Should the Pirates Re-Sign Marlon Byrd?

For most of the 2013 season, the Pirates had a hole in their lineup at right field.  The team tried to fill this hole internally, with options like Josh Harrison, Brandon Inge, Garrett Jones, Andrew Lambo, Alex Presley, Jose Tabata, and Travis Snider.  Harrison will never be able to be a major league starter, Inge should never be mentioned again, and Presley never regained his 2011 form before being shipped to Minnesota along with Duke Welker in the Justin Morneau trade.  Jones wasn't the same as last year, and was also needed in the first base platoon, and Lambo never received much of a chance to prove himself.  This left Jose Tabata and Travis Snider as the two options who gave the Pirates the most hope to fill that hole in right field.  Tabata quietly put together a solid season, arguably the best offensive showing he has had in his time in the majors.  He had a career high .771 OPS, a 119 OPS+ (to put that in perspective, Starling Marte had a 122 OPS+, and Pedro Alvarez had an OPS+ of 116), and also showed more power with a career high .429 SLG and .146 ISO.  The problems with Tabata were that he was injured for much of the season, only posting 341 plate appearances, and was also very inconsistent in the time he did play.  Here is his OPS by month:

April/March: .549

May: .991

June: Did not play

July: .631

August: .851

September/October: .844

As you can see, Tabata's solid season was fueled by a very strong May, and by a great end to the season in the final two months.  With Snider, the Pirates had a former top prospect who was given a chance to play every day from the beginning of the season.  The hope was that he could regain some of the power that once made him the number six prospect in the game before the 2009 season, but after hitting only three homers in 226 at bats in the first half, it became clear that wouldn't happen.  This led to there being a lot of rumors that the Pirates were going to add a right field bat at the July 31st trade deadline, with the options being Alex Rios, Nate Schierholtz, Hunter Pence, Giancarlo Stanton (the Pirates did make a strong push for him), and Marlon Byrd.  However, the trade deadline came and went, and no deal was made.  Rios was eventually sent to the Rangers in August, while the other four stayed put until late August.  On August 28th, the Pirates completed a trade that would send Dilson Herrera and Victor Black to the Mets in exchange for Marlon Byrd and John Buck, along with $250K from the Mets.  The Pirates were making a playoff push, and acquiring Byrd filled the hole that the Pirates were trying to fill the entire year.  

Byrd's time with the Pirates was very successful, as he put up a line of .318/.357/.486 in 107 at bats, along with three home runs and a .843 OPS.  Byrd also performed well in the playoffs, posting a .982 OPS and hitting a crucial home run in the Wild Card game against the Reds.  So, with the Pirates not having a definite option in right field heading into 2014, it would make sense for the team to re-sign Marlon Byrd, right?  Not necessarily.

Byrd's time in Pittsburgh was great, providing both offense and defense, as well as being a positive influence in the clubhouse.  However, there are a few reasons why the Pirates should be hesitant to re-sign Byrd this offseason.  These reasons include questions as to whether he can repeat his performance, the price he will command, and the other internal options that the Pirates have.  Here we will go into a little more depth about these reasons to avoid signing Marlon Byrd for the 2014 season.

Can Byrd Repeat His Performance?

Statistically, 2013 was the best year of Marlon Byrd's career,  with career highs in home runs, OPS, OPS+, WAR, and wRC+.  That's good for Byrd, but it came in his age 35 season, while most players reach their prime around ages 27-30.  Also, this stellar year came after the worst year of Byrd's career, where he posted a .488 OPS in 143 at bats, managing a WAR of -0.5.  Byrd saw his BABIP jump to .353 in 2013, which is much higher than his career number of .325, which is influenced by this season.  Byrd struck out more and walked less this year, which is always a red flag, especially for a player who is entering his late 30's.  His home run to fly ball ratio was excessively higher than his career number, with a 16.4% ratio in 2013, and 9.3% career number, which explained his increase in power.  Also, you can't forget his suspension for a performance enhancing drug in 2012 (which he maintains was used for medical purposes, not baseball).  All of these facts make it hard for me to believe that Byrd will be able to repeat this performance in 2014, and that he was a little lucky this season.  I'm not the only one who thinks this, as the Steamer projection from Fangraphs and steamerprojection.com have Byrd posting a .735 OPS in 2014.  With the amount of money he is likely to receive in a new contract, would that production be worth it for the Pirates?

How Much Will It Take To Sign Byrd?

