After waiting a few days for the deal to be finalized, the Pirates and Red Sox completed a deal that sent closer Joel Hanrahan and infielder Brock Holt to the Red Sox in exchange for OF/1B Jerry Sands, reliever Mark Melancon, RHP Stolmy Pimentel, and infielder Ivan DeJesus Jr.
What the Pirates Get:
The Pirates received two players that should definitely be on their major league roster in 2013, another player who has a chance to be on the roster at some point, and a starting pitcher that should start in AA.
The two almost-guaranteed major leaguers are Jerry Sands and Mark Melancon, with DeJesus Jr. most likely starting in AAA and Pimentel starting in the AA rotation.
Jerry Sands: Sands is a player who has had a lot of success at the AAA level, with a career .288/.362/.552 batting line, with 55 home runs and 195 RBI in 822 at bats. Those are fantastic power numbers, but they also are coming from the Pacific Coast League, where traditionally players' power numbers are inflated. Still, 55 homers and 195 RBI in only 822 at bats is very impressive. Sands' strikeout rate is somewhat high at 20.66% in the minors, but he draws a good amount of walks and puts up a good OBP. Defensively, Sands is best suited for right field, where his decent speed and arm would play best. He also plays first base, and has the chance to be an above average defender. Sands should at least get the chance to platoon with Garrett Jones and/or Travis Snider, as he has a .904 OPS against lefties in 79 at bats at the major league level.
Mark Melancon: Melancon has had success at the major league level before, most of it coming in 2011 when he saved 20 games for the Astros. In 2012, he seemingly took a step backwards, posting a 6.20 ERA. But if you look closer, he had good secondary numbers, with a 8.2/2.4 K/BB ratio. The number that really stands out is his 1.60 HR/9 ratio in 2012, far above his career 0.9 number, showing that some bad luck led to his inflated ERA. Melancon has good stuff, with a great two-pitch mix including a mid 90's fastball and plus curveball. He has displayed good control in the past, and the problems he has experienced seem to stem from his mentality.
Ivan DeJesus Jr.: DeJesus is a very similar player to Brock Holt, the prospect the Red Sox received in this deal. They both play middle infield, but both will most likely end up at second base because of defensive problems at shortstop. DeJesus will put up a lower average than Holt, but gets on base at a similar rate and will hit a few more homers. Both will probably steal about 10-15 bases a year as a starter, but both are better served as a good bench player or utility infielder. If I had to choose between the two, I would choose Brock Holt.
Stolmy Pimentel: Pimentel has struggled at the AA level in his age 21 and 22 seasons, with a 5.96 ERA in 166 innings, but has the ability to perform much better. He has shown good control at times and has a decent strikeout rate during his minor league career. His fastball that sits around 92-94, but he struggles to throw the pitch with consistent command. He combines his fastball with a changeup that comes in around 80 MPH, and a slider that ranges anywhere from the mid to high 80's. Both of the pitches have the chance to become plus pitches, with his changeup already rated as plus by some outlets.
What the Red Sox Get:
The Red Sox brought in a guy who has already told that he will be the team's closer in 2013, and a utility infielder that is basically interchangeable with Ivan DeJesus Jr.
Joel Hanrahan: Since he was converted to closer to begin the 2011 season, Joel Hanrahan has been one of the best closers in the majors, becoming a two time All-Star and converting 76 of 84 saves in that time. The Hammer, as he has come to be known, has a power fastball, sitting in the mid-90's, and occasionally reaching 98-99 MPH. Along with that is a plus slider that sits in the upper 80's and induces a lot of swings and misses, making for a great two pitch combo. But, his control disappeared in 2012, going from a 2.1 BB/9 in 2011 to a 5.4 BB/9 in 2012. He was still effective, but not as effective as many may think. His ERA in 2012 was 2.72, but his FIP was 4.45. Still, with the two pitch combo that Hanrahan has, he is a great addition to any team.
Brock Holt: I already covered most of what Holt brings to the table in my analysis of DeJesus. Holt is a middle infielder who should end up at second down the road if ever given an opportunity to start, but is best served as a utility infielder. He has hit for a good average at all levels in the minors, getting on base at a good rate but with no power. He does hit for a lot of doubles, and has good speed on the base paths. In 65 at bats at the major league level in 2012, Holt hit for a .292/.329/.354 line with a .682 OPS.
Who Wins?
Both teams got what they were looking for in this deal. Basically, the deal was really Joel Hanrahan for Jerry Sands, Mark Melancon, and Stolmy Pimentel, as Holt and DeJesus somewhat cancel each other out. So, Boston brought in a proven closer who will sure up the back-end of their bullpen, moving Andrew Bailey into a set-up role. The deal would work more in Boston's favor if they could sign Hanrahan to a few extra years, as he becomes a free agent at the end of the 2013 season.
Pittsburgh acquired a potential average to above average everyday player in Jerry Sands. He has a good deal of power and should be a great platoon option against lefties with a chance to eventually take over everyday duties at first or right field. Pimentel could develop into a number four or five starter, but the real wild card in this deal that could make this a win for the Pirates is Mark Melancon. When the Pirates brought in Hanrahan in 2009, he had a 7.71 ERA, but his secondary numbers showed that he was much better than that. The same situation is present with Melancon in this trade, with a 6.20 ERA but much better secondary numbers. He has a great two pitch mix with his fastball and curveball, not as good as Hanrahan's fastball slider combo, but still very effective. Neal Huntington, the Pirates GM, and pitching coach Ray Searage both have good histories with relievers, making it a better chance that Melancon succeeds for the Pirates.
The Red Sox and the Pirates could both see benefits in this trade. It would be great for the Red Sox if Hanrahan continued to be one of the best closers in the game, and be made even better if they could sign him to a few more years before he hits free agency (judging by this offseason, I would expect a three year deal worth $39 million). The trade could tip in the Pirates favor if Sands becomes an above average everyday player, and even more so if Melancon becomes the next Joel Hanrahan, which he has the potential to do with his new team.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment section below.
Wednesday, December 26, 2012
Sunday, December 9, 2012
2013 Positional Preview: Catcher
According to General Manager Neal Huntington, the Pirates have already made their biggest move of the offseason in signing catcher Russell Martin to a two-year, $17 million deal. Martin was considered the top free agent catcher, and with the catcher position being the Pirates biggest hole going into the offseason, it made sense for the Pirates to pursue and sign Martin. At first, the two-year, $17 million deal seemed slightly pricey for the numbers that Martin has put up, but after Mike Napoli's three-year, $39 million signing with the Red Sox, the Martin signing looks much more fair to the Pirates.
Another option that the Pirates could have explored to find a catcher was through a trade. Many teams are understandably hesitant to trade their young catchers, which leads to a consistently difficult trading market for the position. The Blue Jays are a team that could have been a good trade partner for the Pirates because they have a surplus of catchers at the major league level. The Blue Jays plan on top prospect Travis D'Arnaud to take over the starting catcher role in 2013, and they have JP Arencibia and recently acquired John Buck behind him on the depth chart. Arencibia would have been a great trade option for the Pirates, as he is a young player that has hit for plenty of power at the major league level. But, the Blue Jays seem to be intent on keeping all of their catchers. And outside of Travis D'Arnaud, there are very few top catching prospects in the minors that could provide an instant impact at the Major League level, and the price of those players would most likely be too high for the Pirates.
