Why Pedro Alvarez Should Be Moved Up in the Order

Pedro Alvarez has not hit well at the major league level since the start of the 2011 season.  Actually, he’s done worse than “not hitting well”.  He’s been horrible.  I hate to say it, but that might even be too positive of a word to describe his hitting.  Regardless, there is no hiding that Pedro Alvarez has not come anywhere near the lofty expectations the organization and fanbase had for him after he had a somewhat successful rookie campaign in 2010.   In his career, he has a .224/.296/.386 line, good for a .683 OPS.  In 2011, his OPS+ was 56, and in after April 21, 2012, his OPS+ is 20.  League average is 100.  His WAR (Wins Above Replacement, which is an attempt by the sabermetric baseball community to summarize a player’s total contributions to their team in one statistic--explanation from FanGraphs) in 2011 was -1.4, meaning that Alvarez was worse than a replacement player.  To conclude all this, I would like to reiterate that Alvarez has been terrible.  That being said, the Pirates should definitely move Pedro up in the batting order.
I realize I just threw you readers a big curveball right there (so if you were Pedro, you probably would have struck out...), but it should be done.  Pedro Alvarez has the natural ability to be the best hitter in the lineup for the Pirates, even better than McCutchen.  That can’t be forgotten.  He easily has the best raw power on the team, and was able to hit for a decent average in the minors.  Obviously, none of that matters unless he translates that talent into real games against real major league pitchers.  In 2010, however, Pedro showed that he could hit pitchers at the highest level, and hit them well.  He had a line of .256/.326/.461, along with 16 home runs and 64 RBI in 347 at bats.  That year, his OPS+ was 112, meaning he was an above average hitter at the major league level at one point.  And at 25 years old, there is still a lot of time for him to regain that form.
In his career, Alvarez has hit in every spot in the order except for first and third.  He has spent most of his time batting either fifth, sixth or seventh.  Here are his stats in all three of his seasons at each of those three spots, then his career totals at those spots.

2010

Spot	AB	HITS	AVG	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS
5th	258	76	.295	15	56	27	77	.360	.547	.907
6th	46	7	.152	0	5	3	22	.200	.196	.396
7th	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---

2011

Spot	AB	HITS	AVG	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS
5th	87	13	.149	0	6	7	32	.213	.184	.397
6th	54	18	.333	2	6	4	15	.379	.519	.898
7th	84	12	.143	2	7	11	29	.258	.238	.496

2012

Spot	AB	HITS	AVG	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS
5th	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---
6th	7	2	.286	0	2	0	2	.286	.286	.571
7th	26	2	.077	2	2	1	13	.111	.308	.419

CAREER

Spot	AB	HITS	AVG	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS
5th	345	89	.258	15	62	34	109	.324	.455	.779
6th	107	27	.252	2	13	7	39	.296	.364	.660
7th	110	14	.127	4	9	12	42	.226	.255	.480

stats from baseballreference.com

As a rookie, Pedro spent the majority of his time in the fifth spot in the order, where he did a fantastic job, highlighted by a .295 average and .907 OPS.  In the sixth spot, he did not do nearly as well, with a .152 average and .396 OPS.  Pedro also hit 15 of his 16 home runs that year out of the fifth spot.

In 2011, Pedro struggled immensely out of the fifth and seventh spots in the order.  In the sixth spot, however, he did a very good job, with an OPS near .900 and a .333 average.  

In 2012, Alvarez has hit almost exclusively out of the 7th spot, where he has struggled more than ever.  He has hit in the sixth spot in the last two games, and hit there again on Sunday against the Cardinals.  Pedro had two RBI on Friday, batting sixth.

In his career, Pedro has batted fifth in 56% of his at bats.  In those at-bats, Alvarez has seen a good amount of success, with a good OPS and an average 34 points higher than his career number.  He has had some success out of the sixth spot as well, with the numbers at that spot also above his career numbers.  However, despite Pedro’s past successes in the fifth and sixth spot, manager Clint Hurdle has had Alvarez in the seventh spot for most of the season.
There are a few reasons why I hate seeing Pedro in the seventh spot.  First, he has never had success out of that spot.  A career .127 average shouldn’t really prompt you as a manager to continually bat Pedro in a spot where he is going to struggle.  Why not hit him where he’s had success before?  He really can’t hit much worse than he already has.
Another reason why he should be moved up in the order is that he has absolutely no protection behind him.  This means that when Pedro bats seventh, all he has behind him in the lineup is the eighth and ninth hitters, therefore the opposing pitchers can just pitch around Pedro to get to hitters that are less likely to do damage on offense.  They can throw him less hittable pitches because they don’t need to throw to him.  As a pitcher, I know I would much rather face Clint Barmes than Pedro Alvarez because Alvarez has the ability to hit any pitch out of the park, and Barmes does not have that talent.  Also, pitchers are even less obliged to throw to the seventh hitter with the pitcher only two spots behind.  The seventh spot in the order is not a good spot for a young player to hit, especially when they are struggling to the extent that Alvarez is.
The final point that I will say is simple: “Why Not”?  What is it going to hurt if we move the lineup around a little?  Coming into Sunday, I read somewhere that the Pirates are last in the league in runs scored with 29, and the second to last team has 42.  That’s a 13 run difference between us and the second worst offense in 14 games to this point.  We barely average over two runs a game.  I really don’t think that moving our potential best hitter is going to hurt the club in any way.  A lineup that Hurdle has been using a lot is 1. Presley 2. Tabata 3. McCutchen 4. Walker 5. Jones 6. Barajas 7. Alvarez 8. Barmes 9. Pitcher.  Tabata is batting .140, Walker is batting .239, and Barajas is batting .091.  Batting Tabata and Walker ahead of Alvarez is definitely understandable, but I cannot comprehend why Barajas has been put ahead of Pedro.  Pedro has more power and much better overall hitting ability, not to mention it was only one year ago that people thought of Pedro as the savior of the Pirates.  I can’t see any reasoning that would have it make sense to put him behind a career .236 hitter who is hitting .091 this year.  There can be no negative effect on moving Pedro up to sixth or even fifth, because the Pirates have had no real production out of these spots with others occupying them.  So, why not bat our best power hitter in either of those spots?  We can’t get any worse than what we already are. Yes, Pedro Alvarez has struggled for the Pirates in the last two seasons.  But, the Pirates have also struggled as a team in that same time.  Their offense was not good last year, finishing 27th in the MLB in runs scored and home runs.  Alvarez has the ability to produce runs in different ways, and has the power to lead the team in homers.  But, batting him in the lower third of the order will not bring out his potential, and will only cause him to continue to struggle and keep his confidence plummeting.  To help him and the team improve, it is imperative that you move Pedro to either the fifth or sixth spot in the order, where he has had success in the past.  The Pirates’ offense has been so bad to a point that moving around the batting lineup really can’t hurt the team’s run production, and can only have a positive effect.  Pedro could be the best hitter in our lineup, so why not give him a better chance to do that?