It's the most exciting day of the year for baseball fans: July 31st. The Trade Deadline. Rumors upon rumors cause excitement (or even distress in some cases) for fans, and many of the General Managers in the majors are sitting by their phones all day after probably not sleeping much for the past week. I'm sure this is what Pirates' GM Neal Huntington has been up to, looking for any deal to upgrade the Pirates' roster right now, as well as keeping the future intact. With this post, I'm going to step into the GM's spot and propose 15 different deals that I would do if given the chance. These ideas will start with trade proposals with those teams considered to be sellers, and move into those who are said to be buyers.
1) Chicago Cubs: SS Javier Baez and 1B Dan Vogelbach for SP Nick Kingham, and the Cubs choice of Tony Sanchez and Reese McGuire, and the choice of Brandon Cumpton and Casey Sadler.
The Cubs have an incredibly talented system, and their future lineup includes Anthony Rizzo at first, a combination of Baez, Starlin Castro, and Addison Russell at second/third/short, and Kris Bryant, Albert Almora, and Jorge Soler in the outfield. That leaves out top prospect Arismendy Alcantara, who can play in the middle infield and the outfield. This theoretically makes someone available, and I believe Baez is the most likely option. The Cubs most likely have the best minor league system in the game, but they are weak in pitching and catching, and Kingham and Sanchez/McGuire give them long term solutions at those spots. Sanchez would be able to help right away, while McGuire would come up when the Cubs' core of offensive players are reaching their prime. Cumpton/Sadler give the Cubs a solid back end starter, with Cumpton offering more upside. Vogelbach is a big first baseman with some power, and would most likely be blocked with Anthony Rizzo at first, and could provide the Pirates with a solid prospect at the position. Baez would take over at shortstop for now, and the Pirates would be able to platoon Alvarez and Mercer at third, with Josh Harrison also getting starts against lefties and sharing time with Marte/Polanco in the outfield. Or the Pirates could move Alvarez to first and have Harrison/Mercer take over at third.
2) Philadelphia Phillies: SP A.J. Burnett for OF Harold Ramirez
In order for this to happen, the Phillies would have to eat a lot of Burnett's contract and the Pirates would want Burnett to assure them he is retiring after this season so they will not have to worry about his vesting option that will likely be over $12 million. Ramirez is a solid outfield prospect in Low-A with a great hit tool and speed, but with the strength of the Pirates current outfield and Josh Bell and Austin Meadows, Ramirez is the definition of an expendable prospect.
3) Philadelphia Phillies: 1B Ryan Howard and basically his entire contract for OF Harold Ramirez
Howard is signed through 2016 for $25 million per year, with a $23 million option for 2017 with a $10 million buyout. If the Phillies pay about $22 million of that per year, if not more, I'd be fine with the still powerful (16 HR this year) Howard taking over the left handed part of the first base platoon. Once again, Ramirez is expendable.
4) Colorado Rockies: SS Troy Tulowitzki for SS Alen Hanson, OF Austin Meadows, SP Nick Kingham, SS Jordy Mercer
Tulo is the best shortstop in the league, and is signed through 2021, which includes a team option for 2021. His contract will be worth $129 million over that span, and with the track record of his health, the Rockies would have to take on some of that contract in the deal. If they took on a good portion, Tulo is the kind of talent you sell the farm for.
5) San Diego Padres: SP Tyson Ross for OF Harold Ramirez, SP Nick Kingham, 1B/OF Andrew Lambo
Ross, who is 27 years old, has a 2.60 ERA in 23 starts this year for the Padres, with a 3.12 FIP and a 9.1 K/9 rate, and he doesn't become a free agent until 2018. Ramirez gives them a solid outfield prospect, Kingham could step into their rotation very soon, and Lambo would be inserted in their lineup right away, a lineup that has been one of the worst in major league history.
6) Boston Red Sox: RP Andrew Miller for SP Brandon Cumpton and OF Harold Ramirez
You can really get a gage on how expendable I think Ramirez is, as he's included in another trade here. I don't believe in trading top prospects for relievers, and I won't stray from that in this trade proposal. Miller has been one of the best lefty relievers in the majors this year, with a 2.34 ERA in 50 appearances with a 14.7 K/9. However, he becomes a free agent at the end of the season, so a big prospect would be too steep a price for the Pirates. Cumpton could be a solid back end starter for the Red Sox in the future, and Ramirez could be a starter in the future. I don't think this would be enough to get Miller, but that's all I would give up for a two month reliever rental.
7) Boston Red Sox: SP John Lackey, 3B Will Middlebrooks, and SS Deven Marrero for SS Alen Hanson, SP Nick Kingham, OF Jose Tabata, and OF Barrett Barnes
Lackey would be placed behind Liriano and Cole in the Pirates rotation, and with a 46.9% ground ball rate, he would fit nicely into the Pirates system and could improve on his 3.60 ERA. Middlebrooks was recently a good prospect, but has struggled greatly over the past two years, with a .629 OPS in 21 games in the majors, and a .677 OPS in the minors this year in 100 at bats. However, he is still young enough to turn it back around, and would be an infinitely times better bench option than Michael Martinez. Hard core Pirates fans may remember Marrero as the college shortstop who couldn't hit that the Pirates were heavily tied to in the 2012 draft. Well, it turns out he can hit a little, with a .293 average and .783 OPS across AA and AAA this season at 23 years old. He is not as good as a prospect as Alen Hanson at short, though he is much better defensively. Nick Kingham gives the Red Sox a potential mid rotation starter for the future with many years of control, and Tabata gives them a bench option this year, or even a starter if needed. Barnes has a high upside in the outfield, with a chance to be a 20 HR/20 SB player in the future, but his injury history has limited him so far. Also, the Red Sox may be hesitant to deal Lackey, as they are always in a position to win in the next season with their budget, and Lackey is only making league minimum next season due to an option that was activated after he spent significant time on the DL due to an elbow injury.
8) Houston Astros: 1B/OF Chris Carter for SP Joely Rodriguez and C Jin-De Jhang
Carter is more likely to strikeout than Pedro Alvarez, but has 21 homers this year and would be a great option off the bench, or even in the first base platoon, as he has an .872 OPS against lefties this season. He still isn't worth much, and SP Joely Rodriguez, a member of the Pirates' 40-man roster, is struggling this season, but still has the upside of a back-end lefty starter. Jin-De Jhang is a catcher who is struggling at high-A, but his has offensive upside and could at least be a backup in the majors if he can hit.
9) Texas Rangers: SP Yu Darvish for OF Austin Meadows, SS Alen Hanson, SP Nick Kingham, OF Harold Ramirez
This will never happen, but I saw about a month ago that the Rangers would listen on Darvish, and with three years left in his contract that total $31 million, which is ridiculously low for his value. This is also a guy you sell the farm for, but I still would want to avoid including top prospect Tyler Glasnow in a deal.
10) Miami Marlins: 3B Colin Moran for SS Alen Hanson
This would not affect either team this year, as it is a talent for talent trade. I'm not as big on Hanson as others are, as I'm not sure he'll hit and there are many doubts about his ability to stick at short. Moran was drafted in 2013 as the 6th overall pick, and could move quickly enough through the system that he could immediately replace Pedro Alvarez at third when Clint Hurdle completes his goal of pushing Pedro to leave the Pirates through free agency in 2016 (or because he's a Scott Boras client, both are equally likely).
11) Tampa Bay Rays: SP David Price for SS Alen Hanson, SP Nick Kingham, and C Reese McGuire
I'm not on board for giving up a huge prospect haul for a year and two months of Price, albeit at an affordable financial cost, and in my eyes, this isn't a huge prospect loss. Price would be the ace of the Pirates for this year and next, and would make them the favorites in the NL Central. As I said previously, I'm not as high on Hanson, but he is still rated as a top prospect in the industry. Kingham gives the Rays a potential 200 inning workhorse who would fit nicely in the middle of a rotation as soon as this September. Similarly to Hanson, I'm not as high on Reese McGuire as others have been. I wasn't high on him heading into the draft last year, and that was due to his questionable bat. He has only a .618 OPS in Low-A this year, but he is one of the top defensive catching prospects in the minors, and that carries a lot of value in this day in age. If the Pirates could sign Russell Martin to an extension, this trade makes even more sense.
12) Los Angeles Dodgers: OF Matt Kemp plus Cash for the Dodgers' choice of OF Josh Bell or SS Alen Hanson, and their choice of C Tony Sanchez and C Reese McGuire
Yes, I'm being serious. Kemp is owed a huge amount of money, $107.5 million to be exact, over the next five years, and the Dodgers do not want to pay all of that for a player they seem to no longer want. If the Pirates end up paying Kemp about $8-10 million per year, this is a deal I would like. Heading into 2012, Kemp was considered possibly the most valuable offensive player in the majors (Trout had yet to spend a full season in the majors heading into that year), and now has a 1.049 OPS over the last month. The Dodgers are looking to deal him, and would be willing to eat some of his contract for a player like Josh Bell or Alen Hanson. Tony Sanchez can step into their major league lineup at least on a part time basis right away, or if they decide on McGuire, they have their potential long term answer behind the plate. This trade would cause a problem however, as it would give the Pirates four outfield options (another reason why the Dodgers want to deal him), and a solution could be a switch to first base for Kemp. He's obviously athletic enough for this move, and would be able to focus more on his hitting when he becomes accustomed to the position. If the Pirates don't think this is possible, have the Dodgers eat more of Kemp's contract and send over Starling Marte instead of Bell or Hanson. For that trade to happen, I would pay Kemp about $5-7 million a year.
