being said, who will perform this year?  Will anyone fall below expectations?  Will anyone exceed expectations?  Here are my personal predictions for the 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates.

Pitchers: (Record--ERA--Innings--Strike outs--WHIP--Saves)

A.J. Burnett:  13-9--3.88 ERA--203 IP--171 K's--1.29 WHIP--0 Saves
Jeanmar Gomez:  0-2--6.43 ERA--14 IP--6 K's--1.71 WHIP--0 saves
Jason Grilli:  2-6--3.26 ERA--61 IP--74 K's--1.21 WHIP--38 saves
Jared Hughes:  2-3--3.13 ERA--63 IP--44 K's--1.18 WHIP--2 saves
Phil Irwin:  1-1--4.47 ERA--21 IP--12 K's--1.41 WHIP--0 saves
Jeff Karstens:  5-5--4.01 ERA--87 IP--62 K's--1.23 WHIP--0 saves
Chris Leroux:  2-1--4.26 ERA--26 IP--24 K's--1.27 WHIP--0 saves
Francisco Liriano:  6-7--4.32 ERA--101 IP--92 K's--1.32 WHIP--0 saves
Jeff Locke:  8-7--4.12 ERA--146 IP--123 K's--1.22 WHIP--0 saves
James McDonald:  12-10--3.69 ERA--181 IP--165 K's--0 saves
Kyle McPherson:  4-5--4.24 ERA--48 IP--32 K's--1.18 WHIP--0 saves
Mark Melancon:  1-3--2.79 ERA--58 IP--60 K's--1.21 WHIP--4 saves
Bryan Morris: 1-1--3.37 ERA--34 IP--26 K's--1.18 WHIP--0 saves
Charlie Morton:  5-3--4.35 ERA--42 IP--32 K's--1.25 WHIP--0 saves
Wandy Rodriguez:  12-7--3.76 ERA--202 IP--139 K's--1.24 WHIP--0 saves
Jonathan Sanchez:  5-8--4.36 ERA--83 IP--68 K's--1.39 WHIP--0 saves
Tony Watson:  4-2--3.44 ERA--55 IP--50 K's--1.16 WHIP--0 saves
Justin Wilson:  4-2--3.02 ERA--65 IP--59 K's--1.11 WHIP--1 save
Gerrit Cole:  8-4--3.35 ERA--126 IP--124 K's--1.18 WHIP--0 saves

PITCHER OF THE YEAR:  James McDonald
BREAKOUT PITCHER OF THE YEAR:  Gerrit Cole
RELIEVER OF THE YEAR:  Jason Grilli

Hitters: (At bats--Average--Home Runs--RBI--SB--OPS)

Russell Martin:  411 AB--.237 avg--17 HR--54 RBI--1 SB--.724 OPS
Michael McKenry:  254 AB--.265 avg--11 HR--42 RBI--1 SB--.772 OPS
Tony Sanchez:  64 AB--.236 avg--1 HR--5 RBI--0 SB--.652 OPS
Pedro Alvarez:  558 AB--.268 avg--35 HR--96 RBI--1 SB--.852 OPS
Clint Barmes:  452 AB--.235 avg--12 HR--41 RBI--1 SB--.638 OPS
Josh Harrison:  183 AB--.264 avg--1 HR--18 RBI--5 SB--.655 OPS
Brandon Inge:  201 AB--.220 avg--3 HR--22 RBI--0 SB--.660 OPS
Garrett Jones:  475 AB--.270 avg--22 HR--73 RBI--3 SB--.769 OPS
John McDonald:  140 AB--.227 avg--2 HR--17 RBI--0 SB--.627 OPS
Jordy Mercer:  156 AB--.267 avg--5 HR--23 RBI--3 SB--.738 OPS
Gaby Sanchez:  342 AB--.274 avg--12 HR--46 RBI--1 SB--.745 OPS
Neil Walker:  568 AB--.287 avg--18 HR--82 RBI--7 SB--.808 OPS
Starling Marte:  586 AB--.302 avg--15 HR--76 RBI--28 SB--.827 OPS
Andrew McCutchen:  592 AB--.310 avg--30 HR--91 RBI--.911 OPS
Alex Presley:  136 AB--.270 avg--4 HR--20 RBI--.755 OPS
Jerry Sands:  140 AB--.252 avg--7 HR--22 RBI--.748 OPS
Travis Snider: 493 AB--.275 avg--19 HR--64 RBI--.762 OPS
Jose Tabata;  204 AB--.277 avg--3 HR--28 RBI--.737 OPS
Ivan De Jesus:  119 AB--.282 avg--1 HR--11 RBI--.709 OPS

