Should The Pirates Pursue A Starting Pitcher?

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 57-39 on July 21st, something that may sound a little strange to a fanbase that celebrated only 57 wins throughout the entire 2010 season.  Ok, maybe celebrated isn't the right word there.  But the fact is that the team has drastically improved over the last three seasons, and is now only two games back in the NL Central and 7.5 games ahead in the wild card race, with 66 games remaining in the season.  There is no question as to what has put this team in the position they are in, and that is the pitching.  Coming into the game on July 21st, the pitching staff (starters and bullpen) leads the National League in ERA (3.10) and hits allowed, and also ranks fourth with 739 strikeouts.  The trio of Jeff Locke, Francisco Liriano, and A.J. Burnett have a combined 2.54 ERA.  Out of the six pitchers who have started at least seven games, the highest ERA belongs to Gerrit Cole at 3.89.  That group doesn't include Charlie Morton, who has a 3.19 ERA in six starts.  Basically, the Pirates' pitching starting pitching staff has been phenomenal in the innings they have pitched.
With the trade deadline in a little over a week, the rumor mill has been heating up and the Pirates have been connected to a couple names in the starting pitching market.  Those players are Matt Garza of the Cubs and Bud Norris of the Astros.  The Pirates are said to be one of the top options for Garza, and Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times stated that the Pirates were the "team du jour" for Garza.  But, with all the success that the Pirates have had with their starters this season, should the team pursue a starting pitcher?
To answer this question, we have to look at a few factors.  The first factor is the durability and depth of the current rotation.  Secondly, we have to see how the rotation projects for the rest of the season from a statistical standpoint.  Finally, we have to take a look at what it will cost the Pirates to acquire a player like Matt Garza or Bud Norris, and if that package would be worth it.  So, let's get started.

Depth and Durability
To this point in the season, the Pirates have used eleven different starting pitchers, including Burnett, Liriano, Locke, Cole, Morton, Wandy Rodriguez, Jeanmar Gomez, James McDonald, Brandon Cumpton, Jonathan Sanchez, and Phil Irwin.  Out of those players, Rodriguez, McDonald, and Irwin are currently on the DL, and Burnett, Morton, and Liriano have also spent time on the DL during this season (Kyle McPherson, who was battling for the fifth starter spot in spring training, recently had Tommy John surgery on July 10th).  Rodriguez and McDonald aren't expected back until late August or September, and Cumpton and Irwin are spot starters at best this year who aren't ready to spend significant time in a major league rotation.  Sanchez was released in April and has since done terrible for the Dodgers' AAA affiliate.  Also, I don't think Jeanmar Gomez has the ability to be a member of a rotation that is competing for a pennant, as he has not had much previous success in his 38 major league starts before joining the Pirates, and wasn't great in the minors.   That leaves the Pirates with a rotation of Burnett, Liriano, Locke, Cole, and Morton heading into September, which is definitely a good rotation to have.  But, what happens if one of those pitchers goes down with an injury?  Liriano and Morton both have track records of injuries, and Gerrit Cole only pitched 132 innings last year, and is already at 109.2 IP with over two months remaining.  Chances are, at least one of these five is going to go down with an injury, and would you be comfortable with Jeanmar Gomez as the fifth starter in a pennant race?  Other options from AAA that aren't listed above are Stolmy Pimentel and Andy Oliver.  Pimentel got off to a great start in AA, struggled after that, then was promoted to AAA and has a 2.74 ERA in seven starts there.  He also owns a very impressive 0.98 WHIP in 46 AAA innings.  Oliver would only be used in desperate measures, as I'm not positive he's aware that there is a strike zone, with an 8.2 BB/9 in 100 innings.  Fans would be calling for the team to call up top prospect Jameson Taillon, but that just isn't going to happen.
The Pirates currently have five guys that are healthy and good enough to pitch in a contending team's rotation.  After those five guys, there isn't much help on the way until September when Rodriguez should be able to return, barring any setbacks.  That will give the team six good starters in the September playoff race, but until then, the team will be playing with fire as there is a good chance one of the five starters goes down with an injury.  If Jeanmar Gomez would pitch the way he already has in the rotation this year, he would be a fine replacement, but I don't see that as being likely.  James McDonald could also be an option in September if someone goes down with an injury, but otherwise he really has no chance at being in the rotation again this year.