13) Kansas City Royals: 3B Mike Moustakas and either 3B Hunter Dozier or SP Sean Manaea for either SP Edinson Volquez or SP Vance Worley, along with RP Jared Hughes
The Royals are looking for starting pitching, and both Volquez and Worely would be upgrades to their rotation. Moustakas, much like Will Middlebrooks, is a former top third base prospect who has struggled at the major league level after some amount of success in their rookie seasons. He has become expendable for the Royals, and could be a nice bench/future corner infield starting option for the Pirates. Volquez/Worley is worth more than Moustakas right now, so the Royals would have to add a prospect, ideally one of Dozier or Manaea, both 2013 draft picks. I would prefer Dozier, but Manaea offers a higher upside. The Pirates would be selling high on Jared Hughes' success this season as they couldn't get a top prospect and Moustakas for just Volquez/Worley. If the Pirates could get it done with Vin Mazzaro instead of Hughes, that would be preferable.
14) Los Angeles Angels: 1B C.J. Cron and 3B Kaleb Cowart for either SP Edinson Volquez or SP Vance Worley and 1B Gaby Sanchez
Cron would give the Pirates their long term answer at first, and the Angels would have another starting option for the pennant race. Gaby Sanchez would step in at first or the DH spot for the Angels, with proven success against left handed pitchers. It may take Ike Davis to get this deal done, which is still a trade that I do, as I'm a big fan of Cron. Cowart was a top prospect, but has struggled these past two seasons in AA, with a .580 and .623 OPS, respectively. At 22 years old, there still is time for him to turn it around and become a potential third baseman of the future for the Pirates.
15) Seattle Mariners: SP Taijuan Walker, 1B/3B D.J. Peterson, 1B Jesus Montero, 2B/SS Nick Franklin for OF Starling Marte, SS Alen Hanson, SP Brandon Cumpton, OF Barrett Barnes
This would be a huge trade, centered around Walker and Marte. Walker is currently pitching in the majors for the Mariners, but is still one of the top prospects in the game, and could push the Pirates over the top in the NL Central with a rotation of Walker, Liriano, Cole, Morton, and Locke. The Pirates would lose Marte and his team friendly contract, but they have Josh Harrison to take over as the starter in left until Josh Bell reaches the majors. The Mariners are looking for an outfielder to help in the Wild Card race, and Marte could be a major boost offensively and defensively. The rest of the deal is basically Peterson, Montero, and Franklin for Hanson, Cumpton, and Barnes, with some excess value from Marte due to his contract. Peterson would become the Pirates' first baseman of the future, although there is a chance he could play third, Nick Franklin becomes the shortstop of the future, and the Pirates hope they can get Montero, the former #3 prospect in baseball with the Yankees, back on track. Hanson is similar to Franklin, and both are similar in value, but Cumpton and Barnes are worth more together than Montero, making the deal fair for both sides.
Hopefully one of these trades get done!
Any questions or comments? Send them to me on twitter @MicMaw. Thanks for reading!
Thursday, July 31, 2014
Thursday, June 5, 2014
2014 MLB Draft Board
It's draft day in the MLB, and for die hard MLB fans it's almost as exciting as a birthday, and sometimes with all the excitement, it can get out of hand (too bad he didn't sign). But in all seriousness, draft day is extremely important for many organizations, as it is their main avenue to infuse their system with quality talent, especially with the small market clubs. This years draft is relatively weak when compared to recent years, with not a lot of "can't miss" talent, rather a lot of raw players that could become All-Stars, but are just as likely to never become productive starters in the majors. The strength of this draft is left handed pitching, as the highest end talent can be found with them, and high school pitching in general should be in abundance at the end of the first round.
This year I will be using the 20-80 scale to provide the upside of the player (Ceiling), and the more conservative/if things don't go as expected outlook of the player (Floor). Many people use the 20-80 scale differently, and here is how I use it for this draft board:
80: Potential top 3-5 player in the game, once in a generation talent.
75: Perennial Cy Young/MVP candidate, top 10 starter in MLB, #1 Starter on any team, top 3 player at their position, middle of the order bat.
70: Cy Young/MVP candidate possible in their prime, consistent All-Star, #1 starter on most teams, middle of the order bat.
65: All-Star regular, top of the rotation upside, #1-2 starter, could contend for Cy Young or MVP in career year, middle of the order bat, .300 hitter or 30 homer hitter.
60: Above average regular, #2-3 starter, 200 inning starter or elite closer, 1-5 hitter in the lineup with good average and/or power, elite defender, possible All-Star.
55: Slightly above average regular, #3-4 starter, innings eater or good closer/elite reliever. Great defender, good hitter without defense, or leadoff/ 4-7 hitter in the lineup.
50: Average regular, #4-5 starter, good reliever, average regular with .280-.290 average or around 20 homers, or a good defender/basestealer.
45: Below average regular/bench option. #5 starter, decent reliever. Bottom of the order hitter or decent defender with little offense, or some power but low average.
40: Bench option/reliever on bad team.
35: AAA player that could see some major league games.
30: May reach AAA, organizational player
25: Tops out at AA, organizational player
20: Never leaves A-ball.
This is my draft board, meaning how I would rank the players and choose my draft picks if I was in the position to make the picks, and this is not a mock draft. I provide brief scouting reports for the first 25 players, then the Ceilings and Floors for the next 25, then continue to rank the top 80 players on my board. Enjoy!
1.) Brady Aiken--LHP--6'4--200--High School
Big lefty with fastball sitting 92-94 and touching 97 with solid command. His curve is an easy plus pitch and his change could end up plus as well, with some saying it could be even better than his curve. Great pitchability and repeatable delivery give him the chance to be a frontline starter.
Ceiling: 70
Floor: 55
2.) Carlos Rodon--LHP--6'4--235--College Junior--NC State
Unique delivery that adds deception, throws his fastball at 91-94, touching 97 with movement. His big breaking slider is a plus-plus pitch that could be the best breaking pitch in the draft, but his changeup is more of an average pitch right now.
Ceiling: 65
Floor: 60
3.) Tyler Kolek--RHP--6'5--250--HS
Could have the best fastball in the draft, sitting mid 90's and frequently hitting triple digits. His curve and slider both have the chance to be above average pitches, or even plus offerings, but his changeup needs to develop. His fastball can get straight and he can lose his command at times, but he has #1 starter potential.
Ceiling: 70
Floor: 50
4.) Alex Jackson--C--R/R--6'2--215--HS
Considered by many to be the best bat in the draft, Jackson has the ability to hit for a good average with plus power in the future. He has a good arm behind the plate with solid pop times, but his receiving skills need work and could cause a shift to one of the corner outfield spots. While his swing can be inconsistent, it should still be enough to provide value at any position.
Ceiling: 65
Floor: 45
5.) Grant Holmes--RHP--6'2--190--HS
Fastball that sits 92-94, but has hit the high 90's and touches 97 deep into games. He pairs that with a plus curve in the low 80's, along with a change that could be plus, as well. There is little to no projection left in his body, but as a polished pitcher out of high school, he has the ceiling of an ace and a relatively low floor.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 50
6.) Michael Conforto--OF--L/R--6'2--217--CJr--Oregon State
He's an on base machine with an OBP of over .500 this spring, and is seen as a relatively safe pick. He can hit for a solid average along with above average power, but may not produce at an All-Star level. Not much of a defender, and he will most likely end up in left field, where he has the ability to hit 30+ homers a year if everything goes right.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 55
7.) Bradley Zimmer--OF--L/R--6'4--185--CJr--San Francisco
Toolys player with nothing that currently stands out, but his swing can generate plus power in the future, and there's still room to add strength in his frame. He's a slightly above average runner and has a good arm in the outfield. There's a chance he could play center, but he'll probably end up in a coerner outfield spot.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 50
8.) Aaron Nola--RHP--6'2--170--CJr--LSU
Considered a safe pick as a pitcher, he has put up great stats but his upside may be limited. Fastball sits 91-93 with good sink and plus command, and his curve and change could both be above average pitches. He reminds me of Danny Hultzen, but a right handed version.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 55
9.) Nick Gordon--SS--L/R--6'2--170--HS
Athletic infielder who possesses good fielding ability and above average speed on the base paths, pointing to the idea that he could be a player similar to his brother Dee Gordon. He makes solid contact, but probably won't have much power in the future. He uses the whole field as a hitter, but his speed and defense are what put him this high on the board.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
10.) Jeff Hoffman--RHP--6'4--185--CJr--East Carolina
Underwent Tommy John Surgery in May, meaning he won't be able to pitch until mid-2015. He had top of the rotation stuff before the injury, and many considered him to be in the mix for the top overall selection. Fastball sits in the mid 90's with a plus curve and the potential for an above average change, as well as a good feel for pitching.
Ceiling: 65
Floor: 45
11.) Touki Toussaint--RHP--6'2--185--HS
Erratic pitcher, but when he's on he has the potential for two 70 or better pitches on the 20-80 scale. His fastball sits in the low 90's, but he has touched 97 in the past. His best pitch could be his mid 70's curveball, which has ridiculous break that make it difficult for both hitters and catchers, and could be the best curve in the class. He's developing a changeup, and command can be a major problem. He has one of the highest ceilings in the draft, but needs to develop a quality changeup and improve his command in order to reach that ceiling.
Ceiling: 65
Floor: 45
12.) Tyler Beede--RHP--6'4--215--CJr--Vanderbilt
A former first round pick in 2011, Beede has been inconsistent in both performance and draft rankings. He has great stuff with a fastball that sits 92-94 and frequently hits the mid 90's, and a plus change and potentially above average curve, but control issues take away from the pitches. He has the upside of a #2 starter, but there is a small chance he ends up in the bullpen if his control doesn't improve.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
13.) Max Pentecost--C--R/R--6'2--190--CJr--Kennesaw State
A great defensive catcher with good arm strength behind the plate, pairing that with solid receiving skills that make him a near lock to stay at the position. He has a short swing that can generate solid contact, but he hasn't produced much power to this point. He could hit for a decent average with the possibility for 15 homers, and also has surprising speed.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 50
14.) Jacob Gatewood--SS--R/R--6'5--180--HS
A big shortstop with plus raw power that could be the best in this draft class, but there are major concerns about his hit tool and swing. He has a strong arm and the athleticism to stay at short, but it is very possible that he ends up at third or in a corner outfield spot. His huge raw power gives him a lot of upside, but the development of the rest of his game will determine how far he can go.
