Should the Pirates Re-Sign Marlon Byrd?

For most of the 2013 season, the Pirates had a hole in their lineup at right field.  The team tried to fill this hole internally, with options like Josh Harrison, Brandon Inge, Garrett Jones, Andrew Lambo, Alex Presley, Jose Tabata, and Travis Snider.  Harrison will never be able to be a major league starter, Inge should never be mentioned again, and Presley never regained his 2011 form before being shipped to Minnesota along with Duke Welker in the Justin Morneau trade.  Jones wasn't the same as last year, and was also needed in the first base platoon, and Lambo never received much of a chance to prove himself.  This left Jose Tabata and Travis Snider as the two options who gave the Pirates the most hope to fill that hole in right field.  Tabata quietly put together a solid season, arguably the best offensive showing he has had in his time in the majors.  He had a career high .771 OPS, a 119 OPS+ (to put that in perspective, Starling Marte had a 122 OPS+, and Pedro Alvarez had an OPS+ of 116), and also showed more power with a career high .429 SLG and .146 ISO.  The problems with Tabata were that he was injured for much of the season, only posting 341 plate appearances, and was also very inconsistent in the time he did play.  Here is his OPS by month:

April/March: .549

May: .991

June: Did not play

July: .631

August: .851

September/October: .844

As you can see, Tabata's solid season was fueled by a very strong May, and by a great end to the season in the final two months.  With Snider, the Pirates had a former top prospect who was given a chance to play every day from the beginning of the season.  The hope was that he could regain some of the power that once made him the number six prospect in the game before the 2009 season, but after hitting only three homers in 226 at bats in the first half, it became clear that wouldn't happen.  This led to there being a lot of rumors that the Pirates were going to add a right field bat at the July 31st trade deadline, with the options being Alex Rios, Nate Schierholtz, Hunter Pence, Giancarlo Stanton (the Pirates did make a strong push for him), and Marlon Byrd.  However, the trade deadline came and went, and no deal was made.  Rios was eventually sent to the Rangers in August, while the other four stayed put until late August.  On August 28th, the Pirates completed a trade that would send Dilson Herrera and Victor Black to the Mets in exchange for Marlon Byrd and John Buck, along with $250K from the Mets.  The Pirates were making a playoff push, and acquiring Byrd filled the hole that the Pirates were trying to fill the entire year.  

Byrd's time with the Pirates was very successful, as he put up a line of .318/.357/.486 in 107 at bats, along with three home runs and a .843 OPS.  Byrd also performed well in the playoffs, posting a .982 OPS and hitting a crucial home run in the Wild Card game against the Reds.  So, with the Pirates not having a definite option in right field heading into 2014, it would make sense for the team to re-sign Marlon Byrd, right?  Not necessarily.

Byrd's time in Pittsburgh was great, providing both offense and defense, as well as being a positive influence in the clubhouse.  However, there are a few reasons why the Pirates should be hesitant to re-sign Byrd this offseason.  These reasons include questions as to whether he can repeat his performance, the price he will command, and the other internal options that the Pirates have.  Here we will go into a little more depth about these reasons to avoid signing Marlon Byrd for the 2014 season.

Can Byrd Repeat His Performance?

Statistically, 2013 was the best year of Marlon Byrd's career,  with career highs in home runs, OPS, OPS+, WAR, and wRC+.  That's good for Byrd, but it came in his age 35 season, while most players reach their prime around ages 27-30.  Also, this stellar year came after the worst year of Byrd's career, where he posted a .488 OPS in 143 at bats, managing a WAR of -0.5.  Byrd saw his BABIP jump to .353 in 2013, which is much higher than his career number of .325, which is influenced by this season.  Byrd struck out more and walked less this year, which is always a red flag, especially for a player who is entering his late 30's.  His home run to fly ball ratio was excessively higher than his career number, with a 16.4% ratio in 2013, and 9.3% career number, which explained his increase in power.  Also, you can't forget his suspension for a performance enhancing drug in 2012 (which he maintains was used for medical purposes, not baseball).  All of these facts make it hard for me to believe that Byrd will be able to repeat this performance in 2014, and that he was a little lucky this season.  I'm not the only one who thinks this, as the Steamer projection from Fangraphs and steamerprojection.com have Byrd posting a .735 OPS in 2014.  With the amount of money he is likely to receive in a new contract, would that production be worth it for the Pirates?

How Much Will It Take To Sign Byrd?

Byrd won't be receiving a qualifying offer, which is up to $14.1 million this season, but he will still come fairly expensive this offseason.  The free agent market for outfielders this season will be affected by the extension given to Hunter Pence at the end September, where he was given a five year, $90 million deal.  There are four or five outfielders that will be ranked ahead of Byrd this offseason, with those players being Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Beltran, Shin-Soo Choo, with Nelson Cruz being in a similar range with Byrd.  Deals given to those players could also drive the market price up for Byrd, forging a price tag that is far above what he is really worth.  I would expect to see Byrd signing for over $10 million with how the current market is, especially if teams act quick to avoid a bidding war, which is something that the Pirates have done in recent years (think Russell Martin and Clint Barmes).  If you think that price is too high, remember that Shane Victorino was signed to a three year, $39 million contract before 2013 after posting a .704 OPS.  The Pirates have enough room in their payroll to give Byrd that kind of contract, but that money would be better used to bring in a first baseman or to sign another player to an extension, like Marte, Alvarez, or even Gerrit Cole.