With the signing of Russell Martin, the catching tandem for the 2013 Pirates is now set. Michael McKenry, who had a fantastic first have in 2012 will back up Martin, who will get the majority of time behind the plate. Many fans wanted McKenry to be the Pirates' starting catcher for 2013 because of his offense in the first half of the season, but his final batting line was .233/.320/.442 with a .762 OPS and 12 home runs in 240 at bats. That is above average for a catcher, but was also very inflated from his first half numbers, where he
had a line of .252/.328/.524, with seven homers and an OPS of .852 in 103 at bats. But, in the second half, where McKenry got the majority of his at bats, he had a line of .219/.314/.380, with five homers and an OPS of .694 in 137 at bats. McKenry did have a good year offensively, but because of his first half numbers, many fans think he performed better than he did in reality.
Now onto Russell Martin. Martin was a promising young catcher for the Dodgers in 2007 when he put up a great offensive year as a 24 year-old, posting an .843 OPS. But after another solid offensive year in 2008, Martin has not put up an OPS of over .732 in the past four years. He was signed by the Yankees for 2011 and 2012, where he played stellar defense and hit for power, but also hit for averages of .237 and .211, the worst numbers of his career. Something that the Pirates should be concerned about is Martin's power output coming into PNC Park. With the relatively deep left field at PNC Park, some right handed hitters will see a drop-off in their power numbers, especially in Martin's case where he is coming from hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. But, even with lessened power numbers by Martin, we can expect to see his average rise from his .211 mark in 2012, and his offensive production should say about the same as it has been in recent years.
Russell Martin is a great defensive catcher, and can handle a pitching staff very well. But, similar things were said about Rod Barajas last year, and we all know how that turned out. The Pirates have not been lucky with their free agent signings, with many of them taking a turn for the worst in their careers once they come to the Pirates (Barmes, Barajas, Overbay, etc..). Martin is more productive and more durable than Barajas was, so it is doubtful that the Pirates face another Barajas situation with Martin. The Pirates could also be hopeful that Martin has a similar turnaround that A.J. Burnett experience last year after coming over to the Pirates after a few years with the Yankees in the AL East. Martin will face worse pitching in the NL Central, and also has good career numbers against NL Central teams, so this turnaround is not out of the question, but is still unlikely.
The wildcard at the catching position for the next couple years is 2009 first round pick Tony Sanchez. After a very disappointing 2011 campaign where he entered the season as Baseball America's number 46 prospect and ended as a possible "draft bust", Sanchez put up decent offensive numbers in 2012 between AA and AAA, with a combined .739 OPS. Sanchez's calling card is his defense and ability to call a game, so his offensive output will ultimately decide where his career takes him. With the two year deal that Russell Martin received, Sanchez's opportunities will be limited at the major league level unless a move is made. But, don't be surprised if Sanchez emerges as a candidate to take over the everyday catching job if Russell Martin struggles. Sanchez is going to work very hard to prove himself over this offseason and the regular season, and could regain the offensive ability that he showed in his first two seasons with the Pirates.
The signing of Russell Martin put into place the Pirates' catching duo for the next couple of seasons. Expect Martin to put up an OPS somewhere between .720 and .740, with McKenry putting up similar numbers off of the bench. Both should also handle the pitching staff very well and provide solid defense behind the plate. But, don't count out prospect Tony Sanchez over the next two years, as he has the chance to surprise some people.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment section below.
Another option that the Pirates could have explored to find a catcher was through a trade. Many teams are understandably hesitant to trade their young catchers, which leads to a consistently difficult trading market for the position. The Blue Jays are a team that could have been a good trade partner for the Pirates because they have a surplus of catchers at the major league level. The Blue Jays plan on top prospect Travis D'Arnaud to take over the starting catcher role in 2013, and they have JP Arencibia and recently acquired John Buck behind him on the depth chart. Arencibia would have been a great trade option for the Pirates, as he is a young player that has hit for plenty of power at the major league level. But, the Blue Jays seem to be intent on keeping all of their catchers. And outside of Travis D'Arnaud, there are very few top catching prospects in the minors that could provide an instant impact at the Major League level, and the price of those players would most likely be too high for the Pirates.
With the signing of Russell Martin, the catching tandem for the 2013 Pirates is now set. Michael McKenry, who had a fantastic first have in 2012 will back up Martin, who will get the majority of time behind the plate. Many fans wanted McKenry to be the Pirates' starting catcher for 2013 because of his offense in the first half of the season, but his final batting line was .233/.320/.442 with a .762 OPS and 12 home runs in 240 at bats. That is above average for a catcher, but was also very inflated from his first half numbers, where he
had a line of .252/.328/.524, with seven homers and an OPS of .852 in 103 at bats. But, in the second half, where McKenry got the majority of his at bats, he had a line of .219/.314/.380, with five homers and an OPS of .694 in 137 at bats. McKenry did have a good year offensively, but because of his first half numbers, many fans think he performed better than he did in reality.
Now onto Russell Martin. Martin was a promising young catcher for the Dodgers in 2007 when he put up a great offensive year as a 24 year-old, posting an .843 OPS. But after another solid offensive year in 2008, Martin has not put up an OPS of over .732 in the past four years. He was signed by the Yankees for 2011 and 2012, where he played stellar defense and hit for power, but also hit for averages of .237 and .211, the worst numbers of his career. Something that the Pirates should be concerned about is Martin's power output coming into PNC Park. With the relatively deep left field at PNC Park, some right handed hitters will see a drop-off in their power numbers, especially in Martin's case where he is coming from hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. But, even with lessened power numbers by Martin, we can expect to see his average rise from his .211 mark in 2012, and his offensive production should say about the same as it has been in recent years.
Russell Martin is a great defensive catcher, and can handle a pitching staff very well. But, similar things were said about Rod Barajas last year, and we all know how that turned out. The Pirates have not been lucky with their free agent signings, with many of them taking a turn for the worst in their careers once they come to the Pirates (Barmes, Barajas, Overbay, etc..). Martin is more productive and more durable than Barajas was, so it is doubtful that the Pirates face another Barajas situation with Martin. The Pirates could also be hopeful that Martin has a similar turnaround that A.J. Burnett experience last year after coming over to the Pirates after a few years with the Yankees in the AL East. Martin will face worse pitching in the NL Central, and also has good career numbers against NL Central teams, so this turnaround is not out of the question, but is still unlikely.
The wildcard at the catching position for the next couple years is 2009 first round pick Tony Sanchez. After a very disappointing 2011 campaign where he entered the season as Baseball America's number 46 prospect and ended as a possible "draft bust", Sanchez put up decent offensive numbers in 2012 between AA and AAA, with a combined .739 OPS. Sanchez's calling card is his defense and ability to call a game, so his offensive output will ultimately decide where his career takes him. With the two year deal that Russell Martin received, Sanchez's opportunities will be limited at the major league level unless a move is made. But, don't be surprised if Sanchez emerges as a candidate to take over the everyday catching job if Russell Martin struggles. Sanchez is going to work very hard to prove himself over this offseason and the regular season, and could regain the offensive ability that he showed in his first two seasons with the Pirates.
The signing of Russell Martin put into place the Pirates' catching duo for the next couple of seasons. Expect Martin to put up an OPS somewhere between .720 and .740, with McKenry putting up similar numbers off of the bench. Both should also handle the pitching staff very well and provide solid defense behind the plate. But, don't count out prospect Tony Sanchez over the next two years, as he has the chance to surprise some people.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment section below.
Sunday, November 4, 2012
The Case For Travis Snider
If you're reading this, you may have noticed that I haven't posted anything since the trade deadline. It wasn't because the Pirates started to struggle not long after the deadline, I have just been very busy with work, school, and sports. I will try to start posting more from now on for Bloggin Buccos.
