We are now about a month into the major league and minor league seasons, and I think it is about time that I post my current top 15 prospects in the system. I plan on making a new one every month during the season, just to see which top prospects are rising through the rankings due to performance and/or adjustments, and to see which players are dropping for any reason. It's only a month into the season, so upside is more important than performance for some of the younger prospects. My rankings for each player in my September rankings are in parenthesis.
1.) Jameson Taillon (2)--RHP--20
Taillon was the instant #1 prospect in the system when he was taken 2nd overall in the 2010 draft, but fell to #2 in many rankings after Gerrit Cole was drafted in 2011. After a stellar start to the season, Taillon has reclaimed the #1 spot in my eyes. He has a 1.76 ERA and 0.82 WHIP to this point, along with strong secondary numbers, including a 5.6 Hits/9, 9.7 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, and zero home runs allowed to this point. Taillon has gained this top spot because he has outperformed Cole at the same level at a younger age, and his changeup, the pitch that helped keep him behind Cole, seems to be coming along nicely. That pitch is added to an already plus fastball and plus curve.
2.) Gerrit Cole (1)--RHP--21
Cole has done nothing wrong to lose his top spot in the rankings. Taillon has just been performing very well. Cole has struggled at points in this season, but has a 3.54 ERA and 10.9 K/9, while not allowing many hits. Cole was the #1 overall pick in the 2011 draft, and may already have three plus pitches. He should be up in AA sometime in the next month. General Manager Neal Huntington said that both Cole and Taillon are on the "right track" for AA promotions.
3.) Starling Marte (3)--CF--23
Marte had a great spring training and this caused many fans to call for him to start the year in the majors. Management made the right call by putting him in AAA, as he was not ready for the majors. His average in AAA as of now is .268, but he has a respectable .780 OPS. His walk rate is up a little, which has been a problem in the past, but so is his strikeout rate, now at 23.2%. The speedy, rocket-armed outfielder has spent most of his time in center field this year, but unfortunately was hit in the hand by a pitch on May 6th, but Huntington said he is day-to-day.
4.) Josh Bell (5)--RF--19
Bell started the year in Low-A, but after only 62 at-bats, got injured while running the bases. He underwent surgery, and has begun his rehab. In those at bats, Bell had a .274 average with one homer and a .691 OPS. He still has the best power in the system, coming from both sides of the plate, so this knee injury definitely hurts the organization.
5.) Luis Heredia (4)--RHP--17
Heredia has yet to pitch this year in real games, and will begin his season with the short season State College Spikes when they begin their season in June. Heredia has the highest upside of anyone on this list, but to reach this potential he will have to learn to better control his pitches, and continue to show good velocity. At 17 years old, there is definitely time for him, and no need to rush him.
6.) Stetson Allie (6)--RHP--21
There is a huge drop off from #5 to #6 on this list. There is no player that is a clear choice for this spot, and with many players struggling in the system, I went with the remaining player that has the most upside. I'm not going to speak about Allie and his current 108 BB/9 right now, but he was said to have improved control (can't really get much worse) in spring training. He has two plus pitches with his fastball and slider, and if he ever learns to control them, he could be a very good pitcher. He was demoted to extended spring training to work on his control.
7.) Kyle McPherson (9)--RHP--24
McPherson has yet to pitch this year due to shoulder inflammation. He was able to move up two spots in the rankings because the guys ahead of him have not performed and are showing little signs of improvement. McPherson has great control and three solid pitches, and will start his season in AAA whenever he can return. He is currently on a throwing program, but shoulder injuries are never a good sign for a pitcher, with an example being Evan Meek.
8.) Rudy Owens (18)--LHP--24
Owens made the biggest jump in the rankings of anyone on this list. So far in his second year of AAA, he has posted a 2.12 ERA and 0.79 WHIP, to go along with much improved walk numbers (which was never really a problem). He has now set himself up to be the first person out of the AAA rotation to be called up if the Pirates ever need another starter due to injury or trade.
