Optimizing the 25-Man Roster, Without Trades

Written by: Michael Mawhinney


The Pirates are 46-37 and currently first place in the NL Central with about half of the season remaining.  They lead the Cincinnati Reds by one game now after the Pirates lost a close game to the San Francisco Giants, and Bronson Arroyo pitched a three-hit shutout against the San Diego Padres.  The Pirates were in a similar place last season, where they were seven games over .500 and first in the NL Central in mid to late July.  That team then ended up going 19-43 to finish out the season, and finished with the eighth worst record in the MLB, at 72-90.  But, the 2012 team seems to be much different than last years team.  This year, the Pirates have a pitching staff that is lead by a legitimate ace in James McDonald, who has learned a lot from veteran A.J. Burnett, who is also in the midst of a great season.  The rest of the rotation is made up of veterans Jeff Karstens, Kevin Correia, and Erik Bedard, who unlike last year, should be able to maintain their current level of play.  To go with this pitching staff, the Pirates have an offense that led the NL in runs scored during the month of June, and they seem to be keeping that pace into July, despite having the MLB's worst offense throughout the first two months of the season.  With a pitching staff full of veterans and a drastically improving offense, it looks like the Pirates can stay in contention for the playoffs.  But, as we saw last year, the team could completely fall apart and head towards yet another losing season.  In order to avoid that, the Pirates need to optimize their roster, and they can do that right now with the prospects and veterans that they have on their AAA roster (the AAA Indianapolis Indians currently have the best record in the International League at 55-33).  This is the roster that should give the Pirates their best chance at contending for a playoff run, and is built completely out of players that are already in the system.

Catcher- Michael McKenry: McKenry has been the backup catcher for the entire season, but Barajas has not performed well so far, with a -0.5 WAR on the season.  As a backup, McKenry's WAR is 0.8, and much of that can be attributed to his offense.  McKenry's OPS is .799 in 100 at bats so far this season, and an OPS+ of 119 (average is 100).  McKenry is playing better defense than Barajas and brings a lot of positive energy to the team.

First Base- Casey McGehee:  McGehee got off to a very slow start in 2012, but had a great month of June where he put up a line of .291/.360/.532, with five homers and an .891 OPS.  He won't be able to keep that up, but anything near that would be good for the rest of the season.  A player that should get a good amount of starts as well at first is Jeff Clement.  He is having a great season in AAA, where he has a .893 OPS with 12 home runs and 25 doubles.  His offense could be better than any other first base option the Pirates have, and a platoon of right handed McGehee and left handed Clement could be a great idea.

Second Base- Neil Walker: This is an obvious choice, as the Pittsburgh Kid is having a relatively good season, with an OPS+ of 104, but he needs to hit for more power to better his offensive impact.

Third Base- Pedro Alvarez: Since mid-June, Alvarez has been on fire.  He is currently having his best offensive year in the majors, with a .792 OPS, 117 OPS+, and a 2.0 WAR to this point.  Alvarez has the third most home runs of any third baseman in the MLB, and has been getting a lot of clutch hits recently.  He also has been playing stellar defense this year, with a 0.9 dWAR this season.

Shortstop- Jordy Mercer: Mercer may not really deserve this position, but he deserves it more than anyone else in the organization.  Barmes has been absolutely horrible this year, with an OPS of .524 and an OPS+ of 45.  That's really mind boggling that Barmes is still going out there everyday as the starting shortstop.  There is really no reason to put a guy who has a WAR of -0.6 and who hasn't been playing good defense in the lineup everyday, as he only hurts the club.  Mercer has a .778 OPS in 209 AAA at bats this year, has some power, and is a competent defender at short.  He hasn't been playing at all when in the majors, but there is no way he could be hitting worse than Barmes.  Even Chase D'Arnaud did a better job at the plate last year than Barmes has done this year.

Left Field- Starling Marte: I recently tried to decide if Marte is re ady to come up in my recent article Is It Time for Starling Marte to be Called Up?.  Dejan Kovacevic said that he was told by a high ranking official for the Pirates that Marte will be called up soon.  Marte, the top hitting prospect in the organization, should be an instant upgrade on offense and defense.  He's hitting for a .289/.348/.497 line, with nine homers, 18 stolen bases, and an .845 OPS.  He had a .944 OPS in the month of June, and is showing more consistency that will allow him to succeed in the majors.

Center Field- Andrew McCutchen: .360/.413/.610, 108 hits, 16 homers, 56 RBI, 14 stolen bases, 1.023 OPS, 181 OPS+, league leader in total bases, 4.0 WAR in 79 games. #MVP #MVP #MVP #MVP #MVP

Right Field- Garrett Jones: Jones has done a good job batting almost exclusively against right handed pitchers, with a .283/.305/.551 line and a .855 OPS against right handers.  He still struggles too much against lefties to always start against a lefty, but is a very good option against righties.  Josh Harrison or Alex Presley could start some games in right if there is a tough lefty on the mound.