Internal Options

The Pirates do still have some internal options they could use to take over the right field position.  As I mentioned above, Jose Tabata put together a very nice season in 2013, possibly the best of his career.  He was inconsistent, but once he was receiving consistent playing time in the final two months, he was able to provide a lot of offense for the playoff push.  It is worth mentioning that Tabata will be playing the majority of the 2014 season at age 25, and that he has never spent a full season in the majors.  He will be making $3 million in 2014, and it may be wise to see what the Pirates have in a young player who was such a vital part of their future only a few years ago.  Another player the Pirates could give a chance to is Andrew Lambo.  Lambo, the number 49 prospect in baseball heading into 2009, was largely forgotten about heading into the 2013 season, but he brought himself back into the spotlight after hitting 33 home runs across AA, AAA, and the majors this year.  Lambo started out hot in AA, but there were questions as to whether he could continue this production at higher levels, as he spent parts of six seasons at AA.  He answered that question by continuing his performance at AAA, posting an even higher OPS at the level (.933) compared to AA (.910).  He was called up to the majors in late August, and it seemed like he was going to be the starting right fielder, but the team traded for Marlon Byrd soon after, and Lambo never received regular playing time.  Lambo would provide the Pirates with another potential power bat in their lineup, and could also get on base at a good rate.  If the Pirates don't like the idea of starting either Tabata or Lambo full time, they could also use Tabata against lefties and Lambo against righties.  Lambo destroyed righties in the minors this year, posting a .944 OPS against them, but Tabata actually hit better against righties this year, as well.  Tabata has slightly better career numbers against lefties, so you would hope that he could produce well in his platoon role.
The third internal option the Pirates could have at some point in the 2014 season is Gregory Polanco.  Polanco is currently the number two prospect in the system behind Jameson Taillon, and one could make an argument for Polanco being ahead of Taillon, and is also ranked as the 13th best prospect in the game by Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com.  Polanco didn't have the same success that he had at the plate in 2012, but he still put up a solid season at higher levels, with a line of .285/.356/.434, with 12 home runs, 38 stolen bases, and a .791 OPS.  Polanco is a true five-tool talent, with the ability to hit for average and power, along with a plus arm, plus-plus speed and a plus-plus glove in center.  Like Marte, Polanco is good enough defensively in center field to move McCutchen to a corner spot, but that isn't going to happen so Polanco will be used in right when he reaches the majors.  The big question is when will Polanco be ready?  He was in a similar situation as Marte was coming into 2012, and Marte was called up in July, which could be used as a good timeframe for Polanco.


Once again, Marlon Byrd was great in his time with the Pirates.  The Pirates have already shown interest in re-signing him, which wouldn't be a terrible move, but it wouldn't be the right move.  The market price to sign Byrd this offseason will be driven up by recent signings like Hunter Pence, and could rise even more with the signings of other free agent outfielders.  Also, the Pirates have some talented internal options with Jose Tabata and Andrew Lambo, both of whom deserve chances to prove themselves at the major league level.  The Pirates have the number 13 prospect in baseball with Gregory Polanco, and he could be ready to contribute to the major league team at some point in 2014.  The Pirates could very well get more production out of their internal options than Marlon Byrd could provide them in 2014, and at a much cheaper price.  Although Byrd put up All-Star numbers in 2013, it is very unlikely he repeats those numbers, and the Pirates will be better off letting him sign with another team and starting the season with Tabata and/or Lambo in right field, with Polanco waiting in the wings.

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment section below.

The Pirates Shouldn't Pursue Justin Morneau

Jon Heyman is reporting that Justin Morneau is "drawing interest" from the Pirates, which would not be a good move for the Pirates.  Morneau has a batting line of .262/.323/.393 in 374 at bats this year, with eight home runs and a .716 OPS.
Morneau would be a rental for the Pirates, as his six year deal that began in 2008 comes to an end after this season, and he will become a free agent.  With his contract status (he is making $14 million this year) and lack of production, Morneau should not cost much at all from a prospect status, but there is really no reason for the Pirates to make a deal for him.  Morneau's OPS+ of 96 is lower than both Garrett Jones's (107) and Gaby Sanchez's (118), so he would not be an upgrade at the position offensively.  He also wouldn't help the team much defensively, as his defense has regressed over the past few years.
Morneau is in his age 32 season, so he is past his prime and there are no indications that he will improve upon his current numbers.  He has a .561 OPS in his last eleven games, and has really struggled against left handed pitchers, with a .620 OPS against them in 113 at bats this year.  He's also not getting unlucky, as his .301 Batting Average on Balls In Play this year  is actually higher than his career number of .294.
A deal for Morneau wouldn't make much sense for the Pirates, and any deal they make should be for an upgrade in right field, where they really don't have an answer outside of Alex Presley at this point.  The Pirates are interested in two of the Cubs' outfielders in Nate Schierholtz and David DeJesus.  I would prefer Schierholtz out of those two, as he is cheaper and is providing more offensive production.

