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Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Pirates Should Prioritize Pitching Help

The trade deadline is now less than two weeks away and the Pirates are said to be aggressively pursuing trades on all fronts.  Here I will outline what deals the Pirates should prioritize.  For a long time this year, the Pirates offense was historically bad.  However, the Pirates offense has been incredibly hot recently and is now ranked 10th in OPS and 9th in runs scored in the NL.  The Pirates pitching started off as one of the top three pitching staffs by ERA this year in MLB, but with more pitching struggles lately, they have fallen to 5th in ERA in the National League, with a 3.53 ERA.  This is a good ERA, but there are some serious red flags when it comes to this rotation.  Among the four pitchers who have pitched the whole season, there has been a good deal of luck.  James McDonald's ERA this year is 2.59, while his FIP-Fielding Independant Pitching, which removes luck from the equation is 3.19.  James McDonald has been good this year, but not quite as good as his ERA indicates, and as I speak he is getting shelled by the Rockies.  A.J. Burnett has a comparable ERA to his FIP (3.78 v. 3.44).  Erik Bedard has a 4.55 ERA and a 4.01 FIP, so he has actually been unlucky to this point.  Kevin Correia has a 4.25 ERA and a 5.02 FIP on the year, so he has been very lucky to this point.  Overall, the Pirates pitching staff has been lucky so far this year, so it is clear that the Pirates need to go out and get someone to stabilize the rotation.  The Pirates only have one lefty in the rotation and he is not dominant, so it would be in the Pirates best interest to acquire a good lefty starter.  The two names that have appeared in trade rumors who are good fits are Jon Lester and Cole Hamels.  Cole Hamels has a 3.29 FIP, and a 2.6 WAR which would be the best among Pirates pitchers this year, followed by James McDonald's 2.4 WAR.  Jon Lester has had a "down year" according to the average fan, but looking at his advanced statistics, he is clearly still the dominant lefty ace that he has always been.  He has a 4.80 ERA on the year, but has a 3.68 FIP and a 2.4 WAR.  It sounds like he does not have the best relationship with the Red Sox as well, so they may be looking to deal him and with him having a "down year" according to his record (5-7) and ERA, he may be able to be had at a reasonable cost.  The Pirates would be best served going hard after one of these two lefty aces that will help them in this year's pennant chase. 

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