Now on to the post. The Pirates acquired Travis Snider from the Blue Jays at this year's trading deadline in exchange for reliever Brad Lincoln, and you can see my analysis of that trade in this link. Snider struggled after the trade, with a batting line of .250/.324/.328, along with a .652 OPS and only one home run. The biggest disappointment of his time with the Pirates was his power production, which can be seen with his .328 slugging percentage and .078 ISO (SLG-AVG, used to determine a player's isolated power). He had only seven extra base hits in 128 at bats, and this is coming after a career .565 slugging percentage in 696 at bats at the AAA level. Expectations were much higher for him from most fans, but Snider will still only be 25 years old for all of the 2013 season, so there is still time for that power to be shown for the Pirates.
2010 was the best year in the majors for Snider, and that came when he was only 22 years old. He had a batting line of .255/.304/.463, with a .767 OPS and 14 home runs in 298 at bats. If I estimate the average number of at bats from an entire season to be 550 at bats, Snider's home run production in 2010 would be about 26 home runs at this number of at bats. That's a pretty good number for such a young player in the AL East, and would have put him among the best power hitters for the Pirates in 2012. This may not mean much, but the point I'm trying to get across is that the power is there with Snider. He has the ability to change a game with one swing of the bat, with possibly the second best raw power on the team, behind only Pedro Alvarez. And, the only way that Snider is going to be able to reach this power potential is by getting the chance to play everyday.
The only guaranteed outfield spot heading into the 2013 season obviously is held by center fielder Andrew McCutchen, with the competition still wide open for left and right field. It is doubtful the Pirates pursue a starting outfielder in free agency this offseason, which means the players fighting for these two positions will be Snider, Starling Marte, Alex Presley and Jose Tabata. Marte was about as expected in his debut, with a 104 OPS+ (100 being average), but had a very high, Alvarez-esque strikeout rate of 29.9%. Regardless of that stat, he will most likely get the chance to be the everyday starting left fielder going into the 2013 season. Presley and Tabata both had their fair share of struggles in 2012, with -0.1 and -0.2 WAR values, respectively. Tabata did have a higher on base percentage, however, with a .315 mark, compared to Presley's .279. Snider's on base percentage of .324 with the Pirates was the highest out of this group.
Assuming that Marte will being the starting left fielder in 2013, the competition comes down to Alex Presley, Jose Tabata, and Travis Snider. This is a group of young players that have yet to play a full season in the majors. So, who deserves the job? Let's look at what each player can bring to the table.
Alex Presley: Presley is a speedy outfielder who has had some success at the major league level back in 2011 when he put up an .804 OPS. However, he really struggled to get on base in 2012, and a lot of these struggles came as the leadoff hitter, where he had a .283 OBP in 243 at bats. He did hit for some power, with ten homers in 346 at bats, but his long term upside might be as a good fourth outfielder.
Jose Tabata: Tabata had an impressive rookie season in 2010 when he finished 8th in rookie of the year voting, but his production has diminished since then. He had a very disappointing first half in 2012, with a line of .230/.295/.341, along with a .636 OPS in 252 at bats. But, he came on strong in limited time in the second half of the season after time in the minors, with a line of .284/.376/.370 and a .747 OPS in 81 at bats. Tabata signed a six year, $14.75 million deal in 2011, along with three option years that could keep him with the team until 2019. Tabata was once the #27 prospect in baseball, according to Baseball America, back in 2007, and #75 in 2009. He contract was very team friendly when he signed, and his struggles have come before his age 24 season. He still has a lot of time to return to his 2010 form and even better himself from that, but he may benefit from some time in the minors to work out some problems. If not, Tabata's potential upside and team possible team friendly deal could allow him to be a trade piece over the offseason.
Travis Snider: There is no doubt that Travis Snider has the highest upside out of these three players. He has the potential to be a .280 hitter, along with 25-35 home runs a year. He has a career .976 OPS in AAA and has been able to get on base at all levels, and I personally believe that most people who have consistent success in AAA will find success in the MLB if given ample opportunities. Snider has never been given more than 298 at bats in five years in the majors, and when he did get 298 at bats, he had a .767 OPS and 14 homers as a 22 year old. Snider has the chance to join McCutchen, Alvarez and Jones in what could be a formidable middle of the order threat for the Pirates. But, Snider isn't going to be able to reach his potential by watching the game from the bench. In many other activities, you can learn a lot from watching, but in baseball, you are only going to improve by getting consistent playing time. Snider brings so much more to the plate than either Tabata or Presley, and it would be foolish to waste the natural talent that Snider has. The Pirates haven't had four players with 25+ home runs on the same team for a long time, if not for the first time ever, and Snider is the only guy in the system that could help the team accomplish this.
Travis Snider has the potential to be an all-star, and at 25 years old, he has plenty of time to develop into the player that he has the chance to be. But, the only way he can do this is by getting the opportunity to play everyday. Tabata and Presley don't have the upside that Snider has, and the best route for the Pirates with these three players heading into 2013 is starting Snider in right, using Presley as the fourth outfielder, and allowing Tabata to work out his struggles in AAA. This gives the Pirates the best opportunity to have a legitimate offensive threat, with McCutchen, Alvarez, Jones, Walker, and Snider and Marte if they can even approach their potential.
Snider could be the next power hitting all-star from the Pirates, but the only way to find out if he can do this is by giving him the chance to succeed by playing everyday.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
Now on to the post. The Pirates acquired Travis Snider from the Blue Jays at this year's trading deadline in exchange for reliever Brad Lincoln, and you can see my analysis of that trade in this link. Snider struggled after the trade, with a batting line of .250/.324/.328, along with a .652 OPS and only one home run. The biggest disappointment of his time with the Pirates was his power production, which can be seen with his .328 slugging percentage and .078 ISO (SLG-AVG, used to determine a player's isolated power). He had only seven extra base hits in 128 at bats, and this is coming after a career .565 slugging percentage in 696 at bats at the AAA level. Expectations were much higher for him from most fans, but Snider will still only be 25 years old for all of the 2013 season, so there is still time for that power to be shown for the Pirates.
2010 was the best year in the majors for Snider, and that came when he was only 22 years old. He had a batting line of .255/.304/.463, with a .767 OPS and 14 home runs in 298 at bats. If I estimate the average number of at bats from an entire season to be 550 at bats, Snider's home run production in 2010 would be about 26 home runs at this number of at bats. That's a pretty good number for such a young player in the AL East, and would have put him among the best power hitters for the Pirates in 2012. This may not mean much, but the point I'm trying to get across is that the power is there with Snider. He has the ability to change a game with one swing of the bat, with possibly the second best raw power on the team, behind only Pedro Alvarez. And, the only way that Snider is going to be able to reach this power potential is by getting the chance to play everyday.
The only guaranteed outfield spot heading into the 2013 season obviously is held by center fielder Andrew McCutchen, with the competition still wide open for left and right field. It is doubtful the Pirates pursue a starting outfielder in free agency this offseason, which means the players fighting for these two positions will be Snider, Starling Marte, Alex Presley and Jose Tabata. Marte was about as expected in his debut, with a 104 OPS+ (100 being average), but had a very high, Alvarez-esque strikeout rate of 29.9%. Regardless of that stat, he will most likely get the chance to be the everyday starting left fielder going into the 2013 season. Presley and Tabata both had their fair share of struggles in 2012, with -0.1 and -0.2 WAR values, respectively. Tabata did have a higher on base percentage, however, with a .315 mark, compared to Presley's .279. Snider's on base percentage of .324 with the Pirates was the highest out of this group.
Assuming that Marte will being the starting left fielder in 2013, the competition comes down to Alex Presley, Jose Tabata, and Travis Snider. This is a group of young players that have yet to play a full season in the majors. So, who deserves the job? Let's look at what each player can bring to the table.