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.

Three Trade Ideas For The Pirates

The Major League Baseball trade deadline is only a few days away, and with the Pirates currently 1.5 games out of first in their division and 8.0 games ahead of the third team in the wild card race, the Bucs are expected to make a move.  Right field has been an offensive hole for the Pirates in 2013, the team could use an upgrade at first, and a major league team can never have too much pitching.  There have been some names that the Pirates are said to have interest in, including Alex Rios, Nate Schierholtz, Hunter Pence, and Bud Norris.  While these players would fill positional needs for the team, they aren't necessarily great fits for the organization.  Rios would only provide a slight upgrade in right, and with his contract of $12 million in 2013 and $12.5 million in 2014 (with a $13.5 million team option for 2015), it wouldn't make sense to give up any kind of prospect for his services.  Schierholtz is having a very good year this year, but has been used almost exclusively as a left handed platoon player, something the Pirates may already have.  He has a career .691 OPS against lefties, so wouldn't be much use there.  If the Pirates could get him for a cheap price, he may be a good target, but as possibly the most sought after right fielder on the market, he will only be had for a steeper price that is much higher than his actual value.  For a smaller market team like the Pirates, it's not a good idea to go after a short term slight upgrade at the expense of your future.  Pence may not even be on the market, but he would be completely overvalued for his production and would leave after two months.  As for Bud Norris as an option, I'm going to just say no and hope I never hear of it again.  So, if the Pirates need to make a move, who should they target?  Here are three trade ideas, some that could help the Pirates now, and some that could help them in the future.


Toronto Blue Jays:  1B Adam Lind for IF Ivan De Jesus and RHP Stolmy Pimentel
Lind is in the middle of his best season since his stellar 2009 campaign, and currently has an .848 with 12 home runs in 298 at bats.  Lind comes with a relatively cheap price of $5 million for this year, with club options for the next three years at $7.0 million, $7.5 million, and $8.0 million.  Lind has been more of a platoon player in Toronto, a position that he would remain in with Pittsburgh, pushing Garrett Jones into right field against lefties.  The price wouldn't be too high for Lind, and the fact that De Jesus and Pimentel could contribute to the Blue Jays this year would make this a do-able deal for each team.  Lind doesn't produce a high WAR and has been inconsistent over the past few years, so the deal would not require a top prospect.

Seattle Mariners:  1B Kendrys Morales and OF Dustin Ackley for OF  Jerry Sands, RHP Nick Kingham, OF Willy Garcia, and RHP Vin Mazzaro
This is a deal that could potentially help the Pirates now and in the future.  The addition of Morales would give the Pirates an everyday first baseman who can hit from both sides of the plate, without a weakness from either side.  He is in his final year of arbitration and will become a free agent at the end of the season, but the Pirates could bring him back with an extension and promise of being the everyday first baseman, something the Pirates may not have in their system (although Alex Dickerson is looking more and more like that player).  Ackley was the second pick in the 2009 draft for the Mariners, but has really struggled at the major league level over the past couple seasons.  The Pirates could make a Travis Snider-like deal for him, including reliever Vin Mazzaro in the deal like they did with Brad Lincoln in 2012.

Miami Marlins:  OF Giancarlo Stanton for RHP Jameson Taillon, OF Gregory Polanco, C Tony Sanchez, RHP Duke Welker
OK, this trade will most likely never happen.  Stanton is the best player on a young team that is very exciting, with other players like Jose Fernandez, Christian Yelich, and Jake Marisnick.  But, Stanton displayed a lot of displeasure with the Marlins after their trading binge over the offseason, so a lot of people speculated that Stanton would be available for trades as well.  To this point, the Marlins' management and ownership have insisted that he isn't available, but the Pirates have been said to be calling The Marlins very often regarding Stanton.  This trade would give the Pirates one of the best right fielders and power hitters in the game until at least 2016, and could be even longer if the Pirates could sign him to an extension.  The Marlins would be receiving two of the top 15 prospects in the MLB for Stanton in Taillon and Polanco.  Judging by how the Marlins have been aggressively pushing players to the majors this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see both Taillon and Polanco on the Marlins in 2013, were a trade to occur.  This would be huge trade for both teams, and one that could definitely benefit both teams.  The Pirates would have a long term solution in right, which has been a weak spot this season, and the Marlins could have a potential ace and five star center fielder.  As a Pirates fan, just think about how great it would be to have Marte, McCutchen, and Stanton in your outfield.


