Dan Gamache was selected by the Pirates in the 2011 amateur draft out of Auburn, where he played third base. Gamache hit very well in his first two years of college, with an OPS of 1.146 in his first year and 1.024 in his second year. His production declined in his third year of college, but he still hit for a decent OPS of .878, leading to his selection in the sixth round of the draft.
In college, Gamache didn't hit for a lot of power, which assisted in the Pirates' decision to move him over to second base as a pro, where his offense was more suitable for the position. He struggled in the field in his 26 games for the Pirates in the rookie level Gulf Coast League and State College (Short Season) last year, where he committed nine errors. Six of these errors came at third, with the other three coming at second. However, Gamache is said to be a strong defender with good range and a good arm, so these struggles shouldn't continue down the road. So far with Low-A West Virginia in 2012, he has played six games at second and six games as the DH, and has yet to play third.
As for his hitting, Gamache has yet to impress with his bat. In his limited time in the minors, he has hit for .262 average and .695 OPS in a total of 126 at bats, all in the lower levels of the minors. For a hitter that had success for three years in college, you would expect better production. To this point in 2012, he has improved slightly with a .268 average and .744 OPS. It is still very early in his career, so there is definitely a chance that his offensive numbers will rise in the future.
Gamache is still young at 21 years old, and has good defensive ability and is talented enough to hit, at least at the lower levels. He will probably stay at second base for the most part down the road, but with fellow prospect Jodaneli Carvajal playing primarily second base, Gamache will probably see at lot of time as the DH. At the plate, he could hit for a decent average, but unless he adds power to his game, he will probably end up as an organizational player in the upper levels of the minors.
If you want to see a certain prospect profiled, tweet his name to me @mikemaw45
Saturday, April 21, 2012
Friday, April 20, 2012
Pirates Prospect Posts
I will start to have new posts about prospects as a new feature on Bloggin Buccos, hopefully daily. I have already posted my first one about Alen Hanson because of his hot start, but new posts will generally be about a random prospect, or any prospect that readers would like to see profiled.
If there is a player that you want to see profiled, tweet the prospect's name to me @mikemaw45
If there is a player that you want to see profiled, tweet the prospect's name to me @mikemaw45
Monday, April 16, 2012
Pirates Prospect: Alen Hanson (SS)
In my post about potential “breakout” prospects for the Pittsburgh Pirates, one of the players that I profiled was Alen Hanson. Hanson is a 19 year old shortstop currently playing for Low-A West Virginia in the South Atlantic League. For a quick look at Hanson, refer to the post I mentioned above at http://thefuturists.mlblogs.com/2012/04/15/pittsburgh-pirates-breakout-prospect-candidates-2/.
Hanson is praised as being a “true shortstop”, having good range and defensive ability. He is also a plus runner who has the ability to hit for average in the future. And so far this year, Hanson has shown power that was not present in his first two years in the Pirates’ organization, with four home runs in his first 52 at bats this year, compared to four home runs 452 at bats in the minors. Although it is very unlikely that he continues to hit home runs at this pace, he could eventually end up hitting 10-20 home runs a year in the majors. That is still impressive for a shortstop listed at 5’11” and 152 pounds. It will be interesting to see if Hanson can continue to hit for a good average along with a good OPS in 2012 because he had a similar hot start last year in the rookie level Gulf Coast League, only to see his numbers drop drastically as the season progressed. ESPN writer Keith Law said that Hanson has “a chance to really hit”, but a position prospect’s ability to hit can not truly be determined until they reach the upper levels of the minors, where they will face more advanced pitchers who work with more breaking pitches and have more experience. Hanson won’t reach the AA level until 2014 if everything goes right, hoping he can have success in his first full season in Low-A ball in 2012 and then spend 2013 in High-A ball. From there we will be able to better see what kind of player Hanson is.
For now, Alen Hanson looks like a player who can handle the shortstop position very well, has great speed, can hit for a good average, and can hit for some surprising power for his size. He has the highest upside of any shortstop prospect in the Pirates minor league system, and if he continues his success in the lower levels, he has the chance to be a top 100 prospect in the minors in the next few years.
Sunday, April 15, 2012
Breakout Prospect Candidates
Over the past few seasons the Pittsburgh Pirates have accumulated a lot of young, raw talent in the lower levels of their minor league system, via the draft and international signings. The Pirates have some high profile prospects in their organization, most notably Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, and Starling Marte, but are said to lack depth after these type of players. But with all the young talent, that problem can definitely be resolved.
There are multiple players in the Pirates system that could be “breakout” prospects this year. A few players from recent drafts that could receive this label are: Stetson Allie (2nd round, 2010), Zack Von Rosenberg (6th, 2009), and Mel Rojas Jr. (3rd, 2010). International signings that could be breakout prospects are: Jose Osuna, Willy Garcia, Alen Hanson, Jordaneli Carvajal, and Gregory Polanco. In this post, I will evaluate five of these players that I believe are the most likely to have “breakout” years.Stetson Allie
This was my write-up for Allie back in September when I released my top 30 prospects for Bloggin Buccos.