Alex Presley: Presley is a speedy outfielder who has had some success at the major league level back in 2011 when he put up an .804 OPS. However, he really struggled to get on base in 2012, and a lot of these struggles came as the leadoff hitter, where he had a .283 OBP in 243 at bats. He did hit for some power, with ten homers in 346 at bats, but his long term upside might be as a good fourth outfielder.
Jose Tabata: Tabata had an impressive rookie season in 2010 when he finished 8th in rookie of the year voting, but his production has diminished since then. He had a very disappointing first half in 2012, with a line of .230/.295/.341, along with a .636 OPS in 252 at bats. But, he came on strong in limited time in the second half of the season after time in the minors, with a line of .284/.376/.370 and a .747 OPS in 81 at bats. Tabata signed a six year, $14.75 million deal in 2011, along with three option years that could keep him with the team until 2019. Tabata was once the #27 prospect in baseball, according to Baseball America, back in 2007, and #75 in 2009. He contract was very team friendly when he signed, and his struggles have come before his age 24 season. He still has a lot of time to return to his 2010 form and even better himself from that, but he may benefit from some time in the minors to work out some problems. If not, Tabata's potential upside and team possible team friendly deal could allow him to be a trade piece over the offseason.
Travis Snider: There is no doubt that Travis Snider has the highest upside out of these three players. He has the potential to be a .280 hitter, along with 25-35 home runs a year. He has a career .976 OPS in AAA and has been able to get on base at all levels, and I personally believe that most people who have consistent success in AAA will find success in the MLB if given ample opportunities. Snider has never been given more than 298 at bats in five years in the majors, and when he did get 298 at bats, he had a .767 OPS and 14 homers as a 22 year old. Snider has the chance to join McCutchen, Alvarez and Jones in what could be a formidable middle of the order threat for the Pirates. But, Snider isn't going to be able to reach his potential by watching the game from the bench. In many other activities, you can learn a lot from watching, but in baseball, you are only going to improve by getting consistent playing time. Snider brings so much more to the plate than either Tabata or Presley, and it would be foolish to waste the natural talent that Snider has. The Pirates haven't had four players with 25+ home runs on the same team for a long time, if not for the first time ever, and Snider is the only guy in the system that could help the team accomplish this.
Travis Snider has the potential to be an all-star, and at 25 years old, he has plenty of time to develop into the player that he has the chance to be. But, the only way he can do this is by getting the opportunity to play everyday. Tabata and Presley don't have the upside that Snider has, and the best route for the Pirates with these three players heading into 2013 is starting Snider in right, using Presley as the fourth outfielder, and allowing Tabata to work out his struggles in AAA. This gives the Pirates the best opportunity to have a legitimate offensive threat, with McCutchen, Alvarez, Jones, Walker, and Snider and Marte if they can even approach their potential.
Snider could be the next power hitting all-star from the Pirates, but the only way to find out if he can do this is by giving him the chance to succeed by playing everyday.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
Nothing To Hate About the Snider-Lincoln Trade
Late last night, the Pirates acquired outfielder Travis Snider for reliever Brad Lincoln in a one-for-one trade. For the Pirates, there is nothing to hate about this deal. Whenever you can trade a 27 year-old reliever for a 24 year old potential All-Star who is under team control until 2015, you have to make that deal. Just like how closers are overvalued, other relievers will be overvalued as well.
WAR is a great stat to determine a player's overall value. McCutchen's WAR this year is 5.4, which is second in the MLB behind Mike Trout (6.2). Lincoln's WAR this year is at 1.2, while Snider's WAR is at 0.2. Yes, Lincoln's is much higher, but Snider only has 36 at bats this season in ten games. Also, as a reliever, Lincoln's WAR is almost as high as it will ever be. Aroldis Chapman, now the Red's closer, is having an incredible season out of the bullpen, and his WAR is at 2.4. That number is greatly increased because he has 21 saves now, and would be lower if he remained in a set-up role. Personally, I don't think Lincoln will ever have a season like Chapman is having, and I doubt Lincoln's WAR will ever reach 2.0 unless he is made a starter or reliever. To put that in perspective, an average major league starter's (position player) WAR is about 2.0. So, at his peak value, Lincoln has the same worth as an average major league starter. With Snider, you have a guy that could be a perennial All-Star candidate, with Baseball-Reference putting an All-Star's WAR at 5+. It can definitely be argued that Snider won't be an All-Star, but even if he is just an average starter, he will probably still provide more value than Lincoln ever will as a reliever.
Another stat that I want to throw out there is 27.5%. That is the percentage of games that Brad Lincoln has appeared in for the Pirates. When coming out of the bullpen, Lincoln averages 1.55 innings. So, for less than 30% of the Pirates games, Brad Lincoln came in and pitched an average of less than two innings. In exchange for this, the Pirates got a guy that could play every inning of every game, and who could do very well.
There is the option that Brad Lincoln could start for the Blue Jays, which could increase his value. But, how would he perform in the rotation? In five starts this year, Lincoln had a 6.08 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and only compiled 23.2 innings. That's less than five innings a start. If he struggled this much in the NL Central, how is he going to have more success in the AL East, the best division in baseball? An example of the difference between these two divisions: A.J. Burnett had an ERA of 5.15 in his last year in the AL East, one year after he posted a 5.26 ERA. Now, as a 35 year old in the NL Central, Burnett has a 3.52 ERA. It is doubtful that Lincoln will become an above average starter, as he is 27 years-old and moving to a much stronger division, so the only way he could increase his value is moving to the closer role.
Now on to Travis Snider. I feel the same thing would apply to Snider, moving from the AL East to the NL Central. He's going to face easier pitching in his new division, which could easily better his production. He's also moving into PNC Park, where the short deck in right field could help his power numbers moving forward.
Here is something we can't forget, just three years ago in 2009, Snider was the #6 prospect in all of baseball. He has yet to be given more than 300 at bats in one season at the major league level. When he was given 298 at-bats as a 22 year-old, he hit 14 home runs. Now let's look at his AAA numbers. In 183 games and 696 at bats, Snider has a batting line of .333/.412/.565, good for a .976 OPS, along with 56 doubles, 33 home runs, 155 RBI, and 17 stolen bases. Even though he played in the traditionally hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, those numbers are still outstanding. This season, in 56 games and 209 at bats at AAA, Snider has a line of .335/.423/.598, with a 1.021 OPS, 13 home runs, and 56 RBI. This is where I would like to remind everyone that Travis Snider is 24 years-old. He is only eight months older than Starling Marte, and is a year younger than Pedro Alvarez.
The Pirates needed an outfielder or first baseman that could hit and hit for power, and this is what they potentially got with Snider. Now that Snider is the team's starting right fielder, Garrett Jones can move to first base and possibly platoon with Casey McGehee, and the team won't have to start Alex Presley and his .651 OPS anymore in the outfield. This trade will only improve the offense, and could add a lot more power to the lineup.
In no way am I trying to bash Brad Lincoln in this post, I'm just saying that relievers are generally overvalued, and that the team got a great return in this trade. Lincoln is a great guy and will be missed, but the Pirates have options in AAA that could make the team better right now. It is likely that one of these players is called up today to take the bullpen spot that Lincoln left. My guess is that it will be Bryan Morris, who has been dominant out of the 'pen. It could also be lefty Doug Slaten, but they would have to make a move on the 40-man roster for that to happen.
