Written by: Michael Mawhinney
Over the past two years, Pirates' pitcher Joel Hanrahan has emerged as one of the top closers in the MLB, and has earned two All-Star nods. After a 2011 season where he saved 40 games, Hanrahan now leads the MLB in 2012 with 31 saves. He has a 2.18 ERA, 5.2 Hits/9, and a strikeout rate of 10.2 K/9. Because of these stats and his performance, Joel Hanrahan should be traded.
The idea of Hanrahan getting traded will surely make a lot of Pirates fans very upset, as they have come to love "Hammer time" and his unique beard and hair. He has done a great job for the Pirates and deserves a lot of the credit that he has been giving, but the fact is, closers are VERY overvalued. Tom Singer of MLB.com reports that there are elite teams willing to give "two major league bats" for Hanrahan. Whenever you can get two major league hitters for a reliever, it's generally a great deal. The Pirates need another bat if they want to have a chance at the NL pennant, and including Hanrahan in a trade could really increase the return that the Pirates receive. Four potential suitors for Hanrahan that could use a closer in their playoff race are the Red Sox, White Sox, Blue Jays, and Angels. In a trade for Hanrahan, the Pirates could also look for top prospects instead of major league hitters, as closers can bring in a good haul that way, as well. Here's a quick look at what these teams could offer:
Red Sox: Prospects: SS Xander Bogaerts, CF Jackie Bradley, C Blake Swihart
Bogaerts is 19 year old shortstop in high-A, with an .840 OPS. He has a lot of power potential, shown by 14 home runs this year, and has made good contact as well, with a .287 average this year. However, it seems unlikely he will stay at short. Keith Law has him as the #29 prospect in his mid-season rankings, so it is unlikely the Red Sox would part with him. Bradley is a very good defensive center fielder, and he has hit well this year, with an average .338 across high-A and AA, along with a .956 OPS. With this production, it also seems unlikely he is traded, but he is more likely to be dealt than Bogaerts. Swihart is an athletic catcher that needs more work at that position, but as a first round pick in 2011, he still has a lot of time to become the two way catcher he has the potential to be.
Major Leaguers: OF Ryan Kalish, OF Cody Ross
Kalish is a 24 year old former top prospect. He's been terrible this year in the majors, with a .488 OPS, but has hit well at AAA so far. Ross, who was a playoff hero for the Giants in 2010, has 16 home runs this year, but may cost more than just Joel Hanrahan.
White Sox: Prospects: The White Sox minor league system is horrible, and I do not suggest we trade for any of their prospects as we could get much more for Hanrahan.
Major Leaguers: After further review, the White Sox really have nothing to offer us. Cross them off as a potential trade partner. I do not know how they are winning right now, other than their division is not good at all.
Blue Jays: Prospects: C Travis D'Arnaud, RHP Aaron Sanchez, CF Jake Marisnick
Unlike the White Sox, the Blue Jays have a very good farm system. D'Arnaud, brother of Pirates' minor league Chase D'arnaud, is one of the top prospects in baseball, and has a .975 OPS in AAA this year as a 23 year old. But, D'arnaud is blocked in the MLB at catcher by J.P. Arencibia. The Blue Jays are obviously going to be very resistant to the idea of trading D'arnaud, but offering Joel Hanrahan and another good prospect or two like Jeff Locke, Justin Wilson, or even a lower level guy like Nick Kingham could turn out to be a great deal for the Pirates, who lack a good long term option at catcher if Tony Sanchez doesn't step up. Aaron Sanchez has a great arm, striking out over ten guys per nine innings, but also has a lot of control problems. He isn't letting up a lot of hits, and he would be a great addition to the system. Marisnick has the potential to be a five tool player, but has struggled so far in his jump to AA as a 21 year old. But after a great 2011 in low-A where he put up a .888 OPS, he is still a good trade option.
Major Leaguers: 1B Adam Lind, SS Yunel Escobar, OF Travis Snider
Any deal that involves a struggling player in the AL East who has had success in the past is very intriguing to me. This is because the AL East is possibly the best division in baseball, and the NL Central is one of the worst. As we've seen with A.J. Burnett, a player who struggled in the AL East can do great things with a move to the NL Central. Adam Lind has had three straight years coming into 2012 of 23 or more home runs, but has struggled with his bat this year. However, he would be an improvement over Casey McGehee offensively at first, and that would allow Jones to move to the outfield, where offense outside of McCutchen has been bad. Escobar is a decent hitting shortstop, but his attitude has caused some potential suitors to back off, as he can really hurt the clubhouse. Snider is a former top prospect who could also benefit from a move to the NL Central. He is 24 years old an has a career .976 OPS in AAA.
Angels: Prospects: RHP Garrett Richards, RHP John Hellweg, 1B C.J. Cron
Richards, who has started eight games in the majors this year and has a 3.91 ERA, has a plus fastball that he throws at 94-100 MPH, along with a good slider and good changeup. He doesn't strike out a lot of batters, and his control has been bad in his time in the majors. The Angels are very unlikely to deal Richards, as they did not include him in the Zack Greinke deal. Hellweg is a huge righty with a plus fastball, but control has been a major issue. He also went from striking out 11.4 batters per nine innings last year to striking out only 6.6 per nine this year, which could be a red flag. Cron is a big power hitter who is putting up a good average this year at .292, but he almost never walks, with a 2.7% walk rate. A plus side to that rate is that his strikeout rate is also very low, at 12.2%, which is amazing for a power hitter. C.J. Cron would be the best and most likely option here to me, but I seem to like him more as a prospect than others do.
Major Leaguers: OF Peter Bourjos
Bourjos would be a good pick up for Hanrahan, and a deal could probably get done between the two teams, as the Angels may be looking to trade him from their crowded outfield. Bourjos is a great defensive centerfielder, far better than McCutchen and better than Marte two, but would probably play left and move Marte to right if the Pirates acquired him. His bat is the wild card here, and could be a great boost to the Pirates if he hit around .280 and continued his amazing defense.
The Blue Jays and Angels seem to match up better with the Pirates, especially in the Bourjos case. I would love to see a deal made to get D'Arnaud, but that would probably never happen. I think Travis Snider would be a good guy to trade for, as he was recently one of the best prospects in all of baseball, and hasn't really been given a chance to play everyday in the majors and prove himself. A straight up Hanrahan for Snider trade would make sense for both clubs, and the Pirates may be able to get even more out of that deal.
If the Pirates could get any player that is or could be a good Major League starting pitcher or hitter, then they have to make that deal. Hanrahan pitches for one inning in about 43% of the Pirates' games, so getting a good everyday player would be well worth it. Also, the Pirates have guys that can fill in for Hanrahan and succeed as the closer. Brad Lincoln, Jason Grilli, and even Bryan Morris would all be good or better major league closers in my eyes right now. Personally, I think Lincoln would do even better than Hanrahan is doing. Also, there have been rumors that the Phillies would give the Pirates Shane Victorino in exchange for Brad Lincoln. Hanrahan's value is almost certainly much higher than Lincoln's, so just think what we could get for Hanrahan.
Playoff teams do need a good closer that can come in and shut the door in close games, but Hanrahan should be traded as his value will never be higher, and the Pirates have guys that can fill in as the closer. There are a lot of good trade options out there for the Pirates and Hanrahan, and the Pirates have to take full advantage of the value that Hanrahan could bring.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
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