6.) Stetson Allie--RHP--20: With Allie, there is a lot of risk involved, but the reward can be very high. He hadn’t really pitched a good amount before his senior year in high school, but he had great natural pitches and velocity (hitting triple digits often) and pitched well enough to earn the #8 prospect in the 2010 pre-draft rankings by Baseball America. He fell to the Pirates in the second round because of the money he wanted, but the Pirates were able to sign him for a $2.25 million bonus. Some expected him to begin the season with West Virginia, but that wouldn’t have been a good decision due to his lack of experience on the mound. He made his debut with short-season State College when their season started, and originally pitched out of the rotation. His control was a major question mark coming into the season, and he showed why that was. Allie struggled with control throughout the season, and was moved to the bullpen to work on it. The control never really came, and he ended up walking 29 batters in 26 innings, but he also struck out 28. A positive sign from the season was that hitters only batted .208 against him, so if he can better control his pitches, he could be something special. Some see his long term role as a power closer, but for now the Pirates will most likely continue his development as a starter. I believe he will start in extended Spring Training next year, but he could be in West Virginia sometime in late April or May if he makes strides with his control. If everything goes right, Allie can be a top of the rotation starter with a fastball nearing 100 MPH, along with a great breaking slider that can reach the low 90’s.
As it turned out, Allie started the season for low-A West Virginia after showing somewhat improved control in spring training. In his first start, however, his control was non-existent as he walked four batters in 0.1 innings, allowing two earned runs. He missed his next start with tightness in his elbow. Reports from minor league spring training seemed positive, stating that his control looked much better, but his first start seemed extremely far from that. But, if he can start throwing more strikes, he will be a very interesting prospect. He has two plus pitches when he can throw in the strike zone, but still has to develop a changeup to have success as a starter.
Allie is very hard to hit, but will need better control if he is to stay a starting pitcher. If his control really is getting better and his first start was just a fluke, he could be an excellent starting pitcher, possibly breaking back into Baseball America’s top 100 prospects again, where he was ranked #79 heading into 2011.
Zack Von Rosenberg
My write-up for Von Rosenberg in September for Bloggin Buccos top 30 Pirates prospects:
17.) Zack Von Rosenberg--RHP--20: ZVR had a terrible year on paper. He had a 5.73 ERA while spending the entire season at low-A West Virginia pitching out of the rotation. However, ZVR put up some impressive secondary numbers, with 8.2 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 ratios, to go along with a decent 1.32 WHIP. A lot of his struggles this year can be explained by his lack of command, leaving the ball up in the zone too often. The Pirates teach their minor league pitchers to better command their fastball in the lower levels, so we can expect this to improve moving forward. I ranked ZVR at #17, but I feel like he could make a case for the top 10 Pirates prospects because of his potential. Baseball America ranked him as the #41 prospect coming out of the 2009 draft, and he has a good amount of upside. His secondary pitches worked very well for him when he used them more, and he finished the season strongly, with a 2.66 ERA in his final 9 starts. He also threw six perfect innings in his last start of the year. If he learns better command of his fastball, ZVR is a definite candidate for a breakout season at Bradenton next year, where he is expected to begin the season.
Von Rosenberg is on the low-A West Virginia roster to begin the season, making it his second year at that level. Leaving the ball up in the zone will cause problems for any pitcher, especially if they throw 88-91 MPH with their fastball, as Von Rosenberg does. However, ZVR has a projectable build, meaning he has a chance to add velocity moving forward. He possesses a good curveball that helped him out later in the 2011 season. His secondary numbers from 2011 are definitely encouraging, and keeping the ball lower in the zone will allow him to lower his 10.2 H/9 from 2011. In 2009 and 2010, ZVR was viewed as a prospect that could eventually become a top of the rotation starter, and at 21 years old, there is still time for him to develop into that role.
Mel Rojas Jr.
Rojas came in at number 27 in my rankings in September.
27.) Mel Rojas Jr.--CF--21: When it comes to players like Rojas, his prospect status is based purely on his raw talent, not on his stats. He has not put up strong numbers to this point, with a .246/.312./.335 line for Low-A West Virginia in 2011. That’s a .646 OPS, not very impressive for a player with his talent at such a low level. However, when he was drafted in 2010 out of Junior College, some scouts said that he has the ability to develop into a five tool player. He has good speed and has showed he can play center field with a good arm, but his hitting has not lived up to expectations. He started to turn things around at the end of this season, so that should earn him a promotion to Bradenton next year. He is too raw to project what he could be in the majors, but Rojas has enough potential and talent to take him to that level.
