Many people are saying that the Pirates are going into the 2012 season with four guaranteed starting pitchers, who are Jeff Karstens, James McDonald, Charlie Morton, and Kevin Correia. While I’m not going to disagree that these four appear to be locks in the rotation, I will still say that I don’t think one of them should be a lock. Karstens, McDonald, and Morton all deserve to be in the rotation, but I don’t think Correia should have a definitive spot. He did make the All-Star team, but he didn’t deserve to make it. The main reason why he did make it was that he was near the leaders in wins for the NL, so people thought he was warranted a spot. However, his ERA going into the All-Star break was 4.01. That isn’t bad, but it is not All-Star worthy. What I am trying to say here is that wins do not matter nearly as much as ERA, especially for a team like the Pirates. Usually it is tough for pitchers on a bad team to get wins because of lack of run support, a big example being Paul Maholm, so they can pile up a large amount of losses even if they are pitching well. Correia somehow came out on the other end of this, winning many games while not pitching great because the offense was scoring runs when he was on the mound. Also, Correia pitched absolutely terrible at PNC Park this year, with a 7.71 ERA in 12 games at home versus a 2.64 in 14 games on the road. He has never been an above average pitcher in the major leagues, so don’t think he can lead the staff just because he led the team in wins. I’m not saying he shouldn’t be in the rotation, I’m just saying he shouldn’t be a lock.
An internal candidate that I think should definitely be given a chance is Brad Lincoln. He didn’t have a great year in AAA, but was called up to the Pirates for good in August, where he initially pitched out of the bullpen. Eventually, he was moved to the rotation because of injuries to the other starters, and pitched respectably in that role. He trailed off at the end of the season, but that may be due to fatigue. He has good upside as a 26 year old, so he should definitely be considered for one of the additions to the rotation.
Another internal candidate for the rotation is Jeff Locke. Locke came up as a September call up after only five starts in AAA, and clearly was not ready for the majors. In his four major league starts, he posted a 6.48 ERA, along with a 1.86 ERA. Those are both terrible numbers, and prove he should not have been in the rotation at all. He’s not really a good option at all for the opening day rotation, but he could be recalled to join the rotation at any time in 2012.
The final internal candidate that I would like to suggest, and I may be the only one who does suggest him, is Daniel McCutchen. The Pirates acquired McCutchen from the Yankees in the Nady/Marte deal as a starter, and has made 15 career starts in the majors. Although he hasn’t done particularly well in those starts (5.45 ERA), he had a solid year out of the bullpen and pitched well when needed in a long relief role. There is only a very slim chance that he will even be considered as an option, but I believe that he at least deserves a look.
There are a lot of options that the Pirates will look at on the free agent market, but they will most likely avoid any high priced players, which includes all type A and type B free agents. Three pitchers that the Pirates should consider are Chris Capuano, Jon Garland, and Rich Harden.
Capuano is a good option because the Pirates do not currently have a lefty starter who is ready to handle a rotation spot in the majors, and a veteran such as Capuano could be a possible fit to fill that void. He’s had decent results in his career, similar to those of Paul Maholm, and he would come at a cheaper price. There’s little doubt that the Pirates will pursue Capuano in some way, but the market is thin on quality lefty starters, so he may be tough to acquire.
Jon Garland is a solid starter, and has pitched well since coming into the National League. He had a very good year in 2010 with the Padres, going 15-12 with a 3.47 ERA, so he would be a good short term addition to the rotation. However, he will also be in high demand, so he will be tough to acquire as well.
With Rich Harden, you have a pitcher who has a lot of upside and great results in the past, but you also have a pitcher who has battled multiple injuries in the past. When healthy, Harden is an above average MLB pitcher who can have an ERA under 3.00, but when unhealthy, he will struggle. Over the past two years, Harden has seen his ERA rise above 5.00, but has also only made 33 starts in that time. The most innings he has logged in a season is 189 in 2004 as a 22 year old, showing that his arm may not be ready to handle a full season of pitching. Still, out of these three pitchers, I believe Harden is the best deal because of his upside. He probably doesn’t have the ability to pitch an entire season, but hopefully some of the pitchers in the minors will be ready to take over when necessary. Although Harden is the best option, Capuano is the most likely of the three to be a Pirate because of his price and the team’s need for a left handed pitcher.
The Pirates have depth in the upper levels of their minor league system, with players who can reach the majors in 2012. Some minor league pitchers that may be able to step up this year and fill a rotation spot are Rudy Owens, Justin Wilson, Jeff Locke, and Kyle McPherson. Coming into 2011, fans were hopeful that Owens would be promoted to the Pirates sometime in the summer and make an immediate impact in the rotation. However, he lost the control he showed in the past that gave him great results, and this caused him to struggle throughout the year. Unless he rediscovers this control, he will not be in the rotation in 2012. If he regains his control, he could be the lefty starter in the Paul Maholm mold that the Pirates are looking for. Much of the same can be said about Jeff Locke, but after an impressive five starts in AAA, he was given the chance to start in the majors. He did not take advantage of this opportunity, but it gave him valuable experience that he will learn from and hopefully approve upon. It may also have him favored for a call up amongst this group because he has already faced major league hitting.
Justin Wilson is an interesting option because he was moved to the bullpen late in the season, where he reportedly reached 99 MPH with his fastball. Because he has great stuff and velocity as a left hander, a permanent switch to the bullpen may be best for him.
Kyle McPherson had a great year between high-A and AA, so should start the 2012 season in AAA. If he continues to improve, he could be in the majors by July and make a good impression in the rotation. But, don’t get your hopes up because the same things were said about Rudy Owens last year, so we have to be careful with our predictions.
The Pirates are going into the off season with what appears to be four locks in the rotation. They will look at free agents and internal options for the final spot. If they look at free agents, the most likely option would be the lefty Chris Capuano. If they stay with a pitcher already in the system, it will be Brad Lincoln. Also, I thought I’d add that #1 draft pick Gerrit Cole has a small chance of making it to the majors this year, but it is very unlikely that he will unless the team is in contention late in the season.
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