9.) Jeff Locke (12)--LHP--24
Along with Owens, Locke is having a very good year in AAA, and is giving himself the opportunity to be called up to the majors if needed. He has a 2.34 ERA so far, which gives him a 2.27 ERA in 63 career AAA innings. Locke has good control and good overall pitches, which gives him decent upside in the majors, probably more so than Owens.
10.) Tony Sanchez (7)--C--23
Sanchez has yet to figure out how to really hit AA pitching, which is the toughest jump for a hitter. However, coming out of college as a first rounder, Sanchez should be hitting by this point. Not only is his hitting not improving by much, his fielding is not really improving either. I've read that his throwing accuracy has gotten worse, but his caught stealing percentage is about the same as last year. Time seems to be running out for the 2009 fourth overall pick to establish himself as a top prospect.
11.) Nick Kingham (11)--RHP--20
Kingham has struggled so far in Low-A, but the potential is still there. He put up a great statistical year in 2011, and showed good velocity in spring, consistently throwing in the low to mid 90's. His curve and change can be solid pitches, but he has mainly focused on his fastball to this point. His control has escaped him this year, which is the probable cause to his early struggles. He is young enough that his upside is still the most important thing for him.
12.) Colton Cain (10)--LHP--21
Cain had a solid year in Low-A in 2011, but has had mixed results in High-A this year. His ERA is at 4.88 after six starts, mainly because a couple bad starts. Cain has decent control of his fastball, which sits around 90 MPH, and compliments that pitch with a curve and change, with both pitches having the potential to be above average.
13.) Matt Curry (15)--1B--23
Curry has the most upside of the first baseman in the upper levels, and is off to a nice start offensively in AA this year. He currently has a .317 average, to go along with an .843 OPS, two homers, and 17 RBI. If Curry continues to hit the way he is, we could see him up in AAA this year at some point, pushing Matt Hague to third base. Again, Curry has more upside than Hague, and is currently the best bet of being the Pirates' first baseman of the future.
14.) Alen Hanson (NA)--SS--19
Hanson has gotten a lot of coverage this season because of his hot start, flirting with an average above .400 for a long time. His average currently sits at .385 before his game on May 7th, and he has an OPS of 1.059 to go along with that. This may be a stretch to rank him this high on the list, but a 19 that is hitting like than and who has a chance to be a good defensive shortstop in the future as well definitely deserves some praise. He also has great speed, stealing 11 bases to this point.
15.) Robbie Grossman (8)--CF--22
I was a little hesitant to put Grossman at #8 last time because all his success came in his second year in High-A. So far in his jump to AA, which is the hardest jump for a hitter, he has struggled a good deal at the plate, with a .225 average and .660 OPS. Grossman suffered a broken hamate bone in the fall, while he was tearing up the Arizona Fall League. The AFL is a league where many of the top prospects in baseball play after the season is over, so it was nice to see Grossman perform the way he did there. He is still young, so he has time to adjust to pitchers in AA. In 2011, he was the first minor leaguer since Nick Swisher in 2004 to score 100 runs and walk 100 times.
If you have any questions or comments on these rankings, please send them to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or comment below.
Monday, May 7, 2012
Sunday, May 6, 2012
Of Course Starling Marte Gets Injured...
The bad luck just will not stop for the Buccos. Top prospect Starling Marte exited the Indianapolis Indians' game in the second inning after taking a pitch off the hand. There is no word on the extent of the injury to this point, but if his hand ends up being broken, he may not be able to participate in baseball activities for a few months.
Marte's injury is coming only a few weeks after the Pirates lost another top prospect to an injury, Josh Bell, who hurt his knee while running the bases. That's two of the Pirates' top five prospects, and top two hitting prospects, that have been injured within a month of each other. I hate to say this, but considering the Pirates' luck in recent years, I can't really say this is unexpected.
In a recent post (When Will The Pirates Catch A Break), I noted some of the things that have not gone right for the Pirates. This only adds to the list of unfortunate events and outcomes that the Bucs have had to deal with over the last few years. It is really unbelievable to me how unlucky the organization has been. Our top prospects keep getting injured or not panning out (ex. Marte, Bell, Tony Sanchez), free agents always seem to perform horribly for us, and all the risks that we take with players never seem to pay off. When will the Pirates catch a break???