Rojas did end up making the next step to High-A Bradenton in 2012 as the starting right fielder, with Evan Chambers starting in center field. He’s gotten off to a good start in his first nine games, with a .333 average and .896 OPS. He has shown to be a good fielder with speed, so the main concern with him will be his ability to hit, and his ability to hit for power. Rojas has raw power, which he displays in batting practice, but has yet to show that in games, with only five home runs 708 minor league at bats in the lower levels. It’s been a small sample size so far, but if he can continue to hit well this season, Rojas definitely has the ability to be a five-tool talent that could join a list of very talented young outfielders in the Pirates’ organization.
Alen Hanson
Hanson did not make my top 30 prospects list, but was a candidate to take one of the final spots. He played 2011 in the Gulf Coast League after a successful 2010 season in the Dominican Summer League where he hit .324 with an .830 OPS. Hanson has good speed and good defense, but after a hot start last year, he trailed off and ended up hitting .260 with a .767 OPS. He had 22 extra base hits in 208 at bats, which helped raise his OPS to a decent level. In 2012, Hanson is off to an amazing start for Low-A West Virginia, batting .404 in his first 52 at batswith four home runs (he had four homers in his first 452 at bats in the minors), along with nine RBI, five doubles and a triple. Hanson has all the tools to be an above average player in the majors, and if he continues to swing a hot bat, he could be a top 100 prospect in the upcoming years.
Gregory Polanco
Along with Hanson, Polanco was not on my top 30 prospects list, but was not in contention for any of the final spots. He struggled in the past, with a combined .218 average in 357 at bats in the rookie level Gulf Coast League. But in 2012 he seems to have figured some of his hitting troubles out, as he is off to a great start, batting .333 in 39 at bats with four home runs and 12 RBI. Polanco possesses good speed and has the ability to play center field, but will probably end up at a corner outfield spot in the future. It was a surprise that Polanco started the year in Low-A, but so far he has adjusted very well. He has the natural ability to continue hitting for a good average and power, to go along with a good amount of stolen bases.
The Pirates have a lot of young players in the lower levels of their organization that have a lot of raw talent, but have yet to have success. Recently, the team has seen prospects like Robbie Grossman and Kyle McPherson break out, and many more have the chance to in the near future. Also, guys in the upper levels that were once top prospects that could develop into strong major league options after struggling in the recent years are Tim Alderson (Baseball America’s #45 prospect in 2009), Andrew Lambo (#49 in 2009), Tony Sanchez (#46 in 2011), Gorkys Hernandez (#62 in 2009), and Bryon Morris. Depth could be an issue for the Pirates for now, but the talent is there to have one of the top minor league systems.
Saturday, April 7, 2012
When Should Starling Marte Be Called Up?
In our rankings last September, Starling Marte was the #3 prospect in the Pirates’ organization. He was coming off a year where he hit for a .332 average and an .870 OPS, along with 12 home runs and 24 stolen bases. He followed his stellar 2011 campaign with a great offensive showing early in spring training this year with the major league club, hitting .520 with a 1.440 OPS and three home runs in 25 at bats. This had many fans calling for the team to keep Marte on the major league roster to start the season, but management made the right decision by sending him to AAA Indianapolis to work on plate patience and to get time at the corner outfield positions, where he will most likely play as long as Andrew McCutchen is in center for the Pirates. But having Marte one step away from the majors in AAA leads to the question, when will he get the call?
Marte’s arrival in the majors really depends on a couple factors. Obviously, one of them is how he is performing in AAA. If he continues to hit like he has, then it will be very difficult for the Pirates to keep him down. The other factor in his call up will be how Alex Presley and Jose Tabata perform. If one of these two struggle, then that will lead to a higher possibility of Marte getting the call. Likewise, if both of these players exceed expectations, then that will lower the chances of Marte having a spot on the major league roster. If Marte doesn’t respond well to the more advanced AAA pitching, it will not matter how Presley and Tabata hit, and will show that Marte needs more time in the minors.
As mentioned in the first paragraph, Marte needs to work on his plate patience and get more experience in left and/or right field before he can be called up to the majors. In his minor league career leading up to this season, he has struck out in 21.6% of his at-bats. That’s not too bad, and he even lowered his strikeout rate to 18.7% in 2011. However, he has a career walk rate of 4.7%, and 3.8% in 2011. That is bad. Obviously, this hasn’t really affected his performance too much in the minors, but if he continues this, major league pitchers will exploit this weakness. Marte is an aggressive hitter, many times swinging at pitches that are not in the strike zone. But, if he would allow these pitches to go buy as balls, he would get more walks and see better pitches to hit later in the count. Not only would this raise his on base percentage, it could also raise his average because of the more hittable pitches.
Marte is a very good defensive centerfielder, probably better than McCutchen. However, he has very little experience at the corner outfield positions in the higher levels, and in spring training, he looked a little lost at those spots. For the Pirates, Marte will most likely play left field, where he has only played seven times in the minors. Being a good fielder, this shouldn’t take long for Marte to adjust to, but it is better to get him used to the position in the minors, rather than with the major league club. PNC Park has a very large left field, so it will be good having a player with Marte’s speed and defense to man that position.
