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Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Top 30 Prospects: #15-13

15.) Alex Dickerson--1B--21:  Dickerson was drafted in the third round of this year’s draft, and could very well be a big steal.  Coming into the draft, he was rated the #42 best player available by Baseball America, and fell to the Pirates as the 91st pick.  This can be explained because he has a history of back problems, and this may mean he could have been ranked higher than #42 if he was healthy.  So, this means that the Pirates may have gotten 1st round talent with each of their first three picks.  Dickerson hit very well in 150 State College at bats, with a .313/.393/.493 line.  He has a good deal of power potential, and that showed up this year with 16 doubles, but only three home runs.  But, those doubles should turn into homers as he adjusts to using wooden bats.  It is expected that Dickerson will start next year in Bradenton and skip over West Virginia because he was drafted as a college senior, and this means he could rise to the majors relatively quickly, possibly as soon as June 2013.  He has the potential to be an above average hitting first basemen in the majors with 30+ home run power.  This is something the Pirates definitely wanted in their system, and it would be a big boost to the organization if Dickerson continues to perform well.      
OFP: 55 (Solid, Everyday Regular)

14.) Justin Wilson--LHP--24:  Wilson is a similar prospect to Bryan Morris.  Both have good stuff, but they are getting older for being prospects and also started the year in the rotation and ended in the bullpen.  Morris has the higher upside, but Wilson has had the better results.  Wilson started the season pitching very well out of the rotation, with a 2.25 ERA in April, but cooled off over the rest of the season and struggled with his control, a problem that he has had throughout his time in the minors.  He struggles with his control because his pitches have a lot of movement, so they may move out of the strike zone.  He was moved to the bullpen in August, and had some success there, but still struggled with control, allowing ten walks in 14 innings out of the ‘pen.  However, Wilson was throwing in the upper 90’s, even touching 99, which came as a surprise as he was usually hovering around 88-93 MPH while starting.  It is rare to have a lefty reliever touching the upper 90’s with great movement on his pitches, so a permanent move to the bullpen may be a good decision.  He will probably go back to Indianapolis next year, and has a good chance to move up to the majors eventually.  There is still a chance (higher chance than Morris) that he will be in the Indianapolis rotation next year, but I don’t see him as a starter in Pittsburgh, at least not next season.
OFP: 55 (Solid Back-End of Bullpen Pitcher/Back of Rotation)

13.) Jeff Locke--LHP--23:  Locke was a September call-up for the Pirates this year, and had a 6.48 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in four stars.  Both are terrible numbers, and his walk and strikeout numbers have been horrible.  This shows us that he probably wasn’t ready to be called up, especially after only spending a month in AAA.  He started the season in AA and didn’t have too much success, but was able to put up a 4.03 ERA.  Throughout his time in the minors, Locke has put up great K/BB numbers, with a career 8.2/2.4 ratio.   This year, his strikeout numbers were in line with this, but his walks rose to 3.2 per nine innings.  His control led to the less than spectacular numbers he put up this year.  However, he had great success when he was promoted to AAA, and this prompted his September call-up.  The best thing we can hope from Locke at this point is to be a consistent lefty starter in the majors with good control and decent strikeout numbers.  Or in other words, Paul Maholm with more K’s.  He will begin next year in AAA, with a good chance to be recalled at any time.
OFP:  55 (Back of Rotation Pitcher)

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