The Pirates traded a reliever for a player that could be a All-Star in the Lincoln-Snider trade. Lincoln appeared in less than 30% of the Pirates' games, and Snider could be an everyday game-changer with his hitting ability. Not much bad can be said about this trade, and it could very well become one of the best trades that General Manager Neal Huntington makes for the Pirates.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below
WAR is a great stat to determine a player's overall value. McCutchen's WAR this year is 5.4, which is second in the MLB behind Mike Trout (6.2). Lincoln's WAR this year is at 1.2, while Snider's WAR is at 0.2. Yes, Lincoln's is much higher, but Snider only has 36 at bats this season in ten games. Also, as a reliever, Lincoln's WAR is almost as high as it will ever be. Aroldis Chapman, now the Red's closer, is having an incredible season out of the bullpen, and his WAR is at 2.4. That number is greatly increased because he has 21 saves now, and would be lower if he remained in a set-up role. Personally, I don't think Lincoln will ever have a season like Chapman is having, and I doubt Lincoln's WAR will ever reach 2.0 unless he is made a starter or reliever. To put that in perspective, an average major league starter's (position player) WAR is about 2.0. So, at his peak value, Lincoln has the same worth as an average major league starter. With Snider, you have a guy that could be a perennial All-Star candidate, with Baseball-Reference putting an All-Star's WAR at 5+. It can definitely be argued that Snider won't be an All-Star, but even if he is just an average starter, he will probably still provide more value than Lincoln ever will as a reliever.
Another stat that I want to throw out there is 27.5%. That is the percentage of games that Brad Lincoln has appeared in for the Pirates. When coming out of the bullpen, Lincoln averages 1.55 innings. So, for less than 30% of the Pirates games, Brad Lincoln came in and pitched an average of less than two innings. In exchange for this, the Pirates got a guy that could play every inning of every game, and who could do very well.
There is the option that Brad Lincoln could start for the Blue Jays, which could increase his value. But, how would he perform in the rotation? In five starts this year, Lincoln had a 6.08 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and only compiled 23.2 innings. That's less than five innings a start. If he struggled this much in the NL Central, how is he going to have more success in the AL East, the best division in baseball? An example of the difference between these two divisions: A.J. Burnett had an ERA of 5.15 in his last year in the AL East, one year after he posted a 5.26 ERA. Now, as a 35 year old in the NL Central, Burnett has a 3.52 ERA. It is doubtful that Lincoln will become an above average starter, as he is 27 years-old and moving to a much stronger division, so the only way he could increase his value is moving to the closer role.
Now on to Travis Snider. I feel the same thing would apply to Snider, moving from the AL East to the NL Central. He's going to face easier pitching in his new division, which could easily better his production. He's also moving into PNC Park, where the short deck in right field could help his power numbers moving forward.
Here is something we can't forget, just three years ago in 2009, Snider was the #6 prospect in all of baseball. He has yet to be given more than 300 at bats in one season at the major league level. When he was given 298 at-bats as a 22 year-old, he hit 14 home runs. Now let's look at his AAA numbers. In 183 games and 696 at bats, Snider has a batting line of .333/.412/.565, good for a .976 OPS, along with 56 doubles, 33 home runs, 155 RBI, and 17 stolen bases. Even though he played in the traditionally hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, those numbers are still outstanding. This season, in 56 games and 209 at bats at AAA, Snider has a line of .335/.423/.598, with a 1.021 OPS, 13 home runs, and 56 RBI. This is where I would like to remind everyone that Travis Snider is 24 years-old. He is only eight months older than Starling Marte, and is a year younger than Pedro Alvarez.
The Pirates needed an outfielder or first baseman that could hit and hit for power, and this is what they potentially got with Snider. Now that Snider is the team's starting right fielder, Garrett Jones can move to first base and possibly platoon with Casey McGehee, and the team won't have to start Alex Presley and his .651 OPS anymore in the outfield. This trade will only improve the offense, and could add a lot more power to the lineup.
In no way am I trying to bash Brad Lincoln in this post, I'm just saying that relievers are generally overvalued, and that the team got a great return in this trade. Lincoln is a great guy and will be missed, but the Pirates have options in AAA that could make the team better right now. It is likely that one of these players is called up today to take the bullpen spot that Lincoln left. My guess is that it will be Bryan Morris, who has been dominant out of the 'pen. It could also be lefty Doug Slaten, but they would have to make a move on the 40-man roster for that to happen.
The Pirates traded a reliever for a player that could be a All-Star in the Lincoln-Snider trade. Lincoln appeared in less than 30% of the Pirates' games, and Snider could be an everyday game-changer with his hitting ability. Not much bad can be said about this trade, and it could very well become one of the best trades that General Manager Neal Huntington makes for the Pirates.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below
Monday, July 30, 2012
The Pirates Don't Need To Trade For A Reliever
The Pirates have recently been said to have interest in lefty reliever Jose Mijares of Kansas City, who is having a great year with a 2.15 ERA in 37.2 innings. Lefties are hitting only .213 against him with a .560 OPS, but righties are hitting .283 with a .807 OPS, so he is better served as a lefty specialist. But, the Pirates really do not need to acquire another reliever.
While Mijares would be a great addition to an already strong bullpen, that move is not necessary, and neither is a deal for any reliever. If the Pirates need a reliever, they can just go to their very strong AAA team to find options. Here are the players the Pirates have in their highest minor league affiliate and on the 40-man roster that could come up an help in the bullpen:
LHP Jeff Locke: Locke is having a great year in AAA as a starter, with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. If needed, Locke could also come up and fill in as a good back of the rotation starter this year, especially if Correia is dealt. He has good pitches, with his fastball sitting in the low 90's with good control. In the bullpen, there's a good chance he can increase his velocity to the low-mid 90's. He could be used in the bullpen this year, but his future is as a starter in the majors. He was my #7 prospect in my top 30 prospects before the trading deadline.
RHP Daniel McCutchen: McCutchen was one of the most frequent relievers for the Pirates last year, putting up a decent season in 73 appearances. He was sent to AAA to begin the year because he had an option left, while other relievers he was in competition with didn't. He wouldn't be the first option up from this list, as he is not having a great season, but not bad either. He has a 3.64 ERA in 25 appearances, along with a 1.29 WHIP.
RHP Bryan Morris: Morris was called up for about a day earlier this season, then immediately sent down without ever getting a chance to appear in a major league game. Morris is the best option out of anyone on this list, and he has the potential to be a future closer in the MLB. He has a mid 90's fastball with a great curveball, a two pitch mix that can be very deadly out of the bullpen. He has a 2.54 ERA and 1.08 WHIP this year out of the 'pen, with good strikeout and walk numbers. Morris was my #13 prospect in the most recent rankings.
RHP Duke Welker: Since being moved to the bullpen, Welker has done a lot of good for the Pirates' affiliates. After being promoted to AAA part way through this year, Welker has a 2.42 ERA in 26 innings, with a 1.31 WHIP. His WHIP is that high because of a 5.9 BB/9, but he is also letting up only 5.9 Hits/9 as well. Welker possesses an upper 90's fastball, and good be a good addition to the bullpen this year or in the future.
LHP Justin Wilson: Need a lefty reliever? Justin Wilson should be the first option. Wilson has great stuff to work with, with great natural movement that makes his pitches very hard to hit. After struggling with his control last year, the Pirates moved Wilson to the AAA bullpen to end the season, where he displayed an upper 90's fastball that could hit 99 MPH. With an upper 90's fastball and great secondary pitches, Wilson could be a great late inning reliever, even with below average-average control. Wilson has a 4.04 ERA as a starter in AAA, with a 6.4 Hits/9, and can be a very good starter when his control is working. He could be another option for a spot start.