Ceiling: 65
Floor: 40
15.) Sean Newcomb--LHP--6'5--240--CJr--Hartford
Fastball sits 90-94, but hits 96 frequently with an easy delivery. He has the potential for an above average slider, with a curve and a change that should be average pitches. His control can be poor, but a solid four pitch mix make him a good prospect.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 50
16.) Monte Harrison--OF--S/R--6'4--180--HS
Three sport star in high school, and is also a Wide Receiver recruit for Nebraska. He is extremely athletic with plus speed and could be a plus defender in the outfield, as well. He's very raw at the plate, but has the ability to hit for average and above average power. He has great arm strength, and has a very high upside as possibly the best 5-tool prospect in the draft.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 40
17.) Trea Turner--SS--R/R--6'1--170--CJr--NC State
Plus plus speed and is a safe bet to stick at short int he pros. His bat is a question, but he has made consistent contact in the past and could even be a .280-.300 hitter in the future. Power is not part of his game, but as a shortstop who could hit for a good average with 40 stolen base potential, he is a clear first round talent.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
18.) Derek Hill--OF--R/R--6'2--175--HS
An athletic outfielder who has plus speed, running a sub 6.4 60, along with plus defense in centerfield. He's not projected to hit for much power, but 10-12 homers a season is reasonable. His hit tool is also a question mark, but he makes enough contact to hit for a decent average at the professional level.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 40
19.) Kyle Schwarber--C--L/R--6'0--230--CJr--Indiana
Power is the biggest part of his game, with plus raw power but there are potential holes in his swing that could cause high strikeout rates int he future. He could hit for average, but is more likely a .250-.260 hitter with power. There are questions as to whether he can stay behind the plate, and he could end up in a corner outfield spot. He needs to work on the accuracy of his throws as a catcher.
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 50
20.) Kyle Freeland--LHP--6'4--185--CJr--Evansville
Projectable body that could add velocity to his 90-93 MPH fastball that can already reach the mid 90's. His slider can work as an above average pitch, and his change could be slightly above average, as well. He has very good control and has drawn comparisons to Chris Sale.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
21.) Erik Fedde--RHP--6'4--170--CJr--UNLV
Underwent Tommy John Surgery in May, and won't pitch until mid 2015. Sat 91-93 with movement, touching 96 at times before the surgery, but struggled with his command despite low walk totals. He has a potential plus slider along with a change that could be slightly above average. He has a projectable frame that could see in increase in velocity, but he will be 22 by the time he pitches next.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
22.) Michael Gettys--OF--R/R--6'2--205--HS
Very toolsy player with plus speed, plus fielding ability in center, and a plus-plus arm. His bat is a huge question, as he didn't perform well this spring. His swing is solid, allowing him to generate good power in batting practice, but he hasn't made the same consistent hard contact in games. If he would have hit, he could have been a top 10 pick this year.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 35
23.) Brandon Finnegan--LHP--5'11-185--CJr--TCU
Dealt with a shoulder injury at the end of the year, but when healthy he was one of the top performers in the NCAA. Fastball that sits 93-95 that can hit the upper 90's with good control, along with a potentially above average slider/slurve in the low 80's. Could have a slightly above average change, but because of injury and size concerns and great two pitch mix, many see him as a great reliever/closer in the future.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
24.) Luis Ortiz--RHP--6'2--190--HS
A forearm injury raises a lot of concerns for scouts, but still sat 92-95 after the injury. He has hit 97 and has the potential for an above average slider, with the makings of a curve and a change that could be average, along with average command.
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 40
25.) Ti'Quan Forbes--R/R--6'4--170--HS
Raw player that could end up above average across the board. His swing has a hitch in it that will need to be corrected if he can tap into his potential above average power and hit tools. He's very athletic and could stay at short, but could also be a solid fielder in the outfield. He already possesses above average run and arm tools that could play at any position on the diamond.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 30
26.) Derek Fisher--OF--L/R--6'3--210--CJr--Virginia
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 40
27.) A.J. Reed--1B--L/L--6'4--245--CJr--Kentucky
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 50
28.) Braxton Davidson--OF--L/L--6'3--215--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 35
29.) Justus Sheffield--LHP--6'1--180--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
30.) Scott Blewett--RHP--6'6--210--HS
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 35
31.) Jake Bukauskus--RHP--5'11--180--HS
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
32.) Mac Marshall--LHP--6'2--180--HS
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 40
33.) Alex Blandino--3B--L/R--6'0--190--CJr--Stanford
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 50
34.) Casey Gillaspie--1B--S/L--6'4--230--CJr--Wichita State
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
35.) Forrest Wall--2B--L/R--6'1--180--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
36.) Garrett Fulunchek--RHP--6'4--185--HS
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 30
37.) Spencer Adams--RHP--6'4--180--HS
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 40
38.) Foster Griffin--LHP--6'5--190--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 40
39.) Kodi Medeiros--LHP--6'0--185--HS
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 40
40.) Nick Burdi--RHP--6'3--220--CJr--Louisville
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 30
41.) Spencer Turnbull--RHP--6'3--195--CJr--Alabama
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 40
42.) Jacob Lindgren--LHP--6'0--190--CJr--Mississippi State
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
43.) Michael Chavis--3B--R/R--6'0--185--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
44.) Sean Reid-Foley--RHP--6'2--210--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 40
45.) Jakson Reetz--C--R/R--6'1--195--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 30
46.) Alex Verdugo--LHP--6'1--190--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
47.) Cameron Varga--RHP--6'3--205--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 40
48.) Michael Kopech--RHP--6'4--195--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
49.) Gareth Morgan--OF--R/R--6'4--210--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 30
50.) Chris Ellis--RHP--6'5--205--CJr--Ole Miss
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
51.) Mike Papi--OF--L/R--6'3--210--CJr--Virginia
52.) Marcus Wilson--OF--R/R--6'3--170--HS
53.) Keith Weisenberg--RHP--6'4--185--HS
54.) Mitch Keller--RHP--6'3--195--HS
55.) Dylan Cease--RHP--6'2--175--HS
56.) Bobby Bradley--1B--L/R--6'1--225--HS
57.) Zech Lemond--RHP--6'3--175--CJr--Rice
58.) Matt Chapman--3B--R/R--6'2--205--CJr--Cal State Fullerton
59.) Matthew Railey--OF--L/L--5'11-195--HS
60.) Dylan Davis--OF--R/R--6'0--200--CJr--Oregon State
61.) J.D. Davis--1B--R/R--6'3--215--CJr--Cal State Fullerton
62.) Matt Imhof--LHP--6'5--220--CJr--Cal Poly
63.) Luke Weaver--RHP--6'2--170--CJr--Florida State
64.) Jack Flaherty--RHP/3B--6'3--190--HS
65.) Daniel Gossett--RHP--6'1--175--CJr--Clemson
66.) Jake Stinnett--RHP--6'4--205--CSr--Maryland
67.) Milton Ramos--SS--R/R--6'2--165--HS
68.) Sam Travis--1B--R/R--6'0--205--CJr--Indiana
69.) Jaren Kendell--OF--L/R--5'10--175--HS
70.) Chase Vallot--C--R/R--6'1--205--HS
71.) Cody Reed--LHP--6'3--260--HS
72.) Bryce Montes De Oca--RHP--6'7--265--HS
73.) Carson Sands--LHP--6'3--200--HS
74.) Taylor Sparks--3B--R/R--6'4--210--CJr--UC Irvine
75.) Grant Hockin--RHP--6'3--195--HS
76.) Cole Tucker--SS--S/R--6'3--165--HS
77.) Trey Supak--RHP--6'5--210--HS
78.) Brett Graves--RHP--6'1--190--CJr--Missouri
79.) Chris Oliver--RHP--6'4--185--CJr--Arkansas
80.) Nick Howard--RHP--6'3--215--CJr--Virginia
If you would like me to go into more depth on a player, just tweet @MicMaw, and I will provide you with any info you may need.
This year I will be using the 20-80 scale to provide the upside of the player (Ceiling), and the more conservative/if things don't go as expected outlook of the player (Floor). Many people use the 20-80 scale differently, and here is how I use it for this draft board:
80: Potential top 3-5 player in the game, once in a generation talent.
75: Perennial Cy Young/MVP candidate, top 10 starter in MLB, #1 Starter on any team, top 3 player at their position, middle of the order bat.
70: Cy Young/MVP candidate possible in their prime, consistent All-Star, #1 starter on most teams, middle of the order bat.
65: All-Star regular, top of the rotation upside, #1-2 starter, could contend for Cy Young or MVP in career year, middle of the order bat, .300 hitter or 30 homer hitter.
60: Above average regular, #2-3 starter, 200 inning starter or elite closer, 1-5 hitter in the lineup with good average and/or power, elite defender, possible All-Star.
55: Slightly above average regular, #3-4 starter, innings eater or good closer/elite reliever. Great defender, good hitter without defense, or leadoff/ 4-7 hitter in the lineup.
50: Average regular, #4-5 starter, good reliever, average regular with .280-.290 average or around 20 homers, or a good defender/basestealer.
45: Below average regular/bench option. #5 starter, decent reliever. Bottom of the order hitter or decent defender with little offense, or some power but low average.
40: Bench option/reliever on bad team.
35: AAA player that could see some major league games.
30: May reach AAA, organizational player
25: Tops out at AA, organizational player
20: Never leaves A-ball.
This is my draft board, meaning how I would rank the players and choose my draft picks if I was in the position to make the picks, and this is not a mock draft. I provide brief scouting reports for the first 25 players, then the Ceilings and Floors for the next 25, then continue to rank the top 80 players on my board. Enjoy!