In the post I mentioned above, I also listed some positives that the team has going for them, but there is nothing positive about our top hitting prospect being injured and possibly facing months without baseball. But it seems like it just had to happen for the Pirates. It seems like something always has to go wrong for the organization, and now its affecting the minor league players, as well as the major league team. If something were to happen to our top two prospects Jameson Taillon or Gerrit Cole, God forbid, then the Pirates would really be in a huge hole that would be very hard to climb out of.
The only thing that a Pirate fan can really hope for when all this bad luck happens is that it will lead to a lot of good luck heading our way. Maybe Jameson Taillon and Gerrit Cole will move up to AA quickly and dominate there too, and be on there ways to incredible major league careers. Maybe Pedro Alvarez will continue to tear the cover off the ball at the major league level. Maybe McCutchen will hit over .300, steal over 30 bases, and eclipse the 20 homer mark again. Maybe the pitching staff will continue its success throughout the whole season, and not collapse like they did last year. Maybe more of our prospects, like Alen Hanson, Robbie Grossman, Stetson Allie, Tony Sanchez, or Alex Dickerson will become some of the top prospects in the minors. At least some of this has to happen, because after everything that has occurred, the Pirates are due for some good luck.
You can send any questions or comments to me on twitter, @mikemaw45.
Marte's injury is coming only a few weeks after the Pirates lost another top prospect to an injury, Josh Bell, who hurt his knee while running the bases. That's two of the Pirates' top five prospects, and top two hitting prospects, that have been injured within a month of each other. I hate to say this, but considering the Pirates' luck in recent years, I can't really say this is unexpected.
In a recent post (When Will The Pirates Catch A Break), I noted some of the things that have not gone right for the Pirates. This only adds to the list of unfortunate events and outcomes that the Bucs have had to deal with over the last few years. It is really unbelievable to me how unlucky the organization has been. Our top prospects keep getting injured or not panning out (ex. Marte, Bell, Tony Sanchez), free agents always seem to perform horribly for us, and all the risks that we take with players never seem to pay off. When will the Pirates catch a break???
In the post I mentioned above, I also listed some positives that the team has going for them, but there is nothing positive about our top hitting prospect being injured and possibly facing months without baseball. But it seems like it just had to happen for the Pirates. It seems like something always has to go wrong for the organization, and now its affecting the minor league players, as well as the major league team. If something were to happen to our top two prospects Jameson Taillon or Gerrit Cole, God forbid, then the Pirates would really be in a huge hole that would be very hard to climb out of.
The only thing that a Pirate fan can really hope for when all this bad luck happens is that it will lead to a lot of good luck heading our way. Maybe Jameson Taillon and Gerrit Cole will move up to AA quickly and dominate there too, and be on there ways to incredible major league careers. Maybe Pedro Alvarez will continue to tear the cover off the ball at the major league level. Maybe McCutchen will hit over .300, steal over 30 bases, and eclipse the 20 homer mark again. Maybe the pitching staff will continue its success throughout the whole season, and not collapse like they did last year. Maybe more of our prospects, like Alen Hanson, Robbie Grossman, Stetson Allie, Tony Sanchez, or Alex Dickerson will become some of the top prospects in the minors. At least some of this has to happen, because after everything that has occurred, the Pirates are due for some good luck.
You can send any questions or comments to me on twitter, @mikemaw45.
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
Bring Back John Russell?
Clint Hurdle is a great guy and a great players' manager, there is no denying it. Hurdle oversaw a turnaround for most of last season that we have not in a long time. But in the end, like all things that were statistically improbable to continue, that run of luck ended. It is tough to say, but it was luck. Now on to my bone to pick with Clint Hurdle. The Pirates have been hitting poorly ever since he took over as manager. There are some obvious flaws in players' approaches and swings that I can see from watching on TV, such as Andrew McCutchen's ever widening stance that gives him no shot at driving an outside pitch. Beyond the bad hitting approach, Hurdle changes the lineup too much. Players need to get consistent at bats to break out of slumps, but Hurdle overreacts to slumps an constantly is rotating guys I and out of the lineup. A final problem that I have with him, besides his poor use of the bullpen, which I will tear apart some other time, is his way overuse of the bunt and steal. He bunts too frequently in situations that are really pointless. It is proven that giving away an out is far more costly than is worth moving a player up one base. Beyond that, the pirates get caught stealing way too often and giving away outs like this can really cost a team a game.
