Why Pedro Alvarez Should Be Moved Up in the Order

Pedro Alvarez has not hit well at the major league level since the start of the 2011 season.  Actually, he’s done worse than “not hitting well”.  He’s been horrible.  I hate to say it, but that might even be too positive of a word to describe his hitting.  Regardless, there is no hiding that Pedro Alvarez has not come anywhere near the lofty expectations the organization and fanbase had for him after he had a somewhat successful rookie campaign in 2010.   In his career, he has a .224/.296/.386 line, good for a .683 OPS.  In 2011, his OPS+ was 56, and in after April 21, 2012, his OPS+ is 20.  League average is 100.  His WAR (Wins Above Replacement, which is an attempt by the sabermetric baseball community to summarize a player’s total contributions to their team in one statistic--explanation from FanGraphs) in 2011 was -1.4, meaning that Alvarez was worse than a replacement player.  To conclude all this, I would like to reiterate that Alvarez has been terrible.  That being said, the Pirates should definitely move Pedro up in the batting order.
I realize I just threw you readers a big curveball right there (so if you were Pedro, you probably would have struck out...), but it should be done.  Pedro Alvarez has the natural ability to be the best hitter in the lineup for the Pirates, even better than McCutchen.  That can’t be forgotten.  He easily has the best raw power on the team, and was able to hit for a decent average in the minors.  Obviously, none of that matters unless he translates that talent into real games against real major league pitchers.  In 2010, however, Pedro showed that he could hit pitchers at the highest level, and hit them well.  He had a line of .256/.326/.461, along with 16 home runs and 64 RBI in 347 at bats.  That year, his OPS+ was 112, meaning he was an above average hitter at the major league level at one point.  And at 25 years old, there is still a lot of time for him to regain that form.
In his career, Alvarez has hit in every spot in the order except for first and third.  He has spent most of his time batting either fifth, sixth or seventh.  Here are his stats in all three of his seasons at each of those three spots, then his career totals at those spots.

2010

Spot	AB	HITS	AVG	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS
5th	258	76	.295	15	56	27	77	.360	.547	.907
6th	46	7	.152	0	5	3	22	.200	.196	.396
7th	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---

2011

Spot	AB	HITS	AVG	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS
5th	87	13	.149	0	6	7	32	.213	.184	.397
6th	54	18	.333	2	6	4	15	.379	.519	.898
7th	84	12	.143	2	7	11	29	.258	.238	.496

2012

Spot	AB	HITS	AVG	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS
5th	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---
6th	7	2	.286	0	2	0	2	.286	.286	.571
7th	26	2	.077	2	2	1	13	.111	.308	.419

CAREER

Spot	AB	HITS	AVG	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS
5th	345	89	.258	15	62	34	109	.324	.455	.779
6th	107	27	.252	2	13	7	39	.296	.364	.660
7th	110	14	.127	4	9	12	42	.226	.255	.480

stats from baseballreference.com

As a rookie, Pedro spent the majority of his time in the fifth spot in the order, where he did a fantastic job, highlighted by a .295 average and .907 OPS.  In the sixth spot, he did not do nearly as well, with a .152 average and .396 OPS.  Pedro also hit 15 of his 16 home runs that year out of the fifth spot.

In 2011, Pedro struggled immensely out of the fifth and seventh spots in the order.  In the sixth spot, however, he did a very good job, with an OPS near .900 and a .333 average.  

In 2012, Alvarez has hit almost exclusively out of the 7th spot, where he has struggled more than ever.  He has hit in the sixth spot in the last two games, and hit there again on Sunday against the Cardinals.  Pedro had two RBI on Friday, batting sixth.