1.) Brady Aiken--LHP--6'4--200--High School
Big lefty with fastball sitting 92-94 and touching 97 with solid command. His curve is an easy plus pitch and his change could end up plus as well, with some saying it could be even better than his curve. Great pitchability and repeatable delivery give him the chance to be a frontline starter.
Ceiling: 70
Floor: 55
2.) Carlos Rodon--LHP--6'4--235--College Junior--NC State
Unique delivery that adds deception, throws his fastball at 91-94, touching 97 with movement. His big breaking slider is a plus-plus pitch that could be the best breaking pitch in the draft, but his changeup is more of an average pitch right now.
Ceiling: 65
Floor: 60
3.) Tyler Kolek--RHP--6'5--250--HS
Could have the best fastball in the draft, sitting mid 90's and frequently hitting triple digits. His curve and slider both have the chance to be above average pitches, or even plus offerings, but his changeup needs to develop. His fastball can get straight and he can lose his command at times, but he has #1 starter potential.
Ceiling: 70
Floor: 50
4.) Alex Jackson--C--R/R--6'2--215--HS
Considered by many to be the best bat in the draft, Jackson has the ability to hit for a good average with plus power in the future. He has a good arm behind the plate with solid pop times, but his receiving skills need work and could cause a shift to one of the corner outfield spots. While his swing can be inconsistent, it should still be enough to provide value at any position.
Ceiling: 65
Floor: 45
5.) Grant Holmes--RHP--6'2--190--HS
Fastball that sits 92-94, but has hit the high 90's and touches 97 deep into games. He pairs that with a plus curve in the low 80's, along with a change that could be plus, as well. There is little to no projection left in his body, but as a polished pitcher out of high school, he has the ceiling of an ace and a relatively low floor.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 50
6.) Michael Conforto--OF--L/R--6'2--217--CJr--Oregon State
He's an on base machine with an OBP of over .500 this spring, and is seen as a relatively safe pick. He can hit for a solid average along with above average power, but may not produce at an All-Star level. Not much of a defender, and he will most likely end up in left field, where he has the ability to hit 30+ homers a year if everything goes right.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 55
7.) Bradley Zimmer--OF--L/R--6'4--185--CJr--San Francisco
Toolys player with nothing that currently stands out, but his swing can generate plus power in the future, and there's still room to add strength in his frame. He's a slightly above average runner and has a good arm in the outfield. There's a chance he could play center, but he'll probably end up in a coerner outfield spot.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 50
8.) Aaron Nola--RHP--6'2--170--CJr--LSU
Considered a safe pick as a pitcher, he has put up great stats but his upside may be limited. Fastball sits 91-93 with good sink and plus command, and his curve and change could both be above average pitches. He reminds me of Danny Hultzen, but a right handed version.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 55
9.) Nick Gordon--SS--L/R--6'2--170--HS
Athletic infielder who possesses good fielding ability and above average speed on the base paths, pointing to the idea that he could be a player similar to his brother Dee Gordon. He makes solid contact, but probably won't have much power in the future. He uses the whole field as a hitter, but his speed and defense are what put him this high on the board.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
10.) Jeff Hoffman--RHP--6'4--185--CJr--East Carolina
Underwent Tommy John Surgery in May, meaning he won't be able to pitch until mid-2015. He had top of the rotation stuff before the injury, and many considered him to be in the mix for the top overall selection. Fastball sits in the mid 90's with a plus curve and the potential for an above average change, as well as a good feel for pitching.
Ceiling: 65
Floor: 45
11.) Touki Toussaint--RHP--6'2--185--HS
Erratic pitcher, but when he's on he has the potential for two 70 or better pitches on the 20-80 scale. His fastball sits in the low 90's, but he has touched 97 in the past. His best pitch could be his mid 70's curveball, which has ridiculous break that make it difficult for both hitters and catchers, and could be the best curve in the class. He's developing a changeup, and command can be a major problem. He has one of the highest ceilings in the draft, but needs to develop a quality changeup and improve his command in order to reach that ceiling.
Ceiling: 65
Floor: 45
12.) Tyler Beede--RHP--6'4--215--CJr--Vanderbilt
A former first round pick in 2011, Beede has been inconsistent in both performance and draft rankings. He has great stuff with a fastball that sits 92-94 and frequently hits the mid 90's, and a plus change and potentially above average curve, but control issues take away from the pitches. He has the upside of a #2 starter, but there is a small chance he ends up in the bullpen if his control doesn't improve.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
13.) Max Pentecost--C--R/R--6'2--190--CJr--Kennesaw State
A great defensive catcher with good arm strength behind the plate, pairing that with solid receiving skills that make him a near lock to stay at the position. He has a short swing that can generate solid contact, but he hasn't produced much power to this point. He could hit for a decent average with the possibility for 15 homers, and also has surprising speed.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 50
14.) Jacob Gatewood--SS--R/R--6'5--180--HS
A big shortstop with plus raw power that could be the best in this draft class, but there are major concerns about his hit tool and swing. He has a strong arm and the athleticism to stay at short, but it is very possible that he ends up at third or in a corner outfield spot. His huge raw power gives him a lot of upside, but the development of the rest of his game will determine how far he can go.
Ceiling: 65
Floor: 40
15.) Sean Newcomb--LHP--6'5--240--CJr--Hartford
Fastball sits 90-94, but hits 96 frequently with an easy delivery. He has the potential for an above average slider, with a curve and a change that should be average pitches. His control can be poor, but a solid four pitch mix make him a good prospect.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 50
16.) Monte Harrison--OF--S/R--6'4--180--HS
Three sport star in high school, and is also a Wide Receiver recruit for Nebraska. He is extremely athletic with plus speed and could be a plus defender in the outfield, as well. He's very raw at the plate, but has the ability to hit for average and above average power. He has great arm strength, and has a very high upside as possibly the best 5-tool prospect in the draft.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 40
17.) Trea Turner--SS--R/R--6'1--170--CJr--NC State
Plus plus speed and is a safe bet to stick at short int he pros. His bat is a question, but he has made consistent contact in the past and could even be a .280-.300 hitter in the future. Power is not part of his game, but as a shortstop who could hit for a good average with 40 stolen base potential, he is a clear first round talent.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
18.) Derek Hill--OF--R/R--6'2--175--HS
An athletic outfielder who has plus speed, running a sub 6.4 60, along with plus defense in centerfield. He's not projected to hit for much power, but 10-12 homers a season is reasonable. His hit tool is also a question mark, but he makes enough contact to hit for a decent average at the professional level.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 40
19.) Kyle Schwarber--C--L/R--6'0--230--CJr--Indiana
Power is the biggest part of his game, with plus raw power but there are potential holes in his swing that could cause high strikeout rates int he future. He could hit for average, but is more likely a .250-.260 hitter with power. There are questions as to whether he can stay behind the plate, and he could end up in a corner outfield spot. He needs to work on the accuracy of his throws as a catcher.
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 50
20.) Kyle Freeland--LHP--6'4--185--CJr--Evansville
Projectable body that could add velocity to his 90-93 MPH fastball that can already reach the mid 90's. His slider can work as an above average pitch, and his change could be slightly above average, as well. He has very good control and has drawn comparisons to Chris Sale.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
21.) Erik Fedde--RHP--6'4--170--CJr--UNLV
Underwent Tommy John Surgery in May, and won't pitch until mid 2015. Sat 91-93 with movement, touching 96 at times before the surgery, but struggled with his command despite low walk totals. He has a potential plus slider along with a change that could be slightly above average. He has a projectable frame that could see in increase in velocity, but he will be 22 by the time he pitches next.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
22.) Michael Gettys--OF--R/R--6'2--205--HS
Very toolsy player with plus speed, plus fielding ability in center, and a plus-plus arm. His bat is a huge question, as he didn't perform well this spring. His swing is solid, allowing him to generate good power in batting practice, but he hasn't made the same consistent hard contact in games. If he would have hit, he could have been a top 10 pick this year.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 35
23.) Brandon Finnegan--LHP--5'11-185--CJr--TCU
Dealt with a shoulder injury at the end of the year, but when healthy he was one of the top performers in the NCAA. Fastball that sits 93-95 that can hit the upper 90's with good control, along with a potentially above average slider/slurve in the low 80's. Could have a slightly above average change, but because of injury and size concerns and great two pitch mix, many see him as a great reliever/closer in the future.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
24.) Luis Ortiz--RHP--6'2--190--HS
A forearm injury raises a lot of concerns for scouts, but still sat 92-95 after the injury. He has hit 97 and has the potential for an above average slider, with the makings of a curve and a change that could be average, along with average command.
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 40
25.) Ti'Quan Forbes--R/R--6'4--170--HS
Raw player that could end up above average across the board. His swing has a hitch in it that will need to be corrected if he can tap into his potential above average power and hit tools. He's very athletic and could stay at short, but could also be a solid fielder in the outfield. He already possesses above average run and arm tools that could play at any position on the diamond.