So, when should Marte get called up? The earliest time I could see the Pirates calling up Marte is early to mid June. This will give the team enough time to evaluate his performance at AAA, and to see how Presley and Tabata handle themselves at the majors. If Marte is hitting .300-.315 or better with an OPS of over .820 and his strikeout and walk numbers improve, then he should get serious consideration by the beginning of July. Even if Presley and Tabata are hitting well, you can’t ignore Marte’s talent and potential impact on the team, and it really wouldn’t benefit him to stay in AAA. In the majors, Marte could be an .300+ hitter with 15-20 homers a year, with great speed and great defense. The Pirates could have a very good duo with Marte and McCutchen, and hopefully we will get a taste of what that is like at some point this summer.
Marte’s arrival in the majors really depends on a couple factors. Obviously, one of them is how he is performing in AAA. If he continues to hit like he has, then it will be very difficult for the Pirates to keep him down. The other factor in his call up will be how Alex Presley and Jose Tabata perform. If one of these two struggle, then that will lead to a higher possibility of Marte getting the call. Likewise, if both of these players exceed expectations, then that will lower the chances of Marte having a spot on the major league roster. If Marte doesn’t respond well to the more advanced AAA pitching, it will not matter how Presley and Tabata hit, and will show that Marte needs more time in the minors.
As mentioned in the first paragraph, Marte needs to work on his plate patience and get more experience in left and/or right field before he can be called up to the majors. In his minor league career leading up to this season, he has struck out in 21.6% of his at-bats. That’s not too bad, and he even lowered his strikeout rate to 18.7% in 2011. However, he has a career walk rate of 4.7%, and 3.8% in 2011. That is bad. Obviously, this hasn’t really affected his performance too much in the minors, but if he continues this, major league pitchers will exploit this weakness. Marte is an aggressive hitter, many times swinging at pitches that are not in the strike zone. But, if he would allow these pitches to go buy as balls, he would get more walks and see better pitches to hit later in the count. Not only would this raise his on base percentage, it could also raise his average because of the more hittable pitches.
Marte is a very good defensive centerfielder, probably better than McCutchen. However, he has very little experience at the corner outfield positions in the higher levels, and in spring training, he looked a little lost at those spots. For the Pirates, Marte will most likely play left field, where he has only played seven times in the minors. Being a good fielder, this shouldn’t take long for Marte to adjust to, but it is better to get him used to the position in the minors, rather than with the major league club. PNC Park has a very large left field, so it will be good having a player with Marte’s speed and defense to man that position.
So, when should Marte get called up? The earliest time I could see the Pirates calling up Marte is early to mid June. This will give the team enough time to evaluate his performance at AAA, and to see how Presley and Tabata handle themselves at the majors. If Marte is hitting .300-.315 or better with an OPS of over .820 and his strikeout and walk numbers improve, then he should get serious consideration by the beginning of July. Even if Presley and Tabata are hitting well, you can’t ignore Marte’s talent and potential impact on the team, and it really wouldn’t benefit him to stay in AAA. In the majors, Marte could be an .300+ hitter with 15-20 homers a year, with great speed and great defense. The Pirates could have a very good duo with Marte and McCutchen, and hopefully we will get a taste of what that is like at some point this summer.
Thursday, March 1, 2012
Pirates Prospects #6-4
Up next in our prospects countdown are three guys who are young and unpolished, but have as much upside as any other prospects in baseball.
6.) Stetson Allie--RHP--20: With Allie, there is a lot of risk involved, but the reward can be very high. He hadn’t really pitched a good amount before his senior year in high school, but he had great natural pitches and velocity (hitting triple digits often) and pitched well enough to earn the #8 prospect in the 2010 pre-draft rankings by Baseball America. He fell to the Pirates in the second round because of the money he wanted, but the Pirates were able to sign him for a $2.25 million bonus. Some expected him to begin the season with West Virginia, but that wouldn’t have been a good decision due to his lack of experience on the mound. He made his debut with State College when their season started, and pitched out of the rotation. His control was a major question mark coming into the season, and he showed why that was. Allie struggled with control throughout the season, and was moved to the bullpen to work on it. The control never really came, and he ended up walking 29 batters in 26 innings, but he also struck out 28. A positive sign from the season was that hitters only batted .208 against him, so if he can better control his pitches, he will be something special. Some see his long term role as a power closer, but for now the Pirates will most likely continue his development as a starter. I believe he will start in extended Spring Training next year, but he could be in West Virginia sometime in late April or May if he makes strides with his control. If everything goes right, Allie can be a top of the rotation starter with a fastball nearing 100 MPH, along with a great breaking slider that can reach the low 90’s.