Rotation Projection
In the last section I stated that the Pirates currently have five pitchers that are set to be in the rotation going into September, along with Wandy Rodriguez in September and Jeanmar Gomez being a replacement starter.  As I also previously stated, the rotation has been fantastic this year from a statistical standpoint, but can they keep it up?  Let's take a look at those seven players and see how they project for the remainder of the season.

A.J. Burnett:  Burnett currently has an ERA of 3.07 and xFIP of 3.13, along with a .288 Batting Average of Balls In Play (BABIP), which is very close to his career number of .290.  His other advanced stats line up with his career numbers as well, so it is a safe bet that Burnett will continue to pitch the way he has for the rest of the year.

Francisco Liriano:  I expected Liriano to be due for a big regression before I looked at his advanced stats, but he actually has been pitching better than I thought this year.  He has a 2.44 ERA, which isn't far off his 2.81 FIP or 3.08 xFIP.  His strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career numbers, as is his BABIP and ground ball ratio.  The only thing concerning about Liriano is his Home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB) and left on base percentage (LOB%).  His HR/FB ratio is currently 7.5%, which leads to a 0.44 HR/9 rate.  His career numbers with those are 10.5% and 0.85, which leads me to believe that he will be letting up a few more home runs as the year progresses.  His LOB% is at 82.6%, while his career number is at 70.9%.  That means that he has been getting lucky with year with fly balls and runners on base, and he is due for some regression in that area.  Still, that shouldn't affect him too drastically, and he should still be pitching with an ERA around 3.00-3.50 for the rest of the year.

Jeff Locke:  If there is one player on the team that is due for a big regression, it's Jeff Locke.  His ERA is at 2.11, but his FIP is 3.77 and his xFIP is 4.22.  In fact, coming into his most recent start ZiPS projected him to have a 4.60 ERA for the rest of the year.  Do I think that will happen?  No, but I also don't think he will finish the year with a 2.11 ERA.  He has a very high LOB% at 83.3%, and a very low BABIP of .228, and both will eventually start to revert to normal, causing a more inflated ERA.  That being said, Jeff Locke has said to be due for regression for at least a couple months now, and he has only improved on his statistics in that time, leading many to believe this season isn't a complete fluke.  Still, expect at least a slight regression for Locke the rest of the way, with an ERA somewhere in the threes.

Gerrit Cole:  Cole's advanced numbers would actually suggest improvement as the year goes on, which isn't much of a surprise.  He hasn't overwhelmed hitters to this point, with a 5.40 K/9 rate, a number that has to improve with his ability.  His FIP and xFIP are both lower than his ERA of 3.89, with his FIP being much lower at 3.22.  As long as Cole stays in the rotation, he should see improvements in his ERA and strikeout totals.

Charlie Morton:  I'm not as high as Charlie Morton as some others are, but he is a good number five starter.  He has only pitched in six games, so his stats are a small sample size, but his ERA of 3.19 is due to regress, as his FIP is 4.44 and his xFIP is 4.18.  There are no concerns with his LOB% or ground ball rate, but his BABIP is 40 points lower than his career number.  Expect Morton's ERA to be around 4.00-4.25 for the remainder of the year, with a little give or take each way.

Wandy Rodriguez:  Wandy was pitching well before his injury, with a 3.59 ERA in 62.2 innings.  He was pretty consistent, but the numbers would suggest that he was due for moderate regression, with a 4.43 FIP and 4.04 xFIP.  His BABIP was far below his career number of .296, at .255 when he went to the DL.  His LOB% was also relatively high at 80.0% when compared to his career number of  71.6%.  But, the injury may have stalled any regression, so when he returns we can expect Wandy to pitch like he normally does, with an ERA in the 3.50-4.00 range.

Jeanmar Gomez:  Basically all of Gomez's stats would suggest that he is going to regress for the remainder of the year.  We all know he isn't going to be able to sustain his current 2.65 ERA, it's just a question of how far it will regress.  His FIP is 4.16 and his xFIP is 4.05, so we can assume his ERA will be over 4.00 until the season ends.  He has been very lucky this year, stranding over ten percent more baserunners than his career number, along with a BABIP of .228 compared to a career number of .290.  Gomez's season has been a pleasant surprise to this point, but in all likelihood his success won't continue.