The trade deadline is quickly approaching, and there is some pressure on the Pirates to make a trade.  Do they have to?  No.  Do I suggest they make a trade?  Not necessarily, these are just three trade ideas that I think would improve the team now and possibly in the future.  I would love for the Pirates to get Giancarlo Stanton, and the Pirates would love that too, but it is a very unlikely deal.  There haven't been many, if any, rumors about any of these deals actually being talked about, but they are some thought provoking trades a few days ahead of the deadline.

If any of our readers have any trade ideas, I'd love to hear and discuss them!  You can leave you ideas in the comment section below, or tell me on twitter @mikemaw45.

Would Alex Rios Be An Upgrade/Worth It For The Pirates?

Over the last few weeks, there have been multiple rumors that the Pirates have real interest in the Alex Rios, the right fielder for the Chicago White Sox.  There was even a moment when Pirates fans thought that maybe a deal had gone down between the two teams when Rios was taken out of a game within twenty minutes of Pirates' top shortstop Alen Hanson being taken out of his game.  That was soon found to be a pure coincidence, as Rios was taken out for not hustling, and Hanson was in the second game of a double header in which his team had a huge win.

Right field has been a weakness for the Pirates this year, with Travis Snider, who came into the season as the starter at the position, having an OPS of .629 coming into the game on July 24th.  The Pirates have also used Garrett Jones, Alex Presley, Brandon Inge, Jose Tabata, Josh Harrison, and even Russell Martin at the position.  Tabata is the current starter at right, and after a hot start after his return from injury, has settled down to a .738 OPS in 135 at bats on the season.  Rios currently has a batting line of .278/.333/.442 in 371 at bats, with 12 home runs, 21 stolen bases, and an OPS of .775.  Those numbers would clearly suggest that he has been better than what the Pirates have in right, but would he really be an upgrade?

If you look at it from a player vs. player standpoint, Rios would surely be an upgrade over Tabata, Presley, Snider, and Andrew Lambo.  But, would he be an upgrade over a potential platoon between Tabata and any one of the other three lefty options? (I'm leaving Garrett Jones out, as he should be part of a platoon at first with Gaby Sanchez)  Here we are going to examine the potential production of those platoon options, and compare those to the potential production from Alex Rios, who is a right handed hitter.  We are going to start by evaluating Jose Tabata's side of the platoon, which would be against left handed pitching.

Jose Tabata vs. Lefties
I'm going to start this section by giving a stat that is somewhat surprising: Jose Tabata actually has a higher OPS+ than Alex Rios this season, with Tabata's number at 109 and Rios' at 106.  That doesn't mean Tabata has been better than Rios, and that is conveyed by Tabata's 0.0 WAR, compared to Rios' WAR of 1.4 (those numbers according to Baseball Reference).
Over his career, Tabata hasn't really shown much, if any, of a platoon split, with a career .720 OPS against lefties and a .711 OPS against righties.  This season, Tabata has actually had a pretty large reverse platoon split, with a .775 OPS  against righties and a .632 OPS against lefties.  For any of these platoons to have any chance of working, Tabata's numbers would have to gravitate closer to that .720 career number, and would actually need some improvement beyond that number.

Travis Snider vs. Righties
In Snider's major league career, his OPS vs. right handed pitchers in almost 100 points higher than his OPS against lefties, with a .721 number against righties and .630 against lefties.  Neither of those numbers warrant him a starting position, even in a platoon situation.  Snider's numbers vs righties have been even worse this year, with a .662 OPS, meaning Snider shouldn't be starting against any pitcher at this point.

Alex Presley vs. Righties
Presley has been a decent hitter against righties in his career, with a .749 OPS, but that would be enough to give him a spot in a platoon role.  On the season Presley has a solid .824 OPS against righties, but that comes in a very small sample size of 34 at bats, so his career .749 number would give a better indication of the number he would put up over the rest of the season in a platoon role.

Andrew Lambo vs. Righties
Lambo's numbers come with the disclaimer that they have been against minor league pitchers.  Still, his numbers have been very impressive against right handers this year, with a .304 average, 19 home runs, and 1.002 OPS in 261 at bats.  Lambo would definitely be a good platoon option for the Pirates, probably the best the team has for this situation (outside of Jones), but at this point there doesn't seem to be a match for him in right field.

Alex Rios
Rios' OPS of .775 against any pitcher this year would be better than any of the Pirates players' splits, so Rios would definitely be an upgrade over any situation the Pirates currently have in their organization.  Rios is only slightly better against lefties in his career, and the Pirates wouldn't trade for Rios to simply be a platoon player regardless.