Bring back John Russell? I wouldn't go that far, but I would say that it is time for Neal Huntington and Frank Coonely to step up and tell Clint Hurdle how to run a baseball team correctly.
Tuesday, May 1, 2012
When Will The Pirates Catch A Break?
It’s no secret that the Pirates struggle to win ballgames. Generally, it’s been this way for the last two decades, ever since the departure of stars like Barry Bonds and Doug Drabek. But as we approach TWENTY straight years of losing, it continues to get less and less bearable. The patience of many Pirate fans has gone away long ago, and it’s getting increasingly hard for younger fans to root for a team that they have never seen as a winner. To make matters worse for the Bucs, the Pirates play in a city where fans are accustomed to winning teams, with the Steelers and Penguins always in playoff contention, and the Pitt basketball team usually a top 25 team. This puts the city’s expectations for sports teams through the roof, and the Pirates are seemingly always in the basement. So, when will the Buccos climb out of the cellar and contend again? When will the Pirates finally catch a break?
Over the past two decades, a lot has gone wrong for the Pirates. Here are just a few of the things that haven’t worked out for the Pirates in the past few years:
--Very few free agents have panned out as planned. Signees such as Aki Iwamura, Bobby Crosby, Lyle Overbay, and Matt Diaz all did absolutely horrible for the team, and all lasted no more than one year on the roster. Even in 2012, Rod Barajas and Clint Barmes are really struggling at the plate and have not played stellar defense. Generally, free agent signings have not worked in the Pirates’ favor recently.
--Major trades have not panned out either. All the Pirates have left in the system from the Jason Bay trade is reliever Bryan Morris. Nothing has come from the Jack Wilson-Ian Snell trade, and the Freddy Sanchez trade has yet to pay any dividends with Tim Alderson still coming out of the bullpen for the AA team.
--The risks that the Pirates have made on former top prospects, such as Andy LaRoache, Sean Gallagher, Hayden Penn, Jeff Clement, and Brandon Wood, have just not worked out. Not one of these players had success while with the Pirates, and none have seen the majors in 2012. The Pirates hoped that at least one of these guys would figure it all out with the team, but none of them did.
--Player development in the minors has not been that great. The Pirates have one of the top minor league systems in the MLB right now, but a lot of their better prospects are new to the system. Few players, outside of Starling Marte, have really prospered in the Pirates’ system. Players with big time potential, including Tony Sanchez and Stetson Allie, have really struggled to this point. Yes, there is still time for them, but as of now, things are not looking that good. To make matters worse, Josh Bell, the second round pick for the Pirates in 2011, had to undergo surgery on his knee and will miss significant time.
-- Relating to the last point, Pedro Alvarez, considered the savior of the team a couple years ago, played horribly for all of 2011 while battling injuries and demotions to AAA, and got off to a slow start in 2012.
--Jose Bautista used to be a Pirate.
--The team is still losing more games than it is winning.
As you can see, the Pirates have not had luck on their side. A lot (most) of the moves the Pirates have made have been smart baseball decisions and good risks that have simply not worked out. Overbay was coming off a good year with the Blue Jays, and was said to be a great fielder and a good clubhouse leader. Jason Bay was approaching free agency and it was better to get something with a trade than nothing by letting him become a free agent. Brandon Wood was once the #3 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America, and the team was struggling at the shortstop position. Stetson Allie was a top 15 draft prospect, and the team was able to get him in the second round. Pedro Alvarez was an easy choice at #2 in the 2008 draft, even over Eric Hosmer and Buster Posey. Jose Bautista was not anything special for the Pirates. Somehow, none of these decisions have panned out for the Pirates to this point. However, there is still time. We can’t go back and undo the unsuccessful free agent signings, but we can be hopeful for the young players moving forward. Pedro really seems to be heating up as of late, and has six home runs in his first 63 at bats, and is on pace for 42 home runs. While that may not be very likely, it is still nice to see him display his great power. Also, Allie is still young, and definitely has time to turn it around.
