At the time of this post, the Pirates have 58 games remaining on their schedule, giving members of the starting rotation anywhere between 10-12 starts from now until the playoffs if they remain healthy. Recently, fan favorite pitcher A.J. Burnett has gone down with a forearm injury that will put him out for an estimated four weeks. This leaves an open spot in the five-man rotation for the at least half of those 10-12 starts, with the other four spots currently being filled by Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, Charlie Morton, and Jeff Locke. With the Pirates currently 5.5 games back from the Cardinals in the NL Central, it will be vital for the Pirates to fill the rotation with a pitcher that can provide quality innings and be dependable enough down the stretch that team will at least still have a chance to win the division and avoid a one game playoff.
Opening the season, it looked as though the Pirates would have a lot of depth in the rotation, with top prospects Jameson Taillon and Nick Kingham having the chance earn a rotation spot at some point during the season, as well as pitchers like Brandon Cumpton and Casey Sadler having the ability to step in for the team in case of injury. When Charlie Morton returned to the rotation in late May, the team moved Vance Worley to the bullpen, giving the team six major league starters at their disposal. However, the Pirates were hit hard by injuries, with Kingham and Cumpton both undergoing Tommy John Surgery, and Taillon and Sadler both likely out for the season with injuries of their own. The Taillon injury was a particularly large blow to the Pirates, as the former number two overall pick was looking great in his return from Tommy John surgery, only to go down with an unrelated injury. Worely was recently designated for assignment after the trade deadline acquisitions, and long story short, the rotation depth that looked so promising to start the season has been almost completely depleted. The Pirates addressed this need in two separate moves ahead of the trade deadline, picking up Joe Blanton in a minor deal from the Royals and J.A. Happ from the Mariners in exchange for AAA pitcher Adrian Sampson, a guy who also looked like good depth after a strong start to the season.
With Burnett out for at least four weeks, who is the best option to step into the rotation and give the Pirates the quality innings they need to stay in the division race? We look at five options for the team and what they can offer to see which pitcher would provide the most value for the Pirates.
J.A. Happ
Happ, a lefty, is the guy the Pirates are going with as of now, as he is scheduled to start Tuesday night's game against Jake Arrieta and the Cubs. Happ has been a below average Major League pitcher since 2011, and in 2015 he has a 4.64 ERA in 21 games. This includes 20 starts, but it is worth noting that he has slightly better FIP and xFIP numbers at 4.07 and 4.03, respectively. In comparison, Charlie Morton's FIP and xFIP are 4.18 and 3.92, meaning Happ wouldn't necessarily be a downgrade from what's already in our rotation. However, A.J. Burnett's numbers here are 3.07 and 3.45, and because he is the player Happ is replacing, his production does represent a sizable decrease in production for the team. Some numbers would suggest the Happ has been slightly unlucky this year, with a decreased Left On Base (LOB) rate from his career numbers, and a .319 BABIP compared to .292 on his career. However, while he has a solid walk rate at 2.7 BB/9, he has been very hittable this year. His Hits/9 rate is at 10.0 and his line drive percentage is up 4.2% from his career numbers. That being said, he's not allowing more home runs than usual, and he's keeping the ball on the ground more this year, and he will benefit from the Pirates' defensive shifts. ZIPS has him at a 4.32 ERA for the remainder of the season, which is where I'd expect him to be given his advanced numbers. Happ has had some success with his slider in the past couple of years, but doesn't have a real go-to pitch and lacks upside. Basically with Happ, you know you're getting a 4.00-4.50 ERA without much upside, but he shouldn't be much worse than that. It also helps that he is a lefty, considering the Cardinals and Cubs have some strong lefty bats in their lineups.
Joe Blanton
The Pirates got Blanton for basically nothing, but this shouldn't be considered a "why not?" move because it was followed by Vance Worley being designated for assignment when Worley probably would have been the best option of this group to take Burnett's spot in the rotation. Blanton is a 34 year old righty that missed all of 2014 due to injury and before that hadn't been anything more than an average pitcher since he had a 3.53 ERA in 2005 as a rookie with Oakland. Surprisingly, Blanton returned in 2015 and has been relatively decent, pitching to a 3.92 ERA in 16 games, including four starts. He has been much stronger out of the bullpen, with a 2.88 ERA compared to a 5.30 ERA in his four starts. His K/BB ratio has been great this year, at 8.7/1.4 per nine innings, and a relatively high H/9 rate puts his WHIP at 1.19. His FIP and xFIP numbers indicate that he has been even better than his ERA, with those numbers being at 3.49 and 3.16. His advanced stats are mostly around his career norms, which means there's a chance he can continue this solid level of production. He sits around 90 MPH with his fastball and has an average repertoire, so he relies on location in order to be successful. His ground ball rate of 46.9% this year should work well with the Pirates defense, and with the help of Ray Searage and given Blanton's history, we can expect him to be in the 3.90-4.20 range for his ERA for the remainder of the season. However, his 5.30 ERA in his four starts is a red flag that can't be ignored, and his WHIP in those starts is 1.34 compared to 1.08 out of the bullpen. Blanton will see the most success in a Pirates uniform out of the bullpen, as he has not been successful out of the rotation for a very long time.