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 30
26.) Derek Fisher--OF--L/R--6'3--210--CJr--Virginia
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 40
27.) A.J. Reed--1B--L/L--6'4--245--CJr--Kentucky
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 50
28.) Braxton Davidson--OF--L/L--6'3--215--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 35
29.) Justus Sheffield--LHP--6'1--180--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
30.) Scott Blewett--RHP--6'6--210--HS
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 35
31.) Jake Bukauskus--RHP--5'11--180--HS
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 45
32.) Mac Marshall--LHP--6'2--180--HS
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 40
33.) Alex Blandino--3B--L/R--6'0--190--CJr--Stanford
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 50
34.) Casey Gillaspie--1B--S/L--6'4--230--CJr--Wichita State
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
35.) Forrest Wall--2B--L/R--6'1--180--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
36.) Garrett Fulunchek--RHP--6'4--185--HS
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 30
37.) Spencer Adams--RHP--6'4--180--HS
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 40
38.) Foster Griffin--LHP--6'5--190--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 40
39.) Kodi Medeiros--LHP--6'0--185--HS
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 40
40.) Nick Burdi--RHP--6'3--220--CJr--Louisville
Ceiling: 60
Floor: 30
41.) Spencer Turnbull--RHP--6'3--195--CJr--Alabama
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 40
42.) Jacob Lindgren--LHP--6'0--190--CJr--Mississippi State
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
43.) Michael Chavis--3B--R/R--6'0--185--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
44.) Sean Reid-Foley--RHP--6'2--210--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 40
45.) Jakson Reetz--C--R/R--6'1--195--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 30
46.) Alex Verdugo--LHP--6'1--190--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
47.) Cameron Varga--RHP--6'3--205--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 40
48.) Michael Kopech--RHP--6'4--195--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
49.) Gareth Morgan--OF--R/R--6'4--210--HS
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 30
50.) Chris Ellis--RHP--6'5--205--CJr--Ole Miss
Ceiling: 55
Floor: 45
51.) Mike Papi--OF--L/R--6'3--210--CJr--Virginia
52.) Marcus Wilson--OF--R/R--6'3--170--HS
53.) Keith Weisenberg--RHP--6'4--185--HS
54.) Mitch Keller--RHP--6'3--195--HS
55.) Dylan Cease--RHP--6'2--175--HS
56.) Bobby Bradley--1B--L/R--6'1--225--HS
57.) Zech Lemond--RHP--6'3--175--CJr--Rice
58.) Matt Chapman--3B--R/R--6'2--205--CJr--Cal State Fullerton
59.) Matthew Railey--OF--L/L--5'11-195--HS
60.) Dylan Davis--OF--R/R--6'0--200--CJr--Oregon State
61.) J.D. Davis--1B--R/R--6'3--215--CJr--Cal State Fullerton
62.) Matt Imhof--LHP--6'5--220--CJr--Cal Poly
63.) Luke Weaver--RHP--6'2--170--CJr--Florida State
64.) Jack Flaherty--RHP/3B--6'3--190--HS
65.) Daniel Gossett--RHP--6'1--175--CJr--Clemson
66.) Jake Stinnett--RHP--6'4--205--CSr--Maryland
67.) Milton Ramos--SS--R/R--6'2--165--HS
68.) Sam Travis--1B--R/R--6'0--205--CJr--Indiana
69.) Jaren Kendell--OF--L/R--5'10--175--HS
70.) Chase Vallot--C--R/R--6'1--205--HS
71.) Cody Reed--LHP--6'3--260--HS
72.) Bryce Montes De Oca--RHP--6'7--265--HS
73.) Carson Sands--LHP--6'3--200--HS
74.) Taylor Sparks--3B--R/R--6'4--210--CJr--UC Irvine
75.) Grant Hockin--RHP--6'3--195--HS
76.) Cole Tucker--SS--S/R--6'3--165--HS
77.) Trey Supak--RHP--6'5--210--HS
78.) Brett Graves--RHP--6'1--190--CJr--Missouri
79.) Chris Oliver--RHP--6'4--185--CJr--Arkansas
80.) Nick Howard--RHP--6'3--215--CJr--Virginia
If you would like me to go into more depth on a player, just tweet @MicMaw, and I will provide you with any info you may need.
Friday, November 1, 2013
Should the Pirates Re-Sign Marlon Byrd?
For most of the 2013 season, the Pirates had a hole in their lineup at right field. The team tried to fill this hole internally, with options like Josh Harrison, Brandon Inge, Garrett Jones, Andrew Lambo, Alex Presley, Jose Tabata, and Travis Snider. Harrison will never be able to be a major league starter, Inge should never be mentioned again, and Presley never regained his 2011 form before being shipped to Minnesota along with Duke Welker in the Justin Morneau trade. Jones wasn't the same as last year, and was also needed in the first base platoon, and Lambo never received much of a chance to prove himself. This left Jose Tabata and Travis Snider as the two options who gave the Pirates the most hope to fill that hole in right field. Tabata quietly put together a solid season, arguably the best offensive showing he has had in his time in the majors. He had a career high .771 OPS, a 119 OPS+ (to put that in perspective, Starling Marte had a 122 OPS+, and Pedro Alvarez had an OPS+ of 116), and also showed more power with a career high .429 SLG and .146 ISO. The problems with Tabata were that he was injured for much of the season, only posting 341 plate appearances, and was also very inconsistent in the time he did play. Here is his OPS by month:
April/March: .549
May: .991
June: Did not play
July: .631
August: .851
September/October: .844
As you can see, Tabata's solid season was fueled by a very strong May, and by a great end to the season in the final two months. With Snider, the Pirates had a former top prospect who was given a chance to play every day from the beginning of the season. The hope was that he could regain some of the power that once made him the number six prospect in the game before the 2009 season, but after hitting only three homers in 226 at bats in the first half, it became clear that wouldn't happen. This led to there being a lot of rumors that the Pirates were going to add a right field bat at the July 31st trade deadline, with the options being Alex Rios, Nate Schierholtz, Hunter Pence, Giancarlo Stanton (the Pirates did make a strong push for him), and Marlon Byrd. However, the trade deadline came and went, and no deal was made. Rios was eventually sent to the Rangers in August, while the other four stayed put until late August. On August 28th, the Pirates completed a trade that would send Dilson Herrera and Victor Black to the Mets in exchange for Marlon Byrd and John Buck, along with $250K from the Mets. The Pirates were making a playoff push, and acquiring Byrd filled the hole that the Pirates were trying to fill the entire year.
Byrd's time with the Pirates was very successful, as he put up a line of .318/.357/.486 in 107 at bats, along with three home runs and a .843 OPS. Byrd also performed well in the playoffs, posting a .982 OPS and hitting a crucial home run in the Wild Card game against the Reds. So, with the Pirates not having a definite option in right field heading into 2014, it would make sense for the team to re-sign Marlon Byrd, right? Not necessarily.
Byrd's time in Pittsburgh was great, providing both offense and defense, as well as being a positive influence in the clubhouse. However, there are a few reasons why the Pirates should be hesitant to re-sign Byrd this offseason. These reasons include questions as to whether he can repeat his performance, the price he will command, and the other internal options that the Pirates have. Here we will go into a little more depth about these reasons to avoid signing Marlon Byrd for the 2014 season.
Can Byrd Repeat His Performance?
Statistically, 2013 was the best year of Marlon Byrd's career, with career highs in home runs, OPS, OPS+, WAR, and wRC+. That's good for Byrd, but it came in his age 35 season, while most players reach their prime around ages 27-30. Also, this stellar year came after the worst year of Byrd's career, where he posted a .488 OPS in 143 at bats, managing a WAR of -0.5. Byrd saw his BABIP jump to .353 in 2013, which is much higher than his career number of .325, which is influenced by this season. Byrd struck out more and walked less this year, which is always a red flag, especially for a player who is entering his late 30's. His home run to fly ball ratio was excessively higher than his career number, with a 16.4% ratio in 2013, and 9.3% career number, which explained his increase in power. Also, you can't forget his suspension for a performance enhancing drug in 2012 (which he maintains was used for medical purposes, not baseball). All of these facts make it hard for me to believe that Byrd will be able to repeat this performance in 2014, and that he was a little lucky this season. I'm not the only one who thinks this, as the Steamer projection from Fangraphs and steamerprojection.com have Byrd posting a .735 OPS in 2014. With the amount of money he is likely to receive in a new contract, would that production be worth it for the Pirates?
How Much Will It Take To Sign Byrd?
Byrd won't be receiving a qualifying offer, which is up to $14.1 million this season, but he will still come fairly expensive this offseason. The free agent market for outfielders this season will be affected by the extension given to Hunter Pence at the end September, where he was given a five year, $90 million deal. There are four or five outfielders that will be ranked ahead of Byrd this offseason, with those players being Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Beltran, Shin-Soo Choo, with Nelson Cruz being in a similar range with Byrd. Deals given to those players could also drive the market price up for Byrd, forging a price tag that is far above what he is really worth. I would expect to see Byrd signing for over $10 million with how the current market is, especially if teams act quick to avoid a bidding war, which is something that the Pirates have done in recent years (think Russell Martin and Clint Barmes). If you think that price is too high, remember that Shane Victorino was signed to a three year, $39 million contract before 2013 after posting a .704 OPS. The Pirates have enough room in their payroll to give Byrd that kind of contract, but that money would be better used to bring in a first baseman or to sign another player to an extension, like Marte, Alvarez, or even Gerrit Cole.
Internal Options
The Pirates do still have some internal options they could use to take over the right field position. As I mentioned above, Jose Tabata put together a very nice season in 2013, possibly the best of his career. He was inconsistent, but once he was receiving consistent playing time in the final two months, he was able to provide a lot of offense for the playoff push. It is worth mentioning that Tabata will be playing the majority of the 2014 season at age 25, and that he has never spent a full season in the majors. He will be making $3 million in 2014, and it may be wise to see what the Pirates have in a young player who was such a vital part of their future only a few years ago. Another player the Pirates could give a chance to is Andrew Lambo. Lambo, the number 49 prospect in baseball heading into 2009, was largely forgotten about heading into the 2013 season, but he brought himself back into the spotlight after hitting 33 home runs across AA, AAA, and the majors this year. Lambo started out hot in AA, but there were questions as to whether he could continue this production at higher levels, as he spent parts of six seasons at AA. He answered that question by continuing his performance at AAA, posting an even higher OPS at the level (.933) compared to AA (.910). He was called up to the majors in late August, and it seemed like he was going to be the starting right fielder, but the team traded for Marlon Byrd soon after, and Lambo never received regular playing time. Lambo would provide the Pirates with another potential power bat in their lineup, and could also get on base at a good rate. If the Pirates don't like the idea of starting either Tabata or Lambo full time, they could also use Tabata against lefties and Lambo against righties. Lambo destroyed righties in the minors this year, posting a .944 OPS against them, but Tabata actually hit better against righties this year, as well. Tabata has slightly better career numbers against lefties, so you would hope that he could produce well in his platoon role.