HITTER OF THE YEAR:  Andrew McCutchen
BREAKOUT HITTER OF THE YEAR:  Pedro Alvarez
MOST VALUABLE BENCH PLAYER:  Gaby Sanchez

Whole team awards:

TEAM MVP:  Andrew McCutchen
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:  Gerrit Cole

Minor League Awards:

AAA
BEST HITTER:  Jerry Sands
BEST PITCHER:  Gerrit Cole
BREAKOUT PLAYER:  Tony Sanchez

AA
BEST HITTER:  Alex Dickerson
BEST PITCHER:  Jameson Taillon
BREAKOUT PLAYER:  Stolmy Pimentel

A+
BEST HITTER:  Gregory Polanco
BEST PITCHER:  Nick Kingham
BREAKOUT PLAYER:  Jose Osuna

A
BEST HITTER:  Josh Bell
BEST PITCHER:  Luis Heredia
BREAKOUT PLAYER:  Max Moroff

Whole system awards:
HITTER OF THE YEAR:  Gregory Polanco
PITCHER OF THE YEAR:  Jameson Taillon
BREAKOUT PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Jose Osuna


I'd love to hear all of your predictions!  Any predictions, questions, or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.


Tuesday, March 26, 2013

2013 Positional Preview: Second Base

Ever since he overtook Akinori Iwamura as the starting second baseman in 2010, there has been no question on who will be penciled in at the number 4 position on the Pirates opening day roster.  A fan favorite.  The Real Deal.  The Pittsburgh Kid.  Neil Walker.  Over the past three seasons, Walker has emerged as one of the best second baseman in the National League, both offensively and defensively.  In 2012, Walker put up a WAR of 2.5, a career best, with a line of .280/.342/.426 and an OPS of .768.  He also hit a career high 14 home runs, but saw his RBI production drop a little from 83 in 2011 to 69 in 2012.  He was limited to 129 games in 2012, and his numbers were brought down after battling injuries throughout August and September, where he hit a combined .235/.280/.357 with 3 HR's, 14 RBI and an OPS of .637.

Walker's injuries in August and most of September gave an opportunity for Brock Holt to get everyday playing time at the major league level.  After hitting .432 with a 1.013 OPS in 95 at bats in AAA, Holt was called up to help the major league team and found himself as the starting second baseman for the majority of September.  In total at the major league level, Holt had a line of .292/.329/.354 with an OPS of .682.  Holt has always dealt with a lack of power, and his calling card has always been a high average and a high on base percentage.  Regardless, none of those will be present in 2013 for the Pirates as Holt was traded to the Red Sox in the Joel Hanrahan deal over the offseason.

Now for 2013:

Starter: Neil Walker
Walker should be the Pirates starting second baseman for at least a few more years.  If his back holds up, Walker should have another solid season in 2013, with an average around .280-.290 with approximately 15 home runs.  He will do this while playing great defense at second and being a clubhouse leader that can really ignite the fire in his teammates.  With Walker, it is a pretty safe bet on what you're going to get production-wise, but the Pirates will still hope that Walker becomes the .300, 20 home run hitter that he has the outside chance of being.

