Before the All-Star break, McCutchen was having a great season, hitting for a .291/.390/.505 line with 14 home runs and an .895 OPS. However, he had a bad slump after this, with a .216/.330/.392 line, along with nine home runs. This gave him a .259/.364/.456 line with 23 home runs and an .820 OPS for the season. He had career bests in home runs, RBI, and walks, but also had career worsts in strikeouts, average, and on-base percentage. His on-base percentage was actually only one point worse than the previous two seasons, so that’s not a concern.
Most of his numbers are similar to the career numbers that he has put up, and his OPS increased from last year. His slugging percentage was also just below his career number of .458, even though he had a career high in home runs. It was good to see Cutch leading the team in home runs (even though you don’t want 23 home runs to lead the team), but many people think that his slump happened because he was swinging for the fences. Fortunately, that may not have had too much of an effect. He got on-base just as frequently as he has in the past and also increased his OPS and run producing ability, so his season should not be viewed as a disappointment. His WAR, which is a player’s Wins Above Replacement and is used to find a player’s overall value, improved to 5.5 this year, which is up from 4.0 last year.
A major reason for this improvement was the great defense he played this year, after struggling defensively in his first two years. McCutchen’s defensive WAR was -0.2 in 2009 and -0.4 in 2010, meaning he cost the Pirates 0.6 games in his first two years because of his defense. That doesn’t seem like a lot, but it means a bench player would have played better defense. In 2011, his defensive WAR improved to 0.7, which is a huge increase from 2010. His fielding percentage was slightly below the league average in center field, but his range factor per nine innings of 2.81 was far above the league average of 2.55. Cutch has some of the best speed in the MLB, and that will always help you in the outfield. However, he hasn’t taken advantage of his speed on the base paths, resulting in only 23 stolen bases in 33 attempts in 2011. If you are one of the fastest players in the league, you need to be stealing more bases. McCutchen should always have the green light when he is on base, which should result in at least 30-40 stolen bases a year, if not more.
Now back to extending McCutchen’s contract. There has been talk of a contract that would be around six years for about $50 Million, which would buy out his arbitration years and three years of free agency. The Pirates have the resources to make this deal, and there should be no hesitation on the team’s part to sign there best player. He is a major piece in the rebuilding process and in the team’s future, and the team cannot risk losing him once he hits the free agent market.
Another interesting stat that I saw on PiratesProspects was that when the Pirates won this year, McCutchen batted .337 with a 1.076 OPS, and when they lost, he had a .198 average and an OPS of .618. Clearly, the team plays better when McCutchen plays better. If he can play next year the way he played the first half of the 2011 season, McCutchen will be one of the best center fielders in the majors, and will provide a big boost to the offense and defense. Signing him will not only satisfy the fan base, but it will also give the Pirates a player that can help the team get back into competing for the playoffs for years to come.
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