In his career, Pedro has batted fifth in 56% of his at bats.  In those at-bats, Alvarez has seen a good amount of success, with a good OPS and an average 34 points higher than his career number.  He has had some success out of the sixth spot as well, with the numbers at that spot also above his career numbers.  However, despite Pedro’s past successes in the fifth and sixth spot, manager Clint Hurdle has had Alvarez in the seventh spot for most of the season.
There are a few reasons why I hate seeing Pedro in the seventh spot.  First, he has never had success out of that spot.  A career .127 average shouldn’t really prompt you as a manager to continually bat Pedro in a spot where he is going to struggle.  Why not hit him where he’s had success before?  He really can’t hit much worse than he already has.
Another reason why he should be moved up in the order is that he has absolutely no protection behind him.  This means that when Pedro bats seventh, all he has behind him in the lineup is the eighth and ninth hitters, therefore the opposing pitchers can just pitch around Pedro to get to hitters that are less likely to do damage on offense.  They can throw him less hittable pitches because they don’t need to throw to him.  As a pitcher, I know I would much rather face Clint Barmes than Pedro Alvarez because Alvarez has the ability to hit any pitch out of the park, and Barmes does not have that talent.  Also, pitchers are even less obliged to throw to the seventh hitter with the pitcher only two spots behind.  The seventh spot in the order is not a good spot for a young player to hit, especially when they are struggling to the extent that Alvarez is.
The final point that I will say is simple: “Why Not”?  What is it going to hurt if we move the lineup around a little?  Coming into Sunday, I read somewhere that the Pirates are last in the league in runs scored with 29, and the second to last team has 42.  That’s a 13 run difference between us and the second worst offense in 14 games to this point.  We barely average over two runs a game.  I really don’t think that moving our potential best hitter is going to hurt the club in any way.  A lineup that Hurdle has been using a lot is 1. Presley 2. Tabata 3. McCutchen 4. Walker 5. Jones 6. Barajas 7. Alvarez 8. Barmes 9. Pitcher.  Tabata is batting .140, Walker is batting .239, and Barajas is batting .091.  Batting Tabata and Walker ahead of Alvarez is definitely understandable, but I cannot comprehend why Barajas has been put ahead of Pedro.  Pedro has more power and much better overall hitting ability, not to mention it was only one year ago that people thought of Pedro as the savior of the Pirates.  I can’t see any reasoning that would have it make sense to put him behind a career .236 hitter who is hitting .091 this year.  There can be no negative effect on moving Pedro up to sixth or even fifth, because the Pirates have had no real production out of these spots with others occupying them.  So, why not bat our best power hitter in either of those spots?  We can’t get any worse than what we already are. Yes, Pedro Alvarez has struggled for the Pirates in the last two seasons.  But, the Pirates have also struggled as a team in that same time.  Their offense was not good last year, finishing 27th in the MLB in runs scored and home runs.  Alvarez has the ability to produce runs in different ways, and has the power to lead the team in homers.  But, batting him in the lower third of the order will not bring out his potential, and will only cause him to continue to struggle and keep his confidence plummeting.  To help him and the team improve, it is imperative that you move Pedro to either the fifth or sixth spot in the order, where he has had success in the past.  The Pirates’ offense has been so bad to a point that moving around the batting lineup really can’t hurt the team’s run production, and can only have a positive effect.  Pedro could be the best hitter in our lineup, so why not give him a better chance to do that?

Pirates Prospect: Dan Gamache

Dan Gamache was selected by the Pirates in the 2011 amateur draft out of Auburn, where he played third base.  Gamache hit very well in his first two years of college, with an OPS of 1.146 in his first year and 1.024 in his second year.  His production declined in his third year of college, but he still hit for a decent OPS of .878, leading to his selection in the sixth round of the draft.
In college, Gamache didn't hit for a lot of power, which assisted in the Pirates' decision to move him over to second base as a pro, where his offense was more suitable for the position.  He struggled in the field in his 26 games for the Pirates in the rookie level Gulf Coast League and State College (Short Season)  last year, where he committed nine errors.  Six of these errors came at third, with the other three coming at second.  However, Gamache is said to be a strong defender with good range and a good arm, so these struggles shouldn't continue down the road.  So far with Low-A West Virginia in 2012, he has played six games at second and six games as the DH, and has yet to play third.
As for his hitting, Gamache has yet to impress with his bat.  In his limited time in the minors, he has hit for .262 average and .695 OPS in a total of 126 at bats, all in the lower levels of the minors.  For a hitter that had success for three years in college, you would expect better production.  To this point in 2012, he has improved slightly with a .268 average and .744 OPS.  It is still very early in his career, so there is definitely a chance that his offensive numbers will rise in the future.
Gamache is still young at 21 years old, and has good defensive ability and is talented enough to hit, at least at the lower levels.  He will probably stay at second base for the most part down the road, but with fellow prospect Jodaneli Carvajal playing primarily second base, Gamache will probably see at lot of time as the DH. At the plate, he could hit for a decent average, but unless he adds power to his game, he will probably end up as an organizational player in the upper levels of the minors.

