Trade Analysis: Joel Hanrahan to Boston

After waiting a few days for the deal to be finalized, the Pirates and Red Sox completed a deal that sent closer Joel Hanrahan and infielder Brock Holt to the Red Sox in exchange for OF/1B Jerry Sands, reliever Mark Melancon, RHP Stolmy Pimentel, and infielder Ivan DeJesus Jr.

What the Pirates Get:
The Pirates received two players that should definitely be on their major league roster in 2013, another player who has a chance to be on the roster at some point, and a starting pitcher that should start in AA.
The two almost-guaranteed major leaguers are Jerry Sands and Mark Melancon, with DeJesus Jr. most likely starting in AAA and Pimentel starting in the AA rotation.
Jerry Sands: Sands is a player who has had a lot of success at the AAA level, with a career .288/.362/.552 batting line, with 55 home runs and 195 RBI in 822 at bats.  Those are fantastic power numbers, but they also are coming from the Pacific Coast League, where traditionally players' power numbers are inflated.  Still, 55 homers and 195 RBI in only 822 at bats is very impressive.  Sands' strikeout rate is somewhat high at 20.66% in the minors, but he draws a good amount of walks and puts up a good OBP.  Defensively, Sands is best suited for right field, where his decent speed and arm would play best.  He also plays first base, and has the chance to be an above average defender.  Sands should at least get the chance to platoon with Garrett Jones and/or Travis Snider, as he has a .904 OPS against lefties in 79 at bats at the major league level.
Mark Melancon: Melancon has had success at the major league level before, most of it coming in 2011 when he saved 20 games for the Astros.  In 2012, he seemingly took a step backwards, posting a 6.20 ERA.  But if you look closer, he had good secondary numbers, with a 8.2/2.4 K/BB ratio.  The number that really stands out is his 1.60 HR/9 ratio in 2012, far above his career 0.9 number, showing that some bad luck led to his inflated ERA.  Melancon has good stuff, with a great two-pitch mix including a mid 90's fastball and plus curveball.  He has displayed good control in the past, and the problems he has experienced seem to stem from his mentality.
Ivan DeJesus Jr.: DeJesus is a very similar player to Brock Holt, the prospect the Red Sox received in this deal.  They both play middle infield, but both will most likely end up at second base because of defensive problems at shortstop.  DeJesus will put up a lower average than Holt, but gets on base at a similar rate and will hit a few more homers.  Both will probably steal about 10-15 bases a year as a starter, but both are better served as a good bench player or utility infielder.  If I had to choose between the two, I would choose Brock Holt.
Stolmy Pimentel:  Pimentel has struggled at the AA level in his age 21 and 22 seasons, with a 5.96 ERA in 166 innings, but has the ability to perform much better.  He has shown good control at times and has a decent strikeout rate during his minor league career.  His fastball that sits around 92-94, but he struggles to throw the pitch with consistent command.  He combines his fastball with a changeup that comes in around 80 MPH, and a slider that ranges anywhere from the mid to high 80's.  Both of the pitches have the chance to become plus pitches, with his changeup already rated as plus by some outlets.

What the Red Sox Get:
The Red Sox brought in a guy who has already told that he will be the team's closer in 2013, and a utility infielder that is basically interchangeable with Ivan DeJesus Jr.
Joel Hanrahan: Since he was converted to closer to begin the 2011 season, Joel Hanrahan has been one of the best closers in the majors, becoming a two time All-Star and converting 76 of 84 saves in that time.  The Hammer, as he has come to be known, has a power fastball, sitting in the mid-90's, and occasionally reaching 98-99 MPH.  Along with that is a plus slider that sits in the upper 80's and induces a lot of swings and misses, making for a great two pitch combo.  But, his control disappeared in 2012, going from a 2.1 BB/9 in 2011 to a 5.4 BB/9 in 2012.  He was still effective, but not as effective as many may think.  His ERA in 2012 was 2.72, but his FIP was 4.45.  Still, with the two pitch combo that Hanrahan has, he is a great addition to any team.
Brock Holt: I already covered most of what Holt brings to the table in my analysis of DeJesus.  Holt is a middle infielder who should end up at second down the road if ever given an opportunity to start, but is best served as a utility infielder.  He has hit for a good average at all levels in the minors, getting on base at a good rate but with no power.  He does hit for a lot of doubles, and has good speed on the base paths.  In 65 at bats at the major league level in 2012, Holt hit for a .292/.329/.354 line with a .682 OPS.

Who Wins?
Both teams got what they were looking for in this deal.  Basically, the deal was really Joel Hanrahan for Jerry Sands, Mark Melancon, and Stolmy Pimentel, as Holt and DeJesus somewhat cancel each other out.  So, Boston brought in a proven closer who will sure up the back-end of their bullpen, moving Andrew Bailey into a set-up role.  The deal would work more in Boston's favor if they could sign Hanrahan to a few extra years, as he becomes a free agent at the end of the 2013 season.
Pittsburgh acquired a potential average to above average everyday player in Jerry Sands.  He has a good deal of power and should be a great platoon option against lefties with a chance to eventually take over everyday duties at first or right field.  Pimentel could develop into a number four or five starter, but the real wild card in this deal that could make this a win for the Pirates is Mark Melancon.  When the Pirates brought in Hanrahan in 2009, he had a 7.71 ERA, but his secondary numbers showed that he was much better than that.  The same situation is present with Melancon in this trade, with a 6.20 ERA but much better secondary numbers.  He has a great two pitch mix with his fastball and curveball, not as good as Hanrahan's fastball slider combo, but still very effective.  Neal Huntington, the Pirates GM, and pitching coach Ray Searage both have good histories with relievers, making it a better chance that Melancon succeeds for the Pirates.

The Red Sox and the Pirates could both see benefits in this trade.  It would be great for the Red Sox if Hanrahan continued to be one of the best closers in the game, and be made even better if they could sign him to a few more years before he hits free agency (judging by this offseason, I would expect a three year deal worth $39 million).  The trade could tip in the Pirates favor if Sands becomes an above average everyday player, and even more so if Melancon becomes the next Joel Hanrahan, which he has the potential to do with his new team.

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