Bench- Rod Barajas, Jeff Clement, Josh Harrison, Alex Presley, Clint Barmes: Barajas is still usable behind the plate and adds good leadership and the ability to work with the pitching staff.  Jeff Clement has been tearing the cover off the ball in AAA and should get a good amount of starts at first base.  Josh Harrison can play second, third, short, and right field, and can provide decent defense and timely hits if needed, but he is not a major league starter.  Presley is not hitting well this year, but still shows the ability to hit major league pitching, and could be good as a pinch hitter and occasional starter.  Barmes has been horrible this season, but he has been a good defender in the past and it's good to have another middle infielder on the bench.

#1 Starter- James Mcdonald: J-Mac has been having a great season, with a 2.45 ERA coming into his July 7th start, with a .197 average against.  He has turned into a legitimate ace this season, and the fact that he is not on the all-star team is really unbelievable.

#2 Starter- A.J. Burnett: The Burnett trade has proven to be one of GM Neal Huntington's finest, as he has done a great job for the Pirates this season.  Outside of his 2.2 IP, 12 run start in early May, he has had a 2.57 ERA.  He won eight straight starts before his no decision in his last start, which has not be done by a Pirate since the 1970's.

#3 Starter- Jeff Karstens: Karstens is coming off a fantastic start against the Astros, where he went eight shutout innings, throwing only 89 pitches.  He had a 3.38 ERA in 2011, and is starting to look like that pitcher again after his last couple starts.

#4 Starter- Jeff Locke: Either Locke or Rudy Owens would be a good option here, but I would personally go with Locke.  Both are putting up similar stats in AAA; Owens has a 2.89 ERA and Locke has a 2.92 ERA.  I'm going with Locke here because he already has some experience at the major league level, and he also has a higher upside than Rudy Owens.  Both of these guys would be an upgrade over Kevin Correia, and if the Pirates stay in contention, either Locke or Owens must be called up because a team cannot compete in the playoffs with Correia in the rotation.

5 Starter- Erik Bedard: Bedard has really struggled over the past ten or so starts, but he showed early in the season that he could be a very good major league pitcher.  He should be given a lot of time off over the all-star break, and maybe this will help him clear his head and return to the pitcher he was in April.


Long Reliever- Jared Hughes: Hughes has done a great job in the bullpen this year (2.09 ERA in 43 IP), and after he spent his first five seasons in the minors as a starter, it makes sense to use him as a long reliever. Hopefully the Pirates find someone to tried Correia to, but if they don't, he could be an option here as well.

Middle Relievers- Tony Watson, Chris Resop, Justin Wilson: Watson, a lefty, has done a pretty good job out of the bullpen, with a 1.23 WHIP in 36 appearances so far.  He has been used mostly against lefties, but should not be used as a lefty specialist.  Resop has definitely had his share of struggles over the past two years, but he still has runs where he can be a very good reliever.  He should be the last option out of the bullpen, but he is a good last option.  The last middle reliever is Justin Wilson.  Wilson is currently a starter in AAA, where he has a 3.34 ERA in 17 starts.  He has some of the best stuff in the system, but has struggled with control throughout his career.  When his control in working, he is very hard to hit and he can get a lot of strikeouts.  He pitched a little in the bullpen last year in AAA, and did a great job.  Out of the bullpen, his fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's, and he also has good secondary pitches to fall back on.  He still could be a starter in the future, but is behind Locke and Owens at this point.

Set Up Men (late innings)- Brad Lincoln, Jason Grilli: Lincoln can really be used anywhere in the bullpen, and I still feel he could be a good major league starter.  He has done too well as a reliever and been too inconsistent as a starter, so there is no reason to take him out of the bullpen.  Lincoln has the makings of a future closer, with a 0.36 ERA in 25 innings as a reliever this year.  Grilli has been great out of the set up role this year, with a 1.93 ERA and 14.1 K/9 so far this year.  If Hanrahan gets injured or is traded, either of these pitchers would be great closing options.

Closer- Joel Hanrahan: Hanrahan is the clear closer for the Pirates, as he is in the middle of his second straight all star season.  Coming into July 7th, Hanrahan is fifth in the majors in saves, and has a 2.45 ERA.  His strikeout rate is up from last year, but his walk rate is way up as well, now at 4.9.  The closer position is very over valued in the majors, and I think the Pirates should try to trade Hanrahan at the trade deadline, as he would bring back a great return.


Optimal 25 Man Roster:
C- Mckenry
1B- McGehee
2B- Walker
3B- Alvarez
SS- Mercer
LF- Marte
CF- McCutchen
RF- Jones
Bench- Barajas, Clement, Harrison, Presley, Barmes

#1- McDonald
#2- Burnett
#3- Karstens
#4- Locke
#5- Bedard
LR- Hughes
MRs- Watson, Resop, Wilson
SU- Lincoln, Grilli
CL- Hanrahan

Best Lineup:
1.) Starling Marte-LF
2.) Neil Walker- 2B
3.) Andrew McCutchen- CF
4.) Garrett Jones- RF
5.) Pedro Alvarez- 3B
6.) Jeff Clement- 1B
7.) Jordy Mercer- SS
8.) Michael McKenry- C


If the Pirates want to make the best playoff run they can, then this is the team they should go with.  There are some wild cards, including Clement, Marte, and Locke, and if these guys produce at what they are capable of, then they will be huge upgrades to what the Pirates currently have.  This above team could be a dangerous team on both offense and defense, and could lead the Pirates deep into October.

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.