If you want to see a certain prospect profiled, tweet his name to me @mikemaw45

Pirates Prospect Posts

I will start to have new posts about prospects as a new feature on Bloggin Buccos, hopefully daily.  I have already posted my first one about Alen Hanson because of his hot start, but new posts will generally be about a random prospect, or any prospect that readers would like to see profiled.
If there is a player that you want to see profiled, tweet the prospect's name to me @mikemaw45

Pirates Prospect: Alen Hanson (SS)

In my post about potential “breakout” prospects for the Pittsburgh Pirates, one of the players that I profiled was Alen Hanson.  Hanson is a 19 year old shortstop currently playing for Low-A West Virginia in the South Atlantic League.  For a quick look at Hanson, refer to the post I mentioned above at http://thefuturists.mlblogs.com/2012/04/15/pittsburgh-pirates-breakout-prospect-candidates-2/.

Hanson is praised as being a “true shortstop”, having good range and defensive ability.  He is also a plus runner who has the ability to hit for average in the future.  And so far this year, Hanson has shown power that was not present in his first two years in the Pirates’ organization, with four home runs in his first 52 at bats this year, compared to four home runs 452 at bats in the minors.  Although it is very unlikely that he continues to hit home runs at this pace, he could eventually end up hitting 10-20 home runs a year in the majors.  That is still impressive for a shortstop listed at 5’11” and 152 pounds.  
It will be interesting to see if Hanson can continue to hit for a good average along with a good OPS in 2012 because he had a similar hot start last year in the rookie level Gulf Coast League, only to see his numbers drop drastically as the season progressed.  ESPN writer Keith Law said that Hanson has “a chance to really hit”, but a position prospect’s ability to hit can not truly be determined until they reach the upper levels of the minors, where they will face more advanced pitchers who work with more breaking pitches and have more experience.  Hanson won’t reach the AA level until 2014 if everything goes right, hoping he can have success in his first full season in Low-A ball in 2012 and then spend 2013 in High-A ball.  From there we will be able to better see what kind of player Hanson is.  
For now, Alen Hanson looks like a player who can handle the shortstop position very well, has great speed, can hit for a good average, and can hit for some surprising power for his size.  He has the highest upside of any shortstop prospect in the Pirates minor league system, and if he continues his success in the lower levels, he has the chance to be a top 100 prospect in the minors in the next few years.

Breakout Prospect Candidates

Over the past few seasons the Pittsburgh Pirates have accumulated a lot of young, raw talent in the lower levels of their minor league system, via the draft and international signings.  The Pirates have some high profile prospects in their organization, most notably Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, and Starling Marte, but are said to lack depth after these type of players.  But with all the young talent, that problem can definitely be resolved.  

There are multiple players in the Pirates system that could be “breakout” prospects this year.  A few players from recent drafts that could receive this label are: Stetson Allie (2nd round, 2010), Zack Von Rosenberg (6th, 2009),  and Mel Rojas Jr. (3rd, 2010).  International signings that could be breakout prospects are: Jose Osuna, Willy Garcia, Alen Hanson, Jordaneli Carvajal, and Gregory Polanco.  In this post, I will evaluate five of these players that I believe are the most likely to have “breakout” years.

Stetson Allie
This was my write-up for Allie back in September when I released my top 30 prospects for Bloggin Buccos.

6.) Stetson Allie--RHP--20:  With Allie, there is a lot of risk involved, but the reward can be very high.  He hadn’t really pitched a good amount before his senior year in high school, but he had great natural pitches and velocity (hitting triple digits often)  and pitched well enough to earn the #8 prospect in the 2010 pre-draft rankings by Baseball America.  He fell to the Pirates in the second round because of the money he wanted, but the Pirates were able to sign him for a $2.25 million bonus.  Some expected him to begin the season with West Virginia, but that wouldn’t have been a good decision due to his lack of experience on the mound.  He made his debut with short-season State College when their season started, and originally pitched out of the rotation.  His control was a major question mark coming into the season, and he showed why that was.  Allie struggled with control throughout the season, and was moved to the bullpen to work on it.  The control never really came, and he ended up walking 29 batters in 26 innings, but he also struck out 28.  A positive sign from the season was that hitters only batted .208 against him, so if he can better control his pitches, he could be something special.  Some see his long term role as a power closer, but for now the Pirates will most likely continue his development as a starter.  I believe he will start in extended Spring Training next year, but he could be in West Virginia sometime in late April or May if he makes strides with his control.  If everything goes right, Allie can be a top of the rotation starter with a fastball nearing 100 MPH, along with a great breaking slider that can reach the low 90’s.