The third internal option the Pirates could have at some point in the 2014 season is Gregory Polanco. Polanco is currently the number two prospect in the system behind Jameson Taillon, and one could make an argument for Polanco being ahead of Taillon, and is also ranked as the 13th best prospect in the game by Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com. Polanco didn't have the same success that he had at the plate in 2012, but he still put up a solid season at higher levels, with a line of .285/.356/.434, with 12 home runs, 38 stolen bases, and a .791 OPS. Polanco is a true five-tool talent, with the ability to hit for average and power, along with a plus arm, plus-plus speed and a plus-plus glove in center. Like Marte, Polanco is good enough defensively in center field to move McCutchen to a corner spot, but that isn't going to happen so Polanco will be used in right when he reaches the majors. The big question is when will Polanco be ready? He was in a similar situation as Marte was coming into 2012, and Marte was called up in July, which could be used as a good timeframe for Polanco.
Once again, Marlon Byrd was great in his time with the Pirates. The Pirates have already shown interest in re-signing him, which wouldn't be a terrible move, but it wouldn't be the right move. The market price to sign Byrd this offseason will be driven up by recent signings like Hunter Pence, and could rise even more with the signings of other free agent outfielders. Also, the Pirates have some talented internal options with Jose Tabata and Andrew Lambo, both of whom deserve chances to prove themselves at the major league level. The Pirates have the number 13 prospect in baseball with Gregory Polanco, and he could be ready to contribute to the major league team at some point in 2014. The Pirates could very well get more production out of their internal options than Marlon Byrd could provide them in 2014, and at a much cheaper price. Although Byrd put up All-Star numbers in 2013, it is very unlikely he repeats those numbers, and the Pirates will be better off letting him sign with another team and starting the season with Tabata and/or Lambo in right field, with Polanco waiting in the wings.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment section below.
The third internal option the Pirates could have at some point in the 2014 season is Gregory Polanco. Polanco is currently the number two prospect in the system behind Jameson Taillon, and one could make an argument for Polanco being ahead of Taillon, and is also ranked as the 13th best prospect in the game by Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com. Polanco didn't have the same success that he had at the plate in 2012, but he still put up a solid season at higher levels, with a line of .285/.356/.434, with 12 home runs, 38 stolen bases, and a .791 OPS. Polanco is a true five-tool talent, with the ability to hit for average and power, along with a plus arm, plus-plus speed and a plus-plus glove in center. Like Marte, Polanco is good enough defensively in center field to move McCutchen to a corner spot, but that isn't going to happen so Polanco will be used in right when he reaches the majors. The big question is when will Polanco be ready? He was in a similar situation as Marte was coming into 2012, and Marte was called up in July, which could be used as a good timeframe for Polanco.
Once again, Marlon Byrd was great in his time with the Pirates. The Pirates have already shown interest in re-signing him, which wouldn't be a terrible move, but it wouldn't be the right move. The market price to sign Byrd this offseason will be driven up by recent signings like Hunter Pence, and could rise even more with the signings of other free agent outfielders. Also, the Pirates have some talented internal options with Jose Tabata and Andrew Lambo, both of whom deserve chances to prove themselves at the major league level. The Pirates have the number 13 prospect in baseball with Gregory Polanco, and he could be ready to contribute to the major league team at some point in 2014. The Pirates could very well get more production out of their internal options than Marlon Byrd could provide them in 2014, and at a much cheaper price. Although Byrd put up All-Star numbers in 2013, it is very unlikely he repeats those numbers, and the Pirates will be better off letting him sign with another team and starting the season with Tabata and/or Lambo in right field, with Polanco waiting in the wings.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment section below.
Wednesday, July 31, 2013
The Pirates Shouldn't Pursue Justin Morneau
Jon Heyman is reporting that Justin Morneau is "drawing interest" from the Pirates, which would not be a good move for the Pirates. Morneau has a batting line of .262/.323/.393 in 374 at bats this year, with eight home runs and a .716 OPS.
Morneau would be a rental for the Pirates, as his six year deal that began in 2008 comes to an end after this season, and he will become a free agent. With his contract status (he is making $14 million this year) and lack of production, Morneau should not cost much at all from a prospect status, but there is really no reason for the Pirates to make a deal for him. Morneau's OPS+ of 96 is lower than both Garrett Jones's (107) and Gaby Sanchez's (118), so he would not be an upgrade at the position offensively. He also wouldn't help the team much defensively, as his defense has regressed over the past few years.
Morneau is in his age 32 season, so he is past his prime and there are no indications that he will improve upon his current numbers. He has a .561 OPS in his last eleven games, and has really struggled against left handed pitchers, with a .620 OPS against them in 113 at bats this year. He's also not getting unlucky, as his .301 Batting Average on Balls In Play this year is actually higher than his career number of .294.
A deal for Morneau wouldn't make much sense for the Pirates, and any deal they make should be for an upgrade in right field, where they really don't have an answer outside of Alex Presley at this point. The Pirates are interested in two of the Cubs' outfielders in Nate Schierholtz and David DeJesus. I would prefer Schierholtz out of those two, as he is cheaper and is providing more offensive production.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.
Morneau would be a rental for the Pirates, as his six year deal that began in 2008 comes to an end after this season, and he will become a free agent. With his contract status (he is making $14 million this year) and lack of production, Morneau should not cost much at all from a prospect status, but there is really no reason for the Pirates to make a deal for him. Morneau's OPS+ of 96 is lower than both Garrett Jones's (107) and Gaby Sanchez's (118), so he would not be an upgrade at the position offensively. He also wouldn't help the team much defensively, as his defense has regressed over the past few years.
Morneau is in his age 32 season, so he is past his prime and there are no indications that he will improve upon his current numbers. He has a .561 OPS in his last eleven games, and has really struggled against left handed pitchers, with a .620 OPS against them in 113 at bats this year. He's also not getting unlucky, as his .301 Batting Average on Balls In Play this year is actually higher than his career number of .294.
A deal for Morneau wouldn't make much sense for the Pirates, and any deal they make should be for an upgrade in right field, where they really don't have an answer outside of Alex Presley at this point. The Pirates are interested in two of the Cubs' outfielders in Nate Schierholtz and David DeJesus. I would prefer Schierholtz out of those two, as he is cheaper and is providing more offensive production.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.
Sunday, July 28, 2013
Three Trade Ideas For The Pirates
The Major League Baseball trade deadline is only a few days away, and with the Pirates currently 1.5 games out of first in their division and 8.0 games ahead of the third team in the wild card race, the Bucs are expected to make a move. Right field has been an offensive hole for the Pirates in 2013, the team could use an upgrade at first, and a major league team can never have too much pitching. There have been some names that the Pirates are said to have interest in, including Alex Rios, Nate Schierholtz, Hunter Pence, and Bud Norris. While these players would fill positional needs for the team, they aren't necessarily great fits for the organization. Rios would only provide a slight upgrade in right, and with his contract of $12 million in 2013 and $12.5 million in 2014 (with a $13.5 million team option for 2015), it wouldn't make sense to give up any kind of prospect for his services. Schierholtz is having a very good year this year, but has been used almost exclusively as a left handed platoon player, something the Pirates may already have. He has a career .691 OPS against lefties, so wouldn't be much use there. If the Pirates could get him for a cheap price, he may be a good target, but as possibly the most sought after right fielder on the market, he will only be had for a steeper price that is much higher than his actual value. For a smaller market team like the Pirates, it's not a good idea to go after a short term slight upgrade at the expense of your future. Pence may not even be on the market, but he would be completely overvalued for his production and would leave after two months. As for Bud Norris as an option, I'm going to just say no and hope I never hear of it again. So, if the Pirates need to make a move, who should they target? Here are three trade ideas, some that could help the Pirates now, and some that could help them in the future.
Toronto Blue Jays: 1B Adam Lind for IF Ivan De Jesus and RHP Stolmy Pimentel
Lind is in the middle of his best season since his stellar 2009 campaign, and currently has an .848 with 12 home runs in 298 at bats. Lind comes with a relatively cheap price of $5 million for this year, with club options for the next three years at $7.0 million, $7.5 million, and $8.0 million. Lind has been more of a platoon player in Toronto, a position that he would remain in with Pittsburgh, pushing Garrett Jones into right field against lefties. The price wouldn't be too high for Lind, and the fact that De Jesus and Pimentel could contribute to the Blue Jays this year would make this a do-able deal for each team. Lind doesn't produce a high WAR and has been inconsistent over the past few years, so the deal would not require a top prospect.
Seattle Mariners: 1B Kendrys Morales and OF Dustin Ackley for OF Jerry Sands, RHP Nick Kingham, OF Willy Garcia, and RHP Vin Mazzaro
This is a deal that could potentially help the Pirates now and in the future. The addition of Morales would give the Pirates an everyday first baseman who can hit from both sides of the plate, without a weakness from either side. He is in his final year of arbitration and will become a free agent at the end of the season, but the Pirates could bring him back with an extension and promise of being the everyday first baseman, something the Pirates may not have in their system (although Alex Dickerson is looking more and more like that player). Ackley was the second pick in the 2009 draft for the Mariners, but has really struggled at the major league level over the past couple seasons. The Pirates could make a Travis Snider-like deal for him, including reliever Vin Mazzaro in the deal like they did with Brad Lincoln in 2012.