Bench Options: John McDonald, Brandon Inge, Josh Harrison
The only player on this list that is guaranteed to be on the opening day roster is John McDonald, who was recently acquired from the Diamondbacks for a player to be named later or cash.  The 38 year old McDonald is not an offensive threat in any way, with a career OPS of .608, but he is considered one of the best defensive middle infielders in the game, at least as a bench option.  He plays mostly shortstop, but has also played second in his career.  Brandon Inge will have a roster spot, but at this point it remains to be seen if he will start on the DL or not after being hit by a pitch recently.  Inge used to be an average to slightly above average power hitter, but that attribute is long gone.  All he can really bring now is some veteran leadership and some versatility in the infield.  But, he has only appeared in six games at second, but all six came in 2012.  Josh Harrison could start the year on the 25 man roster if Inge starts on the DL, but should find himself in AAA when Inge returns.  Harrison has the most offensive upside of these players and can play decent defense at second, third, and short.  Personally, I would rather see Harrison than Inge, but that seems unlikely.

Minor League Players We Could See This Year: Ivan De Jesus Jr., Jordy Mercer, Chase D'arnaud
I could see either De Jesus Jr. or Mercer taking over every second base duties if Neil Walker goes down with an extended injury.  De Jesus was acquired in the Hanrahan deal from Boston, and is a similar player to Brock Holt.  He puts up a good average and gets on base at a good rate, but doesn't hit for much power.  He is now labeled a second baseman after a lengthy leg injury in 2009, but still has the ability to play shortstop, and has displayed good defensive instincts in the past.  Mercer is mainly a shortstop, but plays average defense at second.  His bat plays well at both second and short, with above average power for a middle infielder.  D'arnaud was viewed as one of the top prospects in the system prior to 2010, but has struggled offensively since then, especially when he got a chance at the major league level in 2011 (.528 OPS in 143 AB's).

The only real question facing the Pirates' second base situation is: How long will Neil Walker be in Pittsburgh?  A possible extension for Walker has been a hot topic since Jose Tabata received his extension back in 2011.  Walker definitely seems willing to spend his entire career in Pittsburgh, but not much progress has been made on an extension over the past year.  This could be because the front office is waiting to see if Walker's 2012 back injury lingers into 2013.  If it has no effect on his play, then we could an extension for Walker in the near future that could keep the Pittsburgh Kid in a buccos uniform for a long time.

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.

Saturday, March 23, 2013

2013 Positional Preview: First Base

Entering the offseason before the 2012 season, there existed a lot of questions about who would be the Pirates first baseman.  They finished the 2011 season with Derrek Lee as the everyday first baseman, but Lee chose not to play in 2012, despite the Pirates and a few other teams expressing interest in him.  There were a few free agent options out there, including Michael Cuddyer and Carlos Pena, but the Pirates made the decision that they were best fit going into 2012 with Garrett Jones as their first baseman.  This was a risky move at the time, as Jones had a history of struggles against left handed pitching and wasn't a particularly good defender at the position.  However, he brought the offensive upside to the position that the Pirates needed, with decent power numbers over the past few years and a .938 OPS in 358 at bats in 2009.    But, his OPS dropped to .720 in 2010 and .753 in 2011, so no one was sure what the Pirates were going to get from Jones in 2012.

The risk paid off for the Pirates in 2012, as Jones had the best year of his career, with a batting line of .274/.317/.516 with an OPS of .832 and 27 home runs.  Along with Andrew McCutchen (31 HR's) and Pedro Alvarez (30 HR's), Jones was part of one of the best power trios in recent Pirates memory.  Jones played below average defense, but helped to make up for that by posting the sixth best WAR on the team.  Overall, however, his WAR of 1.5 is not that impressive, as a WAR of 2 is generally the base for an average regular.  Still, with his OPS+ of 129, Jones was most likely at the highest value that he will ever be at, which caused a lot of trade speculation to surround him over the offseason.  It is easy to see why, as a big lefty who had an .888 OPS against righties in 2012 is not easy to come by.  He drew interest from teams, including the Mariners and Orioles, but ultimately the Pirates held on to Jones for the 2013 season.