Only Locke, Morton and Gomez are due for a significant amount of regression, and it seems like Locke may not regress as much as expected.  The rotation won't perform quite as well as they have to this point as the season goes on, but the numbers don't suggest they will perform too much worse.  They may have a problem at the back end of their rotation if Morton falters, as there isn't a truly good replacement expected until Rodriguez returns in September.


What Will It Take To Get Garza or Norris- Is It Worth It?
When looking at what it would take to acquire a player, you have to look at a few factors.  One factor is obviously how they are doing this year and how they have performed in the past.  One good year may really inflate a player's price, but a down year may not mean as much when he has performed well in the past.  Another important factor is how many years are remaining on the player's contract or how many years is he under team control.  A third factor is how much money would the team be taking on when they acquire the player.  Using these factors, lets look at what it may take to get Garza or Norris, and if it would be worth it.

Matt Garza:  Garza is in his final year of arbitration, making $10.2 million this year, and set for free agency once the season ends.  The Pirates would have to pay the just over $4 million remaining on his contract.  He has an ERA of 3.17 as of July 21st, and an xFIP of 3.86.  He is due for moderate regression, as ZiPS projects him to have an ERA of 3.76 for the remainder of the season.  With all those factors, you would think it would cost about what it took to get Wandy Rodriguez last year, but the Cubs are said to have an "exceptionally high" asking price for Garza, one that included top prospect Mike Olt in a potential deal with the Rangers.  As I said in my post Pirates Top 30 Prospects Before the Trade Deadline, I wouldn't give up any of the top ten prospects in the system for any of the names that are being floated out on the trade market, and that is what it would take to get Garza at this point, plus a couple more players.  With Garza hitting free agency at the end of the year, it would not be worth it giving up a top ten prospect for a two month rental.

Bud Norris:  Norris is in his first year of arbitration eligibility in 2013, so he would be under team control until for the next two years, hitting free agency after the 2015 season.  He is only making $3 million this year, and doesn't project to make a substantial amount in his next two arbitration years, so money won't be an issue here.  Norris has a 3.91 ERA this year, and isn't projected to improve or regress much.  The Pirates would be trading for a guy that will most likely put up an ERA of around 4.00 for this year and the next two years, which can come at a surprisingly steep price.  According to Tim Williams's trade value calculator over at Piratesprospects.com, it could take a top 51-100 pitching prospect and a grade C pitching prospect, or a top 51-100 hitting prospect.  Basically that is Luis Heredia and and a player like Clay Holmes in a package, or a hitter like Josh Bell or even Alen Hanson.  Bud Norris isn't a bad pitcher, but I wouldn't give up any of those packages for two and a half years of a league average pitcher.


After looking at all the factors, we can make a better decision if the Pirates should pursue a starting pitcher.  The starting pitching depth may look great from the outside, but if you look deeper the Pirates could use another starter, especially with Charlie Morton due to regress, and the injury history of the current rotation.  But, the current trade market is weak, and if Matt Garza and Bud Norris are the only real targets that the Pirates have, then they are probably better served to stand pat with their rotation and hope that no serious injuries occur.  Some of the pitchers will start to fall back to earth with their numbers, but the rotation should continue putting up some of the best numbers in the NL.  The group of six starters, excluding Gomez, averages almost exactly six innings per start, a number that you would like to see improve a little, but also a number that isn't too bad.  It will be interesting to see how the Pirates handle Gerrit Cole's innings situation, as he is on pace to pitch around 180 innings this year after only pitching 132 innings in his pro debut last year.

The Pirates do have questions facing the rotation for the remainder of the year, but currently it doesn't look like the trade market has the answers.  Some suggest that the Pirates go after the Phillies' Cliff Lee, but that would be too steep of a price for the Pirates, both economically speaking and from a prospect standpoint.  Also, the Phillies are only 6.5 games back in their division, so they may feel they can still compete.  I don't think it would be a bad idea to ask the White Sox about Chris Sale, but that would be an extremely unlikely scenario.  With nothing of much value out on the starting pitching trade market, the Pirates should stay where they are with a rotation of Burnett, Liriano, Locke, Cole, and Morton until September when Rodriguez replaces Morton, and wait until next year for players like Jameson Taillon and Nick Kingham to contribute to the major league rotation.

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.