Now that we have the negatives out of the way, let’s focus on some of the recent positives:
--The Xavier Nady-Demaso Marte deal has definitely worked for the Pirates. They got Jose Tabata, Jeff Karstens, Daniel McCutchen and Ross Ohlendorf in the deal. Tabata, Karstens, and Ohlendorf all are having or have had success with the team, while Nady and Marte have struggled with injuries.
--Waiver pick ups like Jason Grilli and Chris Resop have had success.
--Andrew McCutchen has emerged as one of the best centerfielders in the game.
--A.J. Burnett and Erik Bedard are off to great starts for their new team, bringing a new aspect of pitching to the Bucs: the strikeout.
--Charlie Morton had a nice bounce back season in 2011.
--Pedro Alvarez is really showing his potential with six home runs in his first 63 at bats.
--GM Neal Huntington pulled off a great trade by acquiring former top prospects James McDonald and Andrew Lambo for reliever Octavio Dotel.
--The team has a good core of young players that are causing excitement for the future.
--Along with the young players on the major league team, top pitching prospects Jameson Taillon and Gerrit Cole are looking very impressive for High-A Bradenton.
The Pirates have had a lot of bad luck over the past two decades, but things are finally starting to look up for the team. With players such as Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez, and Jose Tabata, the team has good young players that are going to be a key part of the future. The pitching has done very well in 2012 and the hitters are starting to break out. After struggling mightily to start the season after a disastrous 2011, Pedro Alvarez has really come alive of late. The team could really use his power bat in the middle of the order moving forward. Also, the Pirates have young pitchers in the minors (Jameson Taillon and Gerrit Cole) that are looking very impressive, and the emergence of shortstop prospect Alen Hanson in Low-A West Virginia (.410 average in 105 at bats) is definitely encouraging. Things are finally looking a little brighter as we move forward.
As I began to write this post, I went in with a mindset that nothing is going right for the Pirates, and that they just could not catch a break. But after listing a lot of the negatives that the team has experienced, I began to realize their are a lot of positives surrounding the team as well. While a lot has gone wrong over the past twenty years, a lot has also gone right in the past couple years. The team took a major step forward in 2011 by winning fifteen more games than they did in 2010, and the team looks impressive so far in 2012. So, when will the Pirates catch a break? After writing this post, I have a feeling that the Buccos’ big break is coming relatively soon.
Over the past two decades, a lot has gone wrong for the Pirates. Here are just a few of the things that haven’t worked out for the Pirates in the past few years:
--Very few free agents have panned out as planned. Signees such as Aki Iwamura, Bobby Crosby, Lyle Overbay, and Matt Diaz all did absolutely horrible for the team, and all lasted no more than one year on the roster. Even in 2012, Rod Barajas and Clint Barmes are really struggling at the plate and have not played stellar defense. Generally, free agent signings have not worked in the Pirates’ favor recently.
--Major trades have not panned out either. All the Pirates have left in the system from the Jason Bay trade is reliever Bryan Morris. Nothing has come from the Jack Wilson-Ian Snell trade, and the Freddy Sanchez trade has yet to pay any dividends with Tim Alderson still coming out of the bullpen for the AA team.
--The risks that the Pirates have made on former top prospects, such as Andy LaRoache, Sean Gallagher, Hayden Penn, Jeff Clement, and Brandon Wood, have just not worked out. Not one of these players had success while with the Pirates, and none have seen the majors in 2012. The Pirates hoped that at least one of these guys would figure it all out with the team, but none of them did.
