Entering the offseason before the 2012 season, there existed a lot of questions about who would be the Pirates first baseman. They finished the 2011 season with Derrek Lee as the everyday first baseman, but Lee chose not to play in 2012, despite the Pirates and a few other teams expressing interest in him. There were a few free agent options out there, including Michael Cuddyer and Carlos Pena, but the Pirates made the decision that they were best fit going into 2012 with Garrett Jones as their first baseman. This was a risky move at the time, as Jones had a history of struggles against left handed pitching and wasn't a particularly good defender at the position. However, he brought the offensive upside to the position that the Pirates needed, with decent power numbers over the past few years and a .938 OPS in 358 at bats in 2009. But, his OPS dropped to .720 in 2010 and .753 in 2011, so no one was sure what the Pirates were going to get from Jones in 2012.
The risk paid off for the Pirates in 2012, as Jones had the best year of his career, with a batting line of .274/.317/.516 with an OPS of .832 and 27 home runs. Along with Andrew McCutchen (31 HR's) and Pedro Alvarez (30 HR's), Jones was part of one of the best power trios in recent Pirates memory. Jones played below average defense, but helped to make up for that by posting the sixth best WAR on the team. Overall, however, his WAR of 1.5 is not that impressive, as a WAR of 2 is generally the base for an average regular. Still, with his OPS+ of 129, Jones was most likely at the highest value that he will ever be at, which caused a lot of trade speculation to surround him over the offseason. It is easy to see why, as a big lefty who had an .888 OPS against righties in 2012 is not easy to come by. He drew interest from teams, including the Mariners and Orioles, but ultimately the Pirates held on to Jones for the 2013 season.
Other players that spent time at first for the Pirates last year were Casey McGehee, Gaby Sanchez, and Matt Hague. McGehee received a lot of playing time, but after posting a .674 OPS in 265 at bats, he was traded to the Yankees at the trade deadline. One of the reasons the Pirates traded McGehee was because of their acquisition of Gaby Sanchez. The Pirates acquired Sanchez the same day they traded McGehee, and gave up a decent amount for the former All-Star, with Gorkys Hernandez and the Pirates' 2013 supplemental pick going to the Marlins. Sanchez will have to perform above the .720 OPS he posted for the Pirates last year to make fans more willing to part with the top 35 pick the team gave up to get Sanchez. Hague made the opening day roster after an amazing spring, but did not perform at all with a .527 OPS in 70 at bats.
Now lets take a look at the 2013 outlook at first base.
Starter: Garrett Jones
The offensive numbers that Jones put up last year have given him the spot as the first baseman who will get the majority of the playing time to start the season. The team hopes he can put up similar numbers to what he did last year, but looking at his past and factoring in that he is entering his age-32 season, that is far from a guarantee. Jones is a safer bet to hit at least .250 with around 20 home runs, but his struggles against lefties still exist, which could prove to be problematic. This will most likely open the door for Gaby Sanchez in a potential platoon role, where he should see a good amount of starts against lefty pitchers, whom Sanchez has a career .869 OPS against. If Jones and Sanchez put up numbers close to their career numbers in their respective platoon roles, the Pirates could have a formidable duo at first with possibly a .275-.280 average and 25 home runs across an entire season. But as we saw with the Garrett Jones-Matt Diaz platoon a couple years back, these situations don't always work out as you would hope.
Bench Options: Gaby Sanchez
The Pirates will generally have either Gaby Sanchez or Garrett Jones on the bench on any given day, unless Sanchez is at third or Jones is in right field. Sanchez is a great player to have on your team's bench, as he is a former All-Star who has the potential to hit 15-20 homers with everyday playing time, but you would like to see him produce a lot of offense after giving up a draft pick for him. Sanchez has had a good Spring Training so far, which could put him in the position to see a good deal of at bats once the regular season begins. Regardless, Sanchez will be a great option to pinch hit against lefties, and Jones will be a great option against righties.
Minor League Players We Could See This Year: Clint Robinson, Matt Hague, Matt Curry
Clint Robinson has put up some impressive numbers in the minors throughout his career, with an OPS of .902 in six minor league seasons. But because of certain players blocking him at the major league level with Kansas City, he hasn't gotten a chance to play in the majors. He came to the Pirates over the offseason, and has the chance to be the next Garrett Jones if the opportunity presents itself. By saying "the next Garrett Jones", I mean a player who has good minor league numbers but hasn't gotten a chance in the majors who goes on to hit well in the majors when finally given a chance. Matt Hague is probably the fourth guy on the depth chart at this point, and he doesn't really provide much offensive or defensive upside, and he will be limited to bench duty if he gets a chance with the major league club. Matt Curry is one of the top first base prospects in the upper levels (behind Alex Dickerson), and is rated the #23 prospect in the Pirates system, according to Baseball America. He has the potential to be a .280 hitter with 15-20 homers in the majors one day, but won't get much if any of an opportunity in 2013 at the major league level.
First base has the potential to be a strength for the Pirates in 2013, if both Garrett Jones and Gaby Sanchez hit to their potential in their potential platoon roles. But, if they don't hit up to their potential, a weakness will be created that will need to be addressed at either the trade deadline or in the next offseason, unless the team feels comfortable trusting Clint Robinson or Matt Curry to handle the first base duties. Another topic to consider is that if the Pirates seem to be out of playoff contention around the trade deadline and Jones is hitting well, could Jones be traded? If he puts up numbers like he did last year, he would be a great option for contenders and could bring a good return for the Pirates. That is something that the Pirates explored this past offseason, and could be an interesting story to follow throughout the year. But at this point, we can assume that the Pirates' first base production will be around .250-.260 with 20-25 home runs. That's not bad, but the Pirates would love to see a platoon between Jones and Sanchez produce even more than what Jones gave the team in 2012.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.
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