Byrd won't be receiving a qualifying offer, which is up to $14.1 million this season, but he will still come fairly expensive this offseason.  The free agent market for outfielders this season will be affected by the extension given to Hunter Pence at the end September, where he was given a five year, $90 million deal.  There are four or five outfielders that will be ranked ahead of Byrd this offseason, with those players being Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Beltran, Shin-Soo Choo, with Nelson Cruz being in a similar range with Byrd.  Deals given to those players could also drive the market price up for Byrd, forging a price tag that is far above what he is really worth.  I would expect to see Byrd signing for over $10 million with how the current market is, especially if teams act quick to avoid a bidding war, which is something that the Pirates have done in recent years (think Russell Martin and Clint Barmes).  If you think that price is too high, remember that Shane Victorino was signed to a three year, $39 million contract before 2013 after posting a .704 OPS.  The Pirates have enough room in their payroll to give Byrd that kind of contract, but that money would be better used to bring in a first baseman or to sign another player to an extension, like Marte, Alvarez, or even Gerrit Cole.

Internal Options

The Pirates do still have some internal options they could use to take over the right field position.  As I mentioned above, Jose Tabata put together a very nice season in 2013, possibly the best of his career.  He was inconsistent, but once he was receiving consistent playing time in the final two months, he was able to provide a lot of offense for the playoff push.  It is worth mentioning that Tabata will be playing the majority of the 2014 season at age 25, and that he has never spent a full season in the majors.  He will be making $3 million in 2014, and it may be wise to see what the Pirates have in a young player who was such a vital part of their future only a few years ago.  Another player the Pirates could give a chance to is Andrew Lambo.  Lambo, the number 49 prospect in baseball heading into 2009, was largely forgotten about heading into the 2013 season, but he brought himself back into the spotlight after hitting 33 home runs across AA, AAA, and the majors this year.  Lambo started out hot in AA, but there were questions as to whether he could continue this production at higher levels, as he spent parts of six seasons at AA.  He answered that question by continuing his performance at AAA, posting an even higher OPS at the level (.933) compared to AA (.910).  He was called up to the majors in late August, and it seemed like he was going to be the starting right fielder, but the team traded for Marlon Byrd soon after, and Lambo never received regular playing time.  Lambo would provide the Pirates with another potential power bat in their lineup, and could also get on base at a good rate.  If the Pirates don't like the idea of starting either Tabata or Lambo full time, they could also use Tabata against lefties and Lambo against righties.  Lambo destroyed righties in the minors this year, posting a .944 OPS against them, but Tabata actually hit better against righties this year, as well.  Tabata has slightly better career numbers against lefties, so you would hope that he could produce well in his platoon role.
The third internal option the Pirates could have at some point in the 2014 season is Gregory Polanco.  Polanco is currently the number two prospect in the system behind Jameson Taillon, and one could make an argument for Polanco being ahead of Taillon, and is also ranked as the 13th best prospect in the game by Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com.  Polanco didn't have the same success that he had at the plate in 2012, but he still put up a solid season at higher levels, with a line of .285/.356/.434, with 12 home runs, 38 stolen bases, and a .791 OPS.  Polanco is a true five-tool talent, with the ability to hit for average and power, along with a plus arm, plus-plus speed and a plus-plus glove in center.  Like Marte, Polanco is good enough defensively in center field to move McCutchen to a corner spot, but that isn't going to happen so Polanco will be used in right when he reaches the majors.  The big question is when will Polanco be ready?  He was in a similar situation as Marte was coming into 2012, and Marte was called up in July, which could be used as a good timeframe for Polanco.


Once again, Marlon Byrd was great in his time with the Pirates.  The Pirates have already shown interest in re-signing him, which wouldn't be a terrible move, but it wouldn't be the right move.  The market price to sign Byrd this offseason will be driven up by recent signings like Hunter Pence, and could rise even more with the signings of other free agent outfielders.  Also, the Pirates have some talented internal options with Jose Tabata and Andrew Lambo, both of whom deserve chances to prove themselves at the major league level.  The Pirates have the number 13 prospect in baseball with Gregory Polanco, and he could be ready to contribute to the major league team at some point in 2014.  The Pirates could very well get more production out of their internal options than Marlon Byrd could provide them in 2014, and at a much cheaper price.  Although Byrd put up All-Star numbers in 2013, it is very unlikely he repeats those numbers, and the Pirates will be better off letting him sign with another team and starting the season with Tabata and/or Lambo in right field, with Polanco waiting in the wings.

Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45, or in the comment section below.