OFP: 65 (Borderline Top of Rotation Starter or Back of Bullpen Pitcher)
5.) Josh Bell--LF--19: The Pirates selected the switch hitting Josh Bell in the 2nd round of the 2011 draft, although he was Baseball America’s #15 prospect in the draft. He fell to the Pirates because he was considered an impossible sign after sending a letter to all 30 teams telling them not to draft him. Not fazed by this, the Pirates took the risk, and it payed off in the end. They were able to sign Bell for $5 million, and he immediately became one of the top prospects in the system. He has possibly the best power in the system already, after hitting 14 home runs in only 81 AB’s in high school. That’s a home run every 5.8 AB’s. I know its high school, but that’s still very impressive. He hit for a .552 average and a 1.760 OPS, and also drew 48 walks while striking out only five times. This is the kind of hitter every team wants in their system. The Pirates are not very deep when it comes to hitting prospects, and few players have shown power potential. Having Bell gives the organization a player that has potential plus power from both sides of the plate, and can also hit for a good average. Bell could move quickly through the system because of his ability, and will most likely start 2012 in West Virginia. Bell has the talent to be a .280+ hitter with 35 home runs a season, and could be a fix in the middle of the Pirates’ order for years to come.
5.) Josh Bell--LF--19: The Pirates selected the switch hitting Josh Bell in the 2nd round of the 2011 draft, although he was Baseball America’s #15 prospect in the draft. He fell to the Pirates because he was considered an impossible sign after sending a letter to all 30 teams telling them not to draft him. Not fazed by this, the Pirates took the risk, and it payed off in the end. They were able to sign Bell for $5 million, and he immediately became one of the top prospects in the system. He has possibly the best power in the system already, after hitting 14 home runs in only 81 AB’s in high school. That’s a home run every 5.8 AB’s. I know its high school, but that’s still very impressive. He hit for a .552 average and a 1.760 OPS, and also drew 48 walks while striking out only five times. This is the kind of hitter every team wants in their system. The Pirates are not very deep when it comes to hitting prospects, and few players have shown power potential. Having Bell gives the organization a player that has potential plus power from both sides of the plate, and can also hit for a good average. Bell could move quickly through the system because of his ability, and will most likely start 2012 in West Virginia. Bell has the talent to be a .280+ hitter with 35 home runs a season, and could be a fix in the middle of the Pirates’ order for years to come.
OFP: 68 (Major-League Star)
4.) Luis Heredia--RHP--17: The player on this list that has the highest upside may very well be Luis Heredia. He was signed out of Mexico as a 16 year-old, receiving a $2.6 million bonus, although ¾ of that went to Veracruz, the team he was playing for at the time. Heredia is very big, especially for his age, standing at 6’6”, and he has the ability to pitch in the mid-90’s, reportedly hitting 96 at times earlier this season, which is very impressive for a 16 year-old. He had a few fastballs that he threw, along with a slider, curve, and change. His fastballs, curve, and change all have the potential to be plus pitches in the majors, and anyone with four plus pitches is going to be dominant. Heredia spent the 2011 season pitching in the Gulf Coast League, where his innings were limited to about 2-3 innings for most starts. His control wasn’t great, but you have to remember that this kid played most of the season at 16. He struck out a decent number of batters, but the most encouraging part of his game was that he was hard to hit in many starts. He let up less hits than innings pitched this year, which isn’t unusual, but again, the kid was 16 during the season. Heredia will most likely pitch out of the State College rotation next season, and he is young enough that he can still add more velocity to his pitches. Heredia has the upside as a consistent Cy Young candidate with four plus pitches, including a fastball that could be sitting in the upper-90’s.
OFP: 70 (Top of Rotation Starter)4.) Luis Heredia--RHP--17: The player on this list that has the highest upside may very well be Luis Heredia. He was signed out of Mexico as a 16 year-old, receiving a $2.6 million bonus, although ¾ of that went to Veracruz, the team he was playing for at the time. Heredia is very big, especially for his age, standing at 6’6”, and he has the ability to pitch in the mid-90’s, reportedly hitting 96 at times earlier this season, which is very impressive for a 16 year-old. He had a few fastballs that he threw, along with a slider, curve, and change. His fastballs, curve, and change all have the potential to be plus pitches in the majors, and anyone with four plus pitches is going to be dominant. Heredia spent the 2011 season pitching in the Gulf Coast League, where his innings were limited to about 2-3 innings for most starts. His control wasn’t great, but you have to remember that this kid played most of the season at 16. He struck out a decent number of batters, but the most encouraging part of his game was that he was hard to hit in many starts. He let up less hits than innings pitched this year, which isn’t unusual, but again, the kid was 16 during the season. Heredia will most likely pitch out of the State College rotation next season, and he is young enough that he can still add more velocity to his pitches. Heredia has the upside as a consistent Cy Young candidate with four plus pitches, including a fastball that could be sitting in the upper-90’s.
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
2012 25-man Roster Outlook
Over 11 segments so far, Bloggin Buccos has looked at the possibilities that the Pirates have at each position heading into the 2012 season. Now that we have finished each position, it is time to see what the 25-man roster could be on opening day for 2012, position by position.
Catcher:
Starter- Rod Barajas: The Pirates signed Rod Barajas early in the offseason for one year at $4 Million, with a $3.5 Million team option for 2013. Barajas will provide some power in an order that desperately needs it, but will post a low average. He’s above average defensively, but will probably start only 110 games or so in 2012.