The Pirates are in contention and a good bullpen is vital to a playoff team. But, the Pirates don't need to look outside the organization to find an upgrade to an already great bullpen. General Manager Neal Huntington has done a great job over the past few years of putting together cheap bullpens that are always above average, and he hasn't had to trade for any upgrades for the bullpen. So, why should he start now with so many good options that are already in the organization? The team doesn't need to trade away another prospect just to get a reliever, and should use their prospects to get a hitter. If the Pirates really do want or need another reliever, the answer is just one promotion to the majors away.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
While Mijares would be a great addition to an already strong bullpen, that move is not necessary, and neither is a deal for any reliever. If the Pirates need a reliever, they can just go to their very strong AAA team to find options. Here are the players the Pirates have in their highest minor league affiliate and on the 40-man roster that could come up an help in the bullpen:
LHP Jeff Locke: Locke is having a great year in AAA as a starter, with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. If needed, Locke could also come up and fill in as a good back of the rotation starter this year, especially if Correia is dealt. He has good pitches, with his fastball sitting in the low 90's with good control. In the bullpen, there's a good chance he can increase his velocity to the low-mid 90's. He could be used in the bullpen this year, but his future is as a starter in the majors. He was my #7 prospect in my top 30 prospects before the trading deadline.
RHP Daniel McCutchen: McCutchen was one of the most frequent relievers for the Pirates last year, putting up a decent season in 73 appearances. He was sent to AAA to begin the year because he had an option left, while other relievers he was in competition with didn't. He wouldn't be the first option up from this list, as he is not having a great season, but not bad either. He has a 3.64 ERA in 25 appearances, along with a 1.29 WHIP.
RHP Bryan Morris: Morris was called up for about a day earlier this season, then immediately sent down without ever getting a chance to appear in a major league game. Morris is the best option out of anyone on this list, and he has the potential to be a future closer in the MLB. He has a mid 90's fastball with a great curveball, a two pitch mix that can be very deadly out of the bullpen. He has a 2.54 ERA and 1.08 WHIP this year out of the 'pen, with good strikeout and walk numbers. Morris was my #13 prospect in the most recent rankings.
RHP Duke Welker: Since being moved to the bullpen, Welker has done a lot of good for the Pirates' affiliates. After being promoted to AAA part way through this year, Welker has a 2.42 ERA in 26 innings, with a 1.31 WHIP. His WHIP is that high because of a 5.9 BB/9, but he is also letting up only 5.9 Hits/9 as well. Welker possesses an upper 90's fastball, and good be a good addition to the bullpen this year or in the future.
LHP Justin Wilson: Need a lefty reliever? Justin Wilson should be the first option. Wilson has great stuff to work with, with great natural movement that makes his pitches very hard to hit. After struggling with his control last year, the Pirates moved Wilson to the AAA bullpen to end the season, where he displayed an upper 90's fastball that could hit 99 MPH. With an upper 90's fastball and great secondary pitches, Wilson could be a great late inning reliever, even with below average-average control. Wilson has a 4.04 ERA as a starter in AAA, with a 6.4 Hits/9, and can be a very good starter when his control is working. He could be another option for a spot start.
The Pirates are in contention and a good bullpen is vital to a playoff team. But, the Pirates don't need to look outside the organization to find an upgrade to an already great bullpen. General Manager Neal Huntington has done a great job over the past few years of putting together cheap bullpens that are always above average, and he hasn't had to trade for any upgrades for the bullpen. So, why should he start now with so many good options that are already in the organization? The team doesn't need to trade away another prospect just to get a reliever, and should use their prospects to get a hitter. If the Pirates really do want or need another reliever, the answer is just one promotion to the majors away.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
Sunday, July 29, 2012
The Pirates Should Make a Trade, But Not With Marte
With the trading deadline approaching in two days, there are a lot of rumors going around the league, and the Pirates are included in a lot of these rumors. It is well known the Pirates are looking for an outfielder or first baseman, and they have been linked to names such as Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence, and Shin-Soo Choo. It wouldn't take much to get Victorino in a trade, but a trade for Pence and Choo will require a good package of players to complete the deal. Recently, Rob Biertempfel reported that the Pirates are "checking in" on Choo, and that the Pirates would likely have to part with Marte in order to complete that deal. That would not be a good deal for the Pirates.
At this point, no player is worth it to part with outfielder Starling Marte. Pence and Choo will both probably provide better offense down the stretch this year than Marte will, but even though the Pirates are on the verge of a winning season for the first time since 1992, the team still has to look to the future. Marte will be under team control for at least the next six years, while both Pence and Choo will be gone after next season. Which would you rather have, one and a half years of good production from Pence or Choo, or six years of possible great production from Marte? To me, the obvious answer is the six years of Marte. And, it may not take just Marte to acquire Pence or Choo. It may take another good prospect, someone like Jeff Locke or Gregory Polanco. That kind of deal is not worth one and a half years of a player who will put up a .800-.850 OPS.
After saying this, I still believe the Pirates should go out and get a good hitter. The Phillies have shown a lot of interest in reliever Brad Lincoln, so the Pirates should try to work out a deal with him included. If they could acquire Pence for a package that includes Lincoln and another good/decent prospect, then they should do it. Another way the Pirates could acquire a hitter is by dealing Kevin Correia or Joel Hanrahan. Teams that are looking for a veteran back of the rotation starter to sure up than rotation can deal for Correia. Correia is at his highest value right now, so it is the perfect time to trade him. As I stated in my post yesterday, the Pirates should definitely look to trade Joel Hanrahan, as he would bring in one or two major league hitters. If anything, the Astros series has shown that the Pirates need another bat to put the team over the top. The Pirates have the ability to make a trade for a bat without dealing Starling Marte, so they have to take that route.
The Pirates do need offense, and they should try to acquire a good hitter. But, they have to avoid parting with their top hitting prospect Starling Marte. He's too valuable to the team, and he has the ability to be an Andrew McCutchen-lite. Marte could hit for a .300+ average, and his power has really been improving over the last two years, and has the potential to hit for around 20 homers each year. Having Marte and McCutchen next to each other in the outfield for the next six years or so is definitely better to have than Pence or Choo next to McCutchen for one and a half years. A deal has to be made, but Marte has to be kept.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
At this point, no player is worth it to part with outfielder Starling Marte. Pence and Choo will both probably provide better offense down the stretch this year than Marte will, but even though the Pirates are on the verge of a winning season for the first time since 1992, the team still has to look to the future. Marte will be under team control for at least the next six years, while both Pence and Choo will be gone after next season. Which would you rather have, one and a half years of good production from Pence or Choo, or six years of possible great production from Marte? To me, the obvious answer is the six years of Marte. And, it may not take just Marte to acquire Pence or Choo. It may take another good prospect, someone like Jeff Locke or Gregory Polanco. That kind of deal is not worth one and a half years of a player who will put up a .800-.850 OPS.
After saying this, I still believe the Pirates should go out and get a good hitter. The Phillies have shown a lot of interest in reliever Brad Lincoln, so the Pirates should try to work out a deal with him included. If they could acquire Pence for a package that includes Lincoln and another good/decent prospect, then they should do it. Another way the Pirates could acquire a hitter is by dealing Kevin Correia or Joel Hanrahan. Teams that are looking for a veteran back of the rotation starter to sure up than rotation can deal for Correia. Correia is at his highest value right now, so it is the perfect time to trade him. As I stated in my post yesterday, the Pirates should definitely look to trade Joel Hanrahan, as he would bring in one or two major league hitters. If anything, the Astros series has shown that the Pirates need another bat to put the team over the top. The Pirates have the ability to make a trade for a bat without dealing Starling Marte, so they have to take that route.