The answer to this question was much more simple than I anticipated, as Rios would clearly be an upgrade over any player or platoon situation the Pirates could put together in right field.  Does that mean the team needs to trade for him?  It certainly doesn't, but these numbers do show that the Pirates are going to have a big weakness at the position during the pennant race unless they make a move.  The trade market is pretty weak this year, but the Pirates don't need to make a trade for Rios.  It would make some sense, but they would be taking on Rios' $12.5 million contract in 2014, and would have a $14 million club option for 2015.  If the Pirates acquired Rios on the July 31st deadline, they would be paying him a minimum of $17.82 million over the 2013-2014 seasons, assuming they buyout his option year in 2015.  That number could be lowered if the White Sox offer some salary relief, but I would suggest against that for the Pirates as that would cost a higher grade prospect, something that Rios, who is 32 years old, is not worth at this point in his career.  Rios has a 4.3 WAR over the past two and a half seasons, and his numbers will most likely decline as he grows older.

Rios would provide the Pirates with a short term upgrade in right field for the 2013 playoff run, but his contract status, price for a trade, and age would make it a somewhat foolish move for the Pirates.  Jose Tabata has enough talent and has the potential to hold down the right field spot, at least until top prospect Gregory Polanco is ready to take over at some point in 2014.  The Pirates could always look for a cheaper option like they did with Travis Snider in 2012, but those are very rare on the current trade market.  As I said in my post about if the Pirates should pursue a starting pitcher, I find the team better served to stand pat with what they have, as there are no real upgrades on the trade market that would be worth the price.

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment section below.

Pirates Designate Inge For Assignment, Recall Walker and Black

It may seem long overdue, but the Brandon Inge era is over now in Pittsburgh.  Inge, who signed a one year, $1.25 million contract in the offseason, had a very forgettable season for the Pirates this year, with a .181/.204/.238 line, along with one home run in 104 at bats.  Those numbers produced a .442 OPS, 25 OPS+, and -0.6 WAR according to Baseball-Reference.  With that WAR, Inge was tied with Michael McKenry for the title of least valuable player on the Pirates for the 2013 season.  Inge played five different positions for the Pirates, including every infield position and right field.  Since he was designated for assignment, the Pirates have ten days to trade, release, or pass Inge through waivers.  Judging by the way he has played this year, I would assume that he will be released, as there will be no takers for his services.

With Inge being DFA'd and Jason Grilli being sent to the DL today, the Pirates had two open roster spots.  Those spots were taken by second baseman Neil Walker and AAA Indianapolis Indians' closing pitcher, Vic Black.

Walker is in the middle of what seems to be a down year offensively, but he hasn't had much of chance to get on track this year, with multiple stints on the DL keeping him from getting long stretches of at bats.  He has a line of .244/.347/.284 in 250 at bats, including six home runs, 26 RBI, and a .731 OPS.  He will step back into his spot as the everyday second baseman, with Jordy Mercer moving back to shortstop.

Black was the closer for the Pirates AAA affiliate in Indianapolis this season, putting up a 2.31 ERA in 35 IP, including 15 saves.  He has a great K/9 rate, at 13.1, and has shown improved control this year.  Control was his main issue coming into the season, with a career 4.7 BB/9 coming into the season, but his 3.3 BB/9 rate this year show his continuing development.

This is what I said about Black in my 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Prospect Preview:

19) Victor Black--RHP--25--AAA
Black was drafted in the supplemental first round of the 2009 draft, but didn't live up to his hype until last season.  In 2012, he posted a 1.65 ERA in 60 IP, with a 12.8 K/9 and 1.15 WHIP.  Control has been a problem in his career, and that continued in 2012, with a 4.4 BB/9.  Black has a plus fastball that sits 96-98 MPH, touching 99, and pairs that with a plus slider.  If he can improve his control a little, he could be a future option for closer with the Pirates, and that future may not be far away.

Well, the future is now with Victor Black, in a sense that he is now part of the major league bullpen.  He has reached triple digits with his fastball this season, and pairs that with his wipeout slider to make a great two pitch combo.  Black could be one of the top closing options in the coming years when Grilli/Melancon are gone, or begin to struggle.

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment section below.

Should The Pirates Pursue A Starting Pitcher?

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 57-39 on July 21st, something that may sound a little strange to a fanbase that celebrated only 57 wins throughout the entire 2010 season.  Ok, maybe celebrated isn't the right word there.  But the fact is that the team has drastically improved over the last three seasons, and is now only two games back in the NL Central and 7.5 games ahead in the wild card race, with 66 games remaining in the season.  There is no question as to what has put this team in the position they are in, and that is the pitching.  Coming into the game on July 21st, the pitching staff (starters and bullpen) leads the National League in ERA (3.10) and hits allowed, and also ranks fourth with 739 strikeouts.  The trio of Jeff Locke, Francisco Liriano, and A.J. Burnett have a combined 2.54 ERA.  Out of the six pitchers who have started at least seven games, the highest ERA belongs to Gerrit Cole at 3.89.  That group doesn't include Charlie Morton, who has a 3.19 ERA in six starts.  Basically, the Pirates' pitching starting pitching staff has been phenomenal in the innings they have pitched.
With the trade deadline in a little over a week, the rumor mill has been heating up and the Pirates have been connected to a couple names in the starting pitching market.  Those players are Matt Garza of the Cubs and Bud Norris of the Astros.  The Pirates are said to be one of the top options for Garza, and Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times stated that the Pirates were the "team du jour" for Garza.  But, with all the success that the Pirates have had with their starters this season, should the team pursue a starting pitcher?
To answer this question, we have to look at a few factors.  The first factor is the durability and depth of the current rotation.  Secondly, we have to see how the rotation projects for the rest of the season from a statistical standpoint.  Finally, we have to take a look at what it will cost the Pirates to acquire a player like Matt Garza or Bud Norris, and if that package would be worth it.  So, let's get started.