Backup- Michael McKenry: McKenry started 54 games at catcher for the Pirates in 2011, but has limited offensive ability. He has proved to be strong defensively, and will probably get a good number of starts in 2012 to give Barajas days to rest.
First Base:
Starter- Garrett Jones: The Pirates are committed to giving Jones a chance to prove himself as an everyday starter (quickly taking his name off the table when the Yankees asked for him in a possible A.J. Burnett deal), after the team was unable to land a free agent first baseman this offseason. Jones has some power, but has had a good deal of struggles against left handed pitching.
Backups- Casey McGehee, Jake Fox: McGehee was acquired for reliever Jose Veras and will compete for a possible platoon with Jones. He hit .285 with 23 HR’s and 104 RBI in 2010, but struggled at the plate in 2011.
Second Base:
Starter- Neil Walker: Walker saw a slight decrease in offensive production in his first full season in 2011 with a .742 OPS compared to an .811 OPS in 2010, but still drove in 83 RBI and greatly improved his defense. Expect good defense from him again and an OPS somewhere in the middle of his 2010 and 2011 numbers.
Backup- Yamaico Navarro: Navarro hasn’t played much second in his career, but has a good chance of being the backup infielder, beating out Josh Harrison, who may be given more time in AAA to develop his skills.
Third Base:
Starter- Pedro Alvarez: The Pirates are relying on a strong bounce back year from Pedro in 2012 if they want to be successful. After a decent rookie campaign and great finish in 2010, he struggled immensely at the plate in 2011 with a .191 average and only four home runs in 74 games. He still has the potential to be a game changer in the middle of the order, but will have to prove himself in 2012.
Backups- Casey McGehee, Yamaico Navarro, Jake Fox: The Pirates have three bench players, plus McKenry if absolutely needed, that can play third, so if Alvarez struggles they will not need to look far to find a backup, which would most likely be McGehee.
Shortstop:
Starter- Clint Barmes: Barmes was signed for two years and $10.5 Million, which is a high price, but was needed to sign him. He is very strong defensively and will be an offensive upgrade from Ronny Cedeno, with a similar average but 10-15 home run power to go with that.
Backup- Yamaico Navarro: Navarro has a good chance of winning a bench spot over Harrison because he has the ability to play shortstop, while that position is completely new to Harrison, who started getting work there this fall in the instructional league.
Left Field:
Starter- Alex Presley: Presley had a breakout year in 2010 between AA and AAA, and continued his success in 2011. He had a .298 average and .804 OPS for the Pirates last year in his first prolonged stay in the majors. 2012 will be a huge year in deciding if Alex Presley is a legit player, or if his performances have been a fluke.
Backup- Nate McClouth: McClouth returned to the Buccos in 2012 as a free agent and will look to turn around his career in the park where he was an All-Star.
Center Field:
Starter- Andrew McCutchen: McCutchen is the best player on the team, and will look for a big season to cement himself as one of the top centerfielders in the game. His power numbers were up in 2011, but his average dropped to .259 after batting .216 in the second half of the season. He will have to cut down on strikeouts to improve in 2012 and the future, but looks to be the budding superstar that the Pirates need.
Backup- Nate McClouth: McClouth won the Gold Glove award in 2008 as the centerfielder for the Pirates, but won’t get much of a chance to play center this year with McCutchen as the starter.
Right Field:
Starter- Jose Tabata: Tabata didn’t enjoy the same production he had in 2010, but injuries might have caused these struggles. He signed a team friendly contract extension towards the end of the regular season, showing that he wants to remain in Pittsburgh. Tabata is moving to right field after only playing this position 15 prior to 2012. It will be interesting to see Tabata’s offensive production if he can play the whole season.
Backups- Nate McClouth, Jake Fox: If Presley or Tabata don’t produce early in 2012, McClouth will be ready to take over as starter in left and right field.
Bench: Michael McKenry, Casey McGehee, Yamaico Navarro, Nate McClouth, Jake Fox
Starting Rotation:
1.) Jeff Karstens: Karstens is coming off a year where he was among the league leaders in ERA for a large portion of the season, finishing with a 3.38 ERA. He never had this success before in the majors, so it will be interesting to see if he can come anywhere near his 2011 numbers.
2.) Erik Bedard: The Pirates signed Bedard for one year at $4.5 Million, and this could very well be a steal if Bedard somehow stays healthy. Bedard is a very good pitcher when healthy, but he hasn’t started more than 24 games since 2007.
3.) Charlie Morton: Morton had a good bounce back year in 2011, finishing with a 3.83 ERA only a year after he posted a 7.57 ERA, and this may be credited to a new sinker grip that he learned. Morton had surgery early in the offseason to repair a torn labrum in his hip, and may not be ready for opening day. The Pirates will be cautious with his return.
