Kevin Youkilis trade rumors seem to be heating up by the day, and many people say a deal could be made very soon. The Pirates have been involved in these rumors, even though they were also rumored to be out of the trade talks (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/06/kevin-youkilis-rumors-sunday.html), and last night they were even mentioned as the second most likely team to land Youkilis (same link as above). In my opinion, the Pirates should definitely pursue Youkilis. He's a career .286/.388/.487 hitter (.874 OPS) in the nine seasons he has played for the Red Sox, but he probably won't come near those numbers for the Pirates. This year, he has a line of .225/.311/.359, with four homers and a .670 OPS. A reason why I think the Pirates should go after a player like this is that players who have come to the Pirates have the AL East in the last couple years have had a lot of success. These players include A.J. Burnett and Derrek Lee. The better comparison would be Lee because of the similar positions, so let's compare their situations.
Derrek Lee
Before Derrek Lee came to the Pirates last year, he was a member of the Baltimore Orioles, who play in the AL East, arguably the best division in the majors. He was hitting for a .246/.302/.404 line with 12 homers in 334 at bats, with a .706 OPS. He was traded to the Pirates, who play in the NL Central, arguably the weakest division in baseball, on July 31st for minor leaguer Aaron Baker, and was quickly inserted into the Pirates lineup. After a great Pirates debut where he hit two home runs, Lee went on to hit for a .337/.398/.584 line for the Pirates, with seven homers and a .982 OPS in 101 at bats.
His improvements: +91 points in average, +96 points in OBP, +180 points in slugging percentage, and +.276 points in OPS.
Kevin Youkilis
Youkilis has not been an everyday player for the Red Sox this year, playing in only 41 of the team's 71 games to this point. His line of .225/.311/.359 with a .670 OPS could be due to him not playing everyday, therefore not getting consistent at bats to work his troubles out. It seems certain that Youkilis will be traded at this point, so a change of scenary could help a lot, along with playing everyday.
If the Pirates were to land him, he would, or at least should, be made the everyday first baseman. The move to possibly the easiest division in baseball after spending nine years in the hardest division would also help Youkilis to improve his numbers. Let's assume that all these factors that could help him improve, do in fact make him improve. It is very doubtful that he improves as much as Lee did, but Youkilis is only a year removed from a season where he had an .833 OPS. Let's assume that Youkilis' average, OBP, and slugging percentage improve by half of what Lee's did.
His hypothetical impovements: +46 points in average, +48 points in OBP, +90 points in slugging percentage. These improvements would make his hitting line with the Pirates be .271/.359/.449. That's good for an .808 OPS.
If the Pirates acquired Youkilis from the Red Sox and his numbers improved by half of what Derrek Lee's did in 2011 for the Pirates in the same change of divisions, Youkilis would be the Pirates' second best hitter, and easily an above average major league hitter.
Also, Youkilis' career line against the NL is .296/.375/.521 with an .896 OPS, 21 HRs, and 79 RBI in 443 at bats. His OPS against teams in the NL Central are as follows:
Cubs: 1.358 OPS
Reds: 1.200 OPS
Astros: .948 OPS
Brewers: 1.241 OPS
Cardinals: 1.126 OPS
Clearly, Youkilis has absolutely destroyed the NL Central (except the Pirates, .403 OPS.) A move to this division seems like it could really help Youkilis recover from his season long slump.
At Pirates Prospects, they do a series of trade values for potential trade targets and looked at what it would take to get Youkilis (that article can be found here: http://www.piratesprospects.com/2012/06/trade-values-kevin-youkilis.html). In the article, they find his trade value to be a lower level hitter or a relief pitcher, along with Boston paying about $5 million of Youkilis' salary. In this case, why not take a chance on Youkilis? The offense has been absolutely horrible, and Youkilis has had a great career. Derrek Lee came over in a similar situation last year, and had great success for the team. If Youkilis improved by what half of Lee did, Youkilis would be the second best hitter on the Pirates. With his success that Youkilis has had in the past against the NL and especially against the NL Central, Youkilis' numbers for the Pirates could be even better than .271/.359/.449. For a lower level prospect, that's a great deal that the Pirates should not pass up on.
Any questions or comments can be sent to me on twitter @mikemaw45.
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