Depth and Durability
To this point in the season, the Pirates have used eleven different starting pitchers, including Burnett, Liriano, Locke, Cole, Morton, Wandy Rodriguez, Jeanmar Gomez, James McDonald, Brandon Cumpton, Jonathan Sanchez, and Phil Irwin.  Out of those players, Rodriguez, McDonald, and Irwin are currently on the DL, and Burnett, Morton, and Liriano have also spent time on the DL during this season (Kyle McPherson, who was battling for the fifth starter spot in spring training, recently had Tommy John surgery on July 10th).  Rodriguez and McDonald aren't expected back until late August or September, and Cumpton and Irwin are spot starters at best this year who aren't ready to spend significant time in a major league rotation.  Sanchez was released in April and has since done terrible for the Dodgers' AAA affiliate.  Also, I don't think Jeanmar Gomez has the ability to be a member of a rotation that is competing for a pennant, as he has not had much previous success in his 38 major league starts before joining the Pirates, and wasn't great in the minors.   That leaves the Pirates with a rotation of Burnett, Liriano, Locke, Cole, and Morton heading into September, which is definitely a good rotation to have.  But, what happens if one of those pitchers goes down with an injury?  Liriano and Morton both have track records of injuries, and Gerrit Cole only pitched 132 innings last year, and is already at 109.2 IP with over two months remaining.  Chances are, at least one of these five is going to go down with an injury, and would you be comfortable with Jeanmar Gomez as the fifth starter in a pennant race?  Other options from AAA that aren't listed above are Stolmy Pimentel and Andy Oliver.  Pimentel got off to a great start in AA, struggled after that, then was promoted to AAA and has a 2.74 ERA in seven starts there.  He also owns a very impressive 0.98 WHIP in 46 AAA innings.  Oliver would only be used in desperate measures, as I'm not positive he's aware that there is a strike zone, with an 8.2 BB/9 in 100 innings.  Fans would be calling for the team to call up top prospect Jameson Taillon, but that just isn't going to happen.
The Pirates currently have five guys that are healthy and good enough to pitch in a contending team's rotation.  After those five guys, there isn't much help on the way until September when Rodriguez should be able to return, barring any setbacks.  That will give the team six good starters in the September playoff race, but until then, the team will be playing with fire as there is a good chance one of the five starters goes down with an injury.  If Jeanmar Gomez would pitch the way he already has in the rotation this year, he would be a fine replacement, but I don't see that as being likely.  James McDonald could also be an option in September if someone goes down with an injury, but otherwise he really has no chance at being in the rotation again this year.


Rotation Projection
In the last section I stated that the Pirates currently have five pitchers that are set to be in the rotation going into September, along with Wandy Rodriguez in September and Jeanmar Gomez being a replacement starter.  As I also previously stated, the rotation has been fantastic this year from a statistical standpoint, but can they keep it up?  Let's take a look at those seven players and see how they project for the remainder of the season.

A.J. Burnett:  Burnett currently has an ERA of 3.07 and xFIP of 3.13, along with a .288 Batting Average of Balls In Play (BABIP), which is very close to his career number of .290.  His other advanced stats line up with his career numbers as well, so it is a safe bet that Burnett will continue to pitch the way he has for the rest of the year.

Francisco Liriano:  I expected Liriano to be due for a big regression before I looked at his advanced stats, but he actually has been pitching better than I thought this year.  He has a 2.44 ERA, which isn't far off his 2.81 FIP or 3.08 xFIP.  His strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career numbers, as is his BABIP and ground ball ratio.  The only thing concerning about Liriano is his Home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB) and left on base percentage (LOB%).  His HR/FB ratio is currently 7.5%, which leads to a 0.44 HR/9 rate.  His career numbers with those are 10.5% and 0.85, which leads me to believe that he will be letting up a few more home runs as the year progresses.  His LOB% is at 82.6%, while his career number is at 70.9%.  That means that he has been getting lucky with year with fly balls and runners on base, and he is due for some regression in that area.  Still, that shouldn't affect him too drastically, and he should still be pitching with an ERA around 3.00-3.50 for the rest of the year.