4.) James McDonald: McDonald got off to a slow start in 2011 after missing time in spring training because of an oblique injury. After April, J-Mac had a strong season, but he must work deeper into games and become more effective if he wants to be successful moving forward.
5.) Kevin Correia: Correia was an All-Star for the Pirates in 2011, but only made it because of the number of wins he had. Correia started the season strong, but finished terribly and was unable to pitch well at PNC Park throughout the season. If the Pirates add another starter, it is likely that Correia will be the one taken out of the rotation.
??? 6.) A.J. Burnett: As I am writing this entry, the Pirates and Yankees are in discussions about a trade that would send Burnett to Pittsburgh. I would rather absorb more salary than trade any decent prospects if that is an option. I am fine with the Pirates taking $10-15 Million in salary, but the deal is too risky to give up legit prospects. That being said, I think it is very possible that Burnett could have a good comeback year in the NL Central if he is dealt to the Pirates.
Bullpen:
Relief: Jason Grilli, Evan Meek, Daniel McCutchen, Tony Watson, Chris Resop, Chris Leroux
Closer: Joel Hanrahan
The bullpen looks very similar to the 2011 bullpen, with no free agent pick ups in my projected bullpen. A big key to the bullpen will be Evan Meek and if he can rebound to 2010 form after an injury plagued 2011 season. Obviously, the strong point of this year’s bullpen is Joel Hanrahan, who emerged as one of the best closers in the game last year. Watson had a successful rookie season, and Leroux did a very good job in his time with the team late last year.
Outlook:
The key additions to the 2012 team were Barajas, Barmes, McGehee, Bedard, and possibly Burnett. The team has a few “wild card” players that could push them in either direction, including Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, Alex Presley, and Erik Bedard. If these players perform to what they are capable of, especially Alvarez, and the rest of the players continue to grow, the Pirates have the opportunity to have their first winning season in nearly 20 years. There are a few minor leaguers that are not on this list that could be called up to the major leagues, including but not limited to: OF Starling Marte, 1B Matt Hague, IF Chase D’arnaud, IF Josh Harrison, LHP Justin Wilson, and LHP Rudy Owens. Marte (#3 prospect on our list) is the only player listed here that has huge upside, but all these players could contribute to the club this year.
Without any major additions, the Pirates will have to rely on their young players’ continued growth along with big seasons from their wild card’s, mostly Pedro, and McCutchen to push the team towards .500. And with a weakened division, this may be the best chance the Pirates have at the division title for quite some time.
Catcher:
Starter- Rod Barajas: The Pirates signed Rod Barajas early in the offseason for one year at $4 Million, with a $3.5 Million team option for 2013. Barajas will provide some power in an order that desperately needs it, but will post a low average. He’s above average defensively, but will probably start only 110 games or so in 2012.
Backup- Michael McKenry: McKenry started 54 games at catcher for the Pirates in 2011, but has limited offensive ability. He has proved to be strong defensively, and will probably get a good number of starts in 2012 to give Barajas days to rest.
First Base:
Starter- Garrett Jones: The Pirates are committed to giving Jones a chance to prove himself as an everyday starter (quickly taking his name off the table when the Yankees asked for him in a possible A.J. Burnett deal), after the team was unable to land a free agent first baseman this offseason. Jones has some power, but has had a good deal of struggles against left handed pitching.
Backups- Casey McGehee, Jake Fox: McGehee was acquired for reliever Jose Veras and will compete for a possible platoon with Jones. He hit .285 with 23 HR’s and 104 RBI in 2010, but struggled at the plate in 2011.
Second Base:
Starter- Neil Walker: Walker saw a slight decrease in offensive production in his first full season in 2011 with a .742 OPS compared to an .811 OPS in 2010, but still drove in 83 RBI and greatly improved his defense. Expect good defense from him again and an OPS somewhere in the middle of his 2010 and 2011 numbers.
Backup- Yamaico Navarro: Navarro hasn’t played much second in his career, but has a good chance of being the backup infielder, beating out Josh Harrison, who may be given more time in AAA to develop his skills.
Third Base:
Starter- Pedro Alvarez: The Pirates are relying on a strong bounce back year from Pedro in 2012 if they want to be successful. After a decent rookie campaign and great finish in 2010, he struggled immensely at the plate in 2011 with a .191 average and only four home runs in 74 games. He still has the potential to be a game changer in the middle of the order, but will have to prove himself in 2012.
Backups- Casey McGehee, Yamaico Navarro, Jake Fox: The Pirates have three bench players, plus McKenry if absolutely needed, that can play third, so if Alvarez struggles they will not need to look far to find a backup, which would most likely be McGehee.
Shortstop:
Starter- Clint Barmes: Barmes was signed for two years and $10.5 Million, which is a high price, but was needed to sign him. He is very strong defensively and will be an offensive upgrade from Ronny Cedeno, with a similar average but 10-15 home run power to go with that.
Backup- Yamaico Navarro: Navarro has a good chance of winning a bench spot over Harrison because he has the ability to play shortstop, while that position is completely new to Harrison, who started getting work there this fall in the instructional league.