Miami Marlins: OF Giancarlo Stanton for RHP Jameson Taillon, OF Gregory Polanco, C Tony Sanchez, RHP Duke Welker
OK, this trade will most likely never happen. Stanton is the best player on a young team that is very exciting, with other players like Jose Fernandez, Christian Yelich, and Jake Marisnick. But, Stanton displayed a lot of displeasure with the Marlins after their trading binge over the offseason, so a lot of people speculated that Stanton would be available for trades as well. To this point, the Marlins' management and ownership have insisted that he isn't available, but the Pirates have been said to be calling The Marlins very often regarding Stanton. This trade would give the Pirates one of the best right fielders and power hitters in the game until at least 2016, and could be even longer if the Pirates could sign him to an extension. The Marlins would be receiving two of the top 15 prospects in the MLB for Stanton in Taillon and Polanco. Judging by how the Marlins have been aggressively pushing players to the majors this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see both Taillon and Polanco on the Marlins in 2013, were a trade to occur. This would be huge trade for both teams, and one that could definitely benefit both teams. The Pirates would have a long term solution in right, which has been a weak spot this season, and the Marlins could have a potential ace and five star center fielder. As a Pirates fan, just think about how great it would be to have Marte, McCutchen, and Stanton in your outfield.
The trade deadline is quickly approaching, and there is some pressure on the Pirates to make a trade. Do they have to? No. Do I suggest they make a trade? Not necessarily, these are just three trade ideas that I think would improve the team now and possibly in the future. I would love for the Pirates to get Giancarlo Stanton, and the Pirates would love that too, but it is a very unlikely deal. There haven't been many, if any, rumors about any of these deals actually being talked about, but they are some thought provoking trades a few days ahead of the deadline.
If any of our readers have any trade ideas, I'd love to hear and discuss them! You can leave you ideas in the comment section below, or tell me on twitter @mikemaw45.
Toronto Blue Jays: 1B Adam Lind for IF Ivan De Jesus and RHP Stolmy Pimentel
Lind is in the middle of his best season since his stellar 2009 campaign, and currently has an .848 with 12 home runs in 298 at bats. Lind comes with a relatively cheap price of $5 million for this year, with club options for the next three years at $7.0 million, $7.5 million, and $8.0 million. Lind has been more of a platoon player in Toronto, a position that he would remain in with Pittsburgh, pushing Garrett Jones into right field against lefties. The price wouldn't be too high for Lind, and the fact that De Jesus and Pimentel could contribute to the Blue Jays this year would make this a do-able deal for each team. Lind doesn't produce a high WAR and has been inconsistent over the past few years, so the deal would not require a top prospect.
Seattle Mariners: 1B Kendrys Morales and OF Dustin Ackley for OF Jerry Sands, RHP Nick Kingham, OF Willy Garcia, and RHP Vin Mazzaro
This is a deal that could potentially help the Pirates now and in the future. The addition of Morales would give the Pirates an everyday first baseman who can hit from both sides of the plate, without a weakness from either side. He is in his final year of arbitration and will become a free agent at the end of the season, but the Pirates could bring him back with an extension and promise of being the everyday first baseman, something the Pirates may not have in their system (although Alex Dickerson is looking more and more like that player). Ackley was the second pick in the 2009 draft for the Mariners, but has really struggled at the major league level over the past couple seasons. The Pirates could make a Travis Snider-like deal for him, including reliever Vin Mazzaro in the deal like they did with Brad Lincoln in 2012.
Miami Marlins: OF Giancarlo Stanton for RHP Jameson Taillon, OF Gregory Polanco, C Tony Sanchez, RHP Duke Welker
OK, this trade will most likely never happen. Stanton is the best player on a young team that is very exciting, with other players like Jose Fernandez, Christian Yelich, and Jake Marisnick. But, Stanton displayed a lot of displeasure with the Marlins after their trading binge over the offseason, so a lot of people speculated that Stanton would be available for trades as well. To this point, the Marlins' management and ownership have insisted that he isn't available, but the Pirates have been said to be calling The Marlins very often regarding Stanton. This trade would give the Pirates one of the best right fielders and power hitters in the game until at least 2016, and could be even longer if the Pirates could sign him to an extension. The Marlins would be receiving two of the top 15 prospects in the MLB for Stanton in Taillon and Polanco. Judging by how the Marlins have been aggressively pushing players to the majors this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see both Taillon and Polanco on the Marlins in 2013, were a trade to occur. This would be huge trade for both teams, and one that could definitely benefit both teams. The Pirates would have a long term solution in right, which has been a weak spot this season, and the Marlins could have a potential ace and five star center fielder. As a Pirates fan, just think about how great it would be to have Marte, McCutchen, and Stanton in your outfield.
The trade deadline is quickly approaching, and there is some pressure on the Pirates to make a trade. Do they have to? No. Do I suggest they make a trade? Not necessarily, these are just three trade ideas that I think would improve the team now and possibly in the future. I would love for the Pirates to get Giancarlo Stanton, and the Pirates would love that too, but it is a very unlikely deal. There haven't been many, if any, rumors about any of these deals actually being talked about, but they are some thought provoking trades a few days ahead of the deadline.
If any of our readers have any trade ideas, I'd love to hear and discuss them! You can leave you ideas in the comment section below, or tell me on twitter @mikemaw45.
Wednesday, July 24, 2013
Would Alex Rios Be An Upgrade/Worth It For The Pirates?
Over the last few weeks, there have been multiple rumors that the Pirates have real interest in the Alex Rios, the right fielder for the Chicago White Sox. There was even a moment when Pirates fans thought that maybe a deal had gone down between the two teams when Rios was taken out of a game within twenty minutes of Pirates' top shortstop Alen Hanson being taken out of his game. That was soon found to be a pure coincidence, as Rios was taken out for not hustling, and Hanson was in the second game of a double header in which his team had a huge win.
Right field has been a weakness for the Pirates this year, with Travis Snider, who came into the season as the starter at the position, having an OPS of .629 coming into the game on July 24th. The Pirates have also used Garrett Jones, Alex Presley, Brandon Inge, Jose Tabata, Josh Harrison, and even Russell Martin at the position. Tabata is the current starter at right, and after a hot start after his return from injury, has settled down to a .738 OPS in 135 at bats on the season. Rios currently has a batting line of .278/.333/.442 in 371 at bats, with 12 home runs, 21 stolen bases, and an OPS of .775. Those numbers would clearly suggest that he has been better than what the Pirates have in right, but would he really be an upgrade?
If you look at it from a player vs. player standpoint, Rios would surely be an upgrade over Tabata, Presley, Snider, and Andrew Lambo. But, would he be an upgrade over a potential platoon between Tabata and any one of the other three lefty options? (I'm leaving Garrett Jones out, as he should be part of a platoon at first with Gaby Sanchez) Here we are going to examine the potential production of those platoon options, and compare those to the potential production from Alex Rios, who is a right handed hitter. We are going to start by evaluating Jose Tabata's side of the platoon, which would be against left handed pitching.
Jose Tabata vs. Lefties
I'm going to start this section by giving a stat that is somewhat surprising: Jose Tabata actually has a higher OPS+ than Alex Rios this season, with Tabata's number at 109 and Rios' at 106. That doesn't mean Tabata has been better than Rios, and that is conveyed by Tabata's 0.0 WAR, compared to Rios' WAR of 1.4 (those numbers according to Baseball Reference).
Over his career, Tabata hasn't really shown much, if any, of a platoon split, with a career .720 OPS against lefties and a .711 OPS against righties. This season, Tabata has actually had a pretty large reverse platoon split, with a .775 OPS against righties and a .632 OPS against lefties. For any of these platoons to have any chance of working, Tabata's numbers would have to gravitate closer to that .720 career number, and would actually need some improvement beyond that number.
Travis Snider vs. Righties
In Snider's major league career, his OPS vs. right handed pitchers in almost 100 points higher than his OPS against lefties, with a .721 number against righties and .630 against lefties. Neither of those numbers warrant him a starting position, even in a platoon situation. Snider's numbers vs righties have been even worse this year, with a .662 OPS, meaning Snider shouldn't be starting against any pitcher at this point.
Alex Presley vs. Righties
Presley has been a decent hitter against righties in his career, with a .749 OPS, but that would be enough to give him a spot in a platoon role. On the season Presley has a solid .824 OPS against righties, but that comes in a very small sample size of 34 at bats, so his career .749 number would give a better indication of the number he would put up over the rest of the season in a platoon role.
Andrew Lambo vs. Righties
Lambo's numbers come with the disclaimer that they have been against minor league pitchers. Still, his numbers have been very impressive against right handers this year, with a .304 average, 19 home runs, and 1.002 OPS in 261 at bats. Lambo would definitely be a good platoon option for the Pirates, probably the best the team has for this situation (outside of Jones), but at this point there doesn't seem to be a match for him in right field.
Alex Rios
Rios' OPS of .775 against any pitcher this year would be better than any of the Pirates players' splits, so Rios would definitely be an upgrade over any situation the Pirates currently have in their organization. Rios is only slightly better against lefties in his career, and the Pirates wouldn't trade for Rios to simply be a platoon player regardless.
The answer to this question was much more simple than I anticipated, as Rios would clearly be an upgrade over any player or platoon situation the Pirates could put together in right field. Does that mean the team needs to trade for him? It certainly doesn't, but these numbers do show that the Pirates are going to have a big weakness at the position during the pennant race unless they make a move. The trade market is pretty weak this year, but the Pirates don't need to make a trade for Rios. It would make some sense, but they would be taking on Rios' $12.5 million contract in 2014, and would have a $14 million club option for 2015. If the Pirates acquired Rios on the July 31st deadline, they would be paying him a minimum of $17.82 million over the 2013-2014 seasons, assuming they buyout his option year in 2015. That number could be lowered if the White Sox offer some salary relief, but I would suggest against that for the Pirates as that would cost a higher grade prospect, something that Rios, who is 32 years old, is not worth at this point in his career. Rios has a 4.3 WAR over the past two and a half seasons, and his numbers will most likely decline as he grows older.