Other players that spent time at first for the Pirates last year were Casey McGehee, Gaby Sanchez, and Matt Hague.  McGehee received a lot of playing time, but after posting a .674 OPS in 265 at bats, he was traded to the Yankees at the trade deadline.  One of the reasons the Pirates traded McGehee was because of their acquisition of Gaby Sanchez.  The Pirates acquired Sanchez the same day they traded McGehee, and gave up a decent amount for the former All-Star, with Gorkys Hernandez and the Pirates' 2013 supplemental pick going to the Marlins.  Sanchez will have to perform above the .720 OPS he posted for the Pirates last year to make fans more willing to part with the top 35 pick the team gave up to get Sanchez.  Hague made the opening day roster after an amazing spring, but did not perform at all with a .527 OPS in 70 at bats.

Now lets take a look at the 2013 outlook at first base.

Starter: Garrett Jones
The offensive numbers that Jones put up last year have given him the spot as the first baseman who will get the majority of the playing time to start the season.  The team hopes he can put up similar numbers to what he did last year, but looking at his past and factoring in that he is entering his age-32 season, that is far from a guarantee.  Jones is a safer bet to hit at least .250 with around 20 home runs, but his struggles against lefties still exist, which could prove to be problematic.  This will most likely open the door for Gaby Sanchez in a potential platoon role, where he should see a good amount of starts against lefty pitchers, whom Sanchez has a career .869 OPS against.  If Jones and Sanchez put up numbers close to their career numbers in their respective platoon roles, the Pirates could have a formidable duo at first with possibly a .275-.280 average and 25 home runs across an entire season.  But as we saw with the Garrett Jones-Matt Diaz platoon a couple years back, these situations don't always work out as you would hope.

Bench Options: Gaby Sanchez
The Pirates will generally have either Gaby Sanchez or Garrett Jones on the bench on any given day, unless Sanchez is at third or Jones is in right field.  Sanchez is a great player to have on your team's bench, as he is a former All-Star who has the potential to hit 15-20 homers with everyday playing time, but you would like to see him produce a lot of offense after giving up a draft pick for him.  Sanchez has had a good Spring Training so far, which could put him in the position to see a good deal of at bats once the regular season begins.  Regardless, Sanchez will be a great option to pinch hit against lefties, and Jones will be a great option against righties.

Minor League Players We Could See This Year: Clint Robinson, Matt Hague, Matt Curry
Clint Robinson has put up some impressive numbers in the minors throughout his career, with an OPS of .902 in six minor league seasons.  But because of certain players blocking him at the major league level with Kansas City, he hasn't gotten a chance to play in the majors.  He came to the Pirates over the offseason, and has the chance to be the next Garrett Jones if the opportunity presents itself.  By saying "the next Garrett Jones", I mean a player who has good minor league numbers but hasn't gotten a chance in the majors who goes on to hit well in the majors when finally given a chance.  Matt Hague is probably the fourth guy on the depth chart at this point, and he doesn't really provide much offensive or defensive upside, and he will be limited to bench duty if he gets a chance with the major league club.  Matt Curry is one of the top first base prospects in the upper levels (behind Alex Dickerson), and is rated the #23 prospect in the Pirates system, according to Baseball America.  He has the potential to be a .280 hitter with 15-20 homers in the majors one day, but won't get much if any of an opportunity in 2013 at the major league level.

First base has the potential to be a strength for the Pirates in 2013, if both Garrett Jones and Gaby Sanchez hit to their potential in their potential platoon roles.  But, if they don't hit up to their potential, a weakness will be created that will need to be addressed at either the trade deadline or in the next offseason, unless the team feels comfortable trusting Clint Robinson or Matt Curry to handle the first base duties.  Another topic to consider is that if the Pirates seem to be out of playoff contention around the trade deadline and Jones is hitting well, could Jones be traded?  If he puts up numbers like he did last year, he would be a great option for contenders and could bring a good return for the Pirates.  That is something that the Pirates explored this past offseason, and could be an interesting story to follow throughout the year.  But at this point, we can assume that the Pirates' first base production will be around .250-.260 with 20-25 home runs.  That's not bad, but the Pirates would love to see a platoon between Jones and Sanchez produce even more than what Jones gave the team in 2012.

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.