Jeff Locke:  If there is one player on the team that is due for a big regression, it's Jeff Locke.  His ERA is at 2.11, but his FIP is 3.77 and his xFIP is 4.22.  In fact, coming into his most recent start ZiPS projected him to have a 4.60 ERA for the rest of the year.  Do I think that will happen?  No, but I also don't think he will finish the year with a 2.11 ERA.  He has a very high LOB% at 83.3%, and a very low BABIP of .228, and both will eventually start to revert to normal, causing a more inflated ERA.  That being said, Jeff Locke has said to be due for regression for at least a couple months now, and he has only improved on his statistics in that time, leading many to believe this season isn't a complete fluke.  Still, expect at least a slight regression for Locke the rest of the way, with an ERA somewhere in the threes.

Gerrit Cole:  Cole's advanced numbers would actually suggest improvement as the year goes on, which isn't much of a surprise.  He hasn't overwhelmed hitters to this point, with a 5.40 K/9 rate, a number that has to improve with his ability.  His FIP and xFIP are both lower than his ERA of 3.89, with his FIP being much lower at 3.22.  As long as Cole stays in the rotation, he should see improvements in his ERA and strikeout totals.

Charlie Morton:  I'm not as high as Charlie Morton as some others are, but he is a good number five starter.  He has only pitched in six games, so his stats are a small sample size, but his ERA of 3.19 is due to regress, as his FIP is 4.44 and his xFIP is 4.18.  There are no concerns with his LOB% or ground ball rate, but his BABIP is 40 points lower than his career number.  Expect Morton's ERA to be around 4.00-4.25 for the remainder of the year, with a little give or take each way.

Wandy Rodriguez:  Wandy was pitching well before his injury, with a 3.59 ERA in 62.2 innings.  He was pretty consistent, but the numbers would suggest that he was due for moderate regression, with a 4.43 FIP and 4.04 xFIP.  His BABIP was far below his career number of .296, at .255 when he went to the DL.  His LOB% was also relatively high at 80.0% when compared to his career number of  71.6%.  But, the injury may have stalled any regression, so when he returns we can expect Wandy to pitch like he normally does, with an ERA in the 3.50-4.00 range.

Jeanmar Gomez:  Basically all of Gomez's stats would suggest that he is going to regress for the remainder of the year.  We all know he isn't going to be able to sustain his current 2.65 ERA, it's just a question of how far it will regress.  His FIP is 4.16 and his xFIP is 4.05, so we can assume his ERA will be over 4.00 until the season ends.  He has been very lucky this year, stranding over ten percent more baserunners than his career number, along with a BABIP of .228 compared to a career number of .290.  Gomez's season has been a pleasant surprise to this point, but in all likelihood his success won't continue.

Only Locke, Morton and Gomez are due for a significant amount of regression, and it seems like Locke may not regress as much as expected.  The rotation won't perform quite as well as they have to this point as the season goes on, but the numbers don't suggest they will perform too much worse.  They may have a problem at the back end of their rotation if Morton falters, as there isn't a truly good replacement expected until Rodriguez returns in September.


What Will It Take To Get Garza or Norris- Is It Worth It?
When looking at what it would take to acquire a player, you have to look at a few factors.  One factor is obviously how they are doing this year and how they have performed in the past.  One good year may really inflate a player's price, but a down year may not mean as much when he has performed well in the past.  Another important factor is how many years are remaining on the player's contract or how many years is he under team control.  A third factor is how much money would the team be taking on when they acquire the player.  Using these factors, lets look at what it may take to get Garza or Norris, and if it would be worth it.

Matt Garza:  Garza is in his final year of arbitration, making $10.2 million this year, and set for free agency once the season ends.  The Pirates would have to pay the just over $4 million remaining on his contract.  He has an ERA of 3.17 as of July 21st, and an xFIP of 3.86.  He is due for moderate regression, as ZiPS projects him to have an ERA of 3.76 for the remainder of the season.  With all those factors, you would think it would cost about what it took to get Wandy Rodriguez last year, but the Cubs are said to have an "exceptionally high" asking price for Garza, one that included top prospect Mike Olt in a potential deal with the Rangers.  As I said in my post Pirates Top 30 Prospects Before the Trade Deadline, I wouldn't give up any of the top ten prospects in the system for any of the names that are being floated out on the trade market, and that is what it would take to get Garza at this point, plus a couple more players.  With Garza hitting free agency at the end of the year, it would not be worth it giving up a top ten prospect for a two month rental.

Bud Norris:  Norris is in his first year of arbitration eligibility in 2013, so he would be under team control until for the next two years, hitting free agency after the 2015 season.  He is only making $3 million this year, and doesn't project to make a substantial amount in his next two arbitration years, so money won't be an issue here.  Norris has a 3.91 ERA this year, and isn't projected to improve or regress much.  The Pirates would be trading for a guy that will most likely put up an ERA of around 4.00 for this year and the next two years, which can come at a surprisingly steep price.  According to Tim Williams's trade value calculator over at Piratesprospects.com, it could take a top 51-100 pitching prospect and a grade C pitching prospect, or a top 51-100 hitting prospect.  Basically that is Luis Heredia and and a player like Clay Holmes in a package, or a hitter like Josh Bell or even Alen Hanson.  Bud Norris isn't a bad pitcher, but I wouldn't give up any of those packages for two and a half years of a league average pitcher.