Rios would provide the Pirates with a short term upgrade in right field for the 2013 playoff run, but his contract status, price for a trade, and age would make it a somewhat foolish move for the Pirates. Jose Tabata has enough talent and has the potential to hold down the right field spot, at least until top prospect Gregory Polanco is ready to take over at some point in 2014. The Pirates could always look for a cheaper option like they did with Travis Snider in 2012, but those are very rare on the current trade market. As I said in my post about if the Pirates should pursue a starting pitcher, I find the team better served to stand pat with what they have, as there are no real upgrades on the trade market that would be worth the price.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment section below.
Right field has been a weakness for the Pirates this year, with Travis Snider, who came into the season as the starter at the position, having an OPS of .629 coming into the game on July 24th. The Pirates have also used Garrett Jones, Alex Presley, Brandon Inge, Jose Tabata, Josh Harrison, and even Russell Martin at the position. Tabata is the current starter at right, and after a hot start after his return from injury, has settled down to a .738 OPS in 135 at bats on the season. Rios currently has a batting line of .278/.333/.442 in 371 at bats, with 12 home runs, 21 stolen bases, and an OPS of .775. Those numbers would clearly suggest that he has been better than what the Pirates have in right, but would he really be an upgrade?
If you look at it from a player vs. player standpoint, Rios would surely be an upgrade over Tabata, Presley, Snider, and Andrew Lambo. But, would he be an upgrade over a potential platoon between Tabata and any one of the other three lefty options? (I'm leaving Garrett Jones out, as he should be part of a platoon at first with Gaby Sanchez) Here we are going to examine the potential production of those platoon options, and compare those to the potential production from Alex Rios, who is a right handed hitter. We are going to start by evaluating Jose Tabata's side of the platoon, which would be against left handed pitching.
Jose Tabata vs. Lefties
I'm going to start this section by giving a stat that is somewhat surprising: Jose Tabata actually has a higher OPS+ than Alex Rios this season, with Tabata's number at 109 and Rios' at 106. That doesn't mean Tabata has been better than Rios, and that is conveyed by Tabata's 0.0 WAR, compared to Rios' WAR of 1.4 (those numbers according to Baseball Reference).
Over his career, Tabata hasn't really shown much, if any, of a platoon split, with a career .720 OPS against lefties and a .711 OPS against righties. This season, Tabata has actually had a pretty large reverse platoon split, with a .775 OPS against righties and a .632 OPS against lefties. For any of these platoons to have any chance of working, Tabata's numbers would have to gravitate closer to that .720 career number, and would actually need some improvement beyond that number.
Travis Snider vs. Righties
In Snider's major league career, his OPS vs. right handed pitchers in almost 100 points higher than his OPS against lefties, with a .721 number against righties and .630 against lefties. Neither of those numbers warrant him a starting position, even in a platoon situation. Snider's numbers vs righties have been even worse this year, with a .662 OPS, meaning Snider shouldn't be starting against any pitcher at this point.
Alex Presley vs. Righties
Presley has been a decent hitter against righties in his career, with a .749 OPS, but that would be enough to give him a spot in a platoon role. On the season Presley has a solid .824 OPS against righties, but that comes in a very small sample size of 34 at bats, so his career .749 number would give a better indication of the number he would put up over the rest of the season in a platoon role.
Andrew Lambo vs. Righties
Lambo's numbers come with the disclaimer that they have been against minor league pitchers. Still, his numbers have been very impressive against right handers this year, with a .304 average, 19 home runs, and 1.002 OPS in 261 at bats. Lambo would definitely be a good platoon option for the Pirates, probably the best the team has for this situation (outside of Jones), but at this point there doesn't seem to be a match for him in right field.
Alex Rios
Rios' OPS of .775 against any pitcher this year would be better than any of the Pirates players' splits, so Rios would definitely be an upgrade over any situation the Pirates currently have in their organization. Rios is only slightly better against lefties in his career, and the Pirates wouldn't trade for Rios to simply be a platoon player regardless.
The answer to this question was much more simple than I anticipated, as Rios would clearly be an upgrade over any player or platoon situation the Pirates could put together in right field. Does that mean the team needs to trade for him? It certainly doesn't, but these numbers do show that the Pirates are going to have a big weakness at the position during the pennant race unless they make a move. The trade market is pretty weak this year, but the Pirates don't need to make a trade for Rios. It would make some sense, but they would be taking on Rios' $12.5 million contract in 2014, and would have a $14 million club option for 2015. If the Pirates acquired Rios on the July 31st deadline, they would be paying him a minimum of $17.82 million over the 2013-2014 seasons, assuming they buyout his option year in 2015. That number could be lowered if the White Sox offer some salary relief, but I would suggest against that for the Pirates as that would cost a higher grade prospect, something that Rios, who is 32 years old, is not worth at this point in his career. Rios has a 4.3 WAR over the past two and a half seasons, and his numbers will most likely decline as he grows older.
Rios would provide the Pirates with a short term upgrade in right field for the 2013 playoff run, but his contract status, price for a trade, and age would make it a somewhat foolish move for the Pirates. Jose Tabata has enough talent and has the potential to hold down the right field spot, at least until top prospect Gregory Polanco is ready to take over at some point in 2014. The Pirates could always look for a cheaper option like they did with Travis Snider in 2012, but those are very rare on the current trade market. As I said in my post about if the Pirates should pursue a starting pitcher, I find the team better served to stand pat with what they have, as there are no real upgrades on the trade market that would be worth the price.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment section below.
Tuesday, July 23, 2013
Pirates Designate Inge For Assignment, Recall Walker and Black
It may seem long overdue, but the Brandon Inge era is over now in Pittsburgh. Inge, who signed a one year, $1.25 million contract in the offseason, had a very forgettable season for the Pirates this year, with a .181/.204/.238 line, along with one home run in 104 at bats. Those numbers produced a .442 OPS, 25 OPS+, and -0.6 WAR according to Baseball-Reference. With that WAR, Inge was tied with Michael McKenry for the title of least valuable player on the Pirates for the 2013 season. Inge played five different positions for the Pirates, including every infield position and right field. Since he was designated for assignment, the Pirates have ten days to trade, release, or pass Inge through waivers. Judging by the way he has played this year, I would assume that he will be released, as there will be no takers for his services.
With Inge being DFA'd and Jason Grilli being sent to the DL today, the Pirates had two open roster spots. Those spots were taken by second baseman Neil Walker and AAA Indianapolis Indians' closing pitcher, Vic Black.
Walker is in the middle of what seems to be a down year offensively, but he hasn't had much of chance to get on track this year, with multiple stints on the DL keeping him from getting long stretches of at bats. He has a line of .244/.347/.284 in 250 at bats, including six home runs, 26 RBI, and a .731 OPS. He will step back into his spot as the everyday second baseman, with Jordy Mercer moving back to shortstop.
Black was the closer for the Pirates AAA affiliate in Indianapolis this season, putting up a 2.31 ERA in 35 IP, including 15 saves. He has a great K/9 rate, at 13.1, and has shown improved control this year. Control was his main issue coming into the season, with a career 4.7 BB/9 coming into the season, but his 3.3 BB/9 rate this year show his continuing development.
This is what I said about Black in my 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Prospect Preview:
19) Victor Black--RHP--25--AAA
Black was drafted in the supplemental first round of the 2009 draft, but didn't live up to his hype until last season. In 2012, he posted a 1.65 ERA in 60 IP, with a 12.8 K/9 and 1.15 WHIP. Control has been a problem in his career, and that continued in 2012, with a 4.4 BB/9. Black has a plus fastball that sits 96-98 MPH, touching 99, and pairs that with a plus slider. If he can improve his control a little, he could be a future option for closer with the Pirates, and that future may not be far away.
Well, the future is now with Victor Black, in a sense that he is now part of the major league bullpen. He has reached triple digits with his fastball this season, and pairs that with his wipeout slider to make a great two pitch combo. Black could be one of the top closing options in the coming years when Grilli/Melancon are gone, or begin to struggle.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment section below.
With Inge being DFA'd and Jason Grilli being sent to the DL today, the Pirates had two open roster spots. Those spots were taken by second baseman Neil Walker and AAA Indianapolis Indians' closing pitcher, Vic Black.
Walker is in the middle of what seems to be a down year offensively, but he hasn't had much of chance to get on track this year, with multiple stints on the DL keeping him from getting long stretches of at bats. He has a line of .244/.347/.284 in 250 at bats, including six home runs, 26 RBI, and a .731 OPS. He will step back into his spot as the everyday second baseman, with Jordy Mercer moving back to shortstop.
Black was the closer for the Pirates AAA affiliate in Indianapolis this season, putting up a 2.31 ERA in 35 IP, including 15 saves. He has a great K/9 rate, at 13.1, and has shown improved control this year. Control was his main issue coming into the season, with a career 4.7 BB/9 coming into the season, but his 3.3 BB/9 rate this year show his continuing development.
This is what I said about Black in my 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Prospect Preview:
19) Victor Black--RHP--25--AAA
Black was drafted in the supplemental first round of the 2009 draft, but didn't live up to his hype until last season. In 2012, he posted a 1.65 ERA in 60 IP, with a 12.8 K/9 and 1.15 WHIP. Control has been a problem in his career, and that continued in 2012, with a 4.4 BB/9. Black has a plus fastball that sits 96-98 MPH, touching 99, and pairs that with a plus slider. If he can improve his control a little, he could be a future option for closer with the Pirates, and that future may not be far away.
Well, the future is now with Victor Black, in a sense that he is now part of the major league bullpen. He has reached triple digits with his fastball this season, and pairs that with his wipeout slider to make a great two pitch combo. Black could be one of the top closing options in the coming years when Grilli/Melancon are gone, or begin to struggle.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment section below.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)