The Pirates do need offense, and they should try to acquire a good hitter. But, they have to avoid parting with their top hitting prospect Starling Marte. He's too valuable to the team, and he has the ability to be an Andrew McCutchen-lite. Marte could hit for a .300+ average, and his power has really been improving over the last two years, and has the potential to hit for around 20 homers each year. Having Marte and McCutchen next to each other in the outfield for the next six years or so is definitely better to have than Pence or Choo next to McCutchen for one and a half years. A deal has to be made, but Marte has to be kept.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
Saturday, July 28, 2012
The Pirates Should Trade Joel Hanrahan
Written by: Michael Mawhinney
Over the past two years, Pirates' pitcher Joel Hanrahan has emerged as one of the top closers in the MLB, and has earned two All-Star nods. After a 2011 season where he saved 40 games, Hanrahan now leads the MLB in 2012 with 31 saves. He has a 2.18 ERA, 5.2 Hits/9, and a strikeout rate of 10.2 K/9. Because of these stats and his performance, Joel Hanrahan should be traded.
The idea of Hanrahan getting traded will surely make a lot of Pirates fans very upset, as they have come to love "Hammer time" and his unique beard and hair. He has done a great job for the Pirates and deserves a lot of the credit that he has been giving, but the fact is, closers are VERY overvalued. Tom Singer of MLB.com reports that there are elite teams willing to give "two major league bats" for Hanrahan. Whenever you can get two major league hitters for a reliever, it's generally a great deal. The Pirates need another bat if they want to have a chance at the NL pennant, and including Hanrahan in a trade could really increase the return that the Pirates receive. Four potential suitors for Hanrahan that could use a closer in their playoff race are the Red Sox, White Sox, Blue Jays, and Angels. In a trade for Hanrahan, the Pirates could also look for top prospects instead of major league hitters, as closers can bring in a good haul that way, as well. Here's a quick look at what these teams could offer:
Red Sox: Prospects: SS Xander Bogaerts, CF Jackie Bradley, C Blake Swihart
Bogaerts is 19 year old shortstop in high-A, with an .840 OPS. He has a lot of power potential, shown by 14 home runs this year, and has made good contact as well, with a .287 average this year. However, it seems unlikely he will stay at short. Keith Law has him as the #29 prospect in his mid-season rankings, so it is unlikely the Red Sox would part with him. Bradley is a very good defensive center fielder, and he has hit well this year, with an average .338 across high-A and AA, along with a .956 OPS. With this production, it also seems unlikely he is traded, but he is more likely to be dealt than Bogaerts. Swihart is an athletic catcher that needs more work at that position, but as a first round pick in 2011, he still has a lot of time to become the two way catcher he has the potential to be.
Major Leaguers: OF Ryan Kalish, OF Cody Ross
Kalish is a 24 year old former top prospect. He's been terrible this year in the majors, with a .488 OPS, but has hit well at AAA so far. Ross, who was a playoff hero for the Giants in 2010, has 16 home runs this year, but may cost more than just Joel Hanrahan.
White Sox: Prospects: The White Sox minor league system is horrible, and I do not suggest we trade for any of their prospects as we could get much more for Hanrahan.
Major Leaguers: After further review, the White Sox really have nothing to offer us. Cross them off as a potential trade partner. I do not know how they are winning right now, other than their division is not good at all.
Blue Jays: Prospects: C Travis D'Arnaud, RHP Aaron Sanchez, CF Jake Marisnick
Unlike the White Sox, the Blue Jays have a very good farm system. D'Arnaud, brother of Pirates' minor league Chase D'arnaud, is one of the top prospects in baseball, and has a .975 OPS in AAA this year as a 23 year old. But, D'arnaud is blocked in the MLB at catcher by J.P. Arencibia. The Blue Jays are obviously going to be very resistant to the idea of trading D'arnaud, but offering Joel Hanrahan and another good prospect or two like Jeff Locke, Justin Wilson, or even a lower level guy like Nick Kingham could turn out to be a great deal for the Pirates, who lack a good long term option at catcher if Tony Sanchez doesn't step up. Aaron Sanchez has a great arm, striking out over ten guys per nine innings, but also has a lot of control problems. He isn't letting up a lot of hits, and he would be a great addition to the system. Marisnick has the potential to be a five tool player, but has struggled so far in his jump to AA as a 21 year old. But after a great 2011 in low-A where he put up a .888 OPS, he is still a good trade option.
Major Leaguers: 1B Adam Lind, SS Yunel Escobar, OF Travis Snider
Any deal that involves a struggling player in the AL East who has had success in the past is very intriguing to me. This is because the AL East is possibly the best division in baseball, and the NL Central is one of the worst. As we've seen with A.J. Burnett, a player who struggled in the AL East can do great things with a move to the NL Central. Adam Lind has had three straight years coming into 2012 of 23 or more home runs, but has struggled with his bat this year. However, he would be an improvement over Casey McGehee offensively at first, and that would allow Jones to move to the outfield, where offense outside of McCutchen has been bad. Escobar is a decent hitting shortstop, but his attitude has caused some potential suitors to back off, as he can really hurt the clubhouse. Snider is a former top prospect who could also benefit from a move to the NL Central. He is 24 years old an has a career .976 OPS in AAA.
Angels: Prospects: RHP Garrett Richards, RHP John Hellweg, 1B C.J. Cron
Richards, who has started eight games in the majors this year and has a 3.91 ERA, has a plus fastball that he throws at 94-100 MPH, along with a good slider and good changeup. He doesn't strike out a lot of batters, and his control has been bad in his time in the majors. The Angels are very unlikely to deal Richards, as they did not include him in the Zack Greinke deal. Hellweg is a huge righty with a plus fastball, but control has been a major issue. He also went from striking out 11.4 batters per nine innings last year to striking out only 6.6 per nine this year, which could be a red flag. Cron is a big power hitter who is putting up a good average this year at .292, but he almost never walks, with a 2.7% walk rate. A plus side to that rate is that his strikeout rate is also very low, at 12.2%, which is amazing for a power hitter. C.J. Cron would be the best and most likely option here to me, but I seem to like him more as a prospect than others do.
Major Leaguers: OF Peter Bourjos
Bourjos would be a good pick up for Hanrahan, and a deal could probably get done between the two teams, as the Angels may be looking to trade him from their crowded outfield. Bourjos is a great defensive centerfielder, far better than McCutchen and better than Marte two, but would probably play left and move Marte to right if the Pirates acquired him. His bat is the wild card here, and could be a great boost to the Pirates if he hit around .280 and continued his amazing defense.
The Blue Jays and Angels seem to match up better with the Pirates, especially in the Bourjos case. I would love to see a deal made to get D'Arnaud, but that would probably never happen. I think Travis Snider would be a good guy to trade for, as he was recently one of the best prospects in all of baseball, and hasn't really been given a chance to play everyday in the majors and prove himself. A straight up Hanrahan for Snider trade would make sense for both clubs, and the Pirates may be able to get even more out of that deal.
If the Pirates could get any player that is or could be a good Major League starting pitcher or hitter, then they have to make that deal. Hanrahan pitches for one inning in about 43% of the Pirates' games, so getting a good everyday player would be well worth it. Also, the Pirates have guys that can fill in for Hanrahan and succeed as the closer. Brad Lincoln, Jason Grilli, and even Bryan Morris would all be good or better major league closers in my eyes right now. Personally, I think Lincoln would do even better than Hanrahan is doing. Also, there have been rumors that the Phillies would give the Pirates Shane Victorino in exchange for Brad Lincoln. Hanrahan's value is almost certainly much higher than Lincoln's, so just think what we could get for Hanrahan.