Radhames Liz
Liz has had a very interesting professional career: he signed as an amateur free agent in 2003 by the Orioles out of the Dominican Republic, began his career in 2005, made his major league debut in 2007, was listed as a top 100 prospect in 2008, moved to the Padres organization in 2010, pitched in the KBO from 2011-2013, played for the Blue Jays organization in 2014, and finally was signed by the Pirates for $1 million for the 2015 season. He began the season in the Pirates bullpen, pitching in 11 games with a 3.63 ERA, but a very high WHIP (1.73) due to control and command issues led him to be demoted to AAA. At AAA, he has been extremely successful, mostly as a member of the Indianapolis Indians rotation. He has posted a 1.02 ERA in 44.1 innings, with a much improved 0.97 WHIP. He is limiting hits and while his command hasn't been great, he has lowered his BB/9 rate to 3.0, and is striking out 10.4 batters per nine innings. Liz has always thrown hard, averaging 94.1 MPH on his fastball in his time in the majors this year, but he will only find success when he is able to locate that pitch. MLB hitters can sit on his fastball, leading to a 32.7% line drive rate with the Pirates this year, and he doesn't have a high ground ball rate. The best route the Pirates can take with Liz for now is to continue to allow him to refine his control as a starter in the minors, and if he can improve his mechanics enough to warrant a promotion back to the majors, he can provide a few spots starts if necessary. He can also provide a strong arm out of the bullpen, but right now he would be too risky to throw into the major league rotation.
Chris Volstad
Volstad was seen as another reclamation project for the Pirates when they signed him in the offseason, as he was a former top 100 prospect that had success for half a season during his rookie year in 2008. Volstad has pitched almost the entire season at the AAA level outside of two innings in the Pirates bullpen, and has seen some levels of success. He has a 3.15 ERA in 111.1 innings to go along with a solid walk rate, but has been relatively hittable. His 1.30 WHIP isn't great, and an extremely low home run rate suggests he may be having some luck and will be due for some regression. He's had a high ground ball rate in his career in the majors due to using a sinking fastball as his main pitch, but that pitch has always been hittable for major leaguers. Volstad's lack of success at the major league level has been due to the fact that he has been extremely hittable, and he hasn't done enough to show that won't be a problem if he gets a promotion. At this point in his career, Volstad should only see starts for the Pirates if there is no other starter available.
Tyler Glasnow
Disclaimer: This option is extremely unlikely. Glasnow is the Pirates' top prospect, and has only made one start at the AAA, where he went 5.1 innings, allowing 4 runs, 1 earned, on 9 hits while walking one batter. Glasnow was dominant in his time at AA this season, with a 2.43 ERA in 63 innings over 12 starts. That ERA is actually a little inflated after a start on May 17th where he was pitching with an injured ankle and allowed 5 earned runs, and his FIP was at an even better 1.96 at AA. Throughout his minor league career, Glasnow has had very high strikeout rates and very low hit rates, and that was no different this year, with 11.7 K/9 and 5.9 H/9 rates this season. What has been most encouraging, however, has been the decreased walk rate at 2.7 BB/9 at AA this season, as control and command of his pitches has been the main concern of his as he progressed. We can assume that the Pirates are going to stay conservative with Glasnow as they have been with most prospects, and considering Gerrit Cole received 13 starts at the AAA level before being promoted to the majors, Glasnow will probably remain in AAA until around May-June 2016. Still, Glasnow has made a lot of progress this year in his weaker areas, including the development of his changeup, and given that he is such a rare talent, it isn't out of the question that we see Glasnow in the majors this season. If Glasnow were put in the major league rotation right now, we would most likely see him pitch to a 3.50-4.00 ERA, where he would look dominant in some starts and lose all his command in other starts. We've seen guys like Jose Fernandez come up from the lower minors and be dominant from day one, so it also wouldn't be a surprise if Glasnow came up and dominated right away as well. However, when asked about this subject GM Neal Huntington said it is very doubtful that we see Glasnow in the majors this year, which basically means he won't be in the majors this year. That will probably be the smart choice, as Glasnow is making great progress right now and you don't want to interfere with his development.
Given this information, the best bet the Pirates have to fill their current rotation void is... J.A. Happ. He may not be flashy, but he will deliver a predictable 4.00-4.50 ERA, with a slight chance to be better if pitching coach Ray Searage can work his magic again. Joe Blanton has been good out of the bullpen this year and would be the second best option, but should remain in a spot where he has had success. Liz could also provide good arm strength out of the bullpen, but is too erratic to be in the major league rotation, and Volstad is too hittable to contribute to a major league pennant race. Tyler Glasnow could have the most success right now, but that comes with the risk of taking away from his development, which is not something that the Pirates have shown they are willing to do. A.J. Burnett will optimistically return after four weeks, with five or six weeks being more likely, and the team will hope for the continued health of the other four members of the rotation. Gerrit Cole would be in contention for Cy Young if Zack Greinke didn't have an inhuman 1.41 ERA, Francisco Liriano is the a true number two starter that can step up and have absolutely dominant games, and Charlie Morton and Jeff Locke have pitched to respectable 3.92 and 3.87 xFIP's, respectively. With a solid four man rotation, the Pirates shouldn't be too negatively affected by a 4.30 or so ERA by Happ, especially if A.J. can return before the season's end.
Any questions or comments can be sent to be on twitter @micmaw, or in the comment section below.
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