Left Field:
Starter- Alex Presley: Presley had a breakout year in 2010 between AA and AAA, and continued his success in 2011. He had a .298 average and .804 OPS for the Pirates last year in his first prolonged stay in the majors. 2012 will be a huge year in deciding if Alex Presley is a legit player, or if his performances have been a fluke.
Backup- Nate McClouth: McClouth returned to the Buccos in 2012 as a free agent and will look to turn around his career in the park where he was an All-Star.
Center Field:
Starter- Andrew McCutchen: McCutchen is the best player on the team, and will look for a big season to cement himself as one of the top centerfielders in the game. His power numbers were up in 2011, but his average dropped to .259 after batting .216 in the second half of the season. He will have to cut down on strikeouts to improve in 2012 and the future, but looks to be the budding superstar that the Pirates need.
Backup- Nate McClouth: McClouth won the Gold Glove award in 2008 as the centerfielder for the Pirates, but won’t get much of a chance to play center this year with McCutchen as the starter.
Right Field:
Starter- Jose Tabata: Tabata didn’t enjoy the same production he had in 2010, but injuries might have caused these struggles. He signed a team friendly contract extension towards the end of the regular season, showing that he wants to remain in Pittsburgh. Tabata is moving to right field after only playing this position 15 prior to 2012. It will be interesting to see Tabata’s offensive production if he can play the whole season.
Backups- Nate McClouth, Jake Fox: If Presley or Tabata don’t produce early in 2012, McClouth will be ready to take over as starter in left and right field.
Bench: Michael McKenry, Casey McGehee, Yamaico Navarro, Nate McClouth, Jake Fox
Starting Rotation:
1.) Jeff Karstens: Karstens is coming off a year where he was among the league leaders in ERA for a large portion of the season, finishing with a 3.38 ERA. He never had this success before in the majors, so it will be interesting to see if he can come anywhere near his 2011 numbers.
2.) Erik Bedard: The Pirates signed Bedard for one year at $4.5 Million, and this could very well be a steal if Bedard somehow stays healthy. Bedard is a very good pitcher when healthy, but he hasn’t started more than 24 games since 2007.
3.) Charlie Morton: Morton had a good bounce back year in 2011, finishing with a 3.83 ERA only a year after he posted a 7.57 ERA, and this may be credited to a new sinker grip that he learned. Morton had surgery early in the offseason to repair a torn labrum in his hip, and may not be ready for opening day. The Pirates will be cautious with his return.
4.) James McDonald: McDonald got off to a slow start in 2011 after missing time in spring training because of an oblique injury. After April, J-Mac had a strong season, but he must work deeper into games and become more effective if he wants to be successful moving forward.
5.) Kevin Correia: Correia was an All-Star for the Pirates in 2011, but only made it because of the number of wins he had. Correia started the season strong, but finished terribly and was unable to pitch well at PNC Park throughout the season. If the Pirates add another starter, it is likely that Correia will be the one taken out of the rotation.
??? 6.) A.J. Burnett: As I am writing this entry, the Pirates and Yankees are in discussions about a trade that would send Burnett to Pittsburgh. I would rather absorb more salary than trade any decent prospects if that is an option. I am fine with the Pirates taking $10-15 Million in salary, but the deal is too risky to give up legit prospects. That being said, I think it is very possible that Burnett could have a good comeback year in the NL Central if he is dealt to the Pirates.
Bullpen:
Relief: Jason Grilli, Evan Meek, Daniel McCutchen, Tony Watson, Chris Resop, Chris Leroux
Closer: Joel Hanrahan
The bullpen looks very similar to the 2011 bullpen, with no free agent pick ups in my projected bullpen. A big key to the bullpen will be Evan Meek and if he can rebound to 2010 form after an injury plagued 2011 season. Obviously, the strong point of this year’s bullpen is Joel Hanrahan, who emerged as one of the best closers in the game last year. Watson had a successful rookie season, and Leroux did a very good job in his time with the team late last year.
Outlook:
The key additions to the 2012 team were Barajas, Barmes, McGehee, Bedard, and possibly Burnett. The team has a few “wild card” players that could push them in either direction, including Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, Alex Presley, and Erik Bedard. If these players perform to what they are capable of, especially Alvarez, and the rest of the players continue to grow, the Pirates have the opportunity to have their first winning season in nearly 20 years. There are a few minor leaguers that are not on this list that could be called up to the major leagues, including but not limited to: OF Starling Marte, 1B Matt Hague, IF Chase D’arnaud, IF Josh Harrison, LHP Justin Wilson, and LHP Rudy Owens. Marte (#3 prospect on our list) is the only player listed here that has huge upside, but all these players could contribute to the club this year.
Without any major additions, the Pirates will have to rely on their young players’ continued growth along with big seasons from their wild card’s, mostly Pedro, and McCutchen to push the team towards .500. And with a weakened division, this may be the best chance the Pirates have at the division title for quite some time.
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