Playoff teams do need a good closer that can come in and shut the door in close games, but Hanrahan should be traded as his value will never be higher, and the Pirates have guys that can fill in as the closer. There are a lot of good trade options out there for the Pirates and Hanrahan, and the Pirates have to take full advantage of the value that Hanrahan could bring.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
Over the past two years, Pirates' pitcher Joel Hanrahan has emerged as one of the top closers in the MLB, and has earned two All-Star nods. After a 2011 season where he saved 40 games, Hanrahan now leads the MLB in 2012 with 31 saves. He has a 2.18 ERA, 5.2 Hits/9, and a strikeout rate of 10.2 K/9. Because of these stats and his performance, Joel Hanrahan should be traded.
The idea of Hanrahan getting traded will surely make a lot of Pirates fans very upset, as they have come to love "Hammer time" and his unique beard and hair. He has done a great job for the Pirates and deserves a lot of the credit that he has been giving, but the fact is, closers are VERY overvalued. Tom Singer of MLB.com reports that there are elite teams willing to give "two major league bats" for Hanrahan. Whenever you can get two major league hitters for a reliever, it's generally a great deal. The Pirates need another bat if they want to have a chance at the NL pennant, and including Hanrahan in a trade could really increase the return that the Pirates receive. Four potential suitors for Hanrahan that could use a closer in their playoff race are the Red Sox, White Sox, Blue Jays, and Angels. In a trade for Hanrahan, the Pirates could also look for top prospects instead of major league hitters, as closers can bring in a good haul that way, as well. Here's a quick look at what these teams could offer:
Red Sox: Prospects: SS Xander Bogaerts, CF Jackie Bradley, C Blake Swihart
Bogaerts is 19 year old shortstop in high-A, with an .840 OPS. He has a lot of power potential, shown by 14 home runs this year, and has made good contact as well, with a .287 average this year. However, it seems unlikely he will stay at short. Keith Law has him as the #29 prospect in his mid-season rankings, so it is unlikely the Red Sox would part with him. Bradley is a very good defensive center fielder, and he has hit well this year, with an average .338 across high-A and AA, along with a .956 OPS. With this production, it also seems unlikely he is traded, but he is more likely to be dealt than Bogaerts. Swihart is an athletic catcher that needs more work at that position, but as a first round pick in 2011, he still has a lot of time to become the two way catcher he has the potential to be.
Major Leaguers: OF Ryan Kalish, OF Cody Ross
Kalish is a 24 year old former top prospect. He's been terrible this year in the majors, with a .488 OPS, but has hit well at AAA so far. Ross, who was a playoff hero for the Giants in 2010, has 16 home runs this year, but may cost more than just Joel Hanrahan.
White Sox: Prospects: The White Sox minor league system is horrible, and I do not suggest we trade for any of their prospects as we could get much more for Hanrahan.
Major Leaguers: After further review, the White Sox really have nothing to offer us. Cross them off as a potential trade partner. I do not know how they are winning right now, other than their division is not good at all.
Blue Jays: Prospects: C Travis D'Arnaud, RHP Aaron Sanchez, CF Jake Marisnick
Unlike the White Sox, the Blue Jays have a very good farm system. D'Arnaud, brother of Pirates' minor league Chase D'arnaud, is one of the top prospects in baseball, and has a .975 OPS in AAA this year as a 23 year old. But, D'arnaud is blocked in the MLB at catcher by J.P. Arencibia. The Blue Jays are obviously going to be very resistant to the idea of trading D'arnaud, but offering Joel Hanrahan and another good prospect or two like Jeff Locke, Justin Wilson, or even a lower level guy like Nick Kingham could turn out to be a great deal for the Pirates, who lack a good long term option at catcher if Tony Sanchez doesn't step up. Aaron Sanchez has a great arm, striking out over ten guys per nine innings, but also has a lot of control problems. He isn't letting up a lot of hits, and he would be a great addition to the system. Marisnick has the potential to be a five tool player, but has struggled so far in his jump to AA as a 21 year old. But after a great 2011 in low-A where he put up a .888 OPS, he is still a good trade option.
Major Leaguers: 1B Adam Lind, SS Yunel Escobar, OF Travis Snider
Any deal that involves a struggling player in the AL East who has had success in the past is very intriguing to me. This is because the AL East is possibly the best division in baseball, and the NL Central is one of the worst. As we've seen with A.J. Burnett, a player who struggled in the AL East can do great things with a move to the NL Central. Adam Lind has had three straight years coming into 2012 of 23 or more home runs, but has struggled with his bat this year. However, he would be an improvement over Casey McGehee offensively at first, and that would allow Jones to move to the outfield, where offense outside of McCutchen has been bad. Escobar is a decent hitting shortstop, but his attitude has caused some potential suitors to back off, as he can really hurt the clubhouse. Snider is a former top prospect who could also benefit from a move to the NL Central. He is 24 years old an has a career .976 OPS in AAA.
Angels: Prospects: RHP Garrett Richards, RHP John Hellweg, 1B C.J. Cron
Richards, who has started eight games in the majors this year and has a 3.91 ERA, has a plus fastball that he throws at 94-100 MPH, along with a good slider and good changeup. He doesn't strike out a lot of batters, and his control has been bad in his time in the majors. The Angels are very unlikely to deal Richards, as they did not include him in the Zack Greinke deal. Hellweg is a huge righty with a plus fastball, but control has been a major issue. He also went from striking out 11.4 batters per nine innings last year to striking out only 6.6 per nine this year, which could be a red flag. Cron is a big power hitter who is putting up a good average this year at .292, but he almost never walks, with a 2.7% walk rate. A plus side to that rate is that his strikeout rate is also very low, at 12.2%, which is amazing for a power hitter. C.J. Cron would be the best and most likely option here to me, but I seem to like him more as a prospect than others do.
Major Leaguers: OF Peter Bourjos
Bourjos would be a good pick up for Hanrahan, and a deal could probably get done between the two teams, as the Angels may be looking to trade him from their crowded outfield. Bourjos is a great defensive centerfielder, far better than McCutchen and better than Marte two, but would probably play left and move Marte to right if the Pirates acquired him. His bat is the wild card here, and could be a great boost to the Pirates if he hit around .280 and continued his amazing defense.
The Blue Jays and Angels seem to match up better with the Pirates, especially in the Bourjos case. I would love to see a deal made to get D'Arnaud, but that would probably never happen. I think Travis Snider would be a good guy to trade for, as he was recently one of the best prospects in all of baseball, and hasn't really been given a chance to play everyday in the majors and prove himself. A straight up Hanrahan for Snider trade would make sense for both clubs, and the Pirates may be able to get even more out of that deal.
If the Pirates could get any player that is or could be a good Major League starting pitcher or hitter, then they have to make that deal. Hanrahan pitches for one inning in about 43% of the Pirates' games, so getting a good everyday player would be well worth it. Also, the Pirates have guys that can fill in for Hanrahan and succeed as the closer. Brad Lincoln, Jason Grilli, and even Bryan Morris would all be good or better major league closers in my eyes right now. Personally, I think Lincoln would do even better than Hanrahan is doing. Also, there have been rumors that the Phillies would give the Pirates Shane Victorino in exchange for Brad Lincoln. Hanrahan's value is almost certainly much higher than Lincoln's, so just think what we could get for Hanrahan.
Playoff teams do need a good closer that can come in and shut the door in close games, but Hanrahan should be traded as his value will never be higher, and the Pirates have guys that can fill in as the closer. There are a lot of good trade options out there for the Pirates and Hanrahan, and the Pirates have to take full advantage of the value that Hanrahan could bring.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment button below.
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