After looking at all the factors, we can make a better decision if the Pirates should pursue a starting pitcher.  The starting pitching depth may look great from the outside, but if you look deeper the Pirates could use another starter, especially with Charlie Morton due to regress, and the injury history of the current rotation.  But, the current trade market is weak, and if Matt Garza and Bud Norris are the only real targets that the Pirates have, then they are probably better served to stand pat with their rotation and hope that no serious injuries occur.  Some of the pitchers will start to fall back to earth with their numbers, but the rotation should continue putting up some of the best numbers in the NL.  The group of six starters, excluding Gomez, averages almost exactly six innings per start, a number that you would like to see improve a little, but also a number that isn't too bad.  It will be interesting to see how the Pirates handle Gerrit Cole's innings situation, as he is on pace to pitch around 180 innings this year after only pitching 132 innings in his pro debut last year.

The Pirates do have questions facing the rotation for the remainder of the year, but currently it doesn't look like the trade market has the answers.  Some suggest that the Pirates go after the Phillies' Cliff Lee, but that would be too steep of a price for the Pirates, both economically speaking and from a prospect standpoint.  Also, the Phillies are only 6.5 games back in their division, so they may feel they can still compete.  I don't think it would be a bad idea to ask the White Sox about Chris Sale, but that would be an extremely unlikely scenario.  With nothing of much value out on the starting pitching trade market, the Pirates should stay where they are with a rotation of Burnett, Liriano, Locke, Cole, and Morton until September when Rodriguez replaces Morton, and wait until next year for players like Jameson Taillon and Nick Kingham to contribute to the major league rotation.

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45 or in the comment section below.

Pirates Top 30 Prospects Before The Trade Deadline

Well, it's been awhile since I've posted anything, and I seem to be starting a lot of my most recent articles like that.  I'm going to try and change that, and with the trade deadline quickly approaching, I should have plenty to write about.
The Pirates have been rumored to be interested in players like Alex Rios, Hunter Pence, and Bud Norris.  Trading for these players would possibly require a package of prospects, so I thought I'd update my top 30 prospects in the organization to kick off my trade deadline coverage, and to give everyone an idea of the talent that may be given up in trades.  Personally, I don't think the Pirates should give up any of the players ranked in the top 10 here, as there isn't a player on the trade block that would provide enough short or long term value to warrant such a trade (that is unless the team somehow pulled off a deal for Giancarlo Stanton, which I would approve but isn't going to happen).
While ranking these players, I realized just how good the Pirates system has become, even without Gerrit Cole.  The system's top 10 prospects may very well be the best in all of baseball, and the team has guys in the 11-20 range that would easily be top 10 prospects if they were in a different organization.  If I were the general manager of the Pirates, I wouldn't try for a big deadline deal, as the names out there right now aren't really worth the price, and wouldn't be major upgrades over what the team already has.  I'm not sure if there's any player out their that would fit the mold, but if the team could fine another deal similar to the Travis Snider trade from last year, that would be preferable.  I would simply continue to build the major league club through the farm system, which has been very effective to this point.

Top 30 Prospects In the Pirates System
1.) Jameson Taillon--RHP--21--AA
2.) Gregory Polanco--OF--21--AA
3.) Tyler Glasnow--RHP--19--A
4.) Luis Heredia--RHP--18--A
5.) Alen Hanson--SS--20--A+
6.) Austin Meadows--OF--18--Rookie
7.) Nick Kingham--RHP--21--AA
8.) Reese McGuire--C--18--Rookie
9.) Josh Bell--OF--20--A
10.) Barrett Barnes--OF--21--A
11.) Tony Sanchez--C--25--AAA
12.) Stolmy Pimentel--RHP--23--AAA
13.) Victor Black--RHP--25--AAA
14.) Dilson Herrera--2B--19--A
15.) Stetson Allie--1B--22--A+
16.) Kyle McPherson--RHP--25--AAA DL
17.) Harold Ramirez--OF--18--A-
18.) Andrew Lambo--OF--24--AAA
19.) Wyatt Mathisen--C--19--A DL
20.) Jin-De Jhang--C--20--A-
21.) Clay Holmes--RHP--20--A
22.) Elvis Escobar--OF--18--A-
23.) Blake Taylor--LHP--18--Rookie
24.) Ivan De Jesus Jr--2B/SS--26--AAA
25.) Alex Dickerson--1B--23--AA
26.) Brandon Cumpton--RHP--24--AAA
27.) Jacoby Jones--CF/SS--21--A-
28.) Joely Rodriguez--LHP--21--A+
29.) Willy Garcia--OF--20--A+
30.) Max Moroff--SS--20--A

If you would like me to expand on any prospect, you can ask in the comment section below.  If you have any other questions, comments, or something you would like me to write about, you can also post in the comment section or tweet me @mikemaw45.