Over the last few weeks, there have been multiple rumors that the Pirates have real interest in the Alex Rios, the right fielder for the Chicago White Sox. There was even a moment when Pirates fans thought that maybe a deal had gone down between the two teams when Rios was taken out of a game within twenty minutes of Pirates' top shortstop Alen Hanson being taken out of his game. That was soon found to be a pure coincidence, as Rios was taken out for not hustling, and Hanson was in the second game of a double header in which his team had a huge win.
Right field has been a weakness for the Pirates this year, with Travis Snider, who came into the season as the starter at the position, having an OPS of .629 coming into the game on July 24th. The Pirates have also used Garrett Jones, Alex Presley, Brandon Inge, Jose Tabata, Josh Harrison, and even Russell Martin at the position. Tabata is the current starter at right, and after a hot start after his return from injury, has settled down to a .738 OPS in 135 at bats on the season. Rios currently has a batting line of .278/.333/.442 in 371 at bats, with 12 home runs, 21 stolen bases, and an OPS of .775. Those numbers would clearly suggest that he has been better than what the Pirates have in right, but would he really be an upgrade?
If you look at it from a player vs. player standpoint, Rios would surely be an upgrade over Tabata, Presley, Snider, and Andrew Lambo. But, would he be an upgrade over a potential platoon between Tabata and any one of the other three lefty options? (I'm leaving Garrett Jones out, as he should be part of a platoon at first with Gaby Sanchez) Here we are going to examine the potential production of those platoon options, and compare those to the potential production from Alex Rios, who is a right handed hitter. We are going to start by evaluating Jose Tabata's side of the platoon, which would be against left handed pitching.
Jose Tabata vs. Lefties
I'm going to start this section by giving a stat that is somewhat surprising: Jose Tabata actually has a higher OPS+ than Alex Rios this season, with Tabata's number at 109 and Rios' at 106. That doesn't mean Tabata has been better than Rios, and that is conveyed by Tabata's 0.0 WAR, compared to Rios' WAR of 1.4 (those numbers according to Baseball Reference).
Over his career, Tabata hasn't really shown much, if any, of a platoon split, with a career .720 OPS against lefties and a .711 OPS against righties. This season, Tabata has actually had a pretty large reverse platoon split, with a .775 OPS against righties and a .632 OPS against lefties. For any of these platoons to have any chance of working, Tabata's numbers would have to gravitate closer to that .720 career number, and would actually need some improvement beyond that number.
Travis Snider vs. Righties
In Snider's major league career, his OPS vs. right handed pitchers in almost 100 points higher than his OPS against lefties, with a .721 number against righties and .630 against lefties. Neither of those numbers warrant him a starting position, even in a platoon situation. Snider's numbers vs righties have been even worse this year, with a .662 OPS, meaning Snider shouldn't be starting against any pitcher at this point.
Alex Presley vs. Righties
Presley has been a decent hitter against righties in his career, with a .749 OPS, but that would be enough to give him a spot in a platoon role. On the season Presley has a solid .824 OPS against righties, but that comes in a very small sample size of 34 at bats, so his career .749 number would give a better indication of the number he would put up over the rest of the season in a platoon role.
Andrew Lambo vs. Righties
Lambo's numbers come with the disclaimer that they have been against minor league pitchers. Still, his numbers have been very impressive against right handers this year, with a .304 average, 19 home runs, and 1.002 OPS in 261 at bats. Lambo would definitely be a good platoon option for the Pirates, probably the best the team has for this situation (outside of Jones), but at this point there doesn't seem to be a match for him in right field.
Alex Rios
Rios' OPS of .775 against any pitcher this year would be better than any of the Pirates players' splits, so Rios would definitely be an upgrade over any situation the Pirates currently have in their organization. Rios is only slightly better against lefties in his career, and the Pirates wouldn't trade for Rios to simply be a platoon player regardless.
The answer to this question was much more simple than I anticipated, as Rios would clearly be an upgrade over any player or platoon situation the Pirates could put together in right field. Does that mean the team needs to trade for him? It certainly doesn't, but these numbers do show that the Pirates are going to have a big weakness at the position during the pennant race unless they make a move. The trade market is pretty weak this year, but the Pirates don't need to make a trade for Rios. It would make some sense, but they would be taking on Rios' $12.5 million contract in 2014, and would have a $14 million club option for 2015. If the Pirates acquired Rios on the July 31st deadline, they would be paying him a minimum of $17.82 million over the 2013-2014 seasons, assuming they buyout his option year in 2015. That number could be lowered if the White Sox offer some salary relief, but I would suggest against that for the Pirates as that would cost a higher grade prospect, something that Rios, who is 32 years old, is not worth at this point in his career. Rios has a 4.3 WAR over the past two and a half seasons, and his numbers will most likely decline as he grows older.
Rios would provide the Pirates with a short term upgrade in right field for the 2013 playoff run, but his contract status, price for a trade, and age would make it a somewhat foolish move for the Pirates. Jose Tabata has enough talent and has the potential to hold down the right field spot, at least until top prospect Gregory Polanco is ready to take over at some point in 2014. The Pirates could always look for a cheaper option like they did with Travis Snider in 2012, but those are very rare on the current trade market. As I said in my post about if the Pirates should pursue a starting pitcher, I find the team better served to stand pat with what they have, as there are no real upgrades on the trade market that would be worth the price.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment section below.
No comments:
Post a Comment