--Player development in the minors has not been that great. The Pirates have one of the top minor league systems in the MLB right now, but a lot of their better prospects are new to the system. Few players, outside of Starling Marte, have really prospered in the Pirates’ system. Players with big time potential, including Tony Sanchez and Stetson Allie, have really struggled to this point. Yes, there is still time for them, but as of now, things are not looking that good. To make matters worse, Josh Bell, the second round pick for the Pirates in 2011, had to undergo surgery on his knee and will miss significant time.
-- Relating to the last point, Pedro Alvarez, considered the savior of the team a couple years ago, played horribly for all of 2011 while battling injuries and demotions to AAA, and got off to a slow start in 2012.
--Jose Bautista used to be a Pirate.
--The team is still losing more games than it is winning.
As you can see, the Pirates have not had luck on their side. A lot (most) of the moves the Pirates have made have been smart baseball decisions and good risks that have simply not worked out. Overbay was coming off a good year with the Blue Jays, and was said to be a great fielder and a good clubhouse leader. Jason Bay was approaching free agency and it was better to get something with a trade than nothing by letting him become a free agent. Brandon Wood was once the #3 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America, and the team was struggling at the shortstop position. Stetson Allie was a top 15 draft prospect, and the team was able to get him in the second round. Pedro Alvarez was an easy choice at #2 in the 2008 draft, even over Eric Hosmer and Buster Posey. Jose Bautista was not anything special for the Pirates. Somehow, none of these decisions have panned out for the Pirates to this point. However, there is still time. We can’t go back and undo the unsuccessful free agent signings, but we can be hopeful for the young players moving forward. Pedro really seems to be heating up as of late, and has six home runs in his first 63 at bats, and is on pace for 42 home runs. While that may not be very likely, it is still nice to see him display his great power. Also, Allie is still young, and definitely has time to turn it around.
Now that we have the negatives out of the way, let’s focus on some of the recent positives:
--The Xavier Nady-Demaso Marte deal has definitely worked for the Pirates. They got Jose Tabata, Jeff Karstens, Daniel McCutchen and Ross Ohlendorf in the deal. Tabata, Karstens, and Ohlendorf all are having or have had success with the team, while Nady and Marte have struggled with injuries.
--Waiver pick ups like Jason Grilli and Chris Resop have had success.
--Andrew McCutchen has emerged as one of the best centerfielders in the game.
--A.J. Burnett and Erik Bedard are off to great starts for their new team, bringing a new aspect of pitching to the Bucs: the strikeout.
--Charlie Morton had a nice bounce back season in 2011.
--Pedro Alvarez is really showing his potential with six home runs in his first 63 at bats.
--GM Neal Huntington pulled off a great trade by acquiring former top prospects James McDonald and Andrew Lambo for reliever Octavio Dotel.
--The team has a good core of young players that are causing excitement for the future.
--Along with the young players on the major league team, top pitching prospects Jameson Taillon and Gerrit Cole are looking very impressive for High-A Bradenton.
The Pirates have had a lot of bad luck over the past two decades, but things are finally starting to look up for the team. With players such as Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez, and Jose Tabata, the team has good young players that are going to be a key part of the future. The pitching has done very well in 2012 and the hitters are starting to break out. After struggling mightily to start the season after a disastrous 2011, Pedro Alvarez has really come alive of late. The team could really use his power bat in the middle of the order moving forward. Also, the Pirates have young pitchers in the minors (Jameson Taillon and Gerrit Cole) that are looking very impressive, and the emergence of shortstop prospect Alen Hanson in Low-A West Virginia (.410 average in 105 at bats) is definitely encouraging. Things are finally looking a little brighter as we move forward.
As I began to write this post, I went in with a mindset that nothing is going right for the Pirates, and that they just could not catch a break. But after listing a lot of the negatives that the team has experienced, I began to realize their are a lot of positives surrounding the team as well. While a lot has gone wrong over the past twenty years, a lot has also gone right in the past couple years. The team took a major step forward in 2011 by winning fifteen more games than they did in 2010, and the team looks impressive so far in 2012. So, when will the Pirates catch a break? After writing this post, I have a feeling that the Buccos’ big break is coming relatively soon.
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