As it turned out, Allie started the season for low-A West Virginia after showing somewhat improved control in spring training.  In his first start, however,  his control was non-existent as he walked four batters in 0.1 innings, allowing two earned runs.  He missed his next start with tightness in his elbow.  Reports from minor league spring training seemed positive, stating that his control looked much better, but his first start seemed extremely far from that.  But, if he can start throwing more strikes, he will be a very interesting prospect.  He has two plus pitches when he can throw in the strike zone, but still has to develop a changeup to have success as a starter.  
Allie is very hard to hit, but will need better control if he is to stay a starting pitcher.  If his control really is getting better and his first start was just a fluke, he could be an excellent starting pitcher, possibly breaking back into Baseball America’s top 100 prospects again, where he was ranked #79 heading into 2011.

Zack Von Rosenberg
My write-up for Von Rosenberg in September for Bloggin Buccos top 30 Pirates prospects:

17.) Zack Von Rosenberg--RHP--20:  ZVR had a terrible year on paper.  He had a 5.73 ERA while spending the entire season at low-A West Virginia pitching out of the rotation.  However, ZVR put up some impressive secondary numbers, with 8.2 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 ratios, to go along with a decent 1.32 WHIP.  A lot of his struggles this year can be explained by his lack of command, leaving the ball up in the zone too often.  The Pirates teach their minor league pitchers to better command their fastball in the lower levels, so we can expect this to improve moving forward.  I ranked ZVR at #17, but I feel like he could make a case for the top 10 Pirates prospects because of his potential.  Baseball America ranked him as the #41 prospect coming out of the 2009 draft, and he has a good amount of upside.  His secondary pitches worked very well for him when he used them more, and he finished the season strongly, with a 2.66 ERA in his final 9 starts.  He also threw six perfect innings in his last start of the year.  If he learns better command of his fastball, ZVR is a definite candidate for a breakout season at Bradenton next year, where he is expected to begin the season.

Von Rosenberg is on the low-A West Virginia roster to begin the season, making it his second year at that level.  Leaving the ball up in the zone will cause problems for any pitcher, especially if they throw 88-91 MPH with their fastball, as Von Rosenberg does.  However, ZVR has a projectable build, meaning he has a chance to add velocity moving forward.  He possesses a good curveball that helped him out later in the 2011 season.  His secondary numbers from 2011 are definitely encouraging, and keeping the ball lower in the zone will allow him to lower his 10.2 H/9 from 2011.  In 2009 and 2010, ZVR was viewed as a prospect that could eventually become a top of the rotation starter, and at 21 years old, there is still time for him to develop into that role.  

Mel Rojas Jr.
Rojas came in at number 27 in my rankings in September.

27.) Mel Rojas Jr.--CF--21:  When it comes to players like Rojas, his prospect status is based purely on his raw talent, not on his stats.  He has not put up strong numbers to this point, with a .246/.312./.335 line for Low-A West Virginia in 2011.  That’s a .646 OPS, not very impressive for a player with his talent at such a low level.  However, when he was drafted in 2010 out of Junior College, some scouts said that he has the ability to develop into a five tool player.  He has good speed and has showed he can play center field with a good arm, but his hitting has not lived up to expectations.  He started to turn things around at the end of this season, so that should earn him a promotion to Bradenton next year.  He is too raw to project what he could be in the majors, but Rojas has enough potential and talent to take him to that level.

Rojas did end up making the next step to High-A Bradenton in 2012 as the starting right fielder, with Evan Chambers starting in center field.  He’s gotten off to a good start in his first nine games, with a .333 average and .896 OPS.  He has shown to be a good fielder with speed, so the main concern with him will be his ability to hit, and his ability to hit for power.  Rojas has raw power, which he displays in batting practice, but has yet to show that in games, with only five home runs 708 minor league at bats in the lower levels.  It’s been a small sample size so far, but if he can continue to hit well this season, Rojas definitely has the ability to be a five-tool talent that could join a list of very talented young outfielders in the Pirates’ organization.

Alen Hanson
Hanson did not make my top 30 prospects list, but was a candidate to take one of the final spots.  He played 2011 in the Gulf Coast League after a successful 2010 season in the Dominican Summer League where he hit .324 with an .830 OPS.  Hanson has good speed and good defense, but after a hot start last year, he trailed off and ended up hitting .260 with a .767 OPS.  He had 22 extra base hits in 208 at bats, which helped raise his OPS to a decent level.  In 2012, Hanson is off to an amazing start for Low-A West Virginia, batting .404 in his first 52 at batswith four home runs (he had four homers in his first 452 at bats in the minors), along with nine RBI, five doubles and a triple.  Hanson has all the tools to be an above average player in the majors, and if he continues to swing a hot bat, he could be a top 100 prospect in the upcoming years.

Gregory Polanco
Along with Hanson, Polanco was not on my top 30 prospects list, but was not in contention for any of the final spots.  He struggled in the past, with a combined .218 average in 357 at bats in the rookie level Gulf Coast League.  But in 2012 he seems to have figured some of his hitting troubles out, as he is off to a great start, batting .333 in 39 at bats with four home runs and 12 RBI.  Polanco possesses good speed and has the ability to play center field, but will probably end up at a corner outfield spot in the future.  It was a surprise that Polanco started the year in Low-A, but so far he has adjusted very well.  He has the natural ability to continue hitting for a good average and power, to go along with a good amount of stolen bases.


The Pirates have a lot of young players in the lower levels of their organization that have a lot of raw talent, but have yet to have success.  Recently, the team has seen prospects like Robbie Grossman and Kyle McPherson break out, and many more have the chance to in the near future.  Also, guys in the upper levels that were once top prospects that could develop into strong major league options after struggling in the recent years are Tim Alderson (Baseball America’s #45 prospect in 2009), Andrew Lambo (#49 in 2009), Tony Sanchez (#46 in 2011), Gorkys Hernandez (#62 in 2009), and Bryon Morris.  Depth could be an issue for the Pirates for now, but the talent is there to have one of the top minor league systems.

When Should Starling Marte Be Called Up?

In our rankings last September, Starling Marte was the #3 prospect in the Pirates’ organization.  He was coming off a year where he hit for a .332 average and an .870 OPS, along with 12 home runs and 24 stolen bases.  He followed his stellar 2011 campaign with a great offensive showing early in spring training this year with the major league club, hitting .520 with a 1.440 OPS and three home runs in 25 at bats.  This had many fans calling for the team to keep Marte on the major league roster to start the season, but management made the right decision by sending him to AAA Indianapolis to work on plate patience and to get time at the corner outfield positions, where he will most likely play as long as Andrew McCutchen is in center for the Pirates.  But having Marte one step away from the majors in AAA leads to the question, when will he get the call?
Marte’s arrival in the majors really depends on a couple factors.  Obviously, one of them is how he is performing in AAA.  If he continues to hit like he has, then it will be very difficult for the Pirates to keep him down.  The other factor in his call up will be how Alex Presley and Jose Tabata perform.  If one of these two struggle, then that will lead to a higher possibility of Marte getting the call.  Likewise, if both of these players exceed expectations, then that will lower the chances of Marte having a spot on the major league roster.  If Marte doesn’t respond well to the more advanced AAA pitching, it will not matter how Presley and Tabata hit, and will show that Marte needs more time in the minors.
As mentioned in the first paragraph, Marte needs to work on his plate patience and get more experience in left and/or right field before he can be called up to the majors.  In his minor league career leading up to this season, he has struck out in 21.6% of his at-bats.  That’s not too bad, and he even lowered his strikeout rate to 18.7% in 2011.  However, he has a career walk rate of 4.7%, and 3.8% in 2011.  That is bad.  Obviously, this hasn’t really affected his performance too much in the minors, but if he continues this, major league pitchers will exploit this weakness.  Marte is an aggressive hitter, many times swinging at pitches that are not in the strike zone.  But, if he would allow these pitches to go buy as balls, he would get more walks and see better pitches to hit later in the count.  Not only would this raise his on base percentage, it could also raise his average because of the more hittable pitches.  
Marte is a very good defensive centerfielder, probably better than McCutchen.  However, he has very little experience at the corner outfield positions in the higher levels, and in spring training, he looked a little lost at those spots.  For the Pirates, Marte will most likely play left field, where he has only played seven times in the minors.  Being a good fielder, this shouldn’t take long for Marte to adjust to, but it is better to get him used to the position in the minors, rather than with the major league club.  PNC Park has a very large left field, so it will be good having a player with Marte’s speed and defense to man that position.
So, when should Marte get called up?  The earliest time I could see the Pirates calling up Marte is early to mid June.  This will give the team enough time to evaluate his performance at AAA, and to see how Presley and Tabata handle themselves at the majors.  If Marte is hitting .300-.315 or better with an OPS of over .820 and his strikeout and walk numbers improve, then he should get serious consideration by the beginning of July.  Even if Presley and Tabata are hitting well, you can’t ignore Marte’s talent and potential impact on the team, and it really wouldn’t benefit him to stay in AAA.  In the majors, Marte could be an .300+ hitter with 15-20 homers a year, with great speed and great defense.  The Pirates could have a very good duo with Marte and McCutchen, and hopefully we will get a taste of what that is like at some point this summer.