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Wednesday, April 3, 2013

Gaby Sanchez vs. Travis Snider

The season has just started, but there is already a great deal of debate about the lineup for the first two games.  Coming into spring training and even during spring training, it looked pretty certain that Garrett Jones would get the majority of playing time at first, with Gaby Sanchez getting some starts against lefties, and that Travis Snider would be the starting right fielder.  However, the lineups for the first two games featured Jones in right field and Sanchez at first base.  This has come as an unwelcome surprise to many fans, as Sanchez was absolutely terrible at the major league level in 2012, posting a .620 OPS in 299 at bats for the Marlins and Pirates.  Snider also had his share of struggles at the major league level, with an OPS of .697 in 164 at bats.  But, Snider had an OPS of 1.021 at AAA Las Vegas in 2012 while still in the Blue Jays organization.

Let's look at what both players bring to the team.

Gaby Sanchez
Sanchez is a 29 year old first baseman who had his rookie season in 2010 at the age of 26.  That year he finished fourth in the rookie of the year voting after hitting for a line of .273/.341/.448, with 19 home runs, 85 RBI, and an OPS of .788.  He followed that up in 2011 with a very similar line of .266/.352/.427, with 19 home runs, 78 RBI, and an OPS of .779.  He made the All-Star team, but as you can see, those stats are hardly All-Star worthy.  In 2012, Sanchez really struggled with the Marlins, with an OPS of .556 in 183 at bats.  He spent some time in the minors and was eventually traded to the Pirates in exchange for Gorkys Hernandez and the Pirates' supplemental draft pick, which will be the 35th pick in this year's draft.  Sanchez improved with the Pirates, basically becoming an average major league player with an OPS of .720 and an OPS+ of 101 (100 is average) in 116 at bats.
Sanchez had a good spring training in 2013, putting up an OPS of 1.066 in 43 at bats.  Spring training stats are largely meaningless, as hitters are facing pitchers who are trying to get a feel for their pitches again, and much of the time aren't throwing their best stuff.  Nonetheless, manager Clint Hurdle must have thought enough of those stats to give Sanchez the starting first base job.
Sanchez doesn't necessarily have a bad aspect to his game, but he doesn't have any impressive aspects either, and at 29 years old, doesn't have much room to improve.  He can hit for a decent average and about 15-20 home runs, but those are both average to below average for an everyday first baseman who doesn't play great defense.  He is a better defender than Garrett Jones, but the offensive upside is not there.  If he got the chance to start for the entire season, Sanchez can be expected to hit around .260-.270 with 15-20 home runs.  Not a stat line you want to see from your first baseman.

Travis Snider
Snider is a 25 year old former top prospect.  He has spent most of his career in the Blue Jays organization, and was acquired for Brad Lincoln around the same time as the Gaby Sanchez acquisition last season.  Snider hasn't gotten much of a chance to be an everyday player at the major league level, despite continued success at the AAA level.  In his career at AAA, he has a line of .333/.412/.565, with 33 home runs, 155 RBI, and an OPS of .976 in 696 at bats. The most at bats Snider has received at the major league level was in 2010, where he had a line of .255/.304/.463 with 14 homers, 32 RBI, and an OPS of .767.  That was Snider's age 22 season, and it came in the always tough AL East.  Despite that impressive line, he received only 187 at bats in 2011 and 164 in 2012.  It remains to be seen what Snider can do for a full season at the major league level, but there is definitely room to grow, even after two straight season of struggling.
Snider has a good deal of power potential, and although it hasn't been present at the major league level recently, it is evidenced by a .598 slugging percentage at AAA last year. Behind Alvarez and McCutchen, Snider could very well have the best power potential on the team.  He also plays a decent right field, and is also more competent than Garrett Jones is at the position.
The main thing with Travis Snider is the potential he still carries with him.  Back in 2009, he was rated as the #6 prospect in the minors by Baseball America.  Back in November, I wrote a post titled "The Case For Travis Snider", which you can read by clicking the link.  It outlines how Travis Snider needs to get the opportunity to play everyday to give him any chance of reaching his potential.  That potential is a .280 hitter with 25-35 home runs, which is an All-Star caliber player for a team that could desperately use a power bat to drive in runs.

Coming into 2012, the Pirates had a former top prospect on their hands who had experienced major struggles at the major league level, after having a good half season at the level.  The Pirates gave this player a full season of at bats to adjust to the league and prove himself, and that player responded by hitting 30 home runs.  That player was Pedro Alvarez, and giving him a full season of at bats seems to have worked out for the Pirates.  Travis Snider finds himself in a near identical position in 2013, where a full season of at-bats could really revive his major league career.  After the decision to play Alvarez everyday worked out, it would only make sense to give Snider the same opportunity.

Clint Hurdle has made a lot of questionable decisions as the manager of the Pirates, but this could be the most frustrating.  The only "argument" for Sanchez at this point is that he had a very good Spring Training.  But what does that mean?  Matt Hague had an incredible spring in 2012, but couldn't handle major league pitching.  Alvarez had a terrible spring in 2012, then followed that with a breakout season.  Spring stats really don't correlate with regular season results much of the time, and cannot be used in a valid argument.  Basically what we are looking at in the case between Gaby Sanchez vs. Travis Snider is a player who struggled greatly last season who could at best produce average offense, or a player who struggled as well, but could become an All-Star with 30+ home runs.  Personally, I'm taking the guy who could hit 30+ home runs, rather than the player who hits 20 in a best case scenario.

Snider could struggle again in 2013, or he see the same success that Pedro Alvarez saw in 2012.  But, we will never know unless Snider gets the opportunity to play everyday.  If he continues to sit the bench, he will not grow as a player, and will not be able to work on his struggles.  The best thing the Pirates can do right now is give Snider the chance to play everyday in right field, and have Garrett Jones platoon with Sanchez at first base.  You could also make an argument for a Jose Tabata-Travis Snider platoon in right as well, which I would not be against, as Tabata could use everyday at bats as well.

A lot of Pirates fans agree that Snider should be starting and have voiced their opinions.  I just wish Clint